An Anti-Incumbency Fervor

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 20, 2026

INCUMBENTS

Florida Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), who lost his renomination bid on Tuesday, is only one in a long list of incumbents being voted out of office. / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Tuesday’s primary produced another House incumbent defeat and saw a sitting Senator finish behind his leading general election opponent. The question now is whether the unusually high number of incumbent setbacks in both parties foreshadows broader political turbulence in November. A deeper look at the margins suggests the warning signs for incumbents are serious.

With Rep. Cory Mills (R‑FL) losing his renomination bid on Tuesday and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R‑AK) placing well behind former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska’s top‑four jungle primary, the tally of incumbents denied renomination now stands at 13, plus Sen. Sullivan’s failure to finish first. Eleven of the defeats have occurred in House races – seven Democrats and four Republicans – while two Senate Republicans have been denied renomination.

The near‑parity between the parties indicates that these results are not driven by overt partisanship. Instead, they reflect a broader anti‑incumbent, and likely anti- establishment, mood. Voters in both parties appear frustrated with the current governing system.

Democrats are nominating avowed socialists in several districts, while Republican base voters, particularly in Senate contests, are signaling dissatisfaction with incumbents they believe are not enacting enough of the Trump agenda.

The most telling statistic is not the number of incumbents defeated, but the margins by which they lost. These figures should concern any incumbent facing voters in November.

Among the 11 House defeats, Democratic incumbents averaged just 40.1 percent of the vote, while their challengers averaged a commanding 56.3 percent. Republican House incumbents fared only slightly better, averaging 41.7 percent to their challengers’ 52.8 percent. These are not narrow repudiations; they are decisive rejections.

The largest losses occurred on the Democratic side. In Texas, Rep. Al Green (D‑Houston) lost a redistricting‑induced incumbent pairing to newly elected Christian Menefee (D‑Houston) by a lopsided 69.3 – 30.7 percent.

While some attribute the margin to redistricting, most of the new 18th District came from Green’s long‑held 9th District, meaning he should have had the advantage. His strong opposition to President Trump was not the issue; rather, his age – approaching 80 – and 22‑year tenure likely weighed heavily against him.

The second‑largest defeat came in New York’s 10th District, where two‑term 50-year-old Rep. Dan Goldman lost 65.8 – 34.0 percent to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who ran as a Democratic Socialist. Here, ideology was the driving factor, despite Goldman himself being a staunch liberal even as an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune.

On Aug. 9, another veteran Democrat, Connecticut Rep. John Larson – first elected in 1998 and nearing 80 – managed only 32.9 percent against former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin and two other challengers.

Republican Senators also lost in landslide proportion. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy failed even to qualify for the runoff, receiving just 24.8 percent of the vote. In Texas, four‑term Sen. John Cornyn mustered only 36.2 percent in a runoff against scandal-tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton. Turning to Alaska, Sen. Sullivan will likely finish with roughly 43 percent against ex-Rep. Peltola, leaving him a great deal of work to do in a short period to change his trajectory for the general election.

While these primary results suggest an ominous environment for incumbents, they do not necessarily point to a partisan wave. Instead, 2026 is producing unusual and potentially revealing electoral outcomes that underscore voter restlessness across the political spectrum.

A Democratic Socialist Upset in
Florida; Alaska, Wyoming Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 19, 2026

FLORIDA

Despite former National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman outraising state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville) by a 16:1 ratio ($15.9 million raised vs. $975,000 through July 29), the financial advantage failed to translate into votes.

Rep. Nixon, a Democratic Socialist candidate, scored another victory for her faction with a convincing 55-45 percent win over Mr. Vindman. Ms. Nixon now faces appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, who won her Republican nomination with just under 80 percent of the vote.

Turning to the House, two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), dogged with sexual misconduct accusations, lost his 7th District renomination to former news anchorman Ryan Elijah. The challenger’s 47-34 percent victory margin translated into an 8,000-plus vote spread. Rep. Mills becomes the 11th House member to lose renomination this year.

Elijah now faces former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who, as predicted, won the Democratic primary. Elijah will be favored in a new 7th that carries a 56.5R – 42.5D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

In the Governor’s race, also as expected, Rep. Byron Donalds won a convincing Republican primary victory as did former Republican and ex-Independent Congressman David Jolly in the Democratic primary. Rep. Donalds will be favored in the general election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was ineligible to seek a third term.

Turning to other Florida congressional races, Austin Rogers, the former legal counsel to Sen. Rick Scott (R), won the open 2nd District Republican primary against multiple opponents. He will be favored to hold the safely Republican seat in the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City).

In the 9th District, one of four CD’s the Republicans believe they will convert in the general election, Iraq War veteran Dan Green holds a small lead against water district board member and rancher Ben Butler in a contest that is still too close to call. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge veteran Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee).

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Claremont) is retiring, so his 11th District is open. This race is also too close to call. With approximately 1,500 votes outstanding, businessman Joe Strada leads former state Sen. Cary Baker by just under 400 votes. The Republican winner will be a heavy favorite to hold the open seat in November.

Democrats will challenge two-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) in a 13th District that is more Republican under the new redistricting plan. The Democratic winner, as expected, is retired Army Gen. Leela Gray. Rep. Luna is favored, but this will be a competitive November race.

Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) new 14th District now becomes a Republican seat under the new redistricting map. The incumbent, of course, will be a factor in the general election, but this is her first real challenge during 20 years of service in the House. The Republican winner is former state Rep. Mike Beltran who scored a convincing victory last night over seven opponents.

In the open 16th District from which veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring, the easy winner was Trump-endorsed Sydney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. She is now the heavy favorite opposite former Sarasota Mayor Kelly Kirschner, who won the Democratic primary.

The 19th District featured no less than five candidates who either won or sought office in other states including former US Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY) and Madison Cawthorn (R-NC). The winner, however, was Floridian Jim Schwartzel who owns a local radio station. He will replace Rep. Donalds in the congressional delegation with what promises to be a strong general election win.

In the 20th District, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) successfully moved from her previous district to capture the heavily minority seat in last night’s Democratic primary with a plurality victory. She is now again safe in the general election.

The open 22nd District, where Rep. Wasserman Schultz could have run, is another of the seats the Republicans must convert. This district begins in the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs and stretches to the Gulf of America.

Businessman Casey Askar was the convincing Republican winner. He will now face technology executive Pia Dandiya who scored a 69 percent Democratic primary winner. Askar begins the general election in the favorite’s position.

Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring from her 24th District, the safest Democratic seat in the state under the new map, and her hand-picked successor, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, won a close Democratic primary victory over state Sen. Shevrin Jones (D-Miami) and five others. Gilbert is now a lock to win the general election.

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) chose to run in the new District 25, which is the fourth seat the Republicans have targeted to flip. Rep. Moskowitz won a decisive Democratic primary in a new district where more Democrats voted in the primary than Republicans. Rep. Moskowitz’s opponent in the general election will be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who won a crowded GOP primary.

The new 25th contains about half of Rep. Moskowitz’s previous 23rd CD, but the carryover section has more Republicans than Democrats. The partisan lean of 52.3R – 47.0D (Dave’s Redistricting App) gives Mr. Singer a slight edge.

Finally, in District 27, Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) will face, as expected, former news anchor Elliott Rodriguez in the general election. Rodriguez’s 53-47 percent victory over congressional aide Robin Peguero was weaker than expected, however.

ALASKA

The Senate race was the big story of the evening as former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) looks to be finishing a bit ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) with Republican Daniel Sullivan Jr. finishing a distant third. Republican Gerald Heikes and Democrat David Leslie are in a tight battle for fourth place.

Third and fourth are important even though the involved candidates are getting just one and two percent of the vote, because the top four finishers advance to the general election.

Count on there being a great deal of political maneuvering after these votes are finalized as it relates to the third and fourth slots. Individuals qualifying from those positions have the option of withdrawing. The Alaska Senate contest has already been polling close, and last night’s results confirmed the early surveys.

In the open Governor’s race, though the first and second place finishers are Democrats, former state Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and ex-state Sen. Tom Begich, the total Republican vote spread among a dozen candidates tallied 13,000 more votes than the Democratic aggregate total.

The third-place finisher appears locked for Republican former radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson. The fourth qualifying position is up for grabs as more than one-third of the vote remains to be tallied at this writing. Former Independent Gov. Bill Walker could only manage to attract 4.1 percent through the preliminary counting process and will not advance into the general election.

In the House, at-large Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) secured the first position and could possibly exceed majority support when all votes are counted. The second qualifier is Independent Bill Hill, while the third and fourth positions appear headed to Democrats. The primary vote solidifies Rep. Begich’s position as the definitive front runner for re-election.

WYOMING

At-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) easily clinched the open Republican Senate primary with a 65 percent victory percentage over two opponents. She will advance to the general election against Democrat James Byrd, a former state Representative. Rep. Hageman becomes a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R).

In the open Governor’s race, state Sen. Eric Barlow (R-Green River) claimed the Republican nomination defeating Trump endorsed Megen Degenfelder, the state Superintendent of Public Instruction, and retired Marine Corps Col. Brent Bien. Sen. Barlow advances to the general election against the new Democratic nominee, restaurant owner Ken Casner who was unopposed in his primary. Sen. Barlow is a lock to win the Governorship in November and succeed retiring Gov. Mark Gordon (R).

Secretary of State and former state Rep. Chuck Gray won the Republican nomination defeating businessman Steve Friess and former Bureau of Land Management Official Kevin Christensen among others. The Democratic winner is former state Sen. Lisa Kinney. As with the other two open statewide races, Gray will also be a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and replace Rep. Hageman as Wyoming’s lone US Representative.

CA-14 Special Election

A close special election to immediately replace resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will likely take several days if not more than a week to finalize under California’s elongated ballot counting system. At this writing, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) leads Bay Area Rapid Transit board member and former Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (D) by a tight 51-49 percent count with about 60 percent of the projected votes counted.

Regardless of this special election final outcome, both Sen. Wahab and Hernandez will compete in the regular general election because each advanced from the June 2 jungle primary. The special election winner will immediately take the seat and serve the balance of the current term.

Alaska & Wyoming Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Yesterday, we covered the Florida primary, which will be the most interesting primary election state this evening, but voters in Alaska and Wyoming will also make some key nomination decisions.

ALASKA

The open Governor’s race will attract the most attention in the Last Frontier as 12 Republicans, two Democrats, and three Independents, and their Lieutenant Governor running mates, battle to secure one of four general election slots in the jungle primary.

With Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) term-limited, the large field is jockeying for position in tonight’s qualifying election with the goal placing at least fourth. In the Alaska system, the top four finishers advance to the general election regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained.

It is virtually assured that former state Sen. Tom Begich (D), brother of ex-US Sen. Mark Begich (D) and uncle to current Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III, will qualify because only two Democrats are included in the large field.

Originally, it was believed Begich was a placeholder for former at-large Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D). In fact, Begich said publicly at the time of his announcement that he would end his campaign if Peltola decided to run for Governor. When she instead opted for a race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), Begich remained as a gubernatorial candidate.

On the Republican side, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) deciding not to run for Governor meant the GOP no longer had a clear favorite. Some of the more prominent Republican contenders, largely comprised of ex-state legislators, are Attorney General Treg Taylor, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, and ex-conservative radio talk show host Bernadette Wilson.

Among the three Independents is former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker, who served one term after unseating then-Gov. Sean Parnell (R) in the 2014 election. Gov. Walker would later suspend his 2018 re-election campaign that led to Dunleavy defeating former Sen. Mark Begich who was the Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

The Senate race will be less dramatic as Sen. Sullivan and Peltola will easily capture the first two general election slots among the 15 candidates including an Independent named Dan Sullivan. Peltola has been running a couple points ahead of Sen. Sullivan in early polling so the order of finish tonight could prove interesting.

In the at-large House race, Rep. Begich will secure the first general election ballot slot. Twelve contenders are opposing Begich, and it is difficult to ascertain which of them will advance. In any event, the Congressman will be a heavy favorite for re-election.

WYOMING

The Equality State is also an at-large congressional domain, and all three of their major offices on the 2026 ballot are open. Gov. Mark Gordon (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, though many believed he might challenge the state’s term limit law since others doing so have prevailed, but such did not happen; therefore, a competitive open Republican primary will be decided tonight.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) is retiring after one term, and her replacement will be at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne). The battle to replace the Congresswoman, however, will be a hotly contested affair.

The Wyoming system features a partisan plurality primary, so each party will nominate their candidates tonight irrespective of percentage attained.

Four Republicans are on the gubernatorial ballot including Trump endorsed Superintendent of Public Instruction Megen Degenfelder. Her principal opponent is state Senator and former state House Speaker Eric Barlow (R-Green River). Tonight’s winner becomes the next Governor in this safest of Republican states.

While at-large Rep. Hageman appears to be a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Lummis, the open House election features a crowded Republican field.

The key participants among the nine-person field are businessman Steve Friess, son of the late Republican mega-donor and ex-gubernatorial candidate Foster Friess, Secretary of State Chuck Gray, and several sitting and former state legislators. The Republican winner will succeed Hageman in the US House.

Florida Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 17, 2026

Voters in another three states, Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming, vote tomorrow as the primary season begins to draw to a close. Next week, we will see the Oklahoma Governor and South Carolina Senate runoff elections before Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island end the national nomination process in September.

Today, we look at a very busy Florida primary. Tomorrow, we preview Alaska and Wyoming.

Senate

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who won two statewide races as Attorney General before Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) tabbed her to replace Marco Rubio when he was appointed US Secretary of State, is on the ballot to serve the remaining two years of the current Senatorial term. She faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary election.

Sen. Moody’s likely Democratic general election opponent will be retired Lieutenant Colonel and ex-National Security Council staff member Alexander Vindman whose twin brother, Eugene Vindman, is a Virginia Congressman. Vindman’s main competition tomorrow is state Rep. Angie Nixon (D-Jacksonville), but Vindman is viewed as a prohibitive favorite for the party nomination.

Early polling suggests a competitive general election, nothing new for Florida polling, but considering voting history and the Republican lopsided voter registration advantage (almost 1.6 million more Republicans than Democrats), Sen. Moody must be considered a decided favorite.

Governor

A total of 29 Republican, Democratic, minor party, Independent, and qualified write-in candidates are competing to replace term-limited Gov. DeSantis. On the Republican side, Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has been the clear polling leader for the entire campaign and though polling shows a tightening race as we move toward tomorrow’s election, Donalds remains the favorite. His top opponents, among the 11 Republican contenders, are investment firm CEO James Fishback and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.

Among the six Democrats, former Congressman, ex-Republican and ex-Independent David Jolly appears as the clear leader for the party nomination after Orange County Executive Jerry Demings suspended his campaign due to health reasons.

House

The new Florida redistricting map faces its first ballot test tomorrow, and we first see 2025 special election winners Jimmy Patronis (R-Fort Walton Beach) and Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) on the ballot for their first full term. Both have primary opposition tomorrow, but each is expected to easily win renomination. In the remaining 26 districts, 13 feature nomination competition, including seven open seats.

It is vitally important for national Republicans that the GOP candidates convert the four targeted CDs. Failing to flip all four of the weakened Democratic seats and keeping the 20 seats the party already controls would likely mean relinquishing House majority status.

FL-2

Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) is retiring, and the Republican primary is a projected contest between self-funding businessman Keith Gross, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Rick Scott in the 2024 Republican primary, and former congressional aide and businessman Austin Rogers. Florida Republican Party chairman Evan Power is also a significant candidate. Democrats feature a four-person primary, but tomorrow’s Republican winner will be the prohibitive general election favorite.

FL-7

Two-term House incumbent Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) has scandal problems involving women, so tomorrow’s primary could see yet another US Representative fail to win renomination. A just-released survey from Capitol Strategic Partners conducted over the weekend (Aug. 14-15; 929 likely FL-7 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) found former television news anchor Ryan Elijah leading Rep. Mills by a substantial 44-27 percent clip. Nominating Elijah would likely improve Republican chances of holding the seat in November.

Democrats are looking toward former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton who has already out fundraised Rep. Mills by approximately $500.000. Also on the Democratic ballot is former 9th District Congressman Alan Grayson making yet another attempt at returning to Congress, but he is not viewed as a significant contender.

FL-9

The new Republican map suggests that Rep. Darren Soto’s (D-Kissimmee) 9th District is at the top of the GOP conversion list if they are to gain four seats in the Florida delegation. Seven Republicans are competing for the party nomination and the chance to face Rep. Soto in a more favorable district. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statisticians, the new FL-9 partisan lean is 58.9R – 40.2D, a complete reversal from the 58.8D – 39.1R calculation in the 2021 map.

The leading Republican primary contenders appear to be former Deputy Assistant Defense Department Secretary Dan Green, and former congressional candidates Thomas Chalifoux and Jorge Martinez.

FL-11

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) is retiring after serving what will be eight congressional terms after 18 years in the state legislature where he became Speaker of the House and Majority Leader of the state Senate. Tomorrow’s Republican winner will become a prohibitive favorite in the general election. A tight race is expected. Businessman Joe Strada has loaned his campaign $5 million, but it remains to be seen if such an investment will mean victory at the polls.

FL-13

The new Republican map gives two-term Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) a net seven Republican percentage point gain which will help improve her victory chances in November. Tomorrow’s likely Democratic winner is retired Army Brigadier General Leela Gray.

FL-14

Another of the four districts the Republicans must flip is 10-term US Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Tampa) 14th CD. The previous 14th was solidly Democratic, but the new version favors Republicans. The 2026 DRA partisan lean is 55.5R – 43.4D, which should give a new GOP nominee the inside track toward unseating the veteran incumbent.

Eight Republicans are vying for the nomination meaning the GOP will likely have a general election contender who only won with plurality Republican support. Former state Reps. Kevin Steele and Mike Beltran are among the leading contenders.

FL-16

Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) is retiring after serving 10 terms in the House and replacing him will almost assuredly be former US Department of Agriculture official Sidney Gruters, the wife of Republican National Committee chairman Jon Gruters. Armed with an endorsement from President Trump, Ms. Gruters is a lock for the nomination tomorrow night and should easily defeat the new Democratic nominee. The new 16th CD carries a DRA partisan lean of 56.6R – 42.6D, and Ms. Gruters will be a heavy favorite in November.

FL-19

The Ft. Myers-Cape Coral-Naples congressional district race is one of the most interesting in that some of the leading candidates have served in public office from other states. Former Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY), Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), and Illinois state Senator and multi-time congressional and statewide candidate Jim Oberweis, along with former congressional candidates Ola Hawatmeh (NY) and Catalina Lauf (IL) are all battling to succeed Rep. Donalds. Three candidates from Florida, including radio station owner Jim Schwartzel, are also on the ballot.

Tomorrow night’s outcome will be interesting as there is no clear leader. The ultimate winner, however, will advance to Congress in the general election.

FL-20

With the resignation of Rep. Sheila Cherfulis McCormick, though she is a candidate in tomorrow’s election despite facing multiple federal corruption indictments, the 20th CD is one of only four designed Democratic seats in the state. The big news here is whether Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) can move into this district, which is 70 percent minority, and claim another term in Congress. Early polling suggests she may be able to construct a plurality winning coalition.

FL-22

The new 22nd District that now stretches across the southern Florida peninsula from the Ft. Lauderdale suburbs to the Gulf of America should elect a Republican, though with a 54.4R – 44.9D partisan lean, is one of the weaker GOP seats. We can expect to see general election competition for whomever comes through the crowded big spending GOP primary tomorrow night. The leading contenders appear to be businesswoman Belinda Keiser and crypto currency company executive Michael Carbonara.

FL-24

The new 24th District with a DRA partisan lean of 73.0D – 26.2D is the strongest Democratic district in the state. Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) is retiring, and the battle to replace her lies solely within tomorrow’s Democratic primary.

The contest appears to be a three-way battle among Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, who has raised the most money and has outgoing Rep. Wilson’s support, physician Rudy Moise, and Kendrick Meek Jr., the son of former Congressman Kendrick Meek Sr. The compact Broward/Miami-Dade district includes the cities of Hollywood, Miami Gardens, Miramar and part of Miami.

FL-25

Two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) is choosing to seek re-election in the new 25th District because his previous 23rd CD was drastically changed and where Rep. Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) chose to run. Rep. Moskowitz believes he can win the district because about half of his 23rd CD constituency lies in the new 25th. His problem, however, is the most Republican areas of the previous 23rd came over to the new Atlantic Ocean coastal district that stretches from Deerfield Beach to South Beach.

The Republican primary is an expensive one with five Republican candidates spending over $600,000 apiece on their campaigns according to the most recent Federal Election Commission campaign finance report (July 29 pre-primary report).

The leading candidate figures to be Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer who also leads the field in fundraising with $2.2 million raised. The other competitive candidates are investment company executive Dan Franzese, ex-state Rep. George Moraitis, businesswoman Raven Harrison, and frequent GOP candidate Joe Kaufman. One of these contenders, likely Mayor Singer, will prove a strong competitor for Rep. Moskowitz.

FL-27

Three-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) can expect another competitive general election in a district that the new map only slightly changed. Her likely Democratic opponent is former television news anchor Elliott Rodriguez who is expected to easily win his party’s primary tomorrow night.

House Races Remain Tighter Still

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 14, 2026

US House

Just as in 2024, the prevailing wisdom portends that Democrats will capture the House majority in the coming election. It didn’t happen two years ago, so could the pattern repeat in 2026?

Recently, two Republican seats have begun trending further toward the Democrats due to incumbent problems in North Carolina’s 11th District (Rep. Chuck Edwards withdrawing) and Ohio’s 7th District (Rep. Max Miller falling behind in polling amid domestic issues).

These developments make the GOP’s tenuous grip on its slim majority even more precarious. Yet the majority remains in play because the Republicans’ advantage from the 2026 redistricting battles neutralizes some of the trends currently benefiting Democrats.

Early polling is producing inconsistent results. In recent primaries involving Democratic Socialist statewide candidates, pollsters missed badly twice within a seven‑day span (Michigan Senate; Wisconsin Governor). While President Trump continues to post poor favorability ratings and Democrats lead in most generic ballot tests, individual races still show Republican candidates at least within the polling margin of error in virtually every contested campaign.

Understanding recent election cycle polling patterns, early surveys tend to favor Democrats, while Republicans typically improve toward the end of the campaign period. Adding the familiar GOP undercount – usually about two percentage points in many states – Republican candidates remain positioned to win enough seats to hold a bare majority.

Looking at the national picture, current projections suggest that, largely through redistricting, Republicans would convert 13 Democratic seats, while Democrats would flip 10 Republican seats. Another 17 districts appear too close to call, with 12 currently held by Republicans and five by Democrats (see list above).

One can reasonably argue that additional seats belong in the toss‑up column, and over the course of the general election campaign other contests – such as the two likely Republican districts (NC‑11; OH‑7) that now lean Democratic – will enter the highly competitive category.

At present, the House stands at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats. Adding the 13 seats expected to flip to the GOP yields a 233R – 202D advantage. Subtracting the 10 Republican seats projected to move toward the Democrats produces a 223R – 212D split. Removing the 17 toss‑ups – 12 from the Republican column and five from the Democratic – reduces the division to 211R – 207D.

Therefore, for Republicans to retain the House with the bare minimum 218 seats, they would need to win seven of the 17 toss‑ups, a reasonable target since they would need to capture just 58 percent of the 12 districts they already control within this competitive subset.

For Democrats to reach 218, they would need to win 11 of the 17, also a plausible number, particularly if current trends continue into the early voting period beginning in October.

Considering conflicting polling data, historical voting patterns, voter enthusiasm – which clearly favored Democrats in 2025 and early 2026 but has normalized in primary turnout since the May primaries began – and candidate quality, it remains plausible that either party has a legitimate opportunity to claim a narrow House majority for the next congressional term.

Incumbent Defeats Mount
As 2026 Primaries Unfold

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 13, 2026

Primaries

A total of 43 states have now conducted their primary elections, and we have already seen 12 incumbents – 10 in the House and two in the Senate; seven Democrats and five Republicans – fail to win renomination. This is an unusually high number, particularly in the House, but whether it signals a coming major change general election is difficult to determine at this stage. Even so, the pattern offers several notable clues.

One of the most striking findings is the large average defeat margin (16 percentage points) among the 12 incumbents. Such lopsided results suggest an electorate that is, at minimum, frustrated with the current political status quo.

The fact that incumbents in both parties have lost – and that almost all did so by substantial margins – indicates that voters on opposite ideological ends are expressing dissatisfaction, albeit for different reasons. Democratic electorates are clearly gravitating toward more ideologically extreme candidates, while Republican voters appear discontent with what they perceive as slow pace of achievement from the officeholders they have routinely elected.

In the House, seven Democrats and three Republicans have been denied another term. Of the seven Democratic defeats, only Reps. Adriano Espaillat (D‑NY) and Shri Thanedar (D‑MI) lost by margins within four percentage points.

Among the remaining 10 House defeats, the average margin of victory exceeded 17 percentage points. Two races set the high‑water mark: Rep. Al Green (D‑TX) losing to fellow Rep. Christian Menefee (D‑TX) by 38.6 points, and Rep. Dan Goldman (D‑NY) falling to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander by 31.8 points.

Three defeats occurred within the past two weeks – Reps. Thanedar, Andy Ogles (R‑TN), and John Larson (D‑CT) – demonstrating that the trend is not confined to any single moment in the cycle. Incumbents have now fallen in March, May, June, and August, pointing to a broader and more persistent wave of discontent.

Of the 12 defeats, eight can reasonably be attributed to ideological or partisan motivations. On the Democratic side, incumbents who lost to candidates publicly identifying as Democratic Socialists – Reps. Espaillat, Goldman, and Diana DeGette (D‑CO) – were rejected because they were not far enough to the political left. Though Rep. Thanedar did not lose to a self‑identified Democratic Socialist, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit) campaigned aggressively on the argument that the incumbent was not sufficiently liberal.

On the Republican side, the dynamic was the reverse: incumbents were deemed as not suitably conservative. This was most evident in Sen. John Cornyn’s (R‑TX) loss to Attorney General Ken Paxton, and retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein defeating Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑KY), aided by former President Trump’s very public criticism of Massie’s votes against the MAGA agenda.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R‑LA) faced similar pressure to that of Rep. Massie, failing even to qualify for the runoff after finishing 20 points behind first‑place finisher Rep. Julia Letlow (R‑Start), who received President Trump’s endorsement. The President became actively involved in the race because he wanted to see Sen. Cassidy, who voted for impeachment in 2021, fail to win renomination.

Though ideology may not have been the principal factor in Rep. Dan Crenshaw’s (R‑TX) 15‑point defeat, challenger Steve Toth (R‑The Woodlands) clearly ran to Crenshaw’s right.

Two incumbents – Reps. Green and Larson – lost primarily due to age‑related concerns, as younger challengers capitalized on generational contrasts. About a dozen elderly Democratic incumbents were challenged by younger opponents who used the generation gap as a principal reason for voters to turn away from the incumbent and a pair of the upstarts were successful.

Two others fell for distinct reasons. Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑TX) lost to former Rep. Colin Allred largely because Allred was better known to Democratic voters and Johnson was forced into unfamiliar territory under the new Texas map. Rep. Ogles lost to former Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher (R) due to a campaign‑finance scandal and seeing substantially new territory, including the city of Memphis, added to his district under the new Tennessee redistricting map.

While each defeat has its own unique circumstances, the sheer volume and the average double-digit margin across the 12 races are already reverberating through general election campaigns.

It remains to be seen whether any additional incumbents will fall in the remaining seven primaries, and how many more may lose in November. Expect campaigns to begin making strategic adjustments as we move into political prime time after Labor Day.

Graham to Runoff; Flanagan Wins; Rep. Larson Loses in Connecticut

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th US House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.

For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.

In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an Aug. 25 Republican runoff election. Graham recorded only 33 percent of the vote, meaning 67 percent of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.

Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25 percent. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20 percent but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.

Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40 percent margin. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.

In other races …

Alabama

Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Carl scored a commanding 75 percent victory in the Republican primary.

In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.

In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.

Connecticut

In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68 percent of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the fall campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).

Minnesota

In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90 percent victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).

In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.

Vermont

Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.

Wisconsin

In addition to Crowley winning the right to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.

In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49 percent contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.

In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40 percent of the vote. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).

In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.

Primary Preview:
Minnesota, South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Voters in six states cast their final ballots today, and the two premier contests, the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns, are reviewed in this update. Yesterday, we covered the three congressional races in Alabama along with the regular primaries taking place in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Minnesota

With Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) a lock to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination tonight – and then the general election in November – the political focus shifts to the open US Senate race. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, leaving the Democratic nomination to be decided between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D Prior Lake).

Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate and has consolidated substantial individual and institutional support. Her endorsements include Sens. Smith, Bernie Sanders (I VT), and Elizabeth Warren (D MA), along with Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D MN). Former Sen. Al Franken has also publicly backed her.

The Lieutenant Governor secured the official Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party endorsement at the state convention, where she was so dominant among delegates that Rep. Craig did not participate.

In Minnesota politics, an official party endorsement often leads remaining opponents to exit the race. Such is not the case here. Rep. Craig, who holds a fundraising advantage, always intended to force a primary regardless of the convention outcome. Her most prominent Minnesota endorsement comes from Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, while her broader support base includes key labor unions and elected officials from other states.

Polling in the Democratic primary has been inconsistent. Seven surveys released since late May show a split picture: three with Flanagan leading, three with Craig ahead, and one tied. The race enters today’s vote as a genuine toss up, and a close result is expected.

On the Republican side, former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya holds a solid polling advantage and is expected to win comfortably tonight despite not receiving the official GOP endorsement. Tafoya, who grew up in Minnesota and built her broadcasting career in the state before moving to ESPN and NBC Sports, benefits from strong name recognition while developing a centrist public image.

National coverage of the potential general election has been limited, but Minnesota could emerge as a sleeper contest for Republicans. Early general election polling, though none has been released since late May, shows the prospective nominees within single digits. Should Tafoya remain competitive, national Republican groups will likely invest heavily late in the campaign.

In the congressional races, the Democratic primary for Rep. Craig’s open 2nd District is expected to be close. Two Democratic state Senators, one state Representative, a teacher, and a biochemist are competing for the nomination, with the winner holding an early edge heading into the fall. Republicans have unified behind state Sen. Eric Pratt (R Prior Lake), who is unopposed tonight.

Rep. Omar faces four Democratic challengers, but none have mounted a major campaign. She is expected to easily secure renomination.

South Carolina

Today is also the day that Palmetto State Republicans will begin the formal process of replacing the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot.

Three major candidates are competing for what will prove to be two runoff slots. They are: appointed Sen. Darline Graham, the late Senator’s sister, and Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Also on the ballot are former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch, who attracted 29 percent of the vote against Sen. Graham in the 2026 Republican primary.

Polling is close, and all plausible scenarios point to Graham, Norman, and Fry advancing in various combinations. The runoff will be held quickly, a two week campaign concluding on Aug. 25. The winner will replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot and face the Democratic nominee, physician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

The fact that Darline Graham is not approaching the 50 percent threshold suggests she may struggle in a head-to-head runoff against either Congressman. Tonight’s vote will provide a clearer picture of how the race is likely to unfold.

Hawaii Results;
Previews of Tuesday’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 10, 2026

Hawaii

Hawaii Rep. Ed Case

Confounding polling that suggested veteran Hawaii Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) could lose his renomination campaign, the Congressman instead posted a decisive 60-36 percent win on Saturday night. He defeated state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Honolulu) and two others.

Rep. Case now becomes the prohibitive favorite for November against the new Republican nominee, Adriel Lam, a retired Army officer who was unopposed in his primary.

Gov. Josh Green (D) easily secured renomination and likewise enters November as a strong favorite for re‑election. The same holds for 2nd District U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda (D‑Kaneohe), who also faced little difficulty in her primary.

Tuesday Primaries

Aug. 11 is another major primary day, with voters in six states set to nominate candidates for the general election. The second part of the Alabama primary will be held tomorrow in the House districts affected by the state’s new redistricting map.

Today’s coverage also includes key races in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Tomorrow, we will turn to Tuesday’s marquee contests: the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns.

Alabama

Nominees for three House districts will be decided tomorrow. Because the redistricting changes forced a new primary date for several districts, these contests will be conducted under a plurality format, meaning Alabama’s traditional runoff system will not apply.

In the Mobile-anchored 1st District, former Rep. Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in the 2024 Republican primary after being paired with another incumbent under the previous map, is attempting a comeback in a district similar to the one he originally represented. The revised boundaries make it likely that Carl will win the nomination tomorrow and return to Congress at the start of 2027.

In the new 2nd District, which reverts to its traditional southeastern Alabama configuration, Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) must now seek re‑election in a district that favors Republicans. In the GOP primary, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) is favored to win the nomination from a field of five candidates.

AL‑2 will be a must‑win for Republicans in November if the party hopes to maintain its slim House majority. A competitive Figures-Marques general election is expected. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean, the district favors Republicans but with only a 52.2R – 47.1D margin.

The other primary comes in District 6 where veteran Congressman Gary Palmer (R-Hoover/Shelby County) is expected to easily secure renomination for a fifth term. His central Alabama district delivered a 67 percent vote for President Trump in 2024, underscoring Palmer’s strong position.

Connecticut

Tomorrow’s gubernatorial primary will draw the most political attention among the Connecticut campaigns, along with a competitive Democratic contest in the Hartford-anchored 1st Congressional District.

Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is seeking a third term and faces a relatively competitive challenge from state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford). Rep. Elliott is running on affordability and tax policy, arguing that the Lamont Administration has placed too heavy a burden on the middle class.

Late July polling from several sources indicates the Governor holds a comfortable double‑digit advantage, with leads ranging from 20 to 30 points.

Tomorrow’s Democratic winner will become the heavy favorite in November against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R‑Greenwich), who is unopposed for the GOP nomination.

In the 1st Congressional District, veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) faces a strong Democratic primary challenge from former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin, state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest (D-West Hartford), and Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune.

Bronin is clearly the principal challenger, but the presence of the other two candidates may allow Rep. Larson to secure renomination with a plurality. No late polling has been released, but Bronin leads the fundraising race. This contest will be worth watching.

Vermont

Gov. Phil Scott (R) is unopposed in the Republican primary as he faces voters for the sixth time. Vermont and New Hampshire remain the only two states where Governors serve two‑year terms. Despite Vermont being one of the most Democratic states in the country, Gov. Scott again enters the general election as the clear favorite.

At-large Rep. Becca Balint (D-Brattleboro) is seeking a third term. She’s unopposed for renomination tomorrow and will sail to victory in November.

Wisconsin

The Governor’s race is the main attraction on Wisconsin’s 2026 ballot. Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong, a Madison state Representative, is favored to win the Democratic nomination – another example of a far‑left candidate prevailing in a party primary and advancing to a high-profile general election.

Her opponent will be Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑Minocqua), who faces only minimal competition for the Republican nomination. The general election is expected to draw national attention.

The state’s 3rd Congressional District, likely a rematch between Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) and businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), will also host a major national congressional campaign. Their 2024 contest ended with a narrow 51–49 percent Van Orden victory, and a similarly close race is anticipated this year. WI‑3 remains a top Democratic conversion target.

The open 7th District features a Republican primary in which the winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for November. Much of the attention will center on Trump‑endorsed Michael Alfonso, the son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, a former four‑term 7th District Congressman.

Blackburn Wins, Rep. Ogles Loses in Tennessee; Hawaii Primary Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 7, 2026

Tennessee

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

[/caption]Sen. Marsha Blackburn’s victory margin was narrower than early projections when she entered the Governor’s race, but she still secured a double‑digit win and the Republican nomination, effectively guaranteeing her path to the Governor’s Mansion in November.

Sen. Blackburn finished with a 43-33-24 percent victory margin over Rep. John Rose (R‑Cookeville) and state Rep. Monty Fritts (R‑Kingston). Both Rose and Fritts began with single‑digit support but steadily improved throughout the long primary cycle.

Blackburn performed strongly statewide, particularly in her western Tennessee base, while Rep. Rose dominated in his home congressional district. Rep. Fritts carried five counties and posted a credible finish.

Because Tennessee is not a runoff state, Blackburn won the gubernatorial nomination with a plurality. She will face Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green in the general election, who came close to the 70 percent mark in the Democratic primary.

A presumed Blackburn victory in November would give her the opportunity of appointing her own successor in the US Senate. Speculation will now intensify over whom she might choose in January. Assuming the appointee seeks election, a special vote would occur concurrently with the 2028 regular election. The Blackburn seat is next in-cycle for a six-year term in 2030.

Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) was unopposed for renomination and enters the general election as a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw, who previously ran for the Senate in 2020 and 2024.

The major development in the House delegation came in the 5th District, where Rep. Andy Ogles (R‑Columbia) lost his renomination bid to former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher.

The newly drawn 5th District, now stretching to Arkansas and including downtown Memphis, is dramatically different from the central Tennessee-anchored district Ogles first won in 2022. Under the new district boundaries, Hatcher’s 53-47 percent victory positions him as a strong favorite over Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, the Democratic nominee.

Rep. Ogles becomes the ninth House incumbent to lose renomination in 2026 and the third Republican. Michigan Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) also lost his primary on Tuesday night.

In Rep. Rose’s open and safely Republican 6th District, state Rep. Johnny Garrett (R‑Goodlettsville) defeated former Rep. Van Hilleary and Iraq/Afghanistan War veteran Jon Henry. Hilleary, attempting a comeback after two decades off the ballot (he served four House terms and was the GOP nominee for Governor in 2002 and for the Senate in 2006) finished second, 12 points behind Garrett.

In the newly created 9th District, state Sen. Brent Taylor (R‑Eads), backed with endorsements from President Trump and Sens. Blackburn and Hagerty, won the Republican nomination over state Rep. Todd Warner (R-Chapel Hill) and two additional candidates. Sen. Taylor will be a heavy favorite against the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Justin Pearson (D‑Memphis), a prominent gun‑control advocate.

Hawaii

Hawaii is the next state to hold its nomination election in what is a busy primary week. The most notable contest tomorrow is in the 1st Congressional District, where veteran Rep. Ed Case (D‑Kaneohe) faces a relatively competitive Democratic primary against state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D‑Honolulu).

A Blueprint Polling survey conducted for the Keohokalole campaign (released Aug. 6, taken July 7-8; 481 likely HI‑1 Democratic primary voters) shows the Congressman leading 33-25 percent, with three minor Democratic candidates also on the ballot.

The crowded field gives Rep. Case an additional advantage under Hawaii’s plurality primary system. He is again expected to win renomination and then re‑election in November, which would secure him a seventh non‑consecutive US House term.