On Friday and over the weekend, six more uncalled US House campaigns officially ended. Democrats took five of the group, with the majority GOP getting a winner in central Washington State’s double Republican battle.
MD-6: As was expected when freshman Rep. John Delaney (D) moved ahead of challenger Dan Bongino (R) by about 2,000 votes with only around 5,000 remaining to count, the end quickly followed. Bongino conceded to Delaney picking up 48 percent of the aggregate vote as compared to the incumbent’s 50 percent, a margin of 2,269 votes. Considering this is a strong Democratic seat, Bongino’s close performance is a surprise and only Delaney’s strong margin from Montgomery County saved him from a shocking defeat.
CA-9: The first of three California races to be finalized is not a particular surprise, as Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) was finally projected the winner in his San Joaquin County district. This race had never been on the political board, but challenger Tony Amador (R) made it a battle. McNerney, with still votes remaining to be counted, is likely to win a final 52% of the vote.
CA-17: The double-Democrat battle between Rep. Mike Honda and former Obama Administration official and high tech attorney Ro Khanna is also over. The victory goes to Rep. Honda who wins an Continue reading >
Money is flying in House races right now, and the respective party and outside organization spending is indicative about how the races are unfolding. Republicans are on the offensive in some obscure districts; Democrats, with the exception of their operations against Reps. Lee Terry (R-NE-2), Steve Southerland (R-FL-2), and Michael Grimm (R-NY-11), are generally retreating to protect endangered incumbents.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) just reported adding money to some existing media buys. They are increasing their presence for Reps. Brad Schneider (D-IL-10), Bill Enyart (D-IL-12), Rick Nolan (D-MN-8), Dan Maffei (D-NY-24), and Nick Rahall (D-WV-3). This clearly suggests Republican challengers in each of those districts are legitimate upset contenders.
The following is a list of the latest action in what can be described as emerging races. All of the predictions in these campaigns originally favored the incumbent or the incumbent party in an open seat situation.
• AR-4: Rep. Tom Cotton’s (R) open seat is now yielding a competitive contest between Republican state Rep. Bruce Westerman and Democrat former Federal Emergency Management Agency director James Lee Witt. Westerman had the early lead, but a new Hendrix College Talk Business poll (Oct. 15-16; 410 likely AR-4 voters) shows the Republican advantage dwindling to 44-42 percent. Continue reading >
Now in the first full week of October, it is time to peruse the aggregate House political situation. The Republicans appear to be a cinch to retain control of the body, but several individual seats could well change hands. Below is a quick description of those with the strongest potential of switching parties.
Democratic Seats Headed to Republicans
• NC-7 (Rep. Mike McIntyre-D): The southeast North Carolina seat is now no contest with Rep. McIntyre retiring. The closest election district of 2012 now becomes an easy ride for Republican former state Sen. David Rouzer.
• UT-4 (Rep. Jim Matheson-D): This was the site of another close 2012 race, but veteran Rep. Matheson’s retirement should leave this south Salt Lake City seat in the hands of Republican Mia Love. Her victory percentage might be a bit lower against attorney Doug Owens (D) than many today project, but Love is almost assuredly headed to Congress.
Democratic Seats Trending Republican
• NY-21 (Rep. Bill Owens-D): It was always believed that when the Republicans and Conservatives could get behind the same candidate, the seat would return to the Continue reading >
California’s 31st Congressional District, the country’s most Democratic congressional district represented by a Republican, lies in the heart of California’s Inland Empire and it’s an open seat once more. In 2012, President Obama captured 57 percent of the vote here against Republican Mitt Romney. The party registration breaks down 41-34-21 percent, Democratic, Republican, and Declined-to-State (Independent), respectively, according to the pre-primary official totals. Hispanics comprise 42 percent of the total population.
Two years ago, a statistical oddity occurred in the state’s first regular jungle primary. Due to an abnormally low Democratic turnout and because they had the more established candidates, Republicans were able to qualify two candidates for the general election, thus taking a seat right out of the Democrats’ hands. With incumbent Rep. Gary Miller (R) retiring this year, the 31st District again appears primed, at least on paper, for a Democratic conversion. The primary is set for June 3.
A new poll, however, suggests that at least one Republican will advance to the general election, making the Democrats’ victory Continue reading >
Yesterday, Rep. Gary Miller (R-CA-31) announced that he would retire at the end of this Congress and not seek re-election in his San Bernardino County US House district. The 31st in California is the most Democratic CD in the country to elect a Republican congressman. Against national GOP nominee Mitt Romney, Pres. Obama scored 57.2 percent of the vote here, providing a clear example of its partisan leanings.
The now open CA-31 becomes the best Democratic conversion opportunity in the country. With registration in their favor and a weak Republican presence post-Miller, chances are strong of a double-Democrat general election, meaning a sure Democratic gain.
Here’s why: The 2012 congressional result was quirky in the fact that this decidedly Democratic district sent two Republicans to the general election under California’s new Continue reading >