Category Archives: House

Watching Close Congressional Races

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Colorado Primary Results:
Sen. Bennet & Rep. DeGette Lose

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Colorado

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

What once appeared as a virtual sure bet for Sen. Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat last night, and the result wasn’t close; and with pre-election polling trends running against 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loss statistic.

Sen. Bennet will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career. His 2028 situation, should he choose to seek re-election as Senator, would certainly make him more vulnerable in a new Democratic primary, however.

The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44 percent, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet, who still had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.

Weiser, who won two statewide races as Attorney General but was term-limited in 2026, has a compelling story in that his mother was born in a concentration camp during WWII because his grandmother was being held as a prisoner of the Nazi regime. Furthermore, with a political party moving closer toward the Palestinian coalition and away from Israel, Weiser highlighted his Jewish heritage and still won going away. Therefore, this incumbent defeat is not like most of the others we’ve seen this year but is another indication that perceived establishment candidates are doing poorly.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)

In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 51-42 percent defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. Polling showed DeGette trailing, and she qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes at the 1st District nominating convention. Each clue revealed Rep. DeGette’s weakness in campaigning for renomination. Conversely, at the district nominating convention, Kiros attracted almost 70 percent of the delegate votes.

There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race who fails to claim his party’s nomination.

Of the seven, five – now including DeGette – are Democrats. The others are Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). The Republicans are Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).

Democratic Socialists are responsible for three of the defeats: Reps. DeGette, Goldman, and Espaillat.

Al Green attempts to blame his loss on a new redistricting map, but the overwhelming majority of the new 18th District constituency carried over from his own district, suggesting the new district boundaries were not the principal reason for his losing to recently elected Congressman Christian Menefee, 68-32 percent.

In the case of freshman Rep. Johnson, redistricting was a major factor in her losing to former Congressman Colin Allred, since her 32nd District was transformed into a Republican seat, thus forcing her to seek re-election in the newly drawn 33rd District.

On the Republican side, Rep. Crenshaw’s loss in his Harris County-anchored CD began the string of incumbent losses. Rep. Massie, likely the most well-known nationally of the defeated Representatives, lost because of his feud with President Trump; this was also the case with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Being tabbed by Trump as the most anti-Trump Republican Congressman led to Massie suffering a 55-45 percent loss in a district that he had won seven times.

Turning back to Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign, but with only a 55-45 percent margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.

In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero, who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.

In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Thornton). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34 percent over former state Rep. Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.

Major Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Three more state primaries and one runoff are on today’s political calendar, featuring several major contests. Primary voters in Maryland, New York, and Utah will cast their final ballots for nomination, while South Carolina Republicans choose their gubernatorial and 1st District congressional nominees in runoff elections.

Maryland

Republicans will select a candidate to challenge Gov. Wes Moore (D), though the GOP winner will enter November as a severe underdog.

Several congressional races are drawing attention. All seven Maryland US House incumbents seeking re‑election face primary challengers, though five of those contests appear noncompetitive.

The marquee race is in the state’s western 6th District, where former Congressman David Trone (D), who vacated the seat in 2024 for an unsuccessful Senate bid, now seeks to reclaim it from his successor, Rep. April McClain Delaney (D‑Potomac). Trone, the billionaire founder of Total Wine & More, has spent roughly $30 million on the race, while Delaney has countered with nearly $9 million. Polling has been inconsistent, though Delaney appears to have a slight edge.

In Baltimore, City Councilman Mark Conway is challenging veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D‑Baltimore), one of several races nationwide where younger Democrats are raising age and vitality concerns about long‑serving incumbents. Rep. Mfume, who is 77 years old, is again favored to prevail.

Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D‑Mechanicsville) retirement after 45 years of congressional service has triggered a crowded Democratic primary in the safely blue 5th District, with 23 candidates competing.

Establishment figures including Rep. Hoyer, Gov. Moore, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks have endorsed state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D‑Bowie), though he has been outspent by healthcare company executive Quincy Bareebe and former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn. Other notable contenders include state Sen. Arthur Ellis (D-Charles County) and former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, though neither appears to have gained enough momentum to finish first.

New York

With the gubernatorial nominations effectively settled – Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) will easily secure their primaries tonight – the focus shifts to several competitive congressional races.

Two incumbents are on the political hot seat tonight and upsets are possible.

In Brooklyn’s 7th District, four Democrats are vying to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D), serving her 17th term. Three elected officials: Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, and NYC Councilwoman Julie Won, are the leading contenders. New York’s plurality election system means tonight’s vote will decide the nominees regardless of percentage attained.

In the 10th District, former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, running as the Democratic Socialist candidate with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani along with their associated organizations, is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman (D). Polling shows that Rep. Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss company fortune, is significantly trailing despite outspending Lander 4:1. Lander scoring an upset victory is very possible.

The 12th District, vacated by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D‑NYC), features eight Democrats competing for the politically safe CD. Four major contenders: attorney George Conway, Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, and John “Jack” Bouvier Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, are locked in a competitive race. Early polling showed Bores and Lasher trading the lead, but no recent data has been released.

In the 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D‑Harlem) faces his toughest challenge since winning his initial congressional primary in 2016. Community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier has built a strong ground operation and performed well in polling. Two June surveys showed Espaillat at 35 percent support, and one (Data for Progress, June 3-9; 319 likely NY-13 Democratic primary voters) even had Chevalier leading 39–35 percent; therefore, we see another incumbent upset possibility.

In Upstate District 17, a key November battleground, five Democrats are competing to challenge two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River). Former National Security Council official Cait Conley has led in recent polling and is favored to clinch victory tonight.

Utah

Redistricting has significantly reshaped Utah’s congressional map, creating a new Salt Lake City-anchored Democratic seat. Four Democrats are competing, with former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Nate Blouin (D‑Salt Lake City) emerging as the top contenders. Early polling suggested Rep. McAdams held a significant advantage. McAdams is favored to win tonight, which will pave his return to Congress.

Despite radical changes to district boundaries, GOP Reps. Blake Moore (R‑Salt Lake City), Celeste Maloy (R‑Cedar City), and Mike Kennedy (R‑Alpine) are expected to win renomination. Rep. Kennedy is unopposed in the new 4th District despite the seat being completely different from the 3rd District he won in 2024. Rep. Burgess Owens (R‑Salt Lake City) opted to retire, thus avoiding a paired Republican primary for Reps. Maloy or Kennedy.

South Carolina

In the Republican gubernatorial runoff today, four‑term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), is likely to score a big victory. Several polls show him holding substantial leads, and President Trump has just issued a co‑endorsement after previously backing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Wilson is expected to win easily this evening and claim the Governorship in November.

In the open 1st District, a close race is expected between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R‑Daniel Island), who finished first and second in the June 9 primary. The winner will be a strong favorite in November. Incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston) vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor.

Maine: Ranked Choice Voting
System Changes Outcomes

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 22, 2026

Ranked Choice Voting

Ten days after Maine’s June 9th primary, the Secretary of State’s office finally released the results of the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulations, and the post‑election redistribution altered the final outcome in two major races.

(Click on image to see example larger.)

Under Maine’s RCV system, the process activates when no candidate receives a majority of first‑choice votes. Once it is determined that the leading candidate holds only a plurality, the last‑place finisher is eliminated, and that candidate’s next available rankings are then added to the aggregate totals. This elimination‑and‑redistribution cycle continues until only two candidates remain, at which point the final round determines the official result.

Maine uses RCV only in primaries and federal elections. The state Supreme Court has ruled that the Maine Constitution recognizes plurality winners in state general elections, meaning RCV cannot be applied there. The court also held that it lacks jurisdiction over party‑run primaries and federal contests, so it cannot block RCV in those elections.

In the open Governor’s race, former state Health Director Nirav Shah led the Democratic primary in the initial count but ultimately lost in the RCV rounds. The official Democratic nominee is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D‑North Haven/Portland).

Although Pingree trailed Dr. Shah 27-23 percent in first‑choice votes, she gained steadily through second and third choice rankings. In the fourth and final round – after the field had narrowed to those two – she prevailed 56-44 percent.

Businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I‑ME), was the first candidate eliminated, and his votes were redistributed according to the voters’ alternate rankings.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows was eliminated next, and the addition of her supporters’ ranked choices pushed Pingree ahead of Shah for the first time, by an adjusted margin of 2,990 votes. After former state Senate President Troy Jackson was eliminated, the fourth round matched Pingree against Shah, producing the final outcome.
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On the Republican side, RCV did not alter the standings. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles led on election night with a 38-20-20 percent advantage over businessman Ben Midgley and attorney Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The order remained unchanged through seven RCV rounds, and Charles officially secured the nomination with a 60-40 percent final‑round margin over Midgley.

Pingree and Charles now advance to the general election, where they will also face Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committeeman, left the GOP to run as an Independent, believing he would be more competitive in a three-way race without the party designation. His presence on the ballot is expected to draw votes away from Charles, thus making Pingree a heavy favorite in November.

RCV also changed the outcome in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. On election night, state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D‑Bangor), brother of former Governor and Congressman John Baldacci, held a narrow lead. But in the second round of RCV tabulation only 546 votes separated Baldacci, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. In the third round, Dunlap overtook Baldacci and won the nomination with just over 52 percent of the adjusted vote.

Dunlap, therefore, advances to face former Gov.Paul LePage in the general election. LePage was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican‑leaning seat in the country that a Democrat currently represents: retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D‑Lewiston).

The 2026 general election is expected to be competitive. Given that LePage carried the 2nd District in all three of his gubernatorial campaigns, he enters this general election campaign as the early favorite.

A Polling Hodgepodge in MD-6

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 18, 2026

House

Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac)

Already we have seen four US House incumbents defeated for renomination, and the June 23 primaries suggest more may fall.

The four incumbents defeated so far include Republican Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX) and Thomas Massie (R‑KY). Two Democrats have also lost, though their defeats are largely attributable to redistricting: Texas Reps. Al Green (D‑Houston) and Julie Johnson (D‑Dallas) were both unseated in newly configured districts.

Next Tuesday, New York Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City), Adriano Espaillat (D-Harlem) and Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) face serious intra-party challengers, as does Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac).

Today, we look at the 6th District of Maryland, where billionaire former Congressman David Trone (D) is attempting a political comeback in the congressional district he held for three terms before losing the 2024 Senate primary. To return, he would have to defeat the woman who replaced him, freshman Rep. Delaney.

Polling offers no clear picture. Several surveys suggest Trone is well‑positioned, while just as many indicate he is headed for a sizable defeat. In an unusual sequence of publicly released polls, the ballot test leader has flipped in eight consecutive surveys. All were conducted by professional live interview firms that the two campaigns commissioned.

Unsurprisingly, each campaign’s polls show its own candidate ahead. The Delaney campaign’s internal surveys consistently find the Congresswoman leading by strong margins. The Trone campaign’s polls, meanwhile, show the former Congressman ahead in all four of their releases, but only by narrow spreads.

The polling firms involved, Hart Research for Delaney and Impact Research plus the Global Strategy Group for Trone, are well‑established, highly experienced, and have conducted surveys for presidential campaigns. Yet their results in this race, while internally consistent, diverge sharply from one another.

The latest pair of polls again shows opposite outcomes. Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; June 2-4; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) places Rep. Delaney ahead 52-37 percent, a margin well beyond the survey’s error range and consistent with their March, April, and May findings.

In contrast, the Global Strategy Group (for the Trone campaign; June 8-11; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) shows Trone holding a slight 43-40 percent edge, also in line with previous Impact Research results.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, at least one of these veteran polling firms will have missed the race multiple times by a large margin.

Trone, the founder of the Total Wine & More beverage chain, again is spending heavily, this time an estimated $25 million of his own money. Rep. Delaney has countered with more than $8 million in campaign expenditures according to the June 3 pre-primary Federal Election Commission financial disclosure filing.

Maryland’s 6th District contains four counties in the state’s western panhandle tucked between Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and about a quarter of Montgomery County. It is the latter entity that tilts the district toward the Democrats.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the MD-6 partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.0R, making it the most competitive district in the state. In federal races, however, the district’s electorate clearly favors Democrats. MD-6 voters backed the Democratic nominee over President Trump in both recent presidential elections: Kamala Harris won 51.6 – 45.8 percent in 2024, and President Biden carried the seat 53.9 – 44.1 percent in 2020.

Former Rep. Trone averaged 57.5 percent of the vote in his three victorious elections, while Rep. Delaney scored a 53 percent win in her lone congressional contest.

In any event, it appears evident that one of these two candidates is in for a surprise on Tuesday night.