Tag Archives: South Carolina

A Bit More Senate Clarity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

The South Carolina Republicans and Maine Democrats have made decisions about plans for replacing their respective US Senate nominees, bringing greater logistical clarity to both states’ 2026 US Senate political landscapes.

South Carolina

Darline Graham Nordone

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death has thrown the South Carolina Republican Party into turmoil, and party leaders have now opted to hold an irregular, expedited primary to select a new US Senate nominee. Candidate filing will close on July 28 for a statewide Aug. 11 primary, followed by an Aug. 25 runoff if no contender wins a majority. The eventual Republican nominee will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary on June 9.

The party is working with the Department of War to satisfy the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires adequate notice and ballot access for covered voters. Meeting these requirements under such a compressed timeline remains a major challenge.

In the interim, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has appointed the late Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill the vacancy. She will serve until Jan. 3, 2027, unless she chooses to enter the special primary. Nordone has not announced her intentions, but she is not expected to run.

Most early interest in the Republican nomination is coming from the US House delegation, which creates additional logistical complications for both the state party and House GOP leadership. Reps. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston), both of whom ran for Governor – Norman finishing a close third and Mace placing a distant fifth – are unencumbered because they are not seeking House re-election.

Other members expressing varying degrees of interest include Reps. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), William Timmons (R‑Greenville), and Russell Fry (R‑Murrells Inlet/Myrtle Beach), with Fry appearing the most serious about entering the race.

Each of these three, however, faces a significant hurdle: they are already the official Republican nominees in their respective House districts. Because a candidate cannot seek two federal offices in the same election, entering the Senate primary would require withdrawing their congressional nominations.

While the Republican primary is a stand-alone vote, the regular general election, where Sen. Graham’s successor will ultimately be chosen, would feature both the US Senate and congressional contests.

Thus, should one or all of the aforementioned three House members enter the Senate special – win or lose – they would have to resign as the congressional district party nominee. This would lead to the district Republican Party apparatus also having to choose new nominees in the affected districts.

More developments are expected in the coming days as the party works to stabilize its nomination process and navigate the legal and logistical challenges because of Sen. Graham’s passing.

Maine

The Maine Democratic Party has scheduled a snap convention in Bangor on July 25 to select a replacement for withdrawn US Senate nominee Graham Platner. After delivering a video address late last week, Platner formally submitted his withdrawal papers to the Maine Secretary of State.

The convention will consist of 601 voting delegates: the 101 members of the Democratic State Committee and 500 county‑based delegates apportioned according to the raw vote totals Kamala Harris received in 2024. Because Harris performed strongest in southern Maine, the delegate pool will be heavily weighted toward that region, even though the in‑person convention is being held in Bangor. The northern location may simply reflect the challenge of securing a large venue on short notice.

In order to receive convention delegate votes, each individual must obtain 500 petition signatures from registered Democratic voters, with at least 50 coming from eight different counties. All signatures must be collected and returned to the proper election authorities by July 21.

This is a more difficult task than the seemingly small numbers indicate because the time frame is so short. Therefore, it is unclear exactly how many prospective candidates will qualify for the convention.

Under the party’s announced rules, once the candidate field is finalized, the five contenders receiving the most votes on the first ballot will advance to subsequent rounds. Voting will continue until one candidate secures a majority of the 601 delegates, assuming full attendance.

Several individuals have already begun positioning themselves for the nomination. Three losing gubernatorial candidates – former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, who finished first in the initial vote but lost under Ranked Choice Voting; former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who placed third; and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth – are taking steps toward entering the race. Former congressional aide Jordan Wood, who placed a close third in the initial 2nd District primary vote, and fourth‑place finisher Paige Loud have also expressed interest.

Sen. Lindsay Graham Passes; What to Look for Next in South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 13, 2026

Senate

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R‑SC) sudden and tragic death over the weekend has dramatically altered South Carolina’s 2026 federal political landscape and created several urgent procedural questions.

On June 9, Sen. Graham won renomination, making him the official Republican nominee for the November general election. Democrats nominated pediatrician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

Two separate processes now come into play.

First, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) will appoint a replacement to serve out the balance of Sen. Graham’s term, which ends when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The Governor may choose either a caretaker or someone who could later compete in the general election. Because this Senate seat is already on the ballot in 2026, a special election is unlikely, though one specific scenario could still trigger a subsequent vote.

Secondly, the South Carolina Republican Party leaders must determine how to replace Sen. Graham as the GOP nominee. Reports indicate party leaders, in consultation with Gov. McMaster, are preparing to hold a snap primary, with a candidate filing deadline potentially as early as July 21 and a primary on Aug. 11 or 18. A runoff, if needed, could occur as early as Aug. 25.

A major obstacle is compliance with the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires 45 days’ notice for elections involving covered voters. The proposed timeline does not meet this requirement. As a result, the South Carolina Republicans reportedly plan to request a waiver from the Department of War to permit an expedited nomination election.

Even if granted, such a waiver would almost certainly prompt legal challenges. Democrats would likely sue in federal court to overturn the decision. If Republicans lost, their remaining option would be to petition the US Supreme Court. All of this would consume valuable time and complicate the calendar.

If the legal strategy fails, Republicans could face the possibility of Sen. Graham’s name remaining on the November ballot. In that scenario, the party would need to spend resources educating voters to cast ballots for the late Senator, triggering a 2027 special election once he is posthumously elected.

Given the compressed timeline, clarity on the GOP’s approach could come as early as today.

Names are already surfacing about who may seek the Senate seat if there is an election, assuming that Gov. McMaster appoints a caretaker who won’t become a candidate. Reports suggest that the Governor may be in the process of asking Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nardone, if she would have interest in serving as the interim appointee.

Individuals potentially coming to the forefront include Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who lost the primary for Governor and is therefore not a re-election candidate, and 7th District Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrells Inlet). A tweet surfaced that indicated Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), whose son, Attorney General Alan Wilson, is the Republican gubernatorial nominee would also be interested in competing for the Senate position.

All three already have active federal campaign committees and could quickly pivot to a Senate race. Prior to the primary, Fry reported over $950,000 cash on hand, Wilson just over $200,000, and Norman under $100,000. All federal funds could be transferred to a Senate campaign.

Reps. Fry and Wilson could be at the center of another controversy. They are already the Republican nominees in their individual congressional districts, meaning if they enter the Senate race, and one became the Senate nominee, he could be on the ballot for two federal offices in the same general election on Nov. 3. This may mean resigning from the House and thus causing another congressional vacancy.

The South Carolina Election Commission would need to determine whether a candidate may simultaneously seek two federal offices, whether one nomination must be relinquished, or whether dual candidacy is prohibited.

South Carolina will draw intense political attention in the coming week, similar to what Democrats faced in Maine following the Graham Platner withdrawal. With Sen. Graham’s passing, the number of open US Senate seats for the 2026 general election increases to 14 (10 Republicans and 4 Democrats).

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.

Major Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Three more state primaries and one runoff are on today’s political calendar, featuring several major contests. Primary voters in Maryland, New York, and Utah will cast their final ballots for nomination, while South Carolina Republicans choose their gubernatorial and 1st District congressional nominees in runoff elections.

Maryland

Republicans will select a candidate to challenge Gov. Wes Moore (D), though the GOP winner will enter November as a severe underdog.

Several congressional races are drawing attention. All seven Maryland US House incumbents seeking re‑election face primary challengers, though five of those contests appear noncompetitive.

The marquee race is in the state’s western 6th District, where former Congressman David Trone (D), who vacated the seat in 2024 for an unsuccessful Senate bid, now seeks to reclaim it from his successor, Rep. April McClain Delaney (D‑Potomac). Trone, the billionaire founder of Total Wine & More, has spent roughly $30 million on the race, while Delaney has countered with nearly $9 million. Polling has been inconsistent, though Delaney appears to have a slight edge.

In Baltimore, City Councilman Mark Conway is challenging veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D‑Baltimore), one of several races nationwide where younger Democrats are raising age and vitality concerns about long‑serving incumbents. Rep. Mfume, who is 77 years old, is again favored to prevail.

Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D‑Mechanicsville) retirement after 45 years of congressional service has triggered a crowded Democratic primary in the safely blue 5th District, with 23 candidates competing.

Establishment figures including Rep. Hoyer, Gov. Moore, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks have endorsed state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D‑Bowie), though he has been outspent by healthcare company executive Quincy Bareebe and former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn. Other notable contenders include state Sen. Arthur Ellis (D-Charles County) and former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, though neither appears to have gained enough momentum to finish first.

New York

With the gubernatorial nominations effectively settled – Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) will easily secure their primaries tonight – the focus shifts to several competitive congressional races.

Two incumbents are on the political hot seat tonight and upsets are possible.

In Brooklyn’s 7th District, four Democrats are vying to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D), serving her 17th term. Three elected officials: Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, and NYC Councilwoman Julie Won, are the leading contenders. New York’s plurality election system means tonight’s vote will decide the nominees regardless of percentage attained.

In the 10th District, former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, running as the Democratic Socialist candidate with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani along with their associated organizations, is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman (D). Polling shows that Rep. Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss company fortune, is significantly trailing despite outspending Lander 4:1. Lander scoring an upset victory is very possible.

The 12th District, vacated by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D‑NYC), features eight Democrats competing for the politically safe CD. Four major contenders: attorney George Conway, Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, and John “Jack” Bouvier Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, are locked in a competitive race. Early polling showed Bores and Lasher trading the lead, but no recent data has been released.

In the 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D‑Harlem) faces his toughest challenge since winning his initial congressional primary in 2016. Community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier has built a strong ground operation and performed well in polling. Two June surveys showed Espaillat at 35 percent support, and one (Data for Progress, June 3-9; 319 likely NY-13 Democratic primary voters) even had Chevalier leading 39–35 percent; therefore, we see another incumbent upset possibility.

In Upstate District 17, a key November battleground, five Democrats are competing to challenge two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River). Former National Security Council official Cait Conley has led in recent polling and is favored to clinch victory tonight.

Utah

Redistricting has significantly reshaped Utah’s congressional map, creating a new Salt Lake City-anchored Democratic seat. Four Democrats are competing, with former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Nate Blouin (D‑Salt Lake City) emerging as the top contenders. Early polling suggested Rep. McAdams held a significant advantage. McAdams is favored to win tonight, which will pave his return to Congress.

Despite radical changes to district boundaries, GOP Reps. Blake Moore (R‑Salt Lake City), Celeste Maloy (R‑Cedar City), and Mike Kennedy (R‑Alpine) are expected to win renomination. Rep. Kennedy is unopposed in the new 4th District despite the seat being completely different from the 3rd District he won in 2024. Rep. Burgess Owens (R‑Salt Lake City) opted to retire, thus avoiding a paired Republican primary for Reps. Maloy or Kennedy.

South Carolina

In the Republican gubernatorial runoff today, four‑term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), is likely to score a big victory. Several polls show him holding substantial leads, and President Trump has just issued a co‑endorsement after previously backing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Wilson is expected to win easily this evening and claim the Governorship in November.

In the open 1st District, a close race is expected between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R‑Daniel Island), who finished first and second in the June 9 primary. The winner will be a strong favorite in November. Incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston) vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor.

Yesterday’s Primary Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Primaries

Voters finalized, or nearly finalized, their nomination votes yesterday in four states, and the generally expected results were produced though some featured close endings.

While the South Carolina Republican Governor’s campaign was thought to be headed toward a razor-thin vote margin among five candidates, instead the race ended with two clear runoff participants. In Maine, where one individual posted clear leads in polls during the length of the campaign, saw a very close five-way contest advancing to Ranked Choice Voting rounds.

Maine

In the Senate race against no active primary opposition, controversial oyster farmer Graham Platner won the Democratic primary with approximately 72 percent of the vote. Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her Senate campaign when it became obvious that she could not overtake Platner, recorded approximately 20 percent of the vote.

Sen. Susan Collins was unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. The Collins-Platner general election will be another tough campaign, but a much different one than she faced in 2020. In that election, Sen. Collins’ opponent was a seasoned politician in then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon.

This time, it is an opponent portraying himself as a local working man but as more becomes known about him, many of his previous statements lead to questions about his veracity. Count on hearing a great deal about the Maine Senate race in the general election.

The Democratic Governor’s campaign will take some time to unfold. While Dr. Nirav Shah held healthy leads in polls throughout the year, four finished within six points of one another. With Dr. Shah placing first with only 26.5 percent, the Ranked Choice rounds will determine the outcome.

It is possible that any of the four, Dr. Shah, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows all have a path to victory in the Ranked Choice rounds. This race will consume at least a week to decide and possibly more.

For the Republicans, RCV rounds will also be required though former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles has a substantial 18 percentage point lead. Therefore, both gubernatorial campaigns are headed to political overtime.

In the 2nd Congressional District, the Democratic field will go to the Ranked Choice Voting rounds as state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), former congressional aide Jordan Wood, and State Auditor Matt Dunlap are all within a three percentage point split. Fourth place finisher Paige Loud will be eliminated when the other three advance to the RCV rounds.

It will likely be more than a week before we also know the outcome of this campaign. The eventual winner will face former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the open general election. Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) did not seek re-election.

Nevada

The Nevada gubernatorial campaign was a non-event. Gov. Joe Lombardo received just short of 92 percent in the Republican primary and Attorney General Aaron Ford was a 65 percent winner on the Democratic side. A close general election race is expected. In a point of good news for the GOP, approximately 14,000 more Republicans than Democrats are projected to have voted in the respective primaries.

In the House races, all three Las Vegas Democratic incumbents were easily renominated, and each Republican favorite also won.

In District 1, state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) will oppose veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas). The Congresswoman is favored for re-election, but Sen. Buck is clearly the best candidate the GOP has filed in this district.

In CD 3, musical composer and video gaming company co-owner Marty O’Donnell was an easy Republican primary winner giving him the opportunity of facing four-term Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in one of the few districts that supported President Trump but sent a Democrat to the House. This is a toss-up general election campaign.

In District 4, where veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was unopposed for renomination, businessman and rancher Cody Whipple was an easy Republican primary winner. Of the three Las Vegas congressional districts, this is the most Democratic seat.

In District 2, the state’s lone Republican congressional seat, it appears that Trump-endorsed retired Air Force officer David Flippo is headed for a close victory over State Conservation Secretary and Gov. Lombardo-endorsed candidate James Settelmeyer.

Former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson is the Democratic primary winner. The Reno-anchored 2nd CD should remain in the Republican column but expect Democrats to make a concerted effort here to make the general election competitive.

North Dakota

There was little in the way of political intrigue in North Dakota last night. As expected, freshman at-large Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) was easily renominated with 73 percent of the vote.

On the Democratic side, 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer, who lost in a landslide in the last election, was unopposed for renomination last night. It is likely we will see a repeat performance in the 2026 at-large congressional election.

South Carolina

In a Republican gubernatorial primary campaign that was expected to be close among five candidates, the first two finishers ended the race breaking away from the field.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who carried both President Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsements, placed first with 28.9 percent of the vote. Four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson was second with 26.1 percent support. Both now advance to a quick runoff election scheduled for June 23. The winner of that race will have the inside track to winning the general election in safely Republican South Carolina.

Approximately 10 percentage points behind the top two finishers was a closely bunched group; in order of finish, they were Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), businessman Rom Reddy, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). These three are now eliminated.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) was an easy winner, scoring approximately 58 percent of the vote against two opponents. Because he exceeded the majority threshold figure, Johnson advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, as expected, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), on the ballot seeking a fifth six-year term, captured 57 percent of the vote against five opponents and will advance directly into the general election where he will again be favored to win re-election.

For the Democrats, pediatrician Annie Andrews was an easy 62 percent winner over two opponents. She, too, advances directly into the general election.

Turning to Rep. Mace’s open 1st District, a runoff election between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Columbia) will be held on June 23. Honeycutt placed first with 22 percent against 10 opponents, four points ahead of Rep. Smith. The winner will become a heavy favorite in the general election.

Different Primaries, Different Ways of Tallying the Votes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Primaries

Four states are holding primary elections today – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina – and each has different ways of managing its votes.

Maine uses a Ranked Choice Voting system, which recent polling suggests could drastically alter the Democratic gubernatorial primary outcome once second- and third-choice preferences are tabulated. North Dakota relies on a strong party endorsement process that often makes the state primary, including today’s, largely a formality.

Nevada employs a straightforward plurality system in which the top vote getter advances regardless of the percentage received. South Carolina, by contrast, requires a runoff if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold.

Therefore, in today’s June 9 primary elections, we see nearly every major type of nominating system in use. The only other method, observed last week in California, is the top-two “jungle” primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party preference, appear on a single ballot and the two highest finishers advance to the general election irrespective of the vote percentage attained.

Lively debate often arises in political circles over which nominating system works best. For those who believe it is essential for a party’s nominee to demonstrate majority support, a secondary runoff election is the preferred approach. States such as Alabama and Georgia, which will hold runoffs next week, and South Carolina, which follows on June 23, use this method to ensure the eventual nominee surpasses the 50 percent threshold.

Other states simply rely on a basic plurality system: whoever receives the most votes wins. The drawback, however, is that in a crowded field a candidate can secure a nomination with less than 30 percent support. North Carolina uses a modified approach – its runoff provision is triggered only if no candidate reaches 30 percent. South Dakota and Iowa also hold a secondary process (SD: a runoff; IA: a state party convention) should no candidate receive 35 percent in the primary election.

In addition to North Dakota, several states – most notably Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Utah, with Virginia also having the option of holding a binding nominating convention – conduct important state party endorsement conventions. These gatherings often play a decisive role in shaping the field. Candidates who fail to secure the party’s backing frequently withdraw afterward, and in many cases are expected to step aside if they do not win the delegate vote.

The one procedure that can significantly alter the outcome from the initial vote count is the Ranked Choice Voting system used in Maine. According to a recent Democratic gubernatorial primary poll, it is possible for a candidate who finishes third in the actual vote count to ultimately secure the nomination once all ranked choice votes are distributed.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, the organization that advocates for Ranked Choice Voting, tested both the initial ballot preferences and the subsequent RCV rounds. SurveyUSA (May 28-June 3; 484 likely Democratic primary voters; 466 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) provided a credible model for how the ranked choice tabulation could unfold after the first round vote.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Ranked Choice Voting model closely mirrored the initial ballot test. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles placed first among respondents on the ballot test question. Businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H. W. and George W. Bush, placed second, followed by former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, with the remaining candidates trailing well behind.

After three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting, during which voters’ preferences are redistributed as lower finishing candidates are eliminated, the model shows Charles surpassing the 50 percent threshold. Under the RCV rules, reaching a majority in a tabulation secures the nomination.

The Democratic contest presents a very different dynamic, and it is here that critics highlight what they view as a flaw in Ranked Choice Voting. While supporters argue that the system ensures the candidate with the broadest overall backing ultimately prevails, detractors contend that, in practice, it can amplify the influence of the most ideologically extreme voters participating in the primary. They argue that the ranked preferences may elevate a candidate who was not among the top initial vote getters.

When a candidate is eliminated for lack of support, only the voters who ranked that individual first have their subsequent preferences redistributed into the tally. Critics argue that this dynamic can distort the outcome. Opponents of Ranked Choice Voting contend that giving these later round preferences additional weight can allow a small, highly motivated faction to alter the final result to the detriment of the initial top-tier finishers.

In the Maine Democratic example, former Maine Health Department Director Nirav Shah placed first in the initial ballot test, followed by former state Senate President Troy Jackson, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, businessman Angus King III, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.

With no candidate reaching 50 percent, the last-place finisher, in this poll, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, would be eliminated. Election officials would then identify the ballots on which she was ranked first and redistribute those voters’ next preferences to the remaining candidates. This process continues through successive RCV rounds until one contender attains an adjusted majority.

In the SurveyUSA poll, the Ranked Choice Voting simulation requires four rounds and ultimately elevates the third-place finisher, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), to the top position, with Dr. Nirav Shah finishing a close second in the adjusted tally.

This example illustrates how a candidate who does not lead in the initial vote count can nonetheless emerge as the nominee once lower ranking preferences are redistributed.
While this is only a poll and not an actual election, the outlined scenario is structurally possible under Maine’s RCV system. We will see how the real results unfold tonight, and in the days ahead, as election officials complete the multi round tabulation that the Ranked Choice Voting system requires.

Redistricting: Alabama, Yes — SC, No

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 14, 2026

Alabama

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Alabama Congressional Districts map.

The US Supreme Court acted quickly and decisively earlier this week to resolve the Alabama redistricting situation.

The high court vacated all lower-court federal injunctions related to Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, which had previously been ruled a racial gerrymander. The Court’s opinion in Callais v. Louisiana effectively invalidated the prior rulings, clearing the way for Alabama to proceed with enacting a new congressional redistricting plan.

Gov. Kay Ivey (R) summoned the legislature into a special redistricting session following the Callais decision, and lawmakers moved to reinstate the congressional map they passed in 2023. The plan is expected to give Republicans an additional seat and return the state to a 6R–1D delegation. The map shifts the 2nd District back into southeastern Alabama after a court order had previously required the creation of a second majority minority district anchored in the city of Montgomery.

Returning to the 2023 map resolves a major Republican redistricting challenge in southern Alabama. With Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) running for the Senate, former Rep. Jerry Carl (R) had been set for a Republican primary battle with state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) in the open 1st District, which stretched from Mobile to the Georgia border.

Under the newly enacted plan, however, Carl and Marques will run in separate Republican-leaning districts, each of which would make them nominal favorites in their respective congressional campaigns.

Now seeing a legal resolution, Gov. Ivey announced that the primaries for the affected districts, meaning CDs 1, 2, 6, and 7, are now scheduled for Aug. 11. The remaining districts, 3, 4, and 5, will continue their nomination process on May 19, the state’s original primary election date. Because the boundaries of those latter three districts remain unchanged, there is no need to postpone their primaries.

Although Alabama is a runoff election state, the districts holding delayed primaries will not be subject to a secondary runoff. Instead, the candidates receiving the highest number of votes in their respective primaries will secure their party nominations and advance to the general election.

There had been speculation that the legislature might attempt to draw a 7R – 0D congressional map, but the lawmakers ultimately bypassed the opportunity in order to quickly enact a new plan.

South Carolina

While Alabama moved forward with redistricting, the South Carolina legislature did not. Falling two votes short of the two-thirds majority needed to suspend the regular order rules to move a new bill, lawmakers will conclude the 2026 legislative session today without making any changes to the state’s congressional map.

The opportunity for change, however, may not be over. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) still has the power to call a special legislative session for the purpose of drawing a new congressional map. If convened quickly, a revised plan could still be implemented for the 2026 election cycle.

In a special session, only a simple majority vote would be required to bring the measure forward and secure final passage. Since the state House approved the proposed map with two-thirds support and the Senate fell only two votes short of that threshold, Republicans would likely have sufficient backing to enact a new 7R–0D congressional map.

Gov. Henry McMaster has previously said he would not call a special session, but he could still change course. It is clear that President Trump and congressional Republican leaders are likely to lobby him to move forward with a new federal redistricting map.

Now that Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Tennessee have all enacted new congressional maps in recent days, it remains to be seen if South Carolina will ultimately follow suit.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.