Tag Archives: Louisiana

Cassidy Crushed in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 6, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

A new American Pulse Research & Polling survey finds Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy trending seriously downward in his fight for renomination.

According to the American Pulse data, Sen. Cassidy would be in danger of not even advancing to a runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. In hypothetical runoff pairings, should Sen. Cassidy rebound, he would individually trail both Letlow and Fleming.

The American Pulse poll (March 20-24; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) sees Rep. Letlow topping Fleming and Sen. Cassidy, 31-25-21 percent, respectively. In a potential runoff, Rep. Letlow would lead Fleming, 37-34 percent. With 29 percent of the respondents unsure about this race, such a contest would be rated as too close to call.

Paired with incumbent Cassidy, Rep. Letlow would defeat him by a whopping 30 points according to this respondent sample, 54-24 percent. Fleming fares almost as well against the Senator. In a Fleming-Cassidy runoff, the challenger would lead the incumbent, 49-29 percent.

With a sample size of only 455 individuals for a statewide survey, the error factor would be high because of the small universe. These results, however, are so lopsided that even a wide error margin would still send Cassidy packing particularly because he fares so poorly in a runoff against either opponent.

Sen. Cassidy is facing serious obstacles. Obviously, these polling numbers reveal that the Senator is not popular within the Louisiana conservative vote base. Secondly, his vote to impeach President Trump associated with the January 6th conflict at the Capitol obviously put him at odds with the chief executive, though it is likely that the Senator believed doing so would not cause him future political problems because he obviously believed that Trump would never return to the White House.

As a result, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Letlow, doing so even before she became an official Senate candidate.

Perhaps Sen. Cassidy’s most serious problem, however, is Louisiana’s new nomination structure for federal offices. Since the 1970s, Louisiana has featured a jungle qualification format for all offices. All candidates are placed on the same ballot in an election concurrent with the regular general election. If a candidate records majority support in the first vote, the individual is elected. If not, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advanced to a post-general election runoff.

Under the new Louisiana primary system effective with the 2026 election, registered party members may only vote in their own party primary. If a person is registered as a “No Party” voter, the individual may choose a primary ballot at the polling place. Once selected, the “No Party” voter can then only participate in an associated runoff of the party in which he or she chose for the regular primary election.

In the jungle system, and particularly because the Democrats are currently very weak in Louisiana, Sen. Cassidy was able to attract a segment of their votes. This made him stronger in seeking re-election. In 2026, Democrats will not be allowed to crossover into the Republican primary, just as Republicans will not be allowed to vote in any 2026 Democratic primary.

Therefore, the new partisan primary system gives the Cassidy challengers a boost because endorsements, such as the one from President Trump, will carry more weight within the conservative Republican vote base without any adverse boomerang effect coming from crossover Democrats.

Added together, these obstacles spell trouble for Sen. Cassidy’s re-election chances as the current polls reflect.

The small sample American Pulse survey may not be completely indicative of where the entire Louisiana Republican electorate stands, but the Senator has fared poorly in other statewide polls, as well.

Looking at the last six publicly released Republican primary studies since Feb. 24, Sen. Cassidy has averaged only 26.7 percent support in the surveys testing a three-way contest among the Senator, Rep. Letlow, and Fleming.

As we head toward a May 16 Louisiana Republican primary election and a potential June 27 GOP runoff, Sen. Cassidy today looks to be the Senate incumbent most likely to fail to qualify for the general election.

Three Now Battling for
Louisiana Senate Seat

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 19

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challengers to hold his US Senate seat.

It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.

A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.

The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (March 7-10; 500 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21 percent advantage over Rep. Letlow and Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43 percent edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.

The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the Feb. 21-23 period (600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21 percent with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32 percent) and Letlow (36-27 percent) in runoff scenarios.

Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling.

Quantas (Feb 23-24; 1,428 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20 percent split with Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32 percent in Fleming’s favor.

JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 Louisiana likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22 percent lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.

The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.

In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker and Majority Leader both hail from Louisiana.

A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.

Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.

Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Fleming.

Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.

Louisiana’s Cassidy Strikes Back

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 30, 2026

Senate

Already, the Louisiana Senate Republican primary is taking shape, and we are witnessing a highly competitive and largely negative race beginning to unfold.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) attracted a great deal of political attention last week as she announced her Republican primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy along with an endorsement from President Trump. Now, the Senator is seizing the offensive.

The Cassidy campaign just released the results of a Public Opinion Strategies poll (Jan. 20-22; sample size not publicized) that largely outlines what promises to be the Cassidy campaign’s line of attack against Rep. Letlow.

According to the POS survey, Sen. Cassidy leads Rep. Letlow and state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, 32-21-16 percent. State Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta trail the group with nine and one percent support levels.

Another recently released survey, this from JMC Analytics & Polling for the Fleming campaign (Jan. 12-14; 650 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) finds an entirely different ballot test result. This data projects Fleming with a 23-22 percent edge over Sen. Cassidy. The remaining candidates split an aggregate 16 percent of the preference responses. The JMC poll was conducted before Rep. Letlow entered the race; hence, she was not included.

Under the Cassidy POS poll’s “informed ballot” result, meaning a series of messages about the poll sponsor’s opponent(s) that are usually negative, the Cassidy lead increases to 55-13-13 percent over Rep. Letlow and Treasurer Fleming. When the push questions isolate Rep. Letlow, the one-on-one “informed” ballot test moves to a whopping 69-22 percent in Cassidy’s favor.

While the query verbiage was not included in the poll analysis, the summary indicates that Rep. Letlow’s stock transactions will be at the forefront of the attack against her, and it is probable the information is at least somewhat sensationalized.

In the poll analysis, the text claims that Rep. Letlow has “over 200 violations of the Stock Act.” When reading the supporting story from the NOTUS (News of the United States) website, we see that the violations were for the late reporting of a group of 210 stock transactions on her financial disclosure report. The combined value of the transactions is reported in the range of $225,000 to $3.3 million. The disclosure report does not delineate further, but the campaign inference will be that she hid millions of dollars in stock transactions.

It appears that the Cassidy campaign is also targeting Letlow as a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only), claiming that her voting record is to the left of the Senator’s. Another attack, as also outlined in the poll analysis, is her taking a trip to Qatar “funded by a pro-Doha group.”

The most serious early campaign obstacle for Rep. Letlow and the other candidates is overcoming Sen. Cassidy’s large war chest. Again, according to the Cassidy polling analysis, the Senator’s campaign reports having $26 million in the bank, the year-end Federal Election Commission filing to be released early next month.

According to Rep. Letlow’s Sept. 30 campaign filing, she held just under $2.3 million in her account, but her total will likely be larger when the latest disclosure reports are made public. For his part, Fleming posted slightly over $2 million.

As previously reported, Louisiana has a new nominating system. Instead of a jungle primary held concurrently with the general election, Louisiana nominations for federal and certain state offices will revert to a traditional partisan primary and runoff procedure. If no candidate receives majority support in the first vote on May 16, the top two finishers advance to a June 27 runoff election.

In addition to Sen. Cassidy, Rep. Letlow, Treasurer Fleming, and Sen. Miguez, seven more Republicans have entered the race. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of these individuals actually follow through and complete their final statement of candidacy. State Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro) had also announced her candidacy but withdrew after Rep. Letlow entered the race.

The Louisiana and Texas Republican primaries feature the party’s two incumbent Senators, Cassidy and John Cornyn, who are in danger of losing their renomination efforts. Both the Texas primary on March 3 and Louisiana in May will be closely watched until the vote count is complete. Expect both the Texas and Louisiana campaigns to run at a frenetic pace throughout the remainder of the primary calendar.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

Updates on Louisiana, Maryland,
& Ohio Redistricting Plans

Maryland Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version on DavesRedistricting.org.)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

Redistricting

We saw redistricting moves occur in several states last week. Below is a recap of the action:

Louisiana

As the redistricting world awaits the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the Bayou State’s Governor and legislature passed legislation to move the state’s primary in anticipation of a ruling coming well after the first of next year.

Previously, the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) changed the Louisiana primary system to do away with their jungle primary held concurrently with the general election and an accompanying December runoff for those races where no candidate received majority support on the initial vote.

The new primary system returned to a partisan format scheduled for April 18, 2026, with a two-candidate runoff on May 30 for the races where no candidate received majority support.

The legislation passed earlier last week, now on its way to Gov. Landry for his signature, would move the initial primary date to May 16 with the associated runoff election on June 27.

Changing the primary will give the state more time to adjust their congressional map to adhere to whatever the Supreme Court eventually decides. The change also gives the candidates more time to campaign in the Senate primary where several contenders are mounting GOP nomination challenges against Sen. Bill Cassidy.

Maryland

It appears the Maryland legislature will not engage in another redistricting. According to a report from The Down Ballot political blog, state Senate President Bill Ferguson (D-Baltimore) sent a letter to his colleagues saying that the Senate leadership “is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle congressional redistricting.”

Sen. Ferguson’s argument is that redrawing the current map “… could reopen the ability for someone to challenge” the present plan upon which the Democrats were able to routinely claim seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. Basically, the Senate President was explaining he was not going to risk a 7D-1R map for an uncertain attempt to add one more to the Democratic column.

Without the Senate’s participation, redistricting in Maryland will not occur. Thus, we see a break for the state’s lone Republican Congressman, Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), and the national Republican goal of maximizing their number of seats through mid-decade redistricting.

Ohio

The Buckeye State has both a complicated redistricting system and law. The process first starts with a commission of elected officials who authorize the drawing of maps, then votes upon and presents the approved plan to each house of the legislature. A map must receive three-fifths support in both houses to remain in place for the entire decade. Passing with a lesser amount means the plan can stand for only two elections. The Governor retains veto power over the completed legislative process.

Since the 2021 congressional plan failed to receive three-fifths support in both the state House of Representatives and Senate, it could only remain in place for the 2022 and 2024 elections. Therefore, Ohio must enact a new congressional plan before the 2026 election.

The bipartisan commission came to an agreement on a map last week, which will now be reported to the legislature. Understanding that the Republicans have strong majorities in both houses, but not three-fifths strength, the plan appears to give the GOP a chance to increase their delegation share by two seats.

The partisan percentage increase in both principal targets, however, appears to still make Democratic victories possible. The purpose of the compromise is to obtain enough bipartisan support to keep a new map intact for the decade’s remaining elections.

Statistics for the districts are not yet publicly available, but the new plan appears to make Districts 7, 9, and 13 slightly more Republican.

District 7 is already a Republican seat that two-term Congressman Max Miller (R-Rocky River) represents. The 9th is veteran Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored seat where her victory margin under the current boundaries fell to less than a percentage point in 2024. Finally, the politically marginal Akron anchored 13th CD is also made a bit redder. Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) has averaged just under 52 percent in two consecutive elections.

Both Reps. Kaptur and Sykes were going to be major 2026 Republican targets and this map will make them only slightly more vulnerable.

Republicans were also looking to target 1st District Congressman Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati), but this map keeps the district in the marginal category and likely makes the Congressman at least a slight favorite for re-election.

Much more will be known when the map statistics and voting history under the new boundaries become publicly available. Until then, the swing margins remain points of conjecture.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

Senate

The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers and today we begin to preview the resource standing of the key 2026 statewide contests. This Update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, we’ll look at Michigan through Texas.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for Governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders.

Hudson has $357,000 cash-on-hand, while Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

Florida

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash-on-hand.

The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy last week; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account.

Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state Attorney General. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.

Georgia

First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser, having raised more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account.

The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary, which will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.

Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Dooley, $1.7 million.

The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.

Illinois

Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next Senator.

At this point, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank.

His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash-on-hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.

Kentucky

Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor.

Three candidates are vying for the nomination: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. Norris has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr.

While Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Cameron has just under $630,000. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the Sept. 30 disclosure deadline.

Louisiana

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) last week announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.

At the end of last week, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run, as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are State Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff and ex-Congressman John Fleming; state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia); and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican Senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 US Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members — Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate.

In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash-on-hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank.

Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy last week. Like several others in this report, the Governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report.

Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.

US Supreme Court Hears
Louisiana Redistricting Case

Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District / Graphic by VeriteNews.org

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Yesterday, the nine United States Supreme Court justices heard oral arguments for the second time on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. How this case is decided could have a major impact on the 2026 US House election cycle and in district elections throughout the remainder of the current decade.

At issue is Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District (in red on above map), which stretches from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. This CD was put in place before the 2024 election in response to a court order to create a second majority minority district that would elect an African-American Representative. Ironically, this very draw was rejected in a 1994 ruling, but the 2024 map drawers reinstated the same district 30 years later.

A lawsuit was filed over the redraw and the plaintiffs earned a favorable decision from the initial three-judge federal panel constructed to hear the case, but the US Supreme Court stayed the ruling. After briefs and oral arguments were conducted, the high court chose not to rule in June opting for a second round of oral arguments, which were held yesterday.

According to news stories and observations, impressions suggest that several justices appear favorable toward changing the particulars that heretofore have governed the parameters relating to minority district construction. Whether a majority exists to do so and to what extent change may be forthcoming remains unanswered.

The eventual decision could have wide-ranging ramifications to maps in several other states, and not just those where legislators are currently either drawing new districts or contemplating such action.

A SCOTUS decision to uphold the three-judge panel ruling would allow the Louisiana legislature to return to the previous map, or a similar one. That particular map produced a 5R-1D partisan division. The current Louisiana congressional delegation consists of a 4R-2D split.

If the three-judge panel ruling is upheld or expanded upon, the Alabama map would be affected because that state is in virtually the same situation as Louisiana with regard to minority district composition. Such a decision would also virtually eliminate any serious challenge to the new Texas map.

Therefore, with the updated Lone Star State map projected to net Republicans five seats — and should the previously described scenario in Louisiana and Alabama come to fruition and before the 2026 election — the Republicans could net seven seats from the three states. Even if the California redistricting referendum passes and the Democrats net five seats to neutralize the GOP’s Texas gains, the net Republican increase from the four domains would be two. Adding the new completed Missouri map, and the Republicans would see a net three-seat national gain.

Other states in some way, shape, or form considering redistricting either with a special legislative session or when their next regular session begins, or through a court directive are Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Ohio. These could favor Republicans. While Illinois, Maryland, and Utah would likely produce Democratic gains.

Not all of these states will move forward, but should the Supreme Court ruling on the Louisiana case be of a landmark proportion, some of these states and others may then be compelled to follow suit.

Another factor is when SCOTUS rules. Louisiana now has an April partisan primary schedule, so one would think the ruling will be revealed in time for the nomination elections to be conducted as scheduled. A later ruling would suggest that a great deal of the redistricting action will greatly affect the 2028 House election schedule instead of 2026.

We can expect many future political twists and turns in the pending redistricting war, but the catalyst to developing clear district construction criteria lies with the US Supreme Court.