Category Archives: Primary

Kentucky Race Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 10, 2026

Senate

For months, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) enjoyed a commanding lead in campaign resources over his principal opponent, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, but not a polling advantage. The situation has now changed.

While Rep. Barr undoubtedly still has more money in his campaign account than does Cameron, he now is forging ahead in polling, too. According to the latest Emerson College survey, conducted for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (March 29-31; 400 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Rep. Barr now leads Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15 percent margin.

While Rep. Barr had placed first in two previous surveys after routinely trailing, both spreads were well within the polling margin of error meaning he was virtually tied with Cameron. The new Emerson College survey is the first publicly released poll to find Rep. Barr inconclusively leading the open Blue Grass State US Senate Republican primary.

According to the Federal Election Commission year-end 2025 filing, Rep. Barr had raised over $6.5 million as compared to Cameron’s $1.6 million. A total of $1.44 million of Barr’s funding came as a transfer from his US House campaign committee. As filing closed at the end of December, Barr reported almost $6.5 million cash-on-hand, while Cameron declared only $630,016 remaining in his campaign account, meaning a 10:1 Barr advantage.

Though no candidate has yet to announce how much their campaigns have raised in the 1st Quarter 2026 (the filing deadline is April 15), it is presumed that the Barr financial lead will have grown larger even though he has been spending a portion of his financial advantage to become better known to Republican primary voters beyond his 6th Congressional District constituency.

The wild card in the race is Morris. A wealthy business owner, Morris has been advertising for months. He is running against the Republican establishment, and repeatedly trashes retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Others, even in Republican primaries, have similarly attacked McConnell, but none were running in Kentucky.

The Morris angle of going after McConnell and tying his opponents to the former Senate Majority Leader is a questionable one when campaigning before a Republican electorate that has routinely strongly supported the seven-term incumbent since he first ran for the Senate in 1984.

Morris has already put $5 million of his own money into his statewide campaign, and Elon Musk is reportedly donating $10 million to a Super PAC supporting Morris’ effort. Therefore, he is a serious third candidate but one who still lags considerably behind the two front runners.

While we are still weeks away from the May 19 primary election, the seeds are set for a Barr victory in the plurality Republican primary, meaning beginning the general election cycle with a clear advantage.

Emerson also tested the Democratic side as part of their March 29-31 statewide poll, surveying 549 likely Democratic primary voters. Here we see former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker topping former US Senate and ex-congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, by a 2:1 clip, translating into a 36-18 percent advantage.

McGrath, a proven strong fundraiser, opposed both Sen. McConnell and Rep. Barr in previous elections and fared poorly despite being at parity with her stronger Republican opponents in campaign resources. Regardless of who comes through the Democratic primary, the general election will prove a major obstacle for the individual irrespective of funding, the political climate’s status at the time of the general election, and trends that might be developing in other states.

At this point, it appears Rep. Barr is now in the best position to win the open GOP Senate nomination and carry that momentum through toward winning the general election.

Kentucky Senate: A GOP Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 20, 2026

Senate

A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Cameron and Barr.

The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29 percent over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13 percent support figure.

Two polls from last month found Rep. Barr, who has a huge resource advantage over Cameron, claiming the first position.

A Feb. 4 online Quantus Insights study of 870 likely Republican primary voters saw a virtual tie at the top – Barr leading 28-27 percent – with Morris pulling 17 percent. The Emerson College Kentucky Senate poll (Jan. 31-Feb. 2; 523 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) likewise found a similar result, 24-21-14 percent, with Barr leading Cameron and Morris in said order.

Therefore, at this point, two months before the May 19 primary election, we see an evolving close finish with Barr having a slight edge.

One place where the Congressman has a clear advantage relates to fundraising and campaign resources. New reports will be made public in a month, but the year-end 2025 totals found Mr. Barr holding at that time $6.5 million in his campaign account versus just $630,000+ for Mr. Cameron.

Mr. Morris has also raised or self-funded more than $6 million, but he had spent three-quarters of his resources before the end of 2025. He reported $1.4 million in the bank at that time, so he too is considerably behind Rep. Barr in terms of reserved campaign dollars. Morris could loan further money to the race, but the question remains as to how far he will tap his personal assets to compete in this Senate campaign.

Since only 25 percent of the Morris campaign assets come from others, it is likely that he will have to further rely upon himself to promote his campaign effort. He will be receiving major support from the substantial unconnected Super PAC that Musk supports, but obviously the Morris campaign cannot control or influence the entity’s messaging strategy.

The Democrats are clearly in the underdog position in this race, and have been since Gov. Andy Beshear, who could have put the open Senate race in play, opted to prepare a run for President.

Four of the seven filed Democratic candidates are competitive for the nomination. Former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, is a strong fundraiser, but she fared poorly in a 2018 congressional campaign against Rep. Barr and in a challenge opposite Sen. McConnell two years later.

State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D-Louisville), former state Representative and 2020 and 2022 US Senate candidate Charles Booker, and thoroughbred horse trainer Dale Romans also have a chance to claim the party nomination.

Post-primary, the eventual Republican nominee will be rated as the favorite to win the general election and succeed Sen. McConnell, the former Majority Leader, who will leave the body next year after serving what will have been 42 years in office.

Stratton, Bean Win; Jackson, Jr. Loses

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Illinois Primary

The important Illinois primary produced the 2026 election cycle’s first full slate of partisan nominees last night. The Land of Lincoln hosted the nation’s fifth regular primary election, but the first allowing plurality finishes.

In the four previous March primaries, from Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, only candidates who secured majority support were nominated. In the campaigns where all finishers were under the majority threshold, the top two vote getters advanced into runoff elections.

Senate

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, with strong support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s political machine, defeated two sitting members of the House, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) in last night’s Illinois open Senate Democratic primary.

Throughout the great preponderance of the primary campaign cycle, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had developed what appeared to be dominating polling and fundraising leads. In the Past two weeks, however, momentum clearly shifted to Stratton and this closing effort propelled her to a 39.7 – 33.3 percent victory over Krishnamoorthi.

Rep. Kelly, who was never a serious factor, pulled 18.4 percent of the vote. She did better in Cook County, garnering 23 percent, and won her home county of Kankakee, but otherwise, Kelly failed to make her mark throughout the rest of the state.

Stratton carried Cook County, which was expected, with just over 40 percent of the vote. The surprise was her strength downstate, basically running at parity with Krishnamoorthi outside of Cook County.

This race’s final publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), proved spot on. Its survey result from a week ago found Stratton leading Rep. Krishnamoorthi 38-33 percent.

On the Republican side, former state party chairman Don Tracy won his party’s nomination with 40 percent of the vote. He will be a decided underdog to Stratton in November. The winner will replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Governor

Incumbent J.B. Pritzker was unopposed in the Democratic primary as he seeks a third consecutive term as the state’s chief executive.

On the Republican side, former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey won renomination setting up a re-match in November. Four years ago, Gov. Pritzker defeated Bailey by a 55-42 percent count. We can expect a similar result later this year.

House

All of the significant House primary action was on the Democratic side because the party is risking five seats through incumbent retirements and with Reps. Kelly and Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate. While the four hotly contested open seat primaries had large candidate fields, three of the four came down to two principal contenders.

The fifth open seat, that of retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), featured only one candidate, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman). We expect to see several prominent Democrats qualify as Independents to force a competitive general election, however.

In the Chicago-anchored 2nd District where former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. was attempting a comeback, Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller instead defeated the former 10-term incumbent, 40-29 percent. Jackson, son of the late civil rights leader, Jesse Jackson, was forced to leave office in 2012 after being convicted of bribery and misusing government and campaign funds. Miller is now a lock to win the general election.

The second comeback attempt, from former Congresswoman Melissa Bean, was successful. She defeated businessman Junaid Ahmed 32-27 percent. Bean was originally elected in 2004 but defeated in 2010. She now returns to succeed Rep. Krishnamoorthi in the state’s Chicago suburban 8th District. This version of the 8th, unlike the seat to which Bean was originally elected, is safely Democratic.

Turning to the 7th CD, the seat that retiring veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis represents, state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago) defeated Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin 24-20 percent. He will now advance into Congress with what is predicted to be an easy general election win. This is a good example of why some states employ a runoff, because the final winning percentage in this situation is likely to be under 25 percent.

Ninth District Rep. Jan Schkowsky (D-Evanston) is retiring after serving what will be 36 years in the House at the end of this Congress. Her successor will be Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who won the Democratic primary with a close 29-26-20 percent win over free Palestine activist Kat Abughazaleh and state Sen. Laura Fine (D-Glenview). All other House incumbents from both parties who faced primary opposition won easily.

Next, we will see the special congressional election runoff in Georgia on April 7, followed by New Jersey’s 11th District special general election on April 16. The next regular primaries are not until May 5 in Indiana and Ohio. The month of May will feature 11 regular primaries and the Texas runoff election.

Illinois Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Primary

Voters in the Land of Lincoln will cast their election day ballots in today’s fifth state primary vote. Unlike the others we have witnessed so far in Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, the Illinois primary is plurality based. Therefore, we will see nominees chosen tonight in all races.

Leading the ticket is the important open US Senate race, and the new incumbent will be effectively crowned tonight in the Democratic primary. Republicans have little chance of putting this Senate seat in play for the general election, so retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D) replacement will come from tonight’s Democratic vote.

The race is largely between Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), who has led in polling and fundraising for almost a year, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has been the beneficiary of a Super PAC funded in most part by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his family along with large expenditures from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. The outside spending has brought her campaign into relative parity with Krishnamoorthi’s.

There is no doubt that Lt. Gov. Stratton has captured the closing momentum, but the question remains as to whether her late surge is enough to overtake the western Chicago suburban Congressman. A third top-tier candidate, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), failed to gain traction and is no longer competitive for the nomination.

The closing publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), projects Stratton to a 38-33 percent lead over Rep. Krishnamoorthi. Suggested internal campaign polls, however, still favor the Congressman, but the closing indicators suggest a close finish. Turnout from Chicago as compared to the downstate participation rate will likely be the determining factor. A high Chicago turnout will help Stratton; if the downstate participation is stronger, Krishnamoorthi will win the nomination.

The Governor’s race is also on the ballot. Gov. Pritzker is unopposed for renomination to a third term. Four Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination including 2022 nominee Darren Bailey, a former state Senator. He lost to Pritzker 55-42 percent four years ago. The Governor will again be favored in 2026.

All 17 Illinois US House seats are on the ballot today. Seven delegation members are running unopposed in their respective primaries: Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago); Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago); Bill Foster (D-Naperville); Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro); Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville); Darin LaHood (R-Peoria); and Eric Sorensen (D-Moline).

Two former House members are making comeback attempts, and both have strong chances to prove victorious tonight.

Ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) was elected 10 times but resigned in 2012 when convicted of bribery and misuse of campaign and government funds. In this primary election, he faces nine Democratic opponents for his former 2nd District position. Among the contenders are two state Senators and a Cook County Commissioner. Tonight’s winner will cruise to election in November.

Former Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first elected in 2004 but defeated for re-election in 2010. Now that the 8th District is again open due to Rep. Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate, Bean returns to elective politics. She faces seven Democrats tonight including Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison and local official Yasmeen Bankole.

Fourth District Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) is retiring and was able to conceal his intentions until the filing period was ending when his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman), filed in his place. While she is unopposed for the party nomination because Rep. Garcia was expected to seek re-election, four Democrats are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independents to challenge her in the general election.

To gain ballot access without a political party nomination, an individual must recruit more than 10,500 petition signatures from the district’s registered voters. Included in this group are Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Lyons Mayor Chris Getty. The signatures must be submitted by May 26.

Incumbents Mike Quigley (D-Chicago), Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), Brad Schneider (D-Highland Park), Nikki Budzinski (D-Springfield), and Mary Miller (R-Oakland) all face intra-party competition, but each is expected to easily win renomination.

The state congressional delegation also features two more safe Democratic open seats. In District 7, veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis (D) is retiring, and 14 Democrats are competing to be his successor. The group includes a state Representative, the Chicago City Treasurer, a local Mayor, a labor union official, and a physician within the crowded field. This plurality primary will likely be decided with the winner receiving only a small number of votes.

A similar situation will occur in retiring Rep. Jan Schkowsky’s (D-Evanston) open 9th District. Here, 15 Democrats are on the ballot, and it appears one of the following will likely be victorious tonight: Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, state Sens. Laura Fine (D-Glenview) and Mike Simmons (D-Chicago), state Rep. Hoan Huynh (D-Chicago), or political researcher Kat Abughazaleh who has a national following.

We are assured of seeing some very interesting results later this evening.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part II

2026 Texas Congressional Districts Map. Click here or on the above map to see an interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Special Election

Yesterday, we previewed the Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas Senate primaries. Today, we look at 20 of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts that will see political action in today’s primary. Texas is a 50 percent runoff state, so expect many of the succeeding campaigns to advance into a May 26 secondary election featuring the respective top two finishers.

In Texas’ 2nd District, Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has primary opposition from state Rep. Steve Toft (R-The Woodlands). While Toft has good grass roots support from the conservative wing of the party, and even an endorsement from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Rep. Crenshaw has a major advantage in financial resources.

Though the Crenshaw victory margin will likely be lower than in the past, he is still favored to survive this challenge and win re-nomination.

The 8th District is open because Congressman Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring after two terms. This is one of the seats that will possibly elect outright a new Republican nominee who will eventually win the general election. The former America First Principles Institute attorney, Jessica Steinmann, is in the political driver’s seat. She has all the key endorsements and very little opposition, a surprisingly easy run for a safe Republican open seat.

The 9th CD is a Texas redistricting map new creation. This is an eastern Harris County seat that will go Republican in the general election. We will likely see a runoff here between Trump endorsed Alexandra Mealer and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (R-Deer Park).

Tenth District Congressman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) is retiring from the House after serving what will be 22 years when Congress adjourns in this session. In his place will be another Republican, but we will likely see two of the 10 Republican candidates advancing into a runoff election from tonight’s plurality vote total.

Republican attorney, Chris Gober who runs Elon Musk‘s Super PAC, is likely to be one of those participants. Possibly, businessman Ben Bius could be the other. This will be another race to watch closely in the May 26 Republican runoff.

In the South Texas 15th District, Democrats are hosting a primary with two candidates vying for the opportunity of challenging Congresswoman Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) in the general election. Regional award-winning singer Bobby Pulido is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination tonight over emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. The general election, even though the district favors the two-term Congresswoman, will be competitive in November.

Back in Houston, the 18th District features an endangered incumbent who may lose renomination tonight. Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) is placed in the same district with the recently elected Christian Menefee, who won a special election on Jan. 31. The two are now vying for the regular term in the newly created 18th District in the 2025 Texas redistricting map.

Though Green represents much more of the current district than does Menefee (65 percent of the new district’s constituency compared to 26 percent), polling suggests that the younger man has the inside track tonight.

Lubbock GOP Congressman Jodey Arrington is retiring after this session of Congress, choosing not to seek a sixth term. His decision leaves another multi-candidate Republican primary battle that will likely end in a secondary runoff election.

Here in the 19th CD, agribusinessman Tom Sell has accumulated strong endorsements from the agriculture community along with raising the most money. He is likely to secure the first runoff position. Vying for second place appears to be Bienvenido organization head Abraham Enriquez, who has Gov. Greg Abbott’s endorsement, and Lubbock County Commissioner Jason Corley.

With Congressman Chip Roy leaving the House to run for Attorney General, his 21st San Antonio/Hill Country district is another of the 10 open Texas seats. Retired baseball player Mark Teixeira, who has President Trump‘s endorsement, faces a series of Republican opponents, including former Federal Election Commission chairman Trey Trainor.

It is clear that Teixeira has the advantage over his 11 opponents, but whether he can win outright or will advance to a runoff is the question that will be answered tonight.

The open 22nd District is unique. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Richmond) is retiring, and his likely replacement is his identical twin brother, Trevor Nehls. The latter Nehls is a former Fort Bend County Constable. He is likely to win the Republican primary tonight without a runoff and is the odds-on favorite to replace his brother in the US House come November.

The 23rd District will be one of the seats that attracts the most attention tonight. Embattled incumbent Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) has been accused of having an extramarital affair with a staff member who later committed suicide through self-immolation, obviously a terrible and tragic story.

Gonzales was forced into a runoff in the 2024 election and survived by only a 354-vote margin. Firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera, who held him to that small victory two years ago, is back for another run and certainly the controversy that engulfs Gonzales could well change the outcome of this particular election. Also in the race is former one-term Congressman Quico Canseco who has not been particularly active. Going to a runoff here is likely, which could spell the end of Gonzales’ congressional career.

The 28th District, which touches the Mexican border, appears headed to hosting another hotly contested general election. Veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) faces only minor opposition for the Democratic nomination but will see a top-level opponent in the general election. Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina is expected to clinch the Republican nomination tonight, thus kicking off what promises to be a hot general election.

Many in the Republican Party expected Cuellar to switch parties after President Trump pardoned him from federal bribery charges, but such proved wishful partisan thinking. Look for this race to be in tossup mode all the way to November in a district that President Trump carried, 57-42 percent.

Returning to Harris County, Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) sees sizable new territory in her Democratic 29th CD, and former state Representative and ex- Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson is opposing her for renomination.

Polling shows the Congresswoman ahead, but a minor third candidate creates the possibility that the first-place finisher, likely Rep. Garcia, is forced into a runoff. If so, all bets would be off for a May 26 secondary election. Irrespective of their nominee, the Democrats will hold the seat in November.

In Dallas County, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) is leaving her 30th District to run for the US Senate. This is another of the open seats that could be decided tonight. Mega church Senior Pastor Frederick Haynes is favored over opponents Barbara Mallory Carraway, a former state Representative and ex-Dallas City Councilmember, and fellow pastor Rodney LaBruce.

Winning the Democratic nomination in this 30th District is tantamount to clinching the general election from this urban district.

Turning to Central Texas, veteran 31st District Congressman John Carter (R-Round Rock) is facing a large number of Republican opponents (nine), but none seem able to coalesce a majority against the veteran lawmaker. Carter is expected to win outright tonight even though defeating so many opponents with a majority vote is always a formidable task.

Back in Dallas, the 32nd district is a newly created Republican seat in the 2025 redistricting map. The seat stretches from East Dallas almost to the Lake of the Pines in East Texas. This is a Republican primary battle, and we will likely see a runoff among two of three contenders: former minor presidential candidate Ryan Binkley, businessman Paul Bondar who ran for Congress in Oklahoma two years ago, and attorney Jace Yarborough, who has a strong list of endorsements including one from President Trump.

In the new 33rd District, which is self-contained in west Dallas County, freshman Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is choosing to seek re-election in this seat since incumbent Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) decided to retire.

In a surprise as candidate filing closed, former Congressman Colin Allred (D), who was expected to join the US Senate field, instead decided to run again for the House in the newly configured 33rd CD. This is another case where we may see an incumbent member defeated because Allred previously represented a part of this district and has enjoyed large leads in pre-primary polling and campaign resources.

Back in South Texas, the 34th District hosts a Republican primary with two candidates having the same surname. Former Congresswoman Myra Flores is again seeking to return to the House in this Brownsville anchored seat, and this time her main Republican opponent is attorney and Army veteran Eric Flores, who President Trump has endorsed. We will see which Flores wins the party nomination, but victory may require a runoff because six others are on the ballot.

The eventual GOP winner will challenge incumbent Vicente Gonzales in a hotly contested campaign from a newly drawn district that is much more Republican. In 2024, President Trump carried the new version of this southeast Texas CD that hugs the Gulf of America with 55 percent of the vote.

The new 35th District is anchored in South Bexar County (San Antonio) and then stretches into rural southeast Texas. Here, we see a crowded Republican primary with likely two people advancing to a runoff election, one of which is probably state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) who Gov. Abbott backs.

Local business owner Carlos De La Cruz (R), brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), is a candidate in this district and has President Trump’s support. College professor Josh Cortez is another contender who could conceivably qualify for the GOP runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be favored in the general election.

In Travis County, Congressman Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin) will not seek a 17th term, yielding instead to two-term Rep. Greg Casar (D-Austin) because the two were paired in the new 37th CD. Without major opposition, Rep. Casar is a lock for renomination and re-election.

The Harris County-anchored 38th District is open because Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is running for the Senate. This is yet another open Republican seat that has drawn multiple candidates. Among the 10 running for the GOP nomination, only one, Tomball School Board Member Michael Pratt, has won an election.

President Trump and many other Republican leaders have endorsed mortgage broker Jon Bonck. Expect the primary vote to yield a runoff. The eventual Republican nominee will be a lock for the general election.

Looking Forward to March

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 5, 2026

Midterms

As we begin Midterm Election ‘26, we look to the nation’s first set of primaries, five of which will take place in the month of March.

Casting the first regular midterm cycle ballots will be voters in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas on March 3; Mississippi on March 10; and Illinois a week later, on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17.

Candidate filing has closed in all five states, and four of the five employ a runoff system. Only Illinois will select nominees through a plurality vote. Arkansas, Texas, and Mississippi feature 50 percent plus-1 vote nomination thresholds, while North Carolina candidates clinch their party’s nomination when exceeding 30 percent.

March 3:

Arkansas — The Natural State voters are looking at a quiet midterm election, just as the Republicans desire. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is on the ballot for a second term. She faces no renomination competition. For the Democrats, state Sen. Fred Love (D-Mabelvale) and magazine publisher Bupha Xayprasith-Mays battle for the party nomination, and realistically for the right to lose to Gov. Sanders in the general election.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R) faces little in the way of primary opposition. He will easily defeat his two minor Republican opponents in the March 3 primary. He will probably face Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar (D) in the general election. Sen. Cotton will be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a third term in November.

Three of the four congressional incumbents, all Republicans, face no GOP opposition. Only Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) has a minor Republican opponent. All four Arkansas US Representatives are heavy favorites for re-election.

North Carolina — The open US Senate race is the only Tar Heel statewide campaign in 2026, and the nominees are virtually set long before voters cast ballots in the March 3 election.

Both former Gov. Roy Cooper and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley — though each face a large number of intra-party opponents — will glide to their respective Democratic and Republican nominations. The general election, however, will feature one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation.

With a new congressional map yielding little in the way of general election competition, a great deal of political attention will be centered upon the new 1st District. There, Republicans hope to unseat two-term Democratic incumbent Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

The 1st was the focal point of the 2025 redistricting plan, and now the district moves clearly into the lean Republican column from its previous Democratic tilt. With Rep. Davis winning re-election by less than two percentage points in 2024, the re-draw will give the edge to the new Republican nominee.

Laurie Buckhout, the ’24 GOP nominee who almost defeated Rep. Davis, returns for a re-match and is favored to win the Republican primary against state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

The other major primary campaign comes on the Democratic side in the state’s 4th CD. There, freshman Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) fights for renomination against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Expect the Congresswoman to prevail on March 3, but this race will likely host an ideologically driven campaign.

Texas — The Lone Star State will feature a major March 3 primary. The Senate race for both parties will headline the primary vote. Republican Sen. John Cornyn looks to be facing a runoff election, assuming he qualifies, with either Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The only certainty here appears that no candidate will receive majority support.

For the Democrats, the party primary will likely decide whether Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) or state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) will win the nomination. It is probable that the first-place finisher will exceed the 50 percent majority threshold. The eventual Republican nominee will be rated as at least a slight favorite in the general election, but the contest will be competitive.

Gov. Greg Abbott will win a fourth nomination as Governor against minor opponents. The Democrats will likely head to a gubernatorial runoff election and probably between two of the following three contenders: state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), former Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell, and businessman Andrew White, son of the late former Governor Mark White. Gov. Abbott will be favored in the general election.

The US House races in Texas feature 11 open seats among the state’s 38 districts. Six of the 11 are Republican-held with three new seats created through the 2025 redistricting map.

The Democrats will feature a District 18 paired battle including both Jan. 31 special election candidates, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and ex-Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston).

The other open Democratic seat lies in Dallas and Tarrant counties since Rep. Crockett is running for Senate. The six open Republican seats and three new districts all feature crowded primaries. Advancing to runoffs in each situation appears as a virtual certainty.

March 10:

Mississippi — Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term and will be favored for re-election. She faces only one minor GOP opponent. The likely Democratic nominee, also expected to win the party nomination outright, is Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom. We can expect the Democrats to mount an effort in the general election, but it will be difficult to unseat Sen. Hyde-Smith in this reliably Republican state.

The only serious primary contest occurs in the state’s Delta region. Second District veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) has drawn a primary opponent in the person of attorney and former congressional aide Evan Turnage. This contest is expected to be a generational battle as opposed to being ideologically based. Turnage will attempt to create a contrast between himself, as a challenger in his 40s, and an incumbent in his late 70s. Expect Rep. Thompson to again prevail, but this could become a contest that draws significant political attention.

March 17:

Illinois — The major Illinois contest is the open US Senate Democratic primary. Here, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) appears to have the inside track toward winning the plurality election. He is favored to defeat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). The Democratic nominee then becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is on the ballot for a third term and is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Six Republicans, including 2022 party nominee Darren Bailey, are competing. Regardless of who comes through the GOP battle, Gov. Pritzker will be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

As in Texas, Illinois features a large number of open US House seats. In the Land of Lincoln, five of the state’s 17 congressional seats are open, all currently Democratic held districts. We will see nomination clinching elections in every Illinois CD on March 17. Each of the five open seats will remain Democratic in the general election.

Among the notable campaigns is a comeback attempt from former Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D), who has a reasonable chance of winning the crowded 2nd District Democratic primary. The winner will replace Rep. Kelly. Should Jackson return to the House, he will join his brother, Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), in the congressional delegation.

Another former member, Melissa Bean, is attempting to regain the 8th District seat she lost in 2010; she has a good chance of being successful.

The open 4th District campaign is controversial in that retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) didn’t announce his retirement decision, thus allowing his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to declare at the end of the filing period; therefore, she is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Garcia, no relation to the Congressman, will likely face major competition in the general election, however.

Two prominent Democrats, including Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independent candidates. The Illinois ballot requirements for non-major party candidates are substantial, but the potential candidates have until May 26 to qualify.