Markwayne Mullin Confirmed;
Armstrong Now Oklahoma Senator

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Senate

Oklahoma’s Markwayne Mullin yesterday won Senate confirmation to his new position as Secretary of Homeland Security. A day before, Mullin resigned from the Senate thus creating a new open seat for the 2026 election cycle.

Energy businessman and now Oklahoma Sen. Alan Armstrong (R)

Mullin was first elected to the House in 2012 and was re-elected four times. He won a special election to the Senate in 2022 replacing then-Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) who resigned the seat for family reasons after serving 28 years. Immediately upon the Mullin confirmation, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy businessman Alan Armstrong (R) to serve the balance of the current term.

Under Oklahoma procedure, when a Senate vacancy occurs the Governor appoints a replacement. The person agreeing to accept the appointment then signs an oath saying he or she will not seek election to the succeeding term. Therefore, Sen. Armstrong will only serve until just after the special election, which is scheduled concurrently with the regular election cycle.

Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle this year, the winner of the regular term — likely the person who wins the concurrent special election — will earn a full six-year term. The odds-on favorite to win both elections is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) who announced for the seat as soon as then-Sen. Mullin was designated as the new Homeland Security Secretary.

The Mullin resignation means there will be 11 open US Senate races in this cycle, seven from the Republican side as compared to four open Democratic seats.

Alan Armstrong was born and raised in the Bartlesville area of northern Oklahoma. He graduated from the University of Oklahoma and then went to work for the Williams energy company where he spent his professional career, rising to the company’s top position serving from 2011 to 2025. After retiring, he became a member of the Williams company Board of Directors from which he resigned to accept the short-term Senate appointment.

Oklahoma has a unique procedure for the appointment process that disqualifies the appointee from running for the seat to which they are chosen. While unconstitutional to pass a law that prohibits a citizen from seeking political office, the state lawmakers got around the requirement by having the appointment process include the signing of the oath pledging not to run.

If an individual decided to break the oath, it would be difficult for the state to pursue action against the person because of the individual’s constitutional right to participate in the political process. There is no indication in this case that Sen. Armstrong will attempt to break his oath.

Rep. Hern is cementing his case to become a consensus Senate candidate. After his formal announcement of candidacy, both Gov. Stitt, who had not expressed clear interest in running for the Senate, and Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) who confirmed she was contemplating entering the race, both announced they would not run.

In the Republican primary, the announced candidates challenging Rep. Hern are real estate broker Sean Buckner, IT professional Nick Hankins, nurse Ron Meinhardt, and non-profit CEO Wayne Washington.

For the Democrats, progressive activist Evan Beck, private investigator Troy Green, janitor Rebekah LaVann, retired attorney Jim Priest, and nurse N’Kiyla Thomas have declared their candidacies.

The Oklahoma candidate filing deadline is April 3, so time remains for a stronger contender in both parties to come forward. With no former or current elected official in the overall field, it appears that Rep. Hern is a lock to become the consensus Republican nominee and a prohibitive favorite for the general election.

Idaho in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Senate

A new poll suggests that the Idaho Senate race may become the 2026 version of what we saw unfold in Nebraska two years ago.

In the 2024 Cornhusker State US Senate election, Independent Dan Osborn was able to garner the Nebraska Democratic Party’s support, and with strong fundraising catapulted himself into a competitive battle with Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer prevailed with a six-point victory margin, but not without enduring a period where several consecutive public polls staked Osborn to a lead.

Left: Three-term Idaho incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Right: Challenger Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative

A new Public Policy Polling survey (March 16-17; 639 likely 2026 Idaho general election voters; live interview & text) released on Friday found Idaho Independent candidate Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative, posting a three-point ballot test edge (41-38 percent) over three-term incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Whether this study is a trend setter or an anomaly remains to be seen, but the data deserves examination.

Apparently, the incumbent’s age will be an issue. Risch will be 83 at the time of the election, and his long career in elective politics appears to be an Achilles talking point as the campaign begins in earnest.

Risch was elected to the US Senate in 2008 after serving for seven months as Governor before returning to his position as Lieutenant Governor. Prior to winning statewide office, Risch served 21 non-consecutive years in the Idaho Senate. Except for a six-year stint when he was out of elective politics, Sen. Risch has been in public office continually since the end of 1974.

In an interview with the Idaho News, a left-leaning website covering Boundary County located at the northernmost point of the Idaho Panhandle that borders Canada, Achilles said, “voters want a Senator who will stand up to monopolies, defend free markets, protect small businesses and producers, safeguard families online, and remain sharp and effective for the full six-year term.”

The Achilles Senate effort should be taken seriously. According to his claims, the Independent candidate has “nearly 1,000 volunteers and attended more than 100 events that cover all 44 Idaho counties.” He also has raised $350,000 for his statewide effort, but that amount compares poorly to Sen. Risch’s reported $3.87 million year end cash-on-hand figure.

On the Senator’s side is his campaign history. Counting his two bids for Lieutenant Governor and three US Senate contests, Risch has won every statewide race in which he has participated. In those five campaigns beginning in 2002, he has averaged an even 60.0 percent of the vote and has a strong base of support within the Republican Party.

Candidate filing closed March 6, and Sen. Risch drew only three minor Republican primary opponents: data engineer Joe Evans, construction contractor Danny LaVe, and paper mill operations supervisor Josh Roy.

What may hurt Achilles’ effort in the general election is the Democrats having their own nominee. Realtor David Roth is unopposed for the Democratic US Senate nomination and will advance into the general election, though he will have little in the way of resources with which to compete.

While Achilles, who resigned from the state House to devote full time to his Independent bid for the Senate, is clearly making a serious effort to construct a competitive campaign, he will need the Democratic leadership to force their eventual nominee out of the race so the party could endorse, or at least not impede, his stronger Independent effort opposite Sen. Risch.

Such a Democratic move, however, might prove to be a two-edged sword. While the Democrats not having their own nominee would help Achilles evolve the race into a two-way affair, the party leaders officially endorsing the Independent would hurt his ability to carve the centrist ideological path that he desires, especially since he served as a Democrat in the state House as recently as July.

While the PPP poll suggests that Sen. Risch may not be as strong as one would have believed when first glancing at the 2026 national Senate political card, Achilles still faces a difficult task of putting this race into play even though he is constructing a credible early effort.

Accounting for the most obvious positive and negative factors, Sen. Risch must still be regarded as the determinative favorite for re-election.

California’s 1st District:
A Tale of Two Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 23, 2026

House

Northern California’s 1st Congressional District. See interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Rep. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R).

It was thought that when Gallagher announced, he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2 and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win.

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Gallagher would not enter the regular election and McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11. Gallagher actually entered the regular term race and McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats. But, with few options, Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move — and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed — was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district. Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat — non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney — also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect.

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot, and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an Aug. 4 runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign. Now it will be more difficult for Gallagher to reach 50 percent because Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2 regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained.

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (Feb. 24-28; 700 likely CA-1 regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30 percent margin with Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.

Three Now Battling for
Louisiana Senate Seat

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 19

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challengers to hold his US Senate seat.

It has been known for some time that Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) was going to face real competition in his fight for renomination this year, but a legitimate three-way race scenario was not often speculated upon.

A series of late February surveys and the most recent Cassidy campaign poll confirm that State Treasurer and former Congressman and ex-White House Deputy Chief of Staff John Fleming is a viable Republican Senate candidate. This, even though President Trump has endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) against Sen. Cassidy.

The two-term incumbent is not a Trump favorite because he is one of two GOP Senators on the ballot in 2026 – Maine’s Susan Collins is the other – who voted to impeach President Trump in early 2021 over the January 6 Capitol conflict.

Public Opinion Strategies, surveying for the Cassidy campaign (March 7-10; 500 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview), sees the Senator holding a 35-24-21 percent advantage over Rep. Letlow and Fleming. Testing a Cassidy-Letlow runoff, the incumbent would hold only a 45-43 percent edge. The Cassidy-Fleming runoff possibility was not tested, but it would not be surprising to see a similar preference division.

The February polls, however, show a stronger Fleming standing. The BDPC survey research organization, a bipartisan Louisiana firm, tested the Republican Senate race during the Feb. 21-23 period (600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) and found a closer ballot test result, 28-21-21 percent with Sen. Cassidy leading and Letlow and Fleming tied. According to this survey, Fleming would lead both Cassidy (43-32 percent) and Letlow (36-27 percent) in runoff scenarios.

Quantas Insights and JMC Analytics & Polling also project a three-way race in their February polling.

Quantas (Feb 23-24; 1,428 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online) saw a 34-25-20 percent split with Fleming leading, Rep. Letlow second, and the Senator dropping to third. A Fleming-Letlow runoff was tested and broke 42-32 percent in Fleming’s favor.

JMC Analytics, another regular Louisiana pollster (2/14-16; 645 Louisiana likely Republican primary voters; live interview), found a virtual three-way tie with Mr. Fleming holding a slight 26-25-22 percent lead over Rep. Letlow and Sen. Cassidy.

The renomination road for Sen. Cassidy is more difficult than in his first two elections. The state has moved away from its jungle primary system that featured all candidates on the same ballot in a vote scheduled concurrently with the general election. If a contender received majority support, the individual was elected outright in the one election. If no one attained the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, would advance to an early December runoff election.

In 2024, the legislature and Governor changed the law for federal and some state offices, concluding that their freshmen federal officials were at an organizational disadvantage in Congress because some of their members were joining the body a month after all others. Therefore, the legislative leaders and Gov. Jeff Landry (R) believed that the state was penalizing itself in terms of key committee assignments and in some leadership elections. This, even though the Speaker and Majority Leader both hail from Louisiana.

A reason less talked about for the change is the Senate race. Clearly, the legislators were aware that returning to a partisan primary/runoff system would make re-election much more difficult for Sen. Cassidy, who is viewed as less conservative than the typical Louisiana Republican legislator and primary voter.

Therefore, under the new nomination system, we see a closed primary (voters must be registered party members) scheduled for Saturday, May 16 with a runoff if no one receives majority support calendared for June 27.

Sen. Cassidy is certainly prepared for a tough challenge. He reported over $10.1 million cash-on-hand (COH) at the end of 2025, which is a 4:1 COH advantage over Rep. Letlow, and 5:1 opposite Fleming.

Considering the Trump endorsement for Rep. Letlow and the GOP/MAGA base expressing anti-Cassidy sentiments, the Senator will need every bit of his financial advantage to fight his way through to renomination.

Stratton, Bean Win; Jackson, Jr. Loses

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Illinois Primary

The important Illinois primary produced the 2026 election cycle’s first full slate of partisan nominees last night. The Land of Lincoln hosted the nation’s fifth regular primary election, but the first allowing plurality finishes.

In the four previous March primaries, from Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, only candidates who secured majority support were nominated. In the campaigns where all finishers were under the majority threshold, the top two vote getters advanced into runoff elections.

Senate

Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, with strong support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s political machine, defeated two sitting members of the House, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) in last night’s Illinois open Senate Democratic primary.

Throughout the great preponderance of the primary campaign cycle, Rep. Krishnamoorthi had developed what appeared to be dominating polling and fundraising leads. In the Past two weeks, however, momentum clearly shifted to Stratton and this closing effort propelled her to a 39.7 – 33.3 percent victory over Krishnamoorthi.

Rep. Kelly, who was never a serious factor, pulled 18.4 percent of the vote. She did better in Cook County, garnering 23 percent, and won her home county of Kankakee, but otherwise, Kelly failed to make her mark throughout the rest of the state.

Stratton carried Cook County, which was expected, with just over 40 percent of the vote. The surprise was her strength downstate, basically running at parity with Krishnamoorthi outside of Cook County.

This race’s final publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), proved spot on. Its survey result from a week ago found Stratton leading Rep. Krishnamoorthi 38-33 percent.

On the Republican side, former state party chairman Don Tracy won his party’s nomination with 40 percent of the vote. He will be a decided underdog to Stratton in November. The winner will replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

Governor

Incumbent J.B. Pritzker was unopposed in the Democratic primary as he seeks a third consecutive term as the state’s chief executive.

On the Republican side, former state Senator and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey won renomination setting up a re-match in November. Four years ago, Gov. Pritzker defeated Bailey by a 55-42 percent count. We can expect a similar result later this year.

House

All of the significant House primary action was on the Democratic side because the party is risking five seats through incumbent retirements and with Reps. Kelly and Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate. While the four hotly contested open seat primaries had large candidate fields, three of the four came down to two principal contenders.

The fifth open seat, that of retiring Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), featured only one candidate, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman). We expect to see several prominent Democrats qualify as Independents to force a competitive general election, however.

In the Chicago-anchored 2nd District where former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. was attempting a comeback, Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller instead defeated the former 10-term incumbent, 40-29 percent. Jackson, son of the late civil rights leader, Jesse Jackson, was forced to leave office in 2012 after being convicted of bribery and misusing government and campaign funds. Miller is now a lock to win the general election.

The second comeback attempt, from former Congresswoman Melissa Bean, was successful. She defeated businessman Junaid Ahmed 32-27 percent. Bean was originally elected in 2004 but defeated in 2010. She now returns to succeed Rep. Krishnamoorthi in the state’s Chicago suburban 8th District. This version of the 8th, unlike the seat to which Bean was originally elected, is safely Democratic.

Turning to the 7th CD, the seat that retiring veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis represents, state Rep. LaShawn Ford (D-Chicago) defeated Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin 24-20 percent. He will now advance into Congress with what is predicted to be an easy general election win. This is a good example of why some states employ a runoff, because the final winning percentage in this situation is likely to be under 25 percent.

Ninth District Rep. Jan Schkowsky (D-Evanston) is retiring after serving what will be 36 years in the House at the end of this Congress. Her successor will be Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who won the Democratic primary with a close 29-26-20 percent win over free Palestine activist Kat Abughazaleh and state Sen. Laura Fine (D-Glenview). All other House incumbents from both parties who faced primary opposition won easily.

Next, we will see the special congressional election runoff in Georgia on April 7, followed by New Jersey’s 11th District special general election on April 16. The next regular primaries are not until May 5 in Indiana and Ohio. The month of May will feature 11 regular primaries and the Texas runoff election.

Illinois Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Primary

Voters in the Land of Lincoln will cast their election day ballots in today’s fifth state primary vote. Unlike the others we have witnessed so far in Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas, the Illinois primary is plurality based. Therefore, we will see nominees chosen tonight in all races.

Leading the ticket is the important open US Senate race, and the new incumbent will be effectively crowned tonight in the Democratic primary. Republicans have little chance of putting this Senate seat in play for the general election, so retiring Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D) replacement will come from tonight’s Democratic vote.

The race is largely between Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), who has led in polling and fundraising for almost a year, and Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has been the beneficiary of a Super PAC funded in most part by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and his family along with large expenditures from the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association. The outside spending has brought her campaign into relative parity with Krishnamoorthi’s.

There is no doubt that Lt. Gov. Stratton has captured the closing momentum, but the question remains as to whether her late surge is enough to overtake the western Chicago suburban Congressman. A third top-tier candidate, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), failed to gain traction and is no longer competitive for the nomination.

The closing publicly released poll, from FM3 Research (March 10-12; 678 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters), projects Stratton to a 38-33 percent lead over Rep. Krishnamoorthi. Suggested internal campaign polls, however, still favor the Congressman, but the closing indicators suggest a close finish. Turnout from Chicago as compared to the downstate participation rate will likely be the determining factor. A high Chicago turnout will help Stratton; if the downstate participation is stronger, Krishnamoorthi will win the nomination.

The Governor’s race is also on the ballot. Gov. Pritzker is unopposed for renomination to a third term. Four Republicans are vying for their party’s nomination including 2022 nominee Darren Bailey, a former state Senator. He lost to Pritzker 55-42 percent four years ago. The Governor will again be favored in 2026.

All 17 Illinois US House seats are on the ballot today. Seven delegation members are running unopposed in their respective primaries: Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago); Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago); Bill Foster (D-Naperville); Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro); Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville); Darin LaHood (R-Peoria); and Eric Sorensen (D-Moline).

Two former House members are making comeback attempts, and both have strong chances to prove victorious tonight.

Ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. (D) was elected 10 times but resigned in 2012 when convicted of bribery and misuse of campaign and government funds. In this primary election, he faces nine Democratic opponents for his former 2nd District position. Among the contenders are two state Senators and a Cook County Commissioner. Tonight’s winner will cruise to election in November.

Former Congresswoman Melissa Bean (D) was first elected in 2004 but defeated for re-election in 2010. Now that the 8th District is again open due to Rep. Krishnamoorthi running for the Senate, Bean returns to elective politics. She faces seven Democrats tonight including Cook County Commissioner Kevin Morrison and local official Yasmeen Bankole.

Fourth District Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago) is retiring and was able to conceal his intentions until the filing period was ending when his chief of staff, Patty Garcia (no relation to the Congressman), filed in his place. While she is unopposed for the party nomination because Rep. Garcia was expected to seek re-election, four Democrats are attempting to qualify for the ballot as Independents to challenge her in the general election.

To gain ballot access without a political party nomination, an individual must recruit more than 10,500 petition signatures from the district’s registered voters. Included in this group are Chicago Alderman Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Lyons Mayor Chris Getty. The signatures must be submitted by May 26.

Incumbents Mike Quigley (D-Chicago), Sean Casten (D-Downers Grove), Brad Schneider (D-Highland Park), Nikki Budzinski (D-Springfield), and Mary Miller (R-Oakland) all face intra-party competition, but each is expected to easily win renomination.

The state congressional delegation also features two more safe Democratic open seats. In District 7, veteran Chicago Congressman Danny Davis (D) is retiring, and 14 Democrats are competing to be his successor. The group includes a state Representative, the Chicago City Treasurer, a local Mayor, a labor union official, and a physician within the crowded field. This plurality primary will likely be decided with the winner receiving only a small number of votes.

A similar situation will occur in retiring Rep. Jan Schkowsky’s (D-Evanston) open 9th District. Here, 15 Democrats are on the ballot, and it appears one of the following will likely be victorious tonight: Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, state Sens. Laura Fine (D-Glenview) and Mike Simmons (D-Chicago), state Rep. Hoan Huynh (D-Chicago), or political researcher Kat Abughazaleh who has a national following.

We are assured of seeing some very interesting results later this evening.

How Polls Can Mislead

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 16, 2026

Polling

Polling is an important element in campaigning for office and also an invaluable tool in helping to forecast elections, but one that can also mislead. That’s why it’s so important to understand the polling methodology in order to best comprehend what the data tells us.

A good example of not taking a ballot test at first glance comes in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary where two polls taken within the same relative time frame are producing very different results. Delving into the methodology gives us a better idea of which pollster has the better information.

The 2nd District is Maine’s northern congressional seat that encompasses most of the Pine Tree State’s vast land area and stretches to the Canadian border. The major population centers are the cities of Bangor, Augusta, and the Lewiston-Auburn metro area. Four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is not seeking re-election.

The ME-2 seat is also the most Republican congressional district in the country that sends a Democrat to the House of Representatives. President Trump has carried the 2nd District in all three of his national general election campaigns. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation shows a 52.9R – 41.1D split. The 2026 open race here may become the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the nation.

The 2026 campaign features former two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who faces only minor opposition for the Republican nomination, and two major Democrats vying to become their party’s standard bearer: state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), brother of former Governor, ex-Congressman, and previous state Sen. John Baldacci, and State Auditor and former Secretary of State Matt Dunlap.

The conflicting polls in question come from the Maine-anchored Pan Atlantic Research firm conducting its regular “Omnibus Poll,” and Tulchin Research for the Dunlap campaign.

The methodology disclosure for the Pan Atlantic survey reveals that 810 likely voters were questioned online during the period of Feb. 13 through March 2nd. Tulchin conducted their survey soon after Pan Atlantic finished, from March 5-8 of 400 likely ME-2 voters, via multiple sampling techniques.

When looking at the 2nd District Democratic primary, Pan Atlantic projects Sen. Baldacci as holding a significant 36-14-12 percent advantage over Dunlap and former congressional aide Jordan Wood, respectively. Tulchin, however, found a very different result. According to the TR ballot test, it is Dunlap who holds a 36-29-11 percent lead over Sen. Baldacci and Wood.

Obviously, the two pollsters come to contrary conclusions as to what may happen in this particular political campaign. Digging deeper, we can find which of these two surveys is likely the more accurate predictor.

Looking at the Pan Atlantic methodology, we see, as previously stated, that 810 likely voters have been surveyed. This, however, is the number for the entire state and contains many more than just 2nd Congressional District likely Democratic primary voters. The Tulchin Research data focuses only on the 2nd District, and though their sample size of 400 respondents is approximately only half the size of the Pan Atlantic aggregate, in actuality it is the better sample.

Looking closely at the Pan Atlantic report, we find that only 144 individuals comprise the 2nd District Democratic primary subset. This is barely large enough to form a segment cell let alone a sample for an entire congressional district. Therefore, while this Pan Atlantic survey is viable to forecast the statewide general election races, its candidate preference data for the 2nd District Democrats that shows Sen. Baldacci holding a large lead should be discarded.

The better picture comes from the Tulchin Research data. Their polling sample of 400 likely partisan primary voters is sound, thus the projection of Dunlap leading the Democratic primary beyond the polling margin of error is the more believable study.

Expect this Democratic primary to be hard fought through the June 9 primary election. The winner will then face former Gov. LePage in what promises to be a highly competitive general election congressional contest in a race that carries national implications relating to which party will control the House of Representatives in the next Congress.