Tag Archives: Maryland

Trone’s Spending & Gaffes;
CA-49 Becoming Competitive; Understanding CA-16;
Daughtry Drops Out of NC-13 Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 6, 2024

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Trone’s Spending & Gaffes — Reports are surfacing that Rep. David Trone’s (D-Potomac) personal spending on his Senate race to win the Maryland Democratic US Senate primary has now exceeded an incredible $57 million. Polling, however, suggests that while Trone leads on the various ballot tests he still hasn’t quite put away Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

Trone is now recovering from two misstatements that have caused him to publicly apologize. The first was uttering a racially insensitive comment during a committee hearing, and the second is verbiage in his latest ad that suggests he wouldn’t need “training wheels” once he entered the Senate, which is a condescending backhanded swipe at Alsobrooks’ lack of legislative experience. Trone had to publicly apologize for the committee remark, and now has removed the training wheels language from his ads, yielding to the criticism. Thus, he is in an apologetic position entering the critical final two weeks of campaigning before the May 14 primary election.

House

CA-49: Becoming Competitive — California Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-San Juan Capistrano) Orange-San Diego County district is on the borderline of competitiveness. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+5 and President Joe Biden carried the district with a 55-43 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-49 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In the 2022 election, Rep. Levin defeated frequent Republican congressional candidate Brian Maryott, 52.6 – 47.4 percent, which is a closer margin than President Biden’s.

Republicans, armed with what appears to be a better candidate in the ’24 election, just released an 1892 research organization poll from three weeks ago (April 9-11; 400 likely CA-49 general election voters; live interview) that finds Rep. Levin only leading business owner Matt Gunderson (R) by a scant 44-42 percent margin with President Biden’s image degrading to an upside-down 39:56 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio. This, coupled with the fact that Rep. Levin only pulled 51 percent of the vote in the March jungle primary, suggests this race could become highly competitive in November.

CA-16: A Greater Understanding — The Silicon Valley congressional situation may be becoming clearer. With the original count showing Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) tied for the second general election qualifying position after all ballots were counted, curiosity arose when allies of first-place finisher Sam Liccardo (D), the former mayor of San Jose, requested and paid for an electronic recount. Under California election procedure, in the event of a tie between candidates for a general election qualifying position, both would advance to the November ballot. Therefore, it was in neither Simitian nor Low’s interest to request a recount.

An early April Lake Research poll (April 5-8; 400 likely CA-16 general election voters; live interview) found a tight three-way contest if the tie stood, with Liccardo leading Assemblyman Low and Supervisor Simitian by a tight 26-21-20 percent count. If the battle were only between Liccardo and Low, the former mayor would hold a stronger 36-26 percent advantage. The recount did change the outcome, and the final numbers now show Low with a five-vote advantage. It remains to be seen if Simitian will challenge that result.

NC-13: Candidate Daughtry Drops Out — Attorney Kelly Daughtry (R), who placed first in the 14-candidate 13th District Republican primary on March 5, has now dropped out of the race. Daughtry indicated her initial internal polling suggested she led the runoff against former federal prosecutor Brad Knott, but the candidate said when former President Donald Trump endorsed her opponent, the race’s entire political flow changed.

Saying that Trump’s “involvement has foreclosed her path to victory,” Daughtry announced late last week that she is ending her campaign. This means that Knott will be effectively unopposed in the May 14 Republican runoff and is a lock to convert the newly redistricted seat to the GOP column in November.

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

April-May Primary Outlook – Part II

Primaries

Today, we conclude our early primary outlook with a recap of the May 14 primaries in Maryland, Nebraska, and West Virginia, and the May 21 contests in Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Maryland

May 14 will host a very active day in Maryland politics. Voters will choose nominees for an open US Senate race and three open House seats which, in most cases, will determine who will also win the general election.

The big statewide race features US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks vying for the open US Senate Democratic nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). Cardin spent more than $24 million on his campaign before the end of 2023, but still has not fully pulled away from Alsobrooks in the polling. The winner will face former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) in what is now a competitive general election even in this most Democratic of states.

Eleven-term Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) is retiring and leaves a six-way Democratic primary in his wake. The odds-on favorite to capture the party nomination and the seat in the general is Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski (D), who already represents more people than the number who reside in a congressional district. State Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Parkville) is one of the top contenders, but the race is Olszewski’s to lose.

With Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) retiring, perhaps the largest congressional field in the country has assembled. A total of 22 Democrats have filed for the primary in a district where the party nominee will easily win the seat in November. Among the almost two dozen candidates are two state senators and three state delegates. With so many competing candidates, the party nomination is completely up for grabs.

Rep. Trone’s open 6th CD features crowded primaries for both parties in what should lead to a competitive general election. Democrats have fielded 14 candidates including April McClain Delaney, a former Commerce Department official who is married to former US Rep. John Delaney, and a pair of state delegates.

Republicans see seven contenders, two of whom have won major primaries but gone down to defeat in the general elections because they are too conservative for the region. Dan Cox, the 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee and two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate Neil Parrott, are the two most well-known Republicans competing for the nomination. Should one of them top the GOP field, the edge goes to the eventual Democratic nominee in a district that should be considered a toss-up.

Reps. Andy Harris (R-Cambridge), Glenn Ivey (D-Cheverly), Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville), Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) all face minor primary opposition.

Nebraska

The Cornhusker State features both US Senate seats up for election in 2024. The second due to a previous resignation, but neither Sen. Deb Fischer (R) and appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) face major competition in the Republican primary nor general election.

While Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) will be embroiled in another tough general election battle in the Omaha anchored 2nd District, neither he nor state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tony Vargas (D) have serious primary opposition.

Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) and Adrian Smith (R-Gering), whose district encompasses all or parts of 80 of Nebraska’s 93 counties in a seat that stretches from Wyoming to Iowa, face only minor primary opposition.

West Virginia

The Mountain State features open Senate and gubernatorial races; Republicans are favored in both contests. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D) retirement makes the GOP eventual nominee, likely Gov. Jim Justice who is expected to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), the prohibitive favorite. Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott is favored to win the Democratic primary.

The open Republican gubernatorial primary is a spirited contest featuring Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who leads in all polls, and two sons of current West Virginia office holders. Former state Delegate Moore Capito and businessman Chris Miller, sons of US Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) and Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are battling for the nomination as is Secretary of State Mac Warner. The primary winner will become a strong favorite against the presumptive Democratic nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams.

Rep. Mooney’s open 2nd District yields a Republican primary of five candidates, including state Treasurer Riley Moore, a nephew to Sen. Capito. Moore is a clear favorite to win the party nomination and defeat presumptive Democratic nominee Steven Wendelin in the general election.

Georgia

While the Peach State is arguably the most pivotal domain in the presidential election, 2024 is a rather quiet year for in-state Georgia politics. There is very little competition in the general election, but we do see three primaries of note.

In GOP Rep. Drew Ferguson’s open 3rd District, six Republicans compete for the party nomination including state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton), two ex-legislators, and a former Trump White House aide. The two top finishers being forced into a June 18 runoff election is the likely primary outcome. In a district that 538 rates R+38, the eventual Republican nominee is a lock to win the general election.

Two Democratic members face primary opposition. Because of the latest court-ordered redistricting directive, Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) must run in a much different district than the current domain she represents. As a result, she is drawing primary opposition from state Rep. Mandisha Thomas (D-Atlanta) and Cobb County Commissioner Jerica Richardson. Rep. McBath is favored, but the two opponents forcing a runoff is not beyond the realm of possibility. The eventual Democratic nominee will have an easy run in November.

Veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta), no stranger to facing primary opposition, now has six Democratic opponents including Marcus Flowers, who challenged Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in 2022. East Point City Councilwoman Karen Rene is the only candidate within the group who has any current political constituency. Rep. Scott is again favored for renomination. GA-13 is safely Democratic in the general election.

Idaho

With no Senate or governor’s race on the ballot, the Idaho election cycle will be uneventful. In the primary, Rep. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) faces no primary opposition, while veteran Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) drew two minor Republican challengers. No change is expected in the Gem State delegation.

Kentucky

The Blue Grass State is another place with little political activity this year. All incumbents are expected to easily retain their congressional seats.

Reps. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville), Thomas Massie (R-Garrison), and Hal Rogers (R-Somerset) each face minor opposition in their respective Democratic and Republican primaries.

Oregon

The Beaver State also has no governor or Senate race on the ballot this year, but there are three contested primaries scheduled for May 21.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland), retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House at the end of the current term, leaves a safe Democratic seat (D+43) for which seven party members will compete. State Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Portland), a physician, is one of the leading candidates. Former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal, sister to Washington US Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Seattle), and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales also appear to be viable contenders. The winner of this plurality primary will take the seat in November.

In the 5th District, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) seeks a second term. She defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner two years ago but may see a different opponent this year. While McLeod-Skinner is running again, the Democratic establishment, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), is instead lining up behind state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), which likely gives her the inside track toward the nomination. In a seat rated R+3, this will become a national congressional race in the general election.

The 6th District is the new seat that Oregon earned in the 2020 national reapportionment. Drawn as a D+7 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, the first ever congressional race within the new domain finished in a closer manner. Then-state Rep. Andrea Salinas (D) captured the seat with a 50-48 percent victory margin over Republican businessman Mike Erickson.

While Rep. Salinas faces only minor primary competition, the Republican field is more crowded. Erickson returns but will face 2022 gubernatorial candidate David Burch and Dundee Mayor David Russ in the battle for the party nomination. In a presidential year with President Joe Biden expected to post a strong double-digit Oregon victory, Rep. Salinas has a much better chance of posting a wider margin in the ’24 congressional race.

Tightening Senate Race in Arizona; Hogan Building Lead in Maryland; Tight Margins in California Vote Tallies; Bost Wins Tight Primary

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 21, 2024

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) holds a narrow lead in Arizona polling.

Arizona: Emerson College Shows a Tightening Race — Emerson College released a new two-way poll of the Arizona Senate race, their first since Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) announced she would not seek re-election. The survey (March 12-15; 1,000 registered Arizona voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects the new Arizona Senate race dropping to within the polling margin of error between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. The ballot test finds Gallego holding a 44-40 percent lead, which is approaching the toss-up realm.

Within the same polling sample, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden, 48-44 percent, which is bad news obviously for Biden, but also for Lake. With the data showing Trump leading the Republican ticket in the Grand Canyon State, her standing trails him by a full eight percentage points.

While Emerson tested only Biden and Trump and did not include the independent or third party candidates, they did push the undecided respondents to make a choice. When doing so, Trump would lead the aggregate count 52-48 percent, suggesting the undecideds, which are good prospects to support one of the minor candidates, would break evenly between the two men.

Rep. Gallego has an edge among the youngest and the oldest respondents in the sample. He is also rather surprisingly favored, 43-38 percent, among those who said the economy is their top issue. Lake is favored by a whopping 77-12 percent margin among those who are most concerned about the southern border.

Maryland: Ex-Gov. Hogan Building Lead — The University of Maryland, partnering with the Washington Post, released a new survey of the Maryland Senate race (March 5-12; 1,004 registered Maryland voters; live interview & text) that shows former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan building a strong lead in this most Democratic of states. According to the ballot test, Hogan leads US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) 47-39 percent, while his lead would expand to 50-36 percent if Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) were his general election opponent.

Hogan also enjoys an extremely positive 64:23 percent favorability index, while Rep. Trone scores 33:21 percent favorable to unfavorable, and Alsobrooks records a 26:15 percent ratio. Despite Trone so far outspending Alsobrooks by a 12:1 ratio ($24 million to $2 million), he leads the Democratic primary ballot test only 34-27 percent according to this survey.

Considering the lopsided spending amount, the ballot test suggests that Rep. Trone is at least slightly underperforming as a statewide candidate.

House

California: Two-Vote Margin; Another Race in Doubt — While the California vote totals are still not complete from the March 5 Super Tuesday primary, the battle for second qualifying position in the open 16th Congressional District continues to get tighter and tighter. The latest vote iteration, with an estimated 400-plus votes remaining to count, is literally down to a two-vote margin.

State Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) now leads San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D), 30,211 to 30,209. It is obvious we will see a recount when all the votes are finally tabulated. The Secretary of State has 22 more days to certify the election, and it is likely the tabulation process for this race will consume every bit of the allowable time. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has already clinched the first general election position. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring.

Another race is also uncalled. Forty-fifth District Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) has easily clinched the first qualifying position with just under 55 percent of the aggregate jungle primary vote. Attorney Derek Tran (D) has run in second place during the entire counting period, but he now leads Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) by only a 327-vote margin and the end result is now in doubt. An estimated 2,500 ballots remain to be counted.

IL-12: Rep. Bost Wins Close Primary Battle — It took well into a second day of counting, but Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro) successfully won renomination in his southern Illinois congressional district. His opponent, 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey, issued a statement conceding defeat but saying his campaign “made a statement.” The current unofficial tally shows Rep. Bost capturing 51.4 percent of the vote as compared to Bailey’s 48.6 percent, translating to a vote spread of 2,590 from a turnout of over 94,000 individuals. A smattering of ballots will soon be added to the final tally.

The district featured wide swings, as both candidates typically won their respective counties by landslide proportions. Both men won 17 of the district’s 34 counties.

Rosendale Out, Retired Navy SEAL Sheehy In; Hogan Doing Well in MD; NY Redistricting Commission Approves Map; Ashcroft Leads in Missouri

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 19, 2024

Senate

Retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy

Montana: Rosendale’s Quick Exit — After months of speculation as to whether US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) would enter the Montana US Senate race culminating with his declaration of candidacy on February 9th, we now see a quick end.

Late last week, Rosendale announced that he will not file for the Senate, saying in a released statement that he has “been forced to calculate what my chances of success would be with Trump supporting my opponent.” On the day of Rosendale’s Senate announcement, former President Donald Trump issued his endorsement of aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Rosendale indicated he will take time to ponder his next political step.

Maryland: Hogan Doing Well in New Poll — A release from Emerson College (Feb. 12-13; 1,000 registered Maryland voters; 543 likely Democratic primary voters; 246 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) tied with US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), who has already spent $23 million in attempting to win the Democratic Party nomination, at 42 percent apiece. He would lead Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 44-37 percent, if she were to become the Democratic nominee.

What is particularly surprising and may well not hold up once the campaign begins in earnest, is Hogan’s standing among Independent voters and even Democrats. If Trone were his general election opponent, Hogan would lead among Independents and rather stunningly attracts approximately one-quarter of Democratic voters. With Alsobrooks as his opponent, Hogan’s numbers are much better. Within this pairing, he would lead among Independents 43-18 percent, while converting 31 percent of Democratic voters.

House

New York: Redistricting Commission Approves Cong Map — The New York Independent Redistricting Commission, on a vote of 9-1, late last week adopted a new congressional map, but it looks very much like the current court-drawn plan. It appears the commissioners adopted a “least change” model in that the early reported change seems to adversely affect Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), at least slightly, but conversely helps adjacent Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook). Much more will be known about the map when statisticians delve into the partisan patterns of the new boundaries.

The “independent” commission is not so independent. The legislature must now approve the commission map and it is uncertain whether large Democratic majorities in both houses will accept a “least change” map.

SC-6: Rep. Clyburn Steps Down from Leadership Post — In a written press release, US Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) announced that he will be resigning his leadership position as Assistant to the Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries. While stepping down from the Democratic Leadership tree, the 83-year-old veteran House member, who is completing his 16th term in Congress, additionally said that he will seek re-election to his Columbia anchored seat in the South Carolina delegation. News reports suggest that Colorado Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is a strong candidate to replace Clyburn as Minority Leader Jeffries’ (D-NY) Assistant.

Governor

Missouri: Ashcroft Continues to Lead — Republican polling firm ARW Strategies conducted a survey of the Missouri GOP electorate (Feb. 5-7; 611 likely Missouri Republican primary voters) and found Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft, son of former US senator and US Attorney General John Ashcroft continuing to lead the open gubernatorial field. According to the ARW results, Ashcroft leads Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel (R-Weldon Spring) by a 36-13-13 percent margin. The findings are consistent with other previously conducted polls.

This survey, however, skews male (51.1 percent) and to those 65 years of age and older. This age demographic represents only 16 percent of the Missouri at-large population, but 46 percent in this particular poll. Incumbent Gov. Mike Parson (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Hogan & Rosendale for Senate;
Montana Rep. Gallagher to Retire;
Final Nevada Primary, Caucus Results

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 12, 2024

Candidate announcements and a surprise retirement made Friday a very interesting political day even outside of the presidential-level happenings.

Maryland

Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R)

Candidate Filing Closed — Maryland 2024 candidate filing closed on Friday and, after saying he would not run for Senate, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan (R) unexpectedly agreed to seek the GOP nomination. Despite leaving office with the highest approval rating of any Maryland governor after eight years, Hogan will still be in an underdog position for the general election in heavily Democratic Maryland during a presidential year.

The Democratic nominee will be either US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) or Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. The May 14 primary will likely produce a close result. Trone, the founder of the Total Beverage chain store, has already spent $23 million on his Senate campaign through the end of 2023, all but $427,000 from his own pocket.

Knowing that she cannot match his virtually unlimited personal war chest, Alsobrooks had raised just over $5 million for her campaign, and had more than $3 million in her campaign treasury at the end of 2023. She will obviously stockpile as much money as she can for the final month in hopes of coming close to parity with Trone in late campaign advertising.

The latest released internal polling from the Trone campaign (Hickman Analytics; Jan. 18-24; 1,500 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters) finds the congressman leading Alsobrooks 45-34 percent. The poll shows his ads are working, since Hickman’s November survey (Nov. 27-30; 1,000 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters) staked Trone to a 41-34 percent advantage.

Considering her support within the African American community and its strength in the Democratic primary, particularly in her home county of Prince George’s and Baltimore, this primary campaign is far from over regardless of Trone’s insurmountable financial edge.

For Hogan, despite winning two terms as governor, his task to win a federal election in Maryland is daunting. The last Republican to win a Senate race here was then-two term incumbent Charles Mathias back in 1980.

Hogan, an avowed “Never Trumper,” has clearly distanced himself from the former president, but that will be of only marginal assistance. Donald Trump is extremely unpopular in Maryland, and Hogan will be forced to share a ballot with him in November. Therefore, Trump as the Republican presidential nominee will negatively affect the GOP general election turnout model.

Though Hogan will run a competitive race and certainly do better than any Republican at least since Michael Steele pulled to within the 54-44 percent margin that first elected current Sen.Ben Cardin (D) in 2006, the eventual Democratic nominee must still be rated as the favorite to win in November.

Montana

Rosendale to Run — In a move that has been anticipated for well over a year, US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) announced on Friday that he will run for the Senate later this year.

Immediately after the announcement, former President Donald Trump endorsed Rosendale’s Republican primary opponent, aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, as have Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), and Montana US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish). In 2018, Rep. Rosendale, then the state auditor, challenged Sen. Jon Tester (D) and lost 50-47 percent.

Campaigning for a different office is nothing new for Rosendale. Since 2010, he has run for state House of Representatives, state Senate, US House (at-large), state auditor, US Senate, US House (at-large), and US House (District 2), and won five of the seven campaigns. His move into the Senate race opens the 2nd District to what will be a crowded Republican primary.
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Is RFK Jr. Going Libertarian? Conflicting Presidential Polling; Trone Expands Lead in Maryland; Special Election Ad Spending in NY

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 2, 2024

President

Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr., currently running as an Independent general election candidate, switch to the Libertarian Party?

RFK Jr.: Flirting with Libertarian Party — Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Libertarian Party leaders confirm they are discussing the possibility of Kennedy becoming the party’s presidential nominee. They are likely still a long way from coming to an agreement, though, mostly because some of Kennedy’s major issue positions such as climate change and gun control do not align with the party leadership; the move, however, makes practical sense for both entities.

First, being the Libertarian Party nominee would give Kennedy ballot access in all 50 states, something that is difficult for any Independent to obtain. The Libertarian Party was the only non-Democratic or Republican entity to achieve universal ballot status in 2020 (Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen appeared on the Libertarian line in 48 states and the District of Columbia; in Alabama and Tennessee, she appeared as an Independent), and they again would with Kennedy as their nominee.

Additionally, featuring RFK Jr. as their candidate, it is highly likely that the Libertarian Party would attract its highest historical number of votes. This is important for the organization’s future because many states base future party status upon performance in the national election.

Morning Consult/Bloomberg/Quinnipiac Polls: Any Given Poll — It’s a common saying in the NFL that “on any given Sunday any team can beat another.” A similar phrase appears applicable in political polling, as well. On almost any given day, we can find polls that disagree over outcome even though conducted during the same time period. Wednesday’s Morning Consult/Bloomberg News and Quinnipiac University are good examples.

The day began with Morning Consult/Bloomberg releasing their new regional survey series (Jan. 16-22; 4,596 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; online; part of regular tracking), which finds former President Donald Trump leading in all of the key swing states with margins between three (Arizona, Pennsylvania) at 10 percentage points (North Carolina). Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin each posted five-point Trump margins, while Georgia and Nevada were closer to the North Carolina number at plus-eight. Turning to their national track, MC/Bloomberg posted Trump to a two-point advantage over President Joe Biden in the head-to-head ballot test.

Yet in the Quinnipiac University release, a poll that was in the field within a similar same time frame as MC/Bloomberg, though earlier in January (Jan. 4-8; 1,680 US registered voters; live interview), President Biden posted his biggest national popular vote lead of any recent poll, 50-44 percent. When the Independent and minor party candidates were added in, such as RFK Jr., for example, the Biden edge shrinks to just two percentage points, which is much more in line with other pollsters.

Senate

Maryland: Rep. Trone Expands Lead — A new internal Hickman Analytics poll for the David Trone for Senate campaign (Jan. 18-24; 1,500 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) sees Trone, the 6th District Congressman, leading Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks by a 45-34 percent margin in the open Democratic US Senate primary. The question, however, is for how long? The poll contained an over-sample of African Americans and females to emphasize the groups with which Rep. Trone is weakest.

Though the early numbers look good for the congressman, it must be understood that his campaign has spent well over $15 million to date, and $7 million alone just since November according to the Inside Elections publication. Trone began advertising a year before the primary election.

The Alsobrooks campaign has yet to run an ad. Since it is clear that she cannot match the congressman in an ad war with him self-financing the race from his huge personal wealth, the Alsobrooks strategists are waiting until late in the contest to unleash their own ad buys. She will be competitive as we get closer to the May 14th primary, so despite Trone’s polling and resource lead, this primary battle is far from over.

House

NY-3: Special Election Ad Spending Update — The Daily Kos Elections and AdImpact organizations charted the spending in the special congressional election to replace expelled Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) as we approach the Feb. 13 election. According to their data, the overall Democratic operation is outspending the encompassing Republican effort by a large amount, $9.6 million to $5.7 million. The two candidates are former US Rep. Tom Suozzi for the Democrats, and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip for the GOP.

The Congressional Leadership Fund, however, is coming in late to help even the score. They have reserved $2.6 million in television and digital ads to bring the final days spending into parity. In terms of spending booked for the final two weeks, the Democratic advantage narrows to $2.8 to $2.44 million.