Tag Archives: Louisiana

Letlow Wins Louisiana Senate Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 29, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R)

The late polling numbers suggesting that Saturday’s Louisiana Republican Senate runoff was headed for a photo finish proved inaccurate.

Despite ballot test data indicating that State Treasurer John Fleming had a chance to upset Rep. Julia Letlow (R Start), the Congresswoman instead posted a strong 57-43 percent victory, closely mirroring polling released shortly after the May 16 primary.

Rep. Letlow is now the official Republican nominee, which almost guarantees her entrance into the Senate next year.

A major theme in the later phase of the campaign was the debate over a carbon capture procedure, an issue on which Dr. Fleming sharply criticized both Rep. Letlow and Gov. Jeff Landry (R).

The carbon topic drew significant media attention and dominated much of the advertising, particularly from the Fleming campaign. At the time, many political analysts believed the carbon capture issue was moving votes, helping explain Fleming’s apparent rise in late polling.

Immediately after the primary, Rep. Letlow opened with an average 57-36 percent lead based on two public polls – Harper Polling (May 18-19; 457 likely GOP runoff voters) and Kaplan Strategies (May 24-26; 850 likely GOP runoff voters) – each showing nearly identical results.

As the runoff approached, however, the race appeared to tighten. BDPC (June 15–16; likely GOP runoff voters) found Letlow ahead just 40–38 percent. JMC Analytics (June 21–22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters), polling for the Fleming campaign, even showed its candidate leading 45-40 percent. The final pre runoff survey, from Quantus Insights (June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), placed Letlow back in front but with only a 48-45 percent edge.

With these late polls suggesting a toss up, uncertainty surrounded the final days of the campaign. Ultimately, however, the close polling proved inaccurate, and Rep. Letlow secured a decisive win.

Turnout for the runoff was abnormally high. According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s unofficial report, 316,538 votes were cast in the Republican contest, 79 percent of the May 16 primary total. Runoffs typically draw between 50 percent and 67 percent of primary participation, making Saturday’s turnout unusually strong and likely benefiting Letlow.

Dr. Fleming performed well in his former 4th Congressional District, carrying most parishes in the region. He previously represented western Louisiana for four terms in the US House before risking the seat for an unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid. The rest of the state, aside from Orleans Parish, voted solidly for Letlow. She dominated her home 5th District and performed strongly in southern Louisiana’s Cajun Country.

Although Dr. Fleming had a long-standing relationship with President Trump – including service in two Administration roles and as Deputy White House Chief of Staff – he did not receive the all-important presidential endorsement.

President Trump instead announced his support for Rep. Letlow early, even before she formally entered the race, believing she was the strongest candidate to topple Sen. Bill Cassidy in the primary and hold the seat for Republicans in the general election. It is likely that this pre-election analysis will prove correct in November.

Democrats also held a Senate runoff. Farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate Jamie Davis defeated businessman and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett by a wide 80–20 percent margin. Democratic turnout was under 197,000, far below Republican participation. Davis now enters the general election as a significant underdog against Rep. Letlow.

While national Democrats are seeking to expand the Senate map, Louisiana is an unlikely target for a major investment of campaign resources. With a statewide partisan lean of 58.3R – 41.7%D (Dave’s Redistricting App) and a Democratic nominee without a national fundraising base, the 2026 Louisiana Senate race is expected to be relatively quiet and culminate in a Republican victory.

Louisiana Senate Runoff Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 26 2026

US Senate

Louisiana GOP voters will close the loop on the party’s Senate nomination process tomorrow, as the runoff election will effectively end the marathon campaign for the state’s junior Senate seat. The May primary drew significant national attention when the challengers successfully denied two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy even a runoff ballot line.

Saturday’s runoff appears closer than many expected at the outset. Shortly after the primary, Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start) posted large polling leads over State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. As the race concludes, however, tomorrow’s outcome now appears uncertain.

The Louisiana campaign became a focal point when President Trump renewed his attacks on Sen. Cassidy over Cassidy’s impeachment vote in early 2021. Upon returning to office, the President pledged to settle the score, and his endorsed candidate, Rep. Letlow, initially performed as well as he had hoped.

Trump publicly backed the Congresswoman early – even before she had formally decided to run for the Senate. Yet Dr. Fleming, also a physician and wealthy businessman who owns or previously owned 38 Subway franchises and developed 168 UPS Stores, is likewise close to Trump.

After serving four terms in the US House and unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2016, Dr. Fleming was appointed to several posts by President Trump: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Health Technology Reform, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and finally White House Deputy Chief of Staff under then-Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

When Dr. Fleming ran for State Treasurer in 2023, he earned endorsements from then-former President Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R‑LA). A Fleming victory tomorrow would therefore bring another Trump ally to the Senate, even though the President supported Rep. Letlow. Trump believed she would be the stronger candidate against Sen. Cassidy in a Republican runoff, which drove his decision to back her over Fleming.

Early in the runoff cycle, Rep. Letlow appeared to justify that confidence. In late May, she opened polling leads of 52-35 percent and 52-37 percent in surveys from Harper Polling and Kaplan Strategies.

The tide began to shift in mid‑June. Dr. Fleming’s decision to invest more than $11 million of his own money into his campaign communications program appears wise. Rep. Letlow’s average 16‑point advantage in early polling shrank to two points (40-38 percent; BDPC; June 21-22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) and three points (48-45 percent; Quantas Insights; June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters).

Another poll, from JMC Analytics (conducted for the Fleming campaign; June 21–22; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), even showed Dr. Fleming pulling ahead with a 45–40 percent lead.

Earlier in the cycle, Dr. Fleming appeared to be maneuvering around Federal Election Commission reporting deadlines by loaning his campaign $2 million before each filing period, then repaying himself afterward, only to re‑loan the funds before the next deadline. Ultimately, however, he invested heavily and strategically. His final $11.5 million personal loan allowed him to build a major spending advantage over Rep. Letlow, whose campaign reported raising $4.3 million through June 7.

While the Congresswoman may still hold on to win the runoff, it is clear that Dr. Fleming has the momentum heading into Election Day and effectively timed his campaign peak period.

Saturday’s winner will become Louisiana’s next Senator, as Democrats are not positioned to mount a competitive general election challenge. The Republican runoff should therefore be treated as the decisive election for this seat.

Turnout for the May 16 Republican primary was 401,174 individuals. Runoff participation is typically much lower, so the campaign that best identifies and turns out its supporters will prevail tomorrow night. If the late polling is accurate, this race should now be considered a toss‑up.

Louisiana Sen. Cassidy Loses

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 18, 2026

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) loses challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy suffered a decisive defeat in Saturday’s Republican primary, even failing to qualify for the runoff election.

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), with President Trump’s public support, finished first with a strong 44.8 percent of the vote against three opponents, falling just over five percentage points short of an outright victory. She will advance to the June 27 runoff against State Treasurer, physician, and former Congressman John Fleming, who outpaced Sen. Cassidy to secure second place. Dr. Fleming finished 3.5 percentage points ahead of the two‑term incumbent, a margin of nearly 14,000 votes.

Letlow carried 53 of Louisiana’s 64 parishes — and potentially 54 once all ballots are tallied. She trails Dr. Fleming by a single vote in Grant Parish. Including Grant, Dr. Fleming won eight parishes, all located within the 4th Congressional District that he represented for eight years. Sen. Cassidy managed to prevail in only three parishes, two in the New Orleans metro area and one in Baton Rouge.

The result marked another impressive primary victory for President Trump. He endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she became a Senate candidate. Sen. Cassidy had been Trump’s top Republican intra‑party target, as he is one of only two GOP Senators on the ballot this year — the other being Susan Collins from Maine — who voted for the 2021 impeachment just days before Trump left office after losing the 2020 election.

Clearly, Sen. Cassidy did not anticipate Trump’s return to the Presidency, which proved a grave political miscalculation. Of course, the Senator will remain in office to serve the final seven months of the current term.

Cassidy was first elected in 2014 and re‑elected in 2020, both under Louisiana’s jungle primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. He defeated three‑term Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) in the 2014 runoff by a 56-44 percent margin. In 2020, he won re‑election outright in the jungle primary, earning 59.3 percent of the vote against 14 opponents, only one of whom was a Republican.

Many Louisiana political observers believe that unseating Sen. Cassidy was one factor motivating the legislature and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) to change the state’s nomination structure. Analysts have suggested that Cassidy would likely have performed better under the previous jungle primary system, where Democrats and Independents could also participate.

Instead of holding a November jungle primary concurrently with the general election followed by December runoffs for any race in which no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, the legislature and Governor replaced the system with early closed partisan primaries for federal offices and select Louisiana state contests.

Ironically, because of the ongoing redistricting process, primaries for the US House races were not held on Saturday. Once a new 2026 congressional map is finalized, those campaigns will return to the traditional November/December schedule. As before, any candidate who secures a majority in the November vote will be elected outright.

For the Democrats, Saturday’s overwhelming first‑place finisher was farmer Jamie Davis, who captured 47.4 percent of the vote and topped his two opponents in all 64 parishes. It remains unclear whom he will face in the runoff, as the current second‑place candidate, businessman and Navy veteran Gary Crockett, leads non-profit organization executive Nicolas Albares by only 284 votes with several thousand ballots still uncounted.

In both parties, the first‑place finishers came close enough to the 50 percent mark that Rep. Letlow and Davis enter their respective June 27 runoff elections as virtual prohibitive favorites. Given Louisiana’s strong Republican lean, Rep. Letlow would then become the clear general‑election favorite once the runoffs conclude.

The Cassidy defeat brings the number of open US Senate races in the 2026 cycle to 11 – seven from the Republican side and four from the Democratic column. The next major Senate contest arrives on May 26 in Texas, where Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing for the Republican nomination in what is expected to be a very close finish.

Louisiana Senate Primary Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 15, 2026

Primary

Voting in the hard-fought Louisiana Republican primary among Sen. Bill Cassidy, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), and State Treasurer John Fleming takes place tomorrow, and only two things appear certain. First, the race is headed to a runoff because none of the three candidates has majority support. Second, one contender will be eliminated, but polling has not definitively shown which one.

Ever since President Trump was re-elected, it became clear that he would seek to defeat Sen. Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican nomination contest. Cassidy was one of two Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial, likely under the assumption that the outgoing president would never return to office.

True to form, Trump is now seeking political retribution. The only other Republican Senator on the 2026 ballot who voted to convict him in the impeachment trial is Maine’s Susan Collins. But because Republicans view her as their only chance of holding that seat, she has thus far avoided presidential opposition.

President Trump endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she officially entered the Senate race. The campaign’s true surprise, however, is State Treasurer and former Congressman Fleming’s strength. He has turned the Senate primary into a genuine three-way contest – a development few observers anticipated.

On the eve of the primary, it remains unclear which of the three candidates will be eliminated tomorrow, and it is entirely possible that Sen. Cassidy could even fail to qualify for the runoff election.

Four polls have been released since April 26 – from Emerson College, BDPC (a Louisiana polling firm), Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, and Quantus Insights. The two challengers have led in at least one of the recent surveys, while the incumbent has failed to place first.

The Emerson College poll (April 24-26; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds a virtual two-way tie, with Sen. Cassidy trailing outside the survey’s margin of error. The ballot test shows Fleming leading Letlow, 28-27 percent, while Sen. Cassidy attracts only 21 percent support.

The BDPC poll (April 28-30; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) projects Letlow leading beyond the survey’s margin of error, with Sen. Cassidy and Dr. Fleming tied for second place but well behind. The ballot test favors Letlow, 33-21-21 percent.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates study (April 4-5; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview and text) also finds Rep. Letlow leading, with Sen. Cassidy in second place and Dr. Fleming falling short of runoff qualification. The Fabrizio ballot test posts a 32-26-21 percent split.

The most recent survey, from Quantus Insights (May 6-7; 1,015 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online), paints yet another distinctly different picture. Here, Rep. Letlow leads with 42 percent support, the strongest showing for any candidate in the recent polling, though still well below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Thus, despite Letlow’s sizable advantage, the Quantus numbers still point toward a secondary election.

Dr. Fleming places second with 30 percent support in the Quantus result, while Sen. Cassidy trails badly at just 20 percent among Republican primary voters.

The cumulative results of these polls suggest that Rep. Letlow is likely to qualify for the second round, while it remains a toss-up whether Sen. Cassidy or Dr. Fleming will join her in the runoff. This is a rare situation in which, on the eve of a primary election, it is uncertain whether an incumbent will even advance to the runoff.

One area in which Sen. Cassidy leads is campaign resources. Through the April 26 pre-primary reporting period, he had raised $13.3 million and retained more than $5.5 million for the final stretch before the primary. By comparison, Dr. Fleming raised $11.2 million, including $9.6 million from individuals other than himself, while Rep. Letlow has raised just under $4.4 million.

Since the 2026 election has thus far proved to be turnout rather than persuasion driven, Sen. Cassidy using his financial advantage to deploy his vote base to the maximum degree will greatly improve his chances of securing a runoff position.

With inconsistent polling results over a prolonged period, virtually anything could happen tomorrow. The runoff election is scheduled for June 27.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

Redistricting Disarray: Alabama Yes, Georgia No, Louisiana Back to Jungle

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 4, 2026

Redistricting

The Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana racial gerrymandering case has thrown the House election cycle into disarray. As a result of the high court’s decision, redistricting options are again being contemplated in several states.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), despite previously stating she opposed redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections, issued a proclamation on Friday calling the legislature into special session later today to redraw the state’s congressional and state Senate maps.

Alabama is in exactly the same situation now as Louisiana. Under court orders, both states were required to redraw their 2021 congressional maps to add a majority minority district. Following last week’s Supreme Court Callais ruling, those revised maps are now invalid.

It is probable that the Alabama legislature will revert to a map like the one enacted in 2021. Such a plan would collapse Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Montgomery) current District 2 and shift the seat back to southeast Alabama. That change would likely return the state’s congressional delegation to a 6R–1D alignment, rather than the current 5R–2D split.

The principal beneficiary of such a map would be former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in a 2024 paired‑incumbent primary. He is currently running in the reconfigured 1st District now that incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R) is seeking a Senate seat. Carl, however, trails state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) in a recently released poll.

A new map would likely restore Mobile County as the population anchor of District 1 and shift District 2 back to southeast Alabama. Such a draw would allow both Carl and Marques to run in separate districts. While each would still face primary competition under a new configuration, they would no longer be forced to run against one another.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, which means the legislature will have to act quickly. The most likely scenario is that the regular primary proceeds as planned for all offices except the US House of Representatives and state Senate. Once new maps are enacted, a separate filing period and new primary dates for those offices would be set for later in the year.

Georgia is another state that could potentially redraw its congressional map, but with candidate filing already closed and the May 19 primary fast approaching, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is taking the opposite position of Gov. Ivey. Kemp said he does not support redistricting for 2026, though indicated he would be open to considering a new map for the 2028 election cycle.

In Louisiana, state Senate President Cameron Henry (R‑Metairie) said Friday that the 2026 election scheduling decision will likely return the state’s US House races to the jungle primary format that has been in place since the late 1970s.

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already suspended the May 16 primary for US House campaigns in response to the Supreme Court ruling. The other affected contests, most notably the US Senate race, will continue to proceed under the May 16 partisan primary schedule.

With other offices still operating under the jungle primary system, which runs concurrently with the November general election and employs December runoffs when no candidate wins a majority, it is likely the Governor will simply return the US House races to this previous format and election calendar. Such would be the least expensive way for the state to conduct elections under a revised schedule.

Once the Virginia state Supreme Court renders a decision upholding the April 21 redistricting referendum, and the new Florida plan wins approval from its state Supreme Court after a lawsuit is formally filed, along with Alabama and Louisiana overcoming the legal objections to moving their primaries, the national redistricting landscape will finally come into clear focus.

Assuming all of these courts rule as suggested, we can reasonably predict that the new California and Texas maps would offset one another in terms of partisan gains, as would the changes in Virginia and Florida. Republicans would probably gain one seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, with the potential for one or two additional seats in Ohio. Democrats would gain one seat in Utah under that state’s new court‑ordered map.

Therefore, if the national redistricting picture ultimately unfolds as outlined above, the 2026 changes would likely result in Republicans achieving a net gain of four to five seats nationwide.

Louisiana Suspends House Primaries

Louisiana Governor suspends US House elections (view interactive 2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map on Dave’s Redistricting App).

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 1, 2026

House

A day after the US Supreme Court ruled Louisiana’s congressional map an unconstitutional gerrymander, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) issued an executive order affecting the state’s May 16 primary election.

With early voting set to begin tomorrow and the state’s congressional map declared illegal by the nation’s highest court on Wednesday, Gov. Landry moved quickly to suspend the House primaries. He said the nomination election will remain in abeyance to give legislators time to redraw and approve a new congressional map and identified July 15 as the target date for rescheduling the House contests.

All other races, including the US Senate primaries in both parties, will proceed as planned on May 16.

Democrats, and even some Republicans, criticized the decision, arguing that early voting ballots have already been distributed and that postponing only the US House primaries would create confusion and likely depress turnout.

One of the Republican critics, Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces a difficult renomination fight under the new partisan primary system, warned that running two different nomination schedules will mislead voters. For that reason, he opposes allowing the Senate primary to proceed on May 16.

What is likely a more salient reason for Sen. Cassidy’s push to postpone the primary is a new Emerson College poll released yesterday. The survey (April 24–26; 500 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows Sen. Cassidy trailing both former state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), whom President Trump has already endorsed.

The ballot test produced a 28-27-21 percent split, with Fleming narrowly leading Rep. Letlow, and Sen. Cassidy following. Clearly, the race is headed toward a runoff, and it is not even certain that Sen. Cassidy will qualify for the second round.

At the end of 2024, the Louisiana legislature and the Governor overhauled the state’s preliminary election system. The new law created a partisan primary in May of the election year, followed by a June runoff in any race where no candidate secures a majority. Once nominees are chosen, they advance to a November general election, as in all other states.

Previously, Louisiana used a jungle primary system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the same ballot. Any candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round was elected outright. If no one reaches a majority, the top two finishers, again, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

In past years, Louisiana held its initial election concurrently with the national general election. If a runoff was required, the top candidates would meet again in an early December second round. For the state legislature and many statewide offices, including the governorship, that system remains in place. The new partisan primary structure applies only to federal offices and certain designated state positions.

The act of drawing a new congressional map will almost certainly guarantee Republicans at least one additional seat in the current 4R–2D Louisiana delegation. Some observers, most notably reporters at the liberal political blog The Down Ballot, have speculated that Republican legislators might even attempt to convert both Democratic seats. Whether such an effort will materialize remains uncertain.

In addition to Louisiana, other states may also undertake redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Reports indicate that President Trump has urged Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) to eliminate the state’s lone Democratic‑held district; Georgia is also viewed as a potential candidate for a 2026 redraw.

Other states could be in the mix, as well. If such efforts move forward, they will almost certainly unfold on a very compressed timeline.

SCOTUS Decides Louisiana Case;
Florida Rep. Webster to Retire

2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map (view interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Louisiana

The US Supreme Court, months after initially hearing the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, released its ruling yesterday.

In authoring the Court’s opinion, Associate Justice Samuel Alito outlined the reasons the justices upheld the three‑judge panel’s ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found that the congressional map used before the 2024 election constituted a racial gerrymander.

The ruling is viewed as favorable to Republicans and will almost certainly require Louisiana’s congressional map to be redrawn before the 2026 statewide primary on May 16. It is possible that the legislature could simply revert to the 2021 map that was in place for the 2022 election.

Activists in several states are already urging their legislators to redraw congressional maps. Such is the case in Georgia, Mississippi (for their state Supreme Court districts), and potentially South Carolina. The Florida legislature is now likely to pass the map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) produced, which was drawn in anticipation of a favorable Republican Louisiana ruling.

In the Callais decision, Justice Alito outlined the parameters of the Voting Rights Act. He wrote, “Because the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority district, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.”

He further explained when race can be used as a factor in drawing legislative district boundaries. From later in the ruling, Justice Alito stated, “The Court’s precedents have identified “only two compelling interests” that can satisfy strict scrutiny: avoiding imminent and serious risks to human safety in prisons,” and “remediating specific, identified instances of past discrimination that violated the Constitution or a statute.”

Further explaining, the Justice wrote, “Properly understood, §2 thus does not intrude on States’ prerogative to draw districts based on nonracial factors, including to achieve partisan advantage. In short, §2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race. Not only does this interpretation follow from the plain text of §2, but it is consistent with the limited authority that the Fifteenth Amendment confers.”

It remains to be seen which states besides Louisiana will redraw their maps before the 2026 election. Alabama, where officials were also required to add another minority district ahead of the 2024 election, is one possibility. With primary elections already underway in many states, most significant redistricting activity is likely to shift to the 2028 election cycle.

FL-11

Although he would have continued to represent a safely Republican district under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map, eight-term US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) announced just after celebrating his 77th birthday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Webster had been viewed as a potential retirement candidate throughout this election cycle. Under the DeSantis map, his central Florida 11th District is rated as safely Republican. In the proposed FL‑11, President Trump would have recorded a 57.2 to 41.5 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris.

Dan Webster was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1980 and later became the chamber’s first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998, where he went on to serve as Majority Leader.

The number of open House seats has now grown to 64. Thirty-eight of these seats are currently Republican held with 21 from the Democratic column. Five additional open districts have been created as a result of redistricting maps in California, Texas, and Utah.

Of the 64 seats in the open category, only 28 involve members retiring from elective office. This group includes two lawmakers who were paired in a new redistricting map with another incumbent of his own party, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) and Burgess Owens (R-UT).

Twenty-seven Representatives are running for a different office, three have resigned their seats, two districts are open due to the incumbent’s death, and one has already been defeated in his primary election.

Once the Florida redistricting process is resolved, a crowded Republican field is expected to emerge for the now‑open 11th District. The Sunshine State candidate‑filing deadline for US House races is June 12, and the state’s primary is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Texas Redistricting Ruling; Fla. Gov. DeSantis Releases Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Texas Redistricting

In a move that could signal how it may approach the Louisiana racial gerrymandering dispute, the US Supreme Court yesterday took a very unusual step regarding the Texas redistricting appeal.

A majority of the justices voted to issue a reverse summary judgment in the challenge to Texas’s new congressional map. The move effectively overturned the lower court’s ruling without requiring additional briefing or oral argument.

Yesterday’s court action is exceedingly rare, and its use adds weight to predictions that the forthcoming Louisiana decision could become a defining ruling on racial gerrymandering. The Court is scheduled to release additional opinions tomorrow, and it remains unclear whether Callais v. Louisiana will finally be among the cases issued this week.

For more detailed information, visit the Florida Senate redistricting map.

Florida Redistricting

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) yesterday released a new congressional map that he is urging the legislature to approve during the special session scheduled to begin today.

The Governor issued a statement saying that redistricting is necessary because “Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since. Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million [person] Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited.”

Widely viewed as a response to the 10D–1R Virginia map approved by voters last week, the Governor unveiled a Florida proposal that would likely shift the delegation from a 20-8 Republican advantage to a 24-4 advantage.

The current Florida map features 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats. It appears that at least three current Democratic House members — Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) — would likely face significantly more difficult paths for re-election and enter the general election as underdogs.

In a new 23rd District lying in the Ft. Lauderdale area, it is probable that Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) would be paired in a Democratic primary, with the winner favored to hold the seat in the general election.

The sitting Democrats who would have a district on the new map are: Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) and the open 20th District.

In the latter seat, former Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar), who resigned from the House while facing federal indictments in addition to violating 25 House ethics provisions, would see an open Democratic seat in her area. Although she has stepped down from Congress, Cherfilus‑ McCormick has not closed her campaign account and indicated that she intends to run for the new seat.

The new 20th District is one she would likely have been able to hold were it not for her legal troubles. Six other Democrats had already entered the race, and the new configuration suggests that all of them will remain in the contest. Although she is running again, Cherfilus‑McCormick’s prospects for returning to Congress appear slim at best.

The South Florida portion of the map appears to create two new open Republican seats: one coastal district (FL‑25) between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and another to the west (FL‑22) that stretches across the peninsula to the Gulf Coast.

Political data for the proposed districts has not yet been released or analyzed, so decisions about where certain members ultimately run could shift as more information becomes available. For example, because many of the South Florida districts are expected to lean only slightly Republican, Reps. Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz may have multiple potential districts to consider if they choose to remain in Congress, though none would offer a particularly favorable political landscape.

There are still many unanswered questions surrounding the proposed Florida map, but the DeSantis plan is currently the most fully developed option on the Republican side. It remains to be seen if the Governor can capture majority support in each legislative chamber. If he does, the plan would significantly strengthen Republican prospects for retaining their narrow US House majority in the 2026 election.

Cassidy Crushed in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 6, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

A new American Pulse Research & Polling survey finds Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy trending seriously downward in his fight for renomination.

According to the American Pulse data, Sen. Cassidy would be in danger of not even advancing to a runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. In hypothetical runoff pairings, should Sen. Cassidy rebound, he would individually trail both Letlow and Fleming.

The American Pulse poll (March 20-24; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) sees Rep. Letlow topping Fleming and Sen. Cassidy, 31-25-21 percent, respectively. In a potential runoff, Rep. Letlow would lead Fleming, 37-34 percent. With 29 percent of the respondents unsure about this race, such a contest would be rated as too close to call.

Paired with incumbent Cassidy, Rep. Letlow would defeat him by a whopping 30 points according to this respondent sample, 54-24 percent. Fleming fares almost as well against the Senator. In a Fleming-Cassidy runoff, the challenger would lead the incumbent, 49-29 percent.

With a sample size of only 455 individuals for a statewide survey, the error factor would be high because of the small universe. These results, however, are so lopsided that even a wide error margin would still send Cassidy packing particularly because he fares so poorly in a runoff against either opponent.

Sen. Cassidy is facing serious obstacles. Obviously, these polling numbers reveal that the Senator is not popular within the Louisiana conservative vote base. Secondly, his vote to impeach President Trump associated with the January 6th conflict at the Capitol obviously put him at odds with the chief executive, though it is likely that the Senator believed doing so would not cause him future political problems because he obviously believed that Trump would never return to the White House.

As a result, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Letlow, doing so even before she became an official Senate candidate.

Perhaps Sen. Cassidy’s most serious problem, however, is Louisiana’s new nomination structure for federal offices. Since the 1970s, Louisiana has featured a jungle qualification format for all offices. All candidates are placed on the same ballot in an election concurrent with the regular general election. If a candidate records majority support in the first vote, the individual is elected. If not, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advanced to a post-general election runoff.

Under the new Louisiana primary system effective with the 2026 election, registered party members may only vote in their own party primary. If a person is registered as a “No Party” voter, the individual may choose a primary ballot at the polling place. Once selected, the “No Party” voter can then only participate in an associated runoff of the party in which he or she chose for the regular primary election.

In the jungle system, and particularly because the Democrats are currently very weak in Louisiana, Sen. Cassidy was able to attract a segment of their votes. This made him stronger in seeking re-election. In 2026, Democrats will not be allowed to crossover into the Republican primary, just as Republicans will not be allowed to vote in any 2026 Democratic primary.

Therefore, the new partisan primary system gives the Cassidy challengers a boost because endorsements, such as the one from President Trump, will carry more weight within the conservative Republican vote base without any adverse boomerang effect coming from crossover Democrats.

Added together, these obstacles spell trouble for Sen. Cassidy’s re-election chances as the current polls reflect.

The small sample American Pulse survey may not be completely indicative of where the entire Louisiana Republican electorate stands, but the Senator has fared poorly in other statewide polls, as well.

Looking at the last six publicly released Republican primary studies since Feb. 24, Sen. Cassidy has averaged only 26.7 percent support in the surveys testing a three-way contest among the Senator, Rep. Letlow, and Fleming.

As we head toward a May 16 Louisiana Republican primary election and a potential June 27 GOP runoff, Sen. Cassidy today looks to be the Senate incumbent most likely to fail to qualify for the general election.