Platner Withdraws

Graham Platner, Democratic nominee for Maine’s US Senate seat, announces he is withdrawing from the race.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Senate

After issuing yesterday an 11-minute video to announce that he is withdrawing from the Maine US Senate race, Democratic nominee Graham Platner is under increased criticism for refusing to take individual responsibility for his once promising campaign crashing and burning.

Instead, Platner spent most of his video time blaming “they,” who he says made it impossible for him to continue his campaign. The reference is apparently directed toward the Democratic leaders who stated they would not spend national or state party money to help him if he remained in the race.

In the video, Platner categorically denied the “serious accusations” – presumably referring to Jenny Racicot’s statements alleging that he raped her earlier this decade – saying that “the things that have been claimed did not happen … it is not real.” Platner then went on to blame much “larger world forces” that are targeting him and rebuffed the accusations as “not remotely true.”

Platner further said, “it is not the false allegations that have brought us to where we are, it is the fact that they are being used by the political establishment to put structural pressure on us…those in power are using these allegations as an excuse to take away all of the things we need to run a campaign…on the basic level simply to function.”

He went on to say that “we went toe to toe with one of the most entrenched political systems in the history of the world and we won.” Is he referring to the Democratic National Committee? To the Maine Democratic Party? Now, Platner says, “those in power” are taking away his ability to continue, which is why he is suspending the campaign.

If the allegations are false as Platner says, then why leave the race? He claims he has no ability to continue the campaign because he will be cut off from funding, but with the amount of free earned media he draws and the “movement” of people behind him, it seems possible that he could traverse this rocky period.

If so, the money would return because the national Democrats need this seat if they are to have any chance of flipping the Senate majority and would certainly find a way to fund the effort. With last week’s US Supreme Court decision making party communication and candidate coordination much freer, the national and state Democratic party structure could move quickly with less legal impediments toward supporting a rebounding campaign.

It will now be interesting to see if Platner will face any legal consequences involving the rape accusations, and whether more women will come forward. In his video, Platner basically calls Racicot a liar. His action could encourage her to continue to further speak out and put pressure on the local authorities to investigate the situation as the crime that she claims his action to be.

In the immediate term, however, the Maine Democratic Party leaders must now decide upon a system to choose a new nominee without any direction from state law. They are apparently looking toward calling a snap convention to choose a nominee, hoping to attract as many as 500 delegates from the various counties and localities.

Their principal problem, however, is the clock. They have only until July 27, at the latest, to replace Platner assuming he turns in his withdrawal paperwork at the Monday, July 13 deadline. Logistically, this will require a major effort replete with criticism no matter how they proceed.

For his part, Platner says that he is not demanding any specific person be chosen as his replacement, rather, that the process be “open, transparent, and democratic.”

In that regard, another solution would be to have Gov. Janet Mills (D) call a special legislative session to institute a special Ranked Choice primary election for a point in August or even early September, just as the other New England states all have (Connecticut and Vermont: Aug 11; Massachusetts: Sept 1; New Hampshire: Sept 8; Rhode Island: Sept 9).

With Democrats holding the Governorship and majorities in both houses of the legislature, it seems this option would be the most open and transparent, while giving the people the opportunity of choosing the replacement nominee.

During this period of Democratic indecision, Maine voters can expect to see a wave of positive ads coming from Sen. Susan Collins’ campaign.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Platner Under Pressure

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner’s video response to yesterday’s rape allegations.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 7 2026

US Senate

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner is now under extreme pressure to end his campaign and do so before July 13 so the Maine Democratic Party can choose a replacement. If Platner does leave the race, the party must replace him by July 27. Therefore, Platner’s decision and the party working to replace him must happen quickly.

A parade of Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and many other congressional and left-of-center organization leaders are now calling for Platner to withdraw from the race.

After a series of past behavioral issues involving women, claiming a fellow soldier should have died on the battlefield for disobeying military procedure even though the soldier was drawing enemy fire onto himself in order to save others, and claiming he is an oyster farmer when he only has one customer, his mother’s restaurant, the latest accusation may be the final blow.

Yesterday, Maine resident Jenny Rocicot said, according to CBS News, that “[Platner] violated multiple layers of consent that night. By coming into my home when I asked him not to, and by advancing on me when I told him not to, and furthermore, another incident that I had told him not to do.” She further said that Platner “raped her by definition.”

Platner responded by saying the allegation is “categorically false.” He further said, “regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful of the political reality it will inflict, we are taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to, and the goal of defeating [Senator] Susan Collins. Those were the goals when we launched this campaign, and they remain my goals today,” Platner recited in a publicly released video message.

Reports are also surfacing indicating that Platner will leave the race by the end of the week. The candidate, however, has not yet confirmed that he will do so.

If he does suspend his campaign, the Maine Democratic Party will have to navigate uncharted waters. Maine election law gives no direction as to how a party must replace a withdrawn candidate, only that it must do so by the second Monday after the contender’s official resignation of candidacy statement, in this case July 27.

Therefore, the Maine Democratic leadership has no procedural guidelines. They are reportedly considering developing a type of caucus vote, or possibly a snap state convention. Another report says the state party leaders have already rejected giving the power to choose the replacement nominee to the 100-member Maine State Democratic Committee.

The Caucus idea seems fraught with peril. Initial challenges could arise since they would be unlikely to adhere to Maine’s deadlines for a candidate filing period and not giving potential candidates time to gather ballot access petition signatures.

Furthermore, any type of election would be subject to Ranked Choice Voting, which would take effect if no candidate reached 50 percent in an election. The RCV period would consume too much time after the vote to fall within the candidate replacement time parameters that state law sets.

Thus, aside from having the state chairman and/or state executive committee naming the replacement nominee, the most viable option would likely be hosting a snap convention. With only two weeks to prepare, however, logistics such as where to hold the heavily attended event and who would be allowed to participate could derail any type of major gathering.

In short, because there are no legal guidelines regarding replacing a nominated candidate, virtually any decision the state party leaders make will be open to question and perhaps legal challenges.

Additionally, if the party does find a way to replace Platner by the 27th, we can expect the Susan Collins campaign to attack their disregard of democracy. Protecting democracy is a major Democratic talking point, and the party would be vulnerable to an attack that highlights the hypocrisy of their rhetoric.

The Collins campaign, for example, could point to the national Democratic Party jettisoning President Biden from the 2024 national ticket after 14-plus million people had voted for him in party primaries and caucuses, and now the Maine Democratic Party is disregarding the votes of 156,084 Maine Democrats who awarded Platner 72.1 percent of the primary vote on June 9.

If so, the argument would be that both men were forced from their nominated position once it became evident that neither could win their respective general election thus making the people’s votes dispensable.

Regardless of what happens, the Maine situation will develop very quickly and promises to be a major political story for the next several weeks.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Could Sen. Markey of Massachusetts Be the Next Incumbent to Fall?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 2, 2026

US Senate

A new Massachusetts political survey finds Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) closing the gap with Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a Democratic Senate primary ballot test, an early indication that Bay State Democrats could become the next constituency to seriously threaten an incumbent seeking renomination.

With the Colorado primary completed earlier this week, 31 states have now nominated candidates or advanced contenders to runoff elections. July brings only one state primary – Arizona on the 21st (and a South Dakota runoff on the 27th) – creating a brief respite before the August and September primaries conclude the 2026 nomination process.

So far, 10 incumbents have felt the wrath of their own party’s voters. Seven US House members (5 Democrats; 2 Republicans) have been defeated for renomination along with two Senators (2 Republicans). A third Senator, Colorado’s Michael Bennet (D), also lost on Tuesday, but he was running for Governor and not forced to risk his federal position.

The University of New Hampshire’s latest survey of Massachusetts voters (June 18-23; 633 likely general election voters; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows Sen. Markey’s lead over Rep. Moulton narrowing to 41-35 percent.

Though the Democratic polling sample is small for a statewide survey, the findings align with other previously released data. Emerson College’s May poll (May 3-4; 451 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) detected a 37-32 percent Markey advantage. UNH’s April Massachusetts survey (April 16-20; 353 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found Markey ahead 46-33 percent.

Though the Senator still leads in every publicly released poll, his margins are not commanding. He has failed to exceed the 50 percent support level in any statewide Democratic primary survey since October 2025.

Additional indicators suggest the race merits close attention as the Sept. 1 primary approaches. At the Massachusetts Democratic convention on May 30, Markey won a strong 72.9 percent of the 3,762 delegate votes. Rep. Moulton’s 27.1 percent share, however, easily surpassed the 15 percent threshold required to secure a primary ballot line.

Fundraising numbers also point to a competitive contest. While second‑quarter reports will not be released until at least July 15, the March 31 Federal Election Commission filing showed Moulton with $3.3 million cash on hand compared to Markey’s $2.5 million. Sen. Markey is expected to post significantly stronger numbers in the next report, potentially aided by independent coalition support. If he does not, it would further reinforce the perception of a serious primary challenge.

Should Rep. Moulton deny the Senator renomination, it will not be considered a Democratic Socialist victory. Rep. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who has won two Bronze Star medals along with a Navy and Marine Corps Commendation medal, is not a DSA candidate, and during his dozen years in the House has cast some politically moderate votes. So far in the Senate campaign, however, he has moved distinctly to the left.

While a Moulton upset would differ from the recent DSA‑aligned victories in the New York and Colorado US House primaries, it would nonetheless underscore the high level of frustration within both parties’ electorates. Should this trend persist, the general election could bring an unusually large number of incumbent defeats.

Colorado Primary Results:
Sen. Bennet & Rep. DeGette Lose

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Colorado

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D)

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

What once appeared as a virtual sure bet for Sen. Michael Bennet to be elected Governor turned to defeat last night, and the result wasn’t close; and with pre-election polling trends running against 15-term Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver), she too became another incumbent loss statistic.

Sen. Bennet will continue in his present position. Because his seat was not in-cycle this year – it next comes before the voters in 2028 – the loss does not cost the Senator his political career. His 2028 situation, should he choose to seek re-election as Senator, would certainly make him more vulnerable in a new Democratic primary, however.

The Governor’s race should not be considered a Democratic Socialist win. While Attorney General Phil Weiser, who beat Sen. Bennet 56-44 percent, is certainly on the ideological left, he did not campaign as a socialist. Rather, he won this campaign by simply being the better candidate and very likely outworking Sen. Bennet, who still had to spend considerable campaign time in Washington doing his present job.

Weiser, who won two statewide races as Attorney General but was term-limited in 2026, has a compelling story in that his mother was born in a concentration camp during WWII because his grandmother was being held as a prisoner of the Nazi regime. Furthermore, with a political party moving closer toward the Palestinian coalition and away from Israel, Weiser highlighted his Jewish heritage and still won going away. Therefore, this incumbent defeat is not like most of the others we’ve seen this year but is another indication that perceived establishment candidates are doing poorly.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)

In Denver’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. DeGette suffered a 51-42 percent defeat at the hands of 29-year-old Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros. Polling showed DeGette trailing, and she qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes at the 1st District nominating convention. Each clue revealed Rep. DeGette’s weakness in campaigning for renomination. Conversely, at the district nominating convention, Kiros attracted almost 70 percent of the delegate votes.

There are now seven House incumbents and two Senators who have been denied renomination. Now, added to these numbers, we have a sitting multi-term Senator running in an open Governor’s race who fails to claim his party’s nomination.

Of the seven, five – now including DeGette – are Democrats. The others are Reps. Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY) and Adriano Espaillat (D-NY). The Republicans are Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) and Thomas Massie (R-KY).

Democratic Socialists are responsible for three of the defeats: Reps. DeGette, Goldman, and Espaillat.

Al Green attempts to blame his loss on a new redistricting map, but the overwhelming majority of the new 18th District constituency carried over from his own district, suggesting the new district boundaries were not the principal reason for his losing to recently elected Congressman Christian Menefee, 68-32 percent.

In the case of freshman Rep. Johnson, redistricting was a major factor in her losing to former Congressman Colin Allred, since her 32nd District was transformed into a Republican seat, thus forcing her to seek re-election in the newly drawn 33rd District.

On the Republican side, Rep. Crenshaw’s loss in his Harris County-anchored CD began the string of incumbent losses. Rep. Massie, likely the most well-known nationally of the defeated Representatives, lost because of his feud with President Trump; this was also the case with Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA). Being tabbed by Trump as the most anti-Trump Republican Congressman led to Massie suffering a 55-45 percent loss in a district that he had won seven times.

Turning back to Colorado, Sen. John Hickenlooper (D) was renominated in his campaign, but with only a 55-45 percent margin against another Democratic Socialist candidate, state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), who he outspent by an 8:1 ratio.

In the 3rd Congressional District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) scored a lopsided 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Ron Hanks. The general election looks to be competitive as Rep. Hurd will face Real Estate company CEO Dwayne Romero, who last night defeated venture capitalist Alex Kirloff even though the latter man had a huge spending advantage.

In what promises to be a very close 8th District general election, state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) won the right to challenge freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Thornton). The Rutinel victory margin of 61-34 percent over former state Rep. Shannon Bird was much more substantial than predicted.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Letlow Wins Louisiana Senate Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 29, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R)

The late polling numbers suggesting that Saturday’s Louisiana Republican Senate runoff was headed for a photo finish proved inaccurate.

Despite ballot test data indicating that State Treasurer John Fleming had a chance to upset Rep. Julia Letlow (R Start), the Congresswoman instead posted a strong 57-43 percent victory, closely mirroring polling released shortly after the May 16 primary.

Rep. Letlow is now the official Republican nominee, which almost guarantees her entrance into the Senate next year.

A major theme in the later phase of the campaign was the debate over a carbon capture procedure, an issue on which Dr. Fleming sharply criticized both Rep. Letlow and Gov. Jeff Landry (R).

The carbon topic drew significant media attention and dominated much of the advertising, particularly from the Fleming campaign. At the time, many political analysts believed the carbon capture issue was moving votes, helping explain Fleming’s apparent rise in late polling.

Immediately after the primary, Rep. Letlow opened with an average 57-36 percent lead based on two public polls – Harper Polling (May 18-19; 457 likely GOP runoff voters) and Kaplan Strategies (May 24-26; 850 likely GOP runoff voters) – each showing nearly identical results.

As the runoff approached, however, the race appeared to tighten. BDPC (June 15–16; likely GOP runoff voters) found Letlow ahead just 40–38 percent. JMC Analytics (June 21–22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters), polling for the Fleming campaign, even showed its candidate leading 45-40 percent. The final pre runoff survey, from Quantus Insights (June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), placed Letlow back in front but with only a 48-45 percent edge.

With these late polls suggesting a toss up, uncertainty surrounded the final days of the campaign. Ultimately, however, the close polling proved inaccurate, and Rep. Letlow secured a decisive win.

Turnout for the runoff was abnormally high. According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s unofficial report, 316,538 votes were cast in the Republican contest, 79 percent of the May 16 primary total. Runoffs typically draw between 50 percent and 67 percent of primary participation, making Saturday’s turnout unusually strong and likely benefiting Letlow.

Dr. Fleming performed well in his former 4th Congressional District, carrying most parishes in the region. He previously represented western Louisiana for four terms in the US House before risking the seat for an unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid. The rest of the state, aside from Orleans Parish, voted solidly for Letlow. She dominated her home 5th District and performed strongly in southern Louisiana’s Cajun Country.

Although Dr. Fleming had a long-standing relationship with President Trump – including service in two Administration roles and as Deputy White House Chief of Staff – he did not receive the all-important presidential endorsement.

President Trump instead announced his support for Rep. Letlow early, even before she formally entered the race, believing she was the strongest candidate to topple Sen. Bill Cassidy in the primary and hold the seat for Republicans in the general election. It is likely that this pre-election analysis will prove correct in November.

Democrats also held a Senate runoff. Farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate Jamie Davis defeated businessman and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett by a wide 80–20 percent margin. Democratic turnout was under 197,000, far below Republican participation. Davis now enters the general election as a significant underdog against Rep. Letlow.

While national Democrats are seeking to expand the Senate map, Louisiana is an unlikely target for a major investment of campaign resources. With a statewide partisan lean of 58.3R – 41.7%D (Dave’s Redistricting App) and a Democratic nominee without a national fundraising base, the 2026 Louisiana Senate race is expected to be relatively quiet and culminate in a Republican victory.