Tag Archives: South Carolina

Graham Wins South Carolina Runoff; GA-13 Seat Filled

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

South Carolina

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won last night’s South Carolina special Republican US Senate runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) with 52.5 percent of the vote.

Several notable dynamics emerged from the result. First, turnout – projected at roughly 370,000 votes – exceeded the Aug. 11 special primary by about 35,000 voters. It is unusual for a runoff to draw more participation than the associated primary, thus underscoring the atypical circumstances surrounding the 2026 South Carolina Senate race.

Second, the vote split sharply along geographic lines. The state’s northern neck backed Rep. Norman, while the remainder of South Carolina voted uniformly for Sen. Graham. She carried the major population centers of the Charleston metropolitan area where she averaged approximately 62 percent of the vote, and the Columbia metro region with an average percentage of 58.

The pivotal area, however, was Myrtle Beach and the northeastern 7th Congressional District. This is where President Trump held a rally for Sen. Graham on Saturday and the district that Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) represents. Fry finished third in the Senate primary but endorsed Graham in the runoff. In Horry County, the region’s population anchor, Sen. Graham received 73 percent of the vote and posted similar margins in the surrounding counties.

Third, however, is Rep. Norman’s strength, which was concentrated in the northwestern part of the state. He carried his home 5th Congressional District, anchored in Rock Hill, and the counties along the North Carolina border. He also proved victorious in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th CD. More strikingly, Rep. Norman carried the Graham family’s home county of Pickens with 58 percent and much of the 3rd District that Lindsey Graham represented during his US House tenure.

Sen. Darline Graham now advances to the general election, where she will be favored against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won her party’s nomination outright in the regular primary on June 2.

GA-13

The runoff election to fill the late Congressman David Scott’s (D) seat for the remainder of this legislative session was also held last night in Georgia.

With turnout likely to finish below 19,000 voters, former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair defeated the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott, by a 54-46 percent margin. Scott had placed first in the initial special election in late July with 46 percent against four Democratic opponents but was forced into a secondary election because she did not obtain majority support.

Blair takes office immediately but will serve only until the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The regular cycle Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), who won the May primary outright with 56 percent against five opponents, including Blair. She is expected to win the November general election easily in a district with a 68.9D–29.5R partisan lean, according to Dave’s Redistricting App.

Blair carried only one of the district’s counties, but his 70 percent showing in his home county of Gwinnett was enough to secure the districtwide victory. Georgia’s 13th District includes portions of four Atlanta metropolitan counties east of the city.

Oklahoma

Last night’s Republican gubernatorial runoff proved to be a nail‑biter, and while a recount may still be ordered, initial results indicate that former state Budget Director and ex‑state Sen. Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond with 50.3 percent of the vote.

The lone public poll of the race – from Oklahoma‑based CHS & Associates – accurately projected a dead‑heat finish. Mazzei, who earned President Trump’s endorsement, dominated eastern Oklahoma, while AG Drummond won the state’s largest population center, Oklahoma City, with just under 52 percent. Drummond also performed well in the rural western counties.

The two essentially broke even in Tulsa County, the state’s second‑largest population hub, where the Attorney General held a lead of only 268 votes.

Mazzei, who also received the endorsement of term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson (D-Lawton), the state House Minority Leader who won her party’s June primary.

In the Democratic US Senate runoff, nurse and Democratic Socialist N’Kiyla Thomas easily defeated retired attorney and minister Jim Priest. She now faces Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), where she enters the general election as a clear underdog. The winner will succeed appointed Sena. Alan Armstrong (R), who replaced Markwayne Mullin after President Trump appointed him Homeland Security Secretary.

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

Graham to Runoff; Flanagan Wins; Rep. Larson Loses in Connecticut

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th US House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.

For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.

In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an Aug. 25 Republican runoff election. Graham recorded only 33 percent of the vote, meaning 67 percent of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.

Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25 percent. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20 percent but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.

Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40 percent margin. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.

In other races …

Alabama

Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Carl scored a commanding 75 percent victory in the Republican primary.

In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.

In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.

Connecticut

In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68 percent of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the fall campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).

Minnesota

In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90 percent victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).

In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.

Vermont

Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.

Wisconsin

In addition to Crowley winning the right to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.

In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49 percent contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.

In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40 percent of the vote. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).

In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.

Primary Preview:
Minnesota, South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Voters in six states cast their final ballots today, and the two premier contests, the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns, are reviewed in this update. Yesterday, we covered the three congressional races in Alabama along with the regular primaries taking place in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Minnesota

With Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) a lock to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination tonight – and then the general election in November – the political focus shifts to the open US Senate race. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, leaving the Democratic nomination to be decided between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D Prior Lake).

Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate and has consolidated substantial individual and institutional support. Her endorsements include Sens. Smith, Bernie Sanders (I VT), and Elizabeth Warren (D MA), along with Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D MN). Former Sen. Al Franken has also publicly backed her.

The Lieutenant Governor secured the official Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party endorsement at the state convention, where she was so dominant among delegates that Rep. Craig did not participate.

In Minnesota politics, an official party endorsement often leads remaining opponents to exit the race. Such is not the case here. Rep. Craig, who holds a fundraising advantage, always intended to force a primary regardless of the convention outcome. Her most prominent Minnesota endorsement comes from Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, while her broader support base includes key labor unions and elected officials from other states.

Polling in the Democratic primary has been inconsistent. Seven surveys released since late May show a split picture: three with Flanagan leading, three with Craig ahead, and one tied. The race enters today’s vote as a genuine toss up, and a close result is expected.

On the Republican side, former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya holds a solid polling advantage and is expected to win comfortably tonight despite not receiving the official GOP endorsement. Tafoya, who grew up in Minnesota and built her broadcasting career in the state before moving to ESPN and NBC Sports, benefits from strong name recognition while developing a centrist public image.

National coverage of the potential general election has been limited, but Minnesota could emerge as a sleeper contest for Republicans. Early general election polling, though none has been released since late May, shows the prospective nominees within single digits. Should Tafoya remain competitive, national Republican groups will likely invest heavily late in the campaign.

In the congressional races, the Democratic primary for Rep. Craig’s open 2nd District is expected to be close. Two Democratic state Senators, one state Representative, a teacher, and a biochemist are competing for the nomination, with the winner holding an early edge heading into the fall. Republicans have unified behind state Sen. Eric Pratt (R Prior Lake), who is unopposed tonight.

Rep. Omar faces four Democratic challengers, but none have mounted a major campaign. She is expected to easily secure renomination.

South Carolina

Today is also the day that Palmetto State Republicans will begin the formal process of replacing the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot.

Three major candidates are competing for what will prove to be two runoff slots. They are: appointed Sen. Darline Graham, the late Senator’s sister, and Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Also on the ballot are former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch, who attracted 29 percent of the vote against Sen. Graham in the 2026 Republican primary.

Polling is close, and all plausible scenarios point to Graham, Norman, and Fry advancing in various combinations. The runoff will be held quickly, a two week campaign concluding on Aug. 25. The winner will replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot and face the Democratic nominee, physician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

The fact that Darline Graham is not approaching the 50 percent threshold suggests she may struggle in a head-to-head runoff against either Congressman. Tonight’s vote will provide a clearer picture of how the race is likely to unfold.

South Carolina Senate Special
Election Candidate Filing Closes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 30, 2026

Senate

Candidate filing closed yesterday for the South Carolina special Republican Senate primary, and no fewer than eight individuals filed to challenge appointed Sen. Darline Graham despite her carrying President Trump’s endorsement.

The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham earlier this month required state Republican leaders to schedule a quick special election to replace him on the ballot. The primary will be held Tuesday, Aug. 11. If no candidate receives a majority, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff.

The headline challengers are two sitting US House members: Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who finished a distant third in June’s gubernatorial primary, and Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach).

Other notable entrants include former Myrtle Beach Mayor and ex‑City Councilman Mark McBride – an unwelcome development for Rep. Fry, since McBride is likely to siphon votes from the northeastern South Carolina region – and wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, who drew 29 percent in his June primary challenge to Lindsey Graham. Former Governor and Congressman Mark Sanford, who considered entering the 1st District regular primary but ultimately did not, also filed for the Senate special.

Three apparent also-ran candidates also filed: former Waterboro City Councilman Duke Buckner, businesswoman Glenda Gail Parker, and biochemical engineer Sam Shepherd.

This crowded field makes it unlikely that any candidate, including Sen. Graham, will reach the 50 percent threshold. The most probable runoff scenario involves two of the three leading contenders – Sen. Graham, Rep. Norman, and Rep. Fry. Should Graham fail to win outright, she would enter the runoff at a disadvantage, since a majority of voters would have already chosen someone else.

Historically, family members of deceased officeholders often perform well in replacement elections, though Democratic family members typically perform better than Republicans.

In terms of campaign resources, Rep. Norman is independently wealthy and capable of quickly self‑funding at a seven‑figure level. Rep. Fry has roughly $1 million in his House campaign account that can be transferred to a Senate committee. Sen. Graham must raise funds into a new federal committee, but a supportive Super PAC has indicated it is prepared to spend $1.5 million on her behalf. Lynch, who spent more than $5 million on his unsuccessful June challenge, is also well‑financed and capable of again investing heavily, this time in a short‑term race.

Turnout will be key, as is typical in special elections. In June, 464,709 voters participated in the regular Senate primary, and it is likely that considerably fewer will cast ballots in the Aug. 11 special primary.

Lindsey Graham received 264,091 votes in securing his 57 percent primary win, giving the late Senator’s sister a substantial Graham‑aligned vote base from which to begin assembling a victory coalition. In the regular Senate primary, Mark Lynch drew 134,360 votes, and in the Republican gubernatorial primary, Rep. Ralph Norman received 80,790 votes.

With at least these three candidates capable of attracting significant support, the Aug. 11 primary is poised to be highly competitive, increasing the likelihood that the nomination will not be decided until the Aug. 25 runoff.

The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in November against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, given South Carolina’s strong Republican voting history. It remains to be seen which of the major contenders will ultimately secure the nomination.

Polling: Appointed Sen. Darlene
Graham No Cinch to Last Full Term

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 23, 2026.

US Senate

There has been some question as to whether the announced South Carolina special election Senate Republican candidates would reconsider their plans now that appointed Sen. Darline Graham has decided to run for the full six-year term. Two new polls may have just provided early answers.

With the July 28 candidate filing deadline approaching, two new surveys suggest that Reps. Ralph Norman (R Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach), along with businessman Mark Lynch, have little incentive to withdraw. Contrary to early assumptions, Sen. Darline Graham apparently does not begin the race with a clear advantage.

The new polling, conducted by Peak Insights (July 18–20; 900 likely Republican special primary voters; live interview & text) and Innovative Communication Strategies (July 20-21; 788 likely Republican special primary voters; text to web), indicates that another individual – one not currently running – holds the early lead.

Peak Insights finds former Congressman and Fox News host Trey Gowdy holding a 38 percent preference figure, well ahead of Rep. Norman at 13 percent, and Rep. Fry and Sen. Graham (listed on the survey questionnaire as Darline Graham Nardone) tied with nine percent. Lynch follows with seven percent support. ICS did not test Gowdy; without him in the field, their results show Rep. Norman holding a 19-16-12-9 percent edge over Sen. Graham (also listed as Darline Graham Nardone on the survey questionnaire), Rep. Fry, and Lynch.

Gowdy’s strength is notable given that he has made no visible move toward entering the race. Sen. Tim Scott (R), now the state’s senior Senator, has publicly argued – prior to Sen. Graham’s announcement – that Gowdy would be the strongest possible Republican nominee. The Peak Insights data suggests that the Senator’s assessment is correct.

Another central question in what now appears to be a competitive contest is campaign finance. Sen. Graham begins with no funds, as she must form a new federal campaign committee. Only $2,000 from Lindsey Graham’s account could be transferred to her campaign, assuming the committee treasurer has authority to make disbursements following the principal’s death.

Rep. Fry is in the strongest financial position: his June 30 FEC report shows $1.04 million available for transfer to a Senate committee. Rep. Norman reports $90,314 cash on hand but he has substantial personal wealth and could quickly self fund. Lynch, who challenged Sen. Lindsey Graham in this year’s regular primary, retains more than $568,000 cash on hand after loaning his campaign over $5 million.

Among the major contenders, Sen. Graham is therefore at the greatest financial disadvantage, and the compressed timeline makes lightning-fast fundraising difficult. A supportive Super PAC could intervene on her behalf, and given her endorsement from President Trump, such an effort is plausible. If her campaign can assemble an operational structure – likely with significant assistance from Lindsey Graham’s former political staff – she will be able to communicate the Trump endorsement, which has been a decisive asset in almost all Republican primaries.

The key question is whether a newly formed Graham campaign, even with Trump’s backing, can win outright on Aug. 11. If these polls are reasonably accurate – and both point to similar conclusions about Sen. Graham’s early standing – it appears unlikely that any candidate will reach a majority.

Based upon current information, the Aug. 11 primary is likely to force a runoff on Aug. 25 between the top two finishers. In a head-to-head contest between Sen. Graham and either Rep. Norman or Rep. Fry, the available data suggests that the result is uncertain.

A Bit More Senate Clarity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

The South Carolina Republicans and Maine Democrats have made decisions about plans for replacing their respective US Senate nominees, bringing greater logistical clarity to both states’ 2026 US Senate political landscapes.

South Carolina

Darline Graham Nordone

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death has thrown the South Carolina Republican Party into turmoil, and party leaders have now opted to hold an irregular, expedited primary to select a new US Senate nominee. Candidate filing will close on July 28 for a statewide Aug. 11 primary, followed by an Aug. 25 runoff if no contender wins a majority. The eventual Republican nominee will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary on June 9.

The party is working with the Department of War to satisfy the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires adequate notice and ballot access for covered voters. Meeting these requirements under such a compressed timeline remains a major challenge.

In the interim, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has appointed the late Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill the vacancy. She will serve until Jan. 3, 2027, unless she chooses to enter the special primary. Nordone has not announced her intentions, but she is not expected to run.

Most early interest in the Republican nomination is coming from the US House delegation, which creates additional logistical complications for both the state party and House GOP leadership. Reps. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston), both of whom ran for Governor – Norman finishing a close third and Mace placing a distant fifth – are unencumbered because they are not seeking House re-election.

Other members expressing varying degrees of interest include Reps. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), William Timmons (R‑Greenville), and Russell Fry (R‑Murrells Inlet/Myrtle Beach), with Fry appearing the most serious about entering the race.

Each of these three, however, faces a significant hurdle: they are already the official Republican nominees in their respective House districts. Because a candidate cannot seek two federal offices in the same election, entering the Senate primary would require withdrawing their congressional nominations.

While the Republican primary is a stand-alone vote, the regular general election, where Sen. Graham’s successor will ultimately be chosen, would feature both the US Senate and congressional contests.

Thus, should one or all of the aforementioned three House members enter the Senate special – win or lose – they would have to resign as the congressional district party nominee. This would lead to the district Republican Party apparatus also having to choose new nominees in the affected districts.

More developments are expected in the coming days as the party works to stabilize its nomination process and navigate the legal and logistical challenges because of Sen. Graham’s passing.

Maine

The Maine Democratic Party has scheduled a snap convention in Bangor on July 25 to select a replacement for withdrawn US Senate nominee Graham Platner. After delivering a video address late last week, Platner formally submitted his withdrawal papers to the Maine Secretary of State.

The convention will consist of 601 voting delegates: the 101 members of the Democratic State Committee and 500 county‑based delegates apportioned according to the raw vote totals Kamala Harris received in 2024. Because Harris performed strongest in southern Maine, the delegate pool will be heavily weighted toward that region, even though the in‑person convention is being held in Bangor. The northern location may simply reflect the challenge of securing a large venue on short notice.

In order to receive convention delegate votes, each individual must obtain 500 petition signatures from registered Democratic voters, with at least 50 coming from eight different counties. All signatures must be collected and returned to the proper election authorities by July 21.

This is a more difficult task than the seemingly small numbers indicate because the time frame is so short. Therefore, it is unclear exactly how many prospective candidates will qualify for the convention.

Under the party’s announced rules, once the candidate field is finalized, the five contenders receiving the most votes on the first ballot will advance to subsequent rounds. Voting will continue until one candidate secures a majority of the 601 delegates, assuming full attendance.

Several individuals have already begun positioning themselves for the nomination. Three losing gubernatorial candidates – former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, who finished first in the initial vote but lost under Ranked Choice Voting; former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who placed third; and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth – are taking steps toward entering the race. Former congressional aide Jordan Wood, who placed a close third in the initial 2nd District primary vote, and fourth‑place finisher Paige Loud have also expressed interest.

Sen. Lindsay Graham Passes; What to Look for Next in South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 13, 2026

Senate

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R‑SC) sudden and tragic death over the weekend has dramatically altered South Carolina’s 2026 federal political landscape and created several urgent procedural questions.

On June 9, Sen. Graham won renomination, making him the official Republican nominee for the November general election. Democrats nominated pediatrician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

Two separate processes now come into play.

First, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) will appoint a replacement to serve out the balance of Sen. Graham’s term, which ends when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The Governor may choose either a caretaker or someone who could later compete in the general election. Because this Senate seat is already on the ballot in 2026, a special election is unlikely, though one specific scenario could still trigger a subsequent vote.

Secondly, the South Carolina Republican Party leaders must determine how to replace Sen. Graham as the GOP nominee. Reports indicate party leaders, in consultation with Gov. McMaster, are preparing to hold a snap primary, with a candidate filing deadline potentially as early as July 21 and a primary on Aug. 11 or 18. A runoff, if needed, could occur as early as Aug. 25.

A major obstacle is compliance with the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires 45 days’ notice for elections involving covered voters. The proposed timeline does not meet this requirement. As a result, the South Carolina Republicans reportedly plan to request a waiver from the Department of War to permit an expedited nomination election.

Even if granted, such a waiver would almost certainly prompt legal challenges. Democrats would likely sue in federal court to overturn the decision. If Republicans lost, their remaining option would be to petition the US Supreme Court. All of this would consume valuable time and complicate the calendar.

If the legal strategy fails, Republicans could face the possibility of Sen. Graham’s name remaining on the November ballot. In that scenario, the party would need to spend resources educating voters to cast ballots for the late Senator, triggering a 2027 special election once he is posthumously elected.

Given the compressed timeline, clarity on the GOP’s approach could come as early as today.

Names are already surfacing about who may seek the Senate seat if there is an election, assuming that Gov. McMaster appoints a caretaker who won’t become a candidate. Reports suggest that the Governor may be in the process of asking Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nardone, if she would have interest in serving as the interim appointee.

Individuals potentially coming to the forefront include Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who lost the primary for Governor and is therefore not a re-election candidate, and 7th District Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrells Inlet). A tweet surfaced that indicated Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), whose son, Attorney General Alan Wilson, is the Republican gubernatorial nominee would also be interested in competing for the Senate position.

All three already have active federal campaign committees and could quickly pivot to a Senate race. Prior to the primary, Fry reported over $950,000 cash on hand, Wilson just over $200,000, and Norman under $100,000. All federal funds could be transferred to a Senate campaign.

Reps. Fry and Wilson could be at the center of another controversy. They are already the Republican nominees in their individual congressional districts, meaning if they enter the Senate race, and one became the Senate nominee, he could be on the ballot for two federal offices in the same general election on Nov. 3. This may mean resigning from the House and thus causing another congressional vacancy.

The South Carolina Election Commission would need to determine whether a candidate may simultaneously seek two federal offices, whether one nomination must be relinquished, or whether dual candidacy is prohibited.

South Carolina will draw intense political attention in the coming week, similar to what Democrats faced in Maine following the Graham Platner withdrawal. With Sen. Graham’s passing, the number of open US Senate seats for the 2026 general election increases to 14 (10 Republicans and 4 Democrats).

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.