Will Colorado Rep. DeGette be Next to Fall to a Democratic Socialist?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2026

US House

Six House members have already been denied renomination this cycle, and next week’s Colorado primary could add another to the list.

Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Denver) is facing a serious challenge from attorney and Democratic Socialist Melat Kiros in a race that pegs a far left liberal against a traditional liberal incumbent. Congresswoman DeGette has been in office since winning her first term in 1996, ironically a year before her opponent was born.

The June 23 New York primary underscored the strength of the Democratic Socialist candidates. Three DSA‑aligned contenders won congressional primaries in New York City, victories that all but assure them seats in November. Two of the winners defeated incumbents: Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat. In Brooklyn, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won a crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D).

In both the Goldman and Espaillat races, the challengers overcame major financial disadvantages. Brad Lander, the former NYC Comptroller, defeated Rep. Goldman despite being outspent 7:1; Goldman spent more than $7 million attempting to hold his seat but lost 66-34 percent. Darializa Avila Chevalier edged Rep. Espaillat 49-46 percent, despite a 2:1 spending deficit.

Earlier in the year, three additional incumbents, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX), Al Green (D‑TX), and Thomas Massie (R‑KY), were defeated by wide margins. A sixth incumbent loss stemmed from redistricting rather than voter rejection.

In Texas’ newly drawn 33rd District, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred defeated freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch). Although the district lies entirely within Dallas County, most of its territory was unfamiliar to Johnson and markedly different from her original 32nd District, which was transformed into a Republican‑leaning seat stretching into East Texas.

These results reflect a broader frustration within both party bases and recent signs suggest that Colorado Democrats may be experiencing similar tensions.

Rep. DeGette’s vulnerability became apparent when she barely qualified for the ballot at the 1st District nominating convention. Colorado candidates must either secure 30 percent of convention delegate support or submit sufficient petition signatures to earn a ballot position. Rep. DeGette cleared the 30 percent threshold by just eight votes in an official intra-party caucus where delegates overwhelmingly backed Kiros.

A reported Data for Progress Colorado poll showed Kiros leading next week’s 1st District race with 41 percent, followed by DeGette at 36 percent and University of Colorado Regent Wanda James at six percent. Like Chevalier in New York, Kiros is a strong anti‑Israel activist, reflecting issues increasingly becoming prominent in Democratic primaries.

Money favors Rep. DeGette, and has been bolstered by significant outside spending. However, as seen in other incumbent defeats, financial advantages have not always been enough to counteract shifting voter sentiment.

Additional signs of political turbulence for Colorado incumbents appear in the gubernatorial and Senate primaries.

Recent polling indicates a tightening race in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) faces a strong challenge from Attorney General Phil Weiser, who has mounted an unexpectedly competitive campaign effort.

A late May Colorado Community Research poll (May 22-26; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading Sen. Bennet 41-34 percent. A follow‑up Public Policy Polling survey (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) found Bennet rebounding but to only a tenuous 36-30 percent.

The Colorado Community Research poll also tested the US Senate primary and surprisingly found Sen. John Hickenlooper leading state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D‑Denver), another Democratic Socialist, by a narrow 41–34 percent margin.

Colorado is the only state holding a June 30 primary, and the key contests are shaping up to deliver another round of closely watched and potentially consequential results.

Reps. Goldman, Espaillat Lose in NY; Election Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Two more US House incumbents lost their renomination bids last night as the New York Democratic Socialists had a big night.

Maryland

In the most watched race in the state, and certainly most expensive, freshman Rep. April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac) defeated former Congressman David Trone who was attempting a political comeback after losing the 2024 Senate Democratic primary. At this writing, Rep. Delaney held a 44-38 percent lead despite Trone spending almost $30 million on his campaign. She was also leading in the district’s two most populous counties, Montgomery and Frederick.

In the open 5th District, retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Mechanicsville) endorsed candidate, state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D-Bowie) easily won the Democratic primary over 22 opponents. Gov. Wes Moore and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks also endorsed Boafo. He will now go onto record a strong general election win.

Another House challenge saw veteran incumbent Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D-Baltimore) easily defeating Baltimore City Councilman Mark Conway with 70 percent of the vote.

New York

Big losses for two incumbents again proves that dominant campaign spending does not necessarily guarantee victory. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NYC) was dealt a crushing defeat in his bid for a third term, losing to former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander by a 66-34 percent margin.

In the Harlem-anchored 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat also lost his Democratic primary. Darializa Avila Chevalier defeated Rep. Espaillat in a tight 49-46 percent result. Both Lander and Chevalier were heavily outspent (Goldman’s money ratio over Lander was 7:1; Espaillat held a 2:1 resource advantage). Both Lander and Chevalier are closely aligned with the Democratic Socialists.

Six incumbents have now lost their renomination campaigns. In addition to Reps. Goldman and Espaillat, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-KY), Al Green (D-TX), Julie Johnson (D-TX), and Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), all failed to win their respective primaries earlier in the year.

In another Democratic Socialist win, state Assemblywoman Claire Valdez easily won the open 7th District Democratic primary. She will next win the general election and succeed retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn).

In the hotly contested open 12th CD, state Assemblyman Micah Lasher won the Democratic primary, defeating state Assemblyman Alex Bores, Jack Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, and attorney George Conway.

This campaign ended in an inverse order regarding campaign expenditures. Here, Conway and Schlossberg spent the most, with the winner, Lasher, spending the least among the top contenders. Assemblyman Lasher will now win the general election without much difficulty and in January will succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-New York City).

In Bronx District 15, incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres scored a landslide 72-22 percent Democratic primary win over former state Assemblyman Michael Blake in a race that was originally believed to be competitive.

In a race where money did make a difference, Trump-endorsed businessman and ex-professional boxer Anthony Constantino easily defeated state Assemblyman Robert Smullen in the open 21st District. With a 10:1 resource advantage and the Trump endorsement, Constantino rolled to a 59-41 percent victory.

The new Republican nominee will now face dairy farmer Blake Gendebien (D) in the general election. Expect this contest to be competitive even though the 21st District is largely Republican. The winner will succeed retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) in the North Country district.

Utah

Looking at the state’s new Democratic 1st District anchored in Salt Lake City, former Congressman Ben McAdams scored a big early victory over state Sen. Nate Blouin (D-Salt Lake City). Against three opponents, McAdams, who previously served one term in the US House, recorded just over 60 percent of the vote. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to return to the House in the November election.

In new districts, Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) scored a 58 percent win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Syracuse), Celeste Maloy was an easy 3rd District Republican winner, while Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) was unopposed for renomination in the 4th District, which is entirely new territory for him when compared to the previous 3rd District to which he was elected in 2024.

South Carolina

As expected, four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale) scored a major 69-31 percent victory over Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in the Republican runoff election. Wilson now becomes the heavy favorite to win the general election in November and succeed incumbent Henry McMaster (R), who will retire as the state’s longest-serving Governor.

In the 1st District Republican runoff to replace Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who risked the seat for an unsuccessful gubernatorial run, Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt defeated state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) in a 54-46 percent result. Honeycutt also finished first in the regular primary. She now becomes the strong favorite to win the general election and hold the 1st District seat for the GOP.

Major Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Three more state primaries and one runoff are on today’s political calendar, featuring several major contests. Primary voters in Maryland, New York, and Utah will cast their final ballots for nomination, while South Carolina Republicans choose their gubernatorial and 1st District congressional nominees in runoff elections.

Maryland

Republicans will select a candidate to challenge Gov. Wes Moore (D), though the GOP winner will enter November as a severe underdog.

Several congressional races are drawing attention. All seven Maryland US House incumbents seeking re‑election face primary challengers, though five of those contests appear noncompetitive.

The marquee race is in the state’s western 6th District, where former Congressman David Trone (D), who vacated the seat in 2024 for an unsuccessful Senate bid, now seeks to reclaim it from his successor, Rep. April McClain Delaney (D‑Potomac). Trone, the billionaire founder of Total Wine & More, has spent roughly $30 million on the race, while Delaney has countered with nearly $9 million. Polling has been inconsistent, though Delaney appears to have a slight edge.

In Baltimore, City Councilman Mark Conway is challenging veteran Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D‑Baltimore), one of several races nationwide where younger Democrats are raising age and vitality concerns about long‑serving incumbents. Rep. Mfume, who is 77 years old, is again favored to prevail.

Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D‑Mechanicsville) retirement after 45 years of congressional service has triggered a crowded Democratic primary in the safely blue 5th District, with 23 candidates competing.

Establishment figures including Rep. Hoyer, Gov. Moore, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks have endorsed state Delegate Adrian Boafo (D‑Bowie), though he has been outspent by healthcare company executive Quincy Bareebe and former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn. Other notable contenders include state Sen. Arthur Ellis (D-Charles County) and former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, though neither appears to have gained enough momentum to finish first.

New York

With the gubernatorial nominations effectively settled – Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) will easily secure their primaries tonight – the focus shifts to several competitive congressional races.

Two incumbents are on the political hot seat tonight and upsets are possible.

In Brooklyn’s 7th District, four Democrats are vying to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez (D), serving her 17th term. Three elected officials: Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, and NYC Councilwoman Julie Won, are the leading contenders. New York’s plurality election system means tonight’s vote will decide the nominees regardless of percentage attained.

In the 10th District, former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander, running as the Democratic Socialist candidate with support from Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani along with their associated organizations, is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman (D). Polling shows that Rep. Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss company fortune, is significantly trailing despite outspending Lander 4:1. Lander scoring an upset victory is very possible.

The 12th District, vacated by retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D‑NYC), features eight Democrats competing for the politically safe CD. Four major contenders: attorney George Conway, Assemblymen Alex Bores and Micah Lasher, and John “Jack” Bouvier Kennedy Schlossberg, grandson of President John F. Kennedy, are locked in a competitive race. Early polling showed Bores and Lasher trading the lead, but no recent data has been released.

In the 13th District, Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D‑Harlem) faces his toughest challenge since winning his initial congressional primary in 2016. Community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier has built a strong ground operation and performed well in polling. Two June surveys showed Espaillat at 35 percent support, and one (Data for Progress, June 3-9; 319 likely NY-13 Democratic primary voters) even had Chevalier leading 39–35 percent; therefore, we see another incumbent upset possibility.

In Upstate District 17, a key November battleground, five Democrats are competing to challenge two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R‑Pearl River). Former National Security Council official Cait Conley has led in recent polling and is favored to clinch victory tonight.

Utah

Redistricting has significantly reshaped Utah’s congressional map, creating a new Salt Lake City-anchored Democratic seat. Four Democrats are competing, with former Congressman Ben McAdams and state Sen. Nate Blouin (D‑Salt Lake City) emerging as the top contenders. Early polling suggested Rep. McAdams held a significant advantage. McAdams is favored to win tonight, which will pave his return to Congress.

Despite radical changes to district boundaries, GOP Reps. Blake Moore (R‑Salt Lake City), Celeste Maloy (R‑Cedar City), and Mike Kennedy (R‑Alpine) are expected to win renomination. Rep. Kennedy is unopposed in the new 4th District despite the seat being completely different from the 3rd District he won in 2024. Rep. Burgess Owens (R‑Salt Lake City) opted to retire, thus avoiding a paired Republican primary for Reps. Maloy or Kennedy.

South Carolina

In the Republican gubernatorial runoff today, four‑term Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), is likely to score a big victory. Several polls show him holding substantial leads, and President Trump has just issued a co‑endorsement after previously backing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette. Wilson is expected to win easily this evening and claim the Governorship in November.

In the open 1st District, a close race is expected between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R‑Daniel Island), who finished first and second in the June 9 primary. The winner will be a strong favorite in November. Incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston) vacated the seat to run unsuccessfully for Governor.

Maine: Ranked Choice Voting
System Changes Outcomes

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 22, 2026

Ranked Choice Voting

Ten days after Maine’s June 9th primary, the Secretary of State’s office finally released the results of the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulations, and the post‑election redistribution altered the final outcome in two major races.

(Click on image to see example larger.)

Under Maine’s RCV system, the process activates when no candidate receives a majority of first‑choice votes. Once it is determined that the leading candidate holds only a plurality, the last‑place finisher is eliminated, and that candidate’s next available rankings are then added to the aggregate totals. This elimination‑and‑redistribution cycle continues until only two candidates remain, at which point the final round determines the official result.

Maine uses RCV only in primaries and federal elections. The state Supreme Court has ruled that the Maine Constitution recognizes plurality winners in state general elections, meaning RCV cannot be applied there. The court also held that it lacks jurisdiction over party‑run primaries and federal contests, so it cannot block RCV in those elections.

In the open Governor’s race, former state Health Director Nirav Shah led the Democratic primary in the initial count but ultimately lost in the RCV rounds. The official Democratic nominee is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D‑North Haven/Portland).

Although Pingree trailed Dr. Shah 27-23 percent in first‑choice votes, she gained steadily through second and third choice rankings. In the fourth and final round – after the field had narrowed to those two – she prevailed 56-44 percent.

Businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I‑ME), was the first candidate eliminated, and his votes were redistributed according to the voters’ alternate rankings.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows was eliminated next, and the addition of her supporters’ ranked choices pushed Pingree ahead of Shah for the first time, by an adjusted margin of 2,990 votes. After former state Senate President Troy Jackson was eliminated, the fourth round matched Pingree against Shah, producing the final outcome.
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On the Republican side, RCV did not alter the standings. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles led on election night with a 38-20-20 percent advantage over businessman Ben Midgley and attorney Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The order remained unchanged through seven RCV rounds, and Charles officially secured the nomination with a 60-40 percent final‑round margin over Midgley.

Pingree and Charles now advance to the general election, where they will also face Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committeeman, left the GOP to run as an Independent, believing he would be more competitive in a three-way race without the party designation. His presence on the ballot is expected to draw votes away from Charles, thus making Pingree a heavy favorite in November.

RCV also changed the outcome in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. On election night, state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D‑Bangor), brother of former Governor and Congressman John Baldacci, held a narrow lead. But in the second round of RCV tabulation only 546 votes separated Baldacci, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. In the third round, Dunlap overtook Baldacci and won the nomination with just over 52 percent of the adjusted vote.

Dunlap, therefore, advances to face former Gov.Paul LePage in the general election. LePage was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican‑leaning seat in the country that a Democrat currently represents: retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D‑Lewiston).

The 2026 general election is expected to be competitive. Given that LePage carried the 2nd District in all three of his gubernatorial campaigns, he enters this general election campaign as the early favorite.

Bennet’s Gubernatorial Bid In Doubt

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 19, 2026

Governor

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D)

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

When Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet (D) announced he would enter the open race for Governor back in April of 2025, most believed he would sail through the Democratic primary and into the Governor’s mansion with relatively little effort. As the June 30 primary approaches, however, the political landscape looks considerably different.

Once Sen. Bennet declared his gubernatorial candidacy, all but one of the major prospective Democratic contenders abandoned their ambitions – choosing instead to seek re‑election, pursue other statewide offices, or exit electoral politics altogether. The lone holdout was Attorney General Phil Weiser, who is term‑limited and therefore unable to seek a third term. He remained in the race as Sen. Bennet’s only significant primary opponent.

It is now clear that Weiser has become a serious threat. At least one recent survey has even shown him leading the primary. Two of the latest publicly released polls illustrate the tightening contest: Public Policy Polling (June 1-2; 505 likely Democratic primary voters; text and live interview) found Bennet ahead 36-30 percent, while Colorado Community Research (May 22-28; 796 likely Democratic primary voters) showed Weiser leading 41-34 percent.

Neither poll is encouraging for Bennet. Even in the PPP survey, where he holds a narrow lead, the fact that a four‑term US Senator (appointed in 2009 to replace Ken Salazar and subsequently elected in 2010, 2016, and 2022) is polling only in the 30s among his own party’s primary electorate as the early voting period begins is hardly a sign of political strength.

Several of Bennet’s strategic decisions, combined with an unexpectedly vigorous grassroots effort from Weiser, have contributed to the competitiveness of the race.

The Senator’s first questionable move was bypassing the state party’s nomination assembly. Colorado candidates can access the primary ballot in one of two ways: by securing at least 30 percent of the delegate vote at the state endorsing convention, or collecting the required number of petition signatures – 1,500 from registered party members in each of the state’s eight congressional districts. Candidates may pursue both paths simultaneously as a safeguard. Sen. Bennet chose to skip the assembly entirely and rely solely on petition signatures.

Weiser, by contrast, attended the assembly and surpassed the 30 percent threshold, earning his ballot line. Sen. Bennet’s decision raised eyebrows, suggesting either a lack of confidence in his ability to win over party delegates or a desire to avoid the rigors of the convention process altogether.

A second misstep came when Bennet stated that, if elected Governor, he intended to remain in the Senate long enough to choose his own successor rather than resign immediately and allow outgoing Gov. Jared Polis (D) to make the appointment. Critics quickly seized on the remark, accusing Bennet of attempting to consolidate too much power.

Meanwhile, Weiser’s campaign has been more aggressive and effective than many anticipated. In his campaign appearances around the state, he has criticized Bennet – and DC Democrats more broadly – for not applying sufficient pressure on President Trump. He contrasts this with his own record, highlighting the 65 lawsuits he has filed or enjoined against the Trump Administration.

There is little doubt that the winner of the June 30 Democratic primary will be strongly positioned to become Colorado’s next Governor, given the state’s continued leftward shift. Sen. Bennet may ultimately secure the gubernatorial nomination, but if he does, the victory will likely be viewed as far less impressive than many expected when he first announced his return to state politics in early 2025.

Moreover, federal incumbents seeking different offices in the 2026 cycle have not fared well in either party. Base party primary voters have shown frustration with Washington, rejecting several sitting members of Congress in their bids for Senate seats or gubernatorial positions. Sen. Bennet’s status as a long‑time federal officeholder may be yet another factor weighing down his current campaign.

A Polling Hodgepodge in MD-6

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 18, 2026

House

Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac)

Already we have seen four US House incumbents defeated for renomination, and the June 23 primaries suggest more may fall.

The four incumbents defeated so far include Republican Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX) and Thomas Massie (R‑KY). Two Democrats have also lost, though their defeats are largely attributable to redistricting: Texas Reps. Al Green (D‑Houston) and Julie Johnson (D‑Dallas) were both unseated in newly configured districts.

Next Tuesday, New York Reps. Dan Goldman (D-New York City), Adriano Espaillat (D-Harlem) and Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) face serious intra-party challengers, as does Maryland Congresswoman April McClain Delaney (D-Potomac).

Today, we look at the 6th District of Maryland, where billionaire former Congressman David Trone (D) is attempting a political comeback in the congressional district he held for three terms before losing the 2024 Senate primary. To return, he would have to defeat the woman who replaced him, freshman Rep. Delaney.

Polling offers no clear picture. Several surveys suggest Trone is well‑positioned, while just as many indicate he is headed for a sizable defeat. In an unusual sequence of publicly released polls, the ballot test leader has flipped in eight consecutive surveys. All were conducted by professional live interview firms that the two campaigns commissioned.

Unsurprisingly, each campaign’s polls show its own candidate ahead. The Delaney campaign’s internal surveys consistently find the Congresswoman leading by strong margins. The Trone campaign’s polls, meanwhile, show the former Congressman ahead in all four of their releases, but only by narrow spreads.

The polling firms involved, Hart Research for Delaney and Impact Research plus the Global Strategy Group for Trone, are well‑established, highly experienced, and have conducted surveys for presidential campaigns. Yet their results in this race, while internally consistent, diverge sharply from one another.

The latest pair of polls again shows opposite outcomes. Hart Research (for the Delaney campaign; June 2-4; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) places Rep. Delaney ahead 52-37 percent, a margin well beyond the survey’s error range and consistent with their March, April, and May findings.

In contrast, the Global Strategy Group (for the Trone campaign; June 8-11; 500 likely MD‑6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) shows Trone holding a slight 43-40 percent edge, also in line with previous Impact Research results.

Whatever happens on Tuesday, at least one of these veteran polling firms will have missed the race multiple times by a large margin.

Trone, the founder of the Total Wine & More beverage chain, again is spending heavily, this time an estimated $25 million of his own money. Rep. Delaney has countered with more than $8 million in campaign expenditures according to the June 3 pre-primary Federal Election Commission financial disclosure filing.

Maryland’s 6th District contains four counties in the state’s western panhandle tucked between Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and about a quarter of Montgomery County. It is the latter entity that tilts the district toward the Democrats.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the MD-6 partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.0R, making it the most competitive district in the state. In federal races, however, the district’s electorate clearly favors Democrats. MD-6 voters backed the Democratic nominee over President Trump in both recent presidential elections: Kamala Harris won 51.6 – 45.8 percent in 2024, and President Biden carried the seat 53.9 – 44.1 percent in 2020.

Former Rep. Trone averaged 57.5 percent of the vote in his three victorious elections, while Rep. Delaney scored a 53 percent win in her lone congressional contest.

In any event, it appears evident that one of these two candidates is in for a surprise on Tuesday night.

Moore, Collins Win Senate Runoffs; Hern has Solid Win in Oklahoma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 17

Runoffs were conducted in both Alabama and Georgia yesterday; Oklahoma hosted its primary election. Most of these states’ notable races now have nominees.

Alabama

The Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Last night’s winner is Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44 percent margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff last night.

Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19 by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified. Former President Trump endorsed Moore during the primary.

Georgia

Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.

Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.

For his part, though recording the victory last night, Rep. Collins lost all the Atlanta metro counties but won everywhere else in the state. If he is to unseat Sen. Ossoff, Collins must improve his performance in the region’s largest population area.

In the Governor’s race, a Trump-endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Burt Jones, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, who was endorsed by both President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19 primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.

Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington last night. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35 percent victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson.

Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).

Oklahoma

The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70 percent of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.

Democrats will choose their nominee in an Aug. 25 runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.

The Oklahoma Senate seat is open because then-incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) resigned to accept President Trump’s appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Mullin’s replacement in the Senate, businessman Alan Armstrong (R), as an interim appointment is ineligible to run for a full term under the state’s succession law.

In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32 percent in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. The Republican runoff winner will be the heavy favorite to win the general election.

In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated last night. Each exceeded the 70 percent vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination.

All four House incumbents, and the winner of the 1st District Republican runoff, will all enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.

Oklahoma Primary Preview;
Today’s CA-14 Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Oklahoma

The Sooner State holds elections today in addition to the Alabama and Georgia runoffs we covered yesterday. Should no Oklahoma candidate secure majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff election.

With then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) leaving office to become Homeland Security Secretary, we will now see an open Oklahoma US Senate campaign. Under state law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to participate in the succeeding general election. Therefore, appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) will serve only until the next Congress begins in January 2027.

The clear favorite to win the Republican nomination and then the general election is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa). All the national and state party leaders have endorsed Rep. Hern including President Trump and term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Four other Republicans are competing for the nomination, but it will be surprising if Rep. Hern fails to win outright.

The open Governor’s race, however, will very likely go to a runoff. Nine Republicans are vying for the party nomination.

The latest polling suggests a four-way contest among Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former State Budget Secretary and ex-state Sen. Mike Mazzei, and former State Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, the son of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (1995-2003); Keating was previously an Associate US Attorney General in the Reagan Administration. Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall, who led early in polling but has since dropped back, also is a candidate.

In Oklahoma’s US House races, the four remaining Republican incumbents, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman), and Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) will all win renomination tonight. Each are solid favorites to win another term in the general election.

In Rep. Hern’s open Tulsa-anchored 1st District, we see a crowded 10-person Republican primary. Three appear as strong candidates. Pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer, who President Trump and the Republican leadership support, is viewed as the leading contender. State Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) and businessman Nathan Butterfield are also competitive candidates. Two of these three advancing to a runoff election is a likelihood.

The lone Democratic candidate is Tulsa School Board member John Croisant. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the November election.

CA-14

Another of the current cycle’s special congressional elections continues today. The contest is in California’s East San Francisco Bay area Congressional District 14 from which ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after a series of scandalous behavior incidents became known, mostly involving unwanted advances individually against multiple women.

Under California special election procedure, all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation or stated preference. If a candidate attracts majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers advance to a special general election. In this case, the special general election, if necessary, is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Two weeks ago, in the regular California 2026 primary election, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) placed first in the jungle primary but with 38.3 percent of the vote within a field of nine candidates. Irrespective of how the special election concludes, Sen. Wahab will advance to the 2026 regular election against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez (17.2 percent), a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board Member and a former city of Dublin mayor.

For the special election, the winner of which will serve the balance of former Rep. Swalwell’s term, 11 candidates are on the ballot, including Sen. Wahab and Hernandez.

It would not be surprising to see a similar result to what we saw in the June 2 primary with Wahab and Hernandez finishing first and second, but far below the necessary 50 percent plateau necessary toward immediately assuming the seat.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 14th District’s partisan lean is and overwhelming 68.4D – 30.6R, meaning a Republican candidate would have virtually no chance to win an election here.

The 14th CD sits on the southeast side of the Bay sandwiched in between the cities of Oakland and San Jose. The major population centers are the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The East Bay region has been in Democratic hands consecutively since the 1974 election. Three individuals, all Democrats, represented the area during that time. They are, Reps. Norm Mineta, Fortney H. “Pete” Stark, and Swalwell.

Runoff Previews: Alabama & Georgia

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 15, 2026

Another round of voting occurs tomorrow as Alabama and Georgia hold runoff elections, while Oklahoma voters begin selecting their 2026 nominees. Today’s focus is on the runoffs; an Oklahoma primary preview follows tomorrow.

Alabama

The Alabama Republican US Senate nomination will be decided tomorrow, and it is clear that retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson has generated late campaign momentum. Emphasizing his outsider message and Christian faith, Hudson has steadily gained support and may be peaking at the right moment.

In the May 19 primary, Hudson surged to edge Attorney General Steve Marshall, the early frontrunner. Rep. Barry Moore (R Enterprise) led the initial vote with 39.2 percent, while Hudson secured the second runoff slot over Marshall with a 25.6 to 24.5 percent margin – a difference of exactly 5,300 votes.

Rep. Moore carries former President Trump’s endorsement, which has proven decisive in nearly every primary this cycle with one exception (Rep. Randy Feenstra’s loss in the Iowa gubernatorial primary). House members running in competitive primaries, however, have struggled overall. Across nine states, House incumbents seeking another office this year – or even renomination against strong challengers – have won just two of 16 contests, though three, including Moore, advanced to runoffs.

Two June polls brandish split conclusions. A Strategy Management survey (May 29-June 4; 1,300 likely GOP runoff voters; online) found Hudson ahead 42-37 percent. A co/efficient poll conducted within the same time period (June 3-4; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) showed Moore leading 46-37 percent. With turnout expected to drop when compared with the primary, the race remains highly competitive.

On the Democratic side, businessman Dakarai Larriett and attorney Everett Wess compete for the nomination. Regardless of the Democratic outcome the Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite.

Only one US House runoff appears on the Alabama ballot: the Democratic contest in the 5th District. The winner will be a heavy underdog against two term Rep. Dale Strong (R Huntsville).

Because the new redistricting map significantly altered several districts, primaries for the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th Congressional Districts will be held on Aug. 11. These will be plurality primaries with no runoffs.

Georgia

Two major statewide Republican runoffs will be decided tomorrow.

In the Governor’s race, recent polling suggests businessman Rick Jackson is pulling away from Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and is now favored to clinch the nomination. Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor who secured her party’s nomination outright on May 19, awaits. With Gov. Brian Kemp (R) term limited, the open general election is expected to be competitive in a Georgia that is now widely regarded as a swing state.

The Republican Senate runoff may be closer. The contest features Rep. Mike Collins (R Jackson) against former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, who surged late to edge Rep. Buddy Carter (R Pooler/Savannah) for the second runoff position. Early post primary polling suggested Collins held a clear advantage, but Dooley has gained momentum, setting up an intriguing finish.

The winner will challenge first term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who has raised more money than any other candidate in the country. Ossoff begins the general election as the favorite, though the race is expected to tighten.

In the US House, Democratic runoffs will occur in the open 1st and 7th Districts. In the 1st, the Democratic nominee will face insurance broker Jim Kingston – son of former 11-term Rep. Jack Kingston – who won the GOP nomination outright on May 19 and enters November as a heavy favorite. In the 7th CD, the Democratic winner will challenge two term Rep. Rich McCormick (R Suwanee), who is also strongly favored to hold his seat.

Ohio Senate Race Moves to Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 12, 2026

Senate

The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has revised its ratings in three Senate races, including the Ohio special election. North Carolina shifts from Toss‑Up to Lean Democratic, while Alaska moves from Lean Republican to Toss‑Up. Ohio was cast in the same manner as Alaska.

The Ohio special election features appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). It is one of the most consequential contests of 2026 and will play a major role in determining which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. Although the race appears competitive at this stage, the Ohio electorate continues to show signs of returning to its pre‑Obama era pattern as a reliably Republican state.

Husted was appointed to replace JD Vance, who resigned from the Senate after being elected Vice President. Before his appointment, the new Senator served two terms as Lieutenant Governor and eight years as Secretary of State.

Brown, who lost his 2024 re‑election bid after three Senate terms and 14 years in the US House, is attempting a comeback to reclaim the seat he held for 18 years. He previously served as Ohio’s Secretary of State and in the state legislature.

A recently released Fox News poll (May 28-June 1; 1,015 registered voters) likely contributed to the Center for Politics’ new rating. The survey shows Brown leading Sen. Husted 53-45 percent. The poll raises questions, however, because the same sample found the gubernatorial race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton separated by just one point – an unusually tight margin given earlier polling trends.

Three earlier surveys conducted from mid‑March through mid‑April, each from a different pollster, showed Husted leading. In total, 12 polls from eight organizations between February and early June found Husted ahead in seven instances and ex-Sen. Brown ahead in five. Viewed collectively, the Fox News poll appears to be an outlier. It is also atypical for the Senate and gubernatorial races to diverge so sharply in the same polling sample.

A key indicator of Ohio’s political trajectory comes from comparing Brown’s 2024 performance with his 2018 victory. In 2024, then-Sen. Brown received 295,026 more votes than he did in 2018, yet still lost by 3.5 points.

This suggests a shifting electorate increasingly favorable to Republicans. Such data points are important when assessing where Ohio voters may stand by Election Day 2026. Early signs indicate that 2026 is shaping up as a turnout‑driven election rather than a persuasion‑driven one, making political climate and base enthusiasm especially significant.

Fundraising will also play a major role. In 2024, Brown raised over $103 million – second only to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) – yet still fell short. For 2026, Brown ranks fifth nationally with more than $25 million raised. Sen. Husted trails with just over $10 million but is expected to have sufficient resources. Both sides will be supplemented through substantial outside spending.

If economic conditions – particularly gasoline and grocery prices – improve by early voting in October, and if the Iran conflict stabilizes, historical voting patterns will likely reassert themselves. If so, expect the Ohio Senate race to return to a Lean Republican rating and produce an eventual GOP victory.