Tag Archives: Michigan

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.


Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

Pete Buttigieg Leads in Michigan Democratic Primary Senate Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025

Senate

Former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg / Photo by Matt Johnson

A new Michigan Democratic primary poll suggests that former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is the man to beat for the party nomination to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D).

The Blueprint Polling firm tested a likely Michigan Democratic voting segment (Jan. 30-Feb. 2; 536 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; SMS text) and sees Buttigieg topping Attorney General Dana Nessel 40-16 percent in a hypothetical 2026 primary poll. Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids), and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak Township) all trail “in low single digits,” according to the Blueprint analysis.

Sen. McMorrow is the only individual who has formally announced for the Senate from either party, but the aforementioned have all confirmed they are considering entering the race. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest (D) was included in this poll but last week announced that he will not run for the Senate. He is projected as virtually certain to enter the open Governor’s contest.

Buttigieg has the highest name identification and favorability index of the tested potential contenders within this Democratic sampling universe. He posts 88 percent name recognition with a 77:12 favorable to unfavorable split. Attorney General Nessel is close behind with an 82 percent name recognition score and a similar 72:10 positive index. A total of 56 percent questioned could identify Lt. Gov. Gilcrest, and 45 percent responded with a favorable impression. The remaining potential candidates all had low statewide name ID.

Buttigieg does particularly well with white Democrats (47-16 percent over Nessel), the highly educated (47-15 percent versus Nessel), liberals (47-18 percent against Nessel), and non-union workers (44-14 percent opposite Nessel). The former Transportation Secretary fared poorly with blacks, however, trailing both Nessel and Gilcrest (22-19-16 percent).

Sen. McMorrow and the two Representatives, should either or both enter the statewide race, would have a long way to go in becoming competitive for the nomination. Tested against AG Nessel, Rep. Stevens would even lose her own 11th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, while Rep. Scholten would lead Nessel 28-21 percent in her 3rd CD but trails badly elsewhere. Sen. McMorrow lags seven points behind AG Nessel among those who know and have an opinion of both women.

According to the Blueprint analysis scenarios, Buttigieg would be in an enviable position for the Democratic Party nomination should he become a Senate candidate. The pollsters conclude, “Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters and white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination.”

The Blueprint pollsters did not test any of the Democratic candidates against prospective Republican candidates such as former Congressman Mike Rogers, who came within 19,006 votes of winning the state’s other Senate seat in the 2024 election.

With Buttigieg faring poorly with black voters and considering that now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) is more popular than the former Transportation Secretary with the general electorate, it appears Rogers would be in strong position should he mount another attempt in the coming midterm election.

Previously, Republicans as a whole tended to fare better in midterm elections when compared to their presidential year performance, but considering the changing dynamics within the Michigan and national electorates such may no longer be the case. It does appear that the country is entering a realignment phase, but it will take at least two more elections to see if such change becomes a trend or is merely an anomaly found only in 2024.

Irrespective of who becomes the eventual Michigan US Senate nominees, the open Wolverine State race will be one of the top targets for both national parties.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters to Retire; Florida Special Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D)

Saying, “I always thought there would be a time that I would step aside and pass the reins for the next generation,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) announced yesterday that he will not seek re-election to a fourth term next year. This is the first surprise political decision of the new political cycle.

The move is reminiscent of the 2024 election cycle, when another Michigan Senator, Debbie Stabenow (D), became the first incumbent to announce that she would retire. Sen. Peters, 66, also said that he “…never saw service in Congress as something you do your whole life.” The Senator’s comments suggest that he would venture into another type of livelihood potentially in the private sector.

The Peters retirement makes Michigan the political hotbed of the early 2026 election cycle. Not only will we see a competitive open Senate race here, as was the case in 2024, but the open Governor’s contest could feature a wild three-way political battle largely because Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan announced his candidacy as an Independent.

The Duggan entry enhances Republican prospects to win the Governor’s race because their nominee could take advantage of a split in the Democratic coalition, thus allowing the GOP candidate to win with plurality support. Until the coming election, Duggan had been a Democrat and is, of course, known as such in the state’s largest city where he has won three at-large elections.

Hosting two major competitive statewide races will certainly change the Michigan political landscape since many officeholders from both parties could enter each of these campaigns. In addition to Duggan entering the Governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) last week declared for the Democratic Party nomination.

Turning to the Republicans, former state Attorney General Mike Cox has been making serious moves to enter the Governor’s race but has yet to formally announce his intentions.

Now, we can expect other statewide officials and US House members to be assessing their chances for what will be two major statewide campaigns with national implications. Watch for Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilcrest to make a move for one of the two slots, probably Governor. Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) is another who could be well positioned to make a move toward running for Governor or now Senate.

Within the Democratic congressional delegation, look for Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and possibly Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) to test the statewide political waters. Early reports suggest that former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is also beginning to study his potential of competing in an open Michigan Senate contest.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate election by just three-tenths of one percentage point must be considered at the top of the 2026 Senate prospect lists. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who lost to Sen. Peters in 2020 with a small 49.9 – 48.2 percent vote margin and is already being discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate, is likely to again consider running statewide. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is another GOP House member who will probably analyze his prospects for one of the statewide races.

Sen. Peters began his elected office career by winning a seat on the Rochester Hills City Council in 1991. He was then elected to the state Senate and US House before winning the US Senate seat in 2014, succeeding 36-year veteran Sen. Carl Levin (D) who chose not to seek a seventh term.

Florida Special Election Results

As expected, Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, bearing endorsements from President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), easily won the 1st District special Republican primary, which is the first step toward replacing resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Patronis captured 66 percent of the vote against nine Republican opponents. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to defeat the Democratic nominee, Gay Valimont.

In the Atlantic coastal 6th CD, also as expected, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) was an overwhelming winner in this special Republican primary election. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine had the public support of President Trump and Sen. Scott, among many other GOP leaders. He topped the field of two opponents with an 83 percent vote total. Sen. Fine is now a heavy favorite to win the special general election.

Both the 1st and 6th District special general elections are scheduled for April 1.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.