Tag Archives: North Carolina

A Look at the House

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 26, 2026

The prevailing wisdom suggests that Democrats will capture control of the US House of Representatives next week, potentially securing a majority large enough to push their conference into the high 230-seat range.

National indicators provide the primary basis for this expectation. Democrats hold substantial leads in generic congressional ballot surveys, which ask voters whether they would support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the House if the election were held today. At the same time, President Trump’s job approval ratings remain at or near their lowest levels, further contributing to the Democrats’ favorable political position.

Countering these trends, however, are polling numbers from individual House races, where Republican candidates are running within the margin of error in most of the nation’s highly competitive contests. While it is true that significantly more Republican-held seats are in play this year than is typically the case, Democrats must still win in districts where they have not prevailed, in some instances, for decades. Moreover, Republican candidates have often outperformed their polling numbers in recent election cycles.

Although Democrats appear well-positioned to achieve majority status on Nov. 3, the size of that majority remains speculative and undetermined.

The key battlegrounds are the states where multiple House seats are highly competitive. In this column, we will examine those states to determine whether a clearer picture of the emerging House map can be drawn.

Arizona

Two Arizona seats are considered true toss-ups: the open 1st District and Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Tucson) 6th District. Polling has been sparse in both races, resulting in fewer publicly available surveys than is typical for contests of such importance.

Because Democratic pollsters generally release more polling data than their Republican counterparts, the lack of such survey releases in these districts may suggest that neither race is trending as favorably for their party as broader national indicators would imply. Consequently, Arizona’s key House contests could buck the national Democratic trend.

California

Democrats drew a new congressional map intended to produce as many as five additional seats for their party, and they may well achieve that objective. Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) appears to have the best chance of surviving under the new lines, though even his path to re-election remains uncertain.

California’s lengthy ballot counting process could also delay a full understanding of the results, as state law allows up to 36 days for ballots to be counted and the election certified.

Colorado

Arguably, three Republican-held seats are in play in Colorado. The district most likely to flip is Rep. Gabe Evans’ (R-Ft. Lupton) 8th District, a seat intentionally drawn to be highly competitive and reflective of the state’s broader political mood. By design, elections there are expected to be close, but the current political environment suggests that state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) may hold a slight advantage.

The other two potentially competitive districts are Rep. Jeff Hurd’s (R-Gunnison) 3rd District and Rep. Jeff Crank’s (R-Colorado Springs) 5th District, both of which are more Republican-leaning than the 8th. Recent attention has focused more heavily on Rep. Crank’s race than on Rep. Hurd’s, a dynamic that could indicate the latter is in a somewhat stronger position despite representing the less Republican of the two districts.

Should Democrats capture both the 3rd and 5th Districts in addition to the 8th, their House majority could approach the 240-seat mark.

Florida

Republicans are counting on gaining four seats from Florida’s redistricting map, but current trends suggest they may be fortunate to secure three. Their strategy hinges on unseating three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), and Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Of the three, Rep. Moskowitz presently appears to have the strongest chance of political survival.

If Republicans hope to limit the size of what appears likely to be a new Democratic House majority, capturing all four of their targeted Florida seats is essential.

Iowa

Republicans currently hold all four of Iowa’s congressional districts, and three are considered competitive this election cycle.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) appears to be the most vulnerable incumbent after winning re-election to a third term in 2024 by just 799 votes. The open 2nd District should remain in Republican hands, but polling suggests a close contest. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/Des Moines) also faces another highly competitive race in a perennial swing district, and this year is no exception.

Should Democrats sweep Iowa’s three contested districts, they would take a significant step toward building a House majority that approaches the 240-seat mark.

Michigan

Three Republican-held seats are competitive in Michigan, including two currently represented by GOP incumbents.

Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and freshman Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) both face formidable challengers, though Huizenga benefits from representing the more Republican-friendly district. The politically marginal open 10th District remains a true toss-up and could break either way, although Republicans may hold an advantage with Mike Bouchard Jr., whose profile is enhanced by his father, longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

North Carolina

Districts 1 and 11 are the key battlegrounds in North Carolina’s congressional elections. Despite the 1st District being redrawn to favor Republicans, Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) has mounted a strong campaign and could defy the district’s partisan lean.

The western 11th District has also emerged as a major target. With Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrawing from the race because of scandal and censure, Democrats have been presented with an opportunity to capture a seat that would ordinarily be expected to remain in Republican hands.

The GOP likely needs to win both districts if they hope to blunt the momentum of what could become a growing Democratic “blue wave.”

Pennsylvania

Four Republican-held seats are at the center of Pennsylvania’s congressional battlefield. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown), Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), and veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) all face formidable challengers in what are expected to be highly competitive races.

For Democrats to build a House majority that reaches the high 230s, they will likely need to capture more than one of these four Republican-held seats.

Texas

The Texas redistricting plan was expected to deliver five additional seats to Republicans, but shifting political trends in South Texas suggest those gains may ultimately fall short of that target. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) appears positioned for re-election, while Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) could retain a district that was specifically drawn to favor a Republican candidate.

Adding to the GOP’s challenges, two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) faces a difficult re-election battle against former Grammy Award-winning Tejano performer Bobby Pulido (D) and has trailed in several polls. If Democrats can limit Republican gains in Texas to a net increase of just two or three seats, they will remain on a viable path toward building a House majority in the high 230s.

Virginia

Two more Republican incumbents find themselves on the political hot seat in Virginia, even after the state Supreme Court nullified the referendum that would have produced a congressional map making their districts almost impossible to hold. Nevertheless, Reps. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) and Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) remain locked in highly competitive, toss-up races.

Ultimately, the outcome in states featuring multiple competitive House districts will go a long way toward determining not only whether Democrats secure a majority, but also the size of that majority.

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.

Carolina’s Critical Campaigns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.

NC-Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race; he dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.

Since the March 3 primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.

North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.

Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

NC-1

North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.

In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48 percent. Despite Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.

The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by 10-plus points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.

A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (Sept. 8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43 percent, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (June 22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41 percent spread.

The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.

NC-11

The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.

Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised more than $2 million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.

NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Ager leads just 47-44 percent over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.

Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.

NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.

North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.

NC-11: Controversy Abounds

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 31, 2026

US House

North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager (D)

Proving that he is the “Mountain Democrat” that he claims to be, North Carolina’s 11th District congressional nominee Jamie Ager recently signed the Promise to America’s organizational statement, which emphasizes six core tenets: “We are capitalist, not socialist; We want safety, not lawlessness; We are responsible, not reckless; We believe government should solve problems, not create them; We are mainstream, not extreme; We are proud, not ashamed of America.”

His decision to do so, however, has caused political turbulence. While the Promise to America message resonates in much of western North Carolina, it has drawn criticism in Asheville – the district’s largest city and the center of regional liberal politics.

North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District borders South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee and sits along the Great Smoky Mountain range, which is part of the Appalachian Mountains that stretch from Canada to Alabama.

The 11th CD encompasses all or parts of 13 counties, with Buncombe County – home to Asheville – comprising more than one‑third of the district’s population. Buncombe is twice as large as the next biggest county, Henderson. Its importance is clear: while Edwards won re‑election districtwide with 57 percent in 2024, he received only 36 percent in Buncombe County.

Ager must therefore take seriously any base problems he faces in what must be his strongest area because the rest of the district is ruby red.

Under the state’s new congressional map, NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 districts designed to elect a Republican. Dave’s Redistricting App rates the seat at 51.9R – 45.8D, and President Trump carried it in 2024 with a 54.2 – 44.7 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

Historically, these numbers suggest that a Republican congressional incumbent should win re-election in the mid to high 50s, which two‑term Rep. Chuck Edwards (R‑Flat Rock/ Asheville) has done. This year, however, the district will see a more intense campaign.

Ager’s challenges, however, may pale in comparison to Rep. Edwards’ recent difficulties. The Congressman is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for alleged improper relationships with young female staffers, including providing two with personalized handguns, taking one on a trip to Las Vegas, and giving personal gifts to several other female staff members. In reference to the pink and blue handgun gifts, Rep. Edwards, a licensed firearms dealer before entering Congress, claims they were for personal protection.

The Congressman and his wife own six McDonald’s restaurants, all of which are being sold. Mrs. Edwards has said the couple wants to devote more time to public service, though the sale may also reflect the widening fundraising gap between Edwards and Ager. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure report, the Democrat holds $2.2 million in his campaign account compared to the incumbent’s $468,000.

Controversy surrounding the district’s congressional incumbent is nothing new for this western North Carolina constituency. Edwards, then a state Senator, came to Congress in the 2022 election by defeating scandal-plagued freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn. He defeated Rep. Cawthorn by 1,384 votes in garnering 33.4 percent of the vote over Cawthorn and six other Republican candidates. North Carolina is a runoff state, but the threshold is only 30 percent, so heading to a secondary election in the Tar Heel State is a rare occurrence.

NC‑11 will be a major Democratic target this year. While Ager’s Promise to America stance may create friction within the party’s far‑left base, it is likely to be received positively throughout most of the district. Conversely, Edwards’ ethics troubles will not be. Expect to hear much more about this race when political prime time begins immediately after Labor Day.

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Results: Gonzales Out in Texas; Rep. Owens to Retire in Utah; Allam Concedes to Foushee in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 6, 2026

Texas

Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio)

• Now admitting to having an affair with his late staff member who committed suicide, thus recanting his previous claims that he had not engaged in adultery, three-term v (R-San Antonio) last night conceded the 23rd District Republican runoff election to gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera. The Congressman also committed to serving the balance of the present term.

He is now the second House incumbent denied renomination in the 2026 election cycle. The other is Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble), who lost outright on Tuesday night.

Many Republicans were calling upon Gonzales to concede the runoff but muted their personal criticism. With such a small majority, the Republican leadership could not afford for the Congressman to resign.

Therefore, last night’s decision and announcement is seemingly the GOP leadership’s best-case scenario. Now they can openly support Herrera in order to hold the seat in the general election, while keeping Gonzales in the House to serve the balance of the term.

The entire Gonzales scenario presented a difficult political tightrope for Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team to walk, but it appears they have made the best of a difficult and complex circumstance.

• While the 18th CD Democratic primary has yet to yield final results, it is clear that paired Reps. Al Green (D-Houston) and Christian Menefee (D-Houston) will advance to a runoff election. Though former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards had withdrawn from the race, her name still appeared on Tuesday’s ballot and attracted about eight percent of the vote. Her total is enough to deny a majority to Rep. Menefee who has a slight lead. This means the race will be decided in a new election on May 26.

• The candidates vying to replace retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock) in Texas’ 19th CD will advance into a runoff election but only one of the participants is currently known. Agribusinessman Tom Sell has secured the first position.

Separated by just 193 votes in second and third place are Gov. Abbott supported Abraham Enriquez and businessman Matt Smith, with only provisional and overseas ballots remaining to count. One of the latter two will advance into the runoff once the final vote tabulations are published.

• In the new open 32nd District, businessman Jace Yarbrough, who enjoys support from both President Trump and Governor Greg Abbott, is knocking on the door of 50%, but may fall just short. Therefore, second place finisher Ryan Binkley, the 2024 long shot presidential candidate who trails Yarbrough by approximately 30 percentage points, can either force the runoff or concede.

• Because of voting issues in Dallas County, some ballots remain uncounted in the region’s 33rd Congressional District Democratic primary, but it is clear that former Congressman Colin Allred, who leads the primary by 11 percentage points, and freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) will advance to a runoff election.

• In the Houston-anchored open 38th District, businessman Jon Bonck is another contender close to, but not at, the majority support level required to secure nomination. Like in District 32, it will be up to a trailing second-place finisher, likely businesswoman Shelly deZevallos, to decide if she will force a runoff or concedes.

In all Texas races, the runoffs are scheduled for May 26.

Utah

Due to an unfavorable redistricting court decision, one Utah Republican congressional seat has been collapsed in favor of drawing a Democratic seat in Salt Lake City.

With all the courts now backing the initial judicial decision, three-term Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), who will turn 75 years old before the election, announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election. His decision saves Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) from being paired in a single district.

North Carolina

Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has conceded to Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill) in the state’s close 4th Congressional District Democratic primary. It appeared that Rep. Foushee’s small 1,202-vote lead over Allam would hold because only provisional and overseas ballots remain. Clearly, Commissioner Allam and her campaign strategists agreed with such an analysis.

Now that the primary is over, Rep. Foushee becomes a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

First Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Voting occurred in the first three primary states yesterday, Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas. A number of races were decided last night and several are heading to runoffs. Some primary winners are already preparing for tough general election campaigns, while others are celebrating victories tantamount to winning a November electoral contest.

Texas

A huge primary night was held in the Lone Star State, and much more will be written about these races in the days and weeks to come.

In the all-important US Senate race, as expected, Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff election. Though votes remain outstanding, a runoff has clearly been projected. Somewhat surprising to many political observers, Sen. Cornyn ran in first place all evening, and carries a one-point margin over AG Paxton from last night’s tabulations. Both will now advance into the late May runoff election by virtue of both scoring in the low 40s percentile range.

For the Democrats, late last night state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) was declared the victor over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) by just about 160,000 votes with ballots still to count. The Republican runoff winner will now face Talarico in the November election in what promises to be perhaps the most competitive Texas Senate race we will have seen this century.

A total of 20 US House races in Texas saw significant primary action. Below is a quick recap:

Incumbents Losing or Trailing

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) went down to a crushing defeat at the hands of state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) even though the Congressman held a huge financial advantage. The vote tally isn’t yet final, but the margin at this writing is a whopping 57-40 percent in the challenger’s favor. Toth will be a heavy favorite to hold the seat in the general election.

Two other House members trail and could lose their seats. Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) is 11 percentage points behind former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred (D), but many ballots remain outstanding because of alleged voting irregularities in Dallas County and a delay in closing the polling places. It is possible that Allred could still win the nomination or be forced into a runoff with Rep. Johnson.

Veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston), who many election analysts predicted to lose, may not. He is locked in a tight battle that still could go either way. Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston) leads by just 654 votes, but with almost one-third of the ballots still uncounted. Additionally, both men are in the high 40s percentile, meaning neither has reached the majority threshold. Therefore, both could still advance to a May 26 runoff election.

Scandal-tainted Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) trails 2024 candidate Brandon Herrera, but both are only in the low 40s percentile range. Therefore, we can expect the two men being forced into another runoff. Two years ago, Rep. Gonzales was renominated over Herrera by only a 354-vote margin in the runoff election.

Outright Winners

The following candidates were declared outright winners last night in contested races and will advance to the general election as their party’s nominee:

In District 8, former America First Policy Institute attorney Jessica Steinmann romped to an easy 68 percent victory in the open Republican primary, which has likely punched her ticket into Congress. The 8th CD is solidly Republican.

In the 10th CD, Republican Chris Gober, who ran the Super PAC operation for Elon Musk, appears to have won the party nomination outright, though all ballots have not yet been tabulated. Assuming he has won the nomination, he will replace retiring Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Austin) after winning the general election.

Turning to the San Antonio-anchored 21st District, retired Major League Baseball player Mark Teixeira recorded a 61 percent victory against 11 opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Austin), who has advanced into an Attorney General’s race runoff against state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R-Galveston).

Looking at South Texas District 28, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) landed a 58 percent victory and will now defend his seat in November against Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina who easily won the Republican nomination with almost 75 percent of the party vote.

Also, on the Democratic side, Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Houston) turned back a primary challenge from former state Rep. and ex-Houston City Councilman Jarvis Johnson with a 58 percent total.

In the seat that Rep. Crockett risked to run for the Senate, prominent Dallas mega church pastor Frederick Haynes easily won the Democratic nomination with 74 percent of the vote. This primary win punches his ticket to Washington in the fall.

Facing nine Republican primary opponents, veteran Rep. John Carter (R-Round Rock) won renomination for a 13th term with just under 60 percent of the vote.

In the Brownsville-anchored 34th District, attorney Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores and six other Republican opponents to claim the party nomination with about a 57 percent vote total. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) was also renominated last night but with a disappointing 62.7 percent total. Expect a tough general election to occur in a district that became more Republican under the new redistricting map.

Two more Republicans, Jace Yarbrough in open District 32 and Jon Bonck in open District 38 are knocking on the door of securing majority support. Both will be prohibitive favorites in the general election if they can secure majority support from last night’s primary.

Run-offs

Texas races where no candidate received majority support, thus necessitating a May 26 runoff election, will occur in new open District 9 (Alexandra Mealer vs. state Rep. Briscoe Cain), open District 19 (agribusinessman Tom Sell and an opponent to be decided in a close battle for second place), and open CD 35 (State Rep. John Lujan-R) and businessman Chris De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen).

Much will be written about these races to recap the primary and cover the runoff elections, but the most extraordinary occurrence last night was the Texas Democrats likely exceeding Republican turnout for the first time in decades.

North Carolina

As expected, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each easily clinched their respective party nominations and will advance to what promises to be one of the premier national US Senate races. Sen. Thom Tillis (R) chose not to seek a third term.

Perhaps as a harbinger of things to come in the general election, Democratic primary turnout was significantly higher than Republicans. In fact, Cooper received over 140,000 more votes than the aggregate GOP total.

In a contest that was predicted to finish close, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/ Chapel Hill) is in a race that is still undecided, though she has a 1,202-vote lead with a small number of outstanding votes. Her Democratic primary challenge was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam who received outside support estimated in the seven-figure range.

In the competitive 1st District, 2024 congressional nominee and ex-Pentagon official Laurie Buckhout won a close Republican primary, outlasting Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck by a five percent margin. Buckhout now advances to the general election against Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in a much more favorable Republican district than where the two battled two years ago. In the 2024 election, Davis was re-elected with less than a two-point re-election margin. NC-1 now becomes a top national Republican conversion opportunity.

Arkansas

Few incumbents were opposed in the Natural State primary. Rep. French Hill (R-Little Rock) was the only federal official who even had minor opposition. Rep. Hill was easily renominated with 77 percent of the vote. He will face Chris Jones, the 2022 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in this year’s general election.

All in all, a very exciting 2026 first primary night.