Tag Archives: Michigan

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

Rep. Thanedar Loses in Michigan;
Edwards Out in NC-11;
Tennessee Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 6, 2026

MI-13

Michigan state Rep. Donovan McKinney

A day after the Michigan primary, the lone uncalled race yielded the eighth renomination defeat for an incumbent House member this year. With virtually all ballots counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) was declared a 52-48 percent winner over two-term Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit). The total turnout figure will exceed 112,000 when the voting totals become official, which is high for the district.

Rep. Thanedar was first elected in 2022 with only 28 percent of the vote in the Democratic plurality primary topping eight opponents including then-state Sen. Adam Hollier who placed second. Hollier announced a rematch challenge in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient valid petition signatures. Rep. Thanedar then won the primary with 54 percent of the vote. In the 2026 race, Rep. Thanedar faced state Rep. McKinney in a one-on-one battle.

Of the eight US House members defeated for renomination, Rep. Thanedar became the sixth Democrat to lose prior to the general election.

The House open-seat count rises to 70 with the Thanedar defeat and scandal tainted North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock/Asheville) withdrawing in yesterday’s early morning hours.

Of the 70, a total of 37 open seats are currently under Republican control, 28 are Democratic, and five new districts were created through state redraws in California, Florida, Texas, and Utah.

Two of the open seats are vacant and going to special election. California’s 14th District (Rep. Eric Swalwell-D resigning) and Georgia’s 13th CD (death of Rep. David Scott-D) will be filled in special elections on Aug. 18 (CA-14) and Aug. 25 (GA-13). Democrats will hold both seats.

Two more seats, FL-20 (Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick-D resigned) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales-R resigned), are vacant. Neither Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) nor Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has scheduled replacement special elections.

NC-11

As mentioned, two-term Rep. Edwards has officially withdrawn from his re-election campaign. The North Carolina Republican Party Executive Committee now will choose a replacement on the 2026 general election ballot.

Whoever is selected must quickly mount a districtwide campaign against an able Democratic opponent, agribusinessman Jamie Ager, the grandson of former 11th District Democratic Congressman James McClure Clarke who served in the 1980s. Clarke won three terms but lost two re-election campaigns in a western North Carolina district that repeatedly flipped between the parties.

Two prominent names being mentioned as possible replacements are state Sens. Kevin Corbin (R-Franklin) and Tim Moffitt (R-Henderson County). Both men also previously served in the state House of Representatives. More to come on this developing situation.

Tennessee Primary

The Volunteer State holds the nation’s only Thursday primary today, and the Governor’s race is drawing the most attention. Here, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who does not have to risk her seat to run for Governor, is favored to win the Republican nomination tonight.

Her principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). While the Senator continues to lead in all polling, her initial dominant advantage is dissipating to a degree. She is still comfortably ahead, but the victory margin may not be quite as strong as originally portrayed.

On the ballot for a second US Senate term is incumbent Bill Hagerty (R). The Senator is unopposed tonight and expects to have an easy ride in the general election.

The new Tennessee congressional map will be in effect for this election. The major change affects the Memphis area and veteran Rep. Steve Cohen (D) is retiring. After the redistricting plan was enacted after the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana case that answered the racial gerrymandering questions, the 9th District was changed from a Memphis-anchored seat fully contained within Shelby County to one that stretches almost to Nashville. With the new Republican 9th District partisan lean, Rep. Cohen declared that he could not run a credible re-election campaign.

Rep. Rose’s open 6th District will be decided in the Republican primary tonight with the winner becoming the prohibitive favorite in the general election. The two key contenders are former Congressman and statewide nominee Van Hilleary, who served as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, and state House Majority Whip Johnny Garrett (R-Goodlettsville). This campaign has turned negative with both candidates using controversial AI ads.

The member facing the strongest renomination opponent is two-term Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia). The new 5th District stretches from its traditional population anchor in Davidson and Williamson counties to surround the 8th District on three sides and now borders Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, and Mississippi. The new 5th also includes downtown Memphis.

Rep. Ogles, who has been tainted with a campaign finance scandal, faces former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher tonight. A close result is expected.
All nine of the state’s congressional seats are now expected to elect a Republican meaning the national GOP will gain one new member in the Volunteer State delegation.

El-Sayed’s Close Primary Win;
Results Wrap-Up From Four States

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

The marquee race of the Aug. 4 primary night – the Michigan Senate Democratic primary race – came down to a small number of votes, which defied the polling projections. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El-Sayed was projected late last night as a close winner over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham). The night began with El-Sayed initially tallying up a large lead, but Stevens consistently chipped away until the final El-Sayed margin should be approximately 20,000 votes from more than 1.4 million Democratic primary votes cast.

Nine different July pollsters all forecast a large El-Sayed lead, one where he was averaging just under a 15-percentage point advantage, but the final margin proved razor thin. Abdul El-Sayed now faces former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Michigan general election is likely to be the key to which party will hold the Senate majority in the new Congress.

Kansas

The open Governor’s race for both parties was the premier draw in last night’s Kansas primary. State Senate President Ty Masterson (R-Andover) was an easy winner for the Republicans, who are aiming to convert the Governor’s office back to their party after what will be eight years of Democratic control under term-limited state chief executive Laura Kelly.

On the Democratic side in a battle between two state Senators, Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) defeated Gov. Kelly’s endorsed candidate, Ethan Corson (D-Prairie Village). The general election is expected to be competitive. Republican primary turnout exceeded the Democratic numbers, which gives Sen. Masterson a boost as the candidates turn toward November.

Michigan

Beyond the close Senate race, voters chose nominees in the Governor’s campaign. As predicted, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson recorded a landslide victory in the Democratic primary. For the Republicans, Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice come close in statewide campaigns, won the party nomination with just over 50 percent of the vote against three Republican candidates, though one of them ended his active campaign last week.

Looking at the state’s voting history and the strong Democratic primary turnout as compared to the Republican number, Benson will begin the general election race as the favorite.

In the House races, we first look toward the western 4th District. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) will attract more than 80 percent of the final Republican primary vote. His opponent, as expected for the competitive general election, is state Sen. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo), an easy Democratic primary winner.

In the 7th District, which is likely to be the most competitive race in the general election, freshman Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Charlotte/Lansing) was unopposed for renomination. His general election opponent will be political activist William Lawrence who scored a 43 percent Democratic primary victory over former US Ambassador Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

In the open 10th District that Rep. James vacated to run for Governor, National Guard officer and Iraq War veteran Michael Bouchard Jr., son of the long-time Oakland County Sheriff and ex-statewide candidate, recorded a 73 percent victory over three Republican opponents. For the Democrats, in what promises to be a very tight general election, former Macomb County Prosecutor nominee Christina Hines defeated two Democratic opponents with 46 percent of the vote.

Turning to Rep. Stevens’ open 11th District, state Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss captured 41 percent of the vote against three Democratic opponents to clinch the party nomination. He now becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the general election in a safely Democratic seat.

The 13th District Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) could end in deposing the incumbent. With just under half the vote counted, state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D-Detroit) leads Rep. Thanedar, 51-49 percent, in a race that is still too close to call.

Missouri

With no Senate or Governor’s race on the ballot, the US House races led the ballot.

In the 1st District, former Congresswoman Cori Bush launched a political comeback attempt against the man who defeated her in the 2024 Democratic primary, current Congressman Wesley Bell (D-St. Louis).

Last night, Rep. Bell posted a strong 59-37 percent victory over the former Congresswoman and “Squad” member. Winning the Democratic primary in this St. Louis district is tantamount to claiming the general election, so Rep. Bell is virtually guaranteed re-election in November.

In the redistricted 5th CD, state Sen. Rick Brattin (R-Kansas City) was the clear Republican primary winner. He will now face Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City) in a district that does not resemble the downtown Kansas City seat that the Congressman has represented since the beginning of 2005. Now the 5th District is a Republican seat that stretches into the state’s rural areas, and Rep. Cleaver must be considered an underdog for the general election.

The MO-5 race now becomes a must-win Republican campaign if the GOP is to have a chance at holding their slim national majority.

The open 6th District was decided last night in the Republican primary. There, radio talk show host Chris Stigall, who carried retiring 13-term Congressman Sam Graves’ (R-Tarkio) endorsement, won last night’s Republican primary with 44 percent of the vote over four Republican opponents. Stigall will cruise to victory in the general election from this safe Republican northwestern Missouri congressional seat.

Virginia

In the US Senate race, Republicans chose retired Army Major General Bert Mizusawa to oppose Sen. Mark Warner (D) who is on the ballot for a fourth term. The Senator had no Democratic opposition. Sen. Warner is expected to glide to another November victory. The Senator says this new term will be his last as he will not seek re-election in 2032.

No surprises in the key competitive House races. In the 1st District, Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor easily won the Democratic primary against six Democratic opponents. Taylor will now challenge veteran Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) in the general election.

In the Tidewater-anchored 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria won a landslide Democratic primary victory opposite three opponents. The Luria victory sets up a rematch of the 2022 campaign between she and two-term Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach).

In the mid-state 5th District, another former House member is attempting a political comeback. Former Rep. Tom Perriello scored a big Democratic primary win and will now challenge freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) who also won renomination in a landslide proportion. In a good sign for Rep. McGuire, Republican primary turnout far exceeded his Democratic counterparts’ participation figure.

In the Alexandria-Arlington 8th District, veteran Rep. Don Beyer (D-Alexandria) won renomination with two-thirds of the Democratic primary vote against four opponents.

Washington

The all-mail Washington ballots were reported quickly, because the state election officials allow the counting and release of the vote totals after the polls close. Therefore, result reporting is quick. Approximately 50 percent of the projected vote total came through early voting.

In the 3rd District, with under 60 percent of the vote counted, it is clear that Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Skamania County) and state Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R-Chehalis) will advance to the general election. The early vote totals have Rep. Perez and Sen. Braun virtually even, again suggesting that this will be a premier general election campaign and a likely must-win for the GOP if they are to hold the majority.

The open 4th District sees Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney (R) and retired Air Force officer John Duresky advancing to the general election. The open 4th District (Rep. Dan Newhouse-R retiring) is one of two safe Republican seats in the state. This gives McKinney the clear inside track to claiming the general election in November.

In the Spokane-anchored 5th District, freshman Rep. Michael Baumgartner (R-Spokane) captured just about 50 percent of the early vote and has clinched the first general election slot. It appears that Democratic retired US diplomat Carmela Conroy will also advance. Rep. Baumgartner will be favored for re-election.

Michigan Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 3, 2026

Primary

This week, six states are holding their 2026 primary elections, but none is more active than tomorrow’s Michigan nomination contests.

Today, we highlight the Wolverine State’s key races. Tomorrow, we will preview the Aug. 4 primaries in Missouri, Washington, and Virginia. On Thursday, Aug. 6, Tennessee voters choose their nominees, and on Saturday, Aug. 9, Hawaii follows.

The marquee Michigan race is the Democratic US Senate primary. Former Wayne County Health/Human/Veterans Department director Abdul El‑Sayed faces Congresswoman Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham).

Although Democratic leaders have rallied around Stevens since state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) exited the race in early July, El‑Sayed holds a commanding advantage in public polling. Across the last eight publicly released surveys, from eight different pollsters, El‑Sayed’s average lead is 14.9 percentage points.

Tomorrow’s winner faces former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers, who is virtually unencumbered in the Republican primary.

The gubernatorial primaries are less dramatic. On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the clear favorite and is expected to cruise to the nomination.

For Republicans, Congressman John James (R‑Farmington Hills), who previously ran two close statewide races, leads businessman and frequent candidate Perry Johnson. A Benson-James general election matchup is the anticipated outcome. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan had previously launched an Independent bid that would have created an intriguing three‑way race, but he suspended his campaign in late May.

Michigan also features a full slate of competitive congressional primaries. In the 4th District, where Congressman Bill Huizenga (R‑Holland) faces a competitive general election, Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann (D‑Kalamazoo) is likely to prevail with his party’s nomination, setting up what promises to be a closely watched November contest.

The 7th CD is likely to host the fiercest campaign in the delegation. Freshman Congressman Tom Barrett (R‑Charlotte/ Lansing) will defend his seat against one of three Democratic contenders: political organizer William Lawrence, retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink.

The 8th District will also be competitive. Freshman Bay City Democrat Kristin MacDonald Rivet seeks a second term and is unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans have a three‑way contest, with former US Postal Service Inspector and Navy veteran Amir Hassan, who has raised roughly $800,000 and holds President Trump’s endorsement, favored to win. Rep. Rivet remains the favorite for re‑election, though GOP efforts may intensify after the primary.

The open 10th District promises a highly contested general election. Congressman James is vacating the seat to run for Governor, having twice won close races in this politically swing district. The leading Republican is Mike Bouchard Jr., son of longtime Oakland County Sheriff and former statewide nominee Michael Bouchard, Sr.

With strong name recognition, Bouchard Jr. is expected to win the GOP nomination. He will face one of three Democratic candidates: former US Commerce Department official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-Macomb County local office nominee Christina Hines who has led in several polls.

In District 11, which Congresswoman Stevens is vacating to run for the Senate, the decisive contest is the Democratic primary; therefore, tomorrow’s winner will claim the seat in November. State Senate President Pro Tempore Jeremy Moss (D-Southfield) is favored over three opponents.

District 13, anchored in Detroit, again features Congressman Shri Thanedar (D‑Detroit) facing a Democratic primary battle. Rep. Thanedar is seeking a third term, and his principal challenger is state Representative Donovan McKinney (D‑Detroit). Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters failed to qualify for the ballot due to insufficient petition signatures but is running as a write‑in candidate. The Thanedar-McKinney contest will be close, with the winner headed to Washington after November.

As these races illustrate, Michigan’s election card is full, and tomorrow night’s coverage will be extensive with the Democratic Senate primary as the headline attraction.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

The Point Race: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Senate

On election night, Nov. 3, the Michigan Senate race is likely to offer one of the earliest and clearest signals about the direction of the Senate majority. If Republican Mike Rogers wins, it would strongly suggest that the GOP is positioned to retain its current majority. If the Democratic nominee prevails, it would re-open the path for Democrats to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

As you know, Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 45, plus two Independents who caucus with the Democrats, bringing their total to 47. At present, Democrats are favored to convert the open North Carolina seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis.

If they hold Michigan and flip North Carolina, they would still need three additional seats to reach majority control. If they lose Michigan, the conversion requirement rises to four, likely putting the majority out of reach for this election.

The Michigan primary is fast approaching on Aug. 4, and the final shape of the race may still produce a razor‑thin outcome, but now between just two contenders.

Last week, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak) suspended her campaign largely due to lagging polling. Her exit leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services director Abdul El‑Sayed as the principal Democratic contenders.

A month ago, all three candidates were polling competitively and had comparable financial resources. Since then, movement has shifted toward Rep. Stevens after Dr. El‑Sayed held early leads in several surveys.

This week, retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D), previously neutral in the race to succeed him, endorsed Stevens. Additional Democratic establishment figures have followed suit. Dr. El‑Sayed responded by emphasizing his outsider status, saying, “this is the establishment backing the establishment.”

Mike Rogers, the former seven‑term Congressman, will again be the Republican nominee. He lost the open 2024 Senate race to current incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D) by just three‑tenths of a percentage point – 19,006 votes out of more than 5.58 million cast. Viewed as an underdog for much of that campaign, Rogers surged late as polling tightened and ultimately finished with a narrow loss after leading through much of the vote count.

His biggest challenge in 2024 was fundraising; Slotkin outspent him by more than a 4:1 ratio. Outside groups helped narrow the gap, but she maintained a decisive resource advantage. That dynamic has changed in 2026. Rogers, largely unencumbered in the Republican primary and buoyed by his strong 2024 finish, is now at financial parity with the Democrats and holds a stronger cash‑on‑hand position because his opponents have spent heavily in their nomination fight.

Polling shows Rogers performing slightly better against Rep. Stevens than against Dr. El‑Sayed, though all matchups remain close. Aggregate polling sites – Real Clear Politics, Race to the White House, and 270toWin – show Dr. El‑Sayed with small average leads between 0.5 and 2.5 points.

Rep. Stevens holds average leads between 0.5 and 1.3 points, though her overall margin is inflated by a single outlier survey from TIPP Insights (May 20–23; 1,456 registered Michigan voters; online) showing her ahead by seven points. Rogers has led Stevens in four of the nine 2026 surveys that isolate the pair.

The general election promises to be hard‑fought, intensely competitive, and close. The outcome will be highly consequential and may offer an early indication of broader trends in the remaining Senate contests.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Virginians Vote; Opposite Polls

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Virginia

Today marks the final voting day for the Virginia redistricting referendum. The voters are deciding whether to change the current Old Dominion congressional map from a 6 Democrat/5 Republican split into a gerrymandered plan designed to elect 10 Democrats and one Republican. The measure will likely pass.

The Republicans surprisingly haven’t put up much of a fight considering a four-seat loss in Virginia would substantially decrease the chances of holding their slim five-seat House majority. Democrats, on the other hand, have dominated the airwaves with their ads supporting a “yes” vote on the referendum (see video at top).

The polling suggests the outcome will be a bit closer than the advertising medium suggests (State Navigate; Aril 10-13; 707 likely Virginia voters; 51-45 percent Yes; Washington Post/George Mason University; March 26-31; 1,101 likely Virginia voters; 52-47 percent Yes). Spending on this referendum is completely lopsided with an approximate expenditure ratio of 11:1 in the Democrats’ favor.

Republicans are hopeful that the state Supreme Court, which is hearing an appeal regarding a lower court judge’s earlier ruling that the entire referendum process is invalid because the legislature violated their own rules in qualifying the special election vote, will uphold the previous decision and declare the referendum invalid. The justices have yet to render a final decision but allowed the referendum vote to continue.

It is difficult to see a panel of judges overturning a vote of the people assuming the “yes” position is victorious. Therefore, Democrats will likely be successful in getting the designed 10 Virginia seats. Doing so will go a long way toward achieving the party goal of flipping the Republicans’ slim House majority.

Opposite Polls

The polling industry has absorbed some attacks regarding its cumulative accuracy rate over the past few years and recent polls from Alabama and Michigan underscore that polling is not an exact science.

Part of the problem is how survey research is used. Polling should be thought of as a guide monitoring candidate momentum swings rather than an instrument that tallies exact ballot test numbers.

Sometimes we see situations where polls conducted of the same race during relatively the same time period can produce very different ballot test results.

A good example of this is found in recent surveys from the Alabama Senate and Michigan Governor’s campaigns, both in Republican primaries.

In the Michigan Governor’s contest, we see two recent polls yielding virtually opposite ballot test results. During the April 11-13 period, Emerson College released their poll projecting businessman Perry Johnson to be at parity with Congressman John James (R-Farmington Hills), in fact leading by a slim 21 to 20 percent margin. This is the first such poll that finds Rep. Jones, also a two-time statewide Republican nominee, trailing in the 2026 gubernatorial primary.

Conversely, the OnMessage polling firm, surveying for the James campaign, sees their candidate in the top position with a big lead. According to OnMessage, James has a wide 41 to 18 percent lead over Johnson. While the Emerson College poll was conducted during the April 11-13 period, the OnMessage survey was in the field during the stretch between April 15-18.

It is hard to fathom, however, that the race could have changed to such a great degree in this short time period. Therefore, one of these polls, and probably the Emerson College survey, has badly missed the mark.

In the Alabama Senate Republican primary, we see a similar situation. During the April 11-13 period, Peak Insights released a survey showing Congressman Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) holding a 34-16-12 percent lead over Alabama attorney general Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson.

Yet, during almost the identical time frame, April 11-14 in this case, the Tarrance Group also surveyed the Republican electorate and found a much closer result with Moore recording only a slight 28-27-24 percent margin over Marshall and Hudson, respectively.

So again, we see two polls commissioned almost simultaneously and sampling within the same macro campaign universe but arriving at very different ballot test results. These results underscore that polling is not exact and that anomalies do frequently happen.

The Alabama and Michigan examples, though relatively extreme, show us that polling again should be looked at simply as a way to judge candidates’ momentum as opposed to precisely pinpointing where they stand in relation to a projected election outcome.