Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

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By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

Republican‑led states will have incentive to adjust their maps to limit Democratic gains to a single cycle, while Democratic‑led states will seek to make their newly elected members more secure heading into 2028.

Of the 36 gubernatorial races, 15 appear competitive or moderately competitive. In those states, the 2026 outcomes could materially influence the 2027 redistricting picture. Redistricting will not occur in two of the competitive gubernatorial states, Alaska and Vermont, because both have at-large congressional districts.

Arizona

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is in a competitive race but continues to hold polling leads over Rep. Andy Biggs (R‑Gilbert), thus positioning her as the favorite for re‑election based on current data. Republicans maintain narrow majorities in both legislative chambers, but if Democrats were to gain control in November, movement on redistricting could follow.

Arizona was one of the first states to adopt an independent citizens’ redistricting commission, yet the 2026 cycle has shown that several states have found ways to maneuver around their commissions in order to implement new maps.

Florida

Polling shows a close Governor’s race in early October, but pollsters have badly missed the Florida elections for the past four cycles. Republicans have big majorities in both legislative chambers, so it is unlikely that the state will be a factor in 2027 redistricting irrespective of the gubernatorial outcome.

Georgia

Georgia was among the states that initially considered redrawing its maps after the Callais decision, but legislative leaders ultimately chose not to proceed. They later announced plans to call a post‑election special session, yet no such scheduling action has been taken.

If Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms were to win the Governor’s race, legislative leaders would likely move quickly to convene and advance a map designed to add two Republican seats while Gov. Brian Kemp (R) remains in office.

Iowa

Democrat Rob Sand is well positioned to win the governorship, but it remains unlikely that redistricting will occur in a state that has effectively ceded the map‑drawing process to a legislative algorithm. Republican majorities in both legislative chambers are strong, so even with a Sand victory, it is improbable that we will see a redistricting effort regardless of how the competitive congressional elections unfold.

Kansas

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term‑limited this year, giving Republicans a strong opportunity to reclaim the governorship. In most polling, state Senate President Ty Masterson (R‑El Dorado) holds an advantage over state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D‑Olathe). With Republicans maintaining solid majorities in both legislative chambers, a Masterson victory would likely place redistricting on the table for 2027. The result could be a one‑seat Republican gain.

Michigan

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is poised to succeed term‑limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), placing the focus squarely on the legislature. Democrats hold a narrow majority in the state Senate, while Republicans control the House. If the latter chamber flips, Democrats could attempt a redistricting move.

Michigan has an independent redistricting commission, but as noted earlier, several states have successfully maneuvered around their citizens’ panels in 2026. Should Democrats capture the state House majority, Michigan will become a state to watch in the redistricting arena.

Nebraska

Gov. Jim Pillen (R) faces competition in this cycle but is still expected to prevail. Republicans were just one vote short of advancing a redistricting plan in 2026, so any changes in the unicameral legislature could determine whether a new map is implemented. With the open 2nd District likely to elect a Democrat next month, Republicans would have added partisan incentive to pursue a redraw in 2027.

Nevada

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is in a tight re‑election campaign, and if Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford were to unseat him, redistricting could quickly emerge as an issue in the new legislative session. Democrats appear positioned to retain their majorities in both legislative chambers.

Should they also capture the state’s lone Republican congressional district, the Reno‑anchored 2nd District, a Democratic legislature and Governor would likely move to redraw the map in order to make that seat more secure for their new Representative. Whether redistricting occurs in 2027 will largely hinge on the gubernatorial outcome.

New York

The Empire State will be particularly interesting to watch next year on the redistricting front. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is favored to win re‑election, and the legislature will remain solidly Democratic. Although New York has a redistricting commission, Democrats believe they can draw additional Democratic‑leaning districts.

Their challenge, however, is the state’s significant population loss concentrated entirely in New York City. According to mid‑decade Census Bureau estimates, New York has lost more than 200,000 residents, all from NYC, while the rest of the state has experienced modest growth. As a result, efforts to increase Democratic seats when the party’s anchor population base is likely to lose representation in the next apportionment may prove more difficult than a cursory overview suggests.

Ohio

The Buckeye State conducts redistricting through a bipartisan commission composed of seven elected officials. Because the panel adopted a new map with unanimous support earlier this year, that plan can remain in place for the rest of the decade. As a result, it is unlikely the Commission will reopen the contentious process in 2027.

Oregon

Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is unexpectedly locked in a very tight re‑election race, but redistricting is unlikely to occur regardless of the outcome. The Democratic majority has already maximized its advantage under the current congressional map, leaving little room for improvement. As a result, a 2027 redistricting effort does not appear likely.

Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is likely to win a fourth term, though by a closer‑than‑expected margin. Republicans will retain control of the state Senate, but their House majority may narrow. Because the congressional map was redrawn this year, it is unlikely that redistricting will make a return appearance in 2027.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the gubernatorial and legislative elections will directly determine whether redistricting occurs. The state Supreme Court declined to act on a case that could have triggered a redraw this year, so a Democratic sweep in November is the most plausible path for redistricting to move to the forefront in 2027.

The Governor’s race between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑Minocqua) remains tight, and Republicans currently hold tentative majorities in both legislative chambers. Should Democrats gain control and pursue a redraw, they could potentially add two congressional seats.

Close Race Watch: Kansas Senate

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Senate

For the third time since the 2014 election, the Kansas Senate race is polling close. In both the 2014 and 2020 contests, the Republican candidate, Sen. Pat Roberts in ‘14 and then-Rep. Roger Marshall running in an open race six years ago, appeared to be in trouble in early October but rebounded to score low double-digit victories.

The emerging data in the 2026 Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton race suggests that the same pattern may be reappearing. Sen. Marshall is seeking a second term, while Mr. Hamilton, a first‑time candidate, Methodist pastor, and author, captured a crowded Democratic primary on August 4th with just under 35 percent of the vote.

General election polling is essentially even. Two polling aggregators, 270toWin and RealClearPolitics, show Marshall leading by less than a percentage point, while FiftyPlusOne and Silver Bulletin find Hamilton ahead by similarly narrow margins.

The most recent trend, however, shows movement toward the Republican side. Hamilton held small leads in three polls conducted between Sept. 13 and 24, but surveys from Sept. 22 through Oct. 1 now show Sen. Marshall tied or slightly ahead.

Twelve years ago, when Sen. Roberts appeared headed for defeat, he trailed in 21 of 28 polls conducted from Sept. 1 through Election Day; this, after barely winning his August primary by a 48-41 percent count. Yet, Sen. Roberts ultimately prevailed 53-43.

The 2014 Kansas Senate race also featured a Democratic withdrawal designed to give Independent candidate Greg Orman a one‑on‑one opportunity against the veteran incumbent, similar to the Democratic nominee withdrawals seen this year in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Predictably, the switch to an Independent failed to alter the final outcome.

The 2020 race followed a similar trajectory. Marshall faced a credible Democratic opponent in former state Sen. Barbara Bollier, an 11‑year Republican legislator who later switched parties after endorsing several Democratic candidates and losing key committee assignments. As a result of the legislative discipline imposed upon her, Sen. Bollier left the Republican Party and became a Democrat. Soon after, she became the 2020 Democratic US Senate nominee.

From Sept. 15 through Election Day, Bollier led in three of eleven polls and the pair were tied in two others. In closing surveys from Oct. 25 through Nov. 1, Marshall led in two polls and Bollier, one. The Marshall average lead was only three points, yet he won the election in November, 53-42 percent; an under‑poll factor of more than eight percentage points.

This year, six published polls have appeared since the Aug. 4 primary. Hamilton has led in four, Sen. Marshall in three, with one tie. The latest surveys, from the Trafalgar Group (Sept. 29 – Oct. 1; 1,095 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) and Siena University for the New York Times (Sept. 22–30; 640 likely voters; live interviews), show a tie in Trafalgar’s results and Marshall one point ahead in Siena’s.

In the 2014 Roberts race, the under‑poll factor was 10 points: the final four polls from Fox News, YouGov, and Public Policy Polling averaged a dead heat between Roberts and Orman, yet the Senator won by a full 10 points. In 2020, the closing four polls from Public Policy Polling, GBAO Strategies, VCreek/AMG, and Data for Progress showed Marshall ahead by just over two points, but he won by 11.

If the polling pattern observed in the 2014 and 2020 Kansas Senate races again unfolds in 2026, Sen. Marshall could be positioned to record a comfortable victory on Election Night despite what has been, as with Orman and Bollier before him, a strong Hamilton effort.

Point Race: NY-17

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 5, 2026

House

In every election cycle a handful of contests, and often in the Eastern time zone, serve as early indicators of national trends. One such race in 2026 likely sits in Upstate New York.

In the Empire State’s 17th Congressional District, two‑term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) seeks re‑election against former National Security Council official and Army veteran Cait Conley (D). NY‑17 is one of three districts that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential race that sends a Republican to the US House of Representatives.

The fact that Rep. Lawler, a former state Assemblyman and ex‑Republican Party official, has held a Democratic‑leaning seat underscores his strength as a candidate and ability to attract crossover support.

Lawler first gained national attention in 2022 when he unseated Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then chair of the Democrats’ national campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). He followed that upset with a decisive 52-46 percent victory over former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D) in 2024, in the same election in which Vice President Harris edged Donald Trump 50-49 percent within the district. Four years earlier, Joe Biden defeated President Trump 54-44 percent under slightly different 17th District boundaries.

Rep. Lawler’s durability stems from his aggressive campaign style, strong fundraising (he holds a 4:1 receipts advantage over Conley in 2026), and consistent support from major labor unions. His union backing on economic issues has led to his ranking as one of the top five most bipartisan US House members.

This year, President Trump’s handling of the Iran War is a central issue, and it cuts against Rep. Lawler. Conley’s background with the National Security Council, as a West Point graduate, and serving 16 years as an active duty Army officer, gives her credibility on foreign policy matters.

The district’s political complexion ensures that the outcome here will be close. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NY-17 partisan lean calculation is 52.9D – 46.1R, which is another obvious disadvantage for the incumbent.

Polling has seesawed between the candidates. Immediately after Conley’s strong late‑June Democratic primary win, FM3 Research (June 27-July 1; 509 likely voters) found her leading Lawler 51-45 percent. A month later, co/efficient (July 20–22; 1,292 likely voters) showed Lawler ahead 50-45 percent.

Two contemporary surveys again split: Emerson College (Sept. 27-29; 400 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported Conley with a narrow 48-46 percent edge, while McLaughlin & Associates, polling for the Lawler campaign (Sept. 28-30; 400 likely voters; live interviews), posted the Congressman to a slight 50-47 percent advantage.

The 17th CD serves as the gateway between the New York City metropolitan area and the rural Upstate. It includes Putnam and Rockland counties, about 30 percent of Westchester County’s population, and a small portion of Dutchess County. Though it contains no major city, the district is a collection of small communities – Cortlandt, Carmel, New City, and Peekskill the most recognizable among them – and is home to the US Military Academy at West Point.

NY‑17 should be considered a point race on election night because it is a Democratic‑leaning district represented by a Republican. If Rep. Lawler develops a meaningful lead in early returns, it may signal a stronger‑than‑expected night for Republicans. If Conley prevails, Democrats will have likely opened the gateway to a new House majority.

Utah’s Congressional Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 2, 2026

House

Utah Congressional Districts (Dave’s Redistricing App)

A polling firm has released a full set of surveys in each of Utah’s four newly redrawn congressional districts, and several results suggest closer‑than‑expected contests.

All three Republican incumbents seeking re‑election (a fourth, Rep. Burgess Owens, is retiring) post tighter margins than their voting histories would imply. The lower ballot scores, however, likely stem from each incumbent being forced to represent significantly new territory. With voters less familiar with their new representatives, undecided rates rise accordingly.

Lighthouse Research conducted the polling series for the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah and the Utah Debate Commission. Each survey was fielded between Aug. 31 and Sept. 24 and released on Sept. 29. The four polls sampled between 508 and 515 registered voters per district, using live telephone interviews and online participation.

In the new 1st District, drawn specifically to elect a Salt Lake City Democrat, former Congressman Ben McAdams is a lock to win the general election. He leads Republican Riley Owen by a commanding 63-21 percent.

Creating this district, which contains downtown Salt Lake City along with West Jordan, West Valley City, Millcreek, and Taylorsville, was the focal point of the entire redistricting process and the reason the courts mandated a redraw. Democrats were effectively awarded the seat, giving the party a guaranteed place at the delegation table. The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean of 56.2D – 39.7R is about as Democratic a district as can be reasonably drawn in Utah.

In District 2, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) leads Democrat Peter Crosby by a closer‑than‑expected 39-34 percent in the Lighthouse poll. The new 2nd District lies along the Nevada, Idaho, and Colorado borders and includes North Salt Lake City, Ogden, Logan, Farmington, Brigham City, and Layton. With a DRA partisan lean of 65.6R – 20.1D, the Republican nominee is a prohibitive favorite in any general election.

While most of Rep. Moore’s former 1st District remains within the new 2nd, he loses his northeastern Salt Lake City base, altering the district’s population complexion. His underwhelming 57-43 percent GOP primary win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Clearfield) reflected lingering doubts among Republican voters, but Rep. Moore will easily win in November regardless of this latest poll.

District 3 finds Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) leading Democrat Kent Udell by a comfortable 45-26 percent margin. Rep. Maloy now runs in a district very different from her previous 2nd District seat.

Formerly representing the western sector south of Salt Lake City along the Nevada border all the way to Arizona, her new 3rd District begins east of Salt Lake City, moves south to Arizona, and then cuts west in southern Utah to include her home base in Cedar City and St. George.

With a DRA partisan lean of 70.1R – 24.7D, the new 3rd is the state’s strongest Republican district. The Congresswoman’s toughest race, the GOP primary, which she won 66-34, is already behind her.

Finally, in the new 4th District, freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) leads Democrat Jonny Larsen 42-33 percent. Like Rep. Maloy, Kennedy will represent a completely new sector of the state, shifting from east to west.

The new 4th contains most of the Jordan Valley south of Salt Lake City, including Sandy, Lehi, and Pleasant Grove. With a DRA partisan lean of 67.5R – 27.8D, Rep. Kennedy will have little difficulty winning in November while he becomes acquainted with his new constituency.

The bottom line from a national context is the Democrats will gain one seat in the Utah delegation, but the remaining Republicans all control safe political districts for as long as this map stands.

Close Race Watch: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 1, 2026

With the Senate majority up for grabs, the Michigan race continues to be the national point race toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.

If GOP nominee Mike Rogers wins the race, thus converting a Democratic seat to the Republican column, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to capture enough Republican seats elsewhere to overcome their current 53-47 deficit. If Democrat Abdul El Sayed prevails — combined with the North Carolina seat likely flipping to the Democrats — the path toward the net four seat gain needed to eclipse the Republican majority becomes considerably more achievable.

Republican Rogers, a former seven term Congressman who lost the 2024 open Senate race by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast despite being outspent by a 6:1 ratio, returns with a stronger chance to win in 2026.

Democrats nominated former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department Director El Sayed in a much closer primary than polling had projected. Nine pollsters found him leading by an average of 15 points heading into the August primary, yet he won by only one point — and even failed to carry his home county.

In the general election, polling consistently shows a small El Sayed lead, but those numbers may be deceiving. Polling aggregators — 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin — place his cycle to date advantage between 3.0 and 3.2 points. Since the Aug. 4 primary, the average has slipped to 2.8.

For comparison, at the beginning of October during Rogers’ 2024 campaign, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s polling advantage averaged 6.4 points across 35 surveys conducted from the Aug. 6 primary through Oct. 1. In the final month, Rogers nearly erased the entire margin, with Slotkin ultimately winning by just three-tenths of one percentage point.

Therefore, combining Rogers under-polling in the 2024 general election and El-Sayed’s considerable over-polling in the 2026 Democratic primary suggests that we will again see another close finish in this most critical of Senate campaigns.

Resources are not a problem for either nominee. Through the July 15 pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report, El-Sayed had raised $14.5 million while Rogers had attracted $10.8 million. Because El-Sayed had to overcome two strong Democratic opponents, his available assets were less during the last reporting period. He held $2.2 million, most of which would be spent in the final days before the Aug. 4 primary, whereas Rogers had $4.5 million, most of which he held over for the general election.

Outside spending is heavy on both sides, with media reports suggesting roughly $55 million has been spent on Rogers’ behalf and about $45 million aiding El Sayed.

With President Trump’s approval numbers in the lowest range of his career and gas and grocery prices remaining high, the political climate — and Michigan’s statewide voting history — cuts in El Sayed’s favor. Conversely, El Sayed’s weak primary performance relative to his polling, and his failure to carry Wayne County — signaling limited strength within the Black electorate — gives Rogers a legitimate opening to assemble a winning coalition.

As is the case in virtually every competitive race this cycle, the candidate who maximizes turnout within their own party, rather than mastering the difficult task of persuading wavering voters from the other side, will prevail. At this point in the pivotal Michigan Senate race, it remains to be seen who will perform better.

The Texas Under-Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Polling

Possibly the most‑polled 2026 Senate race is found in the Lone Star State of Texas, but the ballot-test numbers obscure a pattern that has been evident since the 2020 election: a persistent and often significant Republican under‑poll.

Since the May 26 Texas Republican runoff election, 30 public polls have been released from 22 different polling entities including professional survey research firms and academic institutions. From these 30 polls, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) has led in 24 studies with Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ahead in four, while two have produced tied results.

Since Sept. 1, Talarico has led in all but one poll — the Status Intelligence survey (Sept. 22-24; 856 likely voters) showing a 48-48 dead heat. Across the 13 polls released since Sept. 1, Talarico’s average lead is plus-3.3 percentage points. Overlaying the long‑standing Texas polling pattern, however, suggests Paxton may be in better shape than the topline numbers indicate.

From 2020 onward, major polling aggregators — including 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, and the Texas Tribune — have cataloged Texas surveys and calculated average margins for statewide candidates. The results consistently show Republican candidates outperforming their polling averages.

In the 2020 election, President Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points, but the polling average going into the election gave him only a plus-1.2 percent edge over then-former Vice President Joe Biden. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was 4.4.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) was seeking re-election that year against Democrat M.J. Hegar. The aggregate polling average for this race was Cornyn plus-5.8. He was victorious by a 9.6 margin for an under-count just under four percentage points.

In 2022, the only major Texas statewide office on the ballot was the Governor’s election. In that year, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was seeking re-election against former Congressman, 2018 US Senate nominee, and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). Gov. Abbott won the election with a 10.8-point spread but his polling average was only plus-8.9. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was a closer but still significant 1.9.

Turning to 2024 where Donald Trump rebounded to win the presidency and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won a third term we again see the persistent Texas Republican under-poll.

In the presidential campaign, Trump carried the Lone Star State over Kamala Harris with a 13.6 percentage point margin, but his aggregate polling average was a much lesser plus-7.5 heading into the election. Thus, the under-poll factor in this race was 6.1 percentage points.

Sen. Cruz, in his race with then-Congressman Colin Allred (D), saw close polling throughout the campaign. The aggregate polling average for the general election was Cruz plus-4.0, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point margin for an under-poll factor of 4.5 percentage points.

Even in the 2026 Texas Republican primary, we see significant polling misses. While Paxton led the Senate primary election in polling with an aggregate average of plus-4.2, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the initial election with a 1.5-point spread, meaning a 5.7-point Cornyn under-poll.

Though the pollsters correctly projected a Paxton victory in the Republican runoff, their numbers drastically underestimated the final margin. The Paxton aggregate average was plus-10.9 points, but he defeated Sen. Cornyn by 27.6 points, an under-poll figure of 16.7 percentage points.

This cumulative record brings us to the 2026 Senate general election. Across the 30 polls since the runoff, Talarico’s aggregate average lead is plus-3.3 points; since Sept. 1, from 13 polls, his edge has narrowed to plus-1.1 point.

Applying a reasonable under‑poll factor of approximately 3-4 percentage points — consistent with recent statewide races — suggests that Ken Paxton may actually be favorably positioned to score a surprise victory on Nov. 3.

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.

Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

GOP Starting to Spend

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 24, 2026

Finance

While national Republican organizations hold a sizable cash‑on‑hand advantage over their Democratic counterparts, the GOP is now beginning to spend aggressively — and they have substantial resources to deploy.

Among the major presidential and party committees, Republicans are led by President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., along with the Republican National Committee (RNC), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Democrats counter with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Each party also benefits from major outside spending arms aligned with congressional leadership: the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund on the Republican side, and the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC for Democrats.

Collectively, these committees have raised more than $2.5 billion in the current election cycle. The largest single entity is President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., which reported an extraordinary $424,389,502 raised through the Aug. 31 monthly filing. The RNC follows with $316,215,037. In aggregate, Republican committees have taken in $1.555 billion for the 2026 cycle, compared to $964 million for the Democratic committees.

Democrats, however, have been the more aggressive early spenders. Across all major party and party‑affiliated committees, Republicans report a combined cash‑on‑hand total of $1.029 billion, while Democrats hold 38 percent of the GOP total: $392 million.

All financial figures come from committee disclosure reports filed on Aug. 31, except those from the Senate Leadership Fund, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Senate Majority PAC, whose next reporting deadline is Sept. 30, with public access beginning Oct. 15.

Another major funding channel for both parties is their online donor platforms, which serve as conduits for small‑dollar contributions to individual campaigns. These entities act as holding companies, transferring funds to campaigns upon receipt. Though campaigns pay significant fees for the service, they benefit from streamlined fundraising without major overhead.

In this arena, Democrats dominate. Despite ActBlue — the party’s flagship online fundraising platform — facing a congressional investigation over potential foreign contributions and other alleged irregularities, and its leaders invoking their Fifth Amendment rights before congressional committees, the organization continues to operate at full speed.

In this cycle, ActBlue has transferred an extraordinary $2.26 billion to Democratic Senate and House candidates. The Republican counterpart, WINRED, has moved more than $748 million to GOP candidates, or 33 percent of Act Blue’s total.

Even with the significant Democratic advantage in online fundraising, the umbrella Republican apparatus still maintains a $564 million overall financial edge. The next question is how the GOP intends to deploy these resources. The first major answers come in Texas and Ohio.

According to AdImpact, the Senate Leadership Fund — through its Texas affiliate — is reserving $100 million in advertising to support Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin. The investment is critical for Paxton, whose campaign reported just $1.75 million in cash on hand as of June 30, compared to Talarico’s $21.5 million.

AdImpact also reports that Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s campaign is positioned to outspend former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by a $90 million to $60.2 million margin in reserved ad time, not including a newly announced $30 million expenditure from the cryptocurrency‑aligned Super PAC Fairshake.

Fairshake spent heavily in 2024 to help defeat Sen. Brown, who, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, was one of Washington’s most outspoken cryptocurrency critics.

The remaining weeks of the 2026 election cycle are likely to see record‑setting spending. This cycle has already established a new fundraising benchmark, but it will almost certainly be surpassed, and in short order.

Expect the 2028 presidential cycle to be the most expensive in American campaign history — and the gap between first and second place election cycle spending will not even be close.