Tag Archives: New Hampshire

The Switch States

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026

As we move closer to Election Day, and with early voting now underway in 27 states, several statewide contests are beginning to gel. Notably, polling in four states suggests voters may be poised to split their tickets between Governor and US Senator, a pattern that has been rare in recent cycles.

In Iowa, the latest individual poll finds respondents leaning toward Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand for Governor. In three other states, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas, the Republican candidates lead the Governor’s race, while Democrats have the edge in the respective Senate campaigns.

The co/efficient polling firm conducted the Iowa poll (Oct. 15-19; 863 likely Iowa general election voters; live interview) and found GOP Rep. Hinson trending ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45 percent count. In the Governor’s race, the same polling sample respondents favor Democrat Sand over Republican businessman Zach Lahn by a reversed 49-45 percent split.

Turning to Georgia, Quantus Insights (Oct. 15-17; 755 likely voters; live interview & text) also detects a split. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) holds a 51.8 – 44.9 percent lead over Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) in the Senate race. Yet in the Governor’s contest, Republican businessman Rick Jackson edges former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 48.2 – 46.6 percent.

In New Hampshire, the divide is even more pronounced. The National Public Affairs research firm (Oct. 8-12; 600 likely voters; live interview & text) shows Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑ Manchester) leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) 50-43 percent in the Senate race. Meanwhile, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) posts a commanding 54-38 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Two pollsters surveying the Texas races find Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading in his bid for a fourth term, while Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D‑Austin) continues to hold an edge in the Senate race.

The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Oct. 10-14; 2,000 likely voters; online) shows Abbott narrowly ahead of state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D‑Austin) 49-46 percent, while Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by a similarly slim margin, 48-46 percent.

A YouGov/CBS News survey (Oct. 8-16; 1,458 likely voters; online) finds similar results: Abbott leads 52-48 percent, and Talarico tops Paxton 51-49 percent. The fact that the YouGov poll reports 100 percent of respondents choosing a candidate suggests the use of push‑style forced‑choice questions.

Considering the past few election cycles where partisanship appeared to rule the day from the top of the ballot to the bottom, these data points may indicate a modest reemergence of ticket splitting returning to the American electorate.

The four states in question – Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Texas – share little in common geographically or economically, which lends credence to the idea that this pattern may be more than isolated race‑specific variation.

If these trends persist through Election Day and voters in the tested states ultimately elect candidates from different parties for Governor and US Senator, the outcomes would merit post‑election study. Understanding the drivers of ticket splitting in each state could help determine whether certain voter segments are beginning to look beyond party labels and instead evaluate more candidates individually.

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

Two Key Races Develop in NH Primary; Missouri Map Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

New Hampshire

Granite State voters chose their nominees last night, and two contests important to the national political landscape in November are now set.

In the Senate race, as expected, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) easily won their respective primaries and will meet in a shortened general election campaign. Rep. Pappas defeated scientist and far left activist Karishma Manzur, 65-33 percent, a result roughly in line with pre election polling.

Sununu posted an even larger victory over former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Scott Brown, 68-27 percent in the Republican primary.

Early general election polling suggests a competitive race. Though Democrats have held a consistent advantage in New Hampshire for much of this century, the Sununu family has also performed strongly statewide; John Sununu’s brother, Chris Sununu (R), for example, won four consecutive two year gubernatorial terms before retiring in 2024.

In the state’s closely watched 1st Congressional District, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – appears to have eked out a narrow 37-35 percent victory with several thousand ballots still outstanding. While the remaining votes could theoretically shift the outcome, it would be difficult for former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan to overcome Shaheen’s advantage. The tight margin is notable: the Shaheen name has been a fixture in New Hampshire politics for decades, so a narrow win in a Democratic primary represents an under performance relative to historical expectations.

On the Republican side, automobile business owner Anthony DiLorenzo scored a decisive victory, winning a majority of the vote and defeating former New Hampshire Republican Party Vice Chair Hollie Neveletsky by a 52-26 percent spread.

Although the 1st District has long been considered competitive, Rep. Pappas secured the seat for the Democrats through four consecutive terms. Prior to Pappas first winning here in 2018, the last time the 1st District electorate re-elected an incumbent came in 2004. Based upon the most recent electoral trends, Stefany Shaheen begins the general election with a substantial advantage.

In the 2nd District, the expected rematch materialized: Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams each won easy primary victories. Rep. Goodlander enters November as the clear favorite to retain the seat.

The gubernatorial primaries also unfolded without suspense. Gov. Kelly Ayotte won 91 percent of the vote in the Republican contest, while former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Ayotte begins the general election as the favorite to secure a second two-year term.

Statewide primary turnout, driven largely by strong participation in the 1st District, clearly favored Democrats. Approximately 57 percent of all ballots cast yesterday were in the Democratic primary.

Missouri

In an emergency ruling issued due to the compressed election timetable, Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who serves as the presiding justice for both the 6th and 8th Circuits, encompassing Michigan and Missouri, yesterday rejected Missouri’s appeal of a state Supreme Court decision disqualifying the new congressional map.

Justice Kavanaugh had previously ruled on a Michigan case that closely resembled the Missouri situation: in both states, ballot initiatives appeared to meet the statutory requirements for ballot placement, but election officials denied certification.

The two rulings, however, appeared inconsistent. Justice Kavanaugh declined to allow the Americans for Citizen Voting organization’s proof of citizenship measure onto the Michigan ballot yet permitted the Missouri initiative – seeking voter approval or rejection of the state’s new congressional map – to proceed. In both instances, he provided no explanation for his decisions.

The final outcome leaves the new 2026 Missouri map disqualified and reinstates the 2022 congressional boundaries. As a result, Republicans lose the opportunity to convert the Kansas City-anchored 5th District. Because the 2026 congressional nominees were chosen under the now invalidated map, the state must determine how to select nominees under the restored 2022 lines. Complicating matters further, it remains unclear which state official or entity has the authority to make such determinations.

With statutory deadlines rapidly approaching, Missouri faces significant time pressure to comply with its election laws, meaning nomination decisions will need to be made quickly.

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

The New England Trio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 27, 2026

Primaries

Wrapping up primary season, we come to the New England states, where three of the final four primaries will be held early next month. Delaware is the fourth state yet to nominate candidates for the November election, and its primary will occur even later than the New England trio.

Massachusetts voters will cast ballots on Sept. 1, New Hampshire holds its primary on the 8th, and Rhode Island follows on the 9th. Delawareans won’t vote until Sept. 15, but party endorsing conventions have effectively rendered the primary a pro forma exercise.

In preparation for the upcoming contests, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center fielded polls across the three New England states to provide a snapshot of the key nomination races. The UNH Survey Center routinely conducts surveys throughout the region.

In Massachusetts, Tuesday’s primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, along with an open race in the 6th Congressional District – the seat Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is risking to challenge the Senator.

According to the UNH Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.

The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (July 30-Aug. 2; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34 percent voter preference. Crypto currency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent.

Turning to New Hampshire, the Granite State Poll shows a significant shift in the Senate campaign. The previous overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the 10 publicly released Democratic primary polls.

Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.

While the 2nd Congressional District appears set for a general election re-match between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the open 1st District features hot primaries for both parties.

Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19 percent margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the vote on Sept. 8.

On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former state party vice chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election.

Finally, in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race, Massachusetts‑based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee trailing badly against Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Foulkes leads 45-30 percent, consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on Sept. 9.

New Hampshire’s Sour Mood

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 21, 2026

New Hampshire Electorate

To see an interactive version of this map, go to:
Dave’s Redistricting Map.

As the Sept. 8 New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.

Republicans fare worse than Democrats, likely because the sample includes more Democratic primary voters, but Democratic candidates are not in positive territory either. Almost every tested figure in both parties posts strongly negative approval ratings.

The Iran War is weighing heavily on Republicans: 60 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate while the conflict continues. Democrats face their own drag, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

The St. Anselm online poll, conducted Aug. 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self-identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.

Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

President Trump’s job approval stands at a woeful 37:62. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is barely above water at 50:46. Two Democratic House members, Rep. Chris Pappas (D Manchester), the likely open seat Democratic Senate nominee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D Nashua), were also tested. Rep. Pappas began a downward trend at 44:51, while Goodlander posts a narrow 45:43 positive rating.

The candidates fare even worse. Republican Senate contenders John E. Sununu and Scott Brown register 38:54 and 30:47, respectively. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington, the likely nominee against Gov. Ayotte, is similarly upside down at 26:37.

In the open Senate race with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Pappas leads former Sen. Sununu 48-41 percent and posts a larger 49-37 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Brown. In the GOP primary, Sununu would defeat Brown 54-24 percent.

The open 1st District Democratic primary appears headed for a photo finish. Though the field includes multiple candidates, the race has effectively narrowed to former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Shaheen. The poll shows Sullivan holding a slight 26-24 percent edge.

On the Republican side, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo leads business owner Hollie Noveletsky 30-17 percent. The 1st District is traditionally one of the nation’s most competitive seats, and the short general election window will likely produce a heated contest, though the Democratic nominee begins with at least a modest advantage.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Ayotte leads Warmington 49-38 percent. Turning to the 2nd District congressional campaign, a rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the Congresswoman holds a 50-35 percent advantage.

President Trump has lost New Hampshire in all three of his elections, so his continued decline in the state is unsurprising. More notable is the deterioration in former Sen. Sununu’s standing against Rep. Pappas, given the Sununu family (Gov. John Sununu; Gov. Chris Sununu; US Representative & Senator John E. Sununu) and their long record of New Hampshire electoral success.

A clue to the poll’s ideological tilt appears in the “most important issue” question. In most surveys, the economy and affordability dominate. Here, the top response is elections and protecting democracy – an issue typically emphasized by the most liberal Democratic voters. Its prominence suggests a leftward sample skew.

Even with the skew, the numbers still point toward Democratic advantages in nearly every major New Hampshire race except Governor. Whether Republicans can rebound in the remaining weeks will depend on their ability to reverse perceptions on the economy and affordability – areas where they traditionally perform better, but not in this survey.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.