Category Archives: FLORIDA

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.

Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Redistricting

As the election cycle progresses and a new round of candidate filing deadlines are fast approaching, redistricting action is coming quickly.

Yesterday, the Virginia Supreme Court heard arguments on the Democratic Party’s motion to lift the lower court’s stay that had invalidated the new map. The original ruling, issued before the statewide referendum election, stemmed from the judge’s finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing the measure onto the ballot.

After the circuit judge’s ruling, the Democrats appealed to the state Supreme Court. The justices have not yet heard the appeal but allowed the referendum to proceed. On April 21, voters approved the new congressional map by a narrower than expected 51.7 to 48.3 percent margin. With the candidate‑filing deadline approaching on May 26, the Democratic Party moved to ensure that the 2026 elections can proceed under the newly adopted map.

In a rather surprising ruling, the state Supreme Court yesterday denied the motion. As a result, the 2021 congressional map remains in effect until the justices hear the Democratic Party’s appeal of the lower court ruling and issue a final decision.

More details are emerging about the newly proposed Florida congressional map, which is expected to come before the state House of Representatives this week. If approved, the plan would then advance to the state Senate.

The new plan is being characterized as one that would deliver 24 of Florida’s 28 congressional districts to Republicans.

Researchers at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics have conducted a preliminary review of the proposed districts and suggest that several of the new seats may be more competitive than Republicans are indicating.

The Center’s report specifically identifies new Districts 14 (Rep. Kathy Castor-D; Tampa), 22 (likely a new open seat), and 25 (also likely an open seat) as competitive contests that could present opportunities for Democratic holds.

While the weakest of these districts is the new 25th, which would have given President Trump a 54-45 percent victory in 2024, the Center compares the totals to the 2020 election when President Trump faced Joe Biden. In that scenario, the Center’s analysis shows new District 14 narrowing to a two‑point Trump advantage, while Biden would have carried District 22 by 2.9 points and District 25 by a wider 5.1‑point margin.

While competitive races in these districts are certainly possible, particularly in the 14th, which features a long‑serving incumbent (Rep. Castor was first elected in 2006), the two presidential elections are not equally comparable in terms of political significance.

Florida has undergone drastic political change since 2020, largely to the benefit of Republicans. In 2020, Democrats held a 36.5 to 35.8 percent advantage in party registration, amounting to just under 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Today, Republicans hold a 41.3 to 35.8 percent advantage, giving the party a registration lead of roughly 1.5 million voters. Measured as a percentage shift over the past five years, this represents a net Republican gain of nearly 12 points.

In 2020, President Trump carried Florida with just a 51.2 – 47.9 percent victory margin. In 2024, his margin increased to 56.1 to 43.0 percent. When these statewide shifts are considered alongside the substantial changes in voter registration and the per‑district analysis, the 2024 projections are likely a more accurate reflection of the current electorate than the numbers derived from the 2020 results.

Expect additional redistricting developments soon, particularly the US Supreme Court’s decision in Callais v. Louisiana, which many observers anticipate will be a significant ruling on racial gerrymandering.

Texas Redistricting Ruling; Fla. Gov. DeSantis Releases Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Texas Redistricting

In a move that could signal how it may approach the Louisiana racial gerrymandering dispute, the US Supreme Court yesterday took a very unusual step regarding the Texas redistricting appeal.

A majority of the justices voted to issue a reverse summary judgment in the challenge to Texas’s new congressional map. The move effectively overturned the lower court’s ruling without requiring additional briefing or oral argument.

Yesterday’s court action is exceedingly rare, and its use adds weight to predictions that the forthcoming Louisiana decision could become a defining ruling on racial gerrymandering. The Court is scheduled to release additional opinions tomorrow, and it remains unclear whether Callais v. Louisiana will finally be among the cases issued this week.

For more detailed information, visit the Florida Senate redistricting map.

Florida Redistricting

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) yesterday released a new congressional map that he is urging the legislature to approve during the special session scheduled to begin today.

The Governor issued a statement saying that redistricting is necessary because “Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since. Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million [person] Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited.”

Widely viewed as a response to the 10D–1R Virginia map approved by voters last week, the Governor unveiled a Florida proposal that would likely shift the delegation from a 20-8 Republican advantage to a 24-4 advantage.

The current Florida map features 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats. It appears that at least three current Democratic House members — Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) — would likely face significantly more difficult paths for re-election and enter the general election as underdogs.

In a new 23rd District lying in the Ft. Lauderdale area, it is probable that Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) would be paired in a Democratic primary, with the winner favored to hold the seat in the general election.

The sitting Democrats who would have a district on the new map are: Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) and the open 20th District.

In the latter seat, former Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar), who resigned from the House while facing federal indictments in addition to violating 25 House ethics provisions, would see an open Democratic seat in her area. Although she has stepped down from Congress, Cherfilus‑ McCormick has not closed her campaign account and indicated that she intends to run for the new seat.

The new 20th District is one she would likely have been able to hold were it not for her legal troubles. Six other Democrats had already entered the race, and the new configuration suggests that all of them will remain in the contest. Although she is running again, Cherfilus‑McCormick’s prospects for returning to Congress appear slim at best.

The South Florida portion of the map appears to create two new open Republican seats: one coastal district (FL‑25) between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and another to the west (FL‑22) that stretches across the peninsula to the Gulf Coast.

Political data for the proposed districts has not yet been released or analyzed, so decisions about where certain members ultimately run could shift as more information becomes available. For example, because many of the South Florida districts are expected to lean only slightly Republican, Reps. Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz may have multiple potential districts to consider if they choose to remain in Congress, though none would offer a particularly favorable political landscape.

There are still many unanswered questions surrounding the proposed Florida map, but the DeSantis plan is currently the most fully developed option on the Republican side. It remains to be seen if the Governor can capture majority support in each legislative chamber. If he does, the plan would significantly strengthen Republican prospects for retaining their narrow US House majority in the 2026 election.

Court Tosses Virginia Redistricting; Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan to Retire

Virginia Congressional Districts map / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 29, 2025

Virginia

A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place, and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

The Old Dominion redistricting outcome may have been devastating to Republicans if the proposed map outline, which has not been unveiled publicly, ultimately delivered a 10D-1R partisan split as reported. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R. Unless something changes on the legal front in relation to appealing this decision, the 2026 election will be conducted on the present 2021 map.

The Virginia candidate filing deadline is April 2 for the June 16 primary election. Therefore, the 2026 political clock at least regarding redistricting is now on the Republicans’ side.

Yet, even under the current map, several seats will be hotly contested in the midterm election cycle. Eleven Democrats have announced their challenge to veteran 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose). Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) is mounting a comeback attempt against the woman who unseated her in 2022, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), in District 2.

Moving to the central part of the state, freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) faces a primary challenge from former Congressman Bob Good in a rematch from the 2024 primary, and general election competition from ex-Congressman Tom Perriello (D), assuming he tops seven other Democrats also vying for the party nomination.

Moving into Northern Virginia, state Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) is poised to run a competitive campaign against freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) in the politically marginal 7th District.

Regardless of the electoral map, Old Dominion voters can expect a very active 2026 congressional political cycle.

FL-16

Ten-term Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to death of an incumbent or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office, either Governor or US Senate. Of the 55 open seats, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Buchanan’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in Bradenton and Manatee County, is safely Republican. The district also houses 25 percent of Hillsborough County. The other population centers are the cities of Bloomingdale, Sun City Center, and Palmetto.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republicans hold the partisan lean advantage at 55.2R – 42.7D. President Trump carried the 16th with a 57.3 – 41.8 percent vote spread in 2024.

It is likely, however, that all of these numbers will change if the legislature follows through and passes redistricting legislation later in the year. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) says he will call the legislature into special session in April for the purpose of redrawing the congressional boundaries.

Rep. Buchanan is the third member of the Florida delegation to not seek re-election. The other two are Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) who is retiring, and Byron Donalds (R-Naples) a gubernatorial candidate.

Expect the new 16th District to be slightly less Republican, as will the surrounding seats on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Doing so will allow more Republican voters to be drawn into Democratic seats, and particularly the district of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) who is clearly in the most vulnerable political position of any central/southern Florida Democratic member.

Redistricting Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 8, 2024

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

Several states have been conducting a second round of redistricting, and four have completed the process. Therefore, the group has new maps in place for the 2024 election cycle. Below is a redistricting recap:

Completed States

Alabama: The US Supreme Court rather surprisingly sided with the Democratic plaintiffs to force a redraw of the Alabama congressional map under the reasoning that a second majority minority seat could be drawn. The new map results in a pairing of Republican Congressmen Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in a southern Alabama district that stretches from Mississippi to Georgia along the Gulf Coast and Florida border.

The Republican primary election, scheduled for March 5, will decide who represents this district likely for the remainder of the decade. Rep. Carl represents 59 percent of the new district while Rep. Moore overlaps with 41 percent of the new AL-1 territory. Since Carl and Moore are the only Republican candidates, no runoff election will be necessary.

As a result of the reconfiguration, a new Montgomery/Mobile-anchored 2nd District was designed to elect an African American. A total of 13 Democrats and eight Republicans are running for the new seat. Expect runoff elections to occur for both parties. The runoff election date is April 2. Democrats are expected to gain a net of one seat under the new court ordered map.

Georgia: The new Georgia congressional plan was completed and received court approval during the Christmas break. The court previously ruled that the plan should be drawn to create another majority minority district. The legislature and governor complied with the ruling in that they converted a racial coalition district into a majority minority seat. Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) is moving from her current 7th District that lies east of Atlanta back to a more western suburban seat that is closer to the district from which she was originally elected. She should have little trouble winning the new 6th District.

Conversely, current 6th District Congressman Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee) will run in the new 7th CD that is Republican favorable. Therefore, expect no change in the 9R-5D Georgia delegation party division.

New Mexico: Republicans challenged the 3D-0R congressional map as an “excessive gerrymander,” but lost at the district court level. The New Mexico state Supreme Court then rejected the Republican appeal. Therefore, the current map will stand for the 2024 election, and likely throughout the decade.

The state’s 2nd District, while designed to elect a Democrat, is competitive and we can expect to see another tight election contest between freshman Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). The 2022 race between the two ended with Vasquez unseating then-Rep. Herrell by less than one percentage point.

North Carolina: Republicans scored a big victory here, as the new map will yield the GOP a net three-seat gain. With Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) not seeking re-election, the Democrats are conceding the new 6th District without even fielding a candidate. Six Republicans are vying for the party nomination including former US Rep. Mark Walker and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner.

Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) foregoing re-election in the new 13th District to run for the Senate in 2026 means the Republicans are a sure bet to convert this seat, too. A total of 14 Republicans have qualified for the ballot in this district.

The new 14th CD is another seat primed to go Republican. Democratic incumbent Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is running for Attorney General, meaning state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) is becoming the prohibitive favorite to win this district.

The most competitive general election appears to be forming in the state’s 1st District where Democratic freshman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill/Rocky Mount) faces more Republican terrain in his new district. Former congressional nominee Sandy Smith and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout are vying for the party nomination. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a new 50.9D – 47.7R partisan lean, meaning the seat now only leans Democratic. Under the previous map, the 1st District partisan lean was factored as 54.1D – 44.4R.

States in Progress

Florida: The Florida congressional map was declared illegal at the district level, but the state Appellate Court overturned the ruling. Therefore, it is likely the current map will stand at least for the 2024 election cycle.

Louisiana: Like Alabama, Louisiana was under court order to redraw their map for purposes of creating another majority minority congressional seat. The court has given the legislature and its new governor, Republican Jeff Landry, until the end of this month to submit a new plan. It is likely that the two most affected Republicans will be Reps. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) and Julia Letlow (R-Start). It is probable that Democrats will gain one seat in the Baton Rouge area once the final plan is completed and adopted.

New York: The New York congressional map has been returned to the New York State Independent Redistricting Commission for a redraw. The new map will require approval from the state legislature. This is the “wild card” plan for the 2024 election cycle. Most believe Democrats will make big gains, and the current map favors the party, yet their candidates could not deliver what was expected in 2022. Should some of the districts be made more Democratic, other marginal seats in the adjacent areas could become more Republican.

The areas most likely to be affected are Long Island, Brooklyn/Manhattan, the Hudson Valley, and the upstate area in and around Syracuse. Expect Democratic gains once the process is complete, but it is difficult to project just how many.

South Carolina: The US Supreme Court has heard oral arguments on a lawsuit challenging the 1st District (Rep. Nancy Mace-R) as a racial gerrymander. The high court ruling is pending. A decision for the plaintiffs could mean the loss of one Republican seat. Rejecting their claim would mean the current 6R-1D delegation map will likely stand throughout the remainder of the decade.

Wisconsin: During the Christmas break, the state Supreme Court ordered a redraw of the state Senate and Assembly boundaries but did not rule on the congressional map. Most expect the court to order a federal reconfiguration as well, but time is growing short. The Secretary of State has informed the court that new maps will have to be in place before March 15 in order to conduct 2024 elections. A new congressional map would likely mean a net gain of at least one seat for the Democrats.

Redistricting Update – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023

House

A look at how things might play out in key states in the redistricting tug of wars

Six States: Both Parties Affected — Court rulings in two congressional redistricting states will likely be handed down within the next few days, and another’s legislature will soon begin to redraw their current boundaries.

The Alabama special master is mandated to report to the three-judge panel that ordered the redraw during next month’s first week. The New Mexico state Supreme Court directed the assigned lower court in Roswell to report its decision during the first few days of October. The North Carolina legislature is going into special session during the first week of October to redraw their maps.

Today, we look at the situation in the first six states that may see another round of congressional redistricting, those from Alabama through New York. Tomorrow, we will look at the remaining five domains from North Carolina through Wisconsin.

• Alabama: The US Supreme Court’s decision to uphold the federal three-judge panel’s ruling that disqualified the legislature’s map means that the court-appointed special master will deliver a final map to the court on or around Oct. 3. The released three public options are similar.

All would pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) in one southern Alabama district that would stretch the width of the state from Mississippi to Florida. A new majority minority 2nd District would then be created and anchored in Montgomery County. The end result will be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Florida: The lower court ruling declaring the Florida congressional map unconstitutional means the state will likely be forced to redraw the map at some future point. The state and the plaintiffs agreed the redraw would only affect the north Florida sector and concentrate on whether the former 5th CD, that previously stretched from Tallahassee to Jacksonville, will be reconstructed in some manner. The state is appealing the ruling, so we can count on seeing significant time elapse before this issue is decided.

The members’ districts most affected would be Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), and Aaron Bean (R-Fernandina Beach). The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, 2024, so enough time remains for the map to be redrawn before the next election. Other regional members could also be tangentially affected. The concluding outcome would likely be a net gain of one seat for the Democrats.

• Georgia: A lawsuit challenging the state’s 6th District (Rep. Richard McCormick; R-Suwanee), claims that the Atlanta metro area has been gerrymandered to deny African Americans another seat. This case will require very significant time to maneuver through the entire legal process. Therefore, it is probable that any final judicial decision will not come before the 2024 election.

• Louisiana: The Louisiana situation is similar to that of Alabama’s. SCOTUS’ Alabama decision could force a redraw here, too, but no action has yet been taken. The state elections, including the governor’s office, are scheduled for Oct. 14, with a runoff on Nov. 18 for the undecided races. Candidates securing majority support are elected outright in the first election. Therefore, no redistricting action will occur until well after the state elections are concluded, and likely after the first of next year.

Considering Louisiana’s unique election system that holds its first regular vote concurrent with the general election, plenty of time remains for a court to force a legislative redraw of the congressional lines, or eventually appoint a special master to make the changes. The most apparent vulnerable reconfiguration member is Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). Should a redraw occur before the 2024 election, the Democrats would likely gain one seat in this delegation.

• New Mexico: Republicans have filed suit here, claiming the map is a partisan gerrymander. The New Mexico state Supreme Court has directed the lower court in Roswell to render a decision this week — the first week of October. The ruling’s losing party will undoubtedly appeal to the state Supreme Court. If they decide a redraw is in order, expect it to happen before the 2024 election.

The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024, with a yet to be determined candidate filing deadline, though it will be sometime in February. A redraw would give the Republicans a better chance of regaining the state’s southern congressional seat.

• New York: Currently, the New York map is an interim court draw that the legislature, with input from an appointed commission, can replace. It is expected the Democratic legislature will make a move to draw a more favorable map. Last time, the legislature attempted to draw a 22D-4R map, but even the Democratic controlled courts ruled that such was a partisan gerrymander. Therefore, when they make boundary changes, the map drawers will likely be more cognizant of going too far since Republicans are sure to repeal.

Still, Democrats could make significant gains under a new map. Even under the current plan, a two-seat gain appears to be a minimum. It would not be surprising to see the Democrats convert three or four seats here in the coming 2024 election.

McCormick Concedes in PA; Michigan Gov. Whitmer Holds Huge Lead

Dr. Mehmet Oz (left) and former hedge fund CEO David McCormick

By Jim Ellis — June 6, 2022

Senate

Pennsylvania: McCormick Concedes to Dr. Oz — The long post-primary Pennsylvania Republican Senate drama finally came to a close Friday when former hedge fund CEO David McCormick conceded to television Dr. Mehmet Oz. The general election between Dr. Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) is now underway, but the Democratic nominee also has issues.

With the recount of the May 17 election progressing, including the ballots arriving after election day being added to the count, the results were not turning around to the degree that McCormick had publicly predicted. Therefore, instead of forcing what could have been a long drawn out post-election period of individual ballot challenges and lawsuits attempting to overturn Dr. Oz’s approximate 900 vote lead, McCormick decided the best course of action was to concede and allow the party to move forward.

As we know, Democratic nominee Fetterman suffered a stroke right before the primary as a result of a blood clot in his heart. Fetterman is now making statements that he was near death during the ordeal, and must refrain from active campaigning for an undetermined time. The situation creates a unique general election with both parties having internal challenges while having to conduct tough campaigns before a swing electorate.

Redistricting

Florida: State Supreme Court Says No — The Florida state Supreme Court, responding to a petition asking the high panel to review the new congressional map, said they do not have jurisdiction at this point in the process. The high court indicated that the District Court of Appeals is the body that must hear the case. With the June 17 candidate filing deadline coming nearer, further delays likely point to the enacted map being in place for the 2022 elections. The Florida primary is Aug. 23.

Governor

Michigan: Republicans Reeling After Ballot Disqualification — A new Target Insyght poll (May 26-27; 600 registered Michigan voters) finds Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) holding huge leads against the remaining GOP candidates after former Detroit Police Chief James Craig and businessman Perry Johnson were disqualified from the race because they failed to produce enough valid required petition signatures. Against all of the largely unknown Republican candidates, Gov. Whitmer scores either 57 or 58 percent opposite 24 percent for the top current GOP contender, businessman Kevin Rinke. With the candidate filing deadline long since passed, the Republicans now find themselves buried in a major political hole from which it will be difficult to recover.

Ohio: DeWine Leading, but Under 50 percent — Two days ago, Suffolk University released the results of their Ohio US Senate survey, which we covered, and yesterday their gubernatorial numbers were made public. The Suffolk study (May 22-24; 500 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) finds Gov. Mike DeWine (R) leading Dayton Mayor Nan Whatley (D), 45-30 percent, with Independent Neil Petersen attracting 11 percent support. Gov. DeWine won re-nomination in May, but did so with only a plurality within his own party. While his general election lead is comfortable, being well under 50 percent continues to show a significant degree of political weakness.

Oregon: New Shock Poll — Republican pollster Nelson Research (May 25-27; 516 likely Oregon general election voters; live interview) finds new Oregon GOP gubernatorial nominee Christine Drazan, the former state House Minority Leader, taking a small but surprising 30-28 percent lead over former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D). Additionally, Republicans are only one point behind (39-40 percent) on the generic ballot question.

These results are particularly surprising when seeing the Democrats outperform the Republicans in the recent May 17 primary turnout. Examining the polling methodology, the sampling universe skews high for both major parties. The survey respondents divide 40.1 percent Democratic, 33.5 percent Republican, and 26.4 percent non-affiliated. Actual Oregon partisan registration for May of 2022 is listed as Democratic 34.3 percent; Republican 24.6 percent; and Unaffiliated 34.3 percent. Therefore, the sample skew could largely account for the unexpected ballot test result.

Pennsylvania Ballot Count Goes On; Ballot Issues in Oregon; Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis
May 24, 2022

Senate

Pennsylvania ballot

Pennsylvania: Related Court Ruling Could Add Votes — A three-judge federal panel sitting in the capital city of Harrisburg issued a ruling Friday on a Lehigh Valley case that relates to the current vote counting situation. The judicial action mandated the counting of mail ballots where no date appears on the carrier envelope. PA ballot procedure requires the voter to date the envelope before mailing. Immediately upon the ruling being announced, the Dave McCormick for Senate campaign sent a letter to all 67 county chief election officials reiterating the decision. The Dr. Mehmet Oz-Dave McCormick race is down to a lead of 1,070 votes for the doctor, suggesting that any new ballots added to the mix could theoretically help McCormick. It is unclear when we will see a final count publicized.

House

OR-5: Counting Stalled — Oregon’s 5th District ballot counting has ground to a halt because of a major malfunction in one of the district’s anchor areas, Clackamas County. Due to a reported bar code error on the printed ballots, election officials are having to record the votes of every ballot individually, punching a new ballot for each with the correct bar code. Hence, only 57 percent of the expected vote has been reported.

Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Canby) is trailing badly, 60-40 percent in the Democratic primary, to former local city manager Jamie McLeod-Skinner. The congressman’s base is Clackamas County, but it appears, according to votes currently recorded there, that he won’t likely have enough support there to fully overcome his opponent’s large early advantage. If Schrader does lose, he will be the third House incumbent who fails to secure re-nomination, joining Reps. David McKinley (R-WV) and Madison Cawthorn (R-NC).

PA-12: State Rep Nearing Victory — One of the other Pennsylvania races that was too close to originally call was the open 12th District Democratic primary. Though she has not yet been officially projected the winner, state Rep. Summer Lee (D-Braddock) has increased her small lead to 737 votes of more than 94,000 ballots cast. Her main opponent is lobbyist Steve Irwin, and Lee’s lead may now be too wide for him to overcome. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election and will replace retiring Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pittsburgh) from the downtown Pittsburgh-anchored district.

Redistricting

Florida: Congressional Districts Still Unclear — Legal wrangling among judges imposing and then lifting and then re-imposing stay rulings regarding the Florida’s congressional map may be decided this week at the appellate court level. It is increasing possible, however, that the state Supreme Court will become the final arbiter should the Republicans’ motion to fast-track the maps to the high court be granted. Many argue that fast tracking the maps is the only way to give candidates adequate time to campaign in districts with definable boundaries prior to the Aug. 23 primary election. Most of the objections pertain to eliminating the majority black 5th District of Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) that extends from Tallahassee to Jacksonville.

New York: Congressional Districts Enacted — Steuben County Supreme Court Judge Patrick McAllister approved the special master’s congressional maps with some changes, particularly in the Brooklyn area. The special master’s footprint helps Republicans to an extent, cutting their current delegation size from eight to five, which is one better than the Democratic map provided.

The new map does create at least five additional Democratic districts that will be competitive, and pairs Democrats Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan) and Jerry Nadler (D-Manhattan) into a new 12th District. Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-Westchester County) will move from his current 17th CD into a new west-side Manhattan 10th District where he will face former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio and many others in a hotly contested primary. New York’s congressional and state Senate primaries are delayed until Aug. 23. The statewide contests and all other races will be decided in the previously scheduled June 28 primary.

Alaska’s Palin in Trouble?
Florida Redistricting Map Tossed

By Jim Ellis
May 13, 2022

House

Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate, now running for US House Representative

AK-AL: Palin Begins Special with Slight Lead, but May Not Prevail — The Alaska Survey Research firm, headed by longtime local pollster Ivan Moore, released their new special election US House study featuring 48 candidates. The survey (May 6-9; 605 AK-AL likely special election voters; online) finds former governor and 2008 vice presidential Republican nominee Sarah Palin leading the huge field with 19 percent, followed closely by officially endorsed Republican Party candidate Nick Begich III at 16 percent, with Independent and former 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee Al Gross and North Pole City Councilman Santa Claus (the former Thomas O’Connor) capturing the third and fourth qualifying positions with 13 and six percent, respectively.

Under the new Alaska election law, the top four finishers from the jungle primary, in this case scheduled for June 11, will advance to the Aug. 16 special general election. If no one receives majority support among the finishing four in the succeeding vote, the Ranked Choice Voting System takes effect. It is here where Palin may find trouble. Under this configuration, ASR projects that Claus would be first eliminated, then Palin in the next round. A Begich-Gross final round would favor Begich at 53-47 percent.

Nick Begich III is the grandson of former US Rep. Nick Begich (D), who died in a plane crash before the 1972 election. His uncle is former US Sen. Mark Begich (D). Nick Begich, III, however, is a Republican. ASR tested four different iterations with four separate fourth-place contenders, and in each scenario Begich ultimately wins the seat.

NE-2: Dem Group Poll Shows Rep. Bacon Trailing — Democratic pollster Change Research, polling for the left of center 314 Action group (May 6-10; 564 NE-2 general election voters of whom 94 percent say are definite or probable voters; online) finds Omaha Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas leading US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), 42-39 percent, in a survey conducted just before the Nebraska primary.

The poll skews slightly left, meaning that the race is likely no worse then being tied from Rep. Bacon’s perspective. Approximately 25,000 more people voted in the NE-2 Republican primary than Democratic suggesting the enthusiasm level favors the GOP. The seat became three points more Republican in redistricting. Despite this particular poll result, Rep. Bacon is still favored for re-election.

Redistricting

Florida: Congressional Map Tossed — A Florida state judge, whom Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed, disqualified the new Florida congressional map, ruling that the elimination of Rep. Al Lawson’s (D-Tallahassee) majority minority District 5 violates Florida’s Fair Districts Act. The state will clearly appeal, but the map’s fate, the Republicans’ best in the country, now is suspended in political limbo.

Governor

Alabama: Gov. Ivey Below 50 Percent — A Cygnal group poll for the Alabama Daily News and Gray Television (May 6-7; 600 likely Alabama Republican primary voters) two days ago covered the Alabama Senate race confirming that Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Huntsville) is gaining on his two GOP opponents. Wednesday, Cygnal released its data on the state’s gubernatorial campaign. While Gov. Kay Ivey (R) still holds a comfortable lead according to the poll, the survey shows that she has dropped to 40 percent support.

Real Estate developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, is second with 18 percent, and former US ambassador to Slovenia, Lindy Blanchard, is a close third with 15 percent. Three more candidates divide 14 percent of the vote, while the remainder is recorded as undecided/won’t say. There is little doubt that Gov. Ivey will finish first, but the question remains whether she can attain the 50 percent threshold to avoid being forced into a secondary runoff election. The Alabama primary is May 24. If a runoff becomes necessary, that election would occur on June 21.