Tag Archives: Alaska

House Overview – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 22, 2025

House

Already we have seen developments occur in key 2026 House election cycle campaigns. Over the next four days, we will recap the action. Today, we look at districts in Alaska through Colorado; tomorrow, Florida to Minnesota. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

At this point, it appears there are 49 races in the competitive category. Republicans currently hold 26 of the seats and Democrats 23. Therefore, we can expect another tight election cycle.

Alaska

AK-AL — While polling again suggests another dead heat race for at-large freshman Rep. Nick Begich, III (R-Chugiak) if former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) were to return for a re-match, it appears such a contest will not materialize. It is highly likely that Peltola will enter the state’s open Governor’s race.

Arizona

AZ-1 — In November, Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) defeated state Rep. Amish Shah (D) 52-48 percent. Already, Dr. Shah, former news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galen-Woods (D), and businessman Jonathan Treble (D) have announced their candidacies. A competitive Democratic primary and general election is on the horizon for this Maricopa County congressional seat.

AZ-6 — Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) again defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D) and did so with a 50-47 percent margin. Engel stated that she will not return for a third congressional race. Retired Marine Corps Sergeant JoAnna Mendoza (D) has already raised over $800,000 for her announced campaign. She reports over $726,000 cash-on-hand, while Rep. Ciscomani posts over $1.2 million in his campaign account. This will again be a highly competitive national congressional campaign.

AZ-7 — The special general election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) is scheduled for Sept. 23. The determinative battle, however, will be the July 15 Democratic primary. Though five candidates have filed for the party primary, the race is realistically between Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. This district will not be competitive in the 2026 regular election.

California

CA-3 — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) was re-elected to a second term with 55 percent of the vote in November. He has drawn a significant Democratic opponent for 2026. Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall (D) announced that she will enter the ’26 campaign. Her constituency represents approximately 15 percent of the district population.

CA-9 — Rep. Josh Harder (D-Tracy) defeated Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) by a slight 52-48 percent margin in 2024. Lincoln says he is considering returning for a re-match but has not yet announced his 2026 candidacy. Rep. Harder already reports over $2.2 million in his campaign war chest.

CA-13 — This district hosted the closest House race in the entire country last year, as now-Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) defeated then-Rep. John Duarte (R) by just 187 votes. Republicans appear to have their act together for 2026. They have recruited Ceres Mayor Javier Lopez (R) into the developing contest. Duarte has already announced that he will not return for a re-match and endorsed Lopez. Rep. Gray had a weak 1st Quarter from a fundraising perspective. He posts only $344,000 in his campaign account.

CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) represents the most Democratic seat in the nation to elect a Republican to the House. In November, he again defeated former Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), this time, 53-47 percent. Salas may return for a third run but has not yet announced his intentions. Visalia School Board Trustee Randy Villegas (D) is a declared candidate and says he will remain in the race irrespective of what Salas decides. In 2026, this will again be a top national congressional campaign.

CA-41 — The Inland Empire will again feature a competitive race for 17-term Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona), but he will have a different general election opponent. Democratic former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, who ran two close races against the veteran Congressman, has already announced that he will not return for a third run. Democrats have recruited Grammy Award winning musician Tim Myers in his place.

CA-45 — Freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) defeated then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by just 683 votes, making it the second-closest congressional race in the country. Steel immediately filed a 2026 FEC committee upon her defeat but only raised a little over $74,000 in the 1st Quarter. She has over $942,000 in her campaign account, however. Therefore, we are likely to see another highly competitive Tran-Steel contest here in 2026. For his part, Rep. Tran posted just over $547,000 in his campaign committee.

CA-49 — Four-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) defeated Republican Matt Gunderson 52-48 percent in November but is likely to face a stronger opponent in 2026. San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is an announced candidate and only one of two Republican US House challengers nationwide to raise over $400,000 in the 1st Quarter. Though the Orange County candidates have dominated this district in recent elections, San Diego County holds two-thirds of the CD’s residents. Therefore, this should be a race to watch in 2026.

Colorado

CO-8 — The politically marginal 8th District of Colorado that lies north and east of Denver will perennially be on the competitive House race list. In 2022, Democrat Yadira Caraveo won the seat with 48 percent of the vote. In 2024, Republican state Rep. Gabe Evans unseated her with 49 percent. Another tough race is in store for what will always be a vulnerable incumbent.

Caraveo has announced she will return for a rematch but must first get past state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) to secure the party nomination. Rutinel posted impressive fundraising numbers in the 1st Quarter, attracting more than $1.2 million in support. Therefore, we can expect to see a hot Democratic primary and general election here in 2026.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

House Re-Match Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Today and tomorrow, we will review 23 of the closest ‘24 House contests and identify which of the districts could host a re-match campaign. Part I will cover the most competitive CDs from Alaska through Iowa.

AK-AL:

  • Nick Begich III (R) unseated then-Rep. Mary Peltola (D)
  • 51.2 – 48.8% — Vote Difference: 7,876

Reports suggest that former Rep. Peltola is getting Democratic Party and community leader pressure to run for Governor, US Senate, and US House. There is a good chance that she chooses the open Governor’s race.

Therefore, a re-match between she and Rep. Begich currently appears as a long shot. No candidate from either party has yet come forward to declare interest in challenging Begich.

AZ-1:

  • Rep. David Schweikert (R) defeated State Rep. Amish Shah (D)
  • 51.9 – 48.1% — Vote Difference: 16,572

Veteran Rep. Schweikert, now in a more competitive post-redistricting seat, won a relatively comfortable victory over then-State Representative and physician Amish Shah. At this point, Dr. Shah is signaling returning for a re-match but will again have competition in the Democratic primary.

Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his congressional candidacy. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Sen. John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be a highly competitive race.

AZ-2:

  • Rep. Eli Crane (R) defeated former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez (D)
  • 54.5 – 45.5% — Vote Difference: 36,450

Rep. Crane defended his northeastern Arizona district with a nine-point win, but this was a closer than expected contest from what is regarded as a safe Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight data rating: R+15). Nez spent over $5.4 million, which put his campaign on the political map.

The 2024 challenger has already announced that he will return for a re-match and no Democratic primary opposition is expected. This race could become a second-tier target.

AZ-6:

  • Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) topped ex-state Senator Kirsten Engel (D)
  • 50 – 47.5% — Vote Difference: 10,822

The 2024 campaign marked the second time Ciscomani and Engel fought to a close finish. In last November’s race, Rep. Ciscomani, while still winning a close matchup, almost doubled his victory margin from 2022 when the newly constructed seat was open.

Engel is indicating she will not return for a third run, and retired Marine Corps Sgt. Jo Mendoza (D) has already declared her candidacy. The nature of the Tucson-anchored southeastern Arizona 6th CD is tightly partisan, so we can expect seeing a close finish here in 2026 and likely in every election year throughout the remainder of the decade.

CA-9:

  • Rep. Josh Harder (D) outpaced Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R)
  • 51.8 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 9,009

Republicans recruited a strong candidate in Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who won an election in the 9th District’s most Democratic locality. He is reportedly undecided about seeking a re-match with Rep. Harder who outspent the Mayor in a 2:1 ratio. It is likely that only Mayor Lincoln could put this seat in play for 2026.

CA-13:

  • Adam Gray (D) unseated Rep. John Duarte (R)
  • 50.04 – 49.96% — Vote Difference: 187

The closest US House contest in the country went the Democrats’ way as former state Assemblyman Adam Gray returned for a 2024 re-match with MDuarte and this time landed on the winning side of a razor-thin margin of 187 votes from 210,921 ballots cast. In 2022, Duarte won with a 564-vote spread.

Duarte is lobbying for a position in the new Trump Administration as the Administrator of the Bureau of Reclamation. He says he is open to running for the House again, so it remains to be seen if a third Gray-Duarte campaign will transpire.

The former Congressman losing was a bit of a surprise considering President Trump carried the 13th District by six percentage points. One would have believed such a coattail margin would have been enough to bring an incumbent Representative through.

CA-45:

  • Derek Tran (D) unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R)
  • 50.1 – 49.9% — Vote Difference: 653

The second-closest House race in the country was also found in California, as attorney Derek Tran just slipped past two-term Rep. Steel by 653 votes from 315,875 ballots cast. This is a race where a re-match was immediately announced, as Steel said she would make a return appearance in 2026 right after the election and filed a campaign committee before 2024 ended.

Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+5, Steel has already proven she is very competitive within the region. This will once again be a hotly contested race next year that could go either way.

CO-8:

  • State Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
  • 48.9 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 2,449

In a district designed as politically marginal and one that would consistently reflect the will of a tight partisan electorate, Colorado’s 8th CD in its two terms of existence has performed as intended. Both Caraveo in 2022 and Evans in 2024 won the seat with less than majority support. We can again expect a highly competitive campaign next year.

It does not appear that Caraveo will attempt to reclaim the seat that she lost in November. Already, however, the Democrats have a new candidate in the person of state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) who has officially announced his congressional candidacy. CO-8 will become a top targeted 2026 national campaign.

CT-5:

  • Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) defeated ex-state Sen. George Logan (R)
  • 53.4 – 46.6% — Vote Difference: 23,010

After surviving a close call with then-state Sen. Logan in 2022, Rep. Hayes expanded her victory margin and has likely sent her opponent into political exile at least for a while. There is no indication that Logan will return for a third try especially since he lost ground in his second attempt. The district is competitive (FiveThirtyEight: D+3), so expect the GOP to recruit another strong challenger, but probably not Logan.

IA-1:

  • Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated ex-St. Rep. Christina Bohannan (D)
  • 48.4 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 799

The third-closest House race was present in southeast Iowa. Four years ago, a different configuration of this district delivered the closest election of the decade, a six-vote win for Miller-Meeks.

This campaign signaled that a close general election would occur when Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded a low 56 percent win over her GOP challenger David Pautsch, an opponent who spent only $38,382 on his campaign. Pautsch has announced he will return for a primary re-match and promises to run a more professional campaign.

In the 2024 general election, Rep. Miller-Meeks again defeated — and this time by a much smaller margin — ex-state Rep. Bohannan. Whether a third version of this pairing happens in 2026 remains to be seen, but Bohannan has not ruled out another comeback attempt.

Expect the Congresswoman to move to the right to blunt her primary opposition. Regardless of who the Democrats put forth this general election campaign will evolve into another political dogfight.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

Begich Wins in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 25, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

The final votes, including the Ranked Choice Voting rounds, were released late Wednesday night in Alaska, and Republican Nick Begich III has defeated two-term at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). In the current Congress, the Alaska seat is the most Republican House constituency to have elected a Democratic representative.

Before moving to the RCV rounds, Begich finished the initial count with 157,331 votes for 48.7 percent as opposed to Rep. Peltola’s 149,763 votes that translated into 46.3 percent support. The third and fourth place finishers, Alaska Independence Party nominee John Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner, attracted 12,751 votes (4.0 percent) and 3,323 (1.0 percent), respectively.

In the Ranked Choice first round, Hafner was eliminated and the ballots that ranked him in the first position were isolated. The second choice voters from those ballots were then distributed to the remaining three candidates. Since Hafner was running on the Democratic line, it was highly likely that the vast majority of the second-place choices would go to Peltola. This distribution successfully kept Begich under the 50 percent threshold, though he continued to hold a reduced lead.

In the second Ranked Choice round, with Howe eliminated, the second choice selections from his voters went hard for Begich by a 64-33 percent margin. This pushed challenger Begich to 51.3 percent as compared to the incumbent’s 48.7 percent. Thus, Begich clinched the election, and fulfilled his victory declaration from over the weekend. The result will become final at the state’s official certification deadline, which is Nov. 30.

The much needed Republican win moves the party to 219 seats in the House, assuming that Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) survives the requested recount, and she is favored to do so. Democrats now have 213 clinched seats also assuming that Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) prevails in her recount, and she, too, should prevail.

The final two uncalled seats lie in California, and we are still likely weeks away from seeing a final solution. Both contests, those of Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) are now separated by just hundreds of votes. Duarte is hanging onto a 227-vote lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) with an estimated five percent outstanding, while Rep. Steel has dropped behind her opponent, attorney Derek Tran, by 314 votes, also with an estimated five percent outstanding.

The closeness of these results suggests that whatever the final tally, we can expect both contests will head to recounts. If the Democrats win both of these races, which now may be considered the more likely outcome, the House division will then move to 219R – 215D.

One seat, that of resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), is vacant. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+38, there is no doubt that Republicans will hold onto the seat. The length of the vacancy, however, is unclear, which could cause short-term numerical problems for the GOP leadership.

In another Alaska race, despite trailing during the entire counting period, the final outstanding votes defeated the ballot initiative to repeal the state’s Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system. The final count gave the RCV proponents a 664-vote victory from 320,574 ballots cast.

Conversely, Ranked Choice Voting was defeated where it appeared in other state ballot propositions — Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada.

Nebraska Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System; Begich Up in Alaska; Lawler Leads Jones in NY-17; New Hampshire’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024

President

Nebraska: Not Likely to Change Electoral Vote System — The proposed move to change the Nebraska electoral vote apportionment is apparently dead. A key state senator announced his opposition, and the bill appears stalled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) was urging that the unicameral legislature change the state back to winner-take-all status like 48 other states. While the entire congressional delegation supported the governor’s move, the legislature is not going along.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that allow their congressional districts to carry their own electoral vote. The proposed change in Nebraska’s status would likely have given Donald Trump an extra electoral vote, which could be defining in what is expected to be a very close election. Chances are much better to make a change to effect the 2028 election. The state adopted their current electoral vote system in 1992.

House

AK-AL: Republican Begich Up for First Time — For the first time, a congressional poll shows Republican Nick Begich III leading incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). American Viewpoint, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee, (Sept. 14-17; 400 likely Alaska voters) finds Begich posting an edge of four points over Rep. Peltola, 44-40 percent.

Under the state’s top four system, two other candidates also advance into the general election, Democrat Eric Hafner, who is in federal prison, and Alaska Independent Party candidate John Wayne Howe. Should the final result show Begich the race leader but under 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting System will take effect, and this would likely mean that Rep. Peltola would win re-election even while getting fewer original votes.

NY-17: Lawler Continues to Lead — One of the key New York congressional races is Rep. Mike Lawler’s (R-Pearl River) first re-election battle in the D+7 (according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization) 17th Congressional District located in the Hudson Valley. Challenging the freshman congressman is former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D).

The survey, from the Democratic polling firm GBAO (Sept. 15-18; 500 likely NY-17 voters; live interview and text), finds Rep. Lawler leading Jones, 46-43 percent, which, the polling analysis illustrates is down from the congressman’s seven-point margin in August. Still, a Republican having any lead in such a district is a positive sign for the incumbent.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Leads Ayotte — Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte easily won the Republican primary on Sept. 10 (66-32 percent over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse), but the general election looks much different according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll (Sept. 12-16; 1,695 likely New Hampshire general election voters; online). The ballot test shows a virtual tie between Ayotte and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), 47-46 percent.

New Hampshire is a swing state that has been trending Democratic in recent elections. Former President Donald Trump has performed below an average Republican, which is another factor that could hurt Ayotte. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad that compares Ayotte’s statement is 2016 that she would not vote for Trump with her current position that she is supporting him in 2024.

Alaska’s Peltola & Begich Now Neck & Neck; Surprising GOP Lead in MD-6; Zinke Leads in Montana Re-Election Bid; Republican Trailing in OR-5

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 9, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

AK-AL: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead — Under the Alaska top-four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.

A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 400 likely Alaska voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Republican Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45 percent. This suggests the NRCC will be going “all in” for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.

MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead — The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper but has consistently elected Democratic representatives since 2012. Earlier in the week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey (Aug. 24-31; 317 likely MD-6 voters; live interview) and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39 percent in Parrott’s favor.

Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid — Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46 percent victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D), which was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43 percent in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Tranel.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing — Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 26-28; 419 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview & text) finds the congresswoman trailing Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42 percent. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30 percent favorability index, Vice President Kamala Harris holds an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the congresswoman.