Close Race Watch: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 1, 2026

With the Senate majority up for grabs, the Michigan race continues to be the national point race toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.

If GOP nominee Mike Rogers wins the race, thus converting a Democratic seat to the Republican column, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to capture enough Republican seats elsewhere to overcome their current 53-47 deficit. If Democrat Abdul El Sayed prevails — combined with the North Carolina seat likely flipping to the Democrats — the path toward the net four seat gain needed to eclipse the Republican majority becomes considerably more achievable.

Republican Rogers, a former seven term Congressman who lost the 2024 open Senate race by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast despite being outspent by a 6:1 ratio, returns with a stronger chance to win in 2026.

Democrats nominated former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department Director El Sayed in a much closer primary than polling had projected. Nine pollsters found him leading by an average of 15 points heading into the August primary, yet he won by only one point — and even failed to carry his home county.

In the general election, polling consistently shows a small El Sayed lead, but those numbers may be deceiving. Polling aggregators — 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin — place his cycle to date advantage between 3.0 and 3.2 points. Since the Aug. 4 primary, the average has slipped to 2.8.

For comparison, at the beginning of October during Rogers’ 2024 campaign, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s polling advantage averaged 6.4 points across 35 surveys conducted from the Aug. 6 primary through Oct. 1. In the final month, Rogers nearly erased the entire margin, with Slotkin ultimately winning by just three-tenths of one percentage point.

Therefore, combining Rogers under-polling in the 2024 general election and El-Sayed’s considerable over-polling in the 2026 Democratic primary suggests that we will again see another close finish in this most critical of Senate campaigns.

Resources are not a problem for either nominee. Through the July 15 pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report, El-Sayed had raised $14.5 million while Rogers had attracted $10.8 million. Because El-Sayed had to overcome two strong Democratic opponents, his available assets were less during the last reporting period. He held $2.2 million, most of which would be spent in the final days before the Aug. 4 primary, whereas Rogers had $4.5 million, most of which he held over for the general election.

Outside spending is heavy on both sides, with media reports suggesting roughly $55 million has been spent on Rogers’ behalf and about $45 million aiding El Sayed.

With President Trump’s approval numbers in the lowest range of his career and gas and grocery prices remaining high, the political climate — and Michigan’s statewide voting history — cuts in El Sayed’s favor. Conversely, El Sayed’s weak primary performance relative to his polling, and his failure to carry Wayne County — signaling limited strength within the Black electorate — gives Rogers a legitimate opening to assemble a winning coalition.

As is the case in virtually every competitive race this cycle, the candidate who maximizes turnout within their own party, rather than mastering the difficult task of persuading wavering voters from the other side, will prevail. At this point in the pivotal Michigan Senate race, it remains to be seen who will perform better.

The Texas Under-Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Polling

Possibly the most‑polled 2026 Senate race is found in the Lone Star State of Texas, but the ballot-test numbers obscure a pattern that has been evident since the 2020 election: a persistent and often significant Republican under‑poll.

Since the May 26 Texas Republican runoff election, 30 public polls have been released from 22 different polling entities including professional survey research firms and academic institutions. From these 30 polls, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) has led in 24 studies with Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ahead in four, while two have produced tied results.

Since Sept. 1, Talarico has led in all but one poll — the Status Intelligence survey (Sept. 22-24; 856 likely voters) showing a 48-48 dead heat. Across the 13 polls released since Sept. 1, Talarico’s average lead is plus-3.3 percentage points. Overlaying the long‑standing Texas polling pattern, however, suggests Paxton may be in better shape than the topline numbers indicate.

From 2020 onward, major polling aggregators — including 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, and the Texas Tribune — have cataloged Texas surveys and calculated average margins for statewide candidates. The results consistently show Republican candidates outperforming their polling averages.

In the 2020 election, President Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points, but the polling average going into the election gave him only a plus-1.2 percent edge over then-former Vice President Joe Biden. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was 4.4.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) was seeking re-election that year against Democrat M.J. Hegar. The aggregate polling average for this race was Cornyn plus-5.8. He was victorious by a 9.6 margin for an under-count just under four percentage points.

In 2022, the only major Texas statewide office on the ballot was the Governor’s election. In that year, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was seeking re-election against former Congressman, 2018 US Senate nominee, and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). Gov. Abbott won the election with a 10.8-point spread but his polling average was only plus-8.9. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was a closer but still significant 1.9.

Turning to 2024 where Donald Trump rebounded to win the presidency and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won a third term we again see the persistent Texas Republican under-poll.

In the presidential campaign, Trump carried the Lone Star State over Kamala Harris with a 13.6 percentage point margin, but his aggregate polling average was a much lesser plus-7.5 heading into the election. Thus, the under-poll factor in this race was 6.1 percentage points.

Sen. Cruz, in his race with then-Congressman Colin Allred (D), saw close polling throughout the campaign. The aggregate polling average for the general election was Cruz plus-4.0, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point margin for an under-poll factor of 4.5 percentage points.

Even in the 2026 Texas Republican primary, we see significant polling misses. While Paxton led the Senate primary election in polling with an aggregate average of plus-4.2, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the initial election with a 1.5-point spread, meaning a 5.7-point Cornyn under-poll.

Though the pollsters correctly projected a Paxton victory in the Republican runoff, their numbers drastically underestimated the final margin. The Paxton aggregate average was plus-10.9 points, but he defeated Sen. Cornyn by 27.6 points, an under-poll figure of 16.7 percentage points.

This cumulative record brings us to the 2026 Senate general election. Across the 30 polls since the runoff, Talarico’s aggregate average lead is plus-3.3 points; since Sept. 1, from 13 polls, his edge has narrowed to plus-1.1 point.

Applying a reasonable under‑poll factor of approximately 3-4 percentage points — consistent with recent statewide races — suggests that Ken Paxton may actually be favorably positioned to score a surprise victory on Nov. 3.

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.

Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

GOP Starting to Spend

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 24, 2026

Finance

While national Republican organizations hold a sizable cash‑on‑hand advantage over their Democratic counterparts, the GOP is now beginning to spend aggressively — and they have substantial resources to deploy.

Among the major presidential and party committees, Republicans are led by President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., along with the Republican National Committee (RNC), the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Democrats counter with the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

Each party also benefits from major outside spending arms aligned with congressional leadership: the Senate Leadership Fund and Congressional Leadership Fund on the Republican side, and the Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC for Democrats.

Collectively, these committees have raised more than $2.5 billion in the current election cycle. The largest single entity is President Trump’s MAGA, Inc., which reported an extraordinary $424,389,502 raised through the Aug. 31 monthly filing. The RNC follows with $316,215,037. In aggregate, Republican committees have taken in $1.555 billion for the 2026 cycle, compared to $964 million for the Democratic committees.

Democrats, however, have been the more aggressive early spenders. Across all major party and party‑affiliated committees, Republicans report a combined cash‑on‑hand total of $1.029 billion, while Democrats hold 38 percent of the GOP total: $392 million.

All financial figures come from committee disclosure reports filed on Aug. 31, except those from the Senate Leadership Fund, Congressional Leadership Fund, and Senate Majority PAC, whose next reporting deadline is Sept. 30, with public access beginning Oct. 15.

Another major funding channel for both parties is their online donor platforms, which serve as conduits for small‑dollar contributions to individual campaigns. These entities act as holding companies, transferring funds to campaigns upon receipt. Though campaigns pay significant fees for the service, they benefit from streamlined fundraising without major overhead.

In this arena, Democrats dominate. Despite ActBlue — the party’s flagship online fundraising platform — facing a congressional investigation over potential foreign contributions and other alleged irregularities, and its leaders invoking their Fifth Amendment rights before congressional committees, the organization continues to operate at full speed.

In this cycle, ActBlue has transferred an extraordinary $2.26 billion to Democratic Senate and House candidates. The Republican counterpart, WINRED, has moved more than $748 million to GOP candidates, or 33 percent of Act Blue’s total.

Even with the significant Democratic advantage in online fundraising, the umbrella Republican apparatus still maintains a $564 million overall financial edge. The next question is how the GOP intends to deploy these resources. The first major answers come in Texas and Ohio.

According to AdImpact, the Senate Leadership Fund — through its Texas affiliate — is reserving $100 million in advertising to support Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin. The investment is critical for Paxton, whose campaign reported just $1.75 million in cash on hand as of June 30, compared to Talarico’s $21.5 million.

AdImpact also reports that Ohio Sen. Jon Husted’s campaign is positioned to outspend former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by a $90 million to $60.2 million margin in reserved ad time, not including a newly announced $30 million expenditure from the cryptocurrency‑aligned Super PAC Fairshake.

Fairshake spent heavily in 2024 to help defeat Sen. Brown, who, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, was one of Washington’s most outspoken cryptocurrency critics.

The remaining weeks of the 2026 election cycle are likely to see record‑setting spending. This cycle has already established a new fundraising benchmark, but it will almost certainly be surpassed, and in short order.

Expect the 2028 presidential cycle to be the most expensive in American campaign history — and the gap between first and second place election cycle spending will not even be close.

Understanding the Polls

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 23, 2027

Senate

Senate polling over the past two weeks shows a modest uptick for Democratic candidates, but the question remains whether these numbers will translate into victories.

If recent election cycles are any guide, the answer is likely no. Data from the past three national elections consistently show that pollsters tend to underestimate Republican strength while more accurately projecting the Democratic vote share.

The pattern is clear when examining four key states in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. All four feature close Senate races this year.

In Texas, the 2020 polling averages suggested President Trump would win by roughly one point; he carried the state by six. In 2024, the averages pointed to a six-point Trump margin, but he ultimately won by 13.

Iowa largely displayed the same trend. Polling in 2020 projected a Trump win of between 1.3 and 2 points; he won by eight. In 2024, the averages showed a lead of about 4.5 points, yet he prevailed by 13.

Ohio followed suit. In 2020, Trump’s polling margin topped out at one point, but he won by eight. In 2024, the averages suggested a lead of 7.6 to 8.8 points; he finished with an 11-point victory.

Alaska also demonstrated this undercounting pattern. In 2020, Trump was projected to win by 5.6 to 7.7 points; he won by 10. In 2024, the averages showed an 8- to 10-point Trump lead; he won by 13.

Republicans hope this underpolling pattern is again present in this year’s Senate races. If pollsters continue to correctly project Democratic strength, those candidates will likely settle in the high 40s as the campaign progresses through the election prime time weeks. The numbers will shift somewhat as early voting approaches in mid October, but the broader trend is worth watching.

The table at top reflects where the dozen most competitive Senate races stand today. Democrats have two clear leaders – Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. The remaining contests are much tighter.

Two of the biggest surprises in this table are the relatively weak Minnesota numbers for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and the somewhat unexpectedly competitive Ohio polling for former Sen. Sherrod Brown. While Brown’s numbers mirror the trajectory that preceded Sen. Bernie Moreno’s upset win in 2024, they still leave him positioned for a potential comeback victory this year.

Except for Georgia and North Carolina, the margins in the other races remain close. The Democratic average in the mid-to-high 40s is encouraging for Republicans, yet Democrats being competitive in so many Republican held states is similarly heartening for the challenging party.

Open-Seat Dynamics

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 22, 2026

The 2026 election cycle has produced major shifts in the open‑seat category, particularly in the House. Although 73 US House seats are currently being contested without an incumbent, the total number of seats that became open at some point during the 119th Congress is actually 83.

Ten of these vacancies were later filled through special elections. While recent cycles since 2012 have all featured large numbers of open seats, none have matched the volume seen this year.

Early media commentary framed the high number of departures as an exodus driven by frustration with Washington and, specifically, with President Trump. The data actually tells a more nuanced story.

Of the original 83 incumbents who are not seeking re‑election, only 32 are retiring from elective politics, and the partisan breakdown is nearly even: 15 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The remaining departures stem from other causes.

Five members have died since the 119th Congress convened on Jan. 3, 2025. Seven resigned, including two who accepted Administration appointments, though one, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, withdrew from consideration for US Attorney General after it became clear he would not be confirmed. The other resignations were tied to controversy or scandal.

Another 28 House members are not leaving politics at all; instead, they chose to run for other offices: 16 for the Senate, 11 for Governor, and one for state Attorney General. Of these 28, only 13 won their party’s nomination. Additionally, 11 incumbents – seven Democrats and four Republicans – were defeated for renomination.

Against this backdrop, one of the most significant developments in the open‑seat category is the sharp rise in competitive and highly competitive races. At the start of the cycle, only three open seats appeared likely to change party hands. As the campaign season has progressed, that number has grown substantially. Today, 18 open seats present realistic opportunities for a party flip, including 12 rated as highly competitive.

Ten of these highly competitive seats are currently held by Republicans, giving Democrats a larger pool of conversion opportunities. This is particularly important given that Democrats need to flip only three Republican seats to reach the 218‑seat threshold for majority control. After redistricting in 10 states, the number of potential Democratic flips could rise to 12.

The Senate also features an unusually large number of open seats. Of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, 16 are open – meaning the Senator elected in 2020 is not seeking re‑election. Twelve of these vacancies are Republican.

Most of the departing Senators are retiring due to age; two are over 80, and all but one would be over 70 at the end of another term. Three Senators left office to accept Administration positions, triggering special elections in Florida and Ohio, which are not normally in cycle this year.

Two Senators, Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) and John Cornyn (R‑TX), were defeated for renomination, and one, Lindsey Graham (R‑SC), passed away. Only one Senator, Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville, is leaving to run for another office (Governor).

Seven of the open Senate races are highly competitive, with a realistic chance that voters will elect a candidate from the opposite party of the departing incumbent. The most hotly contested open seats are in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

Taken together, these House and Senate dynamics mean that at least 99 of the 535 members of the next Congress will be new to Washington compared to those elected in the previous cycle. Such a turnover will almost certainly shape the character and priorities of the next legislative session.

Assessing House Momentum

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 21, 2026

House

Perusing most political media – and now the prediction markets – the prevailing wisdom holds that Democrats will claim the House majority in November. The central question is, however, from where do those 218-plus seats come?

Examining the national map, roughly 45 House seats across 25 states appear genuinely competitive. A potential flaw in much of the prevailing analysis is an underestimation of the new redistricting maps and the number of seats likely to move toward Republicans as a result. Redistricting remains a meaningful mitigating factor against projected Democratic gains.

Within the 45 most competitive races, at least 15 Republican‑held seats appear positioned to flip to the Democrats. Countering this, however, are as many as 13 Democratic seats that could move toward Republicans, largely due to favorable redistricting. If this scenario materialized, Democrats would fall just short of a majority, producing a 218R–217D House.

Expanding to the next tier of competitiveness, Democrats appear viable in an additional 15 seats, stretching their theoretical gain to 30. Subtracting the Republicans’ potential 13 pickups yields a 17‑seat Democratic gain, translating to a 232D–203R majority.

A more realistic outlook may place Democrats flipping about 20 Republican seats, while Republicans counter with 10- to 13-seat gains. Under the lower GOP estimate – 10 seats – the House would stand at 225D–210R.

Across the 25 competitive states, Democrats could plausibly take four to five Republican seats in California and one in Utah, with additional single‑seat opportunities in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. None, however, are guaranteed.

Republicans, meanwhile, are positioned to convert Democratic seats in Texas (3-5), Florida (3-4), and single seats in Alabama, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Tennessee – again, with no guaranteed flips.

Several states feature multiple battlegrounds: two competitive districts in Arizona, three in Iowa, and three of four districts in Nevada, for example.

Additional multi‑seat battlegrounds lie in Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with single‑district opportunities in Kentucky, Montana, New Mexico, and Washington. With House competition active in half the country, the political terrain is broad.

Recent voter registration trends offer further electoral clues. Of the 25 competitive states for US House races, 16 register by political party.

Since the 2024 general election, Democrats have gained registration strength in only four of the 16 states (Iowa, New Jersey, New York, and Utah).

Republicans have gained in seven (California, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York), while Independent or non‑affiliated voters have grown the most, increasing in 11 of the 16 party‑registration states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Utah).

Both parties lost registrants in eight states, largely due to voter‑file purges that various state laws individually mandate. These purges remove inactive voters, often in sizable numbers. In all eight states where both parties declined, Republicans lost fewer voters than Democrats, a pattern that could further mitigate some of the Democratic gains many prognosticators expect.

The picture shifts again when factoring in the substantial growth among Independent/non‑affiliated voters. While registration alone cannot determine their partisan lean, most voters in this category ultimately favor a particular party.

Even though Democrats appear to be losing more registrants than Republicans, a strong Democratic lean among the expanding Independent bloc could offset some of that loss and meaningfully reshape the electoral landscape.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.