Tag Archives: Arizona

A Look at the House

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 26, 2026

The prevailing wisdom suggests that Democrats will capture control of the US House of Representatives next week, potentially securing a majority large enough to push their conference into the high 230-seat range.

National indicators provide the primary basis for this expectation. Democrats hold substantial leads in generic congressional ballot surveys, which ask voters whether they would support the Democratic or Republican candidate for the House if the election were held today. At the same time, President Trump’s job approval ratings remain at or near their lowest levels, further contributing to the Democrats’ favorable political position.

Countering these trends, however, are polling numbers from individual House races, where Republican candidates are running within the margin of error in most of the nation’s highly competitive contests. While it is true that significantly more Republican-held seats are in play this year than is typically the case, Democrats must still win in districts where they have not prevailed, in some instances, for decades. Moreover, Republican candidates have often outperformed their polling numbers in recent election cycles.

Although Democrats appear well-positioned to achieve majority status on Nov. 3, the size of that majority remains speculative and undetermined.

The key battlegrounds are the states where multiple House seats are highly competitive. In this column, we will examine those states to determine whether a clearer picture of the emerging House map can be drawn.

Arizona

Two Arizona seats are considered true toss-ups: the open 1st District and Rep. Juan Ciscomani’s (R-Tucson) 6th District. Polling has been sparse in both races, resulting in fewer publicly available surveys than is typical for contests of such importance.

Because Democratic pollsters generally release more polling data than their Republican counterparts, the lack of such survey releases in these districts may suggest that neither race is trending as favorably for their party as broader national indicators would imply. Consequently, Arizona’s key House contests could buck the national Democratic trend.

California

Democrats drew a new congressional map intended to produce as many as five additional seats for their party, and they may well achieve that objective. Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) appears to have the best chance of surviving under the new lines, though even his path to re-election remains uncertain.

California’s lengthy ballot counting process could also delay a full understanding of the results, as state law allows up to 36 days for ballots to be counted and the election certified.

Colorado

Arguably, three Republican-held seats are in play in Colorado. The district most likely to flip is Rep. Gabe Evans’ (R-Ft. Lupton) 8th District, a seat intentionally drawn to be highly competitive and reflective of the state’s broader political mood. By design, elections there are expected to be close, but the current political environment suggests that state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) may hold a slight advantage.

The other two potentially competitive districts are Rep. Jeff Hurd’s (R-Gunnison) 3rd District and Rep. Jeff Crank’s (R-Colorado Springs) 5th District, both of which are more Republican-leaning than the 8th. Recent attention has focused more heavily on Rep. Crank’s race than on Rep. Hurd’s, a dynamic that could indicate the latter is in a somewhat stronger position despite representing the less Republican of the two districts.

Should Democrats capture both the 3rd and 5th Districts in addition to the 8th, their House majority could approach the 240-seat mark.

Florida

Republicans are counting on gaining four seats from Florida’s redistricting map, but current trends suggest they may be fortunate to secure three. Their strategy hinges on unseating three Democratic incumbents: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), and Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland). Of the three, Rep. Moskowitz presently appears to have the strongest chance of political survival.

If Republicans hope to limit the size of what appears likely to be a new Democratic House majority, capturing all four of their targeted Florida seats is essential.

Iowa

Republicans currently hold all four of Iowa’s congressional districts, and three are considered competitive this election cycle.

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) appears to be the most vulnerable incumbent after winning re-election to a third term in 2024 by just 799 votes. The open 2nd District should remain in Republican hands, but polling suggests a close contest. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant/Des Moines) also faces another highly competitive race in a perennial swing district, and this year is no exception.

Should Democrats sweep Iowa’s three contested districts, they would take a significant step toward building a House majority that approaches the 240-seat mark.

Michigan

Three Republican-held seats are competitive in Michigan, including two currently represented by GOP incumbents.

Reps. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and freshman Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte) both face formidable challengers, though Huizenga benefits from representing the more Republican-friendly district. The politically marginal open 10th District remains a true toss-up and could break either way, although Republicans may hold an advantage with Mike Bouchard Jr., whose profile is enhanced by his father, longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard.

North Carolina

Districts 1 and 11 are the key battlegrounds in North Carolina’s congressional elections. Despite the 1st District being redrawn to favor Republicans, Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) has mounted a strong campaign and could defy the district’s partisan lean.

The western 11th District has also emerged as a major target. With Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrawing from the race because of scandal and censure, Democrats have been presented with an opportunity to capture a seat that would ordinarily be expected to remain in Republican hands.

The GOP likely needs to win both districts if they hope to blunt the momentum of what could become a growing Democratic “blue wave.”

Pennsylvania

Four Republican-held seats are at the center of Pennsylvania’s congressional battlefield. Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown), Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown), Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), and veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) all face formidable challengers in what are expected to be highly competitive races.

For Democrats to build a House majority that reaches the high 230s, they will likely need to capture more than one of these four Republican-held seats.

Texas

The Texas redistricting plan was expected to deliver five additional seats to Republicans, but shifting political trends in South Texas suggest those gains may ultimately fall short of that target. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) appears positioned for re-election, while Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) could retain a district that was specifically drawn to favor a Republican candidate.

Adding to the GOP’s challenges, two-term Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen) faces a difficult re-election battle against former Grammy Award-winning Tejano performer Bobby Pulido (D) and has trailed in several polls. If Democrats can limit Republican gains in Texas to a net increase of just two or three seats, they will remain on a viable path toward building a House majority in the high 230s.

Virginia

Two more Republican incumbents find themselves on the political hot seat in Virginia, even after the state Supreme Court nullified the referendum that would have produced a congressional map making their districts almost impossible to hold. Nevertheless, Reps. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) and Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) remain locked in highly competitive, toss-up races.

Ultimately, the outcome in states featuring multiple competitive House districts will go a long way toward determining not only whether Democrats secure a majority, but also the size of that majority.

Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

Click on map to go to Dave’sRedistrictingApp. Use the dropdown on the left labeled US Map View to navigate to the Redistricting Control Map.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

Continue reading →

Biggs Wins Primary for Governor; Other Arizona Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Five-term Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert), as polling correctly predicted, easily won the Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary last night defeating fellow Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) with more than 70 percent of the vote. Rep. Biggs will now challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs who faced no opposition in her Democratic primary.

With Arizona becoming politically purple, we can again expect another close Governor’s race result. In 2022, Hobbs, then Arizona’s Secretary of State, won a razor-thin 50.3 – 49.6 percent victory over Republican Kari Lake.

Arizona has no Senate election this year, and at least three of the state’s nine House races will be highly competitive in November.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – defeated state Rep. Joseph Chaplik (R Scottsdale) and technology company executive John Trobough. When all the votes are counted, Feeley will garner approximately 50 percent of the party vote.

While a large portion of the Democratic establishment was lining up behind former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated in her in the 2024 Democratic primary and held incumbent David Schweikert to a four-point victory margin in the general election, it will again be Dr. Shah advancing into the general election. The final vote count projection suggests that Dr. Shah will attract in the neighborhood of 42 percent support opposite three other Democratic candidates.

Expect another tight 1st District race to unfold in the general election cycle.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

The other major Republican primary comes in Rep. Biggs’s open congressional district race. Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb shook off a sex scandal to defeat Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan with 58 percent of the vote at this writing.

The 5th District is safely Republican, so Lamb should easily top the new Democratic nominee, nurse Elizabeth Lee, who recorded a landslide victory over her two opponents.

General Election Competition

Aside from the competitive Governor’s race and other statewide campaigns, at least three GOP-held congressional districts are going to draw a great deal of national attention.

The 1st District, as covered above, promises to remain in toss-up mode all the way to election day. Republicans have a small edge in voting history, but the 1st District could easily slip to the Democrats in November. Expect an expensive and hard-hitting campaign to dominate the Phoenix metro political airwaves. Republicans performing better than Democrats in the primary turnout battle will also boost the new GOP nominee, Feeley.

In the northeastern 2nd District, expect both second-term incumbent Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley) and former Navajo Nation president and 2022 congressional nominee Jonathan Nez to again wage strong and expensive campaigns. Rep. Crane won the 2024 version of this contest with a 55-45 percent victory, but the rematch will likely be closer. Rep. Crane, however, still remains the favorite.

From the Phoenix-anchored 4th District, four-term Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Phoenix) was an easy 68 percent Democratic primary winner last night and will have little trouble winning a fifth term in November.

The southeastern 6th CD will feature a bare majority winner as two-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again faces a difficult re-election campaign in a politically marginal congressional district. His 2026 opponent will be retired Marine Corps Sgt. JoAnna Mendoza (D) who will attempt to flip the seat to the Democratic column. Both Rep. Ciscomani and Mendoza were unopposed in yesterday’s primary. Like the 1st District, this campaign will be in toss-up mode until the final vote is tabulated.

In the remaining districts, Reps. Yasamin Ansari (D-Phoenix), Adelita Grijalva (D-Tucson), Abe Hamadeh (R-Phoenix), and Paul Gosar (R-Bullhead City) will all coast to re-election in November.

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Ciattarelli Reverses Tide in NJ;
Grijalva Wins in Arizona

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2025

NJ-Governor

Leading 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R)

Defying the consistent trend showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli (R), a new internal National Research survey reveals a change in momentum.

According to the Ciattarelli campaign’s internal data, the National Research results (Sept. 16-18; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) project the Republican leading with a slight 46-45 percent edge over Sherrill. Earlier in the month, National Research (Sept. 8-10; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) saw Ciattarelli pulling to within a 47-45 percent margin of his Democratic opponent.

Other September polls, and generally all following the June primary, have posted Sherrill to high single digit leads. The two most recent prior to the latest National Research releases, from Quinnipiac University (Sept. 11-15; 1,238 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview) and Quantus Insights (Sept. 2-4; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters) found Rep. Sherrill holding respective leads of 49-41 percent and 47-37 percent.

Organizations that track polling have recorded rather different post-primary averages for the race. The Real Clear Politics Polling Archives finds Rep. Sherrill’s cumulative lead at 8.8 percentage points, while two other stat entities see closer splits. The Race to the White House organization calculates an average 7.5 percent margin, while Decision Desk HQ projects the data result closer to what National Research is finding, giving Sherrill an average 4.2 percent edge.

It does appear that the race is getting tighter as we move toward the Nov. 4 general election. Additionally, Ciattarelli, even in this year’s Republican primary where he scored a 68 percent win, tends to under-poll by a significant margin. In the primary, cumulative research studies found him running nowhere near his final vote total.

For example, the final Emerson College pre-primary poll projected the Ciattarelli preference to be only 44 percent. Here, National Research was closer to the final result, but even their number (54 percent) fell 14 points behind the actual tally.

In the 2021 gubernatorial race where Ciattarelli was viewed as a decided underdog to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) who was seeking re-election, the aggregate polling underestimated the Republican’s strength.

According to the Real Clear Politics archives, six surveys from six different pollsters were released between Oct. 15 and the Nov. 2 election. Gov. Murphy’s average lead was 7.8 percentage points. The actual result was 51-48 percent. The Trafalgar Group, in their Oct. 29-31 survey came closest to the final tally, projecting the race at 49-45 percent in the Democratic Governor’s favor.

Over the course of the past campaign, eleven 2021 polls were released from seven different pollsters providing Gov. Murphy with an average lead of 11.5 percent. Therefore, the ‘21 polling trend may prove similar to what we are starting to see in the 2025 Sherrill-Ciattarelli contest.

It appears the stage may be set for another closer-than-expected finish in the New Jersey Governor’s campaign.

AZ-7

As expected, former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D) easily won last night’s US House special election in Arizona’s Tucson-anchored 7th District and will succeed her late father in Congress. Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) passed away in March.

Ms. Grijalva scored what appears to be a 68-30 percent win in a safely Democratic district before a turnout of approximately 102,000 voters. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean for AZ-7, meaning Rep-Elect Grijalva ran slightly ahead of the district’s vote benchmark.

The 7th CD houses part of Tucson and then moves south to the Mexican border before stretching west all the way to California. The district is 55 percent Hispanic and the second strongest Democratic seat in the Grand Canyon State. Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60-38 percent.

When Ms. Grijalva is sworn into the House, the partisan division will change to 219R – 214D. The two remaining US House special elections are in Tennessee (7th District; Oct. 7 special primary; Dec. 2 special general) and Texas (18th District; Nov. 4 jungle election; Gov. Greg Abbott (R) schedules the special runoff between the top two finishers if no one receives majority support after the official count projects the need for a secondary election). Republicans are favored to hold in Tennessee, and Democrats in Texas.

AZ-7 Special Today;
California Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025

AZ-7

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva after her win in the July 15 special Democratic primary. / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Voters in the Tucson, Arizona area today go to the polls to elect a replacement for the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D) who passed away in March.

This vote is basically pro forma, as the determinative election was held in the July 15 Democratic primary. The late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, who had to resign her seat on the Pima County Board of Supervisors to run for Congress, easily won the party nomination.

Ms. Grijalva’s primary conquest virtually guarantees her a win tonight in a seat that carries a partisan lean of 65.5D – 32.3R (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations). She will defeat 2024 Republican congressional nominee Daniel Butierez and exceed the 60 percent vote threshold. The Green Party and No Labels Party also qualified nominees, but they will factor little in the final outcome.

The Grijalva victory will bring the US House partisan division total to 219R – 214D. The next special vote will come in Tennessee on Oct. 7. There, both parties will hold contested primaries as the first step to replacing resigned Rep. Mark Green (R). The Tennessee special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The final vacant seat, Texas’ 18th District anchored in Houston, will hold its jungle special election on Nov. 4. Should no one reach majority support, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule a runoff election for the top two finishers.

California

In a report last month, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-CA) was quoted as saying he is considering entering the open California Governor’s race but will make a decision after the special redistricting election to be held Nov. 4.

It appeared that Sen. Padilla, as a sitting statewide incumbent, would soar to the top of early gubernatorial polls that have never projected any candidate even reaching 20 percent support from what promises to be a crowded final field. The first poll that included Sen. Padilla on the contenders’ list produced a surprising result, however.

The latest California Emerson College Poll (Sept. 15-16; 1,000 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) testing the Governor’s race and the redistricting ballot referendum was released over the weekend.

The ballot test again finds former Rep. Katie Porter leading the jungle primary field but with only 16 percent preference. Following are two Republicans totaling 18 percent of the jungle primary vote — former Fox News host Steve Hilton (10 percent) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Biano (8 percent). Sen. Padilla is next, posting only 7 percent support, which is a surprisingly low number for a sitting US Senator in such a crowded field. Following him, at 3 percent support, is former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 12-term Golden State Congressman, Xavier Becerra (D).

Data such as this may prompt Sen. Padilla to have second thoughts about running for Governor. Though he could still certainly mount a winning campaign, his residual political strength is likely less than he initially calculated.

The Emerson poll also tested the special election to pass a redistricting ballot proposition that would bypass the California Citizens Redistricting Commission map and substitute a gerrymandered plan. The new map would ostensibly relegate Republicans to just four of 52 seats in “retaliation,” according to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), to the Texas redistricting plan.

The ballot initiative polled at 51 percent favoring and 34 percent opposing. While the “Yes” vote is well ahead in this early survey, California analysts point out that the “No” position on almost every ballot initiative gains in polling support as the election draws near. Therefore, reaching only 51 percent in the initial test suggests that the margin for error is slim, and securing passage is not a foregone conclusion.

Expect the Golden State Governor’s race, Sen. Padilla’s ultimate decision about running, and the redistricting referendum to draw much more national attention as we move toward the Nov. 4 special election and the California candidate filing deadline slated for March 6, 2026.

Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

Grijalva Wins in Arizona;
Cuomo Announces as an Independent

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 17, 2025

AZ-7

Adelita Grijalva / Photo by Kelly Presnell

Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva and daughter of the late Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson), won Tuesday night’s special Democratic primary, easily defeating media influencer Deja Foxx and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Grijalva’s victory is the first step toward replacing her late father in Congress. The 11-term Representative passed away in March.

Grijalva will now face painting contractor Daniel Butierrez, who won the Republican nomination as he did for the 2024 election. In last November’s result, Butierrez fell to Rep. Grijalva, 63-37 percent, and spent just over $76,000 on his campaign.

The 7th District of Arizona is strongly Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 65.5D – 32.3R), so Grijalva is now the prohibitive favorite to win the special general election on Sept. 23. At that point, she would be sworn into the House to complete the balance of the current term.

The Grand Canyon State’s vacant 7th District is anchored in Arizona’s second largest city, Tucson, and contains all of Santa Cruz County and parts of four other counties including Pima. The district’s voting age population is heavily Hispanic, 55.4 percent, as compared to 32.9 percent White.

The 7th is Arizona’s heaviest Hispanic district and stretches from just west of New Mexico all the way to the California border. In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Trump here, 60.5 – 38.4 percent.

The Arizona vote was the first in a series of special elections. On July 20, Rep. Mark Green (R-TN) will resign from the House. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) will then have 10 days to set the special election calendar for the state’s 7th District (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D). At this preliminary point, we already see eight Republicans and four Democrats already declaring their candidacies.

On Sept. 9, Virginia’s 11th District (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R) voters will choose a replacement for the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax). The party nominees are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw for the Democrats and Republican former FBI agent Stewart Whitson.

The TX-18 seat (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R) will then hold its special jungle preliminary election to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) concurrently with the Texas municipal calendar on Nov. 4. The crowded open contest will most likely produce two runoff participants. Such will occur if no candidate receives majority support, which is the most probable result. If so, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will then schedule a special general election in order to fill the district’s vacant congressional seat.

New York City

Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who lost the New York City Democratic mayoral primary earlier this year, formally announced that he will return for the general election on the Independent ballot line. He joins the city’s incumbent Mayor, Eric Adams, as Independents. Controversial state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D-New York City) won the open partisan primary election on June 24.

With a split field that also includes Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, the most likely result is Mamdani winning a plurality victory in this most Democratic of municipalities. Though the Ranked Choice Voting process was used in the primary election, it is not a factor in the November general election.

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.