Tag Archives: Michigan

Mayor Drops Congressional Bid in Michigan; Special Election in New York; Close Texas Rematch; Polling Flip in West Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 30, 2024

House

Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley / Photo: Spectacle TV

MI-8: Flint Mayor Drops Congressional Bid — The open race to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) just got smaller. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) ended his congressional bid after filing for the seat. The Democratic establishment is coalescing around state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and this, in addition to poor fundraising totals, was relegating Mayor Neeley to the second tier of contenders.

Therefore, the Democratic field has winnowed to Sen. Rivet, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier. On the Republican side, two-time congressional nominee and former television anchor Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, retired Dow Corporation executive Mary Draves, and frequent candidate Anthony Hudson are competing for the nomination.

The open 8th District is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+1, but President Joe Biden carried the seat 50-48 percent while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In practice, however, the Democrats will carry at least a small edge heading into the 2024 general election.

NY-26: Special Election Today — One of the House’s six vacancies will be filled today, and the projected outcome appears clear. New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) resigned the seat in February, and the local New York political parties chose state Sen. Brian Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the Democratic nominee while the GOP selected West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson.

Kennedy is a heavy favorite tonight in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+18. Therefore, it is most probable that the House party division will move to 217R – 213D after the votes are counted this evening with five vacancies (4R -1D) remaining. The 26th District is comprised of the Buffalo metropolitan area and includes parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.

TX-34: Close Texas Rematch — In 2022, due to the Texas redistricting map, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) were forced to run against each other in the new Brownsville-McAllen anchored 34th District. In November of that year, Rep. Gonzalez scored a 53-44 percent victory in the new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+17.

With the political climate changing on the Texas-Mexico border, this district will become more competitive during this election cycle. A new 1892 polling organization survey (April 11-13; 400 likely TX-34 general election voters; live interview) confirms the final result is likely to be closer in 2024. The Gonzalez-Flores ballot test only breaks 48-45 percent in Democrat’s favor, suggesting the campaign could evolve into a toss-up.

On the presidential front, the 1892 pollsters did not ask a direct ballot question. Rather, they phrased a similar query testing which candidate’s border policies are viewed more favorably. The Trump policies were selected in a 51-36 percent margin. It appears this rematch contest will be one to watch in November.

Governor

West Virginia: Polling Flip — The polling in the open West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary has been erratic for several months. After eight consecutive polls showed Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the race in a wide range between one and 19 percentage points, a new NMB Research survey (for West Virginia’s Future PAC; April 20-24; 500 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters) finds former Delegate Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), now assuming the lead.

The ballot test projects a 31-23 percent margin for the top two candidates with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), attracting a 14 percent preference factor, and Secretary of State Mac Warner right behind at 13 percent support.

The West Virginia’s Future PAC is an organization supporting Capito. The poll comes on the heels of Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsing the former Delegate. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14.

Trump Leads in All But One Swing State; Utah GOP Nominating Convention Saturday; Kansas State House Leader Nixes Run

THE SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 26, 2024

President

Bloomberg Swing State Polls: Trump Leading in All But One — Bloomberg News, in partnership with the Morning Consult data organization, conducted presidential polls in all seven of the key swing states during the April 8-13 period. The cumulative data produced very good news for former President Donald Trump, as he is projected to lead in six of the seven states in both head-to-head pairings with President Joe Biden and when the independent and minor candidates are added to the polling questionnaire.

In the one-on-one polling series, Trump leads Biden in a range from one (Pennsylvania) to 10 (North Carolina) percentage points. Only in Michigan does President Biden have an advantage (+2). When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and the minor party candidates are added, which is the more realistic ballot test, Trump’s advantage either holds or grows. Under this scenario, his advantage stretches from one (Pennsylvania) to a whopping 14 percentage points (Nevada). Again, under this configuration, President Biden would lead only in Michigan (+3).

This polling series represents Trump’s strongest cumulative swing state showing of 2024. The polled states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Tomorrow — Utah Republican delegates convene tomorrow at the Salt Palace Convention Center in Salt Lake City to consider a large ticket of primary endorsements, the most important of which are for the open US Senate seat and governor.

In Utah, candidates can qualify for the ballot in one of two ways. The first is to obtain 40 percent of the delegate vote at the state convention. Doing so guarantees a primary ballot line for no more than two candidates. The second way is to petition onto the ballot, which means collecting 28,000 valid registered party members’ signatures for a statewide candidacy. For a US House race, the required signature number is 7,000 within the particular district.

Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman and podcast host Jason Walton have already qualified for the US Senate Republican primary ballot via petition signatures. Therefore, regardless of whether these men receive the 40 percent delegate support necessary to advance to the primary in tomorrow’s convention, they have each secured a ballot line. Attorney Brett Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R), submitted petitions but is approximately 7,000 signatures short of qualifying. Thus, he can access the ballot only through the delegate process tomorrow.

In the governor’s race, the only candidate qualifying through petition is incumbent Gov. Spencer Cox. For the US House, 1st District Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) is the only incumbent to qualify through petition signatures. The state’s other incumbents, Reps. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City), will qualify through the delegate process. No opponent to either Reps. Maloy or Owens has submitted petition signatures.

House

KS-2: Majority Leader Won’t Run for House — Despite indicating interest in running for Congress when Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) announced his retirement last week, Kansas state House Majority Leader Chris Croft (R-Overland Park) yesterday issued a statement saying he will not run.

Croft’s decision is principally due to the fact that his home Overland Park area is fully contained in the 3rd District, thus giving him very little in the way of a political base in District 2. A crowded Republican field is expected to form before the June 1 candidate filing deadline. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+21, the Republican primary winner will become the definitive favorite in the general election.

Pennsylvania Presidential, House Primary Results; Challenger in MI-4; Changes in Virginia’s Governor Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 24, 2024

President

President Joe Biden / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Pennsylvania: Presidential Primary Results — Recently, there has been an uptick in President Joe Biden’s polling numbers, particularly in the critical Great Lakes states, and the turnout pattern in last night’s Pennsylvania primary looks to verify those figures.

While we had consistently seen higher Republican turnout opposite the Democrats in the earlier primary states around the country, yesterday in the Keystone State, approximately 100,000 more Democrats look to have voted than Republicans once all of the cast ballots are recorded. President Biden recorded 88.8 percent in the Democratic primary, while former President Donald Trump took 82.8 percent on the Republican side.

House

Pennsylvania: House Primary Results — In the Pennsylvania congressional races, the most competitive incumbent challenge occurred in the Pittsburgh-anchored 12th District. While challenger Bhavini Patel ran a strong grassroots effort against freshman Rep. Summer Lee (D-Swissvale), the race ended in a projected 60.2 – 39.4 percent split in the congresswoman’s favor. A combination of a major Lee resource advantage and staying away from any emphasis on her being part of the Socialist Democratic caucus’ “Squad,” allowed her to capture a definitive renomination victory.

In terms of challenger races, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Emmaus) defeated technology business owner and 2022 congressional candidate Kevin Dellicker and attorney Maria Montero to win the GOP nomination in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton anchored 7th District. Mackenzie will now advance to the general election to face three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) in what figures to be another competitive campaign. Rep. Wild has averaged only 51.5 percent of the vote in her last two elections. Yesterday’s turnout in this seat proved to be about even between the two parties.

In the 10th District that featured a competitive Democratic primary for the right to challenge veteran Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg), former local news anchor Janelle Stelson outpaced businessman Mike O’Brien and four others to claim the party nomination. Turnout favored the Republicans in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+9. Still, this is another campaign to watch in the coming general election.

MI-4: Rep. Huizenga Draws Primary Challenger — On the last day of candidate filing in Michigan, Ottawa County Republican Party chairman Brendan Muir announced that he will challenge seven-term US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) in the 2024 Republican primary. This is Rep. Huizenga’s first term representing the post-redistricting 4th CD. Prior to the 2022 election, he was the 2nd District incumbent, but that seat was eliminated in reapportionment and redistricting.

Ottawa County, which houses Huizenga’s home city of Holland, is an entity housing just over 300,000 residents. The 4th District portion of Ottawa County — the municipality is split between the 3rd and 4th Districts — is the second largest voting block in the CD behind Kalamazoo County. Rep. Huizenga will be a heavy favorite both for renomination and re-election.

Governor

Virginia: Spanberger Opponent Drops Bid — Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney (D) announced yesterday that he is ending his 2025 bid for governor and instead will enter what is expected to be an open contest for lieutenant governor. The move, at least for the short term, leaves Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Cove) as unopposed for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

Stoney, however, is entering a contested primary for the secondary position. State Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach), a former NFL and UFL football player, also announced his bid for lieutenant governor yesterday. Sen. Rouse, also a former Virginia Beach City Councilman, was elected to the Senate in a special election in early 2023.

Swing State Polling Favors Trump; Sen. Scott’s Strong Lead in Florida; House Open Seat No. 50; A Challenger in Wisconsin’s 1st District

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 22, 2024

President

Swing state poll graphic: NJ.com/Politics

Fox News Polls: Trump Faring Well in Swing State Polling — Fox News just went into the field to test the key swing states for the presidential campaign — Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. To win the presidency, former President Donald Trump must convert Georgia and one of the Great Lakes States at a minimum. Should Trump prevail in Georgia and Pennsylvania, for example, he would have enough Electoral College votes to defeat President Joe Biden so long as he held all 25 states that previously twice voted for him.

All of the polls were conducted from April 11-16 and housed sampling universes comprised of 1,126 to 1,198 registered voters from the aforementioned states. In these polls, Trump would lead President Biden 51-45 percent in Georgia, and 49-46 percent in Michigan, while fighting to a draw at 48-48 percent in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

When Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the minor party candidates are added to the questionnaire, the ballot tests change. While Trump continues to top Biden in Georgia and Michigan under this new configuration, he takes a 44-42-8 percent lead in Pennsylvania. Biden, however, forges ahead in Wisconsin, 43-41-9 percent.

Senate

Florida: Sen. Scott’s Stronger Lead — Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (April 15-17; 815 likely Florida general election voters; text & interactive voice response system) finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) in much stronger shape against presumed Democratic nominee and former Congresswoman Debbie Mursell-Powell. According to the FAU numbers, Sen. Scott scores a 53-36 percent advantage.

Earlier in April, Ipsos Research, for USA Today (April 5-7; 1,014 Florida adults; online) found the senator’s lead at 36-26 percent, though this poll did not isolate registered voters. Emerson College (April 3-7; 608 likely Florida general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported a 45-38 percent ballot test, also in Sen. Scott’s favor.

House

KS-2: Open Seat #50 — Two-term Jayhawk State US Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Topeka) surprisingly announced late last week that he will not seek re-election later this year, and further stated that he would not enter any of the Kansas statewide contests in 2026. Gov. Laura Kelly (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time, and speculation was already surrounding Rep. LaTurner as a possible gubernatorial candidate.

The congressman, at the age of 36, is the youngest Republican House member. Prior to winning the congressional office in 2020, LaTurner had served as Kansas’s State Treasurer and was twice elected to the state Senate.

The LaTurner decision means there are 50 US House seats that will be open for the next election, 25 from the Democratic Conference, 24 from the Republicans, and one newly created district in Alabama. The GOP nominee will be the favorite to hold the seat in November. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+21. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks KS-2 as the 83rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

WI-1: Ex-Congressman to Challenge Rep. Steil — Former Wisconsin Congressman Peter Barca (D), who represented the 1st Congressional District for one term (1993-1995) before losing his seat to Republican Mark Neumann, announced that he will challenge House Administration Committee chairman Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) later this year.

After his congressional defeat, Barca returned to the state Assembly, the body from which he first came to Congress, winning a seat in 2008. He would serve another 10 years before Gov. Tony Evers (D) appointed him Secretary of the Department of Revenue.

The southern Wisconsin 1st District is competitive. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+6, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate only a 49.4R – 48.3D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks WI-1 as the 21st most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Still, Barca will have a difficult time unseating Rep. Steil. From the Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports just released for the period ending March 31, Rep. Steil holds just over $4 million in his campaign account.

New Jersey First Lady Suspends Campaign; Gov. Justice Up in West Virginia Poll; Tight Voting Results in California; Michigan Senate Candidate Moves to House Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: First Lady Suspends Campaign — New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D), who had been fighting with Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) over county Democratic Party endorsements that yield favorable ballot placements, surprisingly has ended her campaign. Murphy said she didn’t want to spend money attacking another Democrat when the funds could be used to help defeat former President Donald Trump.

The more likely reason for her withdrawal decision is failing to see a viable victory path after falling behind Rep. Kim in early polling. Additionally, Kim’s lawsuit against the state for the county ballot placement system that awards a favorable line position might well be successful, thus derailing the advantage she gained by winning endorsements in several entities. The development makes Rep. Kim a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to winning the general election.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Way Up in GOP Primary Poll — Emerson College, polling for WOWK-13 television station in the Charleston-Huntington market (March 19-21; 735 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Gov. Jim Justice holding a commanding 54-17 percent lead over US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with the West Virginia primary now seven weeks away on May 14. Without incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the race, the eventual GOP nominee becomes a heavy favorite to convert the seat in the general election.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) also enjoys a GOP primary advantage according to the same poll. Morrisey holds a 33-16-14-6 percent advantage over businessman Chris Miller, former state Delegate Moore Capito, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively. Miller is the son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), while Capito is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-WV) son. Here, too, the eventual Republican nominee will be a virtual lock to win the general election.

House

California: CA-45 Set, Down to One Vote in North — With still 17 days remaining in the California election certification process, another congressional finalist has clinched a general election ballot position. With virtually all of the votes finally tabulated, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza yesterday ended her fight for the second qualifying position, conceding the vote to attorney Derek Tran. The race came down to a spread of just 366 votes between the two candidates, or a percentage spread of 15.9 – 15.6.

US Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County), on the ballot for a third term, easily captured the first general election ballot position with a 54.9 percent showing. While Rep. Steel is in good position to begin the general election campaign, the 45th CD leans Democratic at D+5 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, plan for a highly contested congressional battle here in political prime time.

A few more votes were released in the nip-and-tuck open 16th Congressional District and San Mateo County Supervisor and ex-state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) saw his lead over Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) shrink from four votes to only one, 30,229 to 30,228. The eventual second-place qualifier faces former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who locked down first place with 38,464 votes or 21.1 percent of the jungle primary total. Should Simitian and Low end in a flat tie, both would advance into the general election, thus leading to a three-way general election campaign.

MI-8: Senate Candidate Moves to House Race — State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder (R), who was the first person to declare for the open Senate race after incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she would retire, never saw her campaign generate excitement or significant support. Therefore, Snyder announced that she is ending her Senate quest and will instead enter the Republican primary for the open 8th Congressional District.

There, Snyder will join two time congressional candidate and former news anchor Paul Junge in the GOP primary. Snyder is also not the first candidate to switch from the Senate race to this congressional contest. Earlier, State Board of Education president Pamela Pugh (D) made the change soon after six-term incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) announced that he would not seek re-election.

The 8th District will feature a hard-fought and tough election cycle. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the central Michigan 8th CD as R+1. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin.

Biden, Trump Romp in Michigan; Baldwin Ahead in Wisconsin; New Redistricting Map in NY; The Attempt to Get Rep. Green to “Un-retire”

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024

President

Michigan: Primary Results — As expected, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages in winning last night’s respective Democratic and Republican Michigan presidential primary elections.

President Biden recorded 81.1 percent of the Democratic vote, though just under 14 percent voted for the Uncommitted Delegate Slate. US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Democratic voters to choose that option as a way to protest President Biden’s position regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. For the Republicans, Trump attracted 68.2 percent of the GOP vote, again consistent with the result most pollsters predicted. Overall turnout favored Republicans approximately 1.13 million to about 778,000 individuals.

The Wolverine State primary represents the final installment of the pre-Super Tuesday voting events. The next primaries will occur on March 5 where 16 entities will cast primary or caucus ballots in either Democratic or Republican nomination events.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin +7 Over Hovde — Businessman Eric Hovde (R) announced his US Senate candidacy in the Badger State last week, and this week we see the first polling pairing with two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). Emerson College released their latest Wisconsin survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the sampling universe would support Donald Trump 44-42 percent, Democratic incumbent Baldwin would lead the Senate race 46-39 percent.

The poll might look more encouraging for Republicans at first glance since Sen. Baldwin is under 50 percent and has only a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. The polling universe, however, features more Republicans than Democrats, 35-33 percent with an additional 32 percent responding as non-affiliated. Though Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, voter history suggests that the poll, though weighted to reflect the actual electorate, appears to have a slight Republican skew.

House

New York: Dems Unveil New Cong Map — The Democratic super majority in the state Assembly and Senate unveiled a new congressional map that surprised many, but in retrospect the plan is an indication the party leaders knew they would face tough going on a legal challenge if they stretched their partisan interests much further.

As reported earlier, the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the court created for the 2022 election. Though that map only gave Republicans a clear partisan plurality in just three of the state’s 26 seats according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the GOP candidates won 11 races. The Citizens Commission members left the court footprint largely intact, which the legislature then rejected. When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission adopted plans.

The surprising end to this story is the legislature’s own map is another “least change” map from the court’s original footprint, which very likely means that the 2024 New York congressional playing field will be almost identical to what we saw in 2022.

TN-7: Delegation Attempting to Convince Rep. Green to “Un-retire” — So far in this election cycle, we’ve seen two US House members, Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN), announce their retirements only to change their mind and seek re-election. We may soon have a third. Public reports are coming from Tennessee where the Republican congressional delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) who previously represented the 7th District during her career in the House, are publicly encouraging Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, to change his mind about retiring. Last week, Rep. Green announced he would not seek a fourth term.

The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 4 for the Aug. 1 primary, so it is possible we may soon see one less open House seat.

Michigan Presidential Primaries Today; Surprising Maine Poll; Michigan GOP Candidate Leading; NY Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024

President

Michigan: Presidential Primaries Today — The presidential nomination process moves to Michigan today, and Wolverine State voters of both parties will cast delegate apportioning votes. It is clear that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will win their respective primaries, and by large majorities.

Michigan presidential Primaries underway today; is former President Donald Trump besting President Joe Biden in a new Maine poll?

The Emerson College survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Biden posting a whopping 75-5 percent lead over US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). A total of nine percent report planning to vote for the Uncommitted Slate, the move that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Michigan voters to take in order to protest the Biden’s pro-Israel policy. On the Republican side, Trump records a 69-20 percent lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Both men are already in the “presumptive nominee” sphere.

Maine: Shock Poll; Trump Leads in General — A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, Maine. The poll (Feb. 6-14; 836 Maine adults; 791 Maine likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates. The numbers find Trump leading the Biden 38-32 percent with 21 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his large 20-point lead in the 2nd Congressional District. He would trail Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points. Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Biden, one.

Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens. According to this data, the Biden’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61 percent favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.

Senate

Michigan: New GOP Poll Posts Ex-Rep. Rogers to Primary Lead — A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and becomes the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race. The study (Feb. 19-22; 600 likely Michigan primary voters) finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7 percent Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer.

Another former congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so. The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until Aug. 6. The eventual Republican Senate nominee will very likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

New York: Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map — Yesterday, both chambers of the New York state legislature rejected the Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional plan that made few changes to the court-imposed map of 2022. It is clear that the Democratic legislature wants to draw a political footprint more favorable for their party but will do so under what will be an almost guaranteed partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

The state Senate then passed a bill attempting to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, listing the most populous and Democratic counties in the state. Republicans claim that such a maneuver will be ruled unconstitutional.

While the Democrats may have won this latest New York redistricting round, the fight is a long way from culmination.