Tag Archives: OH-6

42-Year Incumbent Rep. Kaptur to Run Again; No OH-6 Special Election; NC Filing Deadline Approaches; Jackson Lee Trails in Houston Mayoral Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023

House

Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo)

OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again — US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is Dec. 20 for the March 19 primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made.

Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43 percent victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson — Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (Dec. 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19 plurality primary will likely decide Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37 percent margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election.

Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter.

North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements — The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the Dec. 15 candidate filing deadline is fast approaching, and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.

Tuesday saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November.

In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44 percent for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Trails in New Mayoral Poll — Survey USA conducted a poll for the University of Houston pertaining to Texas’ largest city’s mayoral campaign (Nov. 13-18; 1,120 Houston adults; 971 registered voters; 805 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) as we approach the Dec. 9 runoff election. The ballot test is breaking 42-35 percent in favor of state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), the second-longest serving member of the Texas legislature having been initially elected in 1972. US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who qualified in second place for the runoff, continues to trail Whitmire as the campaign begins to conclude.

According to the S-USA poll, crime is the overwhelming issue of concern. From the tested respondent pool a whopping 63 percent say they don’t feel safe walking around the city during the day.

Retirement Announcements in CA-16, MI-8; Rep. Johnson Accepts State University Offer; Maloy Wins UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 27, 2023

House

Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton)

CA-16: Rep. Anna Eshoo to Retire — Veteran California US Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) announced last week that she will conclude her congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Rep. Eshoo, first elected in 1992, is completing her 16th term.

Rep. Eshoo might have faced a serious Democratic intra-party challenge. Santa Clara supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Smitian (D) was close to announcing his congressional effort. Upon Rep. Eshoo’s announcement, speculation is circulating that state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Cupertino) will quickly announce his intention to run for Congress.

The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat as D+49. It is likely that we will see two Democrats emerge from the March 5 jungle primary and advance into the general election. Eshoo is the sixth House Californian not to seek re-election in this political cycle.

MI-8: Rep. Dan Kildee Won’t Seek Re-Election — The cavalcade of retirements continues, and one of the latest involves Michigan. Six-term Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) also announced last week that he will not run again. This move is a bit of a surprise, though the congressman did experience a cancer-related health scare before the previous election.

Unlike most of the other open seats, Michigan’s 8th CD will be hotly contested. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+1, though Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean in the Democrats’ favor, 51.0D-46.2R. President Joe Biden carried the seat in 2020 with a slight 50.3 – 48.2 percent victory margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 11th most vulnerable in the Democratic Conference.

OH-6: Rep. Bill Johnson Accepts — Eastern Ohio GOP Congressman Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will accept an offer from Youngstown State University to become the institution’s president. Johnson had sent a release earlier in the week indicating that he had received an offer from the board of trustees to accept the university’s top position.

It is likely that Rep. Johnson will resign the seat before the term ends, and he certainly will not be on the ballot in the 2024 regular election. We can expect a crowded Republican primary field to form in order to battle for the Republican nomination in Ohio’s March 19 election.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+31. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-6 as the 82nd-safest seat in the Republican Conference. With Johnson leaving and the UT-2 seat being filled, we see 32 open seats across the election board, 20 from the Democratic side as compared to 11 Republican-held districts. One open seat was created from the new Alabama redistricting map.

UT-2: Republican Maloy Wins Special Election — Republican Celeste Maloy was declared the victor in the Utah 2nd Congressional District special election early in the evening last Tuesday night as she recorded an unofficial 58-34 percent victory, performing almost exactly as the district’s vote history would have projected.

While Democrat Kathleen Riebe, an area state senator, easily won Salt Lake County with almost two-thirds of the vote, Maloy, the former legal counsel to resigned Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), claimed each of the district’s 12 other counties with percentages between 59 and 90 percent of the cast ballots.

With Democrat Gabe Amo’s special election victory earlier in the month from Rhode Island, the House now returns to its full compliment of 435 members for the first time since June 1. Maloy’s Republican victory in Utah restores the House to its partisan divide of 222 Republicans and 213 Democrats.

Utah Rep. Considering Senate Run; Santos Won’t Seek Re-Election; Alaska Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom in House Race; College Recruiting Ohio Rep.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 20, 2023

Senate

Utah Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo)

Utah: Rep. Curtis Reportedly Considering Senate Run — “The drumbeat from Utahans around the state asking me to reconsider my decision last month to stay out of the Senate race has been constant and consistent,” Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) said yesterday. “These voices, getting louder and more organized, are increasingly difficult to ignore.” Originally, Rep. Curtis indicated he would not seek the state’s open US Senate seat now that Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has chosen to retire. Now, apparently, a Curtis entry into the race could be imminent.

Rep. Curtis was elected to the 3rd District House seat in a 2017 special election to replace then-Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) who resigned to accept a position in the media. Curtis has been easily re-elected ever since. Prior to his service in Congress, the representative was twice elected mayor of Provo. Seven Republicans have already announced for the Senate, the most prominent of which is former state House Speaker Brad Wilson.

House

NY-3: Rep. Santos Won’t Seek Re-Election — Embattled New York Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island), understanding that he cannot win re-election considering the ethics and criminal investigations that plague him, announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The move may not be enough for those who want him out of the House now. According to reports covering the House Ethics Committee report about Santos’ activities, the content is damning to the point that he may now be vulnerable to another budding expulsion resolution.

Should Santos be removed from office, a special election will be held to fill the balance of the term. Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) is poised to run along with five other Democrats including former state Sen. Anna Kaplan. Two other Democrats recently withdrew from the race and endorsed ex-Rep. Suozzi. Nine Republicans have also announced, but none have previously served in elected office. Republican leaders are trying to recruit state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) but so far he has yet to commit.

The 3rd CD holds a D+4 rating according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NY-3 as the eighth most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. Clearly, this will likely become the top Democratic conversion opportunity in the country.

AK-AL: Lieutenant Governor Announces for House — Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) late this week announced that she will enter the at-large congressional campaign hoping to unseat incumbent Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). Already in the race is 2022 Republican general election finalist Nick Begich III.

Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom’s addition to the race could actually help Rep. Peltola win re-election. Under the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system, four finalists will advance to the general election from the all-party jungle primary. In the general election, voters will then rank their choices from one to four. When Peltola first won the seat in the 2022 special election, approximately 60 percent of voters supported a Republican candidate in the all-party primary, and a majority voted Republican in the general election, yet the Ranked Choice system allowed Peltola to win.

A similar situation could occur in 2024. In the 2022 regular general election, Begich and former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) split the Republican vote, thus denying any candidate a majority, which led to Ranked Choice taking effect and Peltola’s victory. In 2024, the split between Begich and Lt. Gov. Dahlstrom, since at least these two and a third person are a lock to qualify for the general election, will probably once again re-elect the state’s Democratic congresswoman. This situation could change if the proposed ballot proposition to repeal the Ranked Choice Voting system qualifies for a vote and the measure passes.

OH-6: Rep. Johnson Being Recruited as University President — The Youngstown State University Trustees have unanimously voted to offer the institution’s presidency position to US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta), but it is far from certain that the congressman will accept. Johnson released a public statement acknowledging the offer and indicating that he is uncertain as to what will be his decision. Should he accept and resign the House seat, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) would have to call a special election to fill the balance of the term.

Ohio’s 6th District encompasses much of eastern Ohio that hugs both the Pennsylvania and West Virginia borders. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+31. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks OH-6 as the 82nd safest seat in the Republican Conference.