Tag Archives: Rep. Katie Porter

Michigan Senate Seat a Toss-Up; Cardenas to Retire; A Dead Heat in CA-47; Utah’s Special Election

The EllisInsight will take a break to enjoy the holiday Thursday and will resume regular publishing Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2023

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Toss-Up New Poll — Regular Michigan pollster EPIC-MRA, conducting another survey for the Detroit Free Press newspaper (Nov. 10-16; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) again sees a close US Senate general election. The eventual winner will succeed Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) who is retiring after four terms.

While the presidential ballot test finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden 46-41 percent, and with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley posting an 11-point advantage against the incumbent president, US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) still maintains a small margin over both of her leading Republicans — former Congressman Mike Rogers and retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig. Against each, Slotkin holds a two-point edge, meaning the open Michigan Senate race could soon be rated as a top-tier 2024 campaign.

House

CA-29: Rep. Tony Cardenas to Retire — Six-term California Rep. Tony Cardenas (D-Pacoima/Los Angeles) announced Monday that he will not seek re-election next year. Cardenas becomes the fifth California House member, and third from Los Angeles County, to voluntarily leave the House at the end of the current Congress.

Democrats will have little trouble holding this heavily Hispanic district (Hispanic population: 61.1 percent). The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-29 as D+51, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a whopping 77.6D – 20.4R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 28th safest seat in the Democratic Conference. Immediately upon Rep. Cardenas making his announcement, state Assemblywoman Luz Rivas (D-Arleta) announced that she will run for the newly open seat.

CA-47: Dead Heat General Election Polling — The Global Strategy Group just released the results of a late October internal poll conducted for Democrat Joanna Weiss in California’s open 47th Congressional District. The survey (Oct. 24-30; 500 likely CA-47 general election voters) finds both Weiss, an Orange County attorney, and state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) embroiled in dead heats with former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). Weiss would nip Baugh, 43-42 percent, while the Republican would hold the same edge over Min.

The pollsters tested the respondent’s reaction to Sen. Min being charged with a DWI violation where he registered a blood alcohol level twice the legal amount. A video of the arrest has also been released. The poll finds that 66 percent of the residents are “deeply concerned” about Sen. Min’s legal situation. His action, however, did not stop the California Democratic Party, at their state convention over the past weekend, from officially endorsing Sen. Min in the congressional race.

Baugh was a general election finalist in the 2022 election, losing to incumbent Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 51.7 – 48.3 percent count. With Rep. Porter now running for Senate, this open-seat race will be one of the most important in the country toward determining the next House majority.

UT-2: Special Election — The contest to choose a successor to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington) concluded yesterday. Republican Celeste Maloy, Rep. Stewart’s formal legal counsel, and Democratic state Sen. Kathleen Riebe (D-Cottonwood Heights) were the two main contenders for the seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as R+23 and the Daily Kos Elections site ranks UT-2 as the 81st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Maloy prevailed, securing 58 percent of the vote to Riebe’s 34 percent. There were a handful of other candidates, all of whom registered in the very low single digits. (See results here: The Salt Lake Tribune)

This is a race the Republicans were predicted to win comfortably with a victory percentage in the high 50s. A lesser performance would suggest that translating positive polling into actual votes would continue to be somewhat elusive. That did not happen.

Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive; Republican Candidate in AL-2; Election Day Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

Cal Berkeley Poll: Porter Edges Schiff, Garvey Alive — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Governmental Studies (IGS) released their latest Golden State survey (Oct. 24-30; 6,342 registered California voters; 4,506 likely March 5th California primary voters; online) finds US Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) eclipsing US Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) by a scant 17-16 percent plurality within the large all-party field. While the 17 percent support number represents no gain for Porter when compared to the IGS August study, it does show Schiff losing four percentage points within the same time period. Among self-identified Democratic respondents, the two are tied at 26 percent apiece.

Former professional baseball star Steve Garvey (R), has increased his position now that he is an announced candidate. He finished third in the IGS poll with 10 percent support. The race is close enough that if Garvey can coalesce the GOP support around his candidacy (a total of 21 percent chose a Republican candidate), he could secure a general election ballot position. Among Republican respondents, Garvey receives 27 percent support as compared to 13 and 12 percent for candidates James Bradley and Eric Early.

The Golden State, like Louisiana and Washington, employs an all-party jungle primary system. In California, all candidates are placed on the March 5 ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or primary percentage attained, qualify for the general election. Democrats are favored to hold the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D) seat that appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) now holds, but whether a Republican qualifies for the general election or two Democrats advance from the primary remains to be seen.

House

AL-2: Republicans Field Candidate — Though the new court ordered map has drawn a new Montgomery-Mobile district designed to elect a black Democrat, Republicans now have a candidate to compete in a general election campaign. Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker announced over the weekend that he will file for the new congressional seat. Democrats already see seven announced candidates including two state senators, two state representatives, a Jefferson County Commissioner, and two minor candidates.

The candidate filing deadline is this week, on Nov. 10, so the official candidate field will soon be set. The Alabama statewide partisan primary is March 5. If no one secures majority support in the first election, a secondary runoff vote between the top two finishers will be held on April 2, 2024.

States

Election Day: Kentucky, Mississippi & Virginia — Today is election day around the country, and the contests drawing the most attention are occurring in Kentucky, Mississippi, and Virginia.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) runs for a second term while Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) opposes him. This contest has the potential to be close. The latest poll, from Emerson College (Oct. 30-Nov. 2; 1,000 likely Kentucky voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Cameron taking a lead for the first time in the race, with a 49-48 percent edge. A Cameron victory would be viewed as a major upset.

Another upset is possible in Mississippi. Public Service Commission Brandon Presley (D) is polling close to Gov. Tate Reeves (R) who, like Gov. Beshear in Kentucky, is on the ballot for a second term. The latest available survey comes from Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Governors Association (Oct. 19-20; 601 likely Mississippi voters; live interview & text) and the results find Gov. Reeves’ previous much larger lead dropping to just 46-45 percent. Polling was similar four years ago and Reeves considerably outperformed the polling. It remains to be seen if that pattern repeats itself tomorrow.

Virginia hosts critical state legislative elections with all 140 seats in the General Assembly up for election. Republicans hold a two-vote margin in the House of Delegates; Democrats a two-vote edge in the state Senate. Majorities in both houses are very much up for grabs in redistricted seats where candidates are running for the first time.

Trends coming from these elections, plus the Republican outright victory in Louisiana back in October, could set a precursor trend for the regular 2024 elections.

Polling Projects Electoral College Win for Trump; California Senate Jockeying; New Jerseyans Want Menendez Out; New Candidate in MN-2; GOP Candidate Emerges in NC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 23, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump

Trump’s Numbers: Polling Finds 291 Electoral Votes — According to a series of concurrently conducted independent polls, former President Donald Trump today would lead in enough states to provide him with 291 electoral votes, or 21 more than required to unseat President Joe Biden. Morning Consult, polling for Bloomberg News in various targeted states, projects Trump to leads in Arizona (+4), Georgia (+5), North Carolina (+4), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2).

Last week, Emerson College also found Trump holding an advantage in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Simultaneously, the Marketing Resource Group saw Trump running seven points ahead in Michigan, but the more current Morning Consult/Bloomberg data shows the two candidates tied before the Wolverine State electorate. It is these aforementioned states that will make the difference nationally.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., now running as an Independent candidate, was not tested in the MC/Bloomberg survey series.

Senate

California: Sen. Butler Out; LA Anchorwoman I — Appointed California Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) announced yesterday that she will not run for a full term next year. Despite having more than a year in office after replacing the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), the early March 5 all-party jungle primary allowed her little time to begin competing against Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) and former baseball great Steve Garvey (R), all of whom have a major head start in fundraising and campaign organization.

Los Angeles news anchor Christina Pascucci (D), on the other hand, became a late entry into the crowded US Senate contest, but said she is getting into the race “ … because I have to fight for what I believe is possible for California and for this country.” Pascucci describes herself as a “moderate Democrat.”

New Jersey: Constituents Favor Menendez Resignation — A newly released Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of the Garden State electorate (Aug. 6-14; 813 New Jersey adults; live interview & text) finds that 70 percent of the respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, believe that indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) should resign his seat even without him having a chance to defend himself in court.

So far, Sen. Menendez has been adamant about not resigning over the federal charges that accuse he, his wife, and several associates of engaging in bribery. While the senator is not forced to leave office, polls such as this clearly suggest that he will be a severe underdog in a June Democratic primary race against US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) and potentially several others.

House

MN-2: New Republican Candidate — The GOP leadership is making another attempt to unseat Minnesota US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), but this time it is likely they will have a new standard bearer. Former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab announced his congressional candidacy late last week. In the past two elections, Rep. Craig has defeated military veteran Tyler Kistner but with an average vote percentage of only 49.5 percent. Republicans hope a fresh face will be able to get the extra support to top the three term House incumbent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-2 as D+1, while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks the southeast Minnesota congressional district as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Governor

North Carolina: New Republican Candidate Emerges — Attorney Bill Graham (R), who says he will invest at least $5 million of his own money into his statewide race, announced his candidacy for the state’s open governor’s position. Many in the Republican establishment doubt that the early front runner, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, can win a protracted campaign, which is sure to feature a barrage of attack ads portraying him as an extremist.

The leading Democratic nominee is Attorney General Josh Stein, but he only won the 2020 re-election campaign with 50.1 percent of the vote. Therefore, the Republicans will be competitive in the governor’s race regardless of who they nominate. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Rep. Lee in Trouble in California; Potential AL-7 Challenger; Prominent Dems Decline to Run in NJ; Rep. Cuellar Challenged by Former Staffers

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 29, 2023

Senate

California Rep. Barbara Lee (D), “seriously falling off the pace.”

California: Reps. Schiff & Porter Favored to Advance — The Public Policy Institute of California conducted another of their statewide polls (Aug. 28-Sept. 5; 1,671 California adults; 1,414 California registered voters; online) and sees Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) seriously falling off the pace in the crowded open US Senate field. Though only one candidate even reaches the 20 percent support mark, there is a clear break between the top two poll finishers and the rest of the candidates.

The PPIC survey finds Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading fellow Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) by a 20-15 percent count. Rep. Lee trails with just eight percent support. All other candidates are in low single digits. California features an all-party top two jungle primary format. The pair of top finishers in the March 5 primary regardless of party affiliation and percentage attained will advance into the November general election. This poll suggests we will see an eight month Double-Democrat bruising campaign between Reps. Schiff and Porter.

House

AL-7: Legislative Leader Exploring Cong Run Against Rep. Sewell — State Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton (D-Greensboro), who represents a western Alabama legislative district, announced he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to launch a Democratic primary challenge against seven-term Rep. Terri Sewell (D-Birmingham). Since his district lies in the heart of Rep. Sewell’s seat, the state Senate’s top Democrat said, “I’m not running in the new district. I’m running in Congresswoman Sewell’s … I want the big fish.” The new district will likely be drawn with Montgomery County as the population anchor, which will encompass much of the southeastern side of the state.

Sen. Singleton won’t have much time to weigh his chances. The candidate filing deadline is Nov. 10 for the March 5, 2024, Alabama primary. The new redistricting map will likely be completed late this week or early next.

NJ-7: Prominent Democrats Won’t Run — Democratic leaders are still trying to find the top candidate they believe can unseat freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), but two of their prospects have both declined to run. Former state senator, ex-assemblyman, and previous gubernatorial candidate Ray Lesniak said he will not enter the 7th CD race, as did Dr. Tina Shah, a veteran of both the Obama and Biden Administrations. In the race are Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello, who left the Senate race to run here, former State Department official Jason Blazakis, and political organizer Sue Altman.

The FiveThirtyEight organization rates NJ-7 as R+3. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the 222 member House Republican Conference.

TX-28: Ex-Staffer to Challenge Rep. Cuellar — For the second time, a former staff member of Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Laredo) is challenging him for re-election. Jose Sanz, who left Rep. Cuellar’s staff as his district director earlier in the year, is returning as a Republican candidate to hopefully challenge his ex-boss in the 2024 general election.

Previously, a former office intern has twice opposed the congressman in the Democratic primary. Jessica Cisneros ran two close primary campaigns to Cuellar. In 2022, she forced him into a runoff before losing by just under 300 votes in the secondary election.

Cisneros says she is contemplating a third run. Rep. Cuellar is favored for re-election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the 213 member House Democratic Conference.

New California Senate Entry; Montana’s Sheehy Gets Major Endorsement; Former Nevada Senate Candidate Ready to Announce; Louisiana & North Carolina Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Senate

Former Google executive Lexi Reese

California: New Senate Entry — Wealthy former Google executive Lexi Reese (D), who says she will spend some of her own fortune on the open statewide US Senate race, announced that she will enter the California March 5 all-party primary for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D).

While her path to claim one of the two qualifying positions necessary for advancing into the general election is narrow since she faces sitting US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), the chances of her taking enough Democratic votes to potentially allow a Republican to sneak past the Democratic field and clinch a general election ballot slot becomes more plausible. The California Senate race will be one of the main attractions on Super Tuesday.

Montana: Another Major Endorsement for Sheehy — On the heels of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy announcing his senatorial campaign and receiving the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsement, another has come his way. Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) also announced his public support for Sheehy.

It is clear the Republican political establishment is getting solidly behind Sheehy in an attempt to deny Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who soon will announce his own Senate candidacy, the nomination. Rep. Rosendale begins with a large polling lead, so it will be worth watching to see if the Montana Republican establishment has enough pull to thwart a strong Rosendale bid. The eventual party nominee then challenges three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in what should be considered a must-win contest for the GOP.

Nevada: Former Candidate Ready to Announce — Disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown lost the 2022 Senate Republican primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, but raised more than $4.4 million for his race, which caught the attention of the Nevada Republican leaders. Reports are surfacing that suggest Brown will return for the 2024 campaign and will announce his intentions this month. Should he enter the Republican primary, he will face former state assemblyman and ex-Secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant.

The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what has the potential of becoming a top-tier 2024 Senate race.

Governor

Louisiana: Dueling Polls — Two all-party jungle gubernatorial primary polls have been released brandishing very different conclusions. The Remington Research Group (June 22-25; 896 likely Louisiana voters) released a survey this week that projected a close open contest. They found the lone Democratic candidate, former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who is now the officially endorsed party candidate, usurping all Republicans to capture the lead with 27 percent, two points ahead of Attorney General Jeff Landry. Former Louisiana Chamber of Commerce CEO and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack placed a relatively close third with 16 percent.

WPA Intelligence released their earlier poll to counter the Remington data. In their survey (June 15-17; 500 registered Louisiana voters; live interview & text) WPAi sees Landry (R) leading the candidate field with a 35 percent preference figure. Former Secretary Wilson secures the second general election runoff slot with 17 percent. In this poll, Waguespack (R) is a distant third with six percent support.

The Louisiana open governor’s primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. Since it is likely that no candidate will receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into the general election runoff, which is on the calendar for Nov. 18. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has already endorsed Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Budding Dem Primary on the Horizon — It has been presumed that Attorney General Josh Stein (D) would see little in the way of Democratic primary opposition in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D), but such may not ultimately be the case. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan made a public comment late last week that clearly suggests he is seriously considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

Understanding that Stein was only re-elected attorney general with just 50.1 percent of the vote in 2020, many in the Democratic Party may believe the party would fare better with a fresh face come the 2024 general election. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and former Congressman Mark Walker are the leading Republican candidates. This is a developing story.

Cornel West Switches to Green Party; Wicker Challenged in Mississippi; Republican Leads in CA-47 Democratic Poll; Houston Mayoral Race Shakeup

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 22, 2023

President

Cornel West

Cornel West: Switches to Green Party — Author/Activist Cornel West, who had declared his presidential candidacy under the People’s Party label has switched to the Green Party.

Assuming his new party nominates West, the move makes sense. The Green Party already has ballot status in 18 states and continues to work for more. Therefore, West has much greater initial ballot access under the Green Party label than he does with the virtually unknown People’s Party. If he gets enough attention, a West candidacy could draw from President Biden in some of the key states.

Senate

Mississippi: Sen. Wicker Challenged — GOP state Rep. Dan Eubanks (R-DeSoto County) confirmed to local publications that he will oppose Sen. Roger Wicker in next year’s Republican primary. The challenge will come from the political right since Eubanks is a conservative activist. He was first elected to the state House in 2015 and re-elected in 2019. Mississippi House members are awarded four year terms.

Sen. Wicker was first appointed at the end of 2007, succeeding former Majority Leader Trent Lott (R) who resigned. He was elected in his own right during the special election of 2008 and won full terms in 2012 and 2018. He has won comfortably with percentages in the mid to high 50s but never reached 60 percent in a general election. The senator was challenged in the 2018 Republican primary and received 83 percent of the vote. Prior to serving in the Senate, Wicker won seven US House elections beginning in 1994.

House

CA-47: Republican Baugh Leads in Dem Poll — Public Policy Polling (June 14-16; 555 CA-47 registered voters; live interview & text), surveying for state Sen. David Min (D-Irvine) to help position him for the open congressional race, released the data results. The initial ballot test favored Republican former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh by a 39-37 percent margin. After push questions, Sen. Min unsurprisingly pulled ahead, but even this Democratic poll suggests the open Orange County congressional seat battle will be intensely competitive.

In 2022, Baugh held Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) to 51.7 percent of the vote. The 47th District includes the cities of Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, and Laguna Beach. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.5D – 45.5R. Rep. Porter is leaving the district to run for US Senate.

Cities

Houston: Ex-City Councilwoman Leaves Mayor’s Race — Former Houston city councilwoman and ex-US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is ending her campaign for the open mayor’s position but has her eyes on Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s US House seat.

Edwards, who now endorses Rep. Jackson Lee for mayor, says she will be a candidate in an 18th Congressional District special election should the congresswoman win the mayor’s race. Edwards says she is confident Rep. Jackson Lee will be elected as Houston’s chief executive. Polling, however, suggests the leading candidate is state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) who has represented the city in the legislature since the beginning of 1973.

The mayoral election will be held on Nov. 7, 2023. If no candidate receives majority support in that contest, a runoff will be scheduled likely for a point in December.

Trump Indictment Poll Results;
Schiff in Wide Open Senate Race; Competition in OR-5; Matos in Rhode Island Special Election Poll Lead

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 14, 2023

President

National Poll: Similar Trump Indictment Response — The new national Ipsos/ABC News Poll (June 9-10; 910 registered US voters with a 411 Republican over-sample) finds a plurality of Americans (48 percent) believing former President Donald Trump is right to be charged pertaining to the indictments associated with the classified document issues.

A separate plurality cell (47 percent) within the same sampling universe, however, also believes the case is politically motivated. Only 37 percent say politics was not a factor in the indictments being brought. The remaining 16 percent are unsure. These numbers are within the same realm as the Ipsos/ABC poll conducted in early April after the New York indictments were brought against Trump.

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Emerson College Poll Finds Dead Heat — Emerson College tested the California electorate regarding the state’s open Senate race, which the Super Tuesday March 5 qualifying election will see all but two candidates eliminated. According to the EC survey (June 4-7; 1,056 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques), no candidate even breaks 15 percent support. Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) reaches the 15 percent plateau, and nips Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who registers 14 percent support. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) places third with six percent. The top-tested Republican candidate, businessman James Bradley, claims only four percent backing.

Obviously, this poll suggests a wide open race. Among Democrats, Rep. Schiff leads Reps. Porter and Lee, 23-22-10 percent. Republicans and Independents are wholly undecided with 60 and 58 percent of both groups indicating they have not decided upon for whom they will vote. Turning to retiring incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), 63 percent of those sampled believe she should resign the seat due to health considerations. Her job approval ratio within this poll was a poor 22:48 percent favorable to unfavorable.

House

OR-5: Local Official Steps Forward — The president of the Oregon Metro Council, an elected regional government body covering three populace counties in and around the Portland area, says she will enter the 2024 Fifth District congressional race. Democrat Lynn Peterson is hoping to challenge GOP freshman incumbent Lori Chavez DeRemer (R-Happy Valley).

The new 5th District stretches from the southern Portland suburbs, touches the eastern Salem suburbs, and then moves southeast to include the Bend area. Chavez-DeRemer defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who ousted then-Rep. Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary, by a 51-49 percent count in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+3.

Peterson will certainly have competition in the Democratic primary. Two minor Democrats have already announced and state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-North Clackamas) and McLeod-Skinner, potentially seeking a re-match, are viewed as possible candidates.

RI-1: Lt. Gov. Matos Out to Quick Special Election Lead — Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), one of the top contenders from a Democratic special election field that could reach as high as 17 candidates when filing closes on June 30, released the results of her recent Expedition Strategies internal poll. The survey (June 5-8; 400 RI-1 Democratic special election primary voters; live interview) sees Matos opening with a large 22-9 percent lead over former state Rep. Aaron Regunberg, a 2018 candidate for lieutenant governor. State Sen. Sandra Cano (D-Pawtucket) and Providence City Councilman John Goncalves trailed with six and five percent. No other candidate breaks four percent support.

The special Democratic primary is scheduled for Sept. 5, with the general election on Nov. 7. Rep. David Cicilline (D) resigned the seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates RI-1 as D+32, so the eventual Democratic primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to capture the seat in November.