Tag Archives: Michigan

New Jersey First Lady Suspends Campaign; Gov. Justice Up in West Virginia Poll; Tight Voting Results in California; Michigan Senate Candidate Moves to House Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: First Lady Suspends Campaign — New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D), who had been fighting with Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) over county Democratic Party endorsements that yield favorable ballot placements, surprisingly has ended her campaign. Murphy said she didn’t want to spend money attacking another Democrat when the funds could be used to help defeat former President Donald Trump.

The more likely reason for her withdrawal decision is failing to see a viable victory path after falling behind Rep. Kim in early polling. Additionally, Kim’s lawsuit against the state for the county ballot placement system that awards a favorable line position might well be successful, thus derailing the advantage she gained by winning endorsements in several entities. The development makes Rep. Kim a prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to winning the general election.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Way Up in GOP Primary Poll — Emerson College, polling for WOWK-13 television station in the Charleston-Huntington market (March 19-21; 735 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Gov. Jim Justice holding a commanding 54-17 percent lead over US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) with the West Virginia primary now seven weeks away on May 14. Without incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the race, the eventual GOP nominee becomes a heavy favorite to convert the seat in the general election.

In the governor’s race, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) also enjoys a GOP primary advantage according to the same poll. Morrisey holds a 33-16-14-6 percent advantage over businessman Chris Miller, former state Delegate Moore Capito, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively. Miller is the son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), while Capito is Sen. Shelley Moore Capito’s (R-WV) son. Here, too, the eventual Republican nominee will be a virtual lock to win the general election.

House

California: CA-45 Set, Down to One Vote in North — With still 17 days remaining in the California election certification process, another congressional finalist has clinched a general election ballot position. With virtually all of the votes finally tabulated, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen-Penaloza yesterday ended her fight for the second qualifying position, conceding the vote to attorney Derek Tran. The race came down to a spread of just 366 votes between the two candidates, or a percentage spread of 15.9 – 15.6.

US Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County), on the ballot for a third term, easily captured the first general election ballot position with a 54.9 percent showing. While Rep. Steel is in good position to begin the general election campaign, the 45th CD leans Democratic at D+5 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Therefore, plan for a highly contested congressional battle here in political prime time.

A few more votes were released in the nip-and-tuck open 16th Congressional District and San Mateo County Supervisor and ex-state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) saw his lead over Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) shrink from four votes to only one, 30,229 to 30,228. The eventual second-place qualifier faces former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) who locked down first place with 38,464 votes or 21.1 percent of the jungle primary total. Should Simitian and Low end in a flat tie, both would advance into the general election, thus leading to a three-way general election campaign.

MI-8: Senate Candidate Moves to House Race — State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder (R), who was the first person to declare for the open Senate race after incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she would retire, never saw her campaign generate excitement or significant support. Therefore, Snyder announced that she is ending her Senate quest and will instead enter the Republican primary for the open 8th Congressional District.

There, Snyder will join two time congressional candidate and former news anchor Paul Junge in the GOP primary. Snyder is also not the first candidate to switch from the Senate race to this congressional contest. Earlier, State Board of Education president Pamela Pugh (D) made the change soon after six-term incumbent Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) announced that he would not seek re-election.

The 8th District will feature a hard-fought and tough election cycle. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the central Michigan 8th CD as R+1. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin.

Biden, Trump Romp in Michigan; Baldwin Ahead in Wisconsin; New Redistricting Map in NY; The Attempt to Get Rep. Green to “Un-retire”

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024

President

Michigan: Primary Results — As expected, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily captured large percentages in winning last night’s respective Democratic and Republican Michigan presidential primary elections.

President Biden recorded 81.1 percent of the Democratic vote, though just under 14 percent voted for the Uncommitted Delegate Slate. US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Democratic voters to choose that option as a way to protest President Biden’s position regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. For the Republicans, Trump attracted 68.2 percent of the GOP vote, again consistent with the result most pollsters predicted. Overall turnout favored Republicans approximately 1.13 million to about 778,000 individuals.

The Wolverine State primary represents the final installment of the pre-Super Tuesday voting events. The next primaries will occur on March 5 where 16 entities will cast primary or caucus ballots in either Democratic or Republican nomination events.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin +7 Over Hovde — Businessman Eric Hovde (R) announced his US Senate candidacy in the Badger State last week, and this week we see the first polling pairing with two-term incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D). Emerson College released their latest Wisconsin survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the sampling universe would support Donald Trump 44-42 percent, Democratic incumbent Baldwin would lead the Senate race 46-39 percent.

The poll might look more encouraging for Republicans at first glance since Sen. Baldwin is under 50 percent and has only a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. The polling universe, however, features more Republicans than Democrats, 35-33 percent with an additional 32 percent responding as non-affiliated. Though Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, voter history suggests that the poll, though weighted to reflect the actual electorate, appears to have a slight Republican skew.

House

New York: Dems Unveil New Cong Map — The Democratic super majority in the state Assembly and Senate unveiled a new congressional map that surprised many, but in retrospect the plan is an indication the party leaders knew they would face tough going on a legal challenge if they stretched their partisan interests much further.

As reported earlier, the state’s Citizens Redistricting Commission made only cosmetic changes in the plan the court created for the 2022 election. Though that map only gave Republicans a clear partisan plurality in just three of the state’s 26 seats according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the GOP candidates won 11 races. The Citizens Commission members left the court footprint largely intact, which the legislature then rejected. When the people adopted a citizens’ redistricting commission ballot proposition, the process allowed the legislature to either approve or reject the commission adopted plans.

The surprising end to this story is the legislature’s own map is another “least change” map from the court’s original footprint, which very likely means that the 2024 New York congressional playing field will be almost identical to what we saw in 2022.

TN-7: Delegation Attempting to Convince Rep. Green to “Un-retire” — So far in this election cycle, we’ve seen two US House members, Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN), announce their retirements only to change their mind and seek re-election. We may soon have a third. Public reports are coming from Tennessee where the Republican congressional delegation, including Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) who previously represented the 7th District during her career in the House, are publicly encouraging Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville), the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, to change his mind about retiring. Last week, Rep. Green announced he would not seek a fourth term.

The Tennessee candidate filing deadline is April 4 for the Aug. 1 primary, so it is possible we may soon see one less open House seat.

Michigan Presidential Primaries Today; Surprising Maine Poll; Michigan GOP Candidate Leading; NY Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2024

President

Michigan: Presidential Primaries Today — The presidential nomination process moves to Michigan today, and Wolverine State voters of both parties will cast delegate apportioning votes. It is clear that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will win their respective primaries, and by large majorities.

Michigan presidential Primaries underway today; is former President Donald Trump besting President Joe Biden in a new Maine poll?

The Emerson College survey (Feb. 20-24; 1,000 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Biden posting a whopping 75-5 percent lead over US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN). A total of nine percent report planning to vote for the Uncommitted Slate, the move that Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) was encouraging Michigan voters to take in order to protest the Biden’s pro-Israel policy. On the Republican side, Trump records a 69-20 percent lead over former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Both men are already in the “presumptive nominee” sphere.

Maine: Shock Poll; Trump Leads in General — A very surprising general election poll in Maine was released from the Pan Atlantic Research organization in Portland, Maine. The poll (Feb. 6-14; 836 Maine adults; 791 Maine likely voters; online) finds former President Trump topping President Biden in what was previously a state largely unattainable for Republican presidential candidates. The numbers find Trump leading the Biden 38-32 percent with 21 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. The “other candidates” were not identified, but it is reasonable to assume that most of these New Englanders choosing to support a candidate other than Biden or Trump would be headed to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Trump is carrying the state largely on the back of his large 20-point lead in the 2nd Congressional District. He would trail Biden in the Democratic 1st CD by eight points. Because Maine’s congressional districts carry their own electoral votes, the results suggest Trump would get three electoral votes from the state and Biden, one.

Of course, these surprising results can easily change but things will have to significantly improve for President Biden before such happens. According to this data, the Biden’s favorability index in Maine is 38:61 percent favorable to unfavorable, meaning the campaign’s task of improving his image is a difficult one.

Senate

Michigan: New GOP Poll Posts Ex-Rep. Rogers to Primary Lead — A regular Michigan pollster, MRG Research, surveyed the state’s Republican electorate and becomes the first poll in the field since retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) withdrew from the Senate race. The study (Feb. 19-22; 600 likely Michigan primary voters) finds former US Rep. Mike Rogers opening a large 23-7 percent Republican primary lead over ex-Rep. Peter Meijer.

Another former congressman, Libertarian Justin Amash, is reportedly considering entering the GOP race but has yet to do so. The Michigan state primary is not scheduled until Aug. 6. The eventual Republican Senate nominee will very likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) in the general election. The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

New York: Legislature Rejects Redistricting Map — Yesterday, both chambers of the New York state legislature rejected the Citizens Redistricting Commission congressional plan that made few changes to the court-imposed map of 2022. It is clear that the Democratic legislature wants to draw a political footprint more favorable for their party but will do so under what will be an almost guaranteed partisan gerrymandering lawsuit.

The state Senate then passed a bill attempting to limit where such a lawsuit could be filed, listing the most populous and Democratic counties in the state. Republicans claim that such a maneuver will be ruled unconstitutional.

While the Democrats may have won this latest New York redistricting round, the fight is a long way from culmination.

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.

Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote; Potentially Strong Senate Candidate Files in Wisconsin; Lesko to Retire, But Not From Politics; Close Governor Race in Washington

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024

President

Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for a protest vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary.

Michigan: Rep. Tlaib Calling for Protest Vote — The Michigan presidential primary is scheduled for next Tuesday, and controversial US Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) is calling for pro-Palestinian voters to “support Gaza” by voting for the “Uncommitted Slate” in the Democratic primary. While this tactic may gain some votes within the large Muslim community in the Detroit area, it will not deter President Joe Biden from securing all of Michigan’s Democratic delegates. He is on track to mathematically clinch the nomination on the first convention ballot when the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Wisconsin: Republican Candidate Files with FEC — Banking and real estate investor Eric Hovde, who ran for the Senate in the 2012 Republican primary, has filed a 2024 US Senate campaign committee with the Federal Election Commission. Wisconsin is the last potentially competitive state where Republicans do not have a strong candidate. The national Republican leadership hopes Hovde will be viable enough to keep this state in play for November. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is seeking a third term.

In 2012, Hovde lost the Republican primary to former four-term Gov. Tommy Thompson on a 34-30 percent count. Thompson would then lose to then-US Rep. Baldwin, 51-46 percent, in what proved to be the senator’s first statewide victory. Wisconsin elections are always close, so this will be yet another race to watch as the election cycle proceeds.

Maricopa County, Arizona: Retiring Congresswoman to Run for Local Office — GOP Congresswoman Debbie Lesko (R-AZ) may be retiring from Congress, but not from elective politics. Lesko announced that she will run this year for an open seat on the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors. The incumbent, Republican Clint Hickman who was re-elected four years ago with almost 59 percent of the vote, is retiring. Former President Donald Trump carried the 4th Supervisorial District with 57 percent over President Joe Biden in 2020. Each of the five county supervisors represent just over 900,000 people, just slightly larger than the size of a congressional district.

In recent election years several California US House members, then-Reps. Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles), Gloria Negrete McLeod (D-San Bernardino), and Paul Cook (R-San Bernardino) also left the US House to run for a county board position. Reps. Hahn and Cook were successfully elected. Former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) is also a member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, but she was elected after serving as US Labor Secretary in the Obama Administration.

Governor

Washington: Another Close Governor Race Survey — Once again, we see more survey data predicting a tight open seat campaign, this time in the Washington governor’s race. Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute sees Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) and former US representative and King County Sheriff Dave Reichert (R) advancing into the general election from the Aug. 6 jungle primary. Ferguson and Reichert recorded a respective 35-27-9 percent showing over Richland School Board member Semi Bird in the primary polling.

Though a previous PPP poll posted Reichert to a small lead, this sampling universe sees Ferguson inching ahead. The ballot test result favored the Democratic attorney general within the polling margin of error, 46-44 percent.

Trump Expands Huge Lead in Primary States; Craig Suspends Senate Campaign; Primary Averted in NJ-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

South Carolina: Trump Expands Huge Lead — The international survey research firm YouGov, polling for CBS News (Feb. 5-10; 1,483 registered South Carolina voters; 1,001 likely South Carolina Republican presidential primary voters; online) finds former President Donald Trump expanding his previous ballot test lead over former UN ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley as the candidates move toward the Feb. 24 Palmetto State GOP primary. Trump secured 65 percent of the poll respondents’ support versus 30 percent for Haley.

Trump does much better as to who would perform better on all associated issue questions with the exception of which candidate is most likable. In terms of committed support, 87 percent of the individuals who say they support Trump report that their vote is firm. A total of 78 percent of Haley voters say the same about their support. A convincing Trump South Carolina victory in her home state will effectively end the Haley campaign.

Upcoming Primaries: Trump Way Ahead — The Morning Consult firm released the results of polls they conducted through key states with primaries on March 5, 12, and 19. The ballot tests are overwhelming in favor of former President Trump. In Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Ohio, Trump registers between 75 percent (Arizona) and 85 percent (Florida) of the Republican respondents. Haley posts support percentages only between 14 percent (Florida) and 20 percent (Illinois).

Senate

Michigan: Craig Suspends Senate Campaign — For the second election in as many cycles, retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R) has ended a political campaign before the candidate filing process even concludes. Craig announced that he is suspending his statewide US Senate campaign but may instead turn to what could be an open Detroit mayoral race in 2025.

With Craig departing the Senate race, former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) looks to be in good shape. Also in the GOP race is ex-US Rep. Peter Meijer, while another former congressman, Republican-turned-Libertarian Justin Amash, remains a potential entrant. The Michigan candidate filing deadline is April 23 in association with the Aug. 6 primary. US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) is a prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

House

NJ-9: Primary Averted — State Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) ended her primary challenge to veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) after all three of the county Democratic Party organizations that comprise the 9th District voted to slate the 14-term incumbent. Therefore, Rep. Pascrell, who is 87 years old, will be a lock for the Democratic nomination and should again breeze to re-election in November.

New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District is anchored in Paterson and Passaic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+17. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-9 as the 84th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

DCCC’s Initial Targets

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024

House

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

STATE DISTRICT INCUMBENT DCCC CANDIDATE
Arizona 13 DUARTE, JOHN ENGEL, KIRSTEN
California 6 CISCOMANI, JUAN GRAY, ADAM
California 22 VALADAO, DAVID SALAS, RUDY
California 27 GARCIA, MIKE WHITESIDES, GEORGE
California 41 CALVERT, KEN ROLLINS, WILL
Colorado 3 OPEN FRISCH, ADAM
Iowa 1 MILLER-MEEKS, M. BOHANNON, CHRISTINE
Iowa 3 NUNN, ZACH BACCAM, LANON
Michigan 7 OPEN HERTEL, CURTIS
Michigan 1 ZINKE, RYAN TRANEL, MONICA
Nebraska 2 BACON, DON VARGAS, TONY
New York 3 SPECIAL ELECTION SUOZZI, TOM
New York 17 LAWLER, MIKE JONES, MONDAIRE
New York 19 MOLINARO, MARC RILEY, JOSH
Oregon 5 CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L. BYNUM, JANELLE
Texas 15 de la CRUZ, MONICA VALLEJO, MICHELLE
Virginia 2 KIGGANS, JEN SMASAL, MISSY COTTER

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

  1. CA-13 (Duarte)
  2. CA-22 (Valadao)
  3. CA-27 (Garcia)
  4. NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
  5. NY-17 (Lawler)
  6. OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)

This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

DISTRICT CANDIDATE
AZ-1 David Schweikert
CA-40 Young Kim
CA-45 Michelle Steel
FL-13 Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27 Maria Elvira Salazar
MI-10 John James
NJ-7 Tom Kean Jr.
NY-4 Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22 Brandon Williams
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Scott Perry
WI-1 Bryan Steil

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.

The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.