Tag Archives: North Carolina

Surprising Swing State Polling

SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Polling

Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the July 4th holiday break. The survey results raised eyebrows in several ways.

Morning Consult conducted the studies in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They surveyed voters from July 1-4 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the sampling period was extended to a fifth day, expanding the interview time to July 1-5.

The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). In each case, the respondent universe was selected through a stratified sampling process and the individuals answered the survey questions online.

In each state, the pollsters tested President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and usually a combination of the other independent or minor party candidates, Jill Stein (Green Party), Dr. Cornel West (Independent), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). The pollsters also asked a follow-up question that isolated Biden and Trump in a one-on-one pairing.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis indicated that the debate, contrary to the opinion of many television news pundits and several Democratic officials who are calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race, has changed little in terms of the political horse race among the states that will largely determine the November outcome.

This may or may not be the case, and further research is needed to better determine where the national election stands. Though President Biden was detected as leading in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, over 55 percent from the aggregate seven-state sample stated their belief that he should withdraw from the campaign. This number includes 58 percent responding in such a manner from the Independent segment and 29 percent who self-identify as Democratic participants.

Conversely, former President Trump hit an all-time high in a Pennsylvania survey, as Bloomberg/Morning Consult detected a seven-point advantage when the two presumptive nominees were tested in a head-to-head question. Staying with the Pennsylvania head-to-head, the Trump support number reached 51 percent, which is the only such result for either candidate within the whole seven-state survey series. In two other states, Arizona and Nevada, Trump reached the 48 percent plateau on the head-to-head question. President Biden reached as high as 48 percent in only one state, Michigan, again in response to the head-to-head question.

In Arizona, Trump led Biden by seven percentage points when the independent and minor party candidates were included. His lead dropped to three points in the head-to-head question. The seven points represented an improvement here for Trump, though he has led in all 20 Arizona polls conducted since Jan. 1.

The Georgia numbers still favored Trump but appeared to be down a bit from other recent surveys. As in Arizona, Trump has led in every poll conducted here (17) since the first of this year.

Michigan has been back and forth all year, usually by a point or two. This Bloomberg/ Morning Consult poll, however, stakes Biden to one of his better showings, leading Trump by six points within the multiple candidate field and five in the head-to-head pairing.

Nevada is the third state where Trump has led or been tied in all 2024 surveys (17). In the Bloomberg/MC poll, his numbers are still strong. Within the multiple candidate field, Trump holds a six-point lead as compared to a plus-3 margin in the head-to-head.

North Carolina is another state where Trump continues to poll well. In the Bloomberg/MC study, he leads the multiple candidate field by two points, and three over Biden in the head-to-head. This from a state where he led in only 25 percent of the 2020 polls yet carried the final total by just over a percentage point.

As previously mentioned, Trump scores his best head-to-head number of the cycle (plus-7) in the Bloomberg/MC Pennsylvania poll. From the multiple candidate field, his lead is three percentage points.

Wisconsin is the other state where Biden forges a current lead according to the Bloomberg/MC data. Here, the president has a two-point edge within the multiple candidate field and three over Trump in the head-to-head.

As we have seen, several of the data segments produced unusual patterns, meaning more information is needed to obtain a better post-debate picture of how the electorate is responding. Even though this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, it appears that former President Trump would convert four states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the presidency.

More States in Play

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 3, 2024

President

MORE SWING STATES IN PLAY: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (and possibly Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico)

Recent polling data suggests that several surprising states are becoming competitive. In addition to Minnesota and Virginia, the former of which has been close for weeks and the latter showing dead heat signs within the last 14 days, four more states are now returning tight polling numbers.

As has been the case since the beginning of the year, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada have been reporting strong numbers for former President Donald Trump. In fact, the 19 polls conducted in Arizona since Jan. 1 finds Trump leading in each. The Georgia data projects a similar pattern. There, 16 surveys have been conducted in 2024, again with Trump leading in all. The Nevada numbers report the same pattern as Georgia.

It’s also been common political knowledge that the three key Great Lakes states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, have been in the toss-up category throughout the current year. Recently, the three have all leaned towards Trump, and likely will report an exaggerated trend at least for the short-term post-debate period.

If the Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada trends hold through the election, and Trump converts all three, he would only need one more state of any size to win the national election. Now, it appears several others are coming into the observance realm.

New polling finds the race coming into dead heat territory in Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and New Mexico, all of which have been Democratic strongholds for years.

The last time Maine and New Jersey went for a Republican presidential candidate occurred in 1988, when the states’ electorates supported George H.W. Bush over Michael Dukakis. New Hampshire last voted Republican in 2000 for George W. Bush against Al Gore, while New Mexico supported the latter Bush in 2004 opposite John Kerry. The previously mentioned Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972, while Virginia, like New Mexico, also favored then-President Bush over Kerry 20 years ago.

St. Anselm College on Monday released their latest New Hampshire poll (June 28-29; 1,700 registered New Hampshire voters; online) and sees Trump taking a 44-42-4 percent lead over President Joe Biden and Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

The co/efficient firm tested the New Jersey electorate (June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey voters; live interview & text) and these results also show Trump ahead in an unlikely state, 41-40-7 percent.

The New Mexico data still finds President Biden leading, but barely. The 1892 polling organization (June 19-24; 600 likely New Mexico voters) posts Biden to only a one-point lead, 43-42-8 percent over Trump and Kennedy.

In Minnesota, a place where the two presidential candidates have consistently battled in polls to within three-point margins for most of the year, Emerson College (June 13-18; 1,000 registered Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) recently projected Trump to a one-point edge.

The Critical Insights firm tested the Maine electorate (June 12; 609 registered Maine voters; live interview and online) and found Trump recording a one-point advantage in this state as well, 41-40 percent, with 19 percent going to other candidates. Maine features a Ranked Choice Voting system, so even if Trump manages to secure plurality support in the regular election, he would likely lose in the Ranked Choice rounds.

Fox News conducted the most recent Virginia poll (June 1-3; 1,107 registered Virginia voters; live interview) and this solidly Democratic state, too, turned in a ballot test within dead-heat range. According to the Fox results, Biden would hold a very slim 42-41-9 percent edge.

Typically, a Democratic presidential nominee would not have to exert much effort to hold these aforementioned states in the party column. The fact that they are currently in toss-up range, and all the studies but the New Hampshire poll were conducted before Thursday’s CNN presidential debate, suggests that the electoral map is legitimately becoming more expansive.

At least for the short term, it appears evident that the campaign will expand beyond the traditional seven swing states that have been the deciding factors in the last two elections.

Governors’ Races News — NH, NC, VT; Hollier Disqualified in Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Governor

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in New GOP Primary Survey — The National Journal published a new survey of New Hampshire voters (May 15-20; 420 likely New Hampshire voters; online) that posts to a double-digit Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. According to this data, Ayotte’s lead is 50-28 percent.

The survey is comprised of an online panel from Survey Monkey, which is one of the least accurate sources in the polling industry. The sampling universe began with 1,196 New Hampshire adults and then was winnowed to 420 likely GOP primary voters. Therefore, while Ayotte undoubtedly has a lead in the race, it may not be as strong as this poll suggests.

Additionally, with a late Sept. 10 primary election, this race has many weeks to fully develop. The eventual Republican nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Council member Cinde Warmington.

North Carolina: Robinson Rebounds — After several consecutive polls found Attorney General Josh Stein (D) beginning to pull away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open 2024 governor’s race, a series of new polls are again forecasting a seesaw political battle. From the March 3 to April 8 period, Stein was leading in four consecutive polls from four different polling firms including the April Quinnipiac University survey that posted him to an eight point lead.

Now, we see another four polls conducted from April 8 to May 18, two of which giving each man a slight edge. Looking at the North Carolina voting history, we can expect this race to bounce around from now until Election Day, which will likely culminate in a very close final result.

Vermont: Another Key Democrat Won’t Run — On the heels of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) announcing that he would not again run for his former position, ex-Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger (D) early this week made a similar announcement regarding the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

With the May 30 candidate filing deadline fast approaching, Democrats have yet to recruit a strong opponent for four-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) who is seeking re-election to a fifth term. Despite Vermont’s heavily Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott again is well positioned to defy the odds and win yet another re-election.

House

MI-13: Hollier Disqualified — After the initial clerk staff reports revealed that former state senator and 2022 congressional candidate Adam Hollier (D) failed to submit the required number valid petition signatures for the 2024 congressional election, the Wayne County Clerk has verified that he is disqualified. According to the clerk’s report, Hollier filed only 863 valid registered voter signatures, well short of the needed 1,000. The disqualification is a break for freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who defeated then-Sen. Hollier, 28-23 percent, in the 2022 Democratic primary.

It appeared that Hollier was the congressman’s most serious challenger. Remaining in the race are former state Rep. Mary Waters and resigned Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. The latter agreed to a plea bargain that required her to admit to criminal misconduct in office. Waters reported just over $5,000 cash-on-hand on her March 31 campaign disclosure report. Therefore, Rep. Thanedar’s political position has greatly improved.

Trump Leads in All But One Swing State; Utah GOP Nominating Convention Saturday; Kansas State House Leader Nixes Run

THE SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 26, 2024

President

Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One — Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for former President Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head-to-head pairings with President Joe Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Trump leads Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to 10 (North Carolina) percentage points. Only in Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead only in Michigan (+3).

This polling series represents Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow — Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40 percent of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40 percent delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.

In the governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

House

KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House — Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.

Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1 candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Could Boebert Succeed Buck? Candidates Settle in MT-2;
No Runoff in NC-6; Baseball Owner Leads in Ohio Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 15, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Clarifying the Situation — Several reports are circulating around the internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.

Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election, because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25 state primary.

Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates.

MT-2: Candidates File — Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg.

Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Donald Trump posted a 62-35 percent victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4 Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat — Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5 Republican primary announced Wednesday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30 percent of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26 percent of the vote, and Walker 24 percent.

Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Walker announced that he has accepted former President Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities.

The move means that McDowell, who Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5. Even if one or more should run, McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle.

Senate

Ohio: Dolan Takes Lead in New Poll — Emerson College polled the tight Ohio Senate primary (March 7-10; 443 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and finds a change on the leader board. For the first time in any survey, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians professional baseball club, has taken the Republican primary lead. According to the Emerson findings, Sen. Dolan posts a 26-23-16 percent edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.

Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. Tuesday’s winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races.

Super Tuesday Voting

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign. (CBS video)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 6, 2024

President

Biden, Trump: Almost Clean Sweeps — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.

Haley, calling for Trump to mend fences with those who supported her throughout the primary process, announced this morning that she was suspending her campaign for the presidency. “The time has now come to suspend my campaign,” she said. “Our congress is dysfunctional and only getting worse. … Our world is on fire because of
America’s retreat. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less. … We must bind together as Americans. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Senate

California: Schiff, Garvey Advance — Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail-in ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim senator when incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33 percent of the vote to Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and seven percent of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.

Texas: Allred Wins Outright — In a result that would have to register as a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

House

Alabama: Moore Wins; CD-2 in Runoffs — The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48 percent victory margin.

Though Carl represents 59 percent of the new district and Moore the remainder, Moore performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Carl’s Mobile-area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Governor

North Carolina: Nominees Chosen Today — As expected, the open governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.

Super Tuesday Preview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Today is Super Tuesday, and while presidential nomination races are occurring in 16 states and one territory we continue our look into the five states holding their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Yesterday, we analyzed Alabama, Arkansas, and California. Today, North Carolina and Texas.

North Carolina

(Click on map to see full size.)

Aside from the presidential primary, the open governor’s race leads the Tar Heel State ballot today. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so each party hosts a primary to nominate a successor.

In what will probably prove to be the most competitive of the 2024 governors’ races, the North Carolina electorate will nominate candidates tonight. Very likely, we will see the respective Democratic and Republican primaries turn to Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). North Carolina, which always hosts very close statewide campaigns, will again do so in this open governor’s battle.

The new North Carolina congressional map is the Republicans’ saving grace for the 2024 US House picture. The party is projected to gain at least three seats in the Tar Heel delegation and most of the districts will see nominees emerge tonight. The state does have a runoff rule, but with only a 30 percent threshold it typically does not come into play.

The new map makes freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District more competitive, and Republicans have a two-way primary between two-time congressional nominee Sandy Smith and businesswoman and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout. Rep. Davis will be favored in the general election, but we can expect a much more competitive political environment to develop in this Virginia border seat under the new district confines.

Incumbents Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough), Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk), David Rouzer (R-Wilmington), Richard Hudson (R-Southern Pines), and Alma Adams (D-Charlotte) will have little trouble winning tonight and in November.

Freshman incumbent Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock), who unseated then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Republican primary, faces primary competition from mortgage broker Christian Reagan. In the general election, state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville), unopposed in tonight’s Democratic primary, will challenge Edwards. We can expect to see some competition in this race, but the first-term incumbent is the clear favorite to win a second term.

Redistricting has created four open seats, two of which because the incumbents are opposing each other for state attorney general. Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) leaves open a safely Republican seat that will largely be decided tonight. Six Republicans are on the ballot with the leading candidates appearing as state Rep. John Bradford (R-Mecklenburg County), former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom, and Baptist pastor Mark Harris who ran in 2018 and ostensibly won the general election but was barred from taking office due to vote fraud charges.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman) is retiring after serving what will be 10 full terms and leaves basically a two-way contest in his wake for the safely Republican 10th District. State Rep. Grey Mills (R-Mooresville) and firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, previously a candidate in the Charlotte-anchored District 14, are battling for the party nomination tonight. The winner will succeed McHenry in the next Congress.

The most crowded open seats lie in the Greensboro area’s 6th District where Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) is retiring because the new 6th is unwinnable for a Democrat. In fact, the party is not even fielding a candidate. Therefore, the winner among the six contenders vying for the party nomination, including former Congressman Mark Walker, will have an unopposed run in November.

The open 13th District, where Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) is bypassing a difficult re-election run to instead challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026, features 13 Republican candidates. This is the most likely primary that evolves into a runoff election because there is no clear leader. The eventual GOP nominee wins in November, but it is probable we will not see a nominee emerge tonight.

The most likely open seat nominee is state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) who is the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new Charlotte anchored 14th CD. He should have little trouble capturing the district in the general election.

Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) stands for a third term and will easily win renomination tonight. For the Democrats, the party faithful could send the top two finishers, likely US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), into a secondary runoff election.

To win the Texas Senate nomination outright, a candidate would have to receive majority support. With a dozen candidates on the ballot, it will be tough for anyone to break the 50 percent threshold. If a runoff proves necessary, the election will be held on May 28. Though the Democrats will field a credible opponent to Sen. Cruz — most likely Rep. Allred — it will be a tall order to win a Texas statewide election in a presidential year especially with Republicans pulling stronger support among Hispanics.

The congressional delegation features three open seats, all in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) is retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House. The heir-apparent for the seat appears to be Tarrant County state Rep. Craig Goldman who could win the Republican primary outright tonight.

In the neighboring 26th District, veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point) is retiring after what will be 11 terms in office. A major primary battle is occurring here that will likely head to a runoff election. Businessman Brandon Gill has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but that will not likely be enough to propel him over the 50 percent mark. Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey’s son, Scott Armey a former Denton County Judge (Executive), is in the race, making a return to elective politics after last being on the ballot in 2002.

Rep. Allred leaves his Dallas-anchored seat to a very crowded 10-person Democratic primary. A runoff here is likely, too, with state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) and former Dallas City Councilman Kevin Felder possibly being the top two Democratic contenders. A runoff here is almost a certainty with the eventual Democratic nominee having the inside track in the general election.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who lost badly in the Houston mayoral runoff in December, faces a tough primary challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards; this is a race worth paying attention to. We will also see a general election rematch develop in District 34 between two veterans of the House, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former US Rep. Mayra Flores (R).