Tag Archives: Illinois

Two US Reps Announce for Illinois Senate Race; More Likely to Come

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 9, 2025

Senate

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg)

Two members of the Illinois US House delegation have officially announced their intention to compete in the state’s open Senate race, and a third may soon join the fray.

Last week, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) announced that he will retire after what will be 44 years of congressional service counting his time in both the House and Senate. Left in his wake will be a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary to be decided in plurality fashion. The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026.

Considering the Illinois electorate’s voting history since the turn of the century, winning the statewide Democratic primary is typically tantamount to also clinching the general election.

Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) announced their Senate campaigns this week, and Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) is soon expected to follow. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), who both Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D) support, is also an announced candidate.

Public Policy Polling released the first poll of the newly open Democratic Senate primary. The survey April 9-30; 674 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Krishnamoorthi leading the pack of contenders with 20 percent compared to Rep. Underwood’s 16 percent; Lt. Gov. Stratton posted 13 percent, and Rep. Kelly trailed with 8 percent support.

In terms of name recognition, however, Rep. Underwood leads the group. According to the PPP data, she records a 55 percent statewide name recognition score, which is surprising for a House member who represents just under 6% of the state’s population. Rep. Krishnamoorthi posts 50 percent name ID. Only 42 percent of the polling universe recognized the lone statewide official, Lt. Gov. Stratton. Rep. Kelly is least well known, recording a name identification score of only 31 percent.

According to Jim Williams, the Public Policy Polling representative that conducted the study, Stratton jumps ahead of the others “after voters learn more about each candidate.” This is largely in reference to the pollsters informing the respondents that Stratton has received public endorsements from Gov. Pritzker and Sen. Duckworth.

After the respondents hear the push questions, the ballot test changes to 26-17-17-9 percent with Stratton leading Rep. Krishnamoorthi, Rep. Underwood, and Rep. Kelly, respectively.

The early money count, however, greatly favors Rep. Krishnamoorthi. According to the 1st quarter Federal Election Commission filings, the northern Illinois Congressman posts just under $19.5 million in his campaign account. Reps. Kelly and Underwood have $2.0 million and $1.1 million, respectively. For the federal officials, all of their cash-on-hand money is transferable to a US Senate campaign account.

Since Lt. Gov. Stratton just formally announced her candidacy, she obviously did not file a 1st quarter disclosure report. The Democratic Lieutenant Governors’ Association, however, has endorsed her candidacy and a spokesman said the organization was committed to spending “seven figures” to help elect Stratton. She is also counting on a major Super PAC contribution from Gov. Pritzker. The latter may or may not happen since the Governor will likely be on the ballot himself, striving for a third term in an expensive state in which to campaign.

Adding the retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston), the 17-member Illinois congressional delegation will already feature at least three open seats, and four if Rep. Underwood makes the expected move into the Senate race.

The 2026 Illinois Senate race will receive a great deal of attention in the early portion of the election cycle since the early Democratic primary in March will almost assuredly determine who will win the general election. We can count on seeing much more about this race as the open campaign continues to develop.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Senate

Already we’ve seen a great deal of jockeying for political position in 2026 Senate races. Today and tomorrow, we will review the 18 Senate races where significant action is occurring.

This edition looks at the situations in Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, Michigan through Virginia. If a state is not mentioned, it means the incumbent is seeking re-election and, at this early point in the election cycle, has no serious competition.

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will reportedly soon announce that he will eschew a second term in the Senate to enter the open Alabama Governor’s race. Once Tuberville makes his plans official, others will finalize their own plans. Expect a crowded open Republican Senate primary with the winner having the inside track to carrying the seat in the general election.

Florida — Sen. Ashley Moody (R), the former Florida Attorney General who was appointed to replace Sen. Marco Rubio when he resigned to become US Secretary of State, must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026. So far, several people have announced their candidacies, but all should be considered minor candidates in both parties. The biggest name in the field is former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), but his attempts to return to public office after spending three non-consecutive terms in the House have not gone well.

Unless the quality of candidates improves, Sen. Moody should have little trouble retaining her seat. It is probable, however, that credible competition will emerge. At this time, appointed Sen. Moody must be considered a clear favorite to win next year.

Georgia — The Peach State is one of several places where a term-limited or recently retired Governor could run for the Senate. Most of the Governors in this category, however, have their eyes on the Presidency in 2028. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is a state chief executive with rumored presidential aspirations but leads the Senate Democratic incumbent in early polling.

However, yesterday’s announcement that Gov. Kemp will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture, and we will devote a column to that evolving campaign after our Senate Review, Part II is published. With Kemp now not running for Senate, at least four US House members are expressing interest. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Without Kemp in the race, Sen. Ossoff establishes a polling lead against all other potential Republican nominees.

Idaho — Just turning 82 years of age, rumors swirled that three-term Sen. Jim Risch (R) would retire. Recently, however, Risch announced that he will seek a fourth term and appears to be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general election.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring, and the meaningful action will occur in the March 2026 Democratic primary. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), armed with public support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), is an announced candidate. She could, however, face as many as three members of the Illinois congressional delegation in the Democratic primary: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville).

The Illinois primary is scheduled early in the election cycle on March 17, so this race will begin immediately. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a lock to win the general election.

Iowa — The big early winner from Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) decision not to seek a third term could well be Sen. Joni Ernst (R). An open, competitive race for Governor is now likely to capture the attention of those who originally considered challenging the Senator.

Iowa’s only elected Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, appears headed into the Governor’s race and is no longer contemplating challenging Sen. Ernst. Former state legislator Jim Carlin is an announced Republican candidate against Ernst, along with two minor candidates. Nathan Sage, a local Chamber of Commerce executive and former sports announcer is a declared Senate candidate on the Democratic side.

With the Hawkeye State Democrats having a short political bench, expect the credible potential Ernst challengers to head for the Governor’s race.

Kentucky — This is another state where a Governor with presidential aspirations could be a major contender for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not running for an eighth term, but two-term Governor Andy Beshear would give the Democrats a major candidate and is clearly the best choice of any party member to convert the seat. Republican former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are the announced GOP candidates.

If Gov. Beshear runs for the Senate, this becomes a top national Senate battle. If he does not, the eventual Republican nominee will punch his ticket to the Senate.

Louisiana — The Bayou State is one place where a Republican Senator has a bigger challenge winning renomination than re-election. Louisiana has returned to a partisan primary structure, eschewing their jungle nominating system for federal campaigns and some other offices. Therefore, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted in favor of impeaching President Trump as he was leaving office at the end of 2020, will certainly face competition from his political right.

State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), announced his candidacy months ago and will be a major contender. Others, potentially Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) or former Congressman Garret Graves, could also join the Senate campaign. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) stated earlier that he will remain in the House.

Regardless of the eventual mix of Republican candidates, Sen. Cassidy faces a real prospect of being forced into a runoff, which could lead to a renomination defeat. Democrats are attempting to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate, but so far their overtures have not been successful.

Maine — In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the Democrats’ chief national targets, and their candidate, then state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), and allied Super PACs spent records sums of money in a small state.

Polling suggested the Senator would lose, but in the end Collins repelled the massive charge and won by almost nine percentage points.

Sen. Collins announced early in the ’26 cycle that she would run for a sixth term, thus extinguishing retirement rumors. The veteran incumbent will no doubt be a Democratic conversion target again next year, but the fervor to defeat her appears to be less in this cycle.

Democrats hope to recruit term-limited 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills into the Senate race, but so far she has not accepted the challenge. The party will field a credible candidate irrespective of Gov. Mills’ ultimate decision but, in the election cycle’s early phase, Sen. Collins must be rated as at the very least a slight favorite to win re-election and once again overcome Maine’s reliably Democratic voting patterns.

Sen. Dick Durbin to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 24, 2025

Senate

Our House Overview series has been postponed a day to cover Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-IL) retirement announcement. We’ll pick it up again with Part III tomorrow and Part IV on Monday.

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

In what had been expected for some weeks, and particularly since the 1st Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports revealed that Sen. Durbin had campaign receipts totaling only $42,000 since the beginning of the year, the veteran Illinois lawmaker released a statement yesterday indicating that he will not seek re-election to a sixth Senate term next year.

When the 119th Congress concludes, Durbin will have completed 44 years of combined elected office service including his time in the Senate and House. He will be 82 years old at the time of the next election and would be 88 if he were to run and serve an entire new term.

Sen. Durbin’s decision means there will be at least five seats open in the next election. Previously, Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), had all announced their retirement intentions.

The Illinois Senate race, due to the state’s strongly Democratic voting history in recent decades, will largely be decided in an open Democratic primary scheduled for next March 17.

Those believed to be interested in running for the seat are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), a trio of US Representatives, Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville), and potentially state Comptroller Susana Mendoza and Secretary of State and former US Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Several weeks ago, Attorney General Kwame Raoul (D) made a public statement saying he would not run for the Senate even if Sen. Durbin decided to retire.

Stratton was elected on a ticket with Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D), so she has not run statewide in her own right. Of all the potential candidates, Rep. Krishnamoorthi has proven himself a fundraising machine. He raised $2.86 million in the 1st quarter of 2025 and has a whopping $19.4 million in his campaign account. In contrast, Rep. Kelly has $2 million while Underwood reports $1.1 million in her campaign treasury.

No major Republican has announced for the Senate seat, and it is unlikely one will considering that the eventual party nominee will be the longest of shots to win the general election. Therefore, a GOP congressional delegation member, either Reps. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro), Mary Miller (R-Oakland), or Darin LaHood (R-Peoria), will not risk a safe House seat for a statewide bid where the eventual Republican nominee would fail to attract any more than 45 percent of the vote.

Durbin was first elected to the Senate in 1996 and became the Democratic Whip shortly after the 2004 election. He recorded a career statewide mean average election percentage of 58.2 percent, with a high of 67.8 percent in 2008, the year Illinois Sen. Barack Obama was elected President, and a low of 53.5 percent during the Republican landslide election of 2014.

Durbin also served seven terms in the House from, at the time, one of the state’s southern Illinois districts that was anchored in his home city of Springfield and Carbondale. To put in perspective the Illinois loss of representation over the succeeding census periods, when Durbin was first elected to the House in 1982, his state had 22 US House districts. Today, it maintains just 17 seats.

The 2024 election cycle will now feature the first open Illinois Senate election in 20 years, and a very crowded and competitive Democratic primary is expected with all candidates vying to succeed Sen. Durbin. Considering the state’s early primary schedule, expect the political jockeying to begin in earnest very shortly.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.