Category Archives: Election Analysis

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Sherrill & Ciattarelli Win NJ Primaries

By Jim Ellis – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries last evening setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the fall. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) at the beginning of 2026.

Various surveys had projected each of these candidates leading in their primary campaigns throughout the entire election cycle. With no polling numbers released in over a month, however, and Rep. Sherrill finding herself under heavy attack from her Democratic opponents, predicting the end result was not as clear cut as one might have expected.

In the end, Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34 percent among the six candidates.

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli margin was over 67 percent, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.

Turnout favored the Democrats, which isn’t surprising since the primary was more competitive, featured a large number of candidates, and the party has almost a 13-point voter registration advantage in the state. In 2017, the last time we saw a seriously contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, a total of 503,219 people voted. In the current election, it appears the Democratic turnout factor could exceed 860,000 votes, which would calculate to a huge 72 percent turnout increase.

For the Republicans, 339,033 individuals participated in the 2021 competitive primary that Ciattarelli won. It appears yesterday’s GOP final turnout count has exceeded 500,000 voters, which is an approximate 48 percent increase compared to their previous competitive primary participation factor.

In terms of fundraising, the aggregate Democratic dollar amount gathered was approximately $42 million at the end of May among the six candidates. The fundraising totals were evenly spread, with the top three fundraisers, Sherrill, Fulop, and Gottheimer, each obtaining more than $9 million in campaign contributions. Sweeney raised a surprisingly high $8 million-plus, and Mayor Baraka posted a credible $6.4 million. Spiller’s percentage vote total was very favorable considering he raised less than $1 million.

The Republican aggregate end of May dollar figure was just under $19 million, with almost half of that total ($9.25 million) going to Ciattarelli. Both Sen. Bramnick and Spadea broke the $4 million mark with the state legislator posting just under $5 million and the radio talk show host recording a campaign receipt total of $4.5 million.

Democratic endorsements were split among all the candidates. Rep. Sherrill won 10 county Democratic Party endorsements, all from the northern part of the state, Sweeney six counties, all in New Jersey’s southern portion, and Rep. Gottheimer earned two northern NJ county endorsements from within the 5th Congressional District that he represents. The official Somerset County party organization jointly endorsed all the candidates.

The most well-known Democratic officeholders, Gov. Murphy and Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, remained neutral, as did the Atlantic and Ocean County Democratic Party organizations. They will certainly help lead the Democratic charge in the general election, however.

Kentucky Gov. Beshear’s Comments on Potential Run for the Presidency

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 10, 2025

President

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) / U.S. Air National Guard photo by Dale Greer

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) made some comments during an exclusive interview with a Louisville television reporter that put forth some of his thoughts about running for President. The interview also revealed that he is not currently considering a bid for his state’s open Senate seat.

Gov. Beshear said, in an answer to Louisville television news reporter Isaiah Kim-Martinez’s question about running for President, that “What matters to me is that I don’t leave a broken country to my kids. And if I’m somebody who can bring people together and heal this country, then it’s something I’ll consider.”

The Democratic leadership would certainly like to see Gov. Beshear run for the Senate because he, realistically, is the only Democrat who would have a chance at converting retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat away from the Republicans.

The Governor’s recent actions, however, suggest that a Senate campaign isn’t on his political radar. Beshear is conducting many national interviews, traveling the country to appear at fundraising events for state parties and individual candidates, hosting a podcast concentrating on national politics, and in January will become chairman of the Democratic Governors Association. These activities clearly suggest a politician with national rather than statewide ambitions.

Gov. Beshear’s current actions are good news for Republicans, particularly Senate candidates Daniel Cameron, the former state Attorney General who lost the 2023 Governor’s campaign to Beshear, and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington). Without the Governor in the Senate race, the GOP primary winner next May will automatically become the prohibitive favorite to win the 2026 general election.

A potential Beshear presidential candidacy, however, sets up an interesting intra-party dynamic. Another now-former southern Democratic Governor, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, is also considering a presidential run and is another Governor or ex-Governor that the Democratic leadership would like to see run for the Senate.

Thinking about a lone Democratic presidential candidate hailing from the southern region makes that person a legitimate contender for the party nomination, assuming he can sweep the block of the Deep South and border state bound delegate votes. Therefore, either Gov. Beshear or former Gov. Cooper would be considered a credible national candidate so long as only one runs for President. Otherwise, the regional votes would be split, thus likely dooming them both.

The open 2028 presidential election will feature a huge number of Democratic candidates, many of whom are Governors or former Governors – Beshear, Cooper, 2024 Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz (MN), Wes Moore (MD), Gavin Newsom (CA), J.B. Pritzker (IL), Josh Shapiro (PA), and Gretchen Whitmer (MI) are all potential candidates – along with many others who are not state chief executives.

Geography is a key point that brings into central focus the Democratic National Committee members’ decision in scheduling the nomination calendar. The order in which the states vote will be a major intangible factor directly relating to who wins the next Democratic presidential nomination. Yet, it remains to be seen which states are sanctioned to vote before the eventual Super Tuesday date.

Remember, in the 2024 nomination campaign, the Democrats ditched Iowa and New Hampshire as the traditional first voting states. This left only the South Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada electorates to cast the initial nomination votes prior to the Super Tuesday bonanza which featured 16 voting entities (15 states and one territory). Under the 2024 schedule, Gov. Whitmer would be in prime position because her large state, Michigan (117 delegates), is the only pre-Super Tuesday domain from where a prospective national candidate hails.

Also, under current party rules, the Super Delegates, those party leaders and elected officials who have elite status, are ironically not allowed to vote for President on the first ballot. The DNC members will also decide whether this practice will continue.

Thus, future DNC meetings where the presidential primary schedule and the Super Delegate issues will be brought before the members will create major discussion points to say the least.

Therefore, certain key decisions about the party’s nomination structure will soon be answered and long before the first primary votes are cast in whatever states are ultimately slotted before Super Tuesday.

Sen. Ernst Draws Dem Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 6, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) / Photo by Sage Naumann

Two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has drawn her first prominent Democratic opponent, and the individual claims his decision to run is a reaction to a comment she made at a recent town hall event saying, “we are all going to die,” in response to a Medicare funding query.

Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who failed in his 2018 congressional race against then-Rep. Steve King (R), and again in the 2020 open seat campaign opposite current Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), announced that he will challenge Sen. Ernst next year. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race.

In an interview with a Des Moines Register newspaper reporter, Scholten explained his motivation for quickly deciding to run after hearing about Sen. Ernst’s comments. In the interview, Scholten said, “… and just sitting there, contemplating life like you do at a funeral, I just thought I need to do this,” he said. “And so then when she doubled down on Saturday with her, I felt, very disrespectful comments, I was like, OK, game on.”

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 51-43 percent open seat victory over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Six years later, she was re-elected with a 51-44 percent victory over Iowa real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield (D) in a campaign where the Senator was outspent by a 2:1 ratio. The aggregate expenditure level between the two candidate committees almost reached $84 million.

In each of those elections, the Democratic candidate over-polled and led early. In the 2014 Senate contest between Ernst and Braley, the Republican state Senator and the Democratic House member were trading the polling lead through most of the race. The contest began to gel for Ernst in October, when she ran ahead of Braley in 12 of 14 polls with four ties.

Though the pollsters were correctly forecasting an Ernst win, they badly missed on the margin as her victory spread was 8.3 percentage points as opposed to an average point lead of just 2.3, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives.

In the 2020 Senate race, we saw a different pattern yet with a similar conclusion. From September through mid-October, Greenfield held a consistent polling lead. Sen. Ernst began to rebound around Oct. 20 and saw the polling edge begin to flip between the two candidates with the incumbent clinging to a small advantage. In the end, Sen. Ernst was re-elected with a 6.6 percent margin, again well beyond what most pollsters forecast.

Throughout President Donald Trump’s elections the discussed familiar Iowa polling pattern was also present as far back as the 2016 election cycle. Trump and Hillary Clinton were going back and forth in polling for most of the election. In November, Trump began to pull away but averaged only a three-point lead. On election night, he recorded a Hawkeye State victory margin of just under 10 percentage points.

The 2020 polls again produced this repetitive pattern. Ballot test results were seesawing through most of the cycle with Trump forging ahead of Joe Biden at the end with a small average (2.0 percent, in this case), yet would win by 8.2 points when the actual ballots were counted.

In 2024, the state was being polled less possibly because the previous patterns would again likely yield to a strong Republican push at the end that would nullify early polling results. As with every major Iowa election since 2014, the Republican candidate was underestimated. Trump’s 2024 positive Iowa polling average was 4.3 points, again according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, yet his victory margin broke the 13-point plateau.

Expect a similar pattern to develop for the current election in that polling will likely show this 2026 Senatorial contest to be relatively close through most of the election cycle. In the closing days, it is probable that Sen. Ernst will pull away and win with a larger vote margin than the polling average will suggest.

New York Gov. Hochul Challenged

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 5, 2025

Governor

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) struggling in polls.

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is being challenged by her own hand-picked Lieutenant Governor.

Claiming there is “an absence of bold, decisive, transformational leadership,” New York Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who Gov. Kathy Hochul appointed to his statewide position in 2022, announced that he will challenge the Governor in next year’s Democratic primary.

Immediately upon hearing the Delgado announcement, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) publicly noted that the Lieutenant Governor’s action underscores her own talking point. That is, that with Gov. Hochul’s hand-picked running mate turning on her, it is yet another indication that she is a failed state chief executive. Rep. Stefanik is expected to seek the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

The Delgado announcement may affect New York’s Democratic congressional delegation because Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is also considering entering the party’s gubernatorial primary.

In fact, the early Delgado announcement may be directed more at Torres than Hochul. Polling consistently shows both the challenger and potential challenger each taking between 10 to 13 percent of the Democratic vote against the Governor, thus splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Therefore, both entering the race would almost assuredly guarantee a Hochul plurality primary win.

Conversely, should Rep. Torres seek re-election, Lt. Gov. Delgado’s total support figure against the Governor could conceivably double as a result. Therefore, one credible challenger with a significant support base a full year before the state’s June 23 primary opposite an incumbent who generally posts mediocre job approval ratings has the makings of a serious race.

Additionally, we can now expect both the Governor and Delgado to soon make a strong pitch to obtain the Working Families Party ballot line. Doing so would be particularly important for Delgado, since being the Working Families Party nominee – candidates can appear on more than one ballot line in New York – would guarantee him a spot in the general election.

Having the WFP line would also be important to Gov. Hochul, since her appearing as that party’s standard bearer would shut out another Democrat or left-of-center candidate from advancing into the general election. With the power of the Governorship in her political toolbox, it would appear that Hochul is in a stronger position to obtain the minor party endorsement than Delgado.

Should Rep. Torres decide to enter the race, his likely strategy would be to concentrate on his New York City base, since both Gov. Hochul and Lt. Gov. Delgado hail from upstate New York, as well as building within the state’s substantial Jewish community. Rep. Torres has been a staunch and vocal supporter of Israel and thus has the opportunity of developing this coalition into a major support asset. Even with these advantages, Rep. Torres would still likely lag behind in a three-way race.

Rep. Stefanik, or the eventual Republican gubernatorial nominee, would see a best-case scenario from the GOP perspective with a close Hochul win from an internally divisive Democratic primary campaign.

Even a best-case Republican scenario, however, is unlikely to yield a statewide victory unless new trends are developed. While President Donald Trump saw a greater improvement in New York than any other state when comparing his 2024 performance with what he recorded in 2020 (up a net 10.6 percentage points), he still lost to Kamala Harris by a substantial 55-43 percent margin. EPA Administrator, former New York Congressman, and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Lee Zeldin finished stronger than any Republican candidate since George Pataki was last re-elected in 2002, but Zeldin still lost to Gov. Hochul, 53-47 percent.

Despite poor favorability ratings and a serious intra-party challenge, Gov. Hochul must still be rated as at least a slight favorite to win re-election next year. The campaign, however, does promise to become intriguing and one that will capture considerable national political attention.

CO-8: Another Battleground Campaign for Control of the US House

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 4, 2025

House

One certainty for the 2026 election cycle is that Colorado’s 8th Congressional District will again feature a competitive and hugely expensive campaign.

The Centennial State gained a new US House seat from the 2020 national reapportionment formula due to excessive population growth. The Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission members purposely drew the state’s new 8th CD as a highly competitive district that could go back and forth between the parties to reflect the electorate’s short-term political swings. So far, the district has performed as designed.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, then a state Representative, won the 8th District’s initial election with a tight 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory margin over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Two years later, reflecting a more Republican trend in the marginal district, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Caraveo by a similarly small victory spread, 48.9 – 48.2 percent.

The 2026 campaign has already drawn five Democratic candidates, including former Rep. Caraveo. Her campaign just released the results of the latest internal Public Policy Polling survey (May 19-20; 467 likely C0-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that posts the former Congresswoman to a substantial early lead in the party primary.

According to the PPP ballot test, Caraveo would attract 36 percent support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s eight percent preference factor. State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at five and four percent, respectively.

The Democratic primary is already attracting significant local media attention. A story has surfaced that Caraveo, a physician, had previously attempted suicide. The district also attracted early acclaim when Rutinel, the first announced candidate, raised just under $1.2 million in this year’s first quarter.

In contrast, Caraveo, who spent over $8.1 million for her 2024 campaign and ended with just over $4,300 remaining in her account as 2024 concluded, had just $330 cash-on-hand for the new campaign at the end of March. Her financial status, however, will soon change. State Treasurer Young and state Rep. Bird are recent entries into the race. Baca-Oehlert is soon expected to formally announce her candidacy.

For his part, Rep. Evans reported 2025 receipts through March 31 of just under $811,000 and showed slightly more than $755,000 in his cash-on-hand column. In 2024, Evans’ campaign spent just under $2.7 million in the challenger effort.

We can expect to see each side, when adding independent expenditures to the aggregate, spending as much as $25 million apiece. In 2024, outside spending in the CO-8 race totaled almost $17 million for the Democrats (61 percent spent on negative ads) and $12.2 million for the Republicans (90 percent negative) according to the Open Secrets organization reports.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the larger cities of Thornton, Westminster, Greeley, and Commerce City, and wholly lies in parts of three counties, Adams (87 percent of county’s population), Larimer (five percent), and Weld (75 percent). President Joe Biden carried the 8th District in 2020 with a 50.8 – 46.3 percent margin. Two years later, President Donald Trump rebounded to defeat Kamala Harris here, 49.6 – 47.8 percent, again reflecting the district’s tight political nature.

It can be debated whether having such a marginal political district that guarantees hugely expensive congressional campaigns every two years is reflective of the good government intention that the redistricting commission members professed for their reasons of drawing such a district. Yet, so far the draw has produced the desired effect.

The Colorado redistricting system features three citizens commissions each constructed to draw a set of districts (i.e., congressional, state Senate, and state House of Representatives). Some believe this model has been the best of the states that employ commissions.

One reason for the positive reviews is the state Supreme Court has a defined role in the process. Once the commissions complete their respective maps, the finished plans automatically move to the state Supreme Court for legal review before the plans are finally adopted.

Having the court as part of the defined process has resulted in no redistricting lawsuits being filed in the state; therefore, yielding a much smoother process. Unlike many states, the Colorado process has now virtually guaranteed that the maps will stay in place for the entire decade consistent with the original redistricting intent.