Category Archives: Redistricting

Court Tosses Virginia Redistricting; Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan to Retire

Virginia Congressional Districts map / Dave’s Redistricting App

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, January 29, 2025

Virginia

A Virginia Circuit Court Judge ruled that the legislature violated its own rules in hastily voting to place a partisan redistricting referendum on a statewide special election ballot. Therefore, with this ruling, the Virginia congressional redistricting referendum is likely nullified for the 2026 election cycle.

Judge Jack Hurley Jr. agreed with three of the four plaintiffs’ arguments, which is enough to halt the redistricting process. The arguments largely pertained to legislative procedure for special sessions: determining that the legislators violated certain rules they almost unanimously put in place, and not providing timely notice to voters and counties about the upcoming referendum in accordance with Virginia election law.

The Old Dominion redistricting outcome may have been devastating to Republicans if the proposed map outline, which has not been unveiled publicly, ultimately delivered a 10D-1R partisan split as reported. The current Virginia delegation is 6D-5R. Unless something changes on the legal front in relation to appealing this decision, the 2026 election will be conducted on the present 2021 map.

The Virginia candidate filing deadline is April 2 for the June 16 primary election. Therefore, the 2026 political clock at least regarding redistricting is now on the Republicans’ side.

Yet, even under the current map, several seats will be hotly contested in the midterm election cycle. Eleven Democrats have announced their challenge to veteran 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose). Former Congresswoman Elaine Luria (D) is mounting a comeback attempt against the woman who unseated her in 2022, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), in District 2.

Moving to the central part of the state, freshman Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) faces a primary challenge from former Congressman Bob Good in a rematch from the 2024 primary, and general election competition from ex-Congressman Tom Perriello (D), assuming he tops seven other Democrats also vying for the party nomination.

Moving into Northern Virginia, state Sen. Tara Durant (R-Fredericksburg) is poised to run a competitive campaign against freshman Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Dale City) in the politically marginal 7th District.

Regardless of the electoral map, Old Dominion voters can expect a very active 2026 congressional political cycle.

FL-16

Ten-term Florida Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota) announced that he will not seek re-election later this year. The Buchanan retirement means that 55 US House seats are open for the next election. The number includes the four seats that are vacant due to death of an incumbent or resignation from the House and will be filled in special elections.

Of the 55, Rep. Buchanan joins 18 other members who are retiring from elective politics. The others, excluding the two deceased members, are running for another office, either Governor or US Senate. Of the 55 open seats, a total of 30 come from the Republican aisle compared to 20 who are Democrats. The remaining five are new open seats created through 2025 redistricting maps in California and Texas.

Buchanan’s 16th Congressional District, anchored in Bradenton and Manatee County, is safely Republican. The district also houses 25 percent of Hillsborough County. The other population centers are the cities of Bloomingdale, Sun City Center, and Palmetto.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the Republicans hold the partisan lean advantage at 55.2R – 42.7D. President Trump carried the 16th with a 57.3 – 41.8 percent vote spread in 2024.

It is likely, however, that all of these numbers will change if the legislature follows through and passes redistricting legislation later in the year. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) says he will call the legislature into special session in April for the purpose of redrawing the congressional boundaries.

Rep. Buchanan is the third member of the Florida delegation to not seek re-election. The other two are Reps. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) who is retiring, and Byron Donalds (R-Naples) a gubernatorial candidate.

Expect the new 16th District to be slightly less Republican, as will the surrounding seats on Florida’s Gulf Coast. Doing so will allow more Republican voters to be drawn into Democratic seats, and particularly the district of Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) who is clearly in the most vulnerable political position of any central/southern Florida Democratic member.

NC-1 Rematch;
TX-18 Special Election Overview

North Carolina 2026 Congressional District map (Click on image or here to go to: DRA-North Carolina)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

NC-1

A surprising turn of events has occurred in North Carolina’s eastern 1st Congressional District, as we move past last week’s North Carolina candidate Friday filing deadline for the March 3 primary.

The 1st District is the focal point of the new North Carolina redistricting map. Republican legislators redrew the congressional plan several weeks ago with the goal of flipping the district from Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a Republican. Now, we see a major change on the candidate slate.

Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson (R), who earlier loaned his congressional campaign $2 million, decided earlier last week to end his candidacy. On Thursday, 2024 congressional nominee Laurie Buckhout, who had endorsed Roberson, decided she would make a comeback in his absence and declared her candidacy.

Buckhout had accepted a Department of Defense position from the Trump Administration but will now leave Washington, DC and re-enter the 1st District race. In 2024, Buckhout held Rep. Davis to a razor-thin 49.5 – 48.7 percent re-election margin in District 1’s more Democratic version. In the same election, however, President Trump carried the district with a 51.2 – 48.1 percent margin over Kamala Harris.

At this point, with candidate filing closed as of Friday, the announced Republican candidates in addition to Buckhout are Carteret Count Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig (R-Powells Point), Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

Rep. Davis, saddled with what is now an unfavorable district, has filed for re-election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the new NC-1 is 52.4R – 45.9D. The 2024 election’s partisan lean was 50.9D – 47.7R.

The North Carolina primary is scheduled for March 3. In order to avoid a runoff, the first-place finisher must exceed the 30 percent vote threshold. NC-1 is now a prime conversion opportunity for the GOP.

TX-18

The special election to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has had the longest campaign cycle of the five 2025 US House vacancies. Turner passed away earlier this year on March 5.

Gov. Greg Abbott decided to schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s municipal elections on Nov. 4. Under Texas law, a runoff election, necessary if no candidate receives 50 percent in the first vote, is calendared once it becomes official that no contender reached the majority mark.

In this case, Gov. Abbott slotted the runoff for Jan. 31. Qualifying for that election are Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards.

Redistricting has played havoc with this Houston-anchored CD, which is fully contained within Harris County. Immediately after the special election concludes, both Menefee and Edwards, regardless of the outcome, will advance into the regular term primary election for new District 18 that will be settled on March 3. There, however, they will face 9th District veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston) who is running for a 12th term in new District 18.

The new map puts both Menefee and Edwards at a major disadvantage against Rep. Green because 64.5 percent of the new district constituency comes from the Congressman’s current 9th CD according to The Down Ballot political blog redistribution analysis. Only 25.8 percent carries over from the current 18th where the special election is being conducted.

Turning to the special, a new Lake Partners Research survey (Dec. 8-14; 437 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the Jan. 31 runoff finds Menefee posting a 43-30 percent edge.

Looking at the district stats and comparing them with the new map, it appears that the special election winner will likely have only a short tenure in the House as Congressman Green will be favored to prevail for the regular term party nomination on March 3.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

Rep. Issa to Remain in California

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 8, 2025

US House

California Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego)

There had been some speculation that veteran Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) was going to travel to Texas to seek re-election in the new TX-32 district since the California redistricting plan has turned his safely Republican CD into one that is highly competitive.

At the end of last week, Rep. Issa announced that he will seek re-election and will do so in CA-48 despite the district now having a Democratic tilt.

The US Supreme Court approved the new Texas map late last week and declared that the 2025 plan will be in place for the 2026 election. The decision also affects the new California map since the pending lawsuits in both cases involved racial gerrymandering claims, meaning the voter-approved new Golden State map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 elections.

The justices timed their ruling to allow candidate filing in Texas to conclude today. Several key political determinations dominoes will fall, the most significant of which revolves around Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s (D-Dallas) decision to file for the Senate or House.

In a related choice, Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth), who sees his 33rd District now located wholly within Dallas County thus eliminating his Tarrant County political base, says he will file in Crockett’s District 30 if she announces for the Senate. If Crockett decides to remain in the House, Veasey will either file for District 33 or enter the race for Tarrant County Judge (labeled County Executive in other places).

Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson’s (D-Farmers Branch) 32nd District is transformed into a Republican seat that stretches into East Texas. Her plan is to reportedly file in District 33.

While California’s candidate filing will remain open until March 6 (March 11 if the incumbent in a particular race does not file), individuals are making decisions about where to seek election; hence, Rep. Issa’s plan to run in new District 48.

Under the 2021 California Citizens Redistricting Commission map that the legislature and voters replaced this year, Rep. Issa’s San Diego County-anchored 48th District held a partisan lean (according to the Dave’s Redistricting App organization) of 58.3R – 39.8D. Under the new plan, that ratio moves to 50.6D – 48.7R, a net swing of 20.5 data points in the Democrats’ favor.

Though this makes re-election much more difficult for Rep. Issa, he still has a fighting chance of defeating a Democrat in the general election. Several California districts with more lopsided Democratic partisan leans have elected Republican Representatives. Therefore, this seat likely moves from a Safe Republican rating to Toss-Up.

In comments posted in an X tweet, Rep. Issa also made some suggestions about other members in his delegation, most specifically the proposed pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). At this point, both have announced for new District 40 (DRA partisan lean: 57.0R – 42.3D), but Rep. Issa was suggesting that Rep. Kim instead run in new District 45 where she would challenge freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange County).

From a Republican Party standpoint, such a move would make sense. Ironically, the state’s two most vulnerable Democratic members, the pair who won the closest US House elections in 2024 — Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced; winning by 187 votes) and Tran (winning by 653 votes) — actually see their Democratic partisan ratios surprisingly reduced under the new map.

In District 13, Rep. Gray views a partisan swing that moves a net 4.3 data points in the Republicans’ favor, making the partisan lean, according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, of 52.4D – 46.9R. In 2022, Republican John Duarte won the 13th District that featured a partisan lean of 54.0D – 44.2R.

In southern California’s 45th CD, former Rep. Michelle Steel (R), who earlier announced that she will not return to run again in 2026, carried the seat in 2022 with a DRA partisan lean of 52.2D – 45.9R. The new 45th posts a 51.7D – 47.5R partisan lean, again suggesting that a Republican general election finalist will be competitive.

With the Supreme Court making the political situations clearer in at least the two most populous states, final 2026 electoral decisions in California and Texas can now be made with all candidates confident of which map will be in place. We will carry further analysis of the Texas situation after candidate filing closes later today.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

Dec. 2 Special Election
Taking Center Stage in Tennessee

Tennessee Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

US House

The Dec. 2 special election to fill the Tennessee open congressional seat should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, but new polling data and outside money coming into the district for both sides infer this contest will be closer than expected.

We’ve seen two recent polls, both producing similar ballot test results. The first is from Workbench Strategies for Democratic nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn’s campaign (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters), that found Republican former state cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps leading by a 51-41 percent clip.

The second poll, from Impact Research and taken within the same time frame (Oct. 16-19; 700 likely TN-7 special election voters), produced a similar 52-44 percent result in Van Epps’ favor. The polls suggest the race could become closer as the margin between the two candidates are at least slightly under where the Republican nominee should stand at this point in the campaign.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District was changed dramatically in the 2021 redistricting plan. In order to convert the Nashville-anchored 5th District to the Republicans, the 7th CD had to give up GOP territory. Therefore, what was typically a high 60s Republican seat became a high 50s district.

The 7th District from the previous decade carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) when then-Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Mark Green (R) successively held the seat. Blackburn, of course, is now in the Senate and running for Governor. Green resigned from Congress earlier in the year to pursue an opportunity in the private sector, thereby opening the current 7th District for the special election.

The 2021 TN-7 version for the current decade posts a much different partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The current numbers yield a 55.1R – 42.2D, or a net Democratic net gain of 21.6 percentage points. This means instead of a Republican candidate finishing near 70 percent, the new numbers would suggest victories in the mid to high 50s.

While the statistics show that a typical Republican candidate should still win easily under the new 7th District boundaries, and so far, they have (President Trump ’24: 60-38%; Rep. Green ’24: 59-38 percent), anything can happen in a low turnout special election. Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the November 4th elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee.

The Virginia turnout numbers are telling and could give us an insight into what might happen in Tennessee. The final Virginia numbers actually showed a two percent drop-off in turnout when compared to 2021. The conclusion was Republican election day turnout proved poor, thus leading to the landslide Democratic victory.

The situation again dictates that the Tennessee Republicans will have to find a better way of convincing what is termed “the casual Trump voter” — that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but typically is not a regular voter — to participate in the special election.

While only spending $188,000 to win the special primary in a four-way Democratic field that featured two other state Representatives, Behn eked out a close victory with just 27.9 percent of the vote. The fourth-place finisher garnered 23.1 percent to illustrate how evenly distributed the votes were among contenders.

The situation is different for the special general. Though financial reports past Sept. 30 are not yet available, it is clear that Rep. Behn will have adequate resources to compete.

She can also count on support from left-of-center national organizations coming into the district to independently help her effort, but such is now being countered to a significant degree from at least two organizations on the right, the Club for Growth and an organization entitled Conservatives for American Excellence.

The stakes are now high for this special election in a Republican district. It is one thing for Republicans to lose big in three anti-Trump domains such as New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. It is quite another if the Democratic nominee prevails in a special election from a strong Republican seat. With early voting now underway, the closing weeks for this campaign will prove quite interesting.

How Texas Changes

To see larger image, click on above map. To see interactive maps, go to Dave’s Redistricting App: Texas 2021 Plan | Texas 2025 Plan

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Redistricting

The El Paso three-judge panel ruling that invalidates the new Texas map, if allowed to stand, will greatly disrupt the Lone Star State political cycle as candidates currently prepare for an early March 3, 2026, primary election.

In reverting to the 2021 map, 37 of the state’s 38 congressional districts will change, thus altering virtually all the candidates campaign strategies and geographic targets.

Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant between the two maps. A total of 26 districts experience only minor changes, while 11 see major alterations.

Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open, but returning to the 2021 map will likely mean that number drops to seven. It is also probable that one member who announced his retirement under the 2025 map, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), will return to run again if the 2021 map is formally reinstated.

In the invalidated plan, Reps. Doggett and Greg Casar (D-Austin) were paired in a new 37th District, while Rep. Casar’s 35th CD was created as an open seat that stretched into rural counties east of San Antonio. If the 2021 plan is in place for next year’s election, both will have back their previous districts. Doggett said earlier that he would return to seek re-election if the 2025 map was tossed and the previous plan restored.

In the ’25 draw, a new 9th District was created in eastern Harris County. Should the three-judge panel’s ruling be upheld, this district will go away and the candidates seeking this seat will have no place to run.

Should the previous 9th District return, Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again seek re-election in this district and would not be paired in a new 18th CD with the winner of the Jan. 31 special runoff election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away.

Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th District would still be an open seat, and though the territory is different from the invalidated map, the candidate pool would likely remain the same. This is similar to the situation in the 8th and 21st Districts where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring, and four-term incumbent Chip Roy (R-Austin) passed on re-election to run for state Attorney General.

Turning to South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will naturally see a return to her original 15th District configuration. The new 15th would have given her more Republican voters. Still, she should again be able to win re-election in the 2021 version.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) saw some of the territory that gave him the most trouble go away under the new version of District 28. Rep. Cuellar had two close calls in the Democratic primary largely because of the San Antonio region. The 2025 map moved this district further into South Texas. If the previous districts are reinstated, he may again draw a more combative Democratic primary opponent, while still facing a competitive general election.

One of the districts most affected in South Texas was Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-McAllen) 34th CD anchored in Brownsville. The Congressman would have been in serious trouble under the new plan, but the 2021 version returns his much stronger Democratic base. Still, his victory margin in 2024 was only 51-49 percent over former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), and he can expect to face her again. She would have been favored in the new district, but Rep. Gonzalez returns to having the stronger political position under the 2021 map.

The Dallas area was changed greatly under the 2025 plan. The two members most affected were Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch). Under the new plan, all of Rep. Veasey’s home Tarrant County turf was moved into different districts, leaving his 33rd CD as a self-contained seat within Dallas County.

Under the new plan, Veasey was looking to leave the House to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). If the previous map returns, it is possible that he will seek re-election.

Rep. Johnson, who saw her 32nd District moved largely into Republican East Texas, would return to the previous district under the 2021 plan. She was looking to move into Rep. Veasey’s vacated 33rd District if the new map were in place.

Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the new map, though some of the predictions might have been overly optimistic, such as, beating Rep. Cuellar in his new 28th CD and securing the open 35th CD.

If the three-judge panel’s decision holds, it is probable that we will see no Republican gain under the 2021 map thus making the chances of retaining their slim majority even more precarious.