Category Archives: Election Analysis

Another Sanford Comeback?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 7, 2025

Governor

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political figures seem to never go away. The Down Ballot political blog is reporting that former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) may return for another campaign.

Sanford who concluded his time as Governor in disgrace pertaining to an extramarital affair with an Argentinian woman in 2011, only to return to win a US House special election in 2013 for a seat that he had previously held before losing a renomination primary in 2018, says he may attempt yet another political comeback.

Sanford said Wednesday that he is considering again running for Governor when the post comes open in 2026. Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest-serving chief executive in state history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. Other Republicans considering running for Governor are Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

The Palmetto State promises to be an interesting political domain in 2026. South Carolina will host its first open gubernatorial race since 2010 when then-state Rep. Nikki Haley succeeded Sanford. In that crowded race for Governor, Haley defeated then-Attorney General McMaster, then-Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and then-Congressman Gresham Barrett. She out-polled state Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) in the general election.

In 2014, Gov. Haley was easily re-elected, and McMaster returned to state office in winning the Lieutenant Governor’s post. He would then ascend to the Governorship in 2017 when Haley was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump Administration. Gov. McMaster would win two terms in his own right, in 2018 and 2022.

Should Sanford enter the 2026 race, a chaotic campaign would likely ensue involving veteran political figures. Lt. Gov. Evette has been in office since 2019 and AG Wilson, son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/Aiken), has held his post since the beginning of 2011. Rep. Mace was elected to the House in 2020, after serving a term in the state House of Representatives and running for the US Senate in 2014.

Therefore, Sanford again appearing on the political stage in no way suggests that he would have an easy time securing another term as Governor.

After leaving the Governorship under a scandal cloud in 2011 Sanford was able to return to the US House, an institution where he originally served from 1995-2001. He won a 2013 special election to his former 1st Congressional District when then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).

During his return tenure in the House, Sanford became a vocal critic of then-President Donald Trump, which ultimately caused him to lose renomination in 2018. State Rep. Katie Arrington defeated Sanford in that year’s Republican primary, but largely due to a near fatal auto accident that almost cost her life, she would lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham who would then lose his 2020 re-election race to current Congresswoman Mace. In 2022, Cunningham won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination but lost to Gov. McMaster, 58-41 percent.

The state could also feature another interesting statewide campaign. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is running for a fifth term but could face significant primary opposition. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to confirm that he is considering launching such a challenge.

While Sen. Graham would be favored for renomination, Rep. Norman, with his backing from the South Carolina GOP’s strongly conservative base, would be a formidable opponent.

In 2020, Sen. Graham was in a difficult general election battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised more than $130 million in his race against Sen. Graham, and the contest transformed into a virtual national campaign. Though significantly outspent and facing tight polls, the Senator prevailed with a substantial 54-44 percent re-election victory margin.

While the Palmetto State political scene has been quiet since the last Graham election, it appears that the 2026 cycle will produce political fireworks that will again attract substantial national attention.

The Closest House Races (Part II)

US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025

House

Yesterday, we looked at the six closest House races of the 2024 election cycle, and today we conclude our report with the other five contests where the winner finished with less than 51 percent of the vote.

We begin with three Pennsylvania races, two of which flipped from Democrat to Republican and are a large part of the reason the GOP held its slim majority.

2026 US House Outlook

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) with a 50.5 – 49.5 percent victory margin translating into a vote spread of 4,062 votes. Rep. Wild had two close calls in her previous elections, but facing a different opponent who was better able to take advantage of increased Republican voter registration along with better national messaging proved enough to turn the tables. Freshman Rep. Mackenzie became one of just four Republican challengers nationally to defeat a House Democratic incumbent.

A similar fate awaited Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) in the congressional seat just to the north of the Lehigh Valley. Cartwright, first elected in 2012 from a district much more favorable to Democratic candidates, lost in November to Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan. The GOP victory margin here was 50.8 – 49.2 percent, meaning a vote difference of 6,252. The PA-8 district, carrying a rating of R+8, was the second most Republican district to abandon a Democratic incumbent in this election. Additionally, Rep. Cartwright was the most senior Democrat to lose his 2024 bid for re-election.

In central Pennsylvania, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg), no stranger to competitive campaigns, clinched a seventh term over former local news anchor Janelle Stelson (D) by 5,133 votes, or 50.6 – 49.4 percent. This was Perry’s closest re-election battle, but the redistricted 10th CD is much more Democratic than the version from which he originally won back in 2012. Furthermore, Stelson proved to be Rep. Perry’s most formidable opponent. It remains to be seen if she will return for a re-match in 2026.

Turning south, first-term North Carolina Democratic Congressman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) claimed a second term with a tight 49.5 – 47.8 percent win over retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R) in a redistricted seat that became much more Republican than the district Davis won two years earlier.

The legislature passed the 2023 North Carolina redistricting plan after Republicans assumed control of the state Supreme Court. This development led to a uniform redistricting approach between the courts and the state legislature. The new district boundaries not only made Davis’ 1st District more Republican but converted three Democratic seats to the GOP column. This map, along with the Democratic incumbent defeats in Pennsylvania and Colorado, largely accounted for Republicans holding the House majority.

The final close race is located in the Omaha, Nebraska area. As we know, Nebraska and Maine allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has voted Democratic for President in the most recent consecutive elections, but then turned around to repeatedly re-elect Republican Congressman Don Bacon (R-Papillion).

In the 2024 election, Bacon won a fifth term with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent vote margin (5,829 vote spread), which is a consistent result with his most recent re-election battles. NE-2 is becoming one of the more quintessential swing districts in the country and, along with Maine’s 2nd District that swings in the opposite direction, attracts a great deal of national political attention because of having potential undue influence on the presidential race.

We can expect to see all eleven of the ‘24 closest House elections once again becoming battleground regions in the 2026 election cycle. With the House having one of its closest majorities in history, every competitive district will have a major effect upon the full House outcome; and, with it determination over which party will assume control over the next Congress.

The Closest House Races (Part I)

US House Balance of Power / Source: US House of Representatives Press Gallery

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025

House

Now that the 2024 election numbers are all finalized and certified, we can begin to project battlegrounds for 2026. Republicans currently hold 218 seats while the Democrats have 215.

Not surprisingly, the House of Representatives’ very close partisan division yielded several tight finishes. In all, 29 House winners claimed their seats with less than 52 percent of the vote. As is the situation within the overall House chamber, the 11 closest winners are divided just about evenly between the two parties.

California Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes in 2024.

In the 2024 election, the 11 most competitive House races were decided by less than two percentage points. Republicans won six of these tight decisions and Democrats five.

The closest race came in northern California, where Democrat Adam Gray unseated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. In 2022, the two battled to a difference of 564 votes but in the opposite finishing order.

The 2024 result was a bit surprising because President Donald Trump carried California’s 13th District by more than five percentage points. Seeing a Republican incumbent lose, even in such a close margin, with the top of the ticket finishing rather strongly, was unique in this election. Duarte was the only Republican incumbent to lose in a district that President Trump clinched.

Regardless of the reasons for Duarte’s razor-thin defeat, we can expect this Modesto-anchored CD to again be at the forefront of House battlegrounds next year.

The second closest House contest was also found in California, but this race was located more than 300 miles south of CA-13. Orange County Democrat Derek Tran unseated two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by only 653 votes, or two-tenths of one percent. Rep. Steel has already filed a 2026 campaign committee, so seeing a re-match here in 2026 is a strong possibility.

Another contest where the challenger came within less than 1,000 votes of winning occurred in eastern Iowa. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) slipped past former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 799-vote margin. This, however, is not Miller-Meeks’ closest finish. When she first won the seat in 2020, she did so by only a six-vote difference. Since Bohannan also ran in 2022, it is unclear whether she will return for a third attempt. Regardless of who the Democrats field in the next election, this again will be a major targeted race.

The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the state’s new congressional seat as a politically marginal district that would reflect a changing electorate. Northern Colorado’s 8th District, located to the north and northeast of Denver and awarded to the state in the 2020 census, has so far performed as intended.

In 2022, then-state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D) won here with only 48.4 percent of the vote, which translated into a half-point victory margin. In 2024, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated the Congresswoman with a similar percentage, 48.9 percent, and a victory spread of seven-tenths of a point.

Evans’ upset victory proved a major reason for the Republicans being able to hold onto their small majority. Look for another tight contest in this perennial battleground district next year.

The next two results feature Democratic incumbents winning with similarly small margins as shown above. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Jared Golden (D-ME) both won re-election — a 20th time for Kaptur and third for Golden, but with less than a percentage point to spare.

Rep. Kaptur was first elected to her Toledo-anchored seat in 1982. She is the fourth-longest serving current House member and second-most senior in the Democratic Conference, behind only former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). Redistricting, however, has placed her in a plus-6 Republican district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, which largely explains her tight finish this year. She defeated then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) by only seven-tenths of a percentage point in November, or a raw vote spread of 2,382 votes.

Maine’s Congressman Golden (D-Lewiston) continues to hang onto the state’s northern seat by small margins despite President Trump carrying the district with large vote spreads. The Pine Tree State’s Ranked Choice Voting system certainly helps Golden, and it did so again in November, largely enabling him to outlast then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) by 2,706 votes in the RCV round, which translated into 50.3 percent of the vote.

There is a chance that Rep. Golden will enter the open Governor’s race in 2026, so this lean Republican seat could be open for the next election. Theriault is likely to run again, so expect ME-2 once more to become a top GOP conversion target next year.

Tomorrow, we will look at the five remaining House races where the winner failed to reach the 51 percent plateau.

Michigan Rep. James’ Crushing Lead

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025

Governor

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

Should two-term Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) decide to enter the open Michigan Governor’s race, a new poll finds that he would begin as an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination.

For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R), who fell just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percent) short of defeating Rep. Elissa Slotkin in the 2024 open Senate race, is sending signals that he would like to try again in 2026. If so, he should be a lock to win the party nomination.

Before winning two House races in 2022 and 2024, Rep. James had lost two close Senate races. In 2018, he surprised the entire political world by finishing within 6.5 percentage points of upsetting veteran Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) in what was not viewed as a race with close potential. Two years later, James did even better, closing the gap with now-retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) to 1.7 percent.

Post-redistricting in 2022, James defeated by half a percentage point former Macomb County prosecutor and ex-judge Carl Marlinga (D) in a Detroit suburban congressional district that favored the Democrats. He increased his victory percentage, again against Marlinga, to 6.1 percentage points in the 2024 re-election campaign.

President Donald Trump, who carried Michigan by just over 80,000 votes in November, looks to have breathed new life into a state Republican Party, which hadn’t seen a statewide victory here since Trump upset Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The new On-Message survey conducted for the Harbor Strategic Public Affairs company (Jan. 17-19; 1,000 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; text to web) yields very good news for Rep. James. He posts a commanding 46-6-4-3-1 percent advantage over state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Porter Township), former Attorney General Mike Cox, 2022 gubernatorial candidate Kevin Rinke, and ex-state House Speaker Tom Leonard, respectively. Of this group, Cox has been the most active potential candidate to date.

The Republican downside of Rep. James running statewide is that his politically marginal 10th Congressional District could become the Democrats’ top national conversion opportunity. Marlinga is making moves to run for a third time, but the Democratic leadership will likely look for a candidate whom they perceive would be stronger since the former judge was a weak fundraiser and lost two consecutive races in a winnable district.

Furthermore, the GOP would likely not have as viable a candidate as Rep. James in the party’s 2026 attempt to hold the toss-up CD.

Conversely, the Governor’s race features interesting Republican possibilities. Toward the end of last year, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan surprisingly announced that he would enter the open Governor’s race (incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term) and would do so as an Independent candidate. Though the mayoral campaigns are nonpartisan because party affiliation is not listed on the ballot, it was clear that Duggan associated himself with the Democrats. Therefore, announcing his gubernatorial bid as an Independent came as a surprise.

As a three-term citywide incumbent from the state’s largest municipality, Duggan will be a formidable gubernatorial candidate and has a chance to make this 2026 Michigan political contest a legitimate three-way race.

A strong Duggan performance could allow a credible Republican candidate such as James to win the statewide race with only plurality support. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who comes from the left-wing faction of the Democratic Party, has also announced her gubernatorial candidacy and is considered the favorite for the nomination at least at this early juncture.

Duggan, portraying himself as a more centrist candidate, could attract significant Democratic and Democratic-leaning Independent support, which is clearly his strategic objective, thus weakening the party’s prospects because their voters would be split.

Therefore, such a setup becomes much more enticing to a prospective Republican candidate who could unite the GOP for the general election. Rep. James certainly would have such ability.

At this point, the Congressman has not committed himself to running statewide, but polling such as this, and seeing his 77:6 percent positive favorability index from the OnMessage survey sample, is certainly another encouraging point.

The OnMessage data provides even more evidence that Michigan will be one of the top political states in the 2026 election cycle. Expect to see many political stories coming from this domain throughout the next two years.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Ramaswamy Up Big in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Surprising new data was just released regarding the open Ohio Governor’s race, thus giving more credibility to Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed campaign.

A late January Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey of the Ohio Republican electorate (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead.

Ramaswamy just resigned from President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he was serving as co-chair with Elon Musk, in order to return to Ohio with the reported intent of embarking on a gubernatorial campaign.

In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2 percent margin, respectively, according to the Fabrizio Lee results.

The Governor’s race has been at the heart of the Ohio political spectrum and figured prominently in the selection of a Senator to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.

Gov. Mike DeWine chose Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) for the Senate seat, though it apparently took some convincing before he accepted the position. Husted had been planning for years to run for Governor when DeWine’s final term comes to an end. Therefore, the 2026 election looked to begin with a Republican primary battle between Husted and Yost, which was expected to be hard fought and potentially divisive.

The open Senate seat drastically changed the picture. With Sen. Husted having to run to fill the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full term in 2028, he is out of the Governor’s race. This gave AG Yost and State Treasurer Robert Sprague the opportunity of battling in the GOP primary for the right to succeed Gov. DeWine as the party nominee.

The Ramaswamy potential entry changes the political outlook yet again, especially with this new data posting him to a very large and surprising lead. Independently wealthy, Ramaswamy will have as much money as he needs to run a strong campaign. Therefore, we can expect an intense GOP primary battle.

At this point, the only Democrat to so far announce her gubernatorial candidacy is former Ohio Health Department director and physician Amy Acton.

It is likely others will soon follow. Those Democrats mentioned as potential statewide contenders are the mayors of Ohio’s three largest cities: Andy Ginther in Columbus, Cleveland’s Justin Bibb, and Cincinnati chief executive Aftab Pureval. State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and ex-Congressman and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan are also frequently mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates.

Though Ohio is voting more Republican in recent elections – President Trump carried the state three times with an average win margin of 9.1 percent and Ohio has now elected two Republican Senators, for example; the Democrats are still expected to make a maximum effort to convert this office in 2026.

The Senate race will obviously also factor into the statewide political picture. The major question surrounds the status of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who was defeated for re-election in November. While he has been more closely associated with running again for the Senate since there will now be a special election to fill the balance of the Husted term, there is also some speculation that he could run for Governor.

Sen. Brown had always been viewed as someone who could attract Republican votes even though he is unabashedly liberal. That aura was certainly punctured when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno in November by just over 3.6 percentage points after spending $103 million just through his individual campaign committee. Despite his loss, it is clear that Brown would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate either for the Senate or Governor.

Ohio will again be a major political battleground, and we can expect to see a great deal of activity coming from the Buckeye State throughout the 2026 election cycle.

Virginia Poll Projects Sen. Warner Leading over Gov. Youngkin

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 30, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mark Warner (D) | Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

A recent 2026 political survey projects Sen. Mark Warner (D) posting a seven-point lead over Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) in a hypothetical Senate race poll, but methodological flaws are apparent.

The L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University conducted the survey, but the sampling period consumed almost a month (Dec. 18, 2024 – Jan. 15, 2025), and the sampling universe was comprised of 806 adults over the age of 18. The sampling period’s length reduces the accuracy figure and not segmenting the ample respondent universe into registered and/or likely voters further skews the data.

The methodology notwithstanding, Sen. Warner would lead Gov. Youngkin 45-38 percent on the ballot test according to VCU, but the Republican leads among Independents 37-16 percent. This suggests that Sen. Warner’s support among Democrats is greater than Gov. Youngkin’s backing among Republicans, but even these numbers are not supported in other similar surveys as detected for the open 2025 Governor’s race.

Furthermore, an incumbent Senator only commanding 16 percent of the Independent voting segment is abnormally low, and likely another reason to question the overall reliability of this VCU survey.

It is also important to note that neither Sen. Warner nor Gov. Youngkin have announced their 2026 Senate candidacy. It is presumed that Sen. Warner will seek a fourth term, but no formal announcement has been made to date. Speculation has been relatively heavy about Youngkin running for the Senate, but the Governor has yet to acknowledge interest in such a race. He is also rumored to be looking toward a 2028 presidential run, and if so, challenging Sen. Warner will not likely be his next political move.

The VCU pollsters also tested the open 2025 Governor’s campaign and find former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, at this point the consensus Democratic presumptive nominee, and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the presumptive Republican nominee posting similar partisan numbers as found in the Senate race.

According to the VCU results, Spanberger would lead the Lieutenant Governor, 44-34 percent. It is here where we can draw a direct comparison with other recent surveys. For example, three other polls conducted during the period beginning Jan. 6-20 reveal much different results.

The most recent survey, from the co/efficient polling firm (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely Virginia voters; live interview & text), sees the two gubernatorial candidates tied at 40 percent apiece.

Christopher Newport University tested the Virginia electorate over the Jan. 6-13 period (806 registered Virginia voters; live interview) and found Spanberger recording a five percentage point advantage, 44-39 percent.

Earlier, Emerson College surveyed the Commonwealth just after the first of the year (Jan. 6-8; 1,000 registered Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques) and they arrived at a ballot test conclusion similar to co/efficient’s results, with Spanberger edging Earle-Sears, 42-41 percent.

Therefore, the VCU survey conducted of adults and not registered or likely voters, seems to be an outlier because three other polls conducted within the same sampling period with more refined respondent universes project much closer results.

Whether a Warner-Youngkin Senate race materializes remains to be seen. If the contest does form, we can count on seeing a much closer contest than the VCU poll suggests, and one that would likely go down to the wire. The current prevailing wisdom among Virginia politicos, however, is that such a challenge campaign is unlikely to form.

The more likely Senate scenario sees Sen. Warner seeking a fourth term and easily winning re-election without facing a major Republican opponent.