Tag Archives: Alaska

Begich Wins in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 25, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

The final votes, including the Ranked Choice Voting rounds, were released late Wednesday night in Alaska, and Republican Nick Begich III has defeated two-term at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). In the current Congress, the Alaska seat is the most Republican House constituency to have elected a Democratic representative.

Before moving to the RCV rounds, Begich finished the initial count with 157,331 votes for 48.7 percent as opposed to Rep. Peltola’s 149,763 votes that translated into 46.3 percent support. The third and fourth place finishers, Alaska Independence Party nominee John Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner, attracted 12,751 votes (4.0 percent) and 3,323 (1.0 percent), respectively.

In the Ranked Choice first round, Hafner was eliminated and the ballots that ranked him in the first position were isolated. The second choice voters from those ballots were then distributed to the remaining three candidates. Since Hafner was running on the Democratic line, it was highly likely that the vast majority of the second-place choices would go to Peltola. This distribution successfully kept Begich under the 50 percent threshold, though he continued to hold a reduced lead.

In the second Ranked Choice round, with Howe eliminated, the second choice selections from his voters went hard for Begich by a 64-33 percent margin. This pushed challenger Begich to 51.3 percent as compared to the incumbent’s 48.7 percent. Thus, Begich clinched the election, and fulfilled his victory declaration from over the weekend. The result will become final at the state’s official certification deadline, which is Nov. 30.

The much needed Republican win moves the party to 219 seats in the House, assuming that Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) survives the requested recount, and she is favored to do so. Democrats now have 213 clinched seats also assuming that Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) prevails in her recount, and she, too, should prevail.

The final two uncalled seats lie in California, and we are still likely weeks away from seeing a final solution. Both contests, those of Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) are now separated by just hundreds of votes. Duarte is hanging onto a 227-vote lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) with an estimated five percent outstanding, while Rep. Steel has dropped behind her opponent, attorney Derek Tran, by 314 votes, also with an estimated five percent outstanding.

The closeness of these results suggests that whatever the final tally, we can expect both contests will head to recounts. If the Democrats win both of these races, which now may be considered the more likely outcome, the House division will then move to 219R – 215D.

One seat, that of resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), is vacant. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+38, there is no doubt that Republicans will hold onto the seat. The length of the vacancy, however, is unclear, which could cause short-term numerical problems for the GOP leadership.

In another Alaska race, despite trailing during the entire counting period, the final outstanding votes defeated the ballot initiative to repeal the state’s Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system. The final count gave the RCV proponents a 664-vote victory from 320,574 ballots cast.

Conversely, Ranked Choice Voting was defeated where it appeared in other state ballot propositions — Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

Alaska’s Peltola & Begich Now Neck & Neck; Surprising GOP Lead in MD-6; Zinke Leads in Montana Re-Election Bid; Republican Trailing in OR-5

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 9, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

AK-AL: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead — Under the Alaska top-four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.

A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 400 likely Alaska voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Republican Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45 percent. This suggests the NRCC will be going “all in” for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.

MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead — The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper but has consistently elected Democratic representatives since 2012. Earlier in the week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey (Aug. 24-31; 317 likely MD-6 voters; live interview) and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39 percent in Parrott’s favor.

Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid — Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46 percent victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D), which was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43 percent in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Tranel.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing — Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 26-28; 419 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview & text) finds the congresswoman trailing Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42 percent. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30 percent favorability index, Vice President Kamala Harris holds an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the congresswoman.

Klobuchar’s Lead in MN Narrows; Big Margins for Justice, Morrisey in WVa; Alaska’s Final Primary Numbers;
FL-13 is Neck-and-Neck

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 6, 2024

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: Surprising New Poll — Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (Aug. 25-28; 426 likely Minnesota voters) does not suggest any result other than the senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44 percent margin.

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (Aug. 27-29; 635 likely Minnesota voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the senator leading White, 50-36 percent.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Takes Command in Senate Race — In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (Aug. 21-27; 400 likely West Virginia voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the governor’s office, Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28 percent margin over Mayor Elliott.

Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey On Way to Clinching Governor’s Race — The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35 percent against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Morrisey will easily hold the governor’s position for the GOP.

House

AK-AL: Primary Numbers Final — The Alaska Aug. 20 primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9 percent of the vote in the state’s unique top-four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.

In second place was Republican Nick Begich III with 26.6 percent followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9 percent support. The fourth-place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes for less than one percent. Dahlstrom is forfeiting her general election position, and it is unclear if Salisbury will continue. Therefore, it appears that Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola in a budding one-on-one campaign.

While Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast, meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.

FL-13: A Different Perspective — Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44 percent margin. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (Aug. 28-29; 400 likely FL-13 voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43 percent advantage.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Primary Results:
Alaska, Florida, Wyoming

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 21, 2024

Primary Results

Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola (D)

Alaska: Peltola, Begich Finish 1, 2 — As expected, at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished first in the top-four Alaska jungle primary, but the unanswered question was whether businessman Nick Begich III or Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, the choice of the Republican establishment and former President Donald Trump, would become her prime competitor. While Rep. Peltola is knocking on the door of the majority support threshold as ballots continue to be counted, it was Begich who secured second place, while Dahlstrom finished almost seven points behind him and 30 points behind the congresswoman.

The next few days of jockeying will be interesting. The Republicans will have their best chance of unseating Rep. Peltola if they unite behind one candidate, and it appears their only choice will be Begich. If they remain divided among two major GOP contenders, then the outcome will be the same as we’ve seen before, which is that Rep. Peltola will continue representing the most Republican congressional district in the country to elect a Democrat to the House.

Florida: Scott Romps; No Major Upsets — The Florida primary unfolded as expected. Sen. Rick Scott (R) and former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) were easy winners in their respective primaries. Sen. Scott posted over 84 percent in the Republican primary, while Mucarsel-Powell captured just over two-thirds of the Democratic vote.

Sen. Scott and Mucarsel-Powell will now advance to the general election where the incumbent is favored in a state where the Republican registered voter factor exceeds its Democratic counterparts by more than 1 million individuals.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) was again an easy winner, exceeding 72 percent of the vote over Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock who moved into the district to challenge the congressman. Gaetz will now advance into the general election where he becomes a prohibitive favorite in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+38.

In the Atlantic coastal 8th District, as expected, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos topped 72 percent of the vote to claim the Republican nomination. He will replace retiring Congressman Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) who announced that he would not seek re-election just before the candidate filing deadline expired. Haridopolos now becomes a sure winner in the general election.

In a St. Petersburg-anchored congressional district that can become competitive, marketing consultant Whitney Fox, as expected, easily won the Democratic primary and advances into the general election to oppose freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg). The congresswoman is favored, but the district electorate is relatively close. The Republican general election vote is likely to land in the low to mid-50s.

Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), who Trump targeted for defeat before he decided to endorse her when no major GOP competition emerged, also topped 72 percent in last night’s GOP primary. Hillsborough County Commissioner Patricia Kemp, who was unopposed in the Democratic primary, will now become Rep. Lee’s November opponent. Since Kemp has under-performed on the fundraising circuit, Rep. Lee is viewed as a clear November favorite in central Florida’s most competitive seat.

Veteran Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) faced a credible Republican primary opponent, but the congressman easily prevailed with 61 percent voter preference. The primary should prove to be Rep. Buchanan’s most formidable challenge in a 16th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+13.

In South Florida, we saw a minor upset as Miami-Dade County School Board member Lucia Baez-Geller defeated former Key Biscayne Mayor Mike Davey with a 54 percent vote total. She now will face two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) in what appears to be a dead-even district on paper demographically, but with an electorate that tends to vote more conservatively.

Wyoming: Barrasso, Hageman Renominated — As predicted, Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso (R) and at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) were easily renominated with landslide Republican primary victories last night. Sen. Barrasso’s 68 percent victory at this writing and Rep. Hageman scoring 81 percent of the primary vote will send both office holders to the general election in what promises to be Donald Trump’s strongest state in the country.

Trump Endorses Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom for House Seat; Ciscomani Leads in Arizona; Rare Poll in IL-17; Five-Term Rep. Graves Won’t Run in LA-6

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 21, 2024

House

Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R)

AK-AL: Trump Endorses Lt. Governor — The Alaska at-large district is the most Republican seat that a House Democrat holds. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) has won three congressional elections, largely through the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. This year, the stage may be set for a similar conclusion. Businessman Nick Begich III (R), nephew of former Democratic US Sen. Mark Begich (D), ran against former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in the special election when veteran Rep. Don Young (R) passed away, and for both succeeding regular terms. This year, while Palin is not running, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom has joined the Republican congressional field.

Under the Alaska system, all candidates appear on the jungle primary ballot, and the top four primary finishers advance into the general election irrespective of political party affiliation. Former President Donald Trump announced his endorsement for Dahlstrom, the candidate who enjoys the national and state Republican Party leadership backing. With two strong candidates battling for the Republican vote, it is likely that Rep. Peltola will again finish first among the top four general election finalists. The question to be answered is whether she can reach the 50 percent mark. If not, Ranked Choice Voting then takes effect.

Begich says he will withdraw if Dahlstrom places ahead of him in the initial qualifying election on Aug. 20. Dahlstrom has yet to make a similar promise.

In the latest available published poll, though dated, from Data for Progress (Feb. 23-3/2; 1,120 likely AK-AL voters; online), Begich had a large 41-12 percent lead over Dahlstrom. In a head to head pairing against Rep. Peltola, the congresswoman and Begich tied at 50-50 percent. Once again, the Alaska at-large campaign is a race to watch.

AZ-6: Rep. Ciscomani Holds Comfortable Lead — An internal Public Opinion Strategies poll (May 28-30; 300 likely AZ-6 general election voters; live interview) for the Juan Ciscomani re-election campaign finds the freshman Arizona congressman holding a 50-39 percent advantage over former state senator and 2022 Democratic congressional nominee Kirsten Engel as the two prepare for a rematch from the campaign of two years ago.

The 6th District, which sits in Arizona’s southeastern corner, is politically marginal in nature but made more Republican in the 2021 redistricting plan. In the previous election, Ciscomani defeated Engel, 50.7 – 49.2 percent, a margin of 5,232 votes. The same survey finds former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden, but with a smaller margin than Rep. Ciscomani’s advantage, 49-45 percent. In 2020, Biden carried this region with the slightest 49.3 – 49.2 percent edge.

IL-17: Rare Poll is Published — If there is a competitive seat in the Illinois delegation, it is the far western 17th District, anchored in the Quad Cities, which freshman Rep. Eric Sorensen (D-Moline) now represents. Republicans nominated retired circuit judge Joe McGraw back in March. The 1892 survey research organization just released their polling data (released June 19; 400 likely IL-17 voters; live interview) and the results find Rep. Sorensen holding a 44-35 percent lead over McGraw.

The 17th was highly competitive prior to the last redistricting, but the legislative Democrats who drew the plan configured the 17th in a much different manner. The district configuration now resembles the form of a letter “C” beginning in the city of Rockford, then coming west to pick up the Illinois section of the Quad Cities, meaning the cities of Rock Island and Moline, and then turns east to include Galesburg, downtown Peoria, and the territory all the way to Bloomington. The FiveThirtyEight data organization calculates a D+4 rating for the post-redistricting 17th, but that number should realistically increase because of a new Democratic incumbent seeking re-election.

LA-6: Rep. Graves Won’t Run –– This year’s final chapter in the Louisiana redistricting saga perhaps has now been written. Earlier in this election cycle, a court struck down the Louisiana congressional map as a racial gerrymander because a second majority minority seat could be drawn and was not. Then the map was redrawn to transform the current 6th CD into such a district, but it stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport. Activists sued to get the map disqualified since it was similar to a draw the courts rejected in 1994 because the Constitution forbids race being a determining factor in drawing districts. Subsequently, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on that ruling, thus reviving the original redraw that created the state’s second majority minority seat.

Though there is likely to be a future challenge to the map, it appears evident that this will be the Louisiana congressional plan that prevails at least for the 2024 election. As a result, the odd man out on this draw is five-term Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) who was left with the choice of running in a decidedly Democratic new 6th CD (Biden ’20: 59-39 percent) or challenging either Republican incumbents Julia Letlow (R-Start) or Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette).

Graves has now decided not to challenge either member, saying he does not wish to upset the Republican political apple cart for what could only be a short-term map. The litigation in this redistricting case is far from over, so Graves’ congressional career may not be ending, but only suspended.

With Rep. Graves leaving the House and state Sen. Michael Rulli (R) winning the OH-6 special election on June 11, it means there are now 50 open congressional seats, 25 from the Democratic column, and 24 from the Republican side, along with the newly created Alabama district through that state’s redraw. The open seat number will reduce to 49 when the vacant Colorado District 4 is filled in a special election on June 25.