Category Archives: Governor

Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

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By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

Republican‑led states will have incentive to adjust their maps to limit Democratic gains to a single cycle, while Democratic‑led states will seek to make their newly elected members more secure heading into 2028.

Of the 36 gubernatorial races, 15 appear competitive or moderately competitive. In those states, the 2026 outcomes could materially influence the 2027 redistricting picture. Redistricting will not occur in two of the competitive gubernatorial states, Alaska and Vermont, because both have at-large congressional districts.

Arizona

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is in a competitive race but continues to hold polling leads over Rep. Andy Biggs (R‑Gilbert), thus positioning her as the favorite for re‑election based on current data. Republicans maintain narrow majorities in both legislative chambers, but if Democrats were to gain control in November, movement on redistricting could follow.

Arizona was one of the first states to adopt an independent citizens’ redistricting commission, yet the 2026 cycle has shown that several states have found ways to maneuver around their commissions in order to implement new maps.

Florida

Polling shows a close Governor’s race in early October, but pollsters have badly missed the Florida elections for the past four cycles. Republicans have big majorities in both legislative chambers, so it is unlikely that the state will be a factor in 2027 redistricting irrespective of the gubernatorial outcome.

Georgia

Georgia was among the states that initially considered redrawing its maps after the Callais decision, but legislative leaders ultimately chose not to proceed. They later announced plans to call a post‑election special session, yet no such scheduling action has been taken.

If Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms were to win the Governor’s race, legislative leaders would likely move quickly to convene and advance a map designed to add two Republican seats while Gov. Brian Kemp (R) remains in office.

Iowa

Democrat Rob Sand is well positioned to win the governorship, but it remains unlikely that redistricting will occur in a state that has effectively ceded the map‑drawing process to a legislative algorithm. Republican majorities in both legislative chambers are strong, so even with a Sand victory, it is improbable that we will see a redistricting effort regardless of how the competitive congressional elections unfold.

Kansas

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term‑limited this year, giving Republicans a strong opportunity to reclaim the governorship. In most polling, state Senate President Ty Masterson (R‑El Dorado) holds an advantage over state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D‑Olathe). With Republicans maintaining solid majorities in both legislative chambers, a Masterson victory would likely place redistricting on the table for 2027. The result could be a one‑seat Republican gain.

Michigan

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is poised to succeed term‑limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), placing the focus squarely on the legislature. Democrats hold a narrow majority in the state Senate, while Republicans control the House. If the latter chamber flips, Democrats could attempt a redistricting move.

Michigan has an independent redistricting commission, but as noted earlier, several states have successfully maneuvered around their citizens’ panels in 2026. Should Democrats capture the state House majority, Michigan will become a state to watch in the redistricting arena.

Nebraska

Gov. Jim Pillen (R) faces competition in this cycle but is still expected to prevail. Republicans were just one vote short of advancing a redistricting plan in 2026, so any changes in the unicameral legislature could determine whether a new map is implemented. With the open 2nd District likely to elect a Democrat next month, Republicans would have added partisan incentive to pursue a redraw in 2027.

Nevada

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is in a tight re‑election campaign, and if Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford were to unseat him, redistricting could quickly emerge as an issue in the new legislative session. Democrats appear positioned to retain their majorities in both legislative chambers.

Should they also capture the state’s lone Republican congressional district, the Reno‑anchored 2nd District, a Democratic legislature and Governor would likely move to redraw the map in order to make that seat more secure for their new Representative. Whether redistricting occurs in 2027 will largely hinge on the gubernatorial outcome.

New York

The Empire State will be particularly interesting to watch next year on the redistricting front. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is favored to win re‑election, and the legislature will remain solidly Democratic. Although New York has a redistricting commission, Democrats believe they can draw additional Democratic‑leaning districts.

Their challenge, however, is the state’s significant population loss concentrated entirely in New York City. According to mid‑decade Census Bureau estimates, New York has lost more than 200,000 residents, all from NYC, while the rest of the state has experienced modest growth. As a result, efforts to increase Democratic seats when the party’s anchor population base is likely to lose representation in the next apportionment may prove more difficult than a cursory overview suggests.

Ohio

The Buckeye State conducts redistricting through a bipartisan commission composed of seven elected officials. Because the panel adopted a new map with unanimous support earlier this year, that plan can remain in place for the rest of the decade. As a result, it is unlikely the Commission will reopen the contentious process in 2027.

Oregon

Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is unexpectedly locked in a very tight re‑election race, but redistricting is unlikely to occur regardless of the outcome. The Democratic majority has already maximized its advantage under the current congressional map, leaving little room for improvement. As a result, a 2027 redistricting effort does not appear likely.

Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is likely to win a fourth term, though by a closer‑than‑expected margin. Republicans will retain control of the state Senate, but their House majority may narrow. Because the congressional map was redrawn this year, it is unlikely that redistricting will make a return appearance in 2027.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the gubernatorial and legislative elections will directly determine whether redistricting occurs. The state Supreme Court declined to act on a case that could have triggered a redraw this year, so a Democratic sweep in November is the most plausible path for redistricting to move to the forefront in 2027.

The Governor’s race between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑Minocqua) remains tight, and Republicans currently hold tentative majorities in both legislative chambers. Should Democrats gain control and pursue a redraw, they could potentially add two congressional seats.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

Gov. McKee Loses in Rhode Island;
More Missouri Redistricting Chaos

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 10, 2026

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Dan McKee

As polling had been forecasting for months, Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Dan McKee last night became the first Ocean State chief executive in 30 years to lose renomination. He fell to former CVS corporation executive Helena Foulkes by a landslide 62-38 percent margin in the state’s primary election.

Gov. McKee is the 14th incumbent and first Governor to lose renomination in the current election cycle. A total of 11 House members along with two Senators failed to win their party primary. The defeats are bipartisan as eight Democrats and six Republicans lost to intra-party opponents.

Gov. McKee had trailed badly throughout the year. Many observers point to the prolonged construction on Providence’s Washington Bridge, a major Interstate I-195 artery linking the capital city to East Providence. With more than 60 percent of Rhode Island’s population living in Providence County, the closure of the westbound lanes at the end of 2023 – engineers warned of structural concerns – became a persistent political liability. The Governor’s office estimates the project still won’t be completed until 2028.

Lt. Gov. Dan McKee ascended to the governorship in 2021 when then‑Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary in the Biden Administration. The following year, McKee narrowly won a three‑way Democratic primary, defeating Foulkes and then-Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea with a 33-30-26 percent split.

Four years later, the Governor couldn’t increase his support base beyond his initial victory percentage. His political standing deteriorated to the point that even the Rhode Island Democratic Party declined to endorse its own incumbent.

Foulkes, the niece of former Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd (D), will now have an easy run in the general election in a state where Democrats dominate. The Republican gubernatorial primary has still not been called as we see a close race between trade association executive Aaron Guckian and magazine publisher Elaine Pelino.

In the Senate race, five‑term incumbent Jack Reed scored another landslide renomination victory, taking 77 percent against two under‑funded Democratic challengers. The Senator is well positioned to win a sixth term in November.

Both of Rhode Island’s US House members, Reps. Gabe Amo (D‑Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D‑Cranston), ran unopposed for renomination and are heavy favorites in the general election.

The 2026 primary season concludes next Tuesday in Delaware.

Missouri

Just when it appeared that Missouri’s congressional redistricting saga had finally reached its conclusion – after US Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh denied the state’s appeal of a Missouri Supreme Court ruling disqualifying the new Republican map – another chapter is developing.

Justice Kavanaugh, who administers emergency matters for the 8th Circuit, ruled that the ballot initiative to approve or overturn the congressional map may appear on the November ballot. Under Missouri procedure, any qualified initiative that could alter a proposed law suspends that law until voters decide its fate; therefore, the 2026 congressional map is suspended.

Complicating matters further, US District Judge Stephen Clark issued a separate ruling barring the state from reverting to the 2022 map.

His decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by Rep. Bob Onder (R-Augusta) and state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City), who argued that voters participating in the Aug. 4 primary under the new map would be disenfranchised if district lines were changed afterward. Judge Clark agreed with the plaintiffs’ argument and blocked the state from reinstating the 2022 boundaries.

Onder represents Missouri’s 3rd District, and Brattin is the Republican nominee in the 5th District – the seat Republicans expect to flip under the 2026 map. If the 2022 map were to be restored, the 5th District would likely revert to veteran Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City).

Election officials now face conflicting directives. The Missouri Supreme Court insists the 2022 map must be used, while the federal ruling states that only the 2026 map is permissible.

The organization People Not Politicians, which spearheaded the ballot initiative, immediately appealed to the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, but the appellate court has declined to act on the motion. As a result, the dispute is likely to return to Justice Kavanaugh.

The conflict must be resolved before Sept. 19, the deadline for Missouri to deliver ballots to overseas voters under federal law.

Markey Wins Big; Neal, Lynch Tighter

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 2, 2026

Last night’s Massachusetts primary resulted in each incumbent prevailing, but not all were landslide victories.

Senate

Polling accurately anticipated the outcome of the Bay State’s Senate primary, as veteran incumbent Ed Markey easily defeated Rep. Seth Moulton (D‑Salem) by a 65-35 percent margin. Though not all 351 municipalities had reported by late Tuesday night, returns from roughly 280 communities showed Moulton carrying only nine, with six of them coming within his 6th Congressional District.

Rep. Moulton’s decision to run for the Senate had been questioned by many political observers, since Sen. Markey did not appear vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. He demonstrated that strength six years ago when he defeated then‑Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, 55-45 percent, overcoming a member of the Kennedy family in their home state and within their own party.

The six‑term Congressman attempted to frame the race around age and longevity. Sen. Markey is 80 years old and has held elective office continuously since first winning a seat in the Massachusetts House of Representatives back in 1972. In the end, the Moulton attack line failed to gain traction.

Moulton will leave Congress when his term ends in January. Sen. Markey now heads into the general election with a prohibitive advantage over attorney John Deaton, who was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Governor

Incumbent Gov. Maura Healey was unopposed in yesterday’s Democratic primary, and, as expected, former healthcare company executive Mike Minogue won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman and retired Marine Corps veteran Brian Shortsleeve by a commanding 76-24 percent margin.

Minogue will be a credible Republican contender against Gov. Healey, but his prospects remain weak in a state that is quintessentially Democratic. Turnout underscores the challenge: roughly 275,000 voters participated in the Republican primary, compared with more than 900,000 on the Democratic side. While Gov. Healey enters November as a heavy favorite, Minogue is positioned to offer voters a viable alternative.

House

While several members of Massachusetts’ all‑Democratic US House delegation faced primary challengers, only one race appeared genuinely competitive heading into election day. In the end, a second contest proved unexpectedly close.

The surprise came in the 1st District, where veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D‑Springfield) defeated educator Jeromie Whalen by a narrower‑than‑expected 54-46 percent margin, remarkably tight given the campaign’s extreme spending disparity. Through the pre‑primary reporting period ending Aug. 12, Rep. Neal held a $3 million to $330,000 expenditure advantage.

The challenger did not run as a Democratic Socialist but cast Congressman Neal as an entrenched establishment incumbent and claimed he is “one of the top recipients of corporate money.” This, of course, would be illegal, since direct corporate contributions to candidate committees are not allowed.

Whalen did not distinguish the difference between a corporate contribution and a corporate political action committee comprised of private sector employees voluntarily participating in the political process.

Given the number of incumbent House members in both parties who have lost renomination this year, Rep. Neal’s below‑average margin may reflect a broader frustration among various electorates toward long‑serving federal incumbents.

In the 4th District, three‑term Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D‑Newton) easily dispatched research scientist Jason Poulos, once viewed as a potentially credible challenger. Rep. Auchincloss secured renomination with a 72-28 percent victory.

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D‑Revere) also cruised, winning 74 percent of the vote against two opponents. She advances to the November general election as a prohibitive favorite in her 5th District, which carries a 68.3D – 29.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

In the open 6th District, as polling suggested, former Andover Selectman and ex‑Biden Administration official Dan Koh won the Democratic nomination with a 41-30-12-9 percent result over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D‑Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito. Koh previously lost a 2018 3rd District primary to current Rep. Lori Trahan (D‑Westford) by just 145 votes.

Finally, in the Boston‑anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D‑South Boston) defeated former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath, 57-43 percent, in a race that fundraising and polling had suggested could be competitive.

Rep. Lynch lost the Boston municipality to Roath but performed strongly in the district’s communities that lie south of the state’s capital city. The Congressman is again a prohibitive favorite in the November general election to secure a 14th term.

Next week, voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island will choose their nominees, and Delaware will close the 2026 primary season on Sept. 15.

The Democrats’ Independent Ploy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.

The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.

Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lieutenant Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the US Senate.

In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (Aug. 11-13; 500 likely Idaho voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18 percent lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (Aug. 16-19; 608 likely Idaho voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32 percent.

Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (July 28-30; 1,213 likely Idaho general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21 percent.

Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.

Montana

Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2 primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Alme.

Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.

In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.

The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Montana general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46 percent, Bodnar follows at 30 percent and Bankhead at 15 percent. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46 percent each.

The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22 percent advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.

Nebraska

Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.

Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59 percent of the vote.

South Dakota

The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.

A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (Aug. 13–17; 500 likely South Dakota general election voters) showing Bengs pulling into a 44-44 percent tie with Sen. Rounds.

It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.

Graham Wins South Carolina Runoff; GA-13 Seat Filled

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

South Carolina

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won last night’s South Carolina special Republican US Senate runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) with 52.5 percent of the vote.

Several notable dynamics emerged from the result. First, turnout – projected at roughly 370,000 votes – exceeded the Aug. 11 special primary by about 35,000 voters. It is unusual for a runoff to draw more participation than the associated primary, thus underscoring the atypical circumstances surrounding the 2026 South Carolina Senate race.

Second, the vote split sharply along geographic lines. The state’s northern neck backed Rep. Norman, while the remainder of South Carolina voted uniformly for Sen. Graham. She carried the major population centers of the Charleston metropolitan area where she averaged approximately 62 percent of the vote, and the Columbia metro region with an average percentage of 58.

The pivotal area, however, was Myrtle Beach and the northeastern 7th Congressional District. This is where President Trump held a rally for Sen. Graham on Saturday and the district that Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) represents. Fry finished third in the Senate primary but endorsed Graham in the runoff. In Horry County, the region’s population anchor, Sen. Graham received 73 percent of the vote and posted similar margins in the surrounding counties.

Third, however, is Rep. Norman’s strength, which was concentrated in the northwestern part of the state. He carried his home 5th Congressional District, anchored in Rock Hill, and the counties along the North Carolina border. He also proved victorious in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th CD. More strikingly, Rep. Norman carried the Graham family’s home county of Pickens with 58 percent and much of the 3rd District that Lindsey Graham represented during his US House tenure.

Sen. Darline Graham now advances to the general election, where she will be favored against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won her party’s nomination outright in the regular primary on June 2.

GA-13

The runoff election to fill the late Congressman David Scott’s (D) seat for the remainder of this legislative session was also held last night in Georgia.

With turnout likely to finish below 19,000 voters, former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair defeated the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott, by a 54-46 percent margin. Scott had placed first in the initial special election in late July with 46 percent against four Democratic opponents but was forced into a secondary election because she did not obtain majority support.

Blair takes office immediately but will serve only until the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The regular cycle Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), who won the May primary outright with 56 percent against five opponents, including Blair. She is expected to win the November general election easily in a district with a 68.9D–29.5R partisan lean, according to Dave’s Redistricting App.

Blair carried only one of the district’s counties, but his 70 percent showing in his home county of Gwinnett was enough to secure the districtwide victory. Georgia’s 13th District includes portions of four Atlanta metropolitan counties east of the city.

Oklahoma

Last night’s Republican gubernatorial runoff proved to be a nail‑biter, and while a recount may still be ordered, initial results indicate that former state Budget Director and ex‑state Sen. Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond with 50.3 percent of the vote.

The lone public poll of the race – from Oklahoma‑based CHS & Associates – accurately projected a dead‑heat finish. Mazzei, who earned President Trump’s endorsement, dominated eastern Oklahoma, while AG Drummond won the state’s largest population center, Oklahoma City, with just under 52 percent. Drummond also performed well in the rural western counties.

The two essentially broke even in Tulsa County, the state’s second‑largest population hub, where the Attorney General held a lead of only 268 votes.

Mazzei, who also received the endorsement of term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson (D-Lawton), the state House Minority Leader who won her party’s June primary.

In the Democratic US Senate runoff, nurse and Democratic Socialist N’Kiyla Thomas easily defeated retired attorney and minister Jim Priest. She now faces Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), where she enters the general election as a clear underdog. The winner will succeed appointed Sena. Alan Armstrong (R), who replaced Markwayne Mullin after President Trump appointed him Homeland Security Secretary.

The Alaska Alarm Bell

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Alaska Races

While recent polls projected Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) as slightly trailing former at large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in this year’s US Senate race, the primary vote suggests that something beyond questionable polling may be unfolding in the Last Frontier, which is normally a reliable Republican domain.

Seeing tight early Alaska polling is typical, which is usually a prelude to the Republican candidate pulling ahead in the final weeks to win comfortably. The Aug. 18 primary results, however, indicate that the Senate contest is more favorable for Democrats than other statewide races – an ominous sign for the GOP’s majority prospects.

In last week’s primary, Peltola led with 48.1 percent of the vote compared to Sen. Sullivan’s 42.7 percent, a margin between the two of 7,144 votes. Under Alaska’s top four jungle primary, the four highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation or percentage attained. This means Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. – whom some believe Democrats encouraged to run in order to siphon votes from the incumbent – and the eventual fourth place finisher will join the general election field.

Fourth place remains undecided due to a significant number of uncounted ballots from the outlying areas. Daniel Sullivan Jr. advances with just 2.4 percent of the vote, while Democrat David Leslie (1,502 votes) and Republican Gerald Heikes (1,485 votes) are separated by only 17 votes, each below 1.2 percent. Estimates project that as many as 34,000 ballots may still remain meaning that either Leslie or Heikes can claim the fourth and final general election ballot position.

The third- and fourth-place finishers will largely determine whether the leading general election candidate reaches a majority. If no one surpasses the 50 percent majority threshold, Ranked Choice Voting activates, meaning a redistribution of second and third choice preferences from people who voted for lower tier candidates.

The major warning sign for Sen. Sullivan is how the Senate primary compares to the other statewide contests. Peltola and the other two Democratic candidates combined for 66,183 votes in the Senate race, while the six Republicans amassed an aggregate 63,888.

In the open Governor’s race, Republicans (12 candidates) combined for 67,198 votes, significantly ahead of the Democrats’ 54,790. In the at-large House race featuring freshman Rep. Nick Begich III (R Chugiak), Republicans totaled 64,011 votes; Independents and minor party candidates followed with 45,215, while Democrats drew only 21,185.

More troubling for Sen. Sullivan was his performance across Alaska’s 40 state House districts, the unit the state uses instead of counties to report vote totals. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians estimate that Republicans hold a partisan lean advantage in 25 of the districts compared to the Democrats’ 15. Yet, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 state House districts that typically lean Republican.

Alaska is a state Senate Republicans cannot afford to lose. With what appears to be a highly likely loss in North Carolina, Republicans are already on defense in Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. A devastating loss in Alaska – even if Republicans flip Michigan – could reopen the door to a Democratic majority.

Time remains for Sen. Sullivan and the GOP to improve their standing and, as previously mentioned, Republican candidates usually get a bump in support as election day approaches.

If the incumbent, however, enters November slightly ahead or slightly behind Peltola, the nation may wait weeks to learn which party controls the Senate, as Alaska routinely requires extended time to count late arriving ballots from its vast wilderness areas.

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

New Hampshire’s Sour Mood

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 21, 2026

New Hampshire Electorate

To see an interactive version of this map, go to:
Dave’s Redistricting Map.

As the Sept. 8 New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.

Republicans fare worse than Democrats, likely because the sample includes more Democratic primary voters, but Democratic candidates are not in positive territory either. Almost every tested figure in both parties posts strongly negative approval ratings.

The Iran War is weighing heavily on Republicans: 60 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate while the conflict continues. Democrats face their own drag, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

The St. Anselm online poll, conducted Aug. 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self-identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.

Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

President Trump’s job approval stands at a woeful 37:62. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is barely above water at 50:46. Two Democratic House members, Rep. Chris Pappas (D Manchester), the likely open seat Democratic Senate nominee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D Nashua), were also tested. Rep. Pappas began a downward trend at 44:51, while Goodlander posts a narrow 45:43 positive rating.

The candidates fare even worse. Republican Senate contenders John E. Sununu and Scott Brown register 38:54 and 30:47, respectively. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington, the likely nominee against Gov. Ayotte, is similarly upside down at 26:37.

In the open Senate race with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Pappas leads former Sen. Sununu 48-41 percent and posts a larger 49-37 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Brown. In the GOP primary, Sununu would defeat Brown 54-24 percent.

The open 1st District Democratic primary appears headed for a photo finish. Though the field includes multiple candidates, the race has effectively narrowed to former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Shaheen. The poll shows Sullivan holding a slight 26-24 percent edge.

On the Republican side, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo leads business owner Hollie Noveletsky 30-17 percent. The 1st District is traditionally one of the nation’s most competitive seats, and the short general election window will likely produce a heated contest, though the Democratic nominee begins with at least a modest advantage.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Ayotte leads Warmington 49-38 percent. Turning to the 2nd District congressional campaign, a rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the Congresswoman holds a 50-35 percent advantage.

President Trump has lost New Hampshire in all three of his elections, so his continued decline in the state is unsurprising. More notable is the deterioration in former Sen. Sununu’s standing against Rep. Pappas, given the Sununu family (Gov. John Sununu; Gov. Chris Sununu; US Representative & Senator John E. Sununu) and their long record of New Hampshire electoral success.

A clue to the poll’s ideological tilt appears in the “most important issue” question. In most surveys, the economy and affordability dominate. Here, the top response is elections and protecting democracy – an issue typically emphasized by the most liberal Democratic voters. Its prominence suggests a leftward sample skew.

Even with the skew, the numbers still point toward Democratic advantages in nearly every major New Hampshire race except Governor. Whether Republicans can rebound in the remaining weeks will depend on their ability to reverse perceptions on the economy and affordability – areas where they traditionally perform better, but not in this survey.

An Anti-Incumbency Fervor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 20, 2026

INCUMBENTS

Florida Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who lost his renomination bid on Tuesday, is only one in a long list of incumbents being voted out of office. / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Tuesday’s primary produced another House incumbent defeat and saw a sitting Senator finish behind his leading general election opponent. The question now is whether the unusually high number of incumbent setbacks in both parties foreshadows broader political turbulence in November. A deeper look at the margins suggests the warning signs for incumbents are serious.

With Rep. Cory Mills (R‑FL) losing his renomination bid on Tuesday and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R‑AK) placing well behind former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska’s top‑four jungle primary, the tally of incumbents denied renomination now stands at 13, plus Sen. Sullivan’s failure to finish first. Eleven of the defeats have occurred in House races – seven Democrats and four Republicans – while two Senate Republicans have been denied renomination.

The near‑parity between the parties indicates that these results are not driven by overt partisanship. Instead, they reflect a broader anti‑incumbent, and likely anti- establishment, mood. Voters in both parties appear frustrated with the current governing system.

Democrats are nominating avowed socialists in several districts, while Republican base voters, particularly in Senate contests, are signaling dissatisfaction with incumbents they believe are not enacting enough of the Trump agenda.

The most telling statistic is not the number of incumbents defeated, but the margins by which they lost. These figures should concern any incumbent facing voters in November.

Among the 11 House defeats, Democratic incumbents averaged just 40.1 percent of the vote, while their challengers averaged a commanding 56.3 percent. Republican House incumbents fared only slightly better, averaging 41.7 percent to their challengers’ 52.8 percent. These are not narrow repudiations; they are decisive rejections.

The largest losses occurred on the Democratic side. In Texas, Rep. Al Green (D‑Houston) lost a redistricting‑induced incumbent pairing to newly elected Christian Menefee (D‑Houston) by a lopsided 69.3 – 30.7 percent.

While some attribute the margin to redistricting, most of the new 18th District came from Green’s long‑held 9th District, meaning he should have had the advantage. His strong opposition to President Trump was not the issue; rather, his age – approaching 80 – and 22‑year tenure likely weighed heavily against him.

The second‑largest defeat came in New York’s 10th District, where two‑term 50-year-old Rep. Dan Goldman lost 65.8 – 34.0 percent to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran as a Democratic Socialist. Here, ideology was the driving factor, despite Goldman himself being a staunch liberal even as an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.

On Aug. 9, another veteran Democrat, Connecticut Rep. John Larson – first elected in 1998 and nearing 80 – managed only 32.9 percent against former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and two other challengers.

Republican Senators also lost in landslide proportion. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy failed even to qualify for the runoff, receiving just 24.8 percent of the vote. In Texas, four‑term Sen. John Cornyn mustered only 36.2 percent in a runoff against scandal-tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton. Turning to Alaska, Sen. Sullivan will likely finish with roughly 43 percent against ex-Rep. Peltola, leaving him a great deal of work to do in a short period to change his trajectory for the general election.

While these primary results suggest an ominous environment for incumbents, they do not necessarily point to a partisan wave. Instead, 2026 is producing unusual and potentially revealing electoral outcomes that underscore voter restlessness across the political spectrum.