Category Archives: House

Carolina’s Critical Campaigns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.

NC-Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race; he dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.

Since the March 3 primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.

North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.

Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

NC-1

North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.

In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48 percent. Despite Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.

The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by 10-plus points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.

A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (Sept. 8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43 percent, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (June 22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41 percent spread.

The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.

NC-11

The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.

Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised more than $2 million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.

NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Ager leads just 47-44 percent over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.

Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.

NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.

North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.

California’s Double D’s

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 14, 2026

To see a larger, interactive map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

While national attention is centered on US House races that will determine majority control, six competitive California campaigns are tightly contested and involve vulnerable incumbents, yet none will change the national partisan division.

These are the districts where candidates of the same party advanced to the general election under California’s top‑two primary system. Five of the six feature Democratic intra‑party battles, and together they form an important part of the Golden State’s political landscape.

California’s top‑two qualifying system places all candidates on a single primary ballot, with the two highest finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote share, moving on to November. This year, eight such intra‑party contests emerged, and six of them represent major, fully engaged campaigns.

Today, we examine three of the most intriguing of these races.

CA-4

Veteran Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) is one of several California House members forced into a double‑ Democratic general election this year. Venture capitalist Eric Jones has established himself as a serious challenger, raising and self‑funding more than $8.3 million through the June 30 Federal Election Commission reporting period, and more since.

In the top‑two primary, Rep. Thompson led with 41 percent of the vote, while Jones finished second with 22.2 percent in a nine‑candidate field. The remaining 36.8 percent was divided among six Republicans and one No Party Preference contender.

It is this latter bloc – predominantly Republican voters in a district that Dave’s Redistricting App analysts estimate as having a 42.4 percent Republican lean – that will likely determine which Democrat prevails in November. In the June 2 primary, Jones attracted 35.2 percent of all voters who selected a Democratic candidate. If he can maintain that level of Democratic support while also winning an overwhelming share of Republican voters, he could position himself for an upset.

So far, however, his campaign messaging shows little inclination toward courting Republican support. Because most of the GOP vote is geographically concentrated in the northern part of the 4th District, a carefully targeted strategy could allow a Thompson opponent to navigate an ideological tightrope.

Whether the Jones campaign will adjust its approach to appeal to Republican voters seeking an alternative to Thompson remains uncertain. A significant strategic shift would be required for Jones to close the gap with the incumbent – but if undertaken, a plausible victory path could emerge.

CA-7

In the Sacramento-anchored 7th District, veteran Rep. Doris Matsui finished behind Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang in the June qualifying election, producing another double Democratic general election.

The primary was close: Councilwoman Vang led with 31.2 percent to Rep. Matsui’s 29.0 percent. Two additional Democrats combined for 2.7 percent, while two Republican candidates drew a substantial 37 percent of the vote. Any incumbent receiving only 29 percent in a primary is clearly showing vulnerability, underscoring the highly competitive general election campaign now unfolding.

To win, Matsui will need to move toward the ideological center and capture a large share of Republican voters. Vang, a Democratic Socialists of America candidate, has consolidated the party’s hard‑left base and is advancing the familiar argument that Matsui has served too long. Rep. Matsui, now 82, first entered Congress in 2005 after succeeding her late husband, Rep. Bob Matsui, who held the seat beginning in 1979.

Given the initial vote breakdown and Matsui’s uneven performance in a recent televised debate, this race shapes up as a contest with genuine upset potential.

CA-34

Veteran Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) again faces a Democratic opponent in the general election, a familiar dynamic in the 34th District. The 2026 contest marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which two Democrats have advanced from the top‑two primary.

In the previous three elections, Rep. Gomez defeated the same challenger, attorney David Kim, who specializes in music licensing and immigration cases. This year, however, his opponent is anthropologist Angela Gonzales‑Torres.

In the primary, Gomez finished ahead of Gonzales‑Torres, 46.0 percent to 30.7 percent. Yet a new survey casts the general election in a different light. A just‑completed Upswing Research poll (Sept. 1-5; 403 likely CA‑34 voters) shows Gonzales‑Torres leading Gomez 41-38 percent.

Compounding the challenge for the incumbent, Rep. Gomez is now under a House Ethics Committee investigation for “alleged sexual contact with a House staffer,” a development that has generated significant negative publicity and is likely a major contributor to his recent polling deficit.

Congressman Gomez has averaged only 53.3 percent in his three general election victories over Kim, underscoring that this district routinely produces competitive intra‑party races. Given the latest polling and the ethics investigation, this contest is clearly one to watch.

And, as is typical in California, the state’s historically slow vote‑counting process means that final totals in this and other close races may take weeks to be fully known.

Gov. McKee Loses in Rhode Island;
More Missouri Redistricting Chaos

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 10, 2026

Rhode Island

Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Dan McKee

As polling had been forecasting for months, Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Dan McKee last night became the first Ocean State chief executive in 30 years to lose renomination. He fell to former CVS corporation executive Helena Foulkes by a landslide 62-38 percent margin in the state’s primary election.

Gov. McKee is the 14th incumbent and first Governor to lose renomination in the current election cycle. A total of 11 House members along with two Senators failed to win their party primary. The defeats are bipartisan as eight Democrats and six Republicans lost to intra-party opponents.

Gov. McKee had trailed badly throughout the year. Many observers point to the prolonged construction on Providence’s Washington Bridge, a major Interstate I-195 artery linking the capital city to East Providence. With more than 60 percent of Rhode Island’s population living in Providence County, the closure of the westbound lanes at the end of 2023 – engineers warned of structural concerns – became a persistent political liability. The Governor’s office estimates the project still won’t be completed until 2028.

Lt. Gov. Dan McKee ascended to the governorship in 2021 when then‑Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) resigned to become US Commerce Secretary in the Biden Administration. The following year, McKee narrowly won a three‑way Democratic primary, defeating Foulkes and then-Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea with a 33-30-26 percent split.

Four years later, the Governor couldn’t increase his support base beyond his initial victory percentage. His political standing deteriorated to the point that even the Rhode Island Democratic Party declined to endorse its own incumbent.

Foulkes, the niece of former Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd (D), will now have an easy run in the general election in a state where Democrats dominate. The Republican gubernatorial primary has still not been called as we see a close race between trade association executive Aaron Guckian and magazine publisher Elaine Pelino.

In the Senate race, five‑term incumbent Jack Reed scored another landslide renomination victory, taking 77 percent against two under‑funded Democratic challengers. The Senator is well positioned to win a sixth term in November.

Both of Rhode Island’s US House members, Reps. Gabe Amo (D‑Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D‑Cranston), ran unopposed for renomination and are heavy favorites in the general election.

The 2026 primary season concludes next Tuesday in Delaware.

Missouri

Just when it appeared that Missouri’s congressional redistricting saga had finally reached its conclusion – after US Supreme Court Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh denied the state’s appeal of a Missouri Supreme Court ruling disqualifying the new Republican map – another chapter is developing.

Justice Kavanaugh, who administers emergency matters for the 8th Circuit, ruled that the ballot initiative to approve or overturn the congressional map may appear on the November ballot. Under Missouri procedure, any qualified initiative that could alter a proposed law suspends that law until voters decide its fate; therefore, the 2026 congressional map is suspended.

Complicating matters further, US District Judge Stephen Clark issued a separate ruling barring the state from reverting to the 2022 map.

His decision came in response to a lawsuit filed by Rep. Bob Onder (R-Augusta) and state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City), who argued that voters participating in the Aug. 4 primary under the new map would be disenfranchised if district lines were changed afterward. Judge Clark agreed with the plaintiffs’ argument and blocked the state from reinstating the 2022 boundaries.

Onder represents Missouri’s 3rd District, and Brattin is the Republican nominee in the 5th District – the seat Republicans expect to flip under the 2026 map. If the 2022 map were to be restored, the 5th District would likely revert to veteran Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City).

Election officials now face conflicting directives. The Missouri Supreme Court insists the 2022 map must be used, while the federal ruling states that only the 2026 map is permissible.

The organization People Not Politicians, which spearheaded the ballot initiative, immediately appealed to the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, but the appellate court has declined to act on the motion. As a result, the dispute is likely to return to Justice Kavanaugh.

The conflict must be resolved before Sept. 19, the deadline for Missouri to deliver ballots to overseas voters under federal law.

Two Key Races Develop in NH Primary; Missouri Map Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

New Hampshire

Granite State voters chose their nominees last night, and two contests important to the national political landscape in November are now set.

In the Senate race, as expected, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) easily won their respective primaries and will meet in a shortened general election campaign. Rep. Pappas defeated scientist and far left activist Karishma Manzur, 65-33 percent, a result roughly in line with pre election polling.

Sununu posted an even larger victory over former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Scott Brown, 68-27 percent in the Republican primary.

Early general election polling suggests a competitive race. Though Democrats have held a consistent advantage in New Hampshire for much of this century, the Sununu family has also performed strongly statewide; John Sununu’s brother, Chris Sununu (R), for example, won four consecutive two year gubernatorial terms before retiring in 2024.

In the state’s closely watched 1st Congressional District, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – appears to have eked out a narrow 37-35 percent victory with several thousand ballots still outstanding. While the remaining votes could theoretically shift the outcome, it would be difficult for former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan to overcome Shaheen’s advantage. The tight margin is notable: the Shaheen name has been a fixture in New Hampshire politics for decades, so a narrow win in a Democratic primary represents an under performance relative to historical expectations.

On the Republican side, automobile business owner Anthony DiLorenzo scored a decisive victory, winning a majority of the vote and defeating former New Hampshire Republican Party Vice Chair Hollie Neveletsky by a 52-26 percent spread.

Although the 1st District has long been considered competitive, Rep. Pappas secured the seat for the Democrats through four consecutive terms. Prior to Pappas first winning here in 2018, the last time the 1st District electorate re-elected an incumbent came in 2004. Based upon the most recent electoral trends, Stefany Shaheen begins the general election with a substantial advantage.

In the 2nd District, the expected rematch materialized: Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams each won easy primary victories. Rep. Goodlander enters November as the clear favorite to retain the seat.

The gubernatorial primaries also unfolded without suspense. Gov. Kelly Ayotte won 91 percent of the vote in the Republican contest, while former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Ayotte begins the general election as the favorite to secure a second two-year term.

Statewide primary turnout, driven largely by strong participation in the 1st District, clearly favored Democrats. Approximately 57 percent of all ballots cast yesterday were in the Democratic primary.

Missouri

In an emergency ruling issued due to the compressed election timetable, Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who serves as the presiding justice for both the 6th and 8th Circuits, encompassing Michigan and Missouri, yesterday rejected Missouri’s appeal of a state Supreme Court decision disqualifying the new congressional map.

Justice Kavanaugh had previously ruled on a Michigan case that closely resembled the Missouri situation: in both states, ballot initiatives appeared to meet the statutory requirements for ballot placement, but election officials denied certification.

The two rulings, however, appeared inconsistent. Justice Kavanaugh declined to allow the Americans for Citizen Voting organization’s proof of citizenship measure onto the Michigan ballot yet permitted the Missouri initiative – seeking voter approval or rejection of the state’s new congressional map – to proceed. In both instances, he provided no explanation for his decisions.

The final outcome leaves the new 2026 Missouri map disqualified and reinstates the 2022 congressional boundaries. As a result, Republicans lose the opportunity to convert the Kansas City-anchored 5th District. Because the 2026 congressional nominees were chosen under the now invalidated map, the state must determine how to select nominees under the restored 2022 lines. Complicating matters further, it remains unclear which state official or entity has the authority to make such determinations.

With statutory deadlines rapidly approaching, Missouri faces significant time pressure to comply with its election laws, meaning nomination decisions will need to be made quickly.

Markey Wins Big; Neal, Lynch Tighter

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 2, 2026

Last night’s Massachusetts primary resulted in each incumbent prevailing, but not all were landslide victories.

Senate

Polling accurately anticipated the outcome of the Bay State’s Senate primary, as veteran incumbent Ed Markey easily defeated Rep. Seth Moulton (D‑Salem) by a 65-35 percent margin. Though not all 351 municipalities had reported by late Tuesday night, returns from roughly 280 communities showed Moulton carrying only nine, with six of them coming within his 6th Congressional District.

Rep. Moulton’s decision to run for the Senate had been questioned by many political observers, since Sen. Markey did not appear vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. He demonstrated that strength six years ago when he defeated then‑Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, 55-45 percent, overcoming a member of the Kennedy family in their home state and within their own party.

The six‑term Congressman attempted to frame the race around age and longevity. Sen. Markey is 80 years old and has held elective office continuously since first winning a seat in the Massachusetts House of Representatives back in 1972. In the end, the Moulton attack line failed to gain traction.

Moulton will leave Congress when his term ends in January. Sen. Markey now heads into the general election with a prohibitive advantage over attorney John Deaton, who was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Governor

Incumbent Gov. Maura Healey was unopposed in yesterday’s Democratic primary, and, as expected, former healthcare company executive Mike Minogue won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman and retired Marine Corps veteran Brian Shortsleeve by a commanding 76-24 percent margin.

Minogue will be a credible Republican contender against Gov. Healey, but his prospects remain weak in a state that is quintessentially Democratic. Turnout underscores the challenge: roughly 275,000 voters participated in the Republican primary, compared with more than 900,000 on the Democratic side. While Gov. Healey enters November as a heavy favorite, Minogue is positioned to offer voters a viable alternative.

House

While several members of Massachusetts’ all‑Democratic US House delegation faced primary challengers, only one race appeared genuinely competitive heading into election day. In the end, a second contest proved unexpectedly close.

The surprise came in the 1st District, where veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D‑Springfield) defeated educator Jeromie Whalen by a narrower‑than‑expected 54-46 percent margin, remarkably tight given the campaign’s extreme spending disparity. Through the pre‑primary reporting period ending Aug. 12, Rep. Neal held a $3 million to $330,000 expenditure advantage.

The challenger did not run as a Democratic Socialist but cast Congressman Neal as an entrenched establishment incumbent and claimed he is “one of the top recipients of corporate money.” This, of course, would be illegal, since direct corporate contributions to candidate committees are not allowed.

Whalen did not distinguish the difference between a corporate contribution and a corporate political action committee comprised of private sector employees voluntarily participating in the political process.

Given the number of incumbent House members in both parties who have lost renomination this year, Rep. Neal’s below‑average margin may reflect a broader frustration among various electorates toward long‑serving federal incumbents.

In the 4th District, three‑term Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D‑Newton) easily dispatched research scientist Jason Poulos, once viewed as a potentially credible challenger. Rep. Auchincloss secured renomination with a 72-28 percent victory.

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D‑Revere) also cruised, winning 74 percent of the vote against two opponents. She advances to the November general election as a prohibitive favorite in her 5th District, which carries a 68.3D – 29.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

In the open 6th District, as polling suggested, former Andover Selectman and ex‑Biden Administration official Dan Koh won the Democratic nomination with a 41-30-12-9 percent result over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D‑Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito. Koh previously lost a 2018 3rd District primary to current Rep. Lori Trahan (D‑Westford) by just 145 votes.

Finally, in the Boston‑anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D‑South Boston) defeated former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath, 57-43 percent, in a race that fundraising and polling had suggested could be competitive.

Rep. Lynch lost the Boston municipality to Roath but performed strongly in the district’s communities that lie south of the state’s capital city. The Congressman is again a prohibitive favorite in the November general election to secure a 14th term.

Next week, voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island will choose their nominees, and Delaware will close the 2026 primary season on Sept. 15.

The Democrats’ Independent Ploy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.

The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.

Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lieutenant Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the US Senate.

In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (Aug. 11-13; 500 likely Idaho voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18 percent lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (Aug. 16-19; 608 likely Idaho voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32 percent.

Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (July 28-30; 1,213 likely Idaho general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21 percent.

Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.

Montana

Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2 primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Alme.

Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.

In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.

The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Montana general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46 percent, Bodnar follows at 30 percent and Bankhead at 15 percent. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46 percent each.

The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22 percent advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.

Nebraska

Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.

Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59 percent of the vote.

South Dakota

The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.

A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (Aug. 13–17; 500 likely South Dakota general election voters) showing Bengs pulling into a 44-44 percent tie with Sen. Rounds.

It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.

Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 31, 2026

Entering the final month of the primary election calendar, three Democratic nomination contests will be decided in tomorrow’s plurality elections. Sen. Ed Markey (D) appears well positioned to defeat his intra party challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), who is risking his seat to pursue the Senate race, thereby creating an open 6th District race.

In the Boston area, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) is facing a credible Democratic challenger in his 8th District battle for renomination.

Senate

In this late stage US Senate primary, we reach the culmination point of a contest that began a year ago when six-term Rep. Moulton surprisingly announced that he would challenge veteran Sen. Ed Markey.

Six years earlier, when facing a high profile primary opponent, Sen. Markey defeated then Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by 10 points, despite beginning the race significantly behind in early polling. At the time of the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Markey had already won two statewide elections, 18 US House contests, and two races for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Heading into tomorrow’s vote, Markey has won 23 Bay State elections, translating into 52 consecutive years in public office.

Polling indicates that Markey is in strong position to win again. The University of New Hampshire Research Center’s June Bay State Poll (June 18–23; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) showed Markey leading Moulton 41-35 percent. The university’s most recent survey (Aug. 20–24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found the Senator’s advantage expanding dramatically to 63-28 percent. Three additional surveys conducted between the two UNH polls showed Markey averaging roughly 55 percent support.

Both candidates mounted serious fundraising efforts. Sen. Markey reported receipts of just over $8 million, while Rep. Moulton raised more than $6 million.

Though the race has drawn limited national attention, Moulton has campaigned aggressively and adopted more liberal positions to appeal to the party’s sizable leftwing faction.

Rep. Moulton is a credible challenger, but the Markey legacy, built over decades of electoral success, remains a formidable barrier. Based on available polling and public indicators, Sen. Markey appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.

MA-6

With Rep. Moulton running statewide, his northeast Massachusetts 6th Congressional District – stretching from Boston to the New Hampshire border and from Andover eastward to the Atlantic Ocean – is open for the first time since the 1978 election. The contest will probably produce a winner who narrowly lost a congressional primary eight years ago.

Former Andover Selectman and ex Biden Administration official Dan Koh appears to hold a discernible advantage over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D-Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and two additional candidates. According to a wrap up Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 20–23; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview), Mr. Koh holds a 35-20-12-8 percent advantage over Nguyen, Beccia, and Belsito, respectively.

In 2018, Koh lost the 3rd District Democratic primary to Lori Trahan by just 145 votes. Trahan went on to win the general election and is now unopposed for renomination to a fifth term.

MA-8

The other Massachusetts race of note is the Democratic primary challenge to 13-term Rep. Lynch in a district with a distinguished political lineage. Two US Presidents and one of the most famous House Speakers have represented this Boston-anchored seat.

Before his election to the Senate and later the Presidency, John F. Kennedy served three terms in this congressional district. After leaving the White House, President John Quincy Adams returned to Massachusetts and won eight elections to this district, serving in the House until his death in 1848. Tip O’Neill succeeded Kennedy, represented the district for 34 years, and reigned for a decade as Speaker of the House.

This year, attorney and former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath has assembled a notable support coalition that includes teachers’ unions, the Boston Globe, and his former boss, ex Gov. Deval Patrick. Roath posted a stronger fundraising total – just under $1.3 million – than Rep. Lynch, who raised $910,000, though the Congressman entered the final week with a $400,000 cash on hand advantage.

Roath touts a large grassroots operation and tomorrow will reveal whether his extensive precinct organization can produce a major upset. Rep. Lynch is not viewed as one of the more liberal members of the Massachusetts delegation, so the contest bears watching, particularly in a cycle that has already seen 11 US Representatives lose renomination. Even so, the odds still favor Rep. Lynch to prevail in his quest for a 14th term.

The New England Trio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 27, 2026

Primaries

Wrapping up primary season, we come to the New England states, where three of the final four primaries will be held early next month. Delaware is the fourth state yet to nominate candidates for the November election, and its primary will occur even later than the New England trio.

Massachusetts voters will cast ballots on Sept. 1, New Hampshire holds its primary on the 8th, and Rhode Island follows on the 9th. Delawareans won’t vote until Sept. 15, but party endorsing conventions have effectively rendered the primary a pro forma exercise.

In preparation for the upcoming contests, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center fielded polls across the three New England states to provide a snapshot of the key nomination races. The UNH Survey Center routinely conducts surveys throughout the region.

In Massachusetts, Tuesday’s primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, along with an open race in the 6th Congressional District – the seat Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is risking to challenge the Senator.

According to the UNH Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.

The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (July 30-Aug. 2; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34 percent voter preference. Crypto currency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent.

Turning to New Hampshire, the Granite State Poll shows a significant shift in the Senate campaign. The previous overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the 10 publicly released Democratic primary polls.

Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.

While the 2nd Congressional District appears set for a general election re-match between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the open 1st District features hot primaries for both parties.

Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19 percent margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the vote on Sept. 8.

On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former state party vice chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election.

Finally, in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race, Massachusetts‑based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee trailing badly against Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Foulkes leads 45-30 percent, consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on Sept. 9.

Graham Wins South Carolina Runoff; GA-13 Seat Filled

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

South Carolina

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won last night’s South Carolina special Republican US Senate runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) with 52.5 percent of the vote.

Several notable dynamics emerged from the result. First, turnout – projected at roughly 370,000 votes – exceeded the Aug. 11 special primary by about 35,000 voters. It is unusual for a runoff to draw more participation than the associated primary, thus underscoring the atypical circumstances surrounding the 2026 South Carolina Senate race.

Second, the vote split sharply along geographic lines. The state’s northern neck backed Rep. Norman, while the remainder of South Carolina voted uniformly for Sen. Graham. She carried the major population centers of the Charleston metropolitan area where she averaged approximately 62 percent of the vote, and the Columbia metro region with an average percentage of 58.

The pivotal area, however, was Myrtle Beach and the northeastern 7th Congressional District. This is where President Trump held a rally for Sen. Graham on Saturday and the district that Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) represents. Fry finished third in the Senate primary but endorsed Graham in the runoff. In Horry County, the region’s population anchor, Sen. Graham received 73 percent of the vote and posted similar margins in the surrounding counties.

Third, however, is Rep. Norman’s strength, which was concentrated in the northwestern part of the state. He carried his home 5th Congressional District, anchored in Rock Hill, and the counties along the North Carolina border. He also proved victorious in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th CD. More strikingly, Rep. Norman carried the Graham family’s home county of Pickens with 58 percent and much of the 3rd District that Lindsey Graham represented during his US House tenure.

Sen. Darline Graham now advances to the general election, where she will be favored against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won her party’s nomination outright in the regular primary on June 2.

GA-13

The runoff election to fill the late Congressman David Scott’s (D) seat for the remainder of this legislative session was also held last night in Georgia.

With turnout likely to finish below 19,000 voters, former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair defeated the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott, by a 54-46 percent margin. Scott had placed first in the initial special election in late July with 46 percent against four Democratic opponents but was forced into a secondary election because she did not obtain majority support.

Blair takes office immediately but will serve only until the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The regular cycle Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), who won the May primary outright with 56 percent against five opponents, including Blair. She is expected to win the November general election easily in a district with a 68.9D–29.5R partisan lean, according to Dave’s Redistricting App.

Blair carried only one of the district’s counties, but his 70 percent showing in his home county of Gwinnett was enough to secure the districtwide victory. Georgia’s 13th District includes portions of four Atlanta metropolitan counties east of the city.

Oklahoma

Last night’s Republican gubernatorial runoff proved to be a nail‑biter, and while a recount may still be ordered, initial results indicate that former state Budget Director and ex‑state Sen. Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond with 50.3 percent of the vote.

The lone public poll of the race – from Oklahoma‑based CHS & Associates – accurately projected a dead‑heat finish. Mazzei, who earned President Trump’s endorsement, dominated eastern Oklahoma, while AG Drummond won the state’s largest population center, Oklahoma City, with just under 52 percent. Drummond also performed well in the rural western counties.

The two essentially broke even in Tulsa County, the state’s second‑largest population hub, where the Attorney General held a lead of only 268 votes.

Mazzei, who also received the endorsement of term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson (D-Lawton), the state House Minority Leader who won her party’s June primary.

In the Democratic US Senate runoff, nurse and Democratic Socialist N’Kiyla Thomas easily defeated retired attorney and minister Jim Priest. She now faces Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), where she enters the general election as a clear underdog. The winner will succeed appointed Sena. Alan Armstrong (R), who replaced Markwayne Mullin after President Trump appointed him Homeland Security Secretary.

The Alaska Alarm Bell

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Alaska Races

While recent polls projected Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) as slightly trailing former at large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) in this year’s US Senate race, the primary vote suggests that something beyond questionable polling may be unfolding in the Last Frontier, which is normally a reliable Republican domain.

Seeing tight early Alaska polling is typical, which is usually a prelude to the Republican candidate pulling ahead in the final weeks to win comfortably. The Aug. 18 primary results, however, indicate that the Senate contest is more favorable for Democrats than other statewide races – an ominous sign for the GOP’s majority prospects.

In last week’s primary, Peltola led with 48.1 percent of the vote compared to Sen. Sullivan’s 42.7 percent, a margin between the two of 7,144 votes. Under Alaska’s top four jungle primary, the four highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation or percentage attained. This means Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. – whom some believe Democrats encouraged to run in order to siphon votes from the incumbent – and the eventual fourth place finisher will join the general election field.

Fourth place remains undecided due to a significant number of uncounted ballots from the outlying areas. Daniel Sullivan Jr. advances with just 2.4 percent of the vote, while Democrat David Leslie (1,502 votes) and Republican Gerald Heikes (1,485 votes) are separated by only 17 votes, each below 1.2 percent. Estimates project that as many as 34,000 ballots may still remain meaning that either Leslie or Heikes can claim the fourth and final general election ballot position.

The third- and fourth-place finishers will largely determine whether the leading general election candidate reaches a majority. If no one surpasses the 50 percent majority threshold, Ranked Choice Voting activates, meaning a redistribution of second and third choice preferences from people who voted for lower tier candidates.

The major warning sign for Sen. Sullivan is how the Senate primary compares to the other statewide contests. Peltola and the other two Democratic candidates combined for 66,183 votes in the Senate race, while the six Republicans amassed an aggregate 63,888.

In the open Governor’s race, Republicans (12 candidates) combined for 67,198 votes, significantly ahead of the Democrats’ 54,790. In the at-large House race featuring freshman Rep. Nick Begich III (R Chugiak), Republicans totaled 64,011 votes; Independents and minor party candidates followed with 45,215, while Democrats drew only 21,185.

More troubling for Sen. Sullivan was his performance across Alaska’s 40 state House districts, the unit the state uses instead of counties to report vote totals. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians estimate that Republicans hold a partisan lean advantage in 25 of the districts compared to the Democrats’ 15. Yet, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 state House districts that typically lean Republican.

Alaska is a state Senate Republicans cannot afford to lose. With what appears to be a highly likely loss in North Carolina, Republicans are already on defense in Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas. A devastating loss in Alaska – even if Republicans flip Michigan – could reopen the door to a Democratic majority.

Time remains for Sen. Sullivan and the GOP to improve their standing and, as previously mentioned, Republican candidates usually get a bump in support as election day approaches.

If the incumbent, however, enters November slightly ahead or slightly behind Peltola, the nation may wait weeks to learn which party controls the Senate, as Alaska routinely requires extended time to count late arriving ballots from its vast wilderness areas.