By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Redistricting
One of the most bizarre campaigns in recent memory is currently unfolding in the Old Dominion. On April 21, Virginians will cast final votes on a congressional redistricting referendum that will change the state’s 6D-5R map into a 10D-1R plan under the guise of “fairness.”
At this point, the Virginia referendum campaign is one of the most disingenuous ever because all sides, including the official Department of Elections, are part of the chaos.
The old saying, “you can’t tell the players without a scorecard,” seems to be applicable here, but even with a political scorecard a voter would be confused.
Let’s begin with the official state approved ballot language, as follows:
“Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia’s standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?”
Restore fairness? The current map is 6D-5R in a state that voted 51.8 – 46.0% for Kamala Harris and, while electing a Democratic Governor in 2025, supported a Republican Governor in the previous election. Yet, the new map would give the Democrats 91 percent of the congressional seats.
The Virginia Supreme Court justices have also been less than forthcoming. They are saying they are still in the process of hearing whether the redistricting process can proceed because a lower court ruling said it cannot; that’s because the legislature itself violated its own rules in passing the referendum legislation, and the justices are allowing the statewide vote to take place. So, if the people vote for the referendum to redraw the districts, is the court going to reject their preference? Simply, no.
The Democratic campaign has been overwhelming so far, dominating the airwaves largely with ads from former President Barack Obama and Gov. Abigail Spanberger talking heroically about how they are “restoring a level playing field” with their 10D-1R map. This, after being on record time after time opposing gerrymandering when it cuts against their own party.
Perhaps the biggest stretch, however, is the Democratic campaign directly tying the abortion issue to passing the redistricting map, saying that “President Trump and the MAGA extremists” are planning to pass a national law to ban abortion. There is no evidence of such and passing this type of bill at least through the Senate is a realistic impossibility under the current filibuster rules. The ad verbiage also presumes the GOP has a majority to pass such a measure, which is also improbable.
The Republican response, which has so far been shockingly minimal despite understanding that the new Virginia map would put the Democrats in a much stronger position to capture the House majority, is also getting into the sleight of hand act.
The Virginians for Fair Maps organization are mailing post cards telling voters to join President Obama and Gov. Spanberger in opposing gerrymandering. They use previous public comments from the two when redistricting in Virginia and other places did not favor Democrats. Then the mailers tell voters to join Obama and Spanberger in opposing gerrymandering by voting “No” in the special referendum election.
One Republican advantage, even with their lackluster campaign, is that the “No” position is typically an easier argument to make in ballot proposition campaign strategy, and the Virginians for Fair Maps organization is using that edge to confuse voters with their Obama/Spanberger gerrymandering boomerang.
The Republicans’ early minimal response to what could be a devastating result for them is even more surprising when looking at the preference data. The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University just released a new statewide poll (March 26-31; 1,101 registered Virginia voters) finding the referendum passing, but with only a 52-47 percent margin within their response segment of likely voters.
Early voting is already underway. So far, according to the Virginia Public Access Project statistics, 646,493 ballots have been cast for an average turnout in the localities (in Virginia, residents are either in a city or a county but not both) of 11.9 percent. In the 2024 presidential election, as a point of comparison, 4.5 million individuals voted.
Though the campaign has been universally disingenuous to a very high degree, the referendum will likely pass, particularly if the Republican leadership continues to run their minimal response effort. Still, political prime time for this April 21 election is just beginning, so seeing the GOP launch a major ending media blitz remains a possibility.
