Tag Archives: Missouri

El-Sayed’s Close Primary Win;
Results Wrap-Up From Four States

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The marquee race of the Aug. 4 primary night – the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race – came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The night began with El-Sayed initially tallying up a large lead, but Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin should be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. State Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner for the Republicans, who are aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50 percent of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one of them ended his active campaign last week.

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80 percent of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43 percent Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73 percent victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46 percent of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41 percent of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49 percent, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot.

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis).

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37 percent victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in November.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas, and Rep. Cleaver must be considered an underdog for the general election.

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater-anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly, because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50 percent of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60 percent of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane-anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50 percent of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.

Primary Preview:
Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

In addition to the Michigan primary, which we covered extensively yesterday, three other states, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington, are holding primaries today. Only Virginia features a statewide contest, and even that race is headed for a non‑competitive general election.

>Missouri

The state’s eight congressional campaigns lead the 2026 ballot in the Show Me State. The major primary battles are occurring in Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D‑Kansas City) newly redrawn 5th District and the open 6th District, where Republican voters will choose a successor to retiring Rep. Sam Graves (R‑Tarkio). Additionally, freshman Rep. Wesley Bell (D‑St. Louis) faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2024, former US Rep. Cori Bush.

In the St. Louis-anchored 1st District, Rep. Bell is again locked in a tough campaign with former Rep. Bush. Their 2024 contest was bitter, and this year’s race is no different. Bush continues to portray Rep. Bell as aligned with the establishment and too close to Republicans, though the Congressman’s voting record does not support such a claim.

Rep. Bell holds a 3:1 fundraising advantage and is again expected to prevail. The 1st District is now the state’s lone Democratic seat, and it will remain under the party’s control regardless of who wins tonight’s nomination.

In the St. Louis suburban 2nd District, veteran US Rep. Ann Wagner (R‑Ballwin) and Democratic retired Army officer Fred Wellman both appear to be facing only minor opposition for their respective nominations. With a partisan lean of 54.5R – 43.2D (Dave’s Redistricting App), Rep. Wagner has the inside track for November, though Democrats are still expected to invest heavily to support Wellman.

The newly drawn 5th Congressional District was the focal point of Missouri’s 2026 redistricting plan. Its partisan lean shifts from 60.8D – 35.9R to 56.6R – 41.1D, making a Republican victory in November highly likely and placing Rep. Cleaver at serious political risk. This seat is central to GOP hopes of protecting their slim House majority. Six Republicans are competing for the nomination, and three appear viable.

Rep. Graves is retiring after 26 years in Congress and eight years in the Missouri legislature. Tonight’s GOP primary will determine his successor. He has endorsed radio talk show host Chris Stigall, one of five Republicans on the ballot. Stigall’s strongest competitors are Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett and businessman Nathanael Schultz.

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) is on the ballot for what he says will be the final time. When announcing his 2026 re‑election bid, Warner stated that he intends to retire when the next term ends in early 2033. He is unopposed for renomination, and none of the six Republicans running appear positioned to mount a strong general‑election challenge.

Virginia’s redistricting referendum, despite passing, was nullified in court after judges ruled that the Democratic legislature and Governor violated state constitutional requirements by rushing the measure to the ballot. Lawmakers plan to return with a new referendum in 2027, to run concurrently with the state House and Senate elections. For 2026, the 2021 map remains in effect.

Rep. Rob Wittman’s (R‑Montrose) 1st District is the second‑weakest pro‑Trump seat in the state, though the President still carried the district with a five-point margin. Rep. Wittman’s likely opponent is Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney and 2025 Attorney General candidate Shannon Taylor, who is favored to emerge from her five‑candidate Democratic field. She is expected to run a strong general election campaign, though Rep. Wittman remains favored for 2026. He will, however, be a top target when the 2027 redistricting map is drawn.

In the Virginia Beach-anchored 2nd District, where President Trump narrowly prevailed over Kamala Harris in 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R‑Virginia Beach) is seeking a third term. Her opponent will be former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D), whom she unseated in 2022. The general election promises to be intense and highly competitive meaning it should be considered a toss‑up all the way to Election Day.

For a time, it appeared former Rep. Bob Good would return to challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R‑Manakin‑Sabot) in the mid‑state 5th District. Good ultimately declined, leaving Rep. McGuire unopposed in the Republican primary.

The general election, however, features a formidable Democratic candidate: former Rep. Tom Perriello. He would likely have been favored under the new map, so his decision to continue running after the referendum was struck down suggests he may be positioning himself for 2028, when district lines are expected to be more favorable for a Democratic candidate.

In the Alexandria/Arlington-anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D‑Alexandria) faces four Democratic challengers in a moderately competitive primary. Rep. Beyer remains a strong favorite, but the candidates may also be positioning themselves for a potential 2028 open seat. Rep. Beyer will be 78 years old at the time of the next election and will be widely viewed as a retirement possibility.

Washington

Washington is one of four states – Alaska, California, and Louisiana are the others – that use a jungle primary format. As a result, voters will not select partisan nominees tonight. Instead, the top two finishers, regardless of party or vote percentage, will advance to the general election.

The most competitive contests are in southwest District 3, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D‑Skamania County) is attempting to win a third term in a Republican‑leaning district; the open 4th District; and the Spokane‑anchored 5th District.

With resigned Trump appointee Joe Kent not returning for a third attempt in the 3rd CD, Republicans have an opportunity to field a stronger challenger. That candidate is state Senate Minority Leader and retired Navy Captain John Braun (R‑Chehalis), who has led in jungle primary polling. Should Sen. Braun qualify for November, as appears likely, Rep. Perez will face her toughest campaign yet in a seat that is rapidly becoming a must‑win Republican target.

In central Washington District 4, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R‑Sunnyside) is retiring, leaving six Republicans, one Democrat, and four Independents competing for the seat.

Historically, this district has set the precedent of sending two Republicans to the general election, but with only one Democrat on the ballot, retired Air Force officer John Duresky, the chances of his advancing have substantially improved. Republicans are still very likely to hold the seat, potentially with state Sen. Matt Boehnke (R‑Kennewick), though a first‑place finish for Duresky tonight is not out of the question.

In District 5, freshman Rep. Mike Baumgartner (R‑Spokane) is favored for re‑election. The remaining question is whom he will face in November: one of the six Democrats running or one of four Independents. Democrat Carmela Conroy and Independent Nate Powell both have strong prospects of securing the second ballot position needed to challenge the Congressman.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

Missouri Rep. Sam Graves to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 30, 2026

House

Veteran US Rep. Sam Graves (R-Tarkio)
of Missouri

Veteran US Rep. Sam Graves (R-Tarkio), the chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee who has represented northern Missouri since the turn of the century, will not seek re-election later this year. Rep. Graves, who had previously filed his documents to mount a campaign, changed his mind about running, now saying he believes it is his time to step aside.

Graves was initially elected to the House in 2000 and only dropped below 60 percent support one time in his 12 re-election campaigns. Prior to serving in Congress, Graves won seats in both the Missouri state House of Representatives and state Senate. He has been in elective office consecutively since the 1992 election.

The Graves retirement means there are temporarily 61 open US House seats headed to the next election. The number will recede to 59 when the special elections in GA-14 (April 7) and NJ-11 (April 16) occur to fill vacant seats. Of the 61 open positions, 27 members, including Rep. Graves, are retiring from elective politics. The remainder are running, or have run, for a different office.

Missouri’s 6th District contains the state’s northern counties beyond Kansas City to the Iowa border and all the way to the western Illinois border. Under the new Missouri congressional map drawn for the 2026 election cycle, the 6th now contains a significant part of Kansas City including the major Kansas City International Airport and the North Kansas City community.

The addition of the Kansas City metro region reduces the district’s Republican partisan lean by approximately six percentage points, but CD-6 remains as the GOP’s third strongest domain in the Show Me State. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean calculations, the new MO-6 records a 61.5R – 36.5D split. President Trump received 68.8 percent of the vote in the previous district as compared to Kamala Harris’ 30.0 percent.

With the Missouri candidate filing deadline expiring tomorrow, we can expect a number of candidates to come forward to file in the new open 6th District. The eventual Republican nominee coming from the Aug. 4 primary should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

Whether the new map will be used for the 2026 election remains in question, however, even as candidate filing is closing. Petition signatures have been filed for an initiative to repeal the new map, but the qualification process is not complete. More than enough signatures have been submitted to meet the basic requirement for ballot line acquisition, but whether all additional legal requirements have been met remains unanswered.

Therefore, as the candidates file under the new map, the possibility remains that the repeal initiative could force a re-filing under the previous map. A court ruling on Friday upheld the new plan, but the Secretary of State has until the Aug. 4 primary to rule on signature validation.

According to Missouri initiative law, a ballot proposition requires signatures equal to five percent of the total number of votes cast for the most recent gubernatorial campaign. In this case, the 2024 gubernatorial election saw 2,960,266 ballots cast, meaning the five percent total would require 148,013 valid signatures.

The procedure, however, requires the petitions to equal five percent of the gubernatorial total vote in two-thirds of the state’s congressional districts, or likely six of the eight. Therefore, the actual number of required signatures could be lower than the calculated statewide total. The redistricting opponents have submitted more than 305,000 signatures.

The new draw centers around the state’s 5th District that veteran Congressman Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) represents. Instead of being a Kansas City metro district, the new 5th stretches from the city of Independence eastward through central Missouri and past the capital city of Jefferson City.

The new map changes the 5th District from a seat with a DRA partisan lean of 60.8D – 35.9R to one that would likely elect a Republican with a 56.6R – 41.1D spread. The remaining seven seats, 6R and 1D, will remain with the current party.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

The New Missouri Lines

Missouri Congressional Districts / Click on image to go to Dave’s Redistricting interactive map.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 6, 2025

Redistricting

Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe (R) signed the legislature’s new congressional redistricting map this week, so it appears that the Show Me State delegation will compete in new districts next year.

Naturally, lawsuits are being filed to nullify the new map, and it remains to be seen how the courts will rule through the continuing legal process. Depending upon the lawsuit’s subject matter, the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case before the US Supreme Court could have an effect upon future Missouri map rulings. Oral arguments for the Louisiana case are scheduled for Oct. 15, with a decision to come before the year ends.

The new Missouri map protects all six GOP incumbents, though most shed Republican voters in order to create a new western Republican 5th District. At the heart of the new plan is changing the Kansas City area to create a new Republican leaning seat instead of 11-term Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D-Kansas City) urban downtown district.

To make the plan work for the GOP, the map drawers expanded the 4th District’s Jackson County share, including drawing the seat directly into Kansas City. Previously, the 4th contained part of Jackson County but none of Kansas City. The design then drives the new 5th CD into rural areas, while still keeping a large portion of Kansas City. The new draw then extends the seat east all the way past Jefferson City, meaning the 5th district’s eastern boundary is now closer to St. Louis than Kansas City.

The new partisan lean of 58.4R – 40.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) is quite different from the previous 5th’s 60.8D – 35.9R division. The difference is a net swing of 43.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor.

Though the new 5th District appears reliably Republican, Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas (D) indicated he might consider running for Congress there, believing the seat will still be competitive and assuming 80-year-old Rep. Cleaver does not seek re-election. The Mayor indicated he wants to ensure that “Kansas Citians … have a choice at the ballot box that represents Kansas City viewpoints and values.”

The 4th District alterations are also substantial. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 59.9R – 38.7D. The previous 4th held a partisan break of 66.8R – 29.9D under the same projection formula, so we see a net change of almost 16 percentage points toward the Democratic line.

Rep. Mark Alford’s (R-Lake Winnebago) 4th is still strongly Republican, and the Congressman will be a clear favorite to win re-election, but he may have to wage a more active campaign than he would have from his original 4th CD.

The remaining six districts all keep their population cores though the partisan leans change in some cases.

The 1st District is again largely the city of St. Louis, but the partisan lean has been made just slightly more Democratic. In the 2021 map, the partisan division was projected at 77.1D – 20.4R. The new 1st carries a 77.9D – 20.3R break. Here, we are likely to see a Democratic primary re-match.

Earlier in the week, former Rep. Cori Bush, who lost renomination in 2024, said she will return to face now-Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis). Irrespective of who prevails in next year’s Aug. 4 Dem primary, the winner will claim the new 1st in the general election.

Another Republican redraw goal was to improve Rep. Ann Wagner’s (R-Ballwin) re-election prospects in her St. Louis suburban 2nd District by adding more Republican voters. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations, the new partisan lean is 54.9R – 43.4D, which is a further cushion of about a point and a half for the seven-term incumbent.

The Republicans from District 3 (freshman Rep. Bob Onder) and 6 (Rep. Sam Graves) both see their respective districts become slightly more Democratic, but the two seats remain firmly in the GOP camp and neither incumbent will have trouble being re-elected.

The two southern Missouri congressional seats, District 7 (Rep. Eric Burlison) and 8 (Rep. Jason Smith), actually see their two safe Republican seats become even more so under the new plan.

Assuming the new map withstands the legal challenges, expect the Republicans to see a net gain of one seat in the Missouri delegation.

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

Harris Leads Trump by Just One in Virginia; Sen. Hawley Expands Lead in Missouri; Brown Even in Nevada; Sykes Battles in OH-13

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Virginia Shock Poll: Harris Up by Only One — A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48 percent, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia.

The survey (Oct. 22-24; 725 likely Virginia voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77 percent support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21 percent is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57 percent support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41 percent in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41 percent is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.

The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (Oct. 19-23; 1,004 likely Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Harris holding a 49-43 percent advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead — In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.

The new Emerson College study (for The Hill newspaper; Oct. 22-23; 620 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full 10-point advantage, 51-41 percent. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern. It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid to high 50s.

Nevada: Brown Pulls Even — Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

While the contest has been getting closer with Brown typically shaving half from Sen. Rosen’s previous healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied. Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed Trump leading, 50-46 percent.

House

OH-13: One Point Poll Released — The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill. In ‘22, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47 percent count in what was a better Democratic performance then initially predicted. This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into ballot test parity with Rep. Sykes even though he is being outspent by better than a 3:1 ratio, including the outside money that has entered for both sides.

The late October co/efficient poll (Oct. 22-24; 707 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) gives Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes, 46-45 percent. Likewise, former President Trump leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point. In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US representative, he leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points, 49-46 percent. This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.

Senate Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

Senate

In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota — Though the Minnesota Senate race is not particularly competitive, recent polling has suggested that Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) re-election campaign is a bit closer than one would expect in a state that reliably supports its Democratic incumbents. Four polls of the Minnesota Senate contest were released in September, and Sen. Klobuchar’s average advantage is nine percentage points over former professional basketball player Royce White (R). The margin is moderately strong, but not where one would have expected a virtually uncontested senator in the most loyal Democratic state in presidential election years.

The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.

Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.

This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.

Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.

Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.

Continue reading →

Alsobrooks Continues to Lead in Maryland Senate Race; Missouri Shock Poll Released; Democrats Staked to Large Leads in NH; 2026 Rumors Already Abound in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024

Senate

Angela Alsobrooks (D)

Maryland: Alsobrooks Continues to Lead — Emerson College and The Hill newspaper released the results of their latest Maryland US Senate survey (Sept. 12-13; 890 likely Maryland voters; multiple sampling techniques). According to the polling results, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) again tops former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by a spread beyond the polling margin of error. The ballot test finds Alsobrooks’ advantage at 49-42 percent.

Hogan, while still enjoying very strong personal favorability ratings, even among Democrats, must overcome what will be one of the largest landslide victories for Vice President Kamala Harris of any state. Thus, seeing potentially a 30-point Democratic win at the top of the Maryland ballot makes it extremely difficult for any Republican to overcome such a wave in their down ballot elections.

Missouri: Shock Poll Released — While the Missouri Senate race had been largely ignored for most of the year, we now see three polls released almost simultaneously. The other day, we covered a GQR survey for the Lucas Kunce (D) campaign (Sept. 6-12; 645 likely Missouri voters) which produced a surprisingly close 50-46 percent margin in Sen. Hawley’s favor. (See: Missouri Shock Poll)

Two more surveys followed, each with very different results. Change Research (Sept. 11-13; 1,237 registered Missouri voters; online) sees the Hawley lead at 46-41 percent. Emerson College, polling for The Hill Newspaper (Sept. 12-13; 850 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) produced a much different result. This ballot test posts Sen. Hawley to a 12-point lead over Kunce, 52-40 percent.

Based on Missouri’s voting history within the past 12 years, Sen. Hawley still should be favored, but it is clear this race will be drawing increasing attention as Democrats attempt to expand the Senate map.

House

New Hampshire: Democrats Staked to Large Leads — After the late Sept. 10 primary election, St. Anselm’s College went into the field to test both New Hampshire US House seats, the Eastern 1st District featuring incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), and the open 2nd District, the seat from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring.

The St. Anselm’s polls (Sept. 11-12; 1,111 likely NH-1 voters; 1,130 likely nh-2 voters; online) find Rep. Pappas leading former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott (R) by 12 percentage points, 50-38 percent. In the 2nd District, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander, who was an easy Democratic primary winner, led Republican Lily Tang Williams by a similar 49-38 percent margin. At this point, Democrats appear primed to retain both of New Hampshire’s congressional seats.

Governor

Ohio: 2026 Rumors Already Abound — Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term in 2026, and already political observers are pointing to meetings and movements from potential candidates. Involving themselves in the Springfield, Ohio Haitian migrant controversy, both former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) and ex-representative and 2018 US Senate candidate Jim Renacci (R) are scheduling meetings to encourage positive dialog within the community. Both are considered potential Republican gubernatorial candidates.

Other potential candidates are Lt. Gov. John Husted (R) and Attorney General Dave Yost (R), along with Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Jennifer Brunner, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, and Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval.