Tag Archives: North Carolina

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Results: Gonzales Out in Texas; Rep. Owens to Retire in Utah; Allam Concedes to Foushee in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 6, 2026

Texas

Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio)

• Now admitting to having an affair with his late staff member who committed suicide, thus recanting his previous claims that he had not engaged in adultery, three-term v (R-San Antonio) last night conceded the 23rd District Republican runoff election to gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera. The Congressman also committed to serving the balance of the present term.

He is now the second House incumbent denied renomination in the 2026 election cycle. The other is Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble), who lost outright on Tuesday night.

Many Republicans were calling upon Gonzales to concede the runoff but muted their personal criticism. With such a small majority, the Republican leadership could not afford for the Congressman to resign.

Therefore, last night’s decision and announcement is seemingly the GOP leadership’s best-case scenario. Now they can openly support Herrera in order to hold the seat in the general election, while keeping Gonzales in the House to serve the balance of the term.

The entire Gonzales scenario presented a difficult political tightrope for Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team to walk, but it appears they have made the best of a difficult and complex circumstance.

• While the 18th CD Democratic primary has yet to yield final results, it is clear that paired Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Christian Menefee (D-Houston) will advance to a runoff election. Though former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards had withdrawn from the race, her name still appeared on Tuesday’s ballot and attracted about eight percent of the vote. Her total is enough to deny a majority to Rep. Menefee who has a slight lead. This means the race will be decided in a new election on May 26.

• The candidates vying to replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock) in Texas’ 19th CD will advance into a runoff election but only one of the participants is currently known. Agribusinessman Tom Sell has secured the first position.

Separated by just 193 votes in second and third place are Gov. Abbott supported Abraham Enriquez and businessman Matt Smith, with only provisional and overseas ballots remaining to count. One of the latter two will advance into the runoff once the final vote tabulations are published.

• In the new open 32nd District, businessman Jace Yarbrough, who enjoys support from both President Trump and Governor Greg Abbott, is knocking on the door of 50%, but may fall just short. Therefore, second place finisher Ryan Binkley, the 2024 long shot presidential candidate who trails Yarbrough by approximately 30 percentage points, can either force the runoff or concede.

• Because of voting issues in Dallas County, some ballots remain uncounted in the region’s 33rd Congressional District Democratic primary, but it is clear that former Congressman Colin Allred, who leads the primary by 11 percentage points, and freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) will advance to a runoff election.

• In the Houston-anchored open 38th District, businessman Jon Bonck is another contender close to, but not at, the majority support level required to secure nomination. Like in District 32, it will be up to a trailing second-place finisher, likely businesswoman Shelly deZevallos, to decide if she will force a runoff or concedes.

In all Texas races, the runoffs are scheduled for May 26.

Utah

Due to an unfavorable redistricting court decision, one Utah Republican congressional seat has been collapsed in favor of drawing a Democratic seat in Salt Lake City.

With all the courts now backing the initial judicial decision, three-term Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), who will turn 75 years old before the election, announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election. His decision saves Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) from being paired in a single district.

North Carolina

Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has conceded to Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) in the state’s close 4th Congressional District Democratic primary. It appeared that Rep. Foushee’s small 1,202-vote lead over Allam would hold because only provisional and overseas ballots remain. Clearly, Commissioner Allam and her campaign strategists agreed with such an analysis.

Now that the primary is over, Rep. Foushee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.

March 3rd Primary Preview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 2, 2026

Special Elections

Voters in three states will continue casting their ballots for tomorrow’s first-in-the-nation set of midterm primary elections. The three states are: Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

All three places feature runoff systems. In Arkansas and Texas, candidates must receive majority support in the primary or a secondary election follows. It is unlikely we will see federal election runoffs in Arkansas, but if we do, those associated contests will be held on March 31. Texas will host a series of federal runoffs on May 26, ending what will be a very long runoff cycle.

North Carolina has only a 30 percent vote threshold to secure nomination, so runoffs are few and far between. If a federal runoff proves necessary, that election will be held on May 12th.

Texas will host the major primary of the early voting domains. We will cover the Texas House races in tomorrow’s report because the state has 10 open US House seats and four incumbents who are in highly competitive campaigns. Today, we look at the dynamic Texas Senate race.

Sen. John Cornyn is in a tough Republican primary battle against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Tomorrow’s primary vote will almost certainly force a runoff election, probably between Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton. Therefore, the Republicans won’t likely identify their 2026 nominee until May 26.

On the Democratic side, a similarly robust battle has emerged between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). Polls have been inconsistent and both candidates can point to surveys posting them to a lead.

Regardless of who wins the Democratic primary, the Republicans will face an onslaught of campaign activity for the general election even though the Democrats have not won a Texas statewide election since 1994.

Regardless of the outcome of each nomination contest, the Lone Star State will host a premier general election Senate campaign.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on the ballot seeking a fourth term. If he is re-elected in November and serves most of the succeeding term, Abbott will become Texas’ longest serving Governor in state history. He will secure renomination tomorrow. The likely Democratic winner is state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), but whether she reaches the 50 percent threshold is still open to question.

Congressman Chip Roy (R-Austin) is competing in the open Attorney General’s race and is leading in the polls. It is probable he will advance into the secondary runoff election,` most likely against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

The North Carolina Senate race will be one of the premier contests in the general election, but the nominations appear set even before all votes are cast in tomorrow’s Tar Heel State primary.

Former Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper will be the Democratic nominee while former Republican National Committee chairman, and ex-North Carolina Republican Party chairman, Michael Whatley will capture the GOP nomination. Both will easily exceed the 30 percent support threshold to win their respective primaries.

Three House races are worth monitoring tomorrow night. In the state’s newly redrawn 1st District, which now favors Republicans to a much stronger degree, a five-person GOP primary has emerged with the eventual winner challenging two-term Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

Former Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a victory spread of less than two percentage points in a more favorable Democratic district during the previous election. She is one of the favorites to win tomorrow night. The other significant competitors are Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), and Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse. Polling suggests that Buckhout has the edge over Sheriff Buck, but the outcome could be close.

In the Durham-Chapel Hill-anchored 4th CD in, two-term Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough) is working to repel a challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who is backed by substantial outside money.

The two faced off, among others, in the 2022 Democratic primary when the seat was last open. Foushee, then a state Senator, outdistanced Allam by nine percentage points in that election. Rep. Foushee’s outside support has come in late, so the outcome remains a question mark though the Congresswoman is still regarded as at least a slight favorite.

Turning to western North Carolina, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) faces a challenge from former Green Beret Adam R. Smith who claims to have over 3,000 campaign volunteers. He doesn’t have a great deal of money, however, showing only $66,524 raised through the Feb. 11 pre-primary financial disclosure report.

More action appears on the Democratic side, where three candidates have raised over $100,000 for their primary campaign. The fundraising leader is agribusinessman Jamie Ager who attracted more than $940,000 through the same Feb. 11th financial disclosure deadline.

The 11th CD carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. President Trump scored a 54-45 percent victory here in 2024. On the edge of competitiveness, this race could be one to watch in the general election.

In Arkansas, none of the state’s top office holders see major renomination competition. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) and Reps. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro), Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Fayetteville), and Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) are unopposed. Sen. Tom Cotton (R) and Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) face only minor opponents.

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.

Looking Forward to March

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 5, 2026

Midterms

As we begin Midterm Election ‘26, we look to the nation’s first set of primaries, five of which will take place in the month of March.

Casting the first regular midterm cycle ballots will be voters in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas on March 3; Mississippi on March 10; and Illinois a week later, on St. Patrick’s Day, March 17.

Candidate filing has closed in all five states, and four of the five employ a runoff system. Only Illinois will select nominees through a plurality vote. Arkansas, Texas, and Mississippi feature 50 percent plus-1 vote nomination thresholds, while North Carolina candidates clinch their party’s nomination when exceeding 30 percent.

March 3:

Arkansas — The Natural State voters are looking at a quiet midterm election, just as the Republicans desire. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) is on the ballot for a second term. She faces no renomination competition. For the Democrats, state Sen. Fred Love (D-Mabelvale) and magazine publisher Bupha Xayprasith-Mays battle for the party nomination, and realistically for the right to lose to Gov. Sanders in the general election.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R) faces little in the way of primary opposition. He will easily defeat his two minor Republican opponents in the March 3 primary. He will probably face Lewisville Mayor Ethan Dunbar (D) in the general election. Sen. Cotton will be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a third term in November.

Three of the four congressional incumbents, all Republicans, face no GOP opposition. Only Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) has a minor Republican opponent. All four Arkansas US Representatives are heavy favorites for re-election.

North Carolina — The open US Senate race is the only Tar Heel statewide campaign in 2026, and the nominees are virtually set long before voters cast ballots in the March 3 election.

Both former Gov. Roy Cooper and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley — though each face a large number of intra-party opponents — will glide to their respective Democratic and Republican nominations. The general election, however, will feature one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation.

With a new congressional map yielding little in the way of general election competition, a great deal of political attention will be centered upon the new 1st District. There, Republicans hope to unseat two-term Democratic incumbent Don Davis (D-Snow Hill).

The 1st was the focal point of the 2025 redistricting plan, and now the district moves clearly into the lean Republican column from its previous Democratic tilt. With Rep. Davis winning re-election by less than two percentage points in 2024, the re-draw will give the edge to the new Republican nominee.

Laurie Buckhout, the ’24 GOP nominee who almost defeated Rep. Davis, returns for a re-match and is favored to win the Republican primary against state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Currituck County), Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

The other major primary campaign comes on the Democratic side in the state’s 4th CD. There, freshman Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) fights for renomination against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Expect the Congresswoman to prevail on March 3, but this race will likely host an ideologically driven campaign.

Texas — The Lone Star State will feature a major March 3 primary. The Senate race for both parties will headline the primary vote. Republican Sen. John Cornyn looks to be facing a runoff election, assuming he qualifies, with either Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The only certainty here appears that no candidate will receive majority support.

For the Democrats, the party primary will likely decide whether Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) or state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) will win the nomination. It is probable that the first-place finisher will exceed the 50 percent majority threshold. The eventual Republican nominee will be rated as at least a slight favorite in the general election, but the contest will be competitive.

Gov. Greg Abbott will win a fourth nomination as Governor against minor opponents. The Democrats will likely head to a gubernatorial runoff election and probably between two of the following three contenders: state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin), former Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Chris Bell, and businessman Andrew White, son of the late former Governor Mark White. Gov. Abbott will be favored in the general election.

The US House races in Texas feature 11 open seats among the state’s 38 districts. Six of the 11 are Republican-held with three new seats created through the 2025 redistricting map.

The Democrats will feature a District 18 paired battle including both Jan. 31 special election candidates, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and ex-Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston).

The other open Democratic seat lies in Dallas and Tarrant counties since Rep. Crockett is running for Senate. The six open Republican seats and three new districts all feature crowded primaries. Advancing to runoffs in each situation appears as a virtual certainty.

March 10:

Mississippi — Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term and will be favored for re-election. She faces only one minor GOP opponent. The likely Democratic nominee, also expected to win the party nomination outright, is Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom. We can expect the Democrats to mount an effort in the general election, but it will be difficult to unseat Sen. Hyde-Smith in this reliably Republican state.

The only serious primary contest occurs in the state’s Delta region. Second District veteran Congressman Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) has drawn a primary opponent in the person of attorney and former congressional aide Evan Turnage. This contest is expected to be a generational battle as opposed to being ideologically based. Turnage will attempt to create a contrast between himself, as a challenger in his 40s, and an incumbent in his late 70s. Expect Rep. Thompson to again prevail, but this could become a contest that draws significant political attention.

March 17:

Illinois — The major Illinois contest is the open US Senate Democratic primary. Here, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) appears to have the inside track toward winning the plurality election. He is favored to defeat Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago). The Democratic nominee then becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is on the ballot for a third term and is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Six Republicans, including 2022 party nominee Darren Bailey, are competing. Regardless of who comes through the GOP battle, Gov. Pritzker will be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

As in Texas, Illinois features a large number of open US House seats. In the Land of Lincoln, five of the state’s 17 congressional seats are open, all currently Democratic held districts. We will see nomination clinching elections in every Illinois CD on March 17. Each of the five open seats will remain Democratic in the general election.

Among the notable campaigns is a comeback attempt from former Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D), who has a reasonable chance of winning the crowded 2nd District Democratic primary. The winner will replace Rep. Kelly. Should Jackson return to the House, he will join his brother, Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago), in the congressional delegation.

Another former member, Melissa Bean, is attempting to regain the 8th District seat she lost in 2010; she has a good chance of being successful.

The open 4th District campaign is controversial in that retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) didn’t announce his retirement decision, thus allowing his congressional chief of staff, Patty Garcia, to declare at the end of the filing period; therefore, she is running unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Garcia, no relation to the Congressman, will likely face major competition in the general election, however.

Two prominent Democrats, including Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez, are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independent candidates. The Illinois ballot requirements for non-major party candidates are substantial, but the potential candidates have until May 26 to qualify.