Category Archives: Primary

Colorado Primary Results:
Sen. Bennet & Rep. DeGette Lose

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Colorado

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

What once appeared as a virtual sure bet for Sen. Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat last night, and the result wasn’t close; and with pre-election polling trends running against 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loss statistic.

Sen. Bennet will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career. His 2028 situation, should he choose to seek re-election as Senator, would certainly make him more vulnerable in a new Democratic primary, however.

The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44 percent, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet, who still had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.

Weiser, who won two statewide races as Attorney General but was term-limited in 2026, has a compelling story in that his mother was born in a concentration camp during WWII because his grandmother was being held as a prisoner of the Nazi regime. Furthermore, with a political party moving closer toward the Palestinian coalition and away from Israel, Weiser highlighted his Jewish heritage and still won going away. Therefore, this incumbent defeat is not like most of the others we’ve seen this year but is another indication that perceived establishment candidates are doing poorly.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)

In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 51-42 percent defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. Polling showed DeGette trailing, and she qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes at the 1st District nominating convention. Each clue revealed Rep. DeGette’s weakness in campaigning for renomination. Conversely, at the district nominating convention, Kiros attracted almost 70 percent of the delegate votes.

There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race who fails to claim his party’s nomination.

Of the seven, five – now including DeGette – are Democrats. The others are Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). The Republicans are Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).

Democratic Socialists are responsible for three of the defeats: Reps. DeGette, Goldman, and Espaillat.

Al Green attempts to blame his loss on a new redistricting map, but the overwhelming majority of the new 18th District constituency carried over from his own district, suggesting the new district boundaries were not the principal reason for his losing to recently elected Congressman Christian Menefee, 68-32 percent.

In the case of freshman Rep. Johnson, redistricting was a major factor in her losing to former Congressman Colin Allred, since her 32nd District was transformed into a Republican seat, thus forcing her to seek re-election in the newly drawn 33rd District.

On the Republican side, Rep. Crenshaw’s loss in his Harris County-anchored CD began the string of incumbent losses. Rep. Massie, likely the most well-known nationally of the defeated Representatives, lost because of his feud with President Trump; this was also the case with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Being tabbed by Trump as the most anti-Trump Republican Congressman led to Massie suffering a 55-45 percent loss in a district that he had won seven times.

Turning back to Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign, but with only a 55-45 percent margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.

In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero, who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.

In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Thornton). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34 percent over former state Rep. Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.

Maine: Ranked Choice Voting
System Changes Outcomes

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 22, 2026

Ranked Choice Voting

Ten days after Maine’s June 9th primary, the Secretary of State’s office finally released the results of the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulations, and the post‑election redistribution altered the final outcome in two major races.

(Click on image to see example larger.)

Under Maine’s RCV system, the process activates when no candidate receives a majority of first‑choice votes. Once it is determined that the leading candidate holds only a plurality, the last‑place finisher is eliminated, and that candidate’s next available rankings are then added to the aggregate totals. This elimination‑and‑redistribution cycle continues until only two candidates remain, at which point the final round determines the official result.

Maine uses RCV only in primaries and federal elections. The state Supreme Court has ruled that the Maine Constitution recognizes plurality winners in state general elections, meaning RCV cannot be applied there. The court also held that it lacks jurisdiction over party‑run primaries and federal contests, so it cannot block RCV in those elections.

In the open Governor’s race, former state Health Director Nirav Shah led the Democratic primary in the initial count but ultimately lost in the RCV rounds. The official Democratic nominee is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D‑North Haven/Portland).

Although Pingree trailed Dr. Shah 27-23 percent in first‑choice votes, she gained steadily through second and third choice rankings. In the fourth and final round – after the field had narrowed to those two – she prevailed 56-44 percent.

Businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I‑ME), was the first candidate eliminated, and his votes were redistributed according to the voters’ alternate rankings.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows was eliminated next, and the addition of her supporters’ ranked choices pushed Pingree ahead of Shah for the first time, by an adjusted margin of 2,990 votes. After former state Senate President Troy Jackson was eliminated, the fourth round matched Pingree against Shah, producing the final outcome.
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On the Republican side, RCV did not alter the standings. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles led on election night with a 38-20-20 percent advantage over businessman Ben Midgley and attorney Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The order remained unchanged through seven RCV rounds, and Charles officially secured the nomination with a 60-40 percent final‑round margin over Midgley.

Pingree and Charles now advance to the general election, where they will also face Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committeeman, left the GOP to run as an Independent, believing he would be more competitive in a three-way race without the party designation. His presence on the ballot is expected to draw votes away from Charles, thus making Pingree a heavy favorite in November.

RCV also changed the outcome in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. On election night, state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D‑Bangor), brother of former Governor and Congressman John Baldacci, held a narrow lead. But in the second round of RCV tabulation only 546 votes separated Baldacci, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. In the third round, Dunlap overtook Baldacci and won the nomination with just over 52 percent of the adjusted vote.

Dunlap, therefore, advances to face former Gov.Paul LePage in the general election. LePage was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican‑leaning seat in the country that a Democrat currently represents: retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D‑Lewiston).

The 2026 general election is expected to be competitive. Given that LePage carried the 2nd District in all three of his gubernatorial campaigns, he enters this general election campaign as the early favorite.

Moore, Collins Win Senate Runoffs; Hern has Solid Win in Oklahoma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 17

Runoffs were conducted in both Alabama and Georgia yesterday; Oklahoma hosted its primary election. Most of these states’ notable races now have nominees.

Alabama

The Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Last night’s winner is Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44 percent margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff last night.

Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19 by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified. Former President Trump endorsed Moore during the primary.

Georgia

Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.

Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.

For his part, though recording the victory last night, Rep. Collins lost all the Atlanta metro counties but won everywhere else in the state. If he is to unseat Sen. Ossoff, Collins must improve his performance in the region’s largest population area.

In the Governor’s race, a Trump-endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Burt Jones, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, who was endorsed by both President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19 primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.

Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington last night. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35 percent victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson.

Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).

Oklahoma

The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70 percent of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.

Democrats will choose their nominee in an Aug. 25 runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.

The Oklahoma Senate seat is open because then-incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) resigned to accept President Trump’s appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Mullin’s replacement in the Senate, businessman Alan Armstrong (R), as an interim appointment is ineligible to run for a full term under the state’s succession law.

In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32 percent in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. The Republican runoff winner will be the heavy favorite to win the general election.

In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated last night. Each exceeded the 70 percent vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination.

All four House incumbents, and the winner of the 1st District Republican runoff, will all enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.

Oklahoma Primary Preview;
Today’s CA-14 Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Oklahoma

The Sooner State holds elections today in addition to the Alabama and Georgia runoffs we covered yesterday. Should no Oklahoma candidate secure majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff election.

With then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) leaving office to become Homeland Security Secretary, we will now see an open Oklahoma US Senate campaign. Under state law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to participate in the succeeding general election. Therefore, appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) will serve only until the next Congress begins in January 2027.

The clear favorite to win the Republican nomination and then the general election is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa). All the national and state party leaders have endorsed Rep. Hern including President Trump and term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Four other Republicans are competing for the nomination, but it will be surprising if Rep. Hern fails to win outright.

The open Governor’s race, however, will very likely go to a runoff. Nine Republicans are vying for the party nomination.

The latest polling suggests a four-way contest among Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former State Budget Secretary and ex-state Sen. Mike Mazzei, and former State Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, the son of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (1995-2003); Keating was previously an Associate US Attorney General in the Reagan Administration. Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall, who led early in polling but has since dropped back, also is a candidate.

In Oklahoma’s US House races, the four remaining Republican incumbents, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman), and Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) will all win renomination tonight. Each are solid favorites to win another term in the general election.

In Rep. Hern’s open Tulsa-anchored 1st District, we see a crowded 10-person Republican primary. Three appear as strong candidates. Pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer, who President Trump and the Republican leadership support, is viewed as the leading contender. State Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) and businessman Nathan Butterfield are also competitive candidates. Two of these three advancing to a runoff election is a likelihood.

The lone Democratic candidate is Tulsa School Board member John Croisant. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the November election.

CA-14

Another of the current cycle’s special congressional elections continues today. The contest is in California’s East San Francisco Bay area Congressional District 14 from which ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after a series of scandalous behavior incidents became known, mostly involving unwanted advances individually against multiple women.

Under California special election procedure, all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation or stated preference. If a candidate attracts majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers advance to a special general election. In this case, the special general election, if necessary, is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Two weeks ago, in the regular California 2026 primary election, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) placed first in the jungle primary but with 38.3 percent of the vote within a field of nine candidates. Irrespective of how the special election concludes, Sen. Wahab will advance to the 2026 regular election against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez (17.2 percent), a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board Member and a former city of Dublin mayor.

For the special election, the winner of which will serve the balance of former Rep. Swalwell’s term, 11 candidates are on the ballot, including Sen. Wahab and Hernandez.

It would not be surprising to see a similar result to what we saw in the June 2 primary with Wahab and Hernandez finishing first and second, but far below the necessary 50 percent plateau necessary toward immediately assuming the seat.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 14th District’s partisan lean is and overwhelming 68.4D – 30.6R, meaning a Republican candidate would have virtually no chance to win an election here.

The 14th CD sits on the southeast side of the Bay sandwiched in between the cities of Oakland and San Jose. The major population centers are the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The East Bay region has been in Democratic hands consecutively since the 1974 election. Three individuals, all Democrats, represented the area during that time. They are, Reps. Norm Mineta, Fortney H. “Pete” Stark, and Swalwell.

Yesterday’s Primary Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Primaries

Voters finalized, or nearly finalized, their nomination votes yesterday in four states, and the generally expected results were produced though some featured close endings.

While the South Carolina Republican Governor’s campaign was thought to be headed toward a razor-thin vote margin among five candidates, instead the race ended with two clear runoff participants. In Maine, where one individual posted clear leads in polls during the length of the campaign, saw a very close five-way contest advancing to Ranked Choice Voting rounds.

Maine

In the Senate race against no active primary opposition, controversial oyster farmer Graham Platner won the Democratic primary with approximately 72 percent of the vote. Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her Senate campaign when it became obvious that she could not overtake Platner, recorded approximately 20 percent of the vote.

Sen. Susan Collins was unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. The Collins-Platner general election will be another tough campaign, but a much different one than she faced in 2020. In that election, Sen. Collins’ opponent was a seasoned politician in then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon.

This time, it is an opponent portraying himself as a local working man but as more becomes known about him, many of his previous statements lead to questions about his veracity. Count on hearing a great deal about the Maine Senate race in the general election.

The Democratic Governor’s campaign will take some time to unfold. While Dr. Nirav Shah held healthy leads in polls throughout the year, four finished within six points of one another. With Dr. Shah placing first with only 26.5 percent, the Ranked Choice rounds will determine the outcome.

It is possible that any of the four, Dr. Shah, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows all have a path to victory in the Ranked Choice rounds. This race will consume at least a week to decide and possibly more.

For the Republicans, RCV rounds will also be required though former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles has a substantial 18 percentage point lead. Therefore, both gubernatorial campaigns are headed to political overtime.

In the 2nd Congressional District, the Democratic field will go to the Ranked Choice Voting rounds as state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), former congressional aide Jordan Wood, and State Auditor Matt Dunlap are all within a three percentage point split. Fourth place finisher Paige Loud will be eliminated when the other three advance to the RCV rounds.

It will likely be more than a week before we also know the outcome of this campaign. The eventual winner will face former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the open general election. Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) did not seek re-election.

Nevada

The Nevada gubernatorial campaign was a non-event. Gov. Joe Lombardo received just short of 92 percent in the Republican primary and Attorney General Aaron Ford was a 65 percent winner on the Democratic side. A close general election race is expected. In a point of good news for the GOP, approximately 14,000 more Republicans than Democrats are projected to have voted in the respective primaries.

In the House races, all three Las Vegas Democratic incumbents were easily renominated, and each Republican favorite also won.

In District 1, state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) will oppose veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas). The Congresswoman is favored for re-election, but Sen. Buck is clearly the best candidate the GOP has filed in this district.

In CD 3, musical composer and video gaming company co-owner Marty O’Donnell was an easy Republican primary winner giving him the opportunity of facing four-term Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in one of the few districts that supported President Trump but sent a Democrat to the House. This is a toss-up general election campaign.

In District 4, where veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was unopposed for renomination, businessman and rancher Cody Whipple was an easy Republican primary winner. Of the three Las Vegas congressional districts, this is the most Democratic seat.

In District 2, the state’s lone Republican congressional seat, it appears that Trump-endorsed retired Air Force officer David Flippo is headed for a close victory over State Conservation Secretary and Gov. Lombardo-endorsed candidate James Settelmeyer.

Former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson is the Democratic primary winner. The Reno-anchored 2nd CD should remain in the Republican column but expect Democrats to make a concerted effort here to make the general election competitive.

North Dakota

There was little in the way of political intrigue in North Dakota last night. As expected, freshman at-large Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) was easily renominated with 73 percent of the vote.

On the Democratic side, 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer, who lost in a landslide in the last election, was unopposed for renomination last night. It is likely we will see a repeat performance in the 2026 at-large congressional election.

South Carolina

In a Republican gubernatorial primary campaign that was expected to be close among five candidates, the first two finishers ended the race breaking away from the field.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who carried both President Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsements, placed first with 28.9 percent of the vote. Four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson was second with 26.1 percent support. Both now advance to a quick runoff election scheduled for June 23. The winner of that race will have the inside track to winning the general election in safely Republican South Carolina.

Approximately 10 percentage points behind the top two finishers was a closely bunched group; in order of finish, they were Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), businessman Rom Reddy, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). These three are now eliminated.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) was an easy winner, scoring approximately 58 percent of the vote against two opponents. Because he exceeded the majority threshold figure, Johnson advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, as expected, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), on the ballot seeking a fifth six-year term, captured 57 percent of the vote against five opponents and will advance directly into the general election where he will again be favored to win re-election.

For the Democrats, pediatrician Annie Andrews was an easy 62 percent winner over two opponents. She, too, advances directly into the general election.

Turning to Rep. Mace’s open 1st District, a runoff election between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Columbia) will be held on June 23. Honeycutt placed first with 22 percent against 10 opponents, four points ahead of Rep. Smith. The winner will become a heavy favorite in the general election.

Different Primaries, Different Ways of Tallying the Votes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Primaries

Four states are holding primary elections today – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina – and each has different ways of managing its votes.

Maine uses a Ranked Choice Voting system, which recent polling suggests could drastically alter the Democratic gubernatorial primary outcome once second- and third-choice preferences are tabulated. North Dakota relies on a strong party endorsement process that often makes the state primary, including today’s, largely a formality.

Nevada employs a straightforward plurality system in which the top vote getter advances regardless of the percentage received. South Carolina, by contrast, requires a runoff if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold.

Therefore, in today’s June 9 primary elections, we see nearly every major type of nominating system in use. The only other method, observed last week in California, is the top-two “jungle” primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party preference, appear on a single ballot and the two highest finishers advance to the general election irrespective of the vote percentage attained.

Lively debate often arises in political circles over which nominating system works best. For those who believe it is essential for a party’s nominee to demonstrate majority support, a secondary runoff election is the preferred approach. States such as Alabama and Georgia, which will hold runoffs next week, and South Carolina, which follows on June 23, use this method to ensure the eventual nominee surpasses the 50 percent threshold.

Other states simply rely on a basic plurality system: whoever receives the most votes wins. The drawback, however, is that in a crowded field a candidate can secure a nomination with less than 30 percent support. North Carolina uses a modified approach – its runoff provision is triggered only if no candidate reaches 30 percent. South Dakota and Iowa also hold a secondary process (SD: a runoff; IA: a state party convention) should no candidate receive 35 percent in the primary election.

In addition to North Dakota, several states – most notably Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Utah, with Virginia also having the option of holding a binding nominating convention – conduct important state party endorsement conventions. These gatherings often play a decisive role in shaping the field. Candidates who fail to secure the party’s backing frequently withdraw afterward, and in many cases are expected to step aside if they do not win the delegate vote.

The one procedure that can significantly alter the outcome from the initial vote count is the Ranked Choice Voting system used in Maine. According to a recent Democratic gubernatorial primary poll, it is possible for a candidate who finishes third in the actual vote count to ultimately secure the nomination once all ranked choice votes are distributed.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, the organization that advocates for Ranked Choice Voting, tested both the initial ballot preferences and the subsequent RCV rounds. SurveyUSA (May 28-June 3; 484 likely Democratic primary voters; 466 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) provided a credible model for how the ranked choice tabulation could unfold after the first round vote.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Ranked Choice Voting model closely mirrored the initial ballot test. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles placed first among respondents on the ballot test question. Businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H. W. and George W. Bush, placed second, followed by former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, with the remaining candidates trailing well behind.

After three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting, during which voters’ preferences are redistributed as lower finishing candidates are eliminated, the model shows Charles surpassing the 50 percent threshold. Under the RCV rules, reaching a majority in a tabulation secures the nomination.

The Democratic contest presents a very different dynamic, and it is here that critics highlight what they view as a flaw in Ranked Choice Voting. While supporters argue that the system ensures the candidate with the broadest overall backing ultimately prevails, detractors contend that, in practice, it can amplify the influence of the most ideologically extreme voters participating in the primary. They argue that the ranked preferences may elevate a candidate who was not among the top initial vote getters.

When a candidate is eliminated for lack of support, only the voters who ranked that individual first have their subsequent preferences redistributed into the tally. Critics argue that this dynamic can distort the outcome. Opponents of Ranked Choice Voting contend that giving these later round preferences additional weight can allow a small, highly motivated faction to alter the final result to the detriment of the initial top-tier finishers.

In the Maine Democratic example, former Maine Health Department Director Nirav Shah placed first in the initial ballot test, followed by former state Senate President Troy Jackson, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, businessman Angus King III, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.

With no candidate reaching 50 percent, the last-place finisher, in this poll, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, would be eliminated. Election officials would then identify the ballots on which she was ranked first and redistribute those voters’ next preferences to the remaining candidates. This process continues through successive RCV rounds until one contender attains an adjusted majority.

In the SurveyUSA poll, the Ranked Choice Voting simulation requires four rounds and ultimately elevates the third-place finisher, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), to the top position, with Dr. Nirav Shah finishing a close second in the adjusted tally.

This example illustrates how a candidate who does not lead in the initial vote count can nonetheless emerge as the nominee once lower ranking preferences are redistributed.
While this is only a poll and not an actual election, the outlined scenario is structurally possible under Maine’s RCV system. We will see how the real results unfold tonight, and in the days ahead, as election officials complete the multi round tabulation that the Ranked Choice Voting system requires.

Four-State Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 8, 2026

Voters in a total of four states complete their primary voting tomorrow and several races are still too difficult to project just a day before the election. The June 9 primary states are Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

>Maine

The Maine ballot features a highly competitive Governor’s race in both primaries, a highly publicized Senate race that will become one of the top national campaigns in the general election, and a 2nd Congressional District that could prove to be the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the country.

For the Democrats, their crowded primary is very likely to produce a first-place finisher who is well below the 50 percent plateau. If so, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds will then begin. Polling throughout the year has favored former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, but whether he can flourish in the RCV rounds is an unanswered question.

Dr. Shah’s principal opponents are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), former state Senate President Troy Jackson, and ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

The most recent poll comes from Survey USA (May 28-6-3; 484 likely Maine Democratic primary voters). The ballot test results find Dr. Shah again in first place but with a declining 25 percent. In second place is Jackson (20 percent), who has been the candidate showing the most late momentum, Pingree just a point behind at 19 percent, with King and Bellows trailing with 17 and 11 percent, respectively.

Survey USA also ran a Ranked Choice Voting test. At the end of their projected four rounds, it was Pingree topping Dr. Shah with a 52-48 percent margin. The first candidate eliminated in RCV round two was Bellows, who was the subject of national controversy early in the 2024 election when she denied a ballot position to President Trump. King was then projected to fall in round three, while Jackson was eliminated in round four but by just one point. Therefore, it appears this race is anyone’s game once the Ranked Choice rounds begin.

To refresh, instead of voting for one candidate, individuals rank all candidates in preference order. If no one receives 50 percent, the candidate with the smallest number of actual general election votes, Bellows according to the S-USA poll, is eliminated. Election officials then find the ballots that listed Bellows as the first choice. Then, only those ballots’ second choice selections are added to the aggregate vote. The process continues until one candidate receives majority support.

For the Republicans, the gubernatorial contest appears to be narrowing to a choice between former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles and businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to former President George W. Bush.

Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, an oysterman, has attracted a great deal of national media attention of late and will likely do so throughout the general election campaign. The Susan Collins-Graham Platner contest will be one of the top national contests to determine the next Senate majority.

Tomorrow night, however, even though Gov. Janet Mills’ name remains on the Democratic ballot for the Senate, she suspended her campaign weeks ago when it was apparent that she could not overcome the Platner polling lead. Tomorrow’s primary election is now anti-climactic, but the general election will draw more than its share of national media attention.

The 2nd Congressional District is also of great interest. On the Republican side, two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who has again returned from Florida to run for office in Maine, is unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Democrats have an interesting primary that will likely move to the Ranked Choice rounds. The principal contenders are state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. The Democratic outcome is uncertain. Sen. Baldacci should be favored, but he is further to the center than the Democratic base voter, thus potentially giving the more liberal Dunlap a chance to prevail.

For those Maine races forced into Ranked Choice rounds, we can expect a lengthy counting period to last several days and likely well into next week if not beyond.

Nevada

The Governor’s race is virtually locked. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) will very likely face Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in what will, again, be a tight statewide general election finish in the Silver State.

In the 2nd Congressional District from which GOP incumbent Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) is retiring, we see 12 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. State Conservation Secretary and ex-state Sen. James Settelmeyer appears to be the favorite. However, in such a large field and with only Settelmeyer and financial advisor David Flippo raising or self-funding significant money, one of those two will potentially win tomorrow night.

Democrats are raising significant funds, and despite the fact that we see a partisan lean of 53.8R – 40.5D (Dave’s Redistricting App), expect the Democrats to put this seat in play once one of their 11 candidates claims the nomination. Nevada has a plurality primary system, so we will see winners clinching tomorrow night.

North Dakota

Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary. For the Democrats, we see 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer returning for a rematch. In 2024, he lost to Fedorchak by a whopping 69-30 percent count. Expect a similar result in the 2026 re-match.

South Carolina

The open Republican battle to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is, like the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary, a multi-candidate affair where the outcome is still undetermined. It is conceivable that any combination of the five candidates could advance to the June 23 runoff election.

The candidates are: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who holds the Trump and McMaster endorsements, Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and businessman Rom Reddy.

Polling has been prevalent and, at one time or another, each has been in runoff position. It is clear that no one will claim the nomination tomorrow night. Rather, who qualifies for the runoff will be the key story of the night. The eventual Republican nominee should cruise in the general election.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) faces credible opposition in the person of businessman Mark Lynch and others, but the Senator should easily prevail. He will not join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) as Republican incumbents who lose renomination.

In the House, the major open seat battle comes in Rep. Mace’s Charleston and Berkeley counties anchored 1st District where 10 candidates are fighting for the right to replace the three-term US House incumbent. Dr. Sam McCown and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) appear to be the most likely pair to advance into a Republican runoff. The race outcome, however, is still uncertain.

One open seat where the result is certain comes in Rep. Norman’s 5th District located south of Charlotte, NC. In a safe Republican seat, state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) is unopposed in the GOP primary. He will be the next Congressman from this South Carolina congressional district.