Category Archives: ALABAMA

Redistricting: Alabama, Yes — SC, No

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 14, 2026

Alabama

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Alabama Congressional Districts map.

The US Supreme Court acted quickly and decisively earlier this week to resolve the Alabama redistricting situation.

The high court vacated all lower-court federal injunctions related to Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, which had previously been ruled a racial gerrymander. The Court’s opinion in Callais v. Louisiana effectively invalidated the prior rulings, clearing the way for Alabama to proceed with enacting a new congressional redistricting plan.

Gov. Kay Ivey (R) summoned the legislature into a special redistricting session following the Callais decision, and lawmakers moved to reinstate the congressional map they passed in 2023. The plan is expected to give Republicans an additional seat and return the state to a 6R–1D delegation. The map shifts the 2nd District back into southeastern Alabama after a court order had previously required the creation of a second majority minority district anchored in the city of Montgomery.

Returning to the 2023 map resolves a major Republican redistricting challenge in southern Alabama. With Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) running for the Senate, former Rep. Jerry Carl (R) had been set for a Republican primary battle with state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) in the open 1st District, which stretched from Mobile to the Georgia border.

Under the newly enacted plan, however, Carl and Marques will run in separate Republican-leaning districts, each of which would make them nominal favorites in their respective congressional campaigns.

Now seeing a legal resolution, Gov. Ivey announced that the primaries for the affected districts, meaning CDs 1, 2, 6, and 7, are now scheduled for Aug. 11. The remaining districts, 3, 4, and 5, will continue their nomination process on May 19, the state’s original primary election date. Because the boundaries of those latter three districts remain unchanged, there is no need to postpone their primaries.

Although Alabama is a runoff election state, the districts holding delayed primaries will not be subject to a secondary runoff. Instead, the candidates receiving the highest number of votes in their respective primaries will secure their party nominations and advance to the general election.

There had been speculation that the legislature might attempt to draw a 7R – 0D congressional map, but the lawmakers ultimately bypassed the opportunity in order to quickly enact a new plan.

South Carolina

While Alabama moved forward with redistricting, the South Carolina legislature did not. Falling two votes short of the two-thirds majority needed to suspend the regular order rules to move a new bill, lawmakers will conclude the 2026 legislative session today without making any changes to the state’s congressional map.

The opportunity for change, however, may not be over. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) still has the power to call a special legislative session for the purpose of drawing a new congressional map. If convened quickly, a revised plan could still be implemented for the 2026 election cycle.

In a special session, only a simple majority vote would be required to bring the measure forward and secure final passage. Since the state House approved the proposed map with two-thirds support and the Senate fell only two votes short of that threshold, Republicans would likely have sufficient backing to enact a new 7R–0D congressional map.

Gov. Henry McMaster has previously said he would not call a special session, but he could still change course. It is clear that President Trump and congressional Republican leaders are likely to lobby him to move forward with a new federal redistricting map.

Now that Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Tennessee have all enacted new congressional maps in recent days, it remains to be seen if South Carolina will ultimately follow suit.

Redistricting: Tennessee & Alabama

Click on the map above to see a larger image size, or go here to see the map on the Tennessee Legislature’s site: https://www.capitol.tn.gov/common/img/US-House_2026_Proposed.jpg

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 8, 2026

Tennessee

The Volunteer State’s legislature passed a new congressional map, and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed the legislation into law late this week. The map will likely produce a new 9R-0D congressional delegation.

Principally, the map divides the previous 9th District that contained the city of Memphis and was almost wholly contained in Shelby County into sections. The draw creates a new 9th CD that houses part of Shelby County but then stretches to the outer Nashville suburbs. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) has represented the 9th CD since the beginning of 2007 as a Caucasian in a 60 percent African American district.

Despite having a white Representative, the 9th was a protected majority minority district under the Voting Rights Act. With last week’s US Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana case, the TN-9 District may be redrawn because race can now be used as a factor in redistricting only if the underlying situation involves prisons or if there is demonstrative evidence that a racial community historically has been directly barred access to voting. Since neither of the criteria exists in this area, the new map was drawn.

The new 9th stretches from the south Memphis suburbs easterly along the Mississippi border and past the city of Shelbyville before turning north to move into the outer Nashville suburbs found in Franklin County. The seat transforms from one where Kamala Harris attracted 70.8 percent of the district vote to a CD where President Trump would have defeated her with a 59.9 – 38.8 percent margin.

Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Columbia) 5th District is also vastly different under the new map. Part of the reason for the drastic change was to give Rep. Ogles a different Republican district to help him survive certain political fallout that was endangering his re-election chances.

The 5th, while continuing to begin in the area south and west of Nashville, then moves northwest to capture part of the city of Clarksville near the Kentucky border before moving to the Missouri border and then south along the Arkansas border all the way through Shelby County and the city of Memphis to Mississippi. The new 5th would have yielded President Trump a 60.9 – 37.8 percent win, a slight uptick over the previous 5th CD where Trump defeated Harris, 58.1 – 40.3 percent.

The new map changes every congressional district in Tennessee’s central and western regions. The most negatively affected seat for an incumbent is Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Germantown), who sees his 8th CD that occupies most of far western Tennessee and stretches from the Kentucky border to Mississippi into one that has a more west to east construction.

In terms of partisanship, Kustoff takes a major hit but would still have a solidly Republican district. Under the previous 8th, President Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 70.0 – 28.9 percent spread. Under the new plan, the Trump victory margin would have been 59.4 – 39.2 percent or a negative swing from Rep. Kustoff’s perspective of a net 20.9 points. Still, the new 8th will be rated as safely Republican.

Aside from Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Kingsport) northeastern District 1 where President Trump would have captured 78.4 percent of the vote, the remaining 8 congressional districts all fall between 67.2 percent Trump to 59.4 percent.

With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline already passed, but the state’s primary not until Aug. 6, the Governor has plenty of time to change the US House filing schedule in order to implement the new map for the 2026 election.

Alabama

Decisions were made with regard to Alabama redistricting, too. Because this state is in precisely the same situation as Louisiana, their remedy will be similar. Instead of drawing a new map, however, the legislature says it will revert to a plan passed in 2023, but which was declared a racial gerrymander.

With the ruling criteria established from the Callais v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court, the legislative leaders believe the previously drawn 2023 map will be legal under the definitive SCOTUS ruling. Therefore, they have reinstituted the plan. The question remains as to whether a court will approve the maneuver in time for the 2026 election.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, so obviously the Governor will have to establish a new nomination date for the state’s US House races. Should the 2023 map stand, it is likely that freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will be the odd man out, since this map basically restores the footprint of the 2021 map. This means that both the cities of Mobile and Montgomery will anchor their own districts as opposed to being placed in the same 1st District as is the current case.

The change to the 2023 map would very likely return Alabama to a 6R-1D delegation as compared to the current 5R-2D division.

Redistricting Disarray: Alabama Yes, Georgia No, Louisiana Back to Jungle

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 4, 2026

Redistricting

The Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana racial gerrymandering case has thrown the House election cycle into disarray. As a result of the high court’s decision, redistricting options are again being contemplated in several states.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), despite previously stating she opposed redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections, issued a proclamation on Friday calling the legislature into special session later today to redraw the state’s congressional and state Senate maps.

Alabama is in exactly the same situation now as Louisiana. Under court orders, both states were required to redraw their 2021 congressional maps to add a majority minority district. Following last week’s Supreme Court Callais ruling, those revised maps are now invalid.

It is probable that the Alabama legislature will revert to a map like the one enacted in 2021. Such a plan would collapse Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Montgomery) current District 2 and shift the seat back to southeast Alabama. That change would likely return the state’s congressional delegation to a 6R–1D alignment, rather than the current 5R–2D split.

The principal beneficiary of such a map would be former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in a 2024 paired‑incumbent primary. He is currently running in the reconfigured 1st District now that incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R) is seeking a Senate seat. Carl, however, trails state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) in a recently released poll.

A new map would likely restore Mobile County as the population anchor of District 1 and shift District 2 back to southeast Alabama. Such a draw would allow both Carl and Marques to run in separate districts. While each would still face primary competition under a new configuration, they would no longer be forced to run against one another.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, which means the legislature will have to act quickly. The most likely scenario is that the regular primary proceeds as planned for all offices except the US House of Representatives and state Senate. Once new maps are enacted, a separate filing period and new primary dates for those offices would be set for later in the year.

Georgia is another state that could potentially redraw its congressional map, but with candidate filing already closed and the May 19 primary fast approaching, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is taking the opposite position of Gov. Ivey. Kemp said he does not support redistricting for 2026, though indicated he would be open to considering a new map for the 2028 election cycle.

In Louisiana, state Senate President Cameron Henry (R‑Metairie) said Friday that the 2026 election scheduling decision will likely return the state’s US House races to the jungle primary format that has been in place since the late 1970s.

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already suspended the May 16 primary for US House campaigns in response to the Supreme Court ruling. The other affected contests, most notably the US Senate race, will continue to proceed under the May 16 partisan primary schedule.

With other offices still operating under the jungle primary system, which runs concurrently with the November general election and employs December runoffs when no candidate wins a majority, it is likely the Governor will simply return the US House races to this previous format and election calendar. Such would be the least expensive way for the state to conduct elections under a revised schedule.

Once the Virginia state Supreme Court renders a decision upholding the April 21 redistricting referendum, and the new Florida plan wins approval from its state Supreme Court after a lawsuit is formally filed, along with Alabama and Louisiana overcoming the legal objections to moving their primaries, the national redistricting landscape will finally come into clear focus.

Assuming all of these courts rule as suggested, we can reasonably predict that the new California and Texas maps would offset one another in terms of partisan gains, as would the changes in Virginia and Florida. Republicans would probably gain one seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, with the potential for one or two additional seats in Ohio. Democrats would gain one seat in Utah under that state’s new court‑ordered map.

Therefore, if the national redistricting picture ultimately unfolds as outlined above, the 2026 changes would likely result in Republicans achieving a net gain of four to five seats nationwide.

Redistricting Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 8, 2024

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

Several states have been conducting a second round of redistricting, and four have completed the process. Therefore, the group has new maps in place for the 2024 election cycle. Below is a redistricting recap:

Completed States

Alabama: The US Supreme Court rather surprisingly sided with the Democratic plaintiffs to force a redraw of the Alabama congressional map under the reasoning that a second majority minority seat could be drawn. The new map results in a pairing of Republican Congressmen Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a southern Alabama district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Gulf Coast and Florida border.

The Republican primary election, scheduled for March 5, will decide who represents this district likely for the remainder of the decade. Rep. Carl represents 59 percent of the new district while Rep. Moore overlaps with 41 percent of the new AL-1 territory. Since Carl and Moore are the only Republican candidates, no runoff election will be necessary.

As a result of the reconfiguration, a new Montgomery/Mobile-anchored 2nd District was designed to elect an African American. A total of 13 Democrats and eight Republicans are running for the new seat. Expect runoff elections to occur for both parties. The runoff election date is April 2. Democrats are expected to gain a net of one seat under the new court ordered map.

Georgia: The new Georgia congressional plan was completed and received court approval during the Christmas break. The court previously ruled that the plan should be drawn to create another majority minority district. The legislature and governor complied with the ruling in that they converted a racial coalition district into a majority minority seat. Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) is moving from her current 7th District that lies east of Atlanta back to a more western suburban seat that is closer to the district from which she was originally elected. She should have little trouble winning the new 6th District.

Conversely, current 6th District Congressman Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) will run in the new 7th CD that is Republican favorable. Therefore, expect no change in the 9R-5D Georgia delegation party division.

New Mexico: Republicans challenged the 3D-0R congressional map as an “excessive gerrymander,” but lost at the district court level. The New Mexico state Supreme Court then rejected the Republican appeal. Therefore, the current map will stand for the 2024 election, and likely throughout the decade.

The state’s 2nd District, while designed to elect a Democrat, is competitive and we can expect to see another tight election contest between freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). The 2022 race between the two ended with Vasquez unseating then-Rep. Herrell by less than one percentage point.

North Carolina: Republicans scored a big victory here, as the new map will yield the GOP a net three-seat gain. With Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) not seeking re-election, the Democrats are conceding the new 6th District without even fielding a candidate. Six Republicans are vying for the party nomination including former US Rep. Mark Walker and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner.

Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) foregoing re-election in the new 13th District to run for the Senate in 2026 means the Republicans are a sure bet to convert this seat, too. A total of 14 Republicans have qualified for the ballot in this district.

The new 14th CD is another seat primed to go Republican. Democratic incumbent Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is running for Attorney General, meaning state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) is becoming the prohibitive favorite to win this district.

The most competitive general election appears to be forming in the state’s 1st District where Democratic freshman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) faces more Republican terrain in his new district. Former congressional nominee Sandy Smith and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout are vying for the party nomination. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a new 50.9D – 47.7R partisan lean, meaning the seat now only leans Democratic. Under the previous map, the 1st District partisan lean was factored as 54.1D – 44.4R.

States in Progress

Florida: The Florida congressional map was declared illegal at the district level, but the state Appellate Court overturned the ruling. Therefore, it is likely the current map will stand at least for the 2024 election cycle.

Louisiana: Like Alabama, Louisiana was under court order to redraw their map for purposes of creating another majority minority congressional seat. The court has given the legislature and its new governor, Republican Jeff Landry, until the end of this month to submit a new plan. It is likely that the two most affected Republicans will be Reps. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) and Julia Letlow (R-Start). It is probable that Democrats will gain one seat in the Baton Rouge area once the final plan is completed and adopted.

New York: The New York congressional map has been returned to the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission for a redraw. The new map will require approval from the state legislature. This is the “wild card” plan for the 2024 election cycle. Most believe Democrats will make big gains, and the current map favors the party, yet their candidates could not deliver what was expected in 2022. Should some of the districts be made more Democratic, other marginal seats in the adjacent areas could become more Republican.

The areas most likely to be affected are Long Island, Brooklyn/Manhattan, the Hudson Valley, and the upstate area in and around Syracuse. Expect Democratic gains once the process is complete, but it is difficult to project just how many.

South Carolina: The US Supreme Court has heard oral arguments on a lawsuit challenging the 1st District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) as a racial gerrymander. The high court ruling is pending. A decision for the plaintiffs could mean the loss of one Republican seat. Rejecting their claim would mean the current 6R-1D delegation map will likely stand throughout the remainder of the decade.

Wisconsin: During the Christmas break, the state Supreme Court ordered a redraw of the state Senate and Assembly boundaries but did not rule on the congressional map. Most expect the court to order a federal reconfiguration as well, but time is growing short. The Secretary of State has informed the court that new maps will have to be in place before March 15 in order to conduct 2024 elections. A new congressional map would likely mean a net gain of at least one seat for the Democrats.

Republicans Coalesce in IL-17; Alabama’s New Congressional Map; Baird Rumors in Indiana False; Crowded Field in PA-10; Kentucky Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 9, 2023

House

Illinois Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) / Photo provided by Eric Sorensen for Illinois campaign

IL-17: Republicans Coalesce — Republicans plan to target Illinois’ 17th District as a conversion opportunity in the next election. It has been the site of two close electoral contests, and Republicans tend to do better in western Illinois during presidential election years. Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) is the freshman incumbent who will be seeking a second term.

Republicans are coalescing around retired circuit judge Joe McGraw, who will soon officially announce his candidacy. Paving the way for the McGraw announcement, businessman Ray Estrada (R) who has been running for the seat himself, said that he will no longer pursue his candidacy. This likely paves the way for an easy McGraw Republican primary run.

The 17th, which stretches to form a craggy letter “C” from Rockford to the Quad Cities to Galesburg, Peoria, and finally Bloomington, rates a D+4 classification from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site rates IL-17 as the 26th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic Conference.

Alabama: Court Releases New Map — The court-appointed special master returned the new congressional map to the three-judge panel late last week, as directed. Not surprisingly, the new map will feature a Republican district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Florida border that pairs Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise). As a result, a new 2nd District has been created, designed to elect the choice of the dominant minority community, in this case African Americans. Democrats will gain one seat in the Alabama delegation as a result of this new plan.

IN-4: Rep. Baird to Seek Re-Election — A couple weeks ago, reports were forthcoming from Indiana that 4th District US Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle) was planning to retire and announce that just before the candidate filing deadline expired in order to give his son, state Rep. Beau Baird (R-Greencastle), the inside track toward winning the Republican nomination. That rumor is false. Congressman Baird announced late last week that he will run for a fourth term next year and is heavily favored for re-election.

PA-10: More Join Already Crowded Field –– As expected when she announced her retirement from the newsroom, television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson (D) on Thursday formally declared her intention to run for Congress. She joins what is becoming a crowded Democratic field, however, as each of the candidates are vying for the right to challenge six-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg). Also in the Democratic primary are 2022 congressional nominee and Harrisburg City Councilwoman Shemaine Daniels, Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen, and international business consultant John Broadhurst.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site rates this central Pennsylvania seat as the 37th most vulnerable seat in the 222-member Republican Conference.

Governor

Kentucky: Cameron Gaining Against Gov. Beshear — WPA Intelligence conducted their second September poll of the Kentucky governor’s race for The Club for Growth organization. The survey (Sept. 25-28; 500 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters; live interview) found Gov. Andy Beshear (D) leading Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) by a 48-42 percent count. In their early September survey, WPA found a 48-40 percent Beshear advantage.

The slight movement suggests that Cameron has a chance to gain further support as the campaign enters its critical final month. The election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Redistricting Update – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023

House

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Six States: Both Parties Affected — Court rulings in two congressional redistricting states will likely be handed down within the next few days, and another’s legislature will soon begin to redraw their current boundaries.

The Alabama special master is mandated to report to the three-judge panel that ordered the redraw during next month’s first week. The New Mexico state Supreme Court directed the assigned lower court in Roswell to report its decision during the first few days of October. The North Carolina legislature is going into special session during the first week of October to redraw their maps.

Today, we look at the situation in the first six states that may see another round of congressional redistricting, those from Alabama through New York. Tomorrow, we will look at the remaining five domains from North Carolina through Wisconsin.

• Alabama: The US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the federal three-judge panel’s ruling that disqualified the legislature’s map means that the court-appointed special master will deliver a final map to the court on or around Oct. 3. The released three public options are similar.

All would pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in one southern Alabama district that would stretch the width of the state from Mississippi to Florida. A new majority minority 2nd District would then be created and anchored in Montgomery County. The end result will be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Florida: The lower court ruling declaring the Florida congressional map unconstitutional means the state will likely be forced to redraw the map at some future point. The state and the plaintiffs agreed the redraw would only affect the north Florida sector and concentrate on whether the former 5th CD, that previously stretched from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, will be reconstructed in some manner. The state is appealing the ruling, so we can count on seeing significant time elapse before this issue is decided.

The members’ districts most affected would be Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), and Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach). The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, 2024, so enough time remains for the map to be redrawn before the next election. Other regional members could also be tangentially affected. The concluding outcome would likely be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Georgia: A lawsuit challenging the state’s 6th District (Rep. Richard McCormick; R-Suwanee), claims that the Atlanta metro area has been gerrymandered to deny African Americans another seat. This case will require very significant time to maneuver through the entire legal process. Therefore, it is probable that any final judicial decision will not come before the 2024 election.

• Louisiana: The Louisiana situation is similar to that of Alabama’s. SCOTUS’ Alabama decision could force a redraw here, too, but no action has yet been taken. The state elections, including the governor’s office, are scheduled for Oct. 14, with a runoff on Nov. 18 for the undecided races. Candidates securing majority support are elected outright in the first election. Therefore, no redistricting action will occur until well after the state elections are concluded, and likely after the first of next year.

Considering Louisiana’s unique election system that holds its first regular vote concurrent with the general election, plenty of time remains for a court to force a legislative redraw of the congressional lines, or eventually appoint a special master to make the changes. The most apparent vulnerable reconfiguration member is Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). Should a redraw occur before the 2024 election, the Democrats would likely gain one seat in this delegation.

• New Mexico: Republicans have filed suit here, claiming the map is a partisan gerrymander. The New Mexico state Supreme Court has directed the lower court in Roswell to render a decision this week — the first week of October. The ruling’s losing party will undoubtedly appeal to the state Supreme Court. If they decide a redraw is in order, expect it to happen before the 2024 election.

The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024, with a yet to be determined candidate filing deadline, though it will be sometime in February. A redraw would give the Republicans a better chance of regaining the state’s southern congressional seat.

• New York: Currently, the New York map is an interim court draw that the legislature, with input from an appointed commission, can replace. It is expected the Democratic legislature will make a move to draw a more favorable map. Last time, the legislature attempted to draw a 22D-4R map, but even the Democratic controlled courts ruled that such was a partisan gerrymander. Therefore, when they make boundary changes, the map drawers will likely be more cognizant of going too far since Republicans are sure to repeal.

Still, Democrats could make significant gains under a new map. Even under the current plan, a two-seat gain appears to be a minimum. It would not be surprising to see the Democrats convert three or four seats here in the coming 2024 election.

Trump, Biden Ahead by Wide Margins in New Poll; Navy SEAL Declares in Montana; Redistricting News from Alabama, North Carolina

New Hampshire GOP presidential poll results / WMUR TV graphic

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 29, 2023

President

New Hampshire Poll: St. Anselm College Releases Regular Poll — The New Hampshire Institute of Politics of St. Anselm College published their latest regular survey of Granite State voters (June 21-23; 1,065 registered New Hampshire voters; live interview) and sees former President Donald Trump gaining strength in the Republican primary while principal challenger Gov. Ron DeSantis is losing support. The partisan primary numbers find Trump leading Florida Gov. DeSantis, 47-19 percent with no other candidate exceeding six percent support.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden dominates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and author Marianne Williamson, 69-9-8 percent. These numbers exceed how the president is performing nationally. Since the state is unlikely to agree to moving their primary to comply with the new Democratic National Committee calendar, these numbers suggest that Biden could win a write-in campaign against his two intra-party challengers even if he doesn’t enter the official Democratic primary.

In hypothetical general election pairings, President Biden would lead both former President Trump and Gov. DeSantis with the same 49-40 percent spread. This data suggests there is less chance that New Hampshire will become a major general election Republican conversion target.

Senate

Montana: Retired Navy SEAL Declares Candidacy with NRSC Endorsement — Retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy (R) announced his US Senate candidacy Tuesday. Immediately, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, with its chairman being Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, endorsed Sheehy’s candidacy. The Montana Senate race is expected to be one of the hottest campaigns in the country as Republicans attempt to deny incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) a fourth term.

Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who is also expected to join the race, responded with a Tweet saying, “congratulations to Mitch McConnell and the party bosses on getting their chosen candidate. Now Washington has two candidates – Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester – who will protect the DC cartel.” Early polling shows Rep. Rosendale beginning the race with a substantial lead, so we can expect both a hot general election campaign, and an equally tough Republican nomination contest next year in Big Sky Country.

House

Alabama: Governor Calls Special Redistricting Session — To comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that went against the state, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) said that she will call a special redistricting session for the purposes of drawing a new map to comply with the decision. The legislature will report on July 17 to begin the process.

Since Alabama is a Super Tuesday state and is holding its regular primary on March 5, time is short to draw a new map and obtain the necessary judicial approvals. The ruling and new map is expected to give the Democrats an extra seat in the Alabama US House delegation that currently stands at 6R-1D.

SCOTUS: North Carolina Case Ruling — In an unsurprising 6-3 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled against the state of North Carolina on the subject of redistricting. Legal analyst Derek Muller of the Election Law Blog describes the crux of the state’s argument as saying, “the state constitution or state judiciary cannot constrain the state legislature exercising power under the Elections Clause.” Predictably, the justices ruled that the judiciary does have the authority to involve itself in redistricting decisions but underscored that the Supreme Court has the power to restrain lower courts from taking too much power away from the legislative bodies.

Largely because the North Carolina state Supreme Court has already reconsidered its previous partisan gerrymandering decision, the high court confined itself to the judicial power question.

House Updates – Including Gerrymandering: AL, CO, NM, NJ & NY

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022

House

Alabama redistricting map

Redistricting: Supreme Court Hears Alabama Case — In one of the first cases on the US Supreme Court’s new term docket, oral arguments were heard for the Alabama racial gerrymandering redistricting case, which could result in a landmark ruling relating to future interpretation of the Voting Rights Act.

The state of Alabama is arguing its reasons for keeping the state’s congressional map, which features one strong majority minority district. The US government is arguing that a second minority seat can be drawn. The presentations consumed more time than usual for Supreme Court oral arguments, and now it is up to the nine justices to craft a definitive ruling, which will be released sometime before June next year.

In November, the high court will hear oral arguments on the North Carolina redistricting case, which will lead to a definitive ruling pertaining to judicial power over the constitutional authority of state legislatures.

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Slight Lead — Despite representing a relatively safely Republican western slope 3rd Congressional District, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) looks to have a competitive race on her hands as we begin the campaign cycle’s final weeks. Colorado-based Keating Research conducted a poll for the Adam Frisch (D) campaign (Sept. 28-Oct. 2; 500 likely CO-3 voters; live interview & text). The ballot test results found Rep. Boebert’s lead shrinking to 47-45 percent, down from Keating’s 49-42 percent spread detected in its July survey.

Expect to see countering numbers from either the Boebert campaign or the National Republican Congressional Committee to soon be released.

NM-2: Gerrymandered District Yields Dem a Slight Edge — The Global Strategy Group, polling for the Gabe Vasquez (D) campaign, tested the NM-2 electorate to determine the state of the race featuring freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) and Vasquez, a Las Cruces City councilman. The GSG survey (Sept. 20-26; 500 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) sees Vasquez pulling ahead of Rep. Herrell, 45-43 percent.

The result is not particularly surprising in that the Democratic legislature and governor crafted the new 2nd CD to flip. Before redistricting, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated the seat, R+14. Post-redistricting, we see a D+4 categorization. This district will still yield a close finish, and voter turnout will tell the ultimate tale.

NJ-7: Rep. Malinowski Internal Poll Shows Dead Heat — The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research organization conducted a congressional poll for two-term Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill), who is again in a tight battle with former state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R). In 2020, Kean held Rep. Malinowski to a 51-49 percent re-election win in a district that was more Democratic than the new 7th. The GQR survey (Sept. 20-26; 500 likely NJ-7 general election voters) sees both candidates now attracting 48 percent of the vote. The Democratic pollster, however, also detects a partisan generic party label split of 50-45 percent favoring the Republicans. NJ-7 is a key Republican conversion opportunity seat.

NY-22: Republican Breaks Ahead — The Syracuse-anchored 22nd District is open in the 2022 election cycle because Rep. John Katko (R-Syracuse), one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Trump, is not seeking a fifth term. Ironically, the court-drawn map actually makes this district two points more Republican than the seat the Rep. Katko consistently won.

Siena College conducted an independent poll for the Spectrum News Service (Sept. 25-28; 453 likely NY-22 general election voters) and sees Republican technology company executive Brandon Williams jumping out to a five point, 45-40 percent, advantage over former intelligence agency analyst Francis Conole (D).

With the respondents believing the country is on the wrong track by a 25:63 percent margin, it is not particularly surprising to also see Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) falling behind Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/East Long Island) in this Upstate District. NY-22 is a must-win for the GOP in November.

Alabama Map Ruling Stayed; Redistricting Update

By Jim Ellis

Alabama redistricting map (Click on the map above or go to DavesRedistricting.org to see interactive map)

Feb. 9, 2022 — On a 5-4 vote, the US Supreme Court voted to stay the lower court ruling that invalidated the new Alabama congressional map. A Republican three-judge panel had ruled that a second majority minority district could have been drawn among the state’s seven congressional districts, and thus disqualified the plan on Jan. 23.

Writing a concurring opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh stated that the lower court decision was made too close to the 2022 election, meaning that the judicial process would not have proper time to hear the appeal and make an educated ruling prior to the state’s scheduled primary election. The ruling does not mean the appeal was granted, but merely postpones hearing the case to a later date.

Analysts say the stay ensures that the original map will be in place for this year’s election. It does not mean, however, that the map won’t be altered for the 2024 election and beyond.

The new plan is virtually an extension of the current map, which elected six Republicans and one Democrat in the 2020 election. It was a curious original decision, not only because the judges that ruled against the GOP map drawers were appointed by former President Donald Trump (2) and the late President Ronald Reagan (1), but that the same map footprint stood unencumbered for the past 10 years.

The major change made from the current map to the new draw came in the 7th CD, which is the Voting Rights district. The legislature, however, had no choice but to make a substantial change. AL-7 was 53,143 people short of reaching the state’s congressional district population quota of 717,754 individuals.

The previous ruling also postponed the Jan. 28 candidate filing deadline for the Alabama US House candidates. Those running for all other offices have now already filed and been qualified for the respective party primary ballots. The congressional candidates will now file on Feb. 11.

Redistricting Notes

• Summarizing the legal action in other states, the North Carolina map has been disqualified and the legislature will now return to redraw the congressional and state legislative maps. As has been the case throughout the previous decade, the partisan Republican legislature and the partisan Democratic state Supreme Court continue to go back and forth over the issue of partisan gerrymandering.

• The lower court ruling in Michigan rejected the Detroit area Democratic current and former state legislators’ claim that the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission members violated the Voting Rights Act in drawing the city of Detroit’s congressional and state legislative maps. Unless an appeal is granted, the new Michigan maps will stand for this year’s elections.

• The Kansas legislature adjourned without voting to override Gov. Laura Kelly’s (D) veto of the state’s congressional map. The hasty adjournment move, however, allows the legislature to reconsider the veto override. Without a successful override vote, the map will go to the courts for a redrawing of the Kansas City metro area.

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Rep. Jim Cooper to Retire;
Alabama Map Tossed

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 27, 2022 — The Tennessee state Senate passed the state House version of the new 9-District congressional map on Tuesday, which led to a political move. The redistricting plan now goes to Gov. Bill Lee (R), and he is expected to sign the legislation.

Retiring Tennessee Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville)

Upon passage of the new map that would significantly change the Nashville area, veteran Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) quickly announced that he will not seek re-election later this year.

The map drawers divided Davidson County, which houses the Democratic city of Nashville, and split it among three districts: Cooper’s 5th, Rep. John Rose’s (R-Cookeville) 6th CD, and Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Clarksville) TN-7.

The effect creates a new 5th District that moves from a victory margin of 60-37 percent for President Biden to a seat that former President Trump would have carried 54-43 percent according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. Both Reps. Rose and Green would continue to have solid Republican seats even with the Davidson County additions to their districts. Under the plan, the Tennessee delegation is expected to move from 7R-2D to 8R-1D.

Cooper is serving his 16th term in the House, winning his first election from the state’s east/southeastern 4th District in 1982, which he represented until he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate in 1994. He returned to the House from the Nashville district in 2002 when then-Rep. Bob Clement (D-Nashville) left the seat to challenge then-Sen. Fred Thompson (R), the same man who defeated Cooper in his statewide bid.

During his second tour of duty in the House, Rep. Cooper was not seriously challenged for re-election. He is a member of the House Armed Services Committee where he chairs the Strategic Forces Subcommittee. He also is a member of the House Oversight and Reform Committee, and the House Budget panel. It appeared that Cooper was preparing for a Democratic primary challenge this year, but that is moot now that the new 5th District becomes decidedly Republican.

Rep. Cooper is the 29th Democrat not to seek re-election. Counting the Democratic and Republican retirements along with the new and created (through redistricting) open seats, the House will see a minimum of 50 new members coming into office at the beginning of 2023.
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