Tag Archives: Minnesota

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

New Minnesota Poll:
An Emerging Trend?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Polling

A new co/efficient Republican poll (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota general‑election voters; live interview and text) finds a surprising result: both the Republican gubernatorial and Senatorial candidates are within a point or two of their Democratic opponents.

According to the co/efficient numbers, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) leads the gubernatorial race over state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring) by only a 47-45 percent margin. In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) holds a narrow one‑point edge over former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, 43-42 percent.

Given Minnesota’s status as the most loyal Democratic state in presidential elections, these results are eye‑opening and suggest the poll could be an outlier. In reality, however, the co/efficient numbers are not far from what other pollsters have recently reported.

A Quantus Insights survey (Sept. 8-10; 720 likely general election voters) found Lt. Gov. Flanagan ahead 48-44 percent. Just before that, TIPP Insights (Aug. 31-Sept. 2; 1,201 likely general election voters) projected an almost identical result to co/efficient: Flanagan leading 44-42 percent.

The gubernatorial race is a different story. The co/efficient survey shows the closest margin, but because Klobuchar is widely viewed as a prohibitive favorite, the contest has not been polled often. The previously mentioned TIPP survey included the governor’s question and found Klobuchar holding a 50-40 percent lead over Speaker DeMuth.

There is ample reason to view Minnesota as a solidly Democratic domain. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972. The state legislature, however, tells quite a different story. Democrats were elected to a bare 34-33 majority in the state Senate, and the parties began the current legislative session in a 67-67 tie in the state House of Representatives, leading to DeMuth’s Republican speakership.

Another notable finding from the co/efficient poll involves the “most important issue” question. In virtually every recent survey, cost of living, affordability, or the economy ranks first. In this study, however, the most frequently mentioned issue is government corruption.

This is plausible given Minnesota’s multi‑million‑dollar transfer payment scandal, in which fraudsters exploited weak bureaucratic and legislative oversight. The scandal has received extensive local and national media attention, and Tafoya has made it a centerpiece of her campaign.

Irrespective of tightening poll numbers, it remains difficult to envision Klobuchar losing the open governorship, though the final weeks of the campaign may prove more challenging than she anticipated when initially launching her 2026 bid.

The Senate race, on the other hand, is becoming a legitimately competitive open seat contest. Tafoya is well known in the state through her years of covering Minnesota sports before moving to the national arena, and she posts a stronger favorability rating than Lt. Gov. Flanagan. According to the co/efficient poll, Tafoya’s positive‑to‑negative ratio is 36:32, while Flanagan is significantly underwater at 33:42.

Minnesota voters have experienced substantial upheaval in recent years – from George Floyd’s death in 2020, to ICE‑related demonstrations and fatalities, to the major government fraud scandal – leaving the electorate unsettled. Reactions to these events differ sharply between rural Minnesota and the Twin Cities, helping explain why the 2026 statewide campaigns may be closer than usual.

While Democrats see emerging opportunities in traditionally Republican states such as Nebraska and Kansas, Republican Senate candidates are making clear inroads in Democratic strongholds like Minnesota and New Hampshire.

Therefore, as November approaches, it is possible that we will witness unique and surprising electoral outcomes once ballot counting begins on election night.

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

Graham to Runoff; Flanagan Wins; Rep. Larson Loses in Connecticut

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Connecticut delivered the biggest surprise of another active primary night. Rep. John Larson (D‑Hartford), seeking a 15th term, lost his renomination bid by 20 percentage points to former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. Bronin will have little trouble holding the seat in November. Rep. Larson becomes the 10th US House incumbent to lose renomination this year and the seventh Democrat.

In Wisconsin, state Rep. Francesca Hong (D‑Madison) entered the gubernatorial primary as an average 20‑point favorite, but in a surprisingly close finish she appears to have narrowly lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously suspended his campaign.

For the second consecutive week, the polling community badly missed a race involving a Democratic Socialist candidate. In both the Wisconsin Governor and Michigan Senate contests, multiple pollsters projected major victories for Democratic Socialist contenders, and in each case the predictions proved wrong. Hong fell short, and Michigan’s Abdul El‑Sayed edged his principal Democratic opponent by just one percentage point despite averaging a 15‑point lead.

In South Carolina’s high‑profile Senate primary, appointed Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) advanced to an Aug. 25 Republican runoff election. Graham recorded only 33 percent of the vote, meaning 67 percent of the roughly 335,000 GOP primary voters chose another candidate.

Rep. Norman, who lost the Governor’s race in June, finished second with 25 percent. Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach) placed third at 20 percent but remains on the November ballot as the Republican nominee in his 7th Congressional District.

Minnesota also featured a major campaign contest. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, aligned with the Democratic Socialists, defeated Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake) by a 59-40 percent margin. Flanagan advances to face former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya, who easily won the Republican primary. Some believe this race is a Republican sleeper for November.

In other races …

Alabama

Three significant post‑redistricting primaries were held yesterday. Former Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost his 2024 Republican primary after being redistricted into an incumbent pairing with Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise), appears poised to return to Congress. Under the 2026 map, which restores the Mobile metropolitan area as the 1st District’s major population anchor, Carl scored a commanding 75 percent victory in the Republican primary.

In the new 2nd District, state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) won a convincing Republican primary as expected. He advances to face Rep. Shomari Figures (D‑Mobile) in a southeastern Alabama district that now favors the GOP. The AL‑2 contest is a major Republican conversion target on the national House map.

In the Birmingham area, Rep. Gary Palmer (R‑Hoover/Shelby County) was easily renominated and is well positioned for another term in November. In the neighboring 7th District, educator Ammie Akin captured the Republican nomination but will be a heavy underdog against Rep. Terri Sewell (D‑Birmingham) in the state’s lone Democratic seat.

Connecticut

In the Constitution State’s other notable race, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) easily secured renomination for a third term, defeating state Rep. Josh Elliott (D‑Guilford) with 68 percent of the vote. Gov. Lamont will be a prohibitive favorite in the fall campaign against state Sen. Ryan Fazio (D‑Greenwich).

Minnesota

In addition to Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya winning the Democratic and Republican Senate nominations, Sen. Amy Klobuchar scored a dominant 90 percent victory in the open Democratic gubernatorial primary. She will face state House Speaker Lisa DeMuth (R‑Cold Spring), who defeated My Pillow founder Mike Lindell in the GOP primary. Sen. Klobuchar enters the general election as the clear favorite to succeed outgoing Gov. Tim Walz (D).

In the open 2nd Congressional District, state Sen. Matt Little (D‑Lakeville) easily won the Democratic primary. State Sen. Eric Pratt (R‑Prior Lake), unopposed for the Republican nomination, will meet Little in what is expected to be a competitive race to replace Rep. Angie Craig.

Vermont

Economist Amanda Janoo slipped past University of Vermont Medical Center Board chair Aly Richards to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Janoo will now challenge Gov. Phil Scott who was unopposed for a sixth term on the Republican side. Despite Vermont’s strong Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott is once again favored for re-election.

Wisconsin

In addition to Crowley winning the right to challenge Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua) in the open gubernatorial general election, several congressional primaries were decided.

In the politically marginal 3rd District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R‑Prairie du Chien) will again face businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) in a rematch of their 51-49 percent contest from 2024. This will be one of the cycle’s top national House campaigns.

In a crowded 1st District Democratic primary, nurse Mitchell Berman prevailed with 40 percent of the vote. Berman advances to the general election as a decided underdog to four‑term Rep. Bryan Steil (R‑Janesville).

In the open 7th District, podcast producer Michael Alfonso – son‑in‑law of US Transportation Secretary and former 7th District Congressman Sean Duffy, and backed by President Trump – won the Republican primary against four opponents. He now becomes a heavy favorite to defeat new Democratic nominee Fred Clark, a former state Representative.

Primary Preview:
Minnesota, South Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Voters in six states cast their final ballots today, and the two premier contests, the Minnesota and South Carolina Senate campaigns, are reviewed in this update. Yesterday, we covered the three congressional races in Alabama along with the regular primaries taking place in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Minnesota

With Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) a lock to win the Democratic gubernatorial nomination tonight – and then the general election in November – the political focus shifts to the open US Senate race. Incumbent Sen. Tina Smith (D) is retiring, leaving the Democratic nomination to be decided between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D Prior Lake).

Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate and has consolidated substantial individual and institutional support. Her endorsements include Sens. Smith, Bernie Sanders (I VT), and Elizabeth Warren (D MA), along with Gov. Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D MN). Former Sen. Al Franken has also publicly backed her.

The Lieutenant Governor secured the official Minnesota Democratic Farmer Labor Party endorsement at the state convention, where she was so dominant among delegates that Rep. Craig did not participate.

In Minnesota politics, an official party endorsement often leads remaining opponents to exit the race. Such is not the case here. Rep. Craig, who holds a fundraising advantage, always intended to force a primary regardless of the convention outcome. Her most prominent Minnesota endorsement comes from Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, while her broader support base includes key labor unions and elected officials from other states.

Polling in the Democratic primary has been inconsistent. Seven surveys released since late May show a split picture: three with Flanagan leading, three with Craig ahead, and one tied. The race enters today’s vote as a genuine toss up, and a close result is expected.

On the Republican side, former national sports reporter Michele Tafoya holds a solid polling advantage and is expected to win comfortably tonight despite not receiving the official GOP endorsement. Tafoya, who grew up in Minnesota and built her broadcasting career in the state before moving to ESPN and NBC Sports, benefits from strong name recognition while developing a centrist public image.

National coverage of the potential general election has been limited, but Minnesota could emerge as a sleeper contest for Republicans. Early general election polling, though none has been released since late May, shows the prospective nominees within single digits. Should Tafoya remain competitive, national Republican groups will likely invest heavily late in the campaign.

In the congressional races, the Democratic primary for Rep. Craig’s open 2nd District is expected to be close. Two Democratic state Senators, one state Representative, a teacher, and a biochemist are competing for the nomination, with the winner holding an early edge heading into the fall. Republicans have unified behind state Sen. Eric Pratt (R Prior Lake), who is unopposed tonight.

Rep. Omar faces four Democratic challengers, but none have mounted a major campaign. She is expected to easily secure renomination.

South Carolina

Today is also the day that Palmetto State Republicans will begin the formal process of replacing the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot.

Three major candidates are competing for what will prove to be two runoff slots. They are: appointed Sen. Darline Graham, the late Senator’s sister, and Reps. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) and Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Also on the ballot are former Governor and ex-Congressman Mark Sanford and businessman Mark Lynch, who attracted 29 percent of the vote against Sen. Graham in the 2026 Republican primary.

Polling is close, and all plausible scenarios point to Graham, Norman, and Fry advancing in various combinations. The runoff will be held quickly, a two week campaign concluding on Aug. 25. The winner will replace Lindsey Graham on the November ballot and face the Democratic nominee, physician and former congressional candidate Annie Andrews.

The fact that Darline Graham is not approaching the 50 percent threshold suggests she may struggle in a head-to-head runoff against either Congressman. Tonight’s vote will provide a clearer picture of how the race is likely to unfold.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

The Unmentioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 24, 2026

Senate

In every election cycle, a previously overlooked Senate race surprises the political world by becoming highly competitive. In 2024, such a campaign occurred in Nebraska where Independent Dan Osborn became a major challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R).

While the Osborn campaign fizzled in the end and Sen. Fischer was re-elected with a six-point margin, the Independent, with Democratic Party support, managed to turn a race that appeared unopposed into a top challenger effort.

Right now, it appears there are three under-the-radar Senate races that could develop, two of which are in the primary cycle.

In Massachusetts, six-term Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the state’s Sept. 1 Democratic primary. While originally thought that Rep. Moulton was making a strange move — considering Sen. Markey had in 2020 defeated a member of the Kennedy family (then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III) in the latter’s home state, within their own party, and posted a full 10 percentage point margin — another primary challenge seemed a fool’s errand.

Yet, new polling and fundraising data suggests that the Congressman may become a serious challenger. He is one of more than a dozen Democratic younger office holders or activists challenging an elderly incumbent (Sen. Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the election), and willing to make age a campaign issue.

According to the new Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Moulton surprisingly outraised the incumbent, $1.051 million to $811,000 during Q1 2026. For the campaign, Moulton also leads Markey in cash-on-hand, $3.3 million to $2.5 million.

Polling, while still favoring the incumbent, suggests the race could close. According to the recently released Suffolk University poll (April 9-13; 500 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters; live interview) Sen. Markey holds a 47-30 percent lead. While he clearly posts an advantage beyond the polling margin of error, producing a ballot test where an incumbent is under 50 percent within his own party certainly suggests underlying vulnerability.

The Massachusetts primary campaign still has a long cycle, but the early development suggests we will see some meaningful action.

If there is a developing Republican sleeper Senate race, it may be in Minnesota. The GOP has a media savvy candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who for more than a decade was the sideline reporter for NBC Sunday Night Football. Prior to joining NBC Sports, she was a game reporter for ESPN. Originally from Minnesota, Tafoya began her broadcasting career in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, so she has been a well-known figure in the state for decades.

After announcing her candidacy in late January, Tafoya has raised over $2 million for her Senate campaign. She is already the consensus Republican candidate and the two top Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), are likely headed for a contentious primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 11.

The Flanagan-Craig race is likely to reach a boiling point at the Democratic endorsing convention. Flanagan is favored to win the endorsement, and typically Minnesota candidates do not force a primary after the state party delegates choose their candidate. In this race, however, it is likely that we will see a Democratic primary no matter who wins the official party endorsement. Therefore, the hotly contested primary will allow Tafoya to prepare for the general election and pool her expanding money through the beginning of August.

Only one poll of potential general election pairings has been released and that came in February, soon after Tafoya’s formal announcement. Emerson College publicized their survey (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Tafoya trailing Lt. Gov. Flanagan and Rep. Craig by seven and six points, respectively, with neither Democrat reaching 50 percent support.

With great unrest in the state considering the ICE controversy and the Minnesota federal grant fraud investigation that will become a top issue in November, and with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) running for Governor in what will be a quiet race since the Republicans have little chance, the seeds may be sown for a legitimate general election campaign despite the state’s reliable Democratic voting history.

Six years ago, South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham faced a major challenge and saw approximately $145 million spent against him, but he still recorded a 10-percentage point general election victory.

This year, his fight is likely in the Republican primary where businessman Mark Lynch has already put more than $5 million of his own money into the campaign. It is unlikely that this race will develop, but Sen. Graham is taking Lynch seriously. He has already banked $11.6 million for the campaign and is actively advertising throughout the state.

Sen. Graham has issues on his political right, because he has never been a favorite of the MAGA base vote even though he has become an ardent President Trump supporter. Therefore, this is another stealth Senate contest that likely deserves attention in the closing weeks of the primary campaign.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

New Minnesota Data Not So Lopsided

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 17, 2026

ICE & Minnesota

A new Emerson College political survey suggests that the adverse publicity from the ICE controversy in Minneapolis may not be favoring Democrats to the degree one might have anticipated considering the intense media coverage surrounding the issue.

The Emerson College poll (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) actually finds that a plurality of the Minnesota poll respondents do not support abolishing ICE (42 percent in favor; 46 percent opposing), and recently recruited US Senate candidate Michele Tafoya (R), a former national sportscaster, trails in a general election ballot test by only six percentage points.

Tafoya fares basically the same when individually paired with both Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake): 47-41 percent against Flanagan, and 47-40 percent opposite Craig.

Not surprisingly, as he is nationally, President Trump’s approval rating is upside-down, largely due to the ICE situation and negative perceptions about the economy. His Minnesota favorability index is 39.1 – 56.3 favorable to unfavorable.

Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) approval is also in negative territory (41.4 – 47.0 percent), and that is largely because of the public assistance program fraud scandal, a story that has temporarily disappeared because of the ICE coverage, but one that will certainly return during the campaign.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is running for Governor, is positively regarded but not overwhelmingly so with a 48.1 – 40.7 percent favorability index. While Tafoya is already running relatively close to her potential Democratic opponents in the Senate race, Sen. Klobuchar posts positive ballot test results of more than 50 percent against two potential Republican opponents, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (51.1 – 37.7 percent), and My Pillow company owner and spokesman Mike Lindell (52.8 – 30.9 percent).

Though Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in presidential campaigns – the last Republican national nominee to carry the domain was Richard Nixon in 1972 – the partisan divide is not in landslide proportions. In fact, through President Trump’s three campaigns, the combined Democratic nominees, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris, averaged 49.9 percent of the vote. For his part, Trump recorded an average support figure of 45.6 percent over the same three elections.

While the Democrats control all of the statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the congressional delegation is split evenly at 4D – 4R. In the legislature, Democrats have only a one seat majority in the state Senate, and the state House of Representatives is tied between the parties.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a statewide partisan lean for Minnesota of 51.3D – 43.2R, but the Republican lean number still surpasses the Democratic figure in four of the eight congressional districts.

Another indication that the state could become more competitive than recent statewide election results suggest is the responses to the ICE and immigration questions on the Emerson College poll.

While the respondents certainly believe that the ICE presence in communities has been more harmful (60.2 percent) than beneficial (36.2 percent), a plurality of the survey participants (42.3 percent) would not only oppose disbanding ICE, but they also favor the Trump Administration’s immigration policies to that of the Biden Administration (35.0 percent).

The Republican leadership recruiting Tafoya, a well-known sports broadcasting figure in Minnesota throughout her entire career, appears as a strong move.

With the Democrats making offensive moves in the North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska Senate races, Republicans need to expand their conversion opportunities beyond Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia. A competitive run from Tafoya in Minnesota could significantly boost their already strong chances of holding the Senate majority.

The Democrats would have to win four of their five top conversion opportunities to secure a bare Senate majority. They are attempting to expand their target list by adding Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas to improve their chances. Conversely, Republicans even taking one Democratic seat away would more than likely seal their majority for another two years.

The initial Emerson College Minnesota poll suggests the state could soon ascend the national Republican Senate target list and become a race to watch.

Klobuchar Announces for Governor

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar

As expected, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar has now officially entered the open Minnesota gubernatorial campaign with her announcement late last week.

Previously, she filed a gubernatorial campaign committee as a prelude to her formal declaration. Just re-elected to the Senate in 2024, Klobuchar does not have to risk her Senate seat to run for Governor.

It appears the four-term Senator and former Hennepin County Attorney is a lock for the Democratic nomination and will likely become the official party nominee at the state Democratic endorsing convention to be scheduled well before Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election. She will also be favored in the general election, but it remains to be seen what type of effort the Republicans will launch now that the race has drastically changed since incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) surprisingly ended his quest for a third term.

In all likelihood, Sen. Klobuchar will win the Governor’s race and then appoint her own successor to the US Senate. If this happens, the appointed Senator will have the opportunity of running to fill the balance of the term in 2028 and would be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Klobuchar is the fourth Senator this year running for Governor in their respective state. Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have also launched gubernatorial campaigns.

Tuberville is the only in-cycle Senator, however, as he risks his seat to run for Governor. His move looks to pay political dividends. Candidate filing has closed in Alabama, and he faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Only insurance agent Ken McFeeters and civic center manager Will Santivasci are competing against him for the party nomination in the May 19 primary.

After being nominated, Sen. Tuberville is likely to square off against former US Sen. Doug Jones who is in equally strong position to win the Democratic nomination. The general election will be a rematch of the 2020 Senate race, a campaign that Tuberville won easily, 60.1 – 39.7 percent.

The Senate election to replace Tuberville will likely be decided in the Republican nomination process. The principal contenders are Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, and former Trump White House aide Morgan Murphy. Early polling favors AG Marshall, but President Trump has now endorsed Rep. Moore.

The Colorado race has produced at least one surprise. It appears that Sen. Bennet will have a fight on his hands in the Democratic primary against term-limited Attorney General Phil Weiser. According to the latest state financial disclosure report, AG Weiser has raised more in the way of campaign funds than Sen. Bennet. The numbers find Weiser accumulating $4.6 million in 2025 versus $3.5 million for his major opponent. Weiser also reported a $3.4 to $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage.

There has only been one published poll of the Democratic race, which was released last June from the Global Strategy Group, a well-known Democratic professional polling firm. The ballot test found Sen. Bennet opening with a healthy 53-22 percent lead.

The winner of the state’s June 30 primary election will become a prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).

The Tennessee gubernatorial campaign is also likely to be decided in the party primary, but this time on the Republican side. Sen. Blackburn’s principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Blackburn is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination and the general election.

Sen. Blackburn has dominated the early polls. The most recent release came in late October from Targoz Market Research and projected Sen. Blackburn with a 58-9 percent landslide advantage over Rep. Rose. Large margins have also been present in the three other publicly released polls earlier in the year.

Assuming all four Senators win their race, three of them will likely choose their own successor unless the outgoing Governor makes the Senate appointment as he is leaving office.

Rumors suggest that in two of the three cases the outgoing Governor, himself, Polis in Colorado and Walz in Minnesota, could become the appointed Senator. Therefore, the four Senators running for Governor will also produce post-election political drama just as 2027 begins.