The Sour New Hampshire Electorate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 2, 2026

New Hampshire Polling

A local college recently tested the attitudes of New Hampshire voters regarding policy issues and their elected officials and found a seemingly embittered sampling universe.

Yet, even with such pessimistic perceptions, the respondents’ choices pertaining to candidate preference remain surprisingly consistent with past voting patterns. Based upon the issue responses, one would have guessed the Democrats would be opening a wide lead, but such is not the case.

The St. Anselm’s College poll (March 16-18; 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters; online) tested several races on the New Hampshire ballot. In the open US Senate race, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), who has successfully positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate, leads former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent clip. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, the ballot test would favor Rep. Pappas, 47-38 percent.

Emerson College released their new New Hampshire survey (March 21-23; 1,000 likely New Hampshire general election voters; multiple sampling techniques), conducted after St. Anselm’s, and the pollsters find the Senate general election candidates floating in the same range, but even closer. Looking at the Emerson Senate ballot test results, Pappas holds only a 45-44 percent edge over Sununu, and tops Brown 48-39 percent.

The Emerson Republican primary split (524 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters tested) also projects a stronger Sununu lead against Brown, 48-19 percent. St. Anselm’s saw a 49-28 percent Republican primary split in favor of Sununu.

In the Governor’s race, St. Anselm’s projects incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R), who is seeking a second two-year term this year, to hold a 46-39 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D). If business owner Jon Kiper were the Democratic nominee, Gov. Ayotte’s lead would be 45-31 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District campaign, St. Anselm’s tested the rematch between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 GOP nominee Lily Tang Williams. The results found Rep. Goodlander not surprisingly leading the 2026 contest, 48-36 percent. In 2024, Goodlander defeated Williams, 51-45 percent in their open seat contest.

All of the numbers seem consistent with where one would guess the races lie based upon New Hampshire voter history, but understanding that the previous voting trends are in and of themselves somewhat inconsistent.

Republicans haven’t done particularly well in the state during this century – President Trump has lost here three times, for example – but the Sununu family has prospered. Former Gov. Chris Sununu was elected four consecutive times. John E. Sununu, while losing the 2008 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen in the Obama landslide year, was still elected to the House three times and once to the US Senate.

Therefore, the ballot test numbers appear legitimate, and since both St. Anselm’s and Emerson fall into the same range on the Senate race (Emerson did not test the down ballot races), it is reasonable to surmise that the surveys fall within the proper accuracy realm.

Where the ballot test numbers and the policy responses seem at odds pertain to the entire sample’s tone. All of the questions, from the Trump approval rating (42 percent positive; 58 percent negative) to the Iran War (40 percent approve; 58 percent disapprove), to believing the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right track; 61 percent wrong track), and New Hampshire is also on the wrong track (36 percent right track; 50 percent wrong track) suggest that the electorate is ready to replace incumbent party en masse.

Additionally, none of the tested elected officials even as individuals are positively viewed (Trump: 42:58 positive to negative; VP J.D. Vance: 42:56; Sec of State Marco Rubio: 44:53; Gov. Kelly Ayotte: 48:48; Rep. Chris Pappas: 46:46).

These cumulative responses and the Democrats holding a 49 to 41 percent edge on the congressional ballot test (if the election for Congress were held today, for which candidate would you likely vote: Democratic, Republican, Other, Unsure) would lead an observer to believe that the Democrats have a clear advantage in the state. As you have seen on the individual questions, however, when asked about their specific voter preference, in most cases the Democratic advantage is either narrow or non-existent.

While the current period is clearly a negative one for the Trump Administration and the GOP congressional leadership, and most certainly believed as such in New Hampshire, the representative polling sample fails to indicate a strong commitment to ousting the Republicans.

With still months to go before the general election, Republicans have time to rebound and likely will if things progress positively in Iran and with the national economy. In any event, the closing weeks associated with these midterm elections promise to deliver many more surprises.

In SC-1, It’s Mark Sanford … Again

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 1, 2026

US HOUSE

Former South Carolina Governor and ex-Rep. Mark Sanford (R)

The open campaign to replace South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) became more interesting as candidate filing closed on Monday.

Among the late entries is former Governor and ex-1st District Congressman Mark Sanford (R) who served bookend stints in the House before and after his eight years as South Carolina’s chief executive. Toward the end of his gubernatorial tenure, Sanford’s career was marked with an international extramarital affair involving a South American woman that became a national news story. Despite the adverse publicity, he was able to finish his term as Governor and would subsequently again win the 1st District US House seat.

Sanford was first elected to Congress in an open seat 1994 campaign pledging to serve only three terms. He fulfilled his campaign pledge by not seeking re-election in 2000, but then ran for Governor, winning the statewide post both in 2002 and 2006. He was thought to be planning a presidential run in 2012, but the nationwide affair publicity ended any hope of him becoming a serious presidential candidate.

In 2013, after then-Gov. Nikki Haley (R) appointed then-Congressman Tim Scott to the US Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R), Sanford entered the open special election for the 1st Congressional District and surprised many by again winning the seat. He would then be re-elected to full terms in 2014 and 2016. He would lose renomination in 2018, however. Sanford had become an ardent critic of President Trump, which in large measure cost him the seat.

Again, sounding the theme of opposing the large deficit spending that Congress approves, Sanford this week launched his third open seat campaign for the 1st District seat. The CD is open in 2026 because incumbent Rep. Mace is running for Governor.

In addition to Sanford, a dozen other Republicans also filed their campaign committees, meaning we will see a spirited campaign develop as the large field of contenders rush toward the June 9 primary. South Carolina features a run-off nomination system, as do many of the southern states, but the Palmetto State version is unique. While most feature a month-long runoff cycle or longer, South Carolina allows only a two-week campaign. Therefore, the runoff is scheduled for June 23.

Sanford clearly has more name identification than any other current 1st District candidate and again could prove victorious. Within the field we see four sitting elected officials: state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island), Dorchester County Councilman Jay Byars, Beaufort County Councilman Logan Cunningham, and Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt. Another significant candidate, physician Sam McCown, self-funded and raised over $1.2 million before year-end 2025, while Rep. Smith amassed just over $600,000, also as the previous year ended.

It is likely that Rep. Smith is the strongest within the candidate group in addition to Sanford. Coupled with credible fundraising, Smith has assembled a wide array of endorsements that include former 1st District Congressmen Henry Brown and Tommy Hartnett. It wouldn’t be surprising to see he and Sanford qualify for the runoff election.

Considering that Sanford was a vocal anti-Trumper earlier in his career, it is likely that the President will look elsewhere for a candidate to support, possibly Rep. Smith, if he decides to get involved in the race. The Trump endorsement is still a prize in most Republican primaries.

South Carolina’s 1st District occupies the southern portion of the state’s Atlantic coastline, beginning just above the Georgia border and stretching halfway toward North Carolina. The CD contains Beaufort and Berkeley Counties along with parts of Charleston, Colleton and Dorchester, and a sliver of Jasper County. While housing approximately 45 percent of Charleston County, it contains none of the city of Charleston. The 1st CD includes the Low Country islands along with the Hilton Head, Bluffton, Beaufort, Moncks Corner, and Mount Pleasant communities.

Politically, SC-1 is reliably Republican. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation is 55.6R – 42.6D. In 2024, President Trump carried SC-1 with a 55.7 – 42.7 percent victory margin.

The 1st District has been in Republican hands since the 1980 election, with only Democrat Joe Cunningham winning the seat in a 2018 upset. He would lose re-election to Mace in 2020. Since unseating Rep. Cunningham in 2020 by 5,415 votes, Rep. Mace’s average win percentage in her two re-election campaigns has been 57.3 percent.

Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette Barely Survives Ballot Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 31 2026

US House

Colorado Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver)

Current US House member Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) of Colorado barely survived a ballot challenge at the Democratic Assembly caucuses over the weekend.

Under Colorado election procedure, a candidate may qualify for the ballot in two ways. First, receive at least 30 percent support from the party assembly delegates; second, submit 1,500 valid registered voter petition signatures. Candidates can both participate in the assembly and file petitions.

At the 1st Congressional District Assembly this past Saturday, Rep. DeGette received only 33 percent of the delegate vote opposite attorney Melat Kiros.

According to The Down Ballot political blog, 235 delegates were present and voting, meaning just 78 of the participating individuals voted for the 15-term incumbent. The result indicates that she earned ballot placement by just eight votes. Rep. DeGette did not file petitions as a safeguard against performing poorly at the assembly; therefore, she risked renomination defeat had she fallen below the 30 percent threshold.

A third 1st District Democratic congressional candidate, University of Colorado Regent Wanda James, did not participate in the assembly but filed signature petitions.

Therefore, it appears Rep. DeGette has a serious primary challenge in the June 30 Colorado plurality primary election. According to the 2025 year-end Federal Election Commission financial disclosure statement, the Congresswoman held just over $535,000 in her campaign account. Kiros raised over $230,000 and James slightly under $180,000.

Though the delegate vote was overwhelming for Kiros, the assembly result is not necessarily representative of the 1st District Democratic primary vote base. It does show, however, that Kiros is a serious candidate and has significant grassroots support among the most active regular party primary voters.

Rep. DeGette is certainly not the only veteran Democratic incumbent facing a competitive primary challenge. Three, for example, face former US House members. Opposing Reps. April McClain Delaney (D-MD), Wesley Bell (D-MO), and Julie Johnson (TX-33) are former members who previously held the respective seat.

At this point, in addition to Rep. DeGette, 16 other Democratic congressional incumbents must run a serious campaign for renomination. Fewer Republicans face primary challenges, though Texas US Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) has already been defeated in the March 3 GOP primary.

Below is a list of the other significant Democratic challenge campaigns that are worth watching as primary season progresses. The principal challengers are also identified (source: Politics1 website):

  • CA-4: Rep. Mike Thompson vs. venture capitalist Eric Jones (California jungle primary is June 2)
  • CA-7: Rep. Doris Matsui vs. Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang and two other Democrats (jungle primary)
  • CA-17: Rep. Ro Khanna vs. financial tech executive Ethan Agarwal and cybersecurity engineer Mike Katz (jungle primary)
  • CA-32: Rep. Brad Sherman vs. ex-Biden White House aide Jake Levine, son of former Congressman Mel Levine, and five other Democrats (jungle primary)
  • CT-1: Rep. John Larson vs. former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin; state Rep. Jillian Gilchrest, and two other Democrats (Connecticut plurality primary is Aug. 11)
  • FL-20: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick vs. Luke Campbell, entertainer and former Miami Mayor candidate, ex-Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, ex-Sunrise City Commissioner Mark Douglas, community organizer Elijah Manley, and physician Rudy Moise. Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick is under federal indictment, and the House Ethics Committee last week found her guilty of 25 ethics violations. (Florida plurality primary is Aug. 18)
  • GA-13: Rep. David Scott vs. state Sen. Emanuel Jones, state Rep. Jasmine Clark, ex-Gwinnett County School Board Chair Everton Blair, and three others. (Georgia primary is May 19; runoff June 16 if no one receives majority support)
  • HI-1: Rep. Ed Case vs. state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, former state House Majority Leader Della Belatti, and two others. (Hawaii plurality primary is Aug. 8)
  • IN-7: Rep. Andre Carson vs. consultant George Hornedo, and two others (Indiana plurality primary is May 5)
  • MD-6: Rep. April McClain Delaney vs. ex-Rep. David Trone, and six other Democrats (Maryland plurality primary is June 23)
  • MI-13: Rep. Shri Thanedar vs. state Rep. Donovan McKinney and three others (Michigan plurality primary is Aug. 4)
  • MN-5: Rep. Ilhan Omar vs. MN AFSCME Vice-President & DNC Member Latonya Reeves and attorney Julie Le (Minnesota plurality primary is Aug. 11)
  • MO-1: Rep. Wesley Bell vs. former Rep. Cori Bush and four other Democrats (Missouri plurality primary is Aug. 4)
  • NY-15: Rep. Ritchie Torres vs. ex-state Assemblyman Michael Blake and three others (New York plurality primary is June 23)
  • TN-9: Rep. Steve Cohen vs. state Rep. Justin Pearson, pastor DeVante Hill, and businessman LaTroy Alexandria-Williams (Tennessee plurality primary is Aug. 6)
  • TX-33: Rep. Julie Johnson vs. ex-Rep. Colin Allred in runoff election from March 3 primary (Texas runoff election day is May 26)

Missouri Rep. Sam Graves to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 30, 2026

House

Veteran US Rep. Sam Graves (R-Tarkio)
of Missouri

Veteran US Rep. Sam Graves (R-Tarkio), the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee who has represented northern Missouri since the turn of the century, will not seek re-election later this year. Rep. Graves, who had previously filed his documents to mount a campaign, changed his mind about running, now saying he believes it is his time to step aside.

Graves was initially elected to the House in 2000 and only dropped below 60 percent support one time in his 12 re-election campaigns. Prior to serving in Congress, Graves won seats in both the Missouri state House of Representatives and state Senate. He has been in elective office consecutively since the 1992 election.

The Graves retirement means there are temporarily 61 open US House seats headed to the next election. The number will recede to 59 when the special elections in GA-14 (April 7) and NJ-11 (April 16) occur to fill vacant seats. Of the 61 open positions, 27 members, including Rep. Graves, are retiring from elective politics. The remainder are running, or have run, for a different office.

Missouri’s 6th District contains the state’s northern counties beyond Kansas City to the Iowa border and all the way to the western Illinois border. Under the new Missouri congressional map drawn for the 2026 election cycle, the 6th now contains a significant part of Kansas City including the major Kansas City International Airport and the North Kansas City community.

The addition of the Kansas City metro region reduces the district’s Republican partisan lean by approximately six percentage points, but CD-6 remains as the GOP’s third strongest domain in the Show Me State. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean calculations, the new MO-6 records a 61.5R – 36.5D split. President Trump received 68.8 percent of the vote in the previous district as compared to Kamala Harris’ 30.0 percent.

With the Missouri candidate filing deadline expiring tomorrow, we can expect a number of candidates to come forward to file in the new open 6th District. The eventual Republican nominee coming from the Aug. 4 primary should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

Whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains in question, however, even as candidate filing is closing. Petition signatures have been filed for an initiative to repeal the new map, but the qualification process is not complete. More than enough signatures have been submitted to meet the basic requirement for ballot line acquisition, but whether all additional legal requirements have been met remains unanswered.

Therefore, as the candidates file under the new map, the possibility remains that the repeal initiative could force a re-filing under the previous map. A court ruling on Friday upheld the new plan, but the Secretary of State has until the Aug. 4 primary to rule on signature validation.

According to Missouri initiative law, a ballot proposition requires signatures equal to five percent of the total number of votes cast for the most recent gubernatorial campaign. In this case, the 2024 gubernatorial election saw 2,960,266 ballots cast, meaning the five percent total would require 148,013 valid signatures.

The procedure, however, requires the petitions to equal five percent of the gubernatorial total vote in two-thirds of the state’s congressional districts, or likely six of the eight. Therefore, the actual number of required signatures could be lower than the calculated statewide total. The redistricting opponents have submitted more than 305,000 signatures.

The new draw centers around the state’s 5th District that veteran Congressman Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) represents. Instead of being a Kansas City metro district, the new 5th stretches from the city of Independence eastward through central Missouri and past the capital city of Jefferson City.

The new map changes the 5th District from a seat with a DRA partisan lean of 60.8D – 35.9R to one that would likely elect a Republican with a 56.6R – 41.1D spread. The remaining seven seats, 6R and 1D, will remain with the current party.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Flawed Texas Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 26, 2026

Senate

We are about to see a new wave of Texas Senate polling, but will the accuracy rate be better than what was produced for the March 3 primary election?

A new Change Research survey conducted for the Agave Social Welfare Fund (March 17-19; 807 registered Texas voters; online) finds Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn 42-39 percent in the upcoming May 26 Republican runoff election, but if polling accuracy from the primary is an indicator, this result means little.

As you may remember, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the GOP Senate primary with a 42-41-13 percent spread over Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). According to the last six polls conducted during the final 11 days before the primary, the period covering Feb. 19 through March 2, Paxton was leading the race by seven points according to the mean average figure from the concluding six polls.

The six research firms conducting the surveys were: Peek Insights (Feb. 19-23; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 529 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Victory Phones (Feb. 24-25; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Quantus Insights (Feb. 26-27; 939 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 547 likely Texas Republican primary voters), and YouGov (Feb. 26-March 2; 1,659 likely Texas Republican primary voters).

The one closest from this group conducted their study furthest from the election, Peek Insights, over the Feb. 19-23 period. Peek found a 36-36-14 percent result, which is very close to the actual 42-41-13 percent.

Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24) was furthest away. The firm found Paxton holding a twelve point, 42-30 percent, advantage. In actuality, the Blueprint result was close regarding Paxton’s preference figure, but well away from Cornyn’s support level and margin.

Looking at the aggregate result from the six aforementioned pollsters, the Paxton average lead of seven points means the group cumulatively missed the final tally by eight points when adding Sen. Cornyn’s actual one-point edge.

Therefore, the new Change Research 42-39 percent ballot test conclusion should be viewed with a wary eye since the cumulative primary data, by and large, badly missed the mark.

On the Democratic side in a Senate nomination race where state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) outright by a 52-46 percent margin, four pollsters conducted surveys prior to the March 3 primary. The results were mixed.

The four research firms conducting surveys during the Feb. 23 – March 2 period were Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 472 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Public Policy Polling (Feb. 25; 599 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 850 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and YouGov (Feb.26-March 2; 2,408 likely Texas Democratic primary voters).

Emerson College’s 52-47 percent ballot test result with Talarico leading was virtually right on target. Public Policy Polling was also close with their 48-42 percent split, a six-point spread that proved correct.

The two missed surveys were from Blueprint Polling (52-40 percent; correctly projecting the Talarico percentage but badly underestimating Crockett’s support), and YouGov (53-40 percent, basically the same ballot test result as Blueprint). YouGov, as well, correctly determined the Talarico support level but severely undercounted the Crockett support base.

Because Talarico won the Democratic primary without a runoff means we won’t see any significant general election polling until the electorate breaks closer to the November vote. Some polls will be released, of course, but they are likely to show what early cycle Texas studies commonly project: a tight race. Until October, expect close polling but allow for a wide accuracy curve.

Markwayne Mullin Confirmed;
Armstrong Now Oklahoma Senator

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Senate

Oklahoma’s Markwayne Mullin yesterday won Senate confirmation to his new position as Secretary of Homeland Security. A day before, Mullin resigned from the Senate thus creating a new open seat for the 2026 election cycle.

Energy businessman and now Oklahoma Sen. Alan Armstrong (R)

Mullin was first elected to the House in 2012 and was re-elected four times. He won a special election to the Senate in 2022 replacing then-Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) who resigned the seat for family reasons after serving 28 years. Immediately upon the Mullin confirmation, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy businessman Alan Armstrong (R) to serve the balance of the current term.

Under Oklahoma procedure, when a Senate vacancy occurs the Governor appoints a replacement. The person agreeing to accept the appointment then signs an oath saying he or she will not seek election to the succeeding term. Therefore, Sen. Armstrong will only serve until just after the special election, which is scheduled concurrently with the regular election cycle.

Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle this year, the winner of the regular term — likely the person who wins the concurrent special election — will earn a full six-year term. The odds-on favorite to win both elections is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) who announced for the seat as soon as then-Sen. Mullin was designated as the new Homeland Security Secretary.

The Mullin resignation means there will be 11 open US Senate races in this cycle, seven from the Republican side as compared to four open Democratic seats.

Alan Armstrong was born and raised in the Bartlesville area of northern Oklahoma. He graduated from the University of Oklahoma and then went to work for the Williams energy company where he spent his professional career, rising to the company’s top position serving from 2011 to 2025. After retiring, he became a member of the Williams company Board of Directors from which he resigned to accept the short-term Senate appointment.

Oklahoma has a unique procedure for the appointment process that disqualifies the appointee from running for the seat to which they are chosen. While unconstitutional to pass a law that prohibits a citizen from seeking political office, the state lawmakers got around the requirement by having the appointment process include the signing of the oath pledging not to run.

If an individual decided to break the oath, it would be difficult for the state to pursue action against the person because of the individual’s constitutional right to participate in the political process. There is no indication in this case that Sen. Armstrong will attempt to break his oath.

Rep. Hern is cementing his case to become a consensus Senate candidate. After his formal announcement of candidacy, both Gov. Stitt, who had not expressed clear interest in running for the Senate, and Rep. Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) who confirmed she was contemplating entering the race, both announced they would not run.

In the Republican primary, the announced candidates challenging Rep. Hern are real estate broker Sean Buckner, IT professional Nick Hankins, nurse Ron Meinhardt, and non-profit CEO Wayne Washington.

For the Democrats, progressive activist Evan Beck, private investigator Troy Green, janitor Rebekah LaVann, retired attorney Jim Priest, and nurse N’Kiyla Thomas have declared their candidacies.

The Oklahoma candidate filing deadline is April 3, so time remains for a stronger contender in both parties to come forward. With no former or current elected official in the overall field, it appears that Rep. Hern is a lock to become the consensus Republican nominee and a prohibitive favorite for the general election.