Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

GOP Starting to Spend

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 24, 2026

Finance

While national Republican organizations hold a sizable cash‑on‑hand advantage over their Democratic counterparts, the GOP is now beginning to spend aggressively — and they have substantial resources to deploy.

Among the major presidential and party committees, Republicans are led by President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., along with the Republican National Committee (RNC), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Democrats counter with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Each party also benefits from major outside spending arms aligned with congressional leadership: the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund on the Republican side, and the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC for Democrats.

Collectively, these committees have raised more than $2.5 billion in the current election cycle. The largest single entity is President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., which reported an extraordinary $424,389,502 raised through the Aug. 31 monthly filing. The RNC follows with $316,215,037. In aggregate, Republican committees have taken in $1.555 billion for the 2026 cycle, compared to $964 million for the Democratic committees.

Democrats, however, have been the more aggressive early spenders. Across all major party and party‑affiliated committees, Republicans report a combined cash‑on‑hand total of $1.029 billion, while Democrats hold 38 percent of the GOP total: $392 million.

All financial figures come from committee disclosure reports filed on Aug. 31, except those from the Senate Leadership Fund, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Senate Majority PAC, whose next reporting deadline is Sept. 30, with public access beginning Oct. 15.

Another major funding channel for both parties is their online donor platforms, which serve as conduits for small‑dollar contributions to individual campaigns. These entities act as holding companies, transferring funds to campaigns upon receipt. Though campaigns pay significant fees for the service, they benefit from streamlined fundraising without major overhead.

In this arena, Democrats dominate. Despite ActBlue — the party’s flagship online fundraising platform — facing a congressional investigation over potential foreign contributions and other alleged irregularities, and its leaders invoking their Fifth Amendment rights before congressional committees, the organization continues to operate at full speed.

In this cycle, ActBlue has transferred an extraordinary $2.26 billion to Democratic Senate and House candidates. The Republican counterpart, WINRED, has moved more than $748 million to GOP candidates, or 33 percent of Act Blue’s total.

Even with the significant Democratic advantage in online fundraising, the umbrella Republican apparatus still maintains a $564 million overall financial edge. The next question is how the GOP intends to deploy these resources. The first major answers come in Texas and Ohio.

According to AdImpact, the Senate Leadership Fund — through its Texas affiliate — is reserving $100 million in advertising to support Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin. The investment is critical for Paxton, whose campaign reported just $1.75 million in cash on hand as of June 30, compared to Talarico’s $21.5 million.

AdImpact also reports that Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s campaign is positioned to outspend former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by a $90 million to $60.2 million margin in reserved ad time, not including a newly announced $30 million expenditure from the cryptocurrency‑aligned Super PAC Fairshake.

Fairshake spent heavily in 2024 to help defeat Sen. Brown, who, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, was one of Washington’s most outspoken cryptocurrency critics.

The remaining weeks of the 2026 election cycle are likely to see record‑setting spending. This cycle has already established a new fundraising benchmark, but it will almost certainly be surpassed, and in short order.

Expect the 2028 presidential cycle to be the most expensive in American campaign history — and the gap between first and second place election cycle spending will not even be close.

Understanding the Polls

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 23, 2027

Senate

Senate polling over the past two weeks shows a modest uptick for Democratic candidates, but the question remains whether these numbers will translate into victories.

If recent election cycles are any guide, the answer is likely no. Data from the past three national elections consistently show that pollsters tend to underestimate Republican strength while more accurately projecting the Democratic vote share.

The pattern is clear when examining four key states in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. All four feature close Senate races this year.

In Texas, the 2020 polling averages suggested President Trump would win by roughly one point; he carried the state by six. In 2024, the averages pointed to a six-point Trump margin, but he ultimately won by 13.

Iowa largely displayed the same trend. Polling in 2020 projected a Trump win of between 1.3 and 2 points; he won by eight. In 2024, the averages showed a lead of about 4.5 points, yet he prevailed by 13.

Ohio followed suit. In 2020, Trump’s polling margin topped out at one point, but he won by eight. In 2024, the averages suggested a lead of 7.6 to 8.8 points; he finished with an 11-point victory.

Alaska also demonstrated this undercounting pattern. In 2020, Trump was projected to win by 5.6 to 7.7 points; he won by 10. In 2024, the averages showed an 8- to 10-point Trump lead; he won by 13.

Republicans hope this underpolling pattern is again present in this year’s Senate races. If pollsters continue to correctly project Democratic strength, those candidates will likely settle in the high 40s as the campaign progresses through the election prime time weeks. The numbers will shift somewhat as early voting approaches in mid October, but the broader trend is worth watching.

The table at top reflects where the dozen most competitive Senate races stand today. Democrats have two clear leaders – Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. The remaining contests are much tighter.

Two of the biggest surprises in this table are the relatively weak Minnesota numbers for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and the somewhat unexpectedly competitive Ohio polling for former Sen. Sherrod Brown. While Brown’s numbers mirror the trajectory that preceded Sen. Bernie Moreno’s upset win in 2024, they still leave him positioned for a potential comeback victory this year.

Except for Georgia and North Carolina, the margins in the other races remain close. The Democratic average in the mid-to-high 40s is encouraging for Republicans, yet Democrats being competitive in so many Republican held states is similarly heartening for the challenging party.

Open-Seat Dynamics

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

The 2026 election cycle has produced major shifts in the open‑seat category, particularly in the House. Although 73 US House seats are currently being contested without an incumbent, the total number of seats that became open at some point during the 119th Congress is actually 83.

Ten of these vacancies were later filled through special elections. While recent cycles since 2012 have all featured large numbers of open seats, none have matched the volume seen this year.

Early media commentary framed the high number of departures as an exodus driven by frustration with Washington and, specifically, with President Trump. The data actually tells a more nuanced story.

Of the original 83 incumbents who are not seeking re‑election, only 32 are retiring from elective politics, and the partisan breakdown is nearly even: 15 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The remaining departures stem from other causes.

Five members have died since the 119th Congress convened on Jan. 3, 2025. Seven resigned, including two who accepted Administration appointments, though one, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew from consideration for US Attorney General after it became clear he would not be confirmed. The other resignations were tied to controversy or scandal.

Another 28 House members are not leaving politics at all; instead, they chose to run for other offices: 16 for the Senate, 11 for Governor, and one for state Attorney General. Of these 28, only 13 won their party’s nomination. Additionally, 11 incumbents – seven Democrats and four Republicans – were defeated for renomination.

Against this backdrop, one of the most significant developments in the open‑seat category is the sharp rise in competitive and highly competitive races. At the start of the cycle, only three open seats appeared likely to change party hands. As the campaign season has progressed, that number has grown substantially. Today, 18 open seats present realistic opportunities for a party flip, including 12 rated as highly competitive.

Ten of these highly competitive seats are currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats a larger pool of conversion opportunities. This is particularly important given that Democrats need to flip only three Republican seats to reach the 218‑seat threshold for majority control. After redistricting in 10 states, the number of potential Democratic flips could rise to 12.

The Senate also features an unusually large number of open seats. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, 16 are open – meaning the Senator elected in 2020 is not seeking re‑election. Twelve of these vacancies are Republican.

Most of the departing Senators are retiring due to age; two are over 80, and all but one would be over 70 at the end of another term. Three Senators left office to accept Administration positions, triggering special elections in Florida and Ohio, which are not normally in cycle this year.

Two Senators, Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) and John Cornyn (R‑TX), were defeated for renomination, and one, Lindsey Graham (R‑SC), passed away. Only one Senator, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, is leaving to run for another office (Governor).

Seven of the open Senate races are highly competitive, with a realistic chance that voters will elect a candidate from the opposite party of the departing incumbent. The most hotly contested open seats are in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Taken together, these House and Senate dynamics mean that at least 99 of the 535 members of the next Congress will be new to Washington compared to those elected in the previous cycle. Such a turnover will almost certainly shape the character and priorities of the next legislative session.

Assessing House Momentum

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 21, 2026

House

Perusing most political media – and now the prediction markets – the prevailing wisdom holds that Democrats will claim the House majority in November. The central question is, however, from where do those 218-plus seats come?

Examining the national map, roughly 45 House seats across 25 states appear genuinely competitive. A potential flaw in much of the prevailing analysis is an underestimation of the new redistricting maps and the number of seats likely to move toward Republicans as a result. Redistricting remains a meaningful mitigating factor against projected Democratic gains.

Within the 45 most competitive races, at least 15 Republican‑held seats appear positioned to flip to the Democrats. Countering this, however, are as many as 13 Democratic seats that could move toward Republicans, largely due to favorable redistricting. If this scenario materialized, Democrats would fall just short of a majority, producing a 218R–217D House.

Expanding to the next tier of competitiveness, Democrats appear viable in an additional 15 seats, stretching their theoretical gain to 30. Subtracting the Republicans’ potential 13 pickups yields a 17‑seat Democratic gain, translating to a 232D–203R majority.

A more realistic outlook may place Democrats flipping about 20 Republican seats, while Republicans counter with 10- to 13-seat gains. Under the lower GOP estimate – 10 seats – the House would stand at 225D–210R.

Across the 25 competitive states, Democrats could plausibly take four to five Republican seats in California and one in Utah, with additional single‑seat opportunities in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. None, however, are guaranteed.

Republicans, meanwhile, are positioned to convert Democratic seats in Texas (3-5), Florida (3-4), and single seats in Alabama, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee – again, with no guaranteed flips.

Several states feature multiple battlegrounds: two competitive districts in Arizona, three in Iowa, and three of four districts in Nevada, for example.

Additional multi‑seat battlegrounds lie in Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with single‑district opportunities in Kentucky, Montana, New Mexico, and Washington. With House competition active in half the country, the political terrain is broad.

Recent voter registration trends offer further electoral clues. Of the 25 competitive states for US House races, 16 register by political party.

Since the 2024 general election, Democrats have gained registration strength in only four of the 16 states (Iowa, New Jersey, New York, and Utah).

Republicans have gained in seven (California, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York), while Independent or non‑affiliated voters have grown the most, increasing in 11 of the 16 party‑registration states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Utah).

Both parties lost registrants in eight states, largely due to voter‑file purges that various state laws individually mandate. These purges remove inactive voters, often in sizable numbers. In all eight states where both parties declined, Republicans lost fewer voters than Democrats, a pattern that could further mitigate some of the Democratic gains many prognosticators expect.

The picture shifts again when factoring in the substantial growth among Independent/non‑affiliated voters. While registration alone cannot determine their partisan lean, most voters in this category ultimately favor a particular party.

Even though Democrats appear to be losing more registrants than Republicans, a strong Democratic lean among the expanding Independent bloc could offset some of that loss and meaningfully reshape the electoral landscape.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

Carolina’s Critical Campaigns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.

NC-Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race; he dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.

Since the March 3 primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.

North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.

Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

NC-1

North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.

In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48 percent. Despite Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.

The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by 10-plus points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.

A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (Sept. 8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43 percent, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (June 22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41 percent spread.

The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.

NC-11

The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.

Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised more than $2 million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.

NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Ager leads just 47-44 percent over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.

Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.

NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.

North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.

New Minnesota Poll:
An Emerging Trend?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Polling

A new co/efficient Republican poll (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota general‑election voters; live interview and text) finds a surprising result: both the Republican gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates are within a point or two of their Democratic opponents.

According to the co/efficient numbers, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) leads the gubernatorial race over state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring) by only a 47-45 percent margin. In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) holds a narrow one‑point edge over former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, 43-42 percent.

Given Minnesota’s status as the most loyal Democratic state in presidential elections, these results are eye‑opening and suggest the poll could be an outlier. In reality, however, the co/efficient numbers are not far from what other pollsters have recently reported.

A Quantus Insights survey (Sept. 8-10; 720 likely general election voters) found Lt. Gov. Flanagan ahead 48-44 percent. Just before that, TIPP Insights (Aug. 31-Sept. 2; 1,201 likely general election voters) projected an almost identical result to co/efficient: Flanagan leading 44-42 percent.

The gubernatorial race is a different story. The co/efficient survey shows the closest margin, but because Klobuchar is widely viewed as a prohibitive favorite, the contest has not been polled often. The previously mentioned TIPP survey included the governor’s question and found Klobuchar holding a 50-40 percent lead over Speaker DeMuth.

There is ample reason to view Minnesota as a solidly Democratic domain. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972. The state legislature, however, tells quite a different story. Democrats were elected to a bare 34-33 majority in the state Senate, and the parties began the current legislative session in a 67-67 tie in the state House of Representatives, leading to DeMuth’s Republican speakership.

Another notable finding from the co/efficient poll involves the “most important issue” question. In virtually every recent survey, cost of living, affordability, or the economy ranks first. In this study, however, the most frequently mentioned issue is government corruption.

This is plausible given Minnesota’s multi‑million‑dollar transfer payment scandal, in which fraudsters exploited weak bureaucratic and legislative oversight. The scandal has received extensive local and national media attention, and Tafoya has made it a centerpiece of her campaign.

Irrespective of tightening poll numbers, it remains difficult to envision Klobuchar losing the open governorship, though the final weeks of the campaign may prove more challenging than she anticipated when initially launching her 2026 bid.

The Senate race, on the other hand, is becoming a legitimately competitive open seat contest. Tafoya is well known in the state through her years of covering Minnesota sports before moving to the national arena, and she posts a stronger favorability rating than Lt. Gov. Flanagan. According to the co/efficient poll, Tafoya’s positive‑to‑negative ratio is 36:32, while Flanagan is significantly underwater at 33:42.

Minnesota voters have experienced substantial upheaval in recent years – from George Floyd’s death in 2020, to ICE‑related demonstrations and fatalities, to the major government fraud scandal – leaving the electorate unsettled. Reactions to these events differ sharply between rural Minnesota and the Twin Cities, helping explain why the 2026 statewide campaigns may be closer than usual.

While Democrats see emerging opportunities in traditionally Republican states such as Nebraska and Kansas, Republican Senate candidates are making clear inroads in Democratic strongholds like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Therefore, as November approaches, it is possible that we will witness unique and surprising electoral outcomes once ballot counting begins on election night.

Nebraska’s Notable Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Senate

SurveyUSA went into the field to test the Cornhusker State of Nebraska’s electorate and it appears we may be seeing deja vu all over again in the state’s US Senate race.

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to give Republican Sen. Deb Fischer a tough race when it appeared that she would run virtually unopposed. As September closed that year, Osborn was running consistently ahead in multiple polls, yet ultimately lost by almost seven percentage points – despite late polling suggesting Sen. Fischer’s average advantage was under two points.

This year, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won the 2024 special election with 63 percent of the vote to serve the balance of the current term and now seeks a full six‑year stint, faces Osborn as the latter man returns to try again. Approaching mid‑September, a familiar pattern is emerging: a new poll again shows Osborn with a slight lead.

The SurveyUSA data (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely Nebraska general‑election voters; live interview and text) places Osborn ahead of Ricketts, 46-42 percent. The only other publicly released poll since the May 12th primary, conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research (Aug. 9-13; 600 likely voters; live interview), found the race deadlocked at 47 percent apiece.

SurveyUSA segmented its current results by congressional district. While the cell sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions, they offer directional insight.

As expected, Sen. Ricketts performed strongly in the heavily Republican 3rd District and trailed in the Omaha based 2nd CD. Raising eyebrows, however, was his deficit in the Republican leaning 1st District that Congressman Mike Flood (R-Norfolk/ Lincoln) represents. With only 176 respondents in that segment, the finding is not definitive, but the ballot test deficit is enough to command the attention of Sen. Ricketts’ political strategists.

Another unexpected finding came from the favorability ratings. Statewide responses for President Trump, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lynne Walz, Sen. Ricketts, and Osborn all registered negative images. Seeing all statewide figures viewed negatively may reflect the broader political frustration appearing across much of the country.

Supporting the frustration interpretation, a YouGov national online survey for CBS News (Sept. 8-11; 1,809 registered voters) found nearly identical unfavorable ratings for both major parties: Republicans were negatively viewed by a 43:56 ratio and Democrats at a 44:56 negative proportion.

Yet even with Gov. Pillen’s poor 35:52 favorability score, he still leads Walz – a former state Senator and cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz – by a 43-35 percent margin in the SUSA ballot test. Such conflicting and sometimes counterintuitive resultshave seemingly become commonplace throughout much of the country.

As Republicans appear to be facing a difficult national environment – potentially losing the House majority and seeing their Senate advantage threatened – the question becomes whether voters will turn to a Democratic Party they view with comparable dissatisfaction.

The closing weeks of the 2026 campaign may therefore produce unexpected messaging choices and unconventional strategic decisions as candidates and party leaders navigate through what increasingly looks like a demoralized electorate.