Tag Archives: North Carolina

Post-Trump/Harris Debate Polling; New Ads Debut; Alabama Governor’s Race News; Pollster Accuracy Rankings Released

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Donald Trump: Fabrizio Releases Post-Debate Polling Memo — Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio conducted a post-debate flash poll (Sept. 11; 1,893 likely voters from seven swing states; online) and compared the results to their previous poll conducted “last week,” before the debate (5,600 likely voters from seven swing states; online), and claim tha actually gained support after the forum.

Post-debate, the ballot tests from the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) found Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 48-46 percent when minor party candidates were included and 50-47 percent from a head-to-head Trump vs. Harris question. The pre-debate data found the two tied at 46 percent apiece in the multi-candidate configuration and 48-48 percent from the head-to-head question.

Though these numbers certainly cut against the grain of stated post-debate perceptions, the full effect will be felt next week when we see the next round of publicly released polling.

House

Congressional Leadership Fund: Launches Series of Ads — The Congressional Leadership Fund, an outside Super PAC with ties to the House Republican leadership, unleashed a series of well researched and targeted ads in nine competitive congressional districts. Each ad is customized for the individual target and not what are commonly called “cookie cutter” messages where the target and verbiage are interchangeable. Democratic organizations use the latter technique to attack Republicans on the abortion issue.

The Democratic targets are: Kirsten Engel (AZ-6 against Rep. Juan Ciscomani), Rudy Salas (CA-22; Rep. David Valadao), Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-8; GOP candidate Gabe Evans), former Rep. Mondaire Jones (NY-17; Rep. Mike Lawler), Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18; GOP candidate Alison Esposito), Josh Riley (NY-19; Rep. Marc Molinaro), Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9; GOP candidate Derek Merrin), Janelle Bynum (OR-5; Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer), and Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-8; GOP candidate Rob Bresnahan).

Governor

Alabama: A Potential Tuberville Gubernatorial Candidacy? — Speculation abounds that first-term Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) may eschew running for re-election in 2026 and instead attempt to succeed GOP Gov. Kay Ivey who will be ineligible to seek a third term.

In response to a question about this possibility, Sen. Tuberville was non-committal but said that he is “tired of getting kicked in the teeth being in the [US Senate] minority.” His view of the Senate may change if the Republicans capture the majority in November, however.

Should Sen. Tuberville decide to enter the open race for governor, he would only have to clear what is expected to be a crowded GOP primary in strongly Republican Alabama. With his strong conservative record, his chances of winning the Republican nomination appear highly favorable.

Another possible scenario, should the senator decide to run for governor, is seeing a primary that isn’t as hotly contested since many of the credible contenders would then opt to run for Tuberville’s open Senate seat.

Polling

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Pollster Rankings — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released their latest rankings of the nation’s political pollsters, and again paid compliments to the most accurate of the survey research firms.

The number one pollster is the New York Times/Siena College. ABC News/Washington Post was rated second, and Marquette University Law School third. The international online pollster YouGov occupies the fourth slot, which is just ahead of Monmouth University, which rounds out the top five. The first four received perfect 3.0 scores on the 538 scale, while Monmouth was close behind at 2.9.

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Harris Momentum is Up, However So is the Voter Registration Gap in Battleground States: What It Means

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 16, 2024

Voter Registration

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a momentum wave in polling that puts her slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in most places, one element trending against her is the battleground states partisan registration gap.

Voters in only 30 states register by political party designation, and several of them are in the most competitive category. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are either hotly contested or showing signs of potential swing voting, require partisan registration designations on the voter registration forms. (Maine and Nebraska are included here because they split their electoral votes, meaning allowing each congressional district to carry its own vote. Both states have districts that tend to swing opposite of the statewide tally.)

In some cases, both parties have fewer members in these swing domains than they did in 2020, largely due to the election authorities conducting list purges to eliminate people who no longer live at the stated address, have passed away, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive elections (state laws differ on the criteria listed last).

All of the aforementioned states have fewer registered Democrats than they did at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show a greater number of registered Republicans on their most recent registration report as opposed to where they stood at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania also have more unaffiliated voters than they did at the beginning of 2021.

The statistic of particular interest comes in the states where the raw number registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has significantly changed. It is here where the Republicans benefit substantially, and this is a statistical category that will not necessarily be reflected in polling.

In Arizona, New Hampshire (which is a new entry in this category), and the 2nd District of Nebraska, Republican registrants outnumber Democrats. With New Hampshire flipping to plurality Republican since 2021, that could signal a different vote pattern in 2024, and that could make a major difference in several races including the presidential campaign.

If Trump were to convert Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while assuming he kept all 25 states and the 2nd District of Maine in his column, all of which have voted for him twice — he would win a 272-268 electoral vote victory, and can do so without carrying any of the key Great Lakes states that are typically highlighted as the deciding factor in the national race.

In all of the remaining swing or potentially swing domains: Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the registration gap between the two parties is much smaller denoting Republican gains in each place.

Most significantly, in three states, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, the net Republican registration gain is larger than the number of votes that separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Therefore, these states become obvious Trump conversion targets.

The Republican registration gap in North Carolina has also improved for the party. Though still behind the Democrats by more than 132,000 registrants, the new numbers represent a net GOP gain of 111,066 individuals than at the beginning of 2021. Therefore, while Trump twice carried the Tar Heel State, his margins were small and the boost in registration should make this critical state a bit safer for his Republican team in 2024.

The state of Florida is the most extreme registration change example and is generally what takes the state out of play not only for Democrats at the presidential level, but also in the US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and his most likely opponent, former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).

Since 2021, the registration gap has grown in the Republicans favor by a net 940,005 individuals, which gives the Republicans a registration advantage over the Democrats of just over one million partisan voters.

While polling detects the Harris surge in the presidential race, the Republicans closing the registration gap in all of the battleground states where registered partisanship can be measured should be considered at least one significant neutralizing factor of the polling numbers as we head toward early voting month in October.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.