Category Archives: Redistricting

Two Key Races Develop in NH Primary; Missouri Map Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

New Hampshire

Granite State voters chose their nominees last night, and two contests important to the national political landscape in November are now set.

In the Senate race, as expected, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) easily won their respective primaries and will meet in a shortened general election campaign. Rep. Pappas defeated scientist and far left activist Karishma Manzur, 65-33 percent, a result roughly in line with pre election polling.

Sununu posted an even larger victory over former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Scott Brown, 68-27 percent in the Republican primary.

Early general election polling suggests a competitive race. Though Democrats have held a consistent advantage in New Hampshire for much of this century, the Sununu family has also performed strongly statewide; John Sununu’s brother, Chris Sununu (R), for example, won four consecutive two year gubernatorial terms before retiring in 2024.

In the state’s closely watched 1st Congressional District, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – appears to have eked out a narrow 37-35 percent victory with several thousand ballots still outstanding. While the remaining votes could theoretically shift the outcome, it would be difficult for former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan to overcome Shaheen’s advantage. The tight margin is notable: the Shaheen name has been a fixture in New Hampshire politics for decades, so a narrow win in a Democratic primary represents an under performance relative to historical expectations.

On the Republican side, automobile business owner Anthony DiLorenzo scored a decisive victory, winning a majority of the vote and defeating former New Hampshire Republican Party Vice Chair Hollie Neveletsky by a 52-26 percent spread.

Although the 1st District has long been considered competitive, Rep. Pappas secured the seat for the Democrats through four consecutive terms. Prior to Pappas first winning here in 2018, the last time the 1st District electorate re-elected an incumbent came in 2004. Based upon the most recent electoral trends, Stefany Shaheen begins the general election with a substantial advantage.

In the 2nd District, the expected rematch materialized: Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams each won easy primary victories. Rep. Goodlander enters November as the clear favorite to retain the seat.

The gubernatorial primaries also unfolded without suspense. Gov. Kelly Ayotte won 91 percent of the vote in the Republican contest, while former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Ayotte begins the general election as the favorite to secure a second two-year term.

Statewide primary turnout, driven largely by strong participation in the 1st District, clearly favored Democrats. Approximately 57 percent of all ballots cast yesterday were in the Democratic primary.

Missouri

In an emergency ruling issued due to the compressed election timetable, Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who serves as the presiding justice for both the 6th and 8th Circuits, encompassing Michigan and Missouri, yesterday rejected Missouri’s appeal of a state Supreme Court decision disqualifying the new congressional map.

Justice Kavanaugh had previously ruled on a Michigan case that closely resembled the Missouri situation: in both states, ballot initiatives appeared to meet the statutory requirements for ballot placement, but election officials denied certification.

The two rulings, however, appeared inconsistent. Justice Kavanaugh declined to allow the Americans for Citizen Voting organization’s proof of citizenship measure onto the Michigan ballot yet permitted the Missouri initiative – seeking voter approval or rejection of the state’s new congressional map – to proceed. In both instances, he provided no explanation for his decisions.

The final outcome leaves the new 2026 Missouri map disqualified and reinstates the 2022 congressional boundaries. As a result, Republicans lose the opportunity to convert the Kansas City-anchored 5th District. Because the 2026 congressional nominees were chosen under the now invalidated map, the state must determine how to select nominees under the restored 2022 lines. Complicating matters further, it remains unclear which state official or entity has the authority to make such determinations.

With statutory deadlines rapidly approaching, Missouri faces significant time pressure to comply with its election laws, meaning nomination decisions will need to be made quickly.

Missouri Map Disqualified

To see an interactive version of this map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Redistricting

Just when it appeared that redistricting litigation had ended for the 2026 election cycle, the Missouri Supreme Court late last week ruled that Secretary of State Denny Hoskins (R) lacked the authority to reject a ballot initiative allowing voters to approve or reject the state’s new congressional map.

According to a comprehensive report from The Down Ballot political blog, Secretary Hoskins had argued that the state constitution “does not authorize” an initiative on congressional redistricting. The court unanimously rejected that position, holding that the Missouri constitution does not prohibit citizens from bringing an initiative on any subject. The justices further ruled that this particular initiative was “legal, sufficient, and timely.”

Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway (R) announced she will immediately appeal the ruling to the US Supreme Court. On Sept. 3, the high court denied an emergency motion from the Michigan‑based organization American for Citizens Voting, which had petitioned the justices to place a proof‑of‑citizenship ballot measure before voters.

As in the Missouri case, the Citizens Voting group had collected well above the required number of signatures to qualify for the ballot, but election officials refused to certify the initiative. The Court offered no explanation for its denial, prompting AG Hanaway to seek a similar ruling on her appeal.

Conversely, if the federal high court takes no action, the newly adopted congressional map – one that would almost certainly have delivered Republicans the Kansas City-anchored seat of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D) – is suspended. The Missouri court also reinstated the previous map, under which Rep. Cleaver’s 5th District remains safely Democratic.

What the state court did not address is how to resolve the fact that nominees have already been elected under the now‑disqualified map in the Aug. 4 primary. Missouri will have to account in some manner for the fact that it has congressional nominees in districts that no longer legally exist. The situation is especially difficult because the Missouri ballot certification deadline of Aug. 25 for the Nov. 3 general election has already passed.

It is also unclear who has the authority to decide how replacement nominees should be chosen. Reports suggest “election officials” would determine the new nomination process, but that term is undefined. Would the decision fall to the Secretary of State? The Governor? The Attorney General? Would the legislature be called into special session to enact a remedy? These questions must be resolved before the elections can proceed.

Several electoral options are being discussed. One would be to hold a new primary concurrent with the general election in a jungle format. If no candidate receives a majority, a runoff would be held in early December. Louisiana has adopted this approach because it faces a similar situation.

Another possibility is to conduct partisan primaries on Election Day, followed by a special general election in December. A third option is to rely on state law allowing political parties to appoint nominees when a vacancy occurs.

Yet another suggestion is to assign each nominee to the district number in which they originally ran. While administratively simple, that approach would likely invite litigation because it substitutes an appointed decision for the voters’ and/or parties’ expressed preferences.

Furthermore, the ballot certification process itself poses a major logistical obstacle. Because the certification deadline has already passed, ballot printing is underway. The timeline is further compressed by Missouri’s early‑voting commencement date of Oct. 20.

Additionally, Missouri, like all other states, must comply with the federal Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which requires that individuals covered under the act have 45 days official notice before an election. For 2026, affected voters must receive notice beginning Sept. 19.

Once again, a late‑cycle court ruling has placed election administrators in an extremely difficult position as they attempt to meet their legal obligations. What happens next remains uncertain.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Florida Supreme Court Upholds
2026 Redistricting Map

2026 Florida redistricting map (to view interactive version, click on map or go to Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Redistricting

In what is likely the final major development of the 2026 mid‑decade redistricting cycle, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced yesterday that the state Supreme Court has rejected Democrats’ appeal of the newly enacted congressional map. As a result, the new districts will be in place for the 2026 election.

The ruling arrives just in time for candidates to finalize their congressional filings before tomorrow’s deadline. The map is designed to shift four Democratic seats into the Republican column, creating a projected 24R-4D delegation. As with the new plans in Texas and California, it remains to be seen whether the election results will deliver the partisan division that the map architects intended.

According to the statisticians at Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), the four most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are, in order: Rep. Darren Soto (D‑Kissimmee; 9th District), Rep. Kathy Castor (D‑Tampa; 14th District), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D‑Weston; currently in the 25th District but drawn into the new 22nd), and Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D‑Parkland; 23rd District), who will seek re‑election in the new 25th.

DRA’s calculations reflect a comprehensive analysis of each district’s political history, incorporating far more than the most recent presidential results. It remains the only research entity providing this type of information for all 435 congressional districts across the US.

Rep. Soto’s central Florida district undergoes the most dramatic shift: a net partisan change of 38.4 percentage points, moving from 58.8D to 58.9R – a complete reversal from his current 9th District. Rep. Castor’s Tampa-anchored seat shifts 30.9 points toward Republicans, moving from 58.3D to 55.5R.

The new 22nd District, drawn as an open seat, stretches from the Weston area across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Rather than running in this district, which contains her home, Rep. Wasserman Schultz has announced for the new 20th District – a decision generating controversy within Democratic circles.

The 20th is one of four safe Democratic seats under the new map, but it is also nearly 70 percent minority: 42.1 percent Black, 23.3 percent Hispanic, 3.7 percent Asian, and 1.4 percent Native American. Several Black community leaders have voiced concern that Wasserman Schultz’s move could prohibit one of several African American candidates from winning the seat.

The district is open because former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus‑ McCormick (D) was forced to resign while under federal indictment; she is already attempting a political comeback.

A new Listener Group poll (May 29-June 1; 500 likely FL-20 Democratic primary voters; live interview) tests the field and finds Wasserman Schultz leading with 39 percent. Community organizer Elijah Manley follows with 19 percent preference, former Broward County Commissioner and past congressional candidate Dale Holness has 15 percent, and Cherfilus‑McCormick draws just three percent support.

Once respondents are provided additional information, the race tightens. Thus, while Wasserman Schultz begins as the frontrunner, securing the nomination in the Aug. 18 primary is not assured. Her advantage is that Florida does not require a runoff; a simple plurality is sufficient for victory. If she maintains her current vote base, Wasserman Schultz could win with well under 50 percent. In a runoff system, the data suggests she would face a more difficult path.

The new 22nd District is a Republican‑leaning seat (DRA partisan lean: 54.4R-44.9D) and is expected to elect a GOP candidate in an open race. Democrats note that President Biden received more votes than President Trump in the 2020 election when reconfigured under the new boundaries. Republicans counter that Trump rebounded here in 2024 and that GOP voter registration has surged since 2020.

The new 25th District, which hugs the Atlantic coast, stretching from Boca Raton down to Miami Beach, is the least Republican of the targeted districts. Its DRA partisan lean is 52.3R-47.0D, and Moskowitz emphasizes that he already represents roughly half of the constituency. Still, the district shifts 19.5 points toward Republicans compared with his current 23rd District.

The redistricting outcomes in Florida and Virginia – where Democrats lost their plus-4D map in court – clearly improve the House Republican national landscape. Across all newly implemented maps, Republicans appear positioned to gain between five and 12 seats relative to their current 220-215 House margin.

Democrats still have a path to reclaiming the House majority in 2026, but the redistricting battles have unquestionably strengthened Republican prospects.

Redistricting: Alabama, Yes — SC, No

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 14, 2026

Alabama

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Alabama Congressional Districts map.

The US Supreme Court acted quickly and decisively earlier this week to resolve the Alabama redistricting situation.

The high court vacated all lower-court federal injunctions related to Alabama’s 2023 congressional map, which had previously been ruled a racial gerrymander. The Court’s opinion in Callais v. Louisiana effectively invalidated the prior rulings, clearing the way for Alabama to proceed with enacting a new congressional redistricting plan.

Gov. Kay Ivey (R) summoned the legislature into a special redistricting session following the Callais decision, and lawmakers moved to reinstate the congressional map they passed in 2023. The plan is expected to give Republicans an additional seat and return the state to a 6R–1D delegation. The map shifts the 2nd District back into southeastern Alabama after a court order had previously required the creation of a second majority minority district anchored in the city of Montgomery.

Returning to the 2023 map resolves a major Republican redistricting challenge in southern Alabama. With Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) running for the Senate, former Rep. Jerry Carl (R) had been set for a Republican primary battle with state Rep. Rhett Marques (R-Enterprise) in the open 1st District, which stretched from Mobile to the Georgia border.

Under the newly enacted plan, however, Carl and Marques will run in separate Republican-leaning districts, each of which would make them nominal favorites in their respective congressional campaigns.

Now seeing a legal resolution, Gov. Ivey announced that the primaries for the affected districts, meaning CDs 1, 2, 6, and 7, are now scheduled for Aug. 11. The remaining districts, 3, 4, and 5, will continue their nomination process on May 19, the state’s original primary election date. Because the boundaries of those latter three districts remain unchanged, there is no need to postpone their primaries.

Although Alabama is a runoff election state, the districts holding delayed primaries will not be subject to a secondary runoff. Instead, the candidates receiving the highest number of votes in their respective primaries will secure their party nominations and advance to the general election.

There had been speculation that the legislature might attempt to draw a 7R – 0D congressional map, but the lawmakers ultimately bypassed the opportunity in order to quickly enact a new plan.

South Carolina

While Alabama moved forward with redistricting, the South Carolina legislature did not. Falling two votes short of the two-thirds majority needed to suspend the regular order rules to move a new bill, lawmakers will conclude the 2026 legislative session today without making any changes to the state’s congressional map.

The opportunity for change, however, may not be over. Gov. Henry McMaster (R) still has the power to call a special legislative session for the purpose of drawing a new congressional map. If convened quickly, a revised plan could still be implemented for the 2026 election cycle.

In a special session, only a simple majority vote would be required to bring the measure forward and secure final passage. Since the state House approved the proposed map with two-thirds support and the Senate fell only two votes short of that threshold, Republicans would likely have sufficient backing to enact a new 7R–0D congressional map.

Gov. Henry McMaster has previously said he would not call a special session, but he could still change course. It is clear that President Trump and congressional Republican leaders are likely to lobby him to move forward with a new federal redistricting map.

Now that Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Tennessee have all enacted new congressional maps in recent days, it remains to be seen if South Carolina will ultimately follow suit.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

Redistricting: Tennessee & Alabama

Click on the map above to see a larger image size, or go here to see the map on the Tennessee Legislature’s site: https://www.capitol.tn.gov/common/img/US-House_2026_Proposed.jpg

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 8, 2026

Tennessee

The Volunteer State’s legislature passed a new congressional map, and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed the legislation into law late this week. The map will likely produce a new 9R-0D congressional delegation.

Principally, the map divides the previous 9th District that contained the city of Memphis and was almost wholly contained in Shelby County into sections. The draw creates a new 9th CD that houses part of Shelby County but then stretches to the outer Nashville suburbs. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) has represented the 9th CD since the beginning of 2007 as a Caucasian in a 60 percent African American district.

Despite having a white Representative, the 9th was a protected majority minority district under the Voting Rights Act. With last week’s US Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana case, the TN-9 District may be redrawn because race can now be used as a factor in redistricting only if the underlying situation involves prisons or if there is demonstrative evidence that a racial community historically has been directly barred access to voting. Since neither of the criteria exists in this area, the new map was drawn.

The new 9th stretches from the south Memphis suburbs easterly along the Mississippi border and past the city of Shelbyville before turning north to move into the outer Nashville suburbs found in Franklin County. The seat transforms from one where Kamala Harris attracted 70.8 percent of the district vote to a CD where President Trump would have defeated her with a 59.9 – 38.8 percent margin.

Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Columbia) 5th District is also vastly different under the new map. Part of the reason for the drastic change was to give Rep. Ogles a different Republican district to help him survive certain political fallout that was endangering his re-election chances.

The 5th, while continuing to begin in the area south and west of Nashville, then moves northwest to capture part of the city of Clarksville near the Kentucky border before moving to the Missouri border and then south along the Arkansas border all the way through Shelby County and the city of Memphis to Mississippi. The new 5th would have yielded President Trump a 60.9 – 37.8 percent win, a slight uptick over the previous 5th CD where Trump defeated Harris, 58.1 – 40.3 percent.

The new map changes every congressional district in Tennessee’s central and western regions. The most negatively affected seat for an incumbent is Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Germantown), who sees his 8th CD that occupies most of far western Tennessee and stretches from the Kentucky border to Mississippi into one that has a more west to east construction.

In terms of partisanship, Kustoff takes a major hit but would still have a solidly Republican district. Under the previous 8th, President Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 70.0 – 28.9 percent spread. Under the new plan, the Trump victory margin would have been 59.4 – 39.2 percent or a negative swing from Rep. Kustoff’s perspective of a net 20.9 points. Still, the new 8th will be rated as safely Republican.

Aside from Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Kingsport) northeastern District 1 where President Trump would have captured 78.4 percent of the vote, the remaining 8 congressional districts all fall between 67.2 percent Trump to 59.4 percent.

With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline already passed, but the state’s primary not until Aug. 6, the Governor has plenty of time to change the US House filing schedule in order to implement the new map for the 2026 election.

Alabama

Decisions were made with regard to Alabama redistricting, too. Because this state is in precisely the same situation as Louisiana, their remedy will be similar. Instead of drawing a new map, however, the legislature says it will revert to a plan passed in 2023, but which was declared a racial gerrymander.

With the ruling criteria established from the Callais v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court, the legislative leaders believe the previously drawn 2023 map will be legal under the definitive SCOTUS ruling. Therefore, they have reinstituted the plan. The question remains as to whether a court will approve the maneuver in time for the 2026 election.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, so obviously the Governor will have to establish a new nomination date for the state’s US House races. Should the 2023 map stand, it is likely that freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will be the odd man out, since this map basically restores the footprint of the 2021 map. This means that both the cities of Mobile and Montgomery will anchor their own districts as opposed to being placed in the same 1st District as is the current case.

The change to the 2023 map would very likely return Alabama to a 6R-1D delegation as compared to the current 5R-2D division.

The Ohio Outlook

To see an interactive view of this 2026 Ohio Congressional Districts map, click on the image above or go to Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Ohio Elections

The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday, and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.

The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.

It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000-plus more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.

We can expect this year’s race to be expensive, and it will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.

The open Governor’s race, featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s COVID response, so expect her decision to advocate and implement a full shutdown during the pandemic to become a campaign issue.

In the US House campaigns in Ohio, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who won Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary, was also the nominee in 2024; in that ’24 contest, Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.

The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44 percent margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.

The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red-hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.

In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46 percent victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53 percent victory total.

Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net 10-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.

Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote against two opponents.

But the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.

Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.

Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49 percent victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Democrat Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.

The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.

In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.

It remains to be seen if Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.

Finally, in what is clearly a long-shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.

The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44 percent in the last election.

Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to fund other races.

Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.