Category Archives: Governor

Yesterday’s Primary Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Voters in six states, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, cast their nomination ballots yesterday and what follows are the key results and analysis.

The night was particularly bad for two US House members attempting to run statewide. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) fell to investment company executive Zach Lahn in the open Republican gubernatorial primary, and South Dakota at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell), after leading in early polling, failed to even qualify for the gubernatorial runoff election in his state.

California

The Governor and Los Angeles Mayor’s contests dominated the pre-election coverage. With only about half the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the huge 60-person field. Closely behind is former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 22-year congressional veteran Xavier Becerra.

When all the votes are counted, which could be weeks from now, it appears that both men will advance into the general election.

Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is in third place, but it appears his effort to reach the general election will fail. The same for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), who for a time, was in competition for one of the runoff slots. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) will also be eliminated.

In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) will be forced to a runoff election. It appears she will secure less than 40 percent of the vote when all ballots are counted. Advancing to the November runoff appears to be upstart Republican Spencer Pratt. His vote percentage likely places him far enough ahead of LA City Councilwoman Nithya Raman to secure the second slot.

Though Mayor Bass performed poorly for an incumbent and is clearly unpopular since almost 64 percent of the people chose another candidate, Los Angeles’ strong Democratic voting history suggests that Pratt will have a very difficult time unseating her in the general election. Still, a Republican finishing a credible second in a LA Mayor’s race is notable.

There is a new US House member in the California delegation. Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the 1st District special election outright, and he will immediately be sworn into office to finish the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R) term.

Gallagher, though finishing first in the new 1st District regular primary, which is much different than the seat in which he clinched the special election, will be considered at least a slight underdog in the general against state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) even though the latter man fell short of expectations in yesterday’s voting.

Because only half the votes are counted, it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the House races unfolded. It does appear, however, that veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) will advance to the November general election with another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang. This is a race to watch in November.

Other Democratic members falling below the 50 percent mark in the jungle primary will still do well in the general election because they are drawing Republican opponents and not other Democrats.

For the Republicans, in the southern California pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra), both will advance to the general election. Calvert, however, has a large lead heading into the general election campaign.

The other general election contest to watch is in San Diego where County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) clinched the first runoff position and will face San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D), who was a distant second. This open seat race, though designed to elect a Democrat, will be very close in November.

Finally, in the race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco congressional district, as expected, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Franciso) and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) will both advance to the general election.

Iowa

As mentioned above, the Republican gubernatorial winner was technology company executive Zach Lahn. He will face State Auditor Rob Sand (D), who was unopposed in the Democratic primary. This will be a very competitive general election pairing.

As expected, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) will square off in the US Senate general election. Democrats need to make this a competitive race to have a chance at taking the Senate majority. Rep. Hinson begins the general election campaign as the favorite.

Three of the state’s four congressional races will be competitive. The open 2nd District also went as predicted. Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell easily won the Republican primary as did state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) in the Democratic primary.

The 1st District will see the third version of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Cynthia Bohannan (D) opposing each other. The Congresswoman performed much better in yesterday’s Republican primary (over 70 percent of the vote) as compared to her 2024 standing.

Montana

As expected, former US Attorney Scott Alme easily won the Republican US Senate primary. He will be favored to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R).

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is retiring and his chosen replacement, radio talk show host Aaron Flint, won the 1st District Republican primary. It will likely be some time before the Democratic nominee is officially elected. The initial vote totals show a tight finish between smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag and former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse.

New Jersey

The key race on the New Jersey ballot is the 7th Congressional District, and the Democratic primary went as expected. The easy winner against a crowded field is businesswoman and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett. She will now challenge two-term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who has been absent from the House for over two months related to an undisclosed heath situation. This race is a key national Democratic conversion opportunity.

In the open 12th District, where the Democratic primary winner was a lock to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), physician Adam Hamawy claimed the party nomination. He is now the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

New Mexico

Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland is the landslide Democratic gubernatorial primary winner here, defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman to secure the party nomination. She becomes a heavy favorite to win the open November race against new Republican nominee Gregg Hull, the Rio Rancho Mayor.

In the competitive 2nd District, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) will challenge two-term Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces).

South Dakota

The South Dakota Governor’s race was the second to see a businessman defeat established political figures. Businessman Toby Doeden advances to a July 28 Republican runoff likely against Gov. Larry Rhoden, who is on the ballot seeking a full term in his own right after succeeding Kristi Noem when she resigned to accept a position in the Trump Administration. Congressman Dusty Johnson (D-Mitchell) is close behind in third position but will not likely receive enough late votes to overtake the Governor for second position.

In the state’s lone House race, multi-term Attorney General Marty Jackley, as expected, was a landslide Republican primary winner. He will go onto capture the general election in November and enter the new Congress at the beginning of January.

Primary Preview: NJ, NM, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 1 2026

Our third preview piece ahead of tomorrow’s primaries examines the contests in New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Earlier, we reviewed the full slate of races in California, Iowa, and Montana. A total of 15 primaries will occur this June.

New Jersey

The Garden State features just one top‑tier competitive general‑election contest: the 7th Congressional District, where two‑term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R‑Westfield), who has been absent from Congress for two months due to an unexplained health issue, is poised to face a strong Democratic challenger. The district only slightly favors Republicans; analysts at the Dave’s Redistricting App estimate a 50.9R–46.7D partisan lean.

The primary elections include a Republican Senate contest and 10 contested congressional primaries. As noted earlier, however, only one of these nomination battles is expected to become a truly competitive general election race.

Four Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging Sen. Cory Booker (D), but the GOP primary is merely a secondary storyline. Sen. Booker enters the general election as a strongly positioned incumbent in a state that has consistently favored Democratic candidates.

The first notable primary is in District 2, where four Democrats are competing for the chance to challenge four‑term Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R‑Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The Congressman is now seeking his third election as a Republican after initially winning the seat as a Democrat. Tomorrow’s Democratic victor will likely attract some initial national consideration to determine if Rep. Van Drew has general election vulnerability.

In the 7th District, four Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Rep. Kean. Businesswoman and Air National Guard officer Rebecca Bennett has led in recent polling and is well‑positioned to secure the nomination. Because New Jersey uses a plurality‑vote primary system, finishing first tomorrow is all that matters.

In the northern New Jersey 8th District, two‑term Rep. Rob Menendez (D‑Jersey City) again faces a Democratic primary challenger, though the opposition is not as formidable as the field he confronted in 2024. Rep. Menendez is widely viewed as the clear favorite over former Jersey City Board of Education president Mussab Ali.

In District 11, special‑election winner Analilia Mejia (D‑Glen Ridge/Morristown) faces only minimal opposition in the regular Democratic primary and is not expected to encounter a competitive general election challenge. The seat became open earlier this year after then‑incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) was elected Governor in the November 2025 election.

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D‑Ewing Township/Trenton) is not seeking a seventh term, creating an open seat and prompting a crowded 13‑candidate Democratic primary. The eventual nominee will win the strongly Democratic district in November.

Only two of the 12th District contenders hold elected office: state Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds‑Jackson (D‑Trenton) and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson. With such a large field, the winning candidate will likely secure only a modest share of the vote, but New Jersey’s plurality primary system means that finishing first is all that matters, regardless of the overall percentage.

New Mexico

With Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D) facing only minimal Democratic primary opposition and no Republican challenger, statewide political attention is centered almost entirely on the open Governor’s race.

Because Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, the open Democratic primary is central to determining her successor. The race has narrowed to a two‑candidate contest between former US Interior Secretary and ex‑ Albuquerque Congresswoman Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. While Haaland enters the primary with notable advantages, political observers still expect a relatively competitive finish.

Three Republicans are competing for the party’s gubernatorial nomination, with Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and former New Mexico Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez viewed as the leading contenders. Whoever emerges from the primary is expected to face a difficult campaign path in the general election, given the state’s Democratic voting history.

Only one of New Mexico’s congressional races is expected to be competitive in the general election: the southern 2nd District. Here, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D‑Las Cruces) is seeking a third term in what is shaping up to be a closely watched contest.

Retired police officer Greg Cunningham is unopposed for the Republican nomination, setting up a potentially high‑profile national race. While Vasquez enters the cycle with some clear advantages, the district has a recent history of competitive outcomes, making it a race to watch this fall.

South Dakota

The open Republican gubernatorial campaign is shaping up to be a tight contest. Gov. Larry Rhoden assumed the state’s top office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment. At‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) immediately announced a primary challenge to Gov. Rhoden. Businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) are also running, and each has a credible base of support.

South Dakota is a runoff state, and there is a real possibility that none of the four candidates will reach the 35 percent threshold needed to clinch the Republican nomination outright. If a runoff is required, it will be held on June 28.

Separate recent polls have individually placed three of the four candidates in first place, leaving tomorrow’s outcome uncertain. The eventual Republican nominee, however, is strongly positioned to win the Governorship in November, given the state’s partisan landscape.

In the open at‑large House race, multi‑term Attorney General Marty Jackley is strongly positioned to win the Republican primary and advance to November as the party’s nominee. Given the state’s voting history, he enters the general election cycle as the prohibitive favorite in the contest for South Dakota’s lone US House seat.

Iowa and Montana Primary Previews

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 29, 20206

Today, we continue our series of June 2nd primary previews. We begin with a look at the very busy Iowa primary followed with Montana developments. On Monday, we wrap up with the New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary previews.

Iowa

The Iowa primary features several tightly contested races. The Hawkeye State is poised to be one of the most influential battlegrounds in shaping the national landscape of the 2026 midterm cycle. Iowa will see several major offices open in 2026: US Senate, Governor, and two US House seats. All are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Governor

Democrats are enthusiastic about their gubernatorial nominee. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently holding statewide office, is expected to be well funded as the party attempts to reclaim the governorship; a post Republicans have held since 2011.

As Lieutenant Governor, Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to the state’s top office in 2017 following Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) resignation to become US Ambassador to China in the first Trump Administration. She was then elected Governor in her own right in 2018 and 2022. Earlier this year, she announced that she would not seek a third full term.

Democratic leaders and strategists believe not only can Sand win the general election, but they feel he can also drive turnout to help sweep other Democrats into office.

Sand’s likely general‑election opponent is 4th District Rep. Randy Feenstra (R–Hull/Sioux City). First elected in 2020 after defeating then‑Rep. Steve King in the Republican primary, Rep. Feenstra has since faced minimal opposition in his re‑election campaigns and has consistently performed well as a candidate. The general election is expected to be highly competitive.

Senate

When Sen. Joni Ernst (R) announced she would not seek a third Senate term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) immediately entered the race. President Trump, Gov. Reynolds, and the broader Republican establishment quickly rallied behind her, making her the prohibitive favorite for the party’s nomination.

Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Iowa City) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Sen. Wahls opened with an early lead, but with Democratic leaders now lining up almost uniformly behind Turek, the party electorate – and recent polling – has clearly shifted in his direction. This sets the stage for what is expected to be a strongly contested Hinson-Turek general election.

House

All four of Iowa’s US House seats feature notable activity this cycle. In the 1st District, a second rematch between Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) appears likely. Both face only minor opposition in Tuesday’s primary and are expected to advance to the general election.

The Republican primary will be worth watching, however. In 2024, Rep. Miller‑Meeks recorded only 56 percent of the GOP primary vote against advertising executive David Pautsch, who ran a no‑spending campaign. Pautsch is back for another attempt, and this time he is making a slightly more concerted effort to compete.

Rep. Miller‑Meeks’ vote share will be an important number to watch. A result below 65 percent would likely signal further general‑election vulnerability for the incumbent. In 2024, she defeated Bohannan by just 799 votes – the third‑closest US House race in the country.

Rep. Hinson’s open 2nd District features primaries in both parties, though each has a clear favorite heading into Tuesday. For Republicans, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell is the strong frontrunner over state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Linn County). On the Democratic side, state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) is expected to win her party’s nomination.

The general election is expected to be competitive, but with a partisan lean favoring Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App: 51.4R – 45.3D), Mitchell would enter November with a measurable advantage.

The Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the most competitive congressional seat in the state (DRA partisan lean: 49.8R–47.0D). Both nominations are already set, as each party’s primary is uncontested. Rep. Zach Nunn (R–Bondurant) will be defending the seat for the second time after unseating an incumbent in 2022.

Democrats will field state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) as their nominee. The general election is expected to be highly competitive, and the race effectively becomes a national contest beginning Wednesday.

The western 4th District is open because Rep. Feenstra is running for Governor. The Republican nominee will be Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan who is surprisingly unopposed for the GOP nomination in this strongly Republican congressional district.

Democrats have three candidates vying for the IA-4 party nomination. The frontrunner is former state Rep. Dave Dawson, but he will be a decided general election underdog against McGowan.

Montana

The Treasure State was expected to have a quiet general election with all federal incumbents seeking re‑election. Just before the candidate filing period closed, however, the landscape changed dramatically.

Senate

Just minutes before the March 4 candidate filing deadline expired, Sen. Steve Daines (R) – who had filed for re‑election earlier in the month – abruptly withdrew from the race. Accompanying him to the Secretary of State’s office was former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R), who then filed to run for the Senate.

The Daines hand‑off appears to have worked, as only minor candidates will appear on the ballot against Alme in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Five Democrats filed for the seat, with former state Rep. Reilly Neill emerging as the strongest contender from that field.

The most competitive Senate opponent for Alme, however, isn’t a Democrat. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent, is likely the strongest non‑Republican contender. The presence of a Democratic nominee, though, creates a more favorable landscape for Alme. If the race becomes highly competitive, he could prevail with a simple plurality by consolidating Republican support while the anti‑GOP vote split between two candidates.

House

Before Sen. Daines withdrew and effectively selected his preferred successor, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) had already announced that he would not seek re‑election, doing so just days before the filing deadline. He simultaneously endorsed his chosen successor, radio talk‑show host Aaron Flint (R).

In this case, enough time remained for additional candidates to file. Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Senator and past congressional candidate Al Olszewski both quickly filed to compete in the Republican primary.

The Democrats have assembled a notably credible field, featuring 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, Montana Firefighters Union chief of staff Matt Rains, well‑known Smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag, and education consultant Russell Cleveland as contenders for the party’s nomination.

With a credible Democratic nominee and a narrowly divided district (DRA partisan lean: 50.7R–46.9D), western Montana is poised for a hard‑fought general election contest.

In the eastern 2nd District, freshman Rep. Troy Downing (R-Helena) is unopposed for re-election. The Congressman will also be a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a district that President Trump carried with a commanding 63.2 – 33.6 percent margin in 2024.

California Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 28, 2026

Today, our state reviews of the upcoming June 2 primary elections begin. Voters in six states will finish casting their ballots on Tuesday, and we begin the analysis series with the California qualifying election.

In the Golden State, all candidates are on the same initial June election ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentages attained, advance to the general election.

Holding partisan primaries are the states of Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tomorrow, we look at the Iowa and Montana nomination elections, and Monday we conclude with New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Governor

The open California Governor’s race has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning. With 60 candidates on the ballot, it appeared for a time that Republicans had a chance to clinch the two general election ballot positions because the dominant Democratic vote appeared to be split among so many candidates. Such, however, is no longer the case because Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) has fallen off the pace.

The most recent polling suggests that former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the favorite to capture the first general election ballot position, while the second position looks to be a toss up between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and billionaire Tom Steyer (D).

The party leadership began to coalesce around Becerra after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) was forced out of the race, but they have failed to establish him as the clear leader or second-place candidate. Steyer, spending what could be as much as $200 million of his own money on the campaign, is a viable contender.

Whichever Democrat captures second position will automatically become the favorite to win the general election in heavily Democratic California. The only scenario where a Republican could win a statewide office here is if two Republicans would clinch the pair of general election ballot positions.

CA-1

The 1st District election is very complicated. In fact, there are two 1st Districts and two elections on June 2. The first election comes in the former 1st District and is a special vote to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) for the balance of the current term.

The second election is the regular jungle primary in a reconfigured Democratic 1st District. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored in the special election. If he receives majority support, he will take the seat immediately and serve until the end of the current Congress.

In the regular primary, state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) is favored to finish first and Gallagher, second. Both will advance to the general election where McGuire will be favored in a district that he drew himself as the then-President of the California Senate.

CA-3 & 6

Redistricting has caused Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Kevin Kiley (NPP-Rocklin) to trade districts. Rep. Bera will now be favored for re-election in District 3, while Rep. Kiley, now running under the No Party Preference label as opposed to Republican, will attempt to win re-election in new District 6.

Both seats are now Democratic under the new redistricting map, so Rep. Kiley becomes a decided underdog to a Democrat who will likely finish first, probably former state Sen. Richard Pan.

CA-7

The Sacramento-anchored 7th District features veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D) and Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D). This is one of the races around the country where a younger Democrat is challenging an elderly incumbent. Both women are expected to advance into the general election for a double-Democratic runoff.

Rep. Matsui was elected in a March 2005 special election after her husband, Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. The Congressman was serving his 14th term in the House when he died suddenly on New Year’s Day in 2005. Together, the Matsui’s have held the congressional seat consecutively since 1979.

CA-11

The battle to succeed former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) is likely to yield a double-Democratic runoff. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) is expected to secure the first general election ballot position.

Earlier, it appeared that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) initial campaign manager, Saikat Chakrabarti (D), was in position to secure second place, but a Pelosi endorsement of San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) has helped propel her into second position according to the most recent polling data.

Irrespective of which of the three clinch the two general election positions, we will see a double-Democrat November election.

CA-13

Freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) and former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) are expected to advance into the general election in a revamped 13th District. The seat is slightly more Democratic but will be competitive in November.

CA-14

State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) is expected to succeed resigned Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore). A special election to fill the balance of the term will be held on June 16. Sen. Wahab is expected to secure majority support to win the contest outright. Tuesday’s primary will send her and possibly another Democrat into the regular general election. Sen. Wahab faces eight opponents in the regular election.

CA-22

The 22nd District is the most Democratic seat in the nation that sends a Republican, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford), to the US House. Ironically, the 22nd is slightly more Republican after redistricting.

Rep. Valadao will secure one of the general election ballot positions on Tuesday and face either state Assemblywoman and physician Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) or Visalia School Board Trustee and college professor Randy Villegas (D).

CA-26

Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village) is retiring, and state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) is her likely successor. Four Republicans and three Democrats are vying for the second general election position.

CA-38

The new 38th District is an open seat created in the new redistricting plan. The winner will be Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) who is a lock to place first in both Tuesday’s qualifying election and in November.

CA-40

The new 40th CD is one of just four Republican seats designed in the new California redistricting map. Two Republican incumbents are competing for the seat, Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). A third viable candidate is contemporary art gallery owner Esther Kim-Varet (D). Four other Democrats and a No Party Preference candidate are also on the ballot.

One of the two incumbents will eventually win the seat, but it is a question as to whether both Reps. Calvert and Kim advance to the general election. Rep. Calvert represents more of the new district and leads in the latest polling, but Rep. Kim has more financial resources.

CA-45

Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) is on the ballot for a second term. He was an upset winner against then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in 2024. When the former Congresswoman declined to seek a rematch, five Republicans, including three local Orange County officials, jumped into the race. Expect this to be a competitive general election irrespective of which Republican secures the second ballot position on Tuesday.

CA-48

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring, and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is the likely first place finisher in a district that only slightly tips to the Democrats under the new redistricting plan.

Nine Democrats are competing for the seat, and it is possible that the vote could be split to the point of allowing Republican businessman Kevin O’Neill to slip into second position. If one of the Democrats advances against Supervisor Desmond, the result will be a competitive general election.

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), probably the President’s top Republican US House nemesis, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. The vote split was 55-45 percent in Gallrein’s favor and capped a victory week for the President.

Trump’s endorsed candidates defeated two of his Republican targets in Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Massie, and the Republicans recorded several redistricting legislative and judicial victories that improves the party’s position of holding their small US House majority.

Alabama

As expected, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries last night. The result precludes a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Tuberville recorded a 60-40 percent victory.

In the Senate race, also as expected, Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. It may take several days to determine the second place finisher.

For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16.

All US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties held open contests to choose their 2026 gubernatorial nominees. In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16 second round.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56 percent against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other US candidate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Dooley edged Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16 runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.

Turning to the Georgia House races, Jim Kingston, son of former Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52 percent victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Kingston of election in November.

In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67 percent against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.

The race to replace retiring 11th District Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. Finishing third in an upset result is Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore who was favored as a runoff participant. The June 16 Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.

In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56 percent of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Clark.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 64 percent victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November.

Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 60 percent of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee.

Kentucky

In addition to the Massie defeat, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican Senate nomination with a solid 60 percent victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.

For the Democrats, former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36 percent victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

In Rep. Barr’s open 6th District, former state Senator and 2019 Lieutenant Governor nominee Ralph Alverado, who left the state to become Tennessee’s State Health Commissioner before returning, won the Republican nomination with 56 percent over four opponents. He will face Democratic winner Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran. This general election campaign could turn competitive, though Alvarado begins the campaign as the November favorite.

The four other congressional incumbents seeking renomination all won easily.

Oregon

All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.

The electorates in three competitive Republican House districts chose their Democratic nominees last night, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination last night. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49 percent victory two years ago scored a 67 percent victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas meaning the November rematch is set.

Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sent a Republican to the US House.

In the 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44 percent of the vote. Rabb will succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) in the general election.

The Ohio Outlook

To see an interactive view of this 2026 Ohio Congressional Districts map, click on the image above or go to Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Ohio Elections

The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday, and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.

The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.

It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000-plus more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.

We can expect this year’s race to be expensive, and it will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.

The open Governor’s race, featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s COVID response, so expect her decision to advocate and implement a full shutdown during the pandemic to become a campaign issue.

In the US House campaigns in Ohio, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who won Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary, was also the nominee in 2024; in that ’24 contest, Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.

The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44 percent margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.

The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red-hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.

In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46 percent victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53 percent victory total.

Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net 10-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.

Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote against two opponents.

But the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.

Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.

Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49 percent victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Democrat Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.

The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.

In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.

It remains to be seen if Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.

Finally, in what is clearly a long-shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.

The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44 percent in the last election.

Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to fund other races.

Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

Virginians Vote; Opposite Polls

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Virginia

Today marks the final voting day for the Virginia redistricting referendum. The voters are deciding whether to change the current Old Dominion congressional map from a 6 Democrat/5 Republican split into a gerrymandered plan designed to elect 10 Democrats and one Republican. The measure will likely pass.

The Republicans surprisingly haven’t put up much of a fight considering a four-seat loss in Virginia would substantially decrease the chances of holding their slim five-seat House majority. Democrats, on the other hand, have dominated the airwaves with their ads supporting a “yes” vote on the referendum (see video at top).

The polling suggests the outcome will be a bit closer than the advertising medium suggests (State Navigate; Aril 10-13; 707 likely Virginia voters; 51-45 percent Yes; Washington Post/George Mason University; March 26-31; 1,101 likely Virginia voters; 52-47 percent Yes). Spending on this referendum is completely lopsided with an approximate expenditure ratio of 11:1 in the Democrats’ favor.

Republicans are hopeful that the state Supreme Court, which is hearing an appeal regarding a lower court judge’s earlier ruling that the entire referendum process is invalid because the legislature violated their own rules in qualifying the special election vote, will uphold the previous decision and declare the referendum invalid. The justices have yet to render a final decision but allowed the referendum vote to continue.

It is difficult to see a panel of judges overturning a vote of the people assuming the “yes” position is victorious. Therefore, Democrats will likely be successful in getting the designed 10 Virginia seats. Doing so will go a long way toward achieving the party goal of flipping the Republicans’ slim House majority.

Opposite Polls

The polling industry has absorbed some attacks regarding its cumulative accuracy rate over the past few years and recent polls from Alabama and Michigan underscore that polling is not an exact science.

Part of the problem is how survey research is used. Polling should be thought of as a guide monitoring candidate momentum swings rather than an instrument that tallies exact ballot test numbers.

Sometimes we see situations where polls conducted of the same race during relatively the same time period can produce very different ballot test results.

A good example of this is found in recent surveys from the Alabama Senate and Michigan Governor’s campaigns, both in Republican primaries.

In the Michigan Governor’s contest, we see two recent polls yielding virtually opposite ballot test results. During the April 11-13 period, Emerson College released their poll projecting businessman Perry Johnson to be at parity with Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills), in fact leading by a slim 21 to 20 percent margin. This is the first such poll that finds Rep. Jones, also a two-time statewide Republican nominee, trailing in the 2026 gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, the OnMessage polling firm, surveying for the James campaign, sees their candidate in the top position with a big lead. According to OnMessage, James has a wide 41 to 18 percent lead over Johnson. While the Emerson College poll was conducted during the April 11-13 period, the OnMessage survey was in the field during the stretch between April 15-18.

It is hard to fathom, however, that the race could have changed to such a great degree in this short time period. Therefore, one of these polls, and probably the Emerson College survey, has badly missed the mark.

In the Alabama Senate Republican primary, we see a similar situation. During the April 11-13 period, Peak Insights released a survey showing Congressman Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) holding a 34-16-12 percent lead over Alabama attorney general Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson.

Yet, during almost the identical time frame, April 11-14 in this case, the Tarrance Group also surveyed the Republican electorate and found a much closer result with Moore recording only a slight 28-27-24 percent margin over Marshall and Hudson, respectively.

So again, we see two polls commissioned almost simultaneously and sampling within the same macro campaign universe but arriving at very different ballot test results. These results underscore that polling is not exact and that anomalies do frequently happen.

The Alabama and Michigan examples, though relatively extreme, show us that polling again should be looked at simply as a way to judge candidates’ momentum as opposed to precisely pinpointing where they stand in relation to a projected election outcome.

Steyer Declares War

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 16, 2026

Governor

California businessman and investor Tom Steyer / Facebook photo

Just two days after Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) dropped out of the California Governor’s race and then announced his resignation from the US House over sexual assault accusations, Democratic gubernatorial and billionaire businessman and investor Tom Steyer, who could become the race’s leading candidate, made an unorthodox and controversial campaign move.

Steyer, who has already spent over $90 million of his personal wealth to promote his gubernatorial campaign has a chance to become the top Democratic candidate and qualify for the general election in the state’s top two primary system.

Party leaders are concerned that the primary vote would be split among so many Democratic candidates (23) that two Republicans, namely former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could capture first and second place. Such a result would freeze any Democratic candidates from advancing to the general election.

The shutout fear also explains why party leaders were beginning to coalesce around Swalwell, believing he had the best chance of securing a general election qualifying position. Now, without him in the race, the party leaders need to focus on another candidate to avoid the shutout.

Tom Steyer is a former presidential candidate who began as an Independent but later became a Democrat. He is a controversial figure, and one not likely to commit his complete allegiance to party leaders as readily as would many of the other Democratic contenders.

The Steyer new policy objective declares war on ICE and advocates the following principles in his released plan:

Abolish ICE – Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob.”
Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.”
Give the California Attorney General the power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership.
Have taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens.
Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal government’s failure.

Launching such a controversial policy statement, and one that is extreme even by California standards, may prove the exact wrong strategy to employ just when he could now move to the top of the massive 62-person candidate field.

It is important to remember that all voters are eligible to participate in the June 2 qualifying election, not just Democratic Party members as would be the case in a closed primary; going to extremes on the immigration issue, then, even to the point of basically declaring civil war on the federal government, may not be a successful proposition.

While California is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and a party candidate’s victory in the 2026 general election is already viewed as a foregone conclusion by most political observers, a Democrat finalist’s margin in some statewide campaigns is not insurmountable.

Most Republican candidates attract about 40 percent of the general election vote, and most Democratic winners secure their statewide positions in the high 50s.

Therefore, while the Democratic base is certainly anti-ICE, it may be a stretch for Steyer to assume that the majority of even California Democratic voters want to jail law enforcement officers, bring back deported aliens, ignore the US Supreme Court, and virtually break the state away from the United States.

The Steyer immigration policy document now brings yet another point of controversy into the California Governor’s campaign and may open the door for another Democrat to emerge as the party’s top candidate. Such a Democratic candidate might better attract traditional party support and gain the necessary momentum to overtake Steyer and secure a general election position.

Or, these latest turn of events in the California Governor’s campaign could lend more credence to the idea that a pair of Republicans, Hilton the Fox News host, or Bianco the law enforcement officer, could actually secure both general election slots and shut out the entire Democratic field for the general election.

Klobuchar Announces for Governor

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar

As expected, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar has now officially entered the open Minnesota gubernatorial campaign with her announcement late last week.

Previously, she filed a gubernatorial campaign committee as a prelude to her formal declaration. Just re-elected to the Senate in 2024, Klobuchar does not have to risk her Senate seat to run for Governor.

It appears the four-term Senator and former Hennepin County Attorney is a lock for the Democratic nomination and will likely become the official party nominee at the state Democratic endorsing convention to be scheduled well before Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election. She will also be favored in the general election, but it remains to be seen what type of effort the Republicans will launch now that the race has drastically changed since incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) surprisingly ended his quest for a third term.

In all likelihood, Sen. Klobuchar will win the Governor’s race and then appoint her own successor to the US Senate. If this happens, the appointed Senator will have the opportunity of running to fill the balance of the term in 2028 and would be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Klobuchar is the fourth Senator this year running for Governor in their respective state. Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have also launched gubernatorial campaigns.

Tuberville is the only in-cycle Senator, however, as he risks his seat to run for Governor. His move looks to pay political dividends. Candidate filing has closed in Alabama, and he faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Only insurance agent Ken McFeeters and civic center manager Will Santivasci are competing against him for the party nomination in the May 19 primary.

After being nominated, Sen. Tuberville is likely to square off against former US Sen. Doug Jones who is in equally strong position to win the Democratic nomination. The general election will be a rematch of the 2020 Senate race, a campaign that Tuberville won easily, 60.1 – 39.7 percent.

The Senate election to replace Tuberville will likely be decided in the Republican nomination process. The principal contenders are Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, and former Trump White House aide Morgan Murphy. Early polling favors AG Marshall, but President Trump has now endorsed Rep. Moore.

The Colorado race has produced at least one surprise. It appears that Sen. Bennet will have a fight on his hands in the Democratic primary against term-limited Attorney General Phil Weiser. According to the latest state financial disclosure report, AG Weiser has raised more in the way of campaign funds than Sen. Bennet. The numbers find Weiser accumulating $4.6 million in 2025 versus $3.5 million for his major opponent. Weiser also reported a $3.4 to $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage.

There has only been one published poll of the Democratic race, which was released last June from the Global Strategy Group, a well-known Democratic professional polling firm. The ballot test found Sen. Bennet opening with a healthy 53-22 percent lead.

The winner of the state’s June 30 primary election will become a prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).

The Tennessee gubernatorial campaign is also likely to be decided in the party primary, but this time on the Republican side. Sen. Blackburn’s principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Blackburn is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination and the general election.

Sen. Blackburn has dominated the early polls. The most recent release came in late October from Targoz Market Research and projected Sen. Blackburn with a 58-9 percent landslide advantage over Rep. Rose. Large margins have also been present in the three other publicly released polls earlier in the year.

Assuming all four Senators win their race, three of them will likely choose their own successor unless the outgoing Governor makes the Senate appointment as he is leaving office.

Rumors suggest that in two of the three cases the outgoing Governor, himself, Polis in Colorado and Walz in Minnesota, could become the appointed Senator. Therefore, the four Senators running for Governor will also produce post-election political drama just as 2027 begins.

Klobuchar Files Gov. Committee;
Minnesota Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

It appears Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) is moving closer to entering the Minnesota open Governor’s race, and her official announcement could come this week.

Toward the end of last week, Sen. Klobuchar filed a state campaign committee for the purpose of preparing a gubernatorial bid. The act of filing, in and of itself, does not mean an individual is an official candidate, but the prevailing Minnesota political reports suggest that launching her candidacy is imminent.

Since Gov. Tim Walz (D) had announced his intention to seek a third term but then withdrew at the height of publicity over the public assistance program fraud scandal, the potential Democratic candidate field found itself virtually frozen because of Sen. Klobuchar’s likely candidacy.

It is apparent that a Klobuchar entry would virtually seal the party’s gubernatorial nomination so Republican candidate speculation comes to the forefront. Former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Scott Jensen is the most likely GOP prospect, and he has confirmed his interest in a potential run.

Other possible Republican candidates are state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring), state Rep. Peggy Bennett (R-Albert Lea), state Rep. Kristin Robbins (R-Maple Grove), ex-St. Cloud City Councilman Jeff Johnson, agribusiness company CEO Patrick Knight, and several minor candidates. Regardless of who wins the GOP nomination, Sen. Klobuchar will be rated a heavy favorite to win the governorship. If successful, she would then appoint her own successor to the Senate.

The state’s other Senate seat hosts an open race, too, because incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring. Here, we see a competitive two-way Democratic primary developing between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

While Rep. Craig has a financial advantage, and we will soon see the updated financial totals on the Federal Election Commission 2025 year-end report, Lt. Gov. Flanagan has the early polling lead.

Poll

A just released Public Policy Polling survey (Jan. 16-17; 976 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) finds Flanagan leading Rep. Craig, 40-28 percent.

The follow-up questions show that the Minnesota Democratic base is strongly liberal. When asked whether the respondent would be more or less likely to vote for Rep. Craig if they knew she voted to support the Laken Riley Act “that allows the deportation and detention of undocumented immigrants suspected of a nonviolent crime (PPP wording),” 59 percent responded less likely.

Additionally, 71 percent of those surveyed say they would be less likely to vote for Rep. Craig when knowing that she supported a congressional resolution “that included language expressing gratitude to ICE.”

On the secondary ballot test question, asked after reading the aforementioned responses, the Flanagan lead increases to a heightened 54-22 percent. Therefore, it appears Rep. Craig begins the election year as the underdog.

The Congresswoman’s difficulty factor will likely grow after the Minnesota state endorsing convention, held well before the Aug. 11 primary. Lt. Gov. Flanagan will be favored to win the official party endorsement from the attending convention delegates.

Typically, under Minnesota political tradition, most candidates who lose the endorsement vote end their campaign. It is becoming apparent, however, that Rep. Craig, should she lose, will force a primary campaign.

The state of Minnesota has attracted a great deal of national news attention in the past few weeks, and it appears the domain’s 2026 elections will draw even more.