Tag Archives: Maine

Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

The New England Storm

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 25, 2026

Weather Report

Recent weather reports have suggested a Nor’easter is forming off the New England coast, but a political Nor’easter could already be sweeping through the region.

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center yesterday released the latest installment of its regular New England polling series, and the results show a pronounced shift toward Democratic candidates across the six states. In most of the New England states this is not unusual, but in the competitive contests, of which there are several, the new numbers reveal a clear lurch to the left.

The likely reason for the political change is the huge surge in diesel fuel charges which has pushed home heating oil prices above $6 per gallon. The current prices represent a devastating 81 percent increase since just last year.

UNH conducted separate online polls in each New England state from Sept. 17-21, with sample sizes ranging from 540 likely voters in Connecticut to 1,418 in New Hampshire. In every tested race, the Democratic candidate’s share increased from the prior survey.

The most striking result comes from Vermont (835 likely voters), where five‑term Governor Phil Scott (R) now trails economist Amanda Janoo (D) 49-43 percent. Gov. Scott has averaged 64.2 percent across his five elections, including 71 percent in each of the last three. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states where Governors serve two‑year terms.

Through Sept. 11, recent polling had shown Rep. Chris Pappas (D‑Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) deadlocked in the race for New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat. The new UNH Granite State Poll (1,418 likely voters) finds Pappas re‑establishing a substantial lead, 50-42 percent.

Even Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who had been posting double‑digit advantages, now sees her margin narrow to 47-43 percent over former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington (D).

Turning to the always competitive NH-1 congressional district, open this year because Rep. Pappas is running for the Senate, we see Democratic nominee Stefany Shaheen, daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), leading businessman Anthony DiLorenzo by a 46-42 percent clip among the tested 711 likely voters.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R), who had led in the two previous polls over former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), now trails 51-47 percent in the UNH survey (1,312 likely voters).

In the state’s open northern 2nd Congressional District, Democrat Matt Dunlap has surged ahead. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R), who had been running even or ahead since the June primary, now falls behind 45-51 percent among 627 likely voters.

In Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, all strongly Democratic states, the incumbents seeking re‑election continue to post the robust numbers expected of them.

While polling in other parts of the country shows tighter margins and Republicans performing substantially better, energy prices stand out as the singular factor driving New England voters away from President Trump’s agenda. Energy prices in the six New England states, at least in the short term are far from what was promised.

In a cold weather region where families often consume hundreds of gallons of heating oil each winter, the dramatic price spike is economically devastating. How Republicans, who are on defense over this issue, craft a successful counter‑message remains to be seen.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

A Bit More Senate Clarity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 14, 2026

The South Carolina Republicans and Maine Democrats have made decisions about plans for replacing their respective US Senate nominees, bringing greater logistical clarity to both states’ 2026 US Senate political landscapes.

South Carolina

Darline Graham Nordone

Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death has thrown the South Carolina Republican Party into turmoil, and party leaders have now opted to hold an irregular, expedited primary to select a new US Senate nominee. Candidate filing will close on July 28 for a statewide Aug. 11 primary, followed by an Aug. 25 runoff if no contender wins a majority. The eventual Republican nominee will face pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary on June 9.

The party is working with the Department of War to satisfy the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires adequate notice and ballot access for covered voters. Meeting these requirements under such a compressed timeline remains a major challenge.

In the interim, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has appointed the late Sen. Graham’s sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to fill the vacancy. She will serve until Jan. 3, 2027, unless she chooses to enter the special primary. Nordone has not announced her intentions, but she is not expected to run.

Most early interest in the Republican nomination is coming from the US House delegation, which creates additional logistical complications for both the state party and House GOP leadership. Reps. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill) and Nancy Mace (R‑Charleston), both of whom ran for Governor – Norman finishing a close third and Mace placing a distant fifth – are unencumbered because they are not seeking House re-election.

Other members expressing varying degrees of interest include Reps. Joe Wilson (R‑Springdale), William Timmons (R‑Greenville), and Russell Fry (R‑Murrells Inlet/Myrtle Beach), with Fry appearing the most serious about entering the race.

Each of these three, however, faces a significant hurdle: they are already the official Republican nominees in their respective House districts. Because a candidate cannot seek two federal offices in the same election, entering the Senate primary would require withdrawing their congressional nominations.

While the Republican primary is a stand-alone vote, the regular general election, where Sen. Graham’s successor will ultimately be chosen, would feature both the US Senate and congressional contests.

Thus, should one or all of the aforementioned three House members enter the Senate special – win or lose – they would have to resign as the congressional district party nominee. This would lead to the district Republican Party apparatus also having to choose new nominees in the affected districts.

More developments are expected in the coming days as the party works to stabilize its nomination process and navigate the legal and logistical challenges because of Sen. Graham’s passing.

Maine

The Maine Democratic Party has scheduled a snap convention in Bangor on July 25 to select a replacement for withdrawn US Senate nominee Graham Platner. After delivering a video address late last week, Platner formally submitted his withdrawal papers to the Maine Secretary of State.

The convention will consist of 601 voting delegates: the 101 members of the Democratic State Committee and 500 county‑based delegates apportioned according to the raw vote totals Kamala Harris received in 2024. Because Harris performed strongest in southern Maine, the delegate pool will be heavily weighted toward that region, even though the in‑person convention is being held in Bangor. The northern location may simply reflect the challenge of securing a large venue on short notice.

In order to receive convention delegate votes, each individual must obtain 500 petition signatures from registered Democratic voters, with at least 50 coming from eight different counties. All signatures must be collected and returned to the proper election authorities by July 21.

This is a more difficult task than the seemingly small numbers indicate because the time frame is so short. Therefore, it is unclear exactly how many prospective candidates will qualify for the convention.

Under the party’s announced rules, once the candidate field is finalized, the five contenders receiving the most votes on the first ballot will advance to subsequent rounds. Voting will continue until one candidate secures a majority of the 601 delegates, assuming full attendance.

Several individuals have already begun positioning themselves for the nomination. Three losing gubernatorial candidates – former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, who finished first in the initial vote but lost under Ranked Choice Voting; former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who placed third; and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, who finished fourth – are taking steps toward entering the race. Former congressional aide Jordan Wood, who placed a close third in the initial 2nd District primary vote, and fourth‑place finisher Paige Loud have also expressed interest.

Platner Withdraws

Graham Platner, Democratic nominee for Maine’s US Senate seat, announces he is withdrawing from the race.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Senate

After issuing yesterday an 11-minute video to announce that he is withdrawing from the Maine US Senate race, Democratic nominee Graham Platner is under increased criticism for refusing to take individual responsibility for his once promising campaign crashing and burning.

Instead, Platner spent most of his video time blaming “they,” who he says made it impossible for him to continue his campaign. The reference is apparently directed toward the Democratic leaders who stated they would not spend national or state party money to help him if he remained in the race.

In the video, Platner categorically denied the “serious accusations” – presumably referring to Jenny Racicot’s statements alleging that he raped her earlier this decade – saying that “the things that have been claimed did not happen … it is not real.” Platner then went on to blame much “larger world forces” that are targeting him and rebuffed the accusations as “not remotely true.”

Platner further said, “it is not the false allegations that have brought us to where we are, it is the fact that they are being used by the political establishment to put structural pressure on us…those in power are using these allegations as an excuse to take away all of the things we need to run a campaign…on the basic level simply to function.”

He went on to say that “we went toe to toe with one of the most entrenched political systems in the history of the world and we won.” Is he referring to the Democratic National Committee? To the Maine Democratic Party? Now, Platner says, “those in power” are taking away his ability to continue, which is why he is suspending the campaign.

If the allegations are false as Platner says, then why leave the race? He claims he has no ability to continue the campaign because he will be cut off from funding, but with the amount of free earned media he draws and the “movement” of people behind him, it seems possible that he could traverse this rocky period.

If so, the money would return because the national Democrats need this seat if they are to have any chance of flipping the Senate majority and would certainly find a way to fund the effort. With last week’s US Supreme Court decision making party communication and candidate coordination much freer, the national and state Democratic party structure could move quickly with less legal impediments toward supporting a rebounding campaign.

It will now be interesting to see if Platner will face any legal consequences involving the rape accusations, and whether more women will come forward. In his video, Platner basically calls Racicot a liar. His action could encourage her to continue to further speak out and put pressure on the local authorities to investigate the situation as the crime that she claims his action to be.

In the immediate term, however, the Maine Democratic Party leaders must now decide upon a system to choose a new nominee without any direction from state law. They are apparently looking toward calling a snap convention to choose a nominee, hoping to attract as many as 500 delegates from the various counties and localities.

Their principal problem, however, is the clock. They have only until July 27, at the latest, to replace Platner assuming he turns in his withdrawal paperwork at the Monday, July 13 deadline. Logistically, this will require a major effort replete with criticism no matter how they proceed.

For his part, Platner says that he is not demanding any specific person be chosen as his replacement, rather, that the process be “open, transparent, and democratic.”

In that regard, another solution would be to have Gov. Janet Mills (D) call a special legislative session to institute a special Ranked Choice primary election for a point in August or even early September, just as the other New England states all have (Connecticut and Vermont: Aug 11; Massachusetts: Sept 1; New Hampshire: Sept 8; Rhode Island: Sept 9).

With Democrats holding the Governorship and majorities in both houses of the legislature, it seems this option would be the most open and transparent, while giving the people the opportunity of choosing the replacement nominee.

During this period of Democratic indecision, Maine voters can expect to see a wave of positive ads coming from Sen. Susan Collins’ campaign.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Platner Under Pressure

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner’s video response to yesterday’s rape allegations.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 7 2026

US Senate

Maine Democratic Senate nominee Graham Platner is now under extreme pressure to end his campaign and do so before July 13 so the Maine Democratic Party can choose a replacement. If Platner does leave the race, the party must replace him by July 27. Therefore, Platner’s decision and the party working to replace him must happen quickly.

A parade of Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and many other congressional and left-of-center organization leaders are now calling for Platner to withdraw from the race.

After a series of past behavioral issues involving women, claiming a fellow soldier should have died on the battlefield for disobeying military procedure even though the soldier was drawing enemy fire onto himself in order to save others, and claiming he is an oyster farmer when he only has one customer, his mother’s restaurant, the latest accusation may be the final blow.

Yesterday, Maine resident Jenny Rocicot said, according to CBS News, that “[Platner] violated multiple layers of consent that night. By coming into my home when I asked him not to, and by advancing on me when I told him not to, and furthermore, another incident that I had told him not to do.” She further said that Platner “raped her by definition.”

Platner responded by saying the allegation is “categorically false.” He further said, “regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful of the political reality it will inflict, we are taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to, and the goal of defeating [Senator] Susan Collins. Those were the goals when we launched this campaign, and they remain my goals today,” Platner recited in a publicly released video message.

Reports are also surfacing indicating that Platner will leave the race by the end of the week. The candidate, however, has not yet confirmed that he will do so.

If he does suspend his campaign, the Maine Democratic Party will have to navigate uncharted waters. Maine election law gives no direction as to how a party must replace a withdrawn candidate, only that it must do so by the second Monday after the contender’s official resignation of candidacy statement, in this case July 27.

Therefore, the Maine Democratic leadership has no procedural guidelines. They are reportedly considering developing a type of caucus vote, or possibly a snap state convention. Another report says the state party leaders have already rejected giving the power to choose the replacement nominee to the 100-member Maine State Democratic Committee.

The Caucus idea seems fraught with peril. Initial challenges could arise since they would be unlikely to adhere to Maine’s deadlines for a candidate filing period and not giving potential candidates time to gather ballot access petition signatures.

Furthermore, any type of election would be subject to Ranked Choice Voting, which would take effect if no candidate reached 50 percent in an election. The RCV period would consume too much time after the vote to fall within the candidate replacement time parameters that state law sets.

Thus, aside from having the state chairman and/or state executive committee naming the replacement nominee, the most viable option would likely be hosting a snap convention. With only two weeks to prepare, however, logistics such as where to hold the heavily attended event and who would be allowed to participate could derail any type of major gathering.

In short, because there are no legal guidelines regarding replacing a nominated candidate, virtually any decision the state party leaders make will be open to question and perhaps legal challenges.

Additionally, if the party does find a way to replace Platner by the 27th, we can expect the Susan Collins campaign to attack their disregard of democracy. Protecting democracy is a major Democratic talking point, and the party would be vulnerable to an attack that highlights the hypocrisy of their rhetoric.

The Collins campaign, for example, could point to the national Democratic Party jettisoning President Biden from the 2024 national ticket after 14-plus million people had voted for him in party primaries and caucuses, and now the Maine Democratic Party is disregarding the votes of 156,084 Maine Democrats who awarded Platner 72.1 percent of the primary vote on June 9.

If so, the argument would be that both men were forced from their nominated position once it became evident that neither could win their respective general election thus making the people’s votes dispensable.

Regardless of what happens, the Maine situation will develop very quickly and promises to be a major political story for the next several weeks.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Maine: Ranked Choice Voting
System Changes Outcomes

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 22, 2026

Ranked Choice Voting

Ten days after Maine’s June 9th primary, the Secretary of State’s office finally released the results of the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulations, and the post‑election redistribution altered the final outcome in two major races.

(Click on image to see example larger.)

Under Maine’s RCV system, the process activates when no candidate receives a majority of first‑choice votes. Once it is determined that the leading candidate holds only a plurality, the last‑place finisher is eliminated, and that candidate’s next available rankings are then added to the aggregate totals. This elimination‑and‑redistribution cycle continues until only two candidates remain, at which point the final round determines the official result.

Maine uses RCV only in primaries and federal elections. The state Supreme Court has ruled that the Maine Constitution recognizes plurality winners in state general elections, meaning RCV cannot be applied there. The court also held that it lacks jurisdiction over party‑run primaries and federal contests, so it cannot block RCV in those elections.

In the open Governor’s race, former state Health Director Nirav Shah led the Democratic primary in the initial count but ultimately lost in the RCV rounds. The official Democratic nominee is former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D‑North Haven/Portland).

Although Pingree trailed Dr. Shah 27-23 percent in first‑choice votes, she gained steadily through second and third choice rankings. In the fourth and final round – after the field had narrowed to those two – she prevailed 56-44 percent.

Businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I‑ME), was the first candidate eliminated, and his votes were redistributed according to the voters’ alternate rankings.

Secretary of State Shenna Bellows was eliminated next, and the addition of her supporters’ ranked choices pushed Pingree ahead of Shah for the first time, by an adjusted margin of 2,990 votes. After former state Senate President Troy Jackson was eliminated, the fourth round matched Pingree against Shah, producing the final outcome.
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On the Republican side, RCV did not alter the standings. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles led on election night with a 38-20-20 percent advantage over businessman Ben Midgley and attorney Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

The order remained unchanged through seven RCV rounds, and Charles officially secured the nomination with a 60-40 percent final‑round margin over Midgley.

Pingree and Charles now advance to the general election, where they will also face Independent state Sen. Rick Bennett of Oxford.

Bennett, a former Maine Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committeeman, left the GOP to run as an Independent, believing he would be more competitive in a three-way race without the party designation. His presence on the ballot is expected to draw votes away from Charles, thus making Pingree a heavy favorite in November.

RCV also changed the outcome in the Democratic primary for the 2nd Congressional District. On election night, state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D‑Bangor), brother of former Governor and Congressman John Baldacci, held a narrow lead. But in the second round of RCV tabulation only 546 votes separated Baldacci, State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. In the third round, Dunlap overtook Baldacci and won the nomination with just over 52 percent of the adjusted vote.

Dunlap, therefore, advances to face former Gov.Paul LePage in the general election. LePage was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Maine’s 2nd District is the most Republican‑leaning seat in the country that a Democrat currently represents: retiring Rep. Jared Golden (D‑Lewiston).

The 2026 general election is expected to be competitive. Given that LePage carried the 2nd District in all three of his gubernatorial campaigns, he enters this general election campaign as the early favorite.

Yesterday’s Primary Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Primaries

Voters finalized, or nearly finalized, their nomination votes yesterday in four states, and the generally expected results were produced though some featured close endings.

While the South Carolina Republican Governor’s campaign was thought to be headed toward a razor-thin vote margin among five candidates, instead the race ended with two clear runoff participants. In Maine, where one individual posted clear leads in polls during the length of the campaign, saw a very close five-way contest advancing to Ranked Choice Voting rounds.

Maine

In the Senate race against no active primary opposition, controversial oyster farmer Graham Platner won the Democratic primary with approximately 72 percent of the vote. Gov. Janet Mills, who suspended her Senate campaign when it became obvious that she could not overtake Platner, recorded approximately 20 percent of the vote.

Sen. Susan Collins was unopposed for renomination on the Republican side. The Collins-Platner general election will be another tough campaign, but a much different one than she faced in 2020. In that election, Sen. Collins’ opponent was a seasoned politician in then-state House Speaker Sara Gideon.

This time, it is an opponent portraying himself as a local working man but as more becomes known about him, many of his previous statements lead to questions about his veracity. Count on hearing a great deal about the Maine Senate race in the general election.

The Democratic Governor’s campaign will take some time to unfold. While Dr. Nirav Shah held healthy leads in polls throughout the year, four finished within six points of one another. With Dr. Shah placing first with only 26.5 percent, the Ranked Choice rounds will determine the outcome.

It is possible that any of the four, Dr. Shah, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, ex-state Senate President Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows all have a path to victory in the Ranked Choice rounds. This race will consume at least a week to decide and possibly more.

For the Republicans, RCV rounds will also be required though former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles has a substantial 18 percentage point lead. Therefore, both gubernatorial campaigns are headed to political overtime.

In the 2nd Congressional District, the Democratic field will go to the Ranked Choice Voting rounds as state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), former congressional aide Jordan Wood, and State Auditor Matt Dunlap are all within a three percentage point split. Fourth place finisher Paige Loud will be eliminated when the other three advance to the RCV rounds.

It will likely be more than a week before we also know the outcome of this campaign. The eventual winner will face former Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the open general election. Incumbent Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) did not seek re-election.

Nevada

The Nevada gubernatorial campaign was a non-event. Gov. Joe Lombardo received just short of 92 percent in the Republican primary and Attorney General Aaron Ford was a 65 percent winner on the Democratic side. A close general election race is expected. In a point of good news for the GOP, approximately 14,000 more Republicans than Democrats are projected to have voted in the respective primaries.

In the House races, all three Las Vegas Democratic incumbents were easily renominated, and each Republican favorite also won.

In District 1, state Sen. Carrie Buck (R-Henderson) will oppose veteran Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas). The Congresswoman is favored for re-election, but Sen. Buck is clearly the best candidate the GOP has filed in this district.

In CD 3, musical composer and video gaming company co-owner Marty O’Donnell was an easy Republican primary winner giving him the opportunity of facing four-term Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) in one of the few districts that supported President Trump but sent a Democrat to the House. This is a toss-up general election campaign.

In District 4, where veteran Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas) was unopposed for renomination, businessman and rancher Cody Whipple was an easy Republican primary winner. Of the three Las Vegas congressional districts, this is the most Democratic seat.

In District 2, the state’s lone Republican congressional seat, it appears that Trump-endorsed retired Air Force officer David Flippo is headed for a close victory over State Conservation Secretary and Gov. Lombardo-endorsed candidate James Settelmeyer.

Former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson is the Democratic primary winner. The Reno-anchored 2nd CD should remain in the Republican column but expect Democrats to make a concerted effort here to make the general election competitive.

North Dakota

There was little in the way of political intrigue in North Dakota last night. As expected, freshman at-large Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) was easily renominated with 73 percent of the vote.

On the Democratic side, 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer, who lost in a landslide in the last election, was unopposed for renomination last night. It is likely we will see a repeat performance in the 2026 at-large congressional election.

South Carolina

In a Republican gubernatorial primary campaign that was expected to be close among five candidates, the first two finishers ended the race breaking away from the field.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who carried both President Trump and Gov. Henry McMaster’s endorsements, placed first with 28.9 percent of the vote. Four-term Attorney General Alan Wilson was second with 26.1 percent support. Both now advance to a quick runoff election scheduled for June 23. The winner of that race will have the inside track to winning the general election in safely Republican South Carolina.

Approximately 10 percentage points behind the top two finishers was a closely bunched group; in order of finish, they were Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), businessman Rom Reddy, and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston). These three are now eliminated.

On the Democratic side, state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins) was an easy winner, scoring approximately 58 percent of the vote against two opponents. Because he exceeded the majority threshold figure, Johnson advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, as expected, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), on the ballot seeking a fifth six-year term, captured 57 percent of the vote against five opponents and will advance directly into the general election where he will again be favored to win re-election.

For the Democrats, pediatrician Annie Andrews was an easy 62 percent winner over two opponents. She, too, advances directly into the general election.

Turning to Rep. Mace’s open 1st District, a runoff election between Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Columbia) will be held on June 23. Honeycutt placed first with 22 percent against 10 opponents, four points ahead of Rep. Smith. The winner will become a heavy favorite in the general election.