Nebraska & WV Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Two more states are holding their regular primary elections today: the Cornhusker State of Nebraska and the Mountain State of West Virginia. We have entered a primary election cycle where various states hold primaries every week from now through June 30. In May, primaries will be held today, the 12th, and on the 16th, 19th and 26th. In June, 17 more primaries will be held on every Tuesday of the month — on the 2nd, 9th, 18th, 23rd, and 30th.

Nebraska

Several Nebraska races are of note today, but none more unique than the US Senate Democratic primary.

As we saw in 2024, Independent Dan Osborn emerged as the de facto Democratic challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) with the party’s official support. This year, he returns to challenge Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who is on the ballot seeking his first full six-year term.

Ricketts, the state’s former Governor, was appointed in 2023 to replace resigned Sen. Ben Sasse (R). He was then elected in 2024 with 62 percent of the vote to serve the remaining two years of the current term.

The Democratic primary is the race to watch tonight. Two candidates are on the ballot, and the eventual nominee could ultimately withdraw from the race.

Democratic activist Cindy Burbank previously stated that she supports Dan Osborn and would withdraw from the race and endorse him if she became the Democratic nominee. The Secretary of State subsequently disqualified her candidacy, citing a Nebraska law requiring candidates to sign an oath affirming that they will assume office if elected. Burbank challenged the decision in court, and a judge later reinstated her candidacy.

The other Democratic candidate is pastor Bill Forbes, who says he supports Sen. Ricketts. So, it is likely that he would remain on the ballot should he win the party nomination in order to draw some Democratic votes away from Mr. Osborn.

Neither Democratic primary candidate has raised significant funds. According to the March 31 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Burbank had raised just $4,296 for her campaign, while Pastor Forbes reported only $1,000.

All of this points toward a general election featuring Sen. Pete Ricketts and Independent Dan Osborn. The race is expected to become expensive, but the Senator remains the clear favorite to win comfortably, regardless of what early polling may suggest.

Gov. Jim Pillen is seeking a second term and faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Democrats, meanwhile, are holding a two-way primary, with former state Sen. Lynne Walz, a cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D), expected to win the party’s nomination tonight. Gov. Pillen is favored for re-election.

Two of the state’s three congressional incumbents are seeking re-election. Rep. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk) is unopposed for renomination and will likely face former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Backemeyer, who is expected to emerge from tonight’s Democratic primary. With a partisan lean of 56.7R – 40.4D, according to Dave’s Redistricting App, Rep. Flood should face little difficulty in the general election.

Third District veteran Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Gering) sees only minor opposition in tonight’s Republican primary. He represents Nebraska’s safest Republican congressional district, with a partisan lean of 75.2 – 22.8D according to Dave’s Redistricting App. NE-3 is a sprawling district that stretches across the state from the Wyoming and Colorado borders to the Iowa and Missouri lines.

The state’s key general election battle will take place in the Omaha anchored 2nd Congressional District, where five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) is retiring. The district’s electorate has twice voted against President Trump, supporting Kamala Harris 52-47 percent in 2024 and Joe Biden with a 52-46 percent margin in 2020.

The 2nd District is considered one of Democrats’ top conversion opportunities in the country. Republicans will formally nominate Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding tonight, as he runs unopposed for the party’s nomination.

The Democratic field is crowded, with six candidates competing for the nomination. The contest is largely centered on state Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father served in the US House in the 1970s, political consultant and Democratic activist Denise Powell, and former US Department of Veterans Affairs Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins.

West Virginia

A quiet primary night is expected in the Mountain State. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) is seeking a third term and, although she faces five Republican challengers, the most notable being state Sen. Tom Willis (R-Berkeley), she is widely expected to secure renomination with ease. Sen. Capito is also a prohibitive favorite in the general election.

In the House, Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington) faces only a minor opponent in tonight’s primary. In the 2nd District, freshman Rep. Riley Moore (R-Harpers Ferry) is unopposed for renomination. Both incumbents are considered strong favorites for re-election in November.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

Redistricting: Tennessee & Alabama

Click on the map above to see a larger image size, or go here to see the map on the Tennessee Legislature’s site: https://www.capitol.tn.gov/common/img/US-House_2026_Proposed.jpg

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 8, 2026

Tennessee

The Volunteer State’s legislature passed a new congressional map, and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed the legislation into law late this week. The map will likely produce a new 9R-0D congressional delegation.

Principally, the map divides the previous 9th District that contained the city of Memphis and was almost wholly contained in Shelby County into sections. The draw creates a new 9th CD that houses part of Shelby County but then stretches to the outer Nashville suburbs. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) has represented the 9th CD since the beginning of 2007 as a Caucasian in a 60 percent African American district.

Despite having a white Representative, the 9th was a protected majority minority district under the Voting Rights Act. With last week’s US Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana case, the TN-9 District may be redrawn because race can now be used as a factor in redistricting only if the underlying situation involves prisons or if there is demonstrative evidence that a racial community historically has been directly barred access to voting. Since neither of the criteria exists in this area, the new map was drawn.

The new 9th stretches from the south Memphis suburbs easterly along the Mississippi border and past the city of Shelbyville before turning north to move into the outer Nashville suburbs found in Franklin County. The seat transforms from one where Kamala Harris attracted 70.8 percent of the district vote to a CD where President Trump would have defeated her with a 59.9 – 38.8 percent margin.

Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Columbia) 5th District is also vastly different under the new map. Part of the reason for the drastic change was to give Rep. Ogles a different Republican district to help him survive certain political fallout that was endangering his re-election chances.

The 5th, while continuing to begin in the area south and west of Nashville, then moves northwest to capture part of the city of Clarksville near the Kentucky border before moving to the Missouri border and then south along the Arkansas border all the way through Shelby County and the city of Memphis to Mississippi. The new 5th would have yielded President Trump a 60.9 – 37.8 percent win, a slight uptick over the previous 5th CD where Trump defeated Harris, 58.1 – 40.3 percent.

The new map changes every congressional district in Tennessee’s central and western regions. The most negatively affected seat for an incumbent is Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Germantown), who sees his 8th CD that occupies most of far western Tennessee and stretches from the Kentucky border to Mississippi into one that has a more west to east construction.

In terms of partisanship, Kustoff takes a major hit but would still have a solidly Republican district. Under the previous 8th, President Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 70.0 – 28.9 percent spread. Under the new plan, the Trump victory margin would have been 59.4 – 39.2 percent or a negative swing from Rep. Kustoff’s perspective of a net 20.9 points. Still, the new 8th will be rated as safely Republican.

Aside from Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Kingsport) northeastern District 1 where President Trump would have captured 78.4 percent of the vote, the remaining 8 congressional districts all fall between 67.2 percent Trump to 59.4 percent.

With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline already passed, but the state’s primary not until Aug. 6, the Governor has plenty of time to change the US House filing schedule in order to implement the new map for the 2026 election.

Alabama

Decisions were made with regard to Alabama redistricting, too. Because this state is in precisely the same situation as Louisiana, their remedy will be similar. Instead of drawing a new map, however, the legislature says it will revert to a plan passed in 2023, but which was declared a racial gerrymander.

With the ruling criteria established from the Callais v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court, the legislative leaders believe the previously drawn 2023 map will be legal under the definitive SCOTUS ruling. Therefore, they have reinstituted the plan. The question remains as to whether a court will approve the maneuver in time for the 2026 election.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, so obviously the Governor will have to establish a new nomination date for the state’s US House races. Should the 2023 map stand, it is likely that freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will be the odd man out, since this map basically restores the footprint of the 2021 map. This means that both the cities of Mobile and Montgomery will anchor their own districts as opposed to being placed in the same 1st District as is the current case.

The change to the 2023 map would very likely return Alabama to a 6R-1D delegation as compared to the current 5R-2D division.

The Ohio Outlook

To see an interactive view of this 2026 Ohio Congressional Districts map, click on the image above or go to Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Ohio Elections

The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday, and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.

The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.

It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000-plus more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.

We can expect this year’s race to be expensive, and it will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.

The open Governor’s race, featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s COVID response, so expect her decision to advocate and implement a full shutdown during the pandemic to become a campaign issue.

In the US House campaigns in Ohio, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who won Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary, was also the nominee in 2024; in that ’24 contest, Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.

The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44 percent margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.

The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red-hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.

In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46 percent victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53 percent victory total.

Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net 10-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.

Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote against two opponents.

But the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.

Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.

Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49 percent victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Democrat Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.

The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.

In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.

It remains to be seen if Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.

Finally, in what is clearly a long-shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.

The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44 percent in the last election.

Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to fund other races.

Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

Indiana & Ohio Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Voting started up again yesterday in two Midwestern states, ending a primary lull since March. The month of May will host nine more primaries and a series of 16 Texas federal runoff elections (One US Senate; 15 US House).

Voters in Indiana and Ohio chose their nominees yesterday, and the Hoosier state Senate races stole the show. There are just two contested statewide elections in Indiana this year (Secretary of State; Comptroller) and no US Senate race.

Ohio will feature an open Governor’s campaign along with a hotly contested US Senate race between appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) and former US Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in addition to at least two major US House contests.

Indiana

The Indiana Senate refused to pass a redistricting map that would have enhanced the Republican standing in the US House, and President Trump threatened to target and defeat the seven GOP incumbents who foiled the redraw. The President followed through on his threat and proved successful as five of the seven targeted Senators fell to crushing defeats last night.

Possibly as a side effect of the Indiana redistricting issue, it is arguable that all Hoosier State Republican congressional incumbents who drew opposition under-performed even when winning renomination.

Freshman Rep. Jefferson Shreve (R-Indianapolis), despite having literally a 100:1 advantage in campaign resources ($2.3 million to $22,000) over his opponent was renominated with just 53 percent of the vote.

Three-term Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) won with a 60-40 percent margin against a Republican opponent who literally spent no money on her campaign. Similarly, incumbent Marlin Stutzman (R-Howe/Ft. Wayne) recorded a 67 percent victory percentage against an opponent who had less than $100,000 in resources.

An incumbent who faced a legitimate challenger was 4th District Rep. Jim Baird (R-Greencastle). He defeated his opponent, state Rep. Craig Haggard (R-Mooresville), by a 61-30 percent margin. This was not an expensive primary, and Rep. Baird at 80 years of age had been laid up from injuries suffered in an auto accident. Therefore, his 61 percent victory figure is certainly acceptable.

The only Democratic incumbent who faced a challenge was Rep. Andre Carson (D-Indianapolis). Against three opponents, he won renomination with 62 percent of the vote.

Irrespective of all challenged Indiana US House members recording below average victory percentages for incumbents seeking renomination, the entire nine-member delegation should easily win their respective general election campaigns.

Ohio

Several of the Ohio general election campaigns will be of national importance.

Businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy won the Ohio Republican gubernatorial nomination last night with a landslide 82 percent of the vote. He now faces former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton who was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Appointed Sen. Jon Husted had no Republican opposition in his special election primary. For the Democrats, as expected, former Sen. Sherrod Brown was renominated with 89 percent of the vote. The two will square off in November for the right to serve the final two years of the current term.

When J.D. Vance resigned his Senate seat to become Vice President, a special election became necessary to fill the balance of the term after Husted, then the state’s Lieutenant Governor, was appointed. In order for the 2026 winner to secure a full six-year term, the individual will be tasked with running again in 2028.

No surprises occurred in the Ohio House races. Two races of note will be featured as national campaigns in the general election, those from Cincinnati and Toledo.

In the 1st District, former CIA case officer Eric Conroy easily won the Republican nomination and now will challenge two-term Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) in a district that the Ohio redraw transformed from a lean Democratic seat to one that tilts Republican.

In the 9th CD, where then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R) came within less than a percentage point of upsetting veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur in 2024, we will see a re-match. Merrin defeated a crowded Republican field last night in order to earn a second chance of wresting the House seat away from Kaptur, who was first elected in 1982.

Redistricting made the 9th District even more Republican than it was in 2024, so this challenge race now becomes one of the best GOP conversion opportunities in the nation.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.

Redistricting Disarray: Alabama Yes, Georgia No, Louisiana Back to Jungle

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 4, 2026

Redistricting

The Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana racial gerrymandering case has thrown the House election cycle into disarray. As a result of the high court’s decision, redistricting options are again being contemplated in several states.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), despite previously stating she opposed redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections, issued a proclamation on Friday calling the legislature into special session later today to redraw the state’s congressional and state Senate maps.

Alabama is in exactly the same situation now as Louisiana. Under court orders, both states were required to redraw their 2021 congressional maps to add a majority minority district. Following last week’s Supreme Court Callais ruling, those revised maps are now invalid.

It is probable that the Alabama legislature will revert to a map like the one enacted in 2021. Such a plan would collapse Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Montgomery) current District 2 and shift the seat back to southeast Alabama. That change would likely return the state’s congressional delegation to a 6R–1D alignment, rather than the current 5R–2D split.

The principal beneficiary of such a map would be former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in a 2024 paired‑incumbent primary. He is currently running in the reconfigured 1st District now that incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R) is seeking a Senate seat. Carl, however, trails state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) in a recently released poll.

A new map would likely restore Mobile County as the population anchor of District 1 and shift District 2 back to southeast Alabama. Such a draw would allow both Carl and Marques to run in separate districts. While each would still face primary competition under a new configuration, they would no longer be forced to run against one another.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, which means the legislature will have to act quickly. The most likely scenario is that the regular primary proceeds as planned for all offices except the US House of Representatives and state Senate. Once new maps are enacted, a separate filing period and new primary dates for those offices would be set for later in the year.

Georgia is another state that could potentially redraw its congressional map, but with candidate filing already closed and the May 19 primary fast approaching, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is taking the opposite position of Gov. Ivey. Kemp said he does not support redistricting for 2026, though indicated he would be open to considering a new map for the 2028 election cycle.

In Louisiana, state Senate President Cameron Henry (R‑Metairie) said Friday that the 2026 election scheduling decision will likely return the state’s US House races to the jungle primary format that has been in place since the late 1970s.

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already suspended the May 16 primary for US House campaigns in response to the Supreme Court ruling. The other affected contests, most notably the US Senate race, will continue to proceed under the May 16 partisan primary schedule.

With other offices still operating under the jungle primary system, which runs concurrently with the November general election and employs December runoffs when no candidate wins a majority, it is likely the Governor will simply return the US House races to this previous format and election calendar. Such would be the least expensive way for the state to conduct elections under a revised schedule.

Once the Virginia state Supreme Court renders a decision upholding the April 21 redistricting referendum, and the new Florida plan wins approval from its state Supreme Court after a lawsuit is formally filed, along with Alabama and Louisiana overcoming the legal objections to moving their primaries, the national redistricting landscape will finally come into clear focus.

Assuming all of these courts rule as suggested, we can reasonably predict that the new California and Texas maps would offset one another in terms of partisan gains, as would the changes in Virginia and Florida. Republicans would probably gain one seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, with the potential for one or two additional seats in Ohio. Democrats would gain one seat in Utah under that state’s new court‑ordered map.

Therefore, if the national redistricting picture ultimately unfolds as outlined above, the 2026 changes would likely result in Republicans achieving a net gain of four to five seats nationwide.

Louisiana Suspends House Primaries

Louisiana Governor suspends US House elections (view interactive 2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map on Dave’s Redistricting App).

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 1, 2026

House

A day after the US Supreme Court ruled Louisiana’s congressional map an unconstitutional gerrymander, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) issued an executive order affecting the state’s May 16 primary election.

With early voting set to begin tomorrow and the state’s congressional map declared illegal by the nation’s highest court on Wednesday, Gov. Landry moved quickly to suspend the House primaries. He said the nomination election will remain in abeyance to give legislators time to redraw and approve a new congressional map and identified July 15 as the target date for rescheduling the House contests.

All other races, including the US Senate primaries in both parties, will proceed as planned on May 16.

Democrats, and even some Republicans, criticized the decision, arguing that early voting ballots have already been distributed and that postponing only the US House primaries would create confusion and likely depress turnout.

One of the Republican critics, Sen. Bill Cassidy, who faces a difficult renomination fight under the new partisan primary system, warned that running two different nomination schedules will mislead voters. For that reason, he opposes allowing the Senate primary to proceed on May 16.

What is likely a more salient reason for Sen. Cassidy’s push to postpone the primary is a new Emerson College poll released yesterday. The survey (April 24–26; 500 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) shows Sen. Cassidy trailing both former state Treasurer John Fleming and Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), whom President Trump has already endorsed.

The ballot test produced a 28-27-21 percent split, with Fleming narrowly leading Rep. Letlow, and Sen. Cassidy following. Clearly, the race is headed toward a runoff, and it is not even certain that Sen. Cassidy will qualify for the second round.

At the end of 2024, the Louisiana legislature and the Governor overhauled the state’s preliminary election system. The new law created a partisan primary in May of the election year, followed by a June runoff in any race where no candidate secures a majority. Once nominees are chosen, they advance to a November general election, as in all other states.

Previously, Louisiana used a jungle primary system in which all candidates, regardless of party, appeared on the same ballot. Any candidate who received more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round was elected outright. If no one reaches a majority, the top two finishers, again, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

In past years, Louisiana held its initial election concurrently with the national general election. If a runoff was required, the top candidates would meet again in an early December second round. For the state legislature and many statewide offices, including the governorship, that system remains in place. The new partisan primary structure applies only to federal offices and certain designated state positions.

The act of drawing a new congressional map will almost certainly guarantee Republicans at least one additional seat in the current 4R–2D Louisiana delegation. Some observers, most notably reporters at the liberal political blog The Down Ballot, have speculated that Republican legislators might even attempt to convert both Democratic seats. Whether such an effort will materialize remains uncertain.

In addition to Louisiana, other states may also undertake redistricting ahead of the 2026 election. Reports indicate that President Trump has urged Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) to eliminate the state’s lone Democratic‑held district; Georgia is also viewed as a potential candidate for a 2026 redraw.

Other states could be in the mix, as well. If such efforts move forward, they will almost certainly unfold on a very compressed timeline.

SCOTUS Decides Louisiana Case;
Florida Rep. Webster to Retire

2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map (view interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Louisiana

The US Supreme Court, months after initially hearing the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, released its ruling yesterday.

In authoring the Court’s opinion, Associate Justice Samuel Alito outlined the reasons the justices upheld the three‑judge panel’s ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found that the congressional map used before the 2024 election constituted a racial gerrymander.

The ruling is viewed as favorable to Republicans and will almost certainly require Louisiana’s congressional map to be redrawn before the 2026 statewide primary on May 16. It is possible that the legislature could simply revert to the 2021 map that was in place for the 2022 election.

Activists in several states are already urging their legislators to redraw congressional maps. Such is the case in Georgia, Mississippi (for their state Supreme Court districts), and potentially South Carolina. The Florida legislature is now likely to pass the map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) produced, which was drawn in anticipation of a favorable Republican Louisiana ruling.

In the Callais decision, Justice Alito outlined the parameters of the Voting Rights Act. He wrote, “Because the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority district, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.”

He further explained when race can be used as a factor in drawing legislative district boundaries. From later in the ruling, Justice Alito stated, “The Court’s precedents have identified “only two compelling interests” that can satisfy strict scrutiny: avoiding imminent and serious risks to human safety in prisons,” and “remediating specific, identified instances of past discrimination that violated the Constitution or a statute.”

Further explaining, the Justice wrote, “Properly understood, §2 thus does not intrude on States’ prerogative to draw districts based on nonracial factors, including to achieve partisan advantage. In short, §2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race. Not only does this interpretation follow from the plain text of §2, but it is consistent with the limited authority that the Fifteenth Amendment confers.”

It remains to be seen which states besides Louisiana will redraw their maps before the 2026 election. Alabama, where officials were also required to add another minority district ahead of the 2024 election, is one possibility. With primary elections already underway in many states, most significant redistricting activity is likely to shift to the 2028 election cycle.

FL-11

Although he would have continued to represent a safely Republican district under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map, eight-term US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) announced just after celebrating his 77th birthday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Webster had been viewed as a potential retirement candidate throughout this election cycle. Under the DeSantis map, his central Florida 11th District is rated as safely Republican. In the proposed FL‑11, President Trump would have recorded a 57.2 to 41.5 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris.

Dan Webster was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1980 and later became the chamber’s first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998, where he went on to serve as Majority Leader.

The number of open House seats has now grown to 64. Thirty-eight of these seats are currently Republican held with 21 from the Democratic column. Five additional open districts have been created as a result of redistricting maps in California, Texas, and Utah.

Of the 64 seats in the open category, only 28 involve members retiring from elective office. This group includes two lawmakers who were paired in a new redistricting map with another incumbent of his own party, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) and Burgess Owens (R-UT).

Twenty-seven Representatives are running for a different office, three have resigned their seats, two districts are open due to the incumbent’s death, and one has already been defeated in his primary election.

Once the Florida redistricting process is resolved, a crowded Republican field is expected to emerge for the now‑open 11th District. The Sunshine State candidate‑filing deadline for US House races is June 12, and the state’s primary is scheduled for Aug. 18.