Virtual Tie Between Trump, Harris; Movement in Texas to Fill Jackson Lee’s Seat; Six Dems Criticize VP Harris’s Role in Securing Border

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 26, 2024

President

National Polls: A Virtual Tie — From July 21-24, eight political pollsters conducted national ballot tests of former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The surveys produced mixed results. All were conducted online and came from Activote, YouGov, Ipsos, RMG Research, Big Village, Change Research, Morning Consult, and the New York Times/Siena College. The range was from Harris, plus-four to Trump, plus-3. Of the nine polls (YouGov ran two), Trump was ahead in five and Harris four.

New Hampshire: First Polls Favor Harris — While polling was showing former President Trump pulling just ahead of President Biden in New Hampshire before the latter man left the race, two new surveys see a reversal back toward the Democratic nominee in identical margins.

St. Anselm’s College and the University of New Hampshire, both regular Granite State pollsters, went into the field to test Trump against presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. St. Anselm’s (July 24-25; 2,083 registered New Hampshire voters; online) sees Harris leading Trump, 50-44 percent. UNH (July 23-25; 2,875 registered New Hampshire voters; online) found a similar 49-43 percent spread. Both detected the six-point margin.

Trump did not run well in New Hampshire in the last election, losing to President Biden, 53-45 percent. Therefore, continued polling results such as seen in these two flash polls may suggest the Trump campaign will move to more fertile territory.

House

TX-18: Potential Candidates Begin Making Moves — The death of veteran Texas US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) means the Harris County Democratic Party will choose a replacement on the November ballot for her. The Committee members must make their selection before Aug. 26, but the leadership indicates the body will act well before the deadline.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Houston mayor and ex-state Representative Sylvester Turner, at-large Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer, and former US Senate and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards. The 18th District, fully contained within Harris County, is heavily Democratic. Therefore, whomever the party members choose will assuredly win the seat in November. Thus, this small group of activists will have the power to designate the area’s next member of Congress.

House Democrats: Vulnerable Members Break Ranks — Six Democrats broke party ranks to support a Republican resolution criticizing Vice President Harris’ role in securing the border. Not surprisingly, the six are all in competitive House districts, and among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking re-election. They are: Reps. Yadira Caraveo (D-CO-8), Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Jared Golden (D-ME-2), Mary Peltola (D-AK-AL), and Marie Glusenkamp Perez (D-WA-3).

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

  1. RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
  2. Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
  3. YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Trump Campaign Files FEC Complaint Against Harris; Gallego Expands Lead in Arizona; Senate Race Tightens in Nevada; Menendez Says He’s Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 24, 2024

President

Trump Campaign: Files FEC Complaint Against Harris — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission arguing that Vice President Kamala Harris’s new campaign committee is not entitled to a direct transfer of the some $95-plus million that President Joe Biden held in his campaign account. Many believe that because she was on the presidential ticket her campaign committee would have access to the funds.

The Trump lawyers point out, however, that the official name of the presidential committee is simply, “Joe Biden for President.” The committee name has been changed to “Harris for President,” which the Trump operation claims is premature and an infraction of campaign finance law. Should the complaint before the commission end in a three to three tie, with the three Republicans voting to affirm the complaint and the three Democrats against, the Trump campaign could then take the measure to court.

Senate

Arizona: Gallego Expands Lead — Countering the last three July polls that found the Arizona Senate race tightening to within the polling margin of error, Public Policy Polling released new data (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; July 19-20; 736 registered Arizona voters; live interview & text) that posts US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to a seven-point advantage, 49-42 percent, over former news anchor and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake.

In the presidential race, former President Trump leads Vice President Harris, 46-40 percent, again finding the familiar pattern of the Republican Senate nominee dropping behind the GOP ticket leader. In terms of approval rating, Trump scored a 47:49 percent favorability index. This compares well opposite Harris’ poor 38:55 percent positive to negative ratio.

Nevada: Race Tightens — British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (polling for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 412 likely Nevada voters; part of a 5,005 sampling universe covering Nevada and seven other states) tested the Nevada Senate race and sees a tighter result than most recent polls. The ballot test found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), 41-37 percent. Recently, after a barrage of Rosen advertising, the senator had been posting leads as high as eight and 12 points.

New Jersey: Sen. Menendez to Officially Resign — After indicating that he would resign from the Senate after being found guilty of bribery but not providing any specifics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D) announced yesterday that he will leave the Senate on Aug. 20. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) immediately indicated that he will appoint a replacement for the outgoing senator to serve the balance of the term. It is unlikely that he will appoint Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the Democratic nomination after Menendez decided not to seek renomination and Gov. Murphy’s wife, Tammy Murphy, withdrew from the Senate race.

Sen. Menendez then filed as an Independent for the Senate, but that was a move largely to qualify to legally spend his campaign money on legal fees. As a non-candidate, he could not have used the funds for such an expenditure. It is now likely he will also withdraw his Independent candidacy. Rep. Kim is favored to defeat Republican businessman Curtis Bashaw in the November general election.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.

It’s Now the Harris for President Campaign; Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away; Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead in NE-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 22, 2024

President

It’s now the Harris for President Campaign — Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

President Biden: Drops Campaign Bid; VP Harris Endorsed — As we know, President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race Sunday and now the Democrats are faced with the task of choosing a new nominee.

The most logical and practical selection is Vice President Kamala Harris. First, President Biden has already endorsed her, helping to bolster her claim for the position.

Second, one of the main points the president made in favor of staying on the ticket was the 14-plus million people who voted for him throughout the primary voting process. Vice President Harris is the only person who can claim with some legitimacy that the people voting for Biden were also approving her position on the national ticket.

Third, and perhaps most importantly, the money transfer is a critical factor in the transition to a new nominee. The current Biden campaign treasury, some $91.5 million according to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign disclosure report, can only be transferred to Vice President Harris. For any other candidate, the Biden money would have to be refunded to donors and then re-contributed to the new nominee.

Vice-President Harris: Considering Running Mates — News reports suggests that Vice President Harris is considering four elected officials as possible replacements for herself as she ascends to the presidential nomination. The first cut of potential running mates appears to feature Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and three governors: Andy Beshear (KY), Roy Cooper (NC), and Josh Shapiro (PA).

California Gov. Gavin Newsom, whose name is always mentioned as a future presidential prospect, would be eliminated from consideration as Harris’ running mate because both hail from California. As when Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R) was under consideration to be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate but in effect was disqualified because he was a resident of the same state as the Republican presidential nominee, such is the situation for Gov. Newsom. The US Constitution’s 12th Amendment stipulates that the president and vice president must reside in different domains.

House

On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away.

TX-18: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Passes Away — On Friday, 15-term Texas Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) passed away. Weeks before she announced that she was fighting pancreatic cancer, a disease that she could not overcome. Rep. Jackson Lee was 74 years old, and the third member of the House to pass away during this Congress. The other two were Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA) and Donald Payne, Jr. (D-NJ).

Texas’ 18th District is heavily Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it as D+43. The Daily Kos Elections site statisticians rank the seat as the 46th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. The local Democratic Party committee will choose a nominee to replace Ms. Jackson Lee on the November ballot by Aug. 26. It is unclear at this writing whether Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will call a special election for an individual to serve the balance of the current term.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Posts Small Re-Election Lead — A Torchlight Strategies poll (July 8-11; 300 likely NE-2 voters) sees four-term US Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) topping state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) 46-43 percent in his bid for a fifth term. NE-2 is a swing congressional district and one that carries its own electoral vote in the presidential election. Because it can vote opposite of the state total, the district is one of two seats in the country — ME-2 being the other — that could cause a tie in the Electoral College. Both Maine and Nebraska employ a system where the presidential candidate is awarded two electoral votes for winning the statewide count and one each for the congressional districts that they carry.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NE-2 as R+3, which is different than the 2020 configuration that gave Joe Biden a 22,000-plus vote win over then-President Donald Trump. The previous rating was even. In 2022, Rep. Bacon defeated Sen. Vargas, 51-49 percent, and another tight race between the two men is forecast for November.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Sen. Bob Menendez Will Resign;
Q2 Senate Fundraising Report;
GOP Candidates Lead in MI-7, NY-19

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 18, 2024

Senate

New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D)

Sen. Bob Menendez: Will Resign — Reports coming from New Jersey indicate that convicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D), answering the calls of the New Jersey political leadership to resign his seat, will do so. Had he not agreed to leave, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) indicated that he would have introduced a resolution to expel Menendez.

When the senator leaves office, Gov. Phil Murphy (D) indicated he will make a caretaker appointment, meaning an individual that will only serve the balance of the current term. Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) won the Democratic nomination in the June 4 primary and is favored to win the general election in November. He, or whoever wins the general election, will then be sworn in with the new Congress next January.

Senate Fundraising: 2nd Qtr FEC Report — The Daily Kos Elections staff has once again completed their tabulation from the latest Federal Election Commission campaign finance reports, this for the 2nd quarter of the election year.

A total of 66 Senate candidates filed reports and cumulatively the group raised over $172,000,000 in the second quarter of 2024. The cycle-to-date fundraising figure for the aggregate group is just under $772,000,000. The individual campaign mean average figure is $2.6 million raised for the quarter and over $11.6 million for the election cycle. The median average per campaign is $8.5 million cycle-to-date.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) has raised the most for the 2024 campaign, more than $57.3 million, with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next with $51.4 million in campaign receipts. The candidate with the most money in their campaign account at the June 30 filing deadline is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) with $10.8 million cash-on-hand. The non-incumbent who has raised the most cycle-to-date is Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) with $38.8 million raised, but his opponent, former baseball star Steve Garvey (R) out-raised him in the second quarter, $5.4 million to $4.0 million.

House

MI-7: Republican Leads in Swing District — A new Noble Predictive Insights survey of central Michigan voters (July 8-11; 532 likely MI-7 general election voters; live interview & text) finds a rather surprising result on their 7th Congressional District ballot test question. Former state Sen. Tom Barrett (R) lost to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the last election by a 52-46 percent margin but now leads former state Sen. Curtis Hertel (D) by a 48-41 percent spread that is beyond the polling margin of error.

The MI-7 campaign will be one of the most competitive in the nation. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat R+4. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.3D – 47.9R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rate MI-7 as the sixth most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference and is clearly a top Republican conversion target.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro Holds Definitive Lead: New York Congressman Marc Molinaro’s (R-Red Hook) campaign released the results of their latest Cygnal data organization poll (July 9-11; 420 registered NY-19 voters). According to the survey results, Rep. Molinaro, who defeated Democrat Josh Riley 50-48 percent in 2022, now leads his former and current opponent by a 47-38 percent in a 19th CD that was made slightly more Republican in the latest redistricting draw.