Tag Archives: New Hampshire

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.

New Pappas-Sununu Data

Click on image to see full poll results.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025

Senate

The University of New Hampshire just released another of their regular Granite State polls, and we see further evidence of a budding competitive open New Hampshire US Senate contest between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House Chief of Staff John Sununu and brother of four-term New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.

The UNH poll (Sept. 17-23; 1,361 New Hampshire adults; 1,235 likely general election voters; 529 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Pappas leading a ballot test question with ex-Sen. Sununu 49-43 percent, but the sampling universe leans more Democratic than the actual voting data suggests. Therefore, it is likely that Sununu is a bit closer to Pappas than this spread foretells.

If ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who ran for the New Hampshire Senate seat in 2014 and lost to now-retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 51-48 percent, were the 2026 Republican nominee the Pappas lead would grow to 52-37 percent. On the current Republican Senate primary ballot test, Sununu posts a landslide lead over Brown, 42-19 percent.

Several data points provide evidence that the poll skews somewhat Democratic, though the answers have been weighted to balance the responses, at least to a degree.

The skew clues come from several questions. In terms of setting the sampling parameters, the official state voter registration party preference categorization totals 32.0 percent Republican, 28.3 percent Democratic, and 39.7 percent Unaffiliated voters. Total registration is recorded at 1,099,033 individuals.

The UNH poll divides the party identification categories into two different questions. First, is the partisan-registered voter query, and this number is consistent with the official state voter reg totals. In the poll, the self-identified partisan total is 32-29-39 percent Republican, Democratic, and Unaffiliated voters.

A second “Party ID” cell segmentation, however, asks an additional question, and the responses swing toward the Democrats with a 44-41-14 percent partisan division (Democratic; Republican; Unaffiliated). It is surmised that the pollsters are attempting to see how the unaffiliateds break, which explains the partisan switch and the severe reduction from the actual number of Unaffiliated registered voters (39 percent) to those who self-identify as Unaffiliated (14 percent).

Such a partisan break is seemingly consistent with New Hampshire’s federal election results even though the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations suggest a very different pattern.

In terms of the statewide partisan lean, DRA calculates a 52.0R – 45.2D party break. While the federal delegation (two Senators, two Representatives) is unanimously Democratic, the Republicans back home enjoy a statewide trifecta (Governor; majorities in both legislative houses). Thus, the voting split between federal and state offices is diametrically opposed. Together, these points largely explain the high number of close elections seen in the state over the past few years.

Perhaps the most definitive skew clue is the reported presidential vote within the polling sample. In the 2024 election, the actual vote count found then-Vice President Kamala Harris defeating then-former President Donald Trump with a 50.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin.

According to the poll respondents the presidential break is 51-45 percent in Harris’s favor; hence, these calculations suggest the 49-43 percent Pappas swing is potentially 2-3 percentage points closer.

Rep. Pappas was first elected to the House in 2018 after serving six years on the New Hampshire Executive Council [a unique five-member panel elected in districts that retains certain veto powers over the Governor relating to budget matters and personnel appointments], four years as Hillsborough (Manchester) County Treasurer, and four years in the state House of Representatives.

Pappas, in his four US House terms, has turned what was the most volatile congressional district in the United States (from 2004 thru 2016, NH-1 had defeated more incumbents that any CD in the country), into a safe domain for himself, thus bringing some political stabilization to the eastern New Hampshire area.

John E. Sununu was elected to the 1st District US House seat in 1996 and held the position for three terms. He was elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating then-Gov. Shaheen. Six years later, Shaheen returned to challenge Sen. Sununu, and successfully unseated him. She, of course, was then re-elected in 2014 and 2020.

Assuming Sununu enters the 2026 US Senate race, and all indications suggest he will, the New Hampshire open seat moves into the highly competitive category. Without Sununu as the GOP nominee, Rep. Pappas, who adroitly has positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate long before the state’s late September 8th primary, would see a clear path toward succeeding Sen. Shaheen.

The Return of John E. Sununu?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2025

Senate

GOP leaders were unsuccessful with one Sununu, but they may get another.

While national Republicans failed to recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu into the open New Hampshire Senate race, ex-US Sen. John E. Sununu, brother of the four-term Granite State chief executive, has been traveling throughout New Hampshire and confirms that entering the race is under consideration.

Ex-Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee Scott Brown is an announced candidate, but he is trailing Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) in polling and currently would not make this open race a top-tier national campaign. A recent St. Anselm College poll (Aug. 26-27; 1,800 New Hampshire registered voters; online) found Rep. Pappas topping former Sen. Brown, 48-37 percent. Opposite state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford), the Pappas lead expands to blow-out proportions, 48-30 percent.

Chris and John E. Sununu are the sons of former White House chief of staff in the George H.W. Bush Administration and ex-three term New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu. John E. Sununu served three terms in the US House, from 1997-2003, and was elected to the Senate, defeating then-Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D), in 2002.

Six years later, Shaheen returned to unseat Sen. Sununu in the first Obama election and remains in office. Her announced retirement has placed the in-cycle New Hampshire seat into the open category.

New Hampshire is regarded as a swing state yet, except when facing the Sununu’s, Democrats typically win the competitive races. That paradigm changed, however, when former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), who was defeated for re-election in 2016, rebounded to win the Governor’s campaign last November. Because New Hampshire is one of two states that limit their Governors to two-year terms – Vermont is the other – Gov. Ayotte will again be on the ballot in 2026.

New Hampshire has not been overly friendly to President Trump, because he failed to carry the state in all three of his elections. The average Trump Granite State vote is 46.5 percent, and his closest finish, which occurred in 2016, saw him coming within three-tenths of a percentage point from overtaking Hillary Clinton. Despite running well nationally in 2024, the President still lost a 50.3 – 47.6 percent New Hampshire decision to Kamala Harris.

Prior to Gov. Sununu publicly declining to run for the Senate, he led Rep. Pappas in early polling. In late March, Quantas Insights, for example, found Gov. Sununu running ahead of Rep. Pappas by a substantial 53-44 percent margin. Whether John E. Sununu can bring the race back into contention remains to be seen, but it is likely he will poll much closer to Rep. Pappas than any other potential Republican candidate.

For his part, Pappas, who was elected to the House in 2018 from the state’s eastern 1st District, won before an electorate that had defeated more incumbents than any in the country during the period between 2004 and 2018. Rep. Pappas has been able to secure the district, however, averaging 53.2 percent of the vote in his four congressional elections.

Prior to his service in Congress, Pappas was an elected member of the state’s unique five-member Executive Council, which has veto powers over a Governor’s appointments along with other duties and responsibilities. He previously won election as the Hillsborough County Treasurer and to the NH House of Representatives.

Declaring for the Senate immediately after incumbent Shaheen announced her retirement, Rep. Pappas has maneuvered himself into position as the consensus Democratic candidate and will have little trouble in securing the party nomination in September of next year.

Should John E. Sununu decide to enter the Senate race, it will be interesting to see if Brown will step aside. Because the legislature did not act upon Gov. Ayotte’s proposal to move the state’s primary to an earlier month, the GOP nominee could be in a significant underdog position after a bruising primary since so little time remains between the Sept. 8, 2026, primary and the subsequent November general election.

A Pappas-Sununu race would likely become highly competitive, placing the seat in play for the GOP. Therefore, the John E. Sununu potential candidacy is a developing story worth attention.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.