Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 14, 2025

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D)

Yesterday, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) surprisingly announced that she will retire when the current term expires and not seek re-election in 2026.

Sen. Smith, in an open letter stated that ” … as much as I love my work, I’m fortunate enough to be able to say that my work is only part of what makes up my life. And after two decades of hard, rewarding work in public service, I’m ready to prioritize other things — starting with my family.”

Sen. Smith is the second Senate incumbent, and second Democrat, to forgo re-election in 2026. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) last week announced that he would not stand for a third term. Tina Smith, then Minnesota’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Al Franken (D) resigned under a scandal cloud. She was elected in her own right in 2020, defeating former Congressman Jason Lewis (R) with a closer than expected 49-44 percent victory margin.

Most likely, the early attention about who might run to succeed Sen. Smith will center around Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. Minnesota has no statewide term limits, and there has already been much discussion as to whether Walz would seek a third term. To date, the Governor has not made public his 2026 political intentions. Now, expect the political conjecture to revolve around whether Gov. Walz will run for the Senate.

Speculation about other potential Democratic contenders will likely include Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) and even possibly former Sen. Franken, among others. It is probable that the Democratic political community will be frozen, however, until Gov. Walz makes a decision regarding his own political future.

The Republican side has less obvious candidates since the party holds no statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. In fact, the last Republican Senate victory here occurred in 2002 when Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale after the death of Democratic Sen. Paul Wellstone less than a month before the November election.

Earlier in the week, Jim Schutz, who lost the 2022 Attorney General race by less than a percentage point, indicated that he would consider a potential gubernatorial bid. With a Senate seat now open, Schultz would have to be considered a possible federal office contender.

Speculation will undoubtedly include the state’s four Republican US Representatives: Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Delano), Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal), and Pete Stauber (R-Hermantown/Duluth). It is probable all will remain in their current positions since a statewide run is a well under 50/50 victory proposition for any Republican candidate.

Another GOP name that may surface is that of former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who served from 2003-2011. Still only 64 years old, Pawlenty may be in position for a political comeback.

At the end of the day, the Democrats will be favored to hold the Senate seat, but their statewide victory margins are thinning.

Even with Gov. Walz on the national Democratic ticket, the party’s 2024 Minnesota victory margin dropped to 4.2 percentage points in comparison with the result from the previous four years. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state with a 7.1 point spread. The state was closer in 2016. Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump here with only a 1.5 percent margin. In the immediate previous election cycles the Democratic victory result was much larger. President Barack Obama won Minnesota with 7.6 (2012) and 10.3 (2008) percent point spreads.

The Smith retirement now means we can add Minnesota to the list of highly combative 2026 political battleground states.

Ex-Ohio State Football Coach Appointed Lieutenant Governor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 13, 2024

Governor

Jim Tressel

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) announced at a news conference that he has appointed former Ohio State head football coach and ex-Youngstown State University president Jim Tressel to fill the state’s vacant Lieutenant Governor’s position.

The office came open when the Governor appointed Jon Husted (R) to the US Senate to replace Vice President J.D. Vance. Immediately, reporters pummeled Tressel with questions regarding whether he would run for Governor next year, queries that both he and DeWine avoided answering.

In Ohio, the Lieutenant Governor runs on a ticket with the Governor. In 2018, during the open Republican primary, Husted, then Secretary of State, was competing against DeWine in the Republican gubernatorial primary along with then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor. Because it appeared that DeWine and Husted could split the center-right vote, which could reasonably have allowed Taylor to win after consolidating the political right, a deal was cut.

Husted offered then-Attorney General DeWine a proposition where he would exit the Governor’s race and run as the latter’s Lieutenant Governor running mate. DeWine accepted the arrangement and the two went onto victories in both the 2018 Republican primary and general elections. In 2022, the DeWine-Husted ticket won re-election with just over 62 percent of the vote.

Their teamwork plan included DeWine then supporting Husted for Governor in 2026, something that the Governor was prepared to do until the state’s junior Senator, J.D. Vance, was elected Vice President. At first, the Lieutenant Governor indicated he wanted to stay in the Governor’s race and battle Attorney General Dave Yost for the party nomination. It always appeared, however, that Husted was the obvious choice to take the Senate seat and was eventually prevailed upon to take that role.

Now businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is, with great fanfare, about to enter the Republican gubernatorial primary and polling suggests he begins with an overwhelming lead. State Treasurer Robert Sprague, who was briefly a gubernatorial candidate, exited the Governor’s race and endorsed Ramaswamy who is not yet even an official contender. Term-limited Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2022 and was considered a potential entry into the Governor’s race, late last week announced instead a bid for state Auditor.

Therefore, DeWine’s move to Tressel could be a plan to at least make the Republican gubernatorial campaign more competitive should the latter man, popular with high name ID due to his championship run as an Ohio State football coach, decide to run for Governor.

Tressel coached at Ohio State for 10 years and won a national championship. He resigned under a cloud, however, as the university was cited for recruitment violations under his domain. Prior to his coaching tenure with the state’s premier college football program, he coached for 14 seasons at Youngstown State. Regardless of the details concerning his exit from Ohio State, Tressel still enjoys a generally positive personal image.

At the apex of his coaching career, it was speculated upon that Tressel might mount challenges to then-Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In both of those election years, however, Tressel chose not to run. Therefore, it is far from certain that he will enter the current Governor’s race.

For his part, Ramaswamy says he will make “a big announcement” in late February. All expect him to announce his gubernatorial candidacy at that time. Certainly, his involvement, and now possibly Tressel’s, is making the open Ohio Governor’s campaign possibly the premier 2026 political contest in terms of attracting national media attention. Expect this pattern to continue for quite some time.

Pete Buttigieg Leads in Michigan Democratic Primary Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

Senate

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson

A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) and sees Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail “in low single digits,” according to the Blueprint analysis.

Sen. McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor’s contest.

Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88 percent name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split. Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82 percent name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56 percent questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45 percent responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16 percent over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15 percent versus Nessel), liberals (47-18 percent against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14 percent opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16 percent).

Sen. McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Nessel 28-21 percent in her 3rd CD but trails badly elsewhere. Sen. McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, “Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.”

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers, who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate seat in the 2024 election.

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election.

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

New Jersey Free-For-All

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill

Two late January political surveys post Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) holding small leads in the crowded 2025 New Jersey Democratic gubernatorial primary, but all six candidates remain very much in the running.

Public Policy Polling (Jan. 22-23; 615 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters) finds Rep. Sherrill clinging to a 16-11-9-9-9-5 percent edge over New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, while the next three contenders, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, are all tied and slightly ahead of Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff).

A day earlier, Emerson College finished their statewide poll (Jan. 18-21; 437 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters; 334 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) which also saw a jumbled Democratic field with most voters responding that they have yet to make a determinative decision.

According to the Emerson data, Rep. Sherrill also records a small lead but with a spread even tighter than PPP’s finding. The Emerson ballot test projects a 10-8-8-7-7-4 percent posting with Sherrill leading followed by Spiller, Mayor Baraka, Rep. Gottheimer, Sweeney, and Mayor Fulop. Again, this data suggests that the Democratic primary race is wide open, and all six contenders could still develop momentum to win the June 10 plurality primary.

The eventual Democratic nominee, according to the Emerson poll, is likely to face 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, a former state Assemblyman who lost to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in a 51-48 percent finish that was much closer than expected.

The Emerson poll also forecasts Ciattarelli with a large but not insurmountable Republican primary lead. According to the ballot test results, the 2021 gubernatorial nominee would lead radio talk show host Bill Spadea, 26-13 percent, with state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield) posting four percent, while five other minor candidates poll support figures of three percent or less.

Political party registration in New Jersey, according to the NJ Division of Elections latest data (Feb. 1, 2025, report), finds Democrats holding a 37.4 – 24.4 percent edge in partisan affiliation. A total of 37.0 percent are unaffiliated, with slightly less than one percent of the electorate being registered in a minor political party.

Republicans, however, have gained a half-percentage point in relation to the Democrats in the three-plus months since the 2024 election. This translates into a net Republican gain of 23,061 voters. In this period, Republican registration has grown 22,686 while the Democrats have dropped 375 registered voters. In January alone, the GOP net gain factor was 10,480 individuals. Should this trend continue through the 2025 election period, the November contest could turn into a highly competitive political affair.

Resources will, of course, be a major factor in the candidates moving forward. One would believe that both Reps. Sherril and Gottheimer would be dominant on the fundraising front, yet the state rules are different. Both Representatives have become two of the most prolific fundraisers in the US House, but they face a major obstacle in their respective gubernatorial bids.

Under current New Jersey financial disclosure reports, both Reps. Sherrill and Gottheimer are on the low end of the spectrum (each raising under $1.7 million – Fulop leads all candidates with just over $2.8 million raised), but that doesn’t include the transfers the federal candidates can execute. Here is where the state law penalizes the two House members. Under the state’s campaign finance law, only $17,300 can be transferred from a candidate’s committee to another committee.

According to the year-end Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Gottheimer had just over $20 million in his congressional account, meaning he can only transfer less than one percent of his available funds. Rep. Sherrill posted just over $183,000 cash-on-hand, which means $166,000 is nontransferable.

Featuring such a crowded and unclear Democratic primary with all candidates basically on even footing, the New Jersey Governor’s race promises to be one of the more interesting statewide contests slated for this year.

Rep. Donalds Atop New Gov Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new Florida Republican primary poll suggests that three-term Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holds an early commanding lead over selected potential 2026 candidates who will compete for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears to be a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters’ poll (Jan. 26-27; 850 likely Florida 2026 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.

It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.

Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state’s conservative voter base.

Gov. DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds’ current standing in the 2026 Governor’s campaign as entirely positive. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, DeSantis’ opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.

The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire new slate of statewide officials.

With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida’s new Attorney General.

With Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lieutenant Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor’s race.

Furthermore, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle’s 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new state CFO.

The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Rep. Cord Byrd in 2022.

Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.

Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.

Florida voter registration largely tells the story. At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals according to the Florida Secretary of State’s official voter registration statistical report. The most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, finds not only Republicans having more party members, but they hold an astonishing 1,156,082 individual advantage over the Florida Democrats. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the preceding four years.

While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to all of the statewide public officials coming via his appointments.

Another Sanford Comeback?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 7, 2025

Governor

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Some political figures seem to never go away. The Down Ballot political blog is reporting that former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R) may return for another campaign.

Sanford who concluded his time as Governor in disgrace pertaining to an extramarital affair with an Argentinian woman in 2011, only to return to win a US House special election in 2013 for a seat that he had previously held before losing a renomination primary in 2018, says he may attempt yet another political comeback.

Sanford said Wednesday that he is considering again running for Governor when the post comes open in 2026. Gov. Henry McMaster (R), now the longest-serving chief executive in state history, is ineligible to seek a third full term next year. Other Republicans considering running for Governor are Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

The Palmetto State promises to be an interesting political domain in 2026. South Carolina will host its first open gubernatorial race since 2010 when then-state Rep. Nikki Haley succeeded Sanford. In that crowded race for Governor, Haley defeated then-Attorney General McMaster, then-Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, and then-Congressman Gresham Barrett. She out-polled state Sen. Vincent Shaheen (D) in the general election.

In 2014, Gov. Haley was easily re-elected, and McMaster returned to state office in winning the Lieutenant Governor’s post. He would then ascend to the Governorship in 2017 when Haley was appointed US Ambassador to the United Nations in the first Trump Administration. Gov. McMaster would win two terms in his own right, in 2018 and 2022.

Should Sanford enter the 2026 race, a chaotic campaign would likely ensue involving veteran political figures. Lt. Gov. Evette has been in office since 2019 and AG Wilson, son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale/Aiken), has held his post since the beginning of 2011. Rep. Mace was elected to the House in 2020, after serving a term in the state House of Representatives and running for the US Senate in 2014.

Therefore, Sanford again appearing on the political stage in no way suggests that he would have an easy time securing another term as Governor.

After leaving the Governorship under a scandal cloud in 2011 Sanford was able to return to the US House, an institution where he originally served from 1995-2001. He won a 2013 special election to his former 1st Congressional District when then-Rep. Tim Scott (R) was appointed to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).

During his return tenure in the House, Sanford became a vocal critic of then-President Donald Trump, which ultimately caused him to lose renomination in 2018. State Rep. Katie Arrington defeated Sanford in that year’s Republican primary, but largely due to a near fatal auto accident that almost cost her life, she would lose the general election to Democrat Joe Cunningham who would then lose his 2020 re-election race to current Congresswoman Mace. In 2022, Cunningham won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination but lost to Gov. McMaster, 58-41 percent.

The state could also feature another interesting statewide campaign. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) is running for a fifth term but could face significant primary opposition. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) continues to confirm that he is considering launching such a challenge.

While Sen. Graham would be favored for renomination, Rep. Norman, with his backing from the South Carolina GOP’s strongly conservative base, would be a formidable opponent.

In 2020, Sen. Graham was in a difficult general election battle with Democrat Jaime Harrison who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised more than $130 million in his race against Sen. Graham, and the contest transformed into a virtual national campaign. Though significantly outspent and facing tight polls, the Senator prevailed with a substantial 54-44 percent re-election victory margin.

While the Palmetto State political scene has been quiet since the last Graham election, it appears that the 2026 cycle will produce political fireworks that will again attract substantial national attention.

The Closest House Races (Part II)

US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 6, 2025

House

Yesterday, we looked at the six closest House races of the 2024 election cycle, and today we conclude our report with the other five contests where the winner finished with less than 51 percent of the vote.

We begin with three Pennsylvania races, two of which flipped from Democrat to Republican and are a large part of the reason the GOP held its slim majority.

2026 US House Outlook

In the Lehigh Valley’s 7th Congressional District, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) with a 50.5 – 49.5 percent victory margin translating into a vote spread of 4,062 votes. Rep. Wild had two close calls in her previous elections, but facing a different opponent who was better able to take advantage of increased Republican voter registration along with better national messaging proved enough to turn the tables. Freshman Rep. Mackenzie became one of just four Republican challengers nationally to defeat a House Democratic incumbent.

A similar fate awaited Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) in the congressional seat just to the north of the Lehigh Valley. Cartwright, first elected in 2012 from a district much more favorable to Democratic candidates, lost in November to Republican businessman Rob Bresnahan. The GOP victory margin here was 50.8 – 49.2 percent, meaning a vote difference of 6,252. The PA-8 district, carrying a rating of R+8, was the second most Republican district to abandon a Democratic incumbent in this election. Additionally, Rep. Cartwright was the most senior Democrat to lose his 2024 bid for re-election.

In central Pennsylvania, Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/ Harrisburg), no stranger to competitive campaigns, clinched a seventh term over former local news anchor Janelle Stelson (D) by 5,133 votes, or 50.6 – 49.4 percent. This was Perry’s closest re-election battle, but the redistricted 10th CD is much more Democratic than the version from which he originally won back in 2012. Furthermore, Stelson proved to be Rep. Perry’s most formidable opponent. It remains to be seen if she will return for a re-match in 2026.

Turning south, first-term North Carolina Democratic Congressman Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) claimed a second term with a tight 49.5 – 47.8 percent win over retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R) in a redistricted seat that became much more Republican than the district Davis won two years earlier.

The legislature passed the 2023 North Carolina redistricting plan after Republicans assumed control of the state Supreme Court. This development led to a uniform redistricting approach between the courts and the state legislature. The new district boundaries not only made Davis’ 1st District more Republican but converted three Democratic seats to the GOP column. This map, along with the Democratic incumbent defeats in Pennsylvania and Colorado, largely accounted for Republicans holding the House majority.

The final close race is located in the Omaha, Nebraska area. As we know, Nebraska and Maine allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The Cornhusker State’s 2nd District has voted Democratic for President in the most recent consecutive elections, but then turned around to repeatedly re-elect Republican Congressman Don Bacon (R-Papillion).

In the 2024 election, Bacon won a fifth term with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent vote margin (5,829 vote spread), which is a consistent result with his most recent re-election battles. NE-2 is becoming one of the more quintessential swing districts in the country and, along with Maine’s 2nd District that swings in the opposite direction, attracts a great deal of national political attention because of having potential undue influence on the presidential race.

We can expect to see all eleven of the ‘24 closest House elections once again becoming battleground regions in the 2026 election cycle. With the House having one of its closest majorities in history, every competitive district will have a major effect upon the full House outcome; and, with it determination over which party will assume control over the next Congress.