Category Archives: Redistricting

CO-8: Another Battleground Campaign for Control of the US House

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 4, 2025

House

One certainty for the 2026 election cycle is that Colorado’s 8th Congressional District will again feature a competitive and hugely expensive campaign.

The Centennial State gained a new US House seat from the 2020 national reapportionment formula due to excessive population growth. The Colorado Independent Congressional Redistricting Commission members purposely drew the state’s new 8th CD as a highly competitive district that could go back and forth between the parties to reflect the electorate’s short-term political swings. So far, the district has performed as designed.

In the 2022 election, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, then a state Representative, won the 8th District’s initial election with a tight 48.4 – 47.7 percent victory margin over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Two years later, reflecting a more Republican trend in the marginal district, then-state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Caraveo by a similarly small victory spread, 48.9 – 48.2 percent.

The 2026 campaign has already drawn five Democratic candidates, including former Rep. Caraveo. Her campaign just released the results of the latest internal Public Policy Polling survey (May 19-20; 467 likely C0-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) that posts the former Congresswoman to a substantial early lead in the party primary.

According to the PPP ballot test, Caraveo would attract 36 percent support compared to state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) and State Treasurer Dave Young’s eight percent preference factor. State Rep. Shannon Bird (D-Westminster) and former teacher’s union president Amie Baca-Oehlert trail at five and four percent, respectively.

The Democratic primary is already attracting significant local media attention. A story has surfaced that Caraveo, a physician, had previously attempted suicide. The district also attracted early acclaim when Rutinel, the first announced candidate, raised just under $1.2 million in this year’s first quarter.

In contrast, Caraveo, who spent over $8.1 million for her 2024 campaign and ended with just over $4,300 remaining in her account as 2024 concluded, had just $330 cash-on-hand for the new campaign at the end of March. Her financial status, however, will soon change. State Treasurer Young and state Rep. Bird are recent entries into the race. Baca-Oehlert is soon expected to formally announce her candidacy.

For his part, Rep. Evans reported 2025 receipts through March 31 of just under $811,000 and showed slightly more than $755,000 in his cash-on-hand column. In 2024, Evans’ campaign spent just under $2.7 million in the challenger effort.

We can expect to see each side, when adding independent expenditures to the aggregate, spending as much as $25 million apiece. In 2024, outside spending in the CO-8 race totaled almost $17 million for the Democrats (61 percent spent on negative ads) and $12.2 million for the Republicans (90 percent negative) according to the Open Secrets organization reports.

The 8th District lies north and east of Denver and contains the larger cities of Thornton, Westminster, Greeley, and Commerce City, and wholly lies in parts of three counties, Adams (87 percent of county’s population), Larimer (five percent), and Weld (75 percent). President Joe Biden carried the 8th District in 2020 with a 50.8 – 46.3 percent margin. Two years later, President Donald Trump rebounded to defeat Kamala Harris here, 49.6 – 47.8 percent, again reflecting the district’s tight political nature.

It can be debated whether having such a marginal political district that guarantees hugely expensive congressional campaigns every two years is reflective of the good government intention that the redistricting commission members professed for their reasons of drawing such a district. Yet, so far the draw has produced the desired effect.

The Colorado redistricting system features three citizens commissions each constructed to draw a set of districts (i.e., congressional, state Senate, and state House of Representatives). Some believe this model has been the best of the states that employ commissions.

One reason for the positive reviews is the state Supreme Court has a defined role in the process. Once the commissions complete their respective maps, the finished plans automatically move to the state Supreme Court for legal review before the plans are finally adopted.

Having the court as part of the defined process has resulted in no redistricting lawsuits being filed in the state; therefore, yielding a much smoother process. Unlike many states, the Colorado process has now virtually guaranteed that the maps will stay in place for the entire decade consistent with the original redistricting intent.

Redistricting:
Lawsuits Filed in Wisconsin

Current Wisconsin Congressional Districts Map (Click to enlarge or go here: Legis.Wisconsin.Gov)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 15, 2025

Redistricting

The Down Ballot political blog is running a story indicating that two redistricting lawsuits have been filed against the Wisconsin congressional map. Changing the plan as the plaintiffs desire would likely lead to Republicans losing at least two members from the current delegation.

Redistricting was a focal point of state Supreme Court campaigns in the last two Wisconsin judicial election cycles. Democrats won the critical elections in 2023 and earlier this year to secure the liberal court majority.

Before the 2024 elections when Justice Janet Protasiewicz was elected, it appeared the court would redraw the congressional districts. Protasiewicz, running for the post in 2023, spoke repeatedly on the campaign trail about changing the congressional map. Her election gave the Democrats the majority they needed to do so, but they surprisingly stopped short. While redrawing the state Senate and Assembly district borders, the court left the congressional districts untouched without explanation.

Some political observers theorize that the court played a partisan game with the congressional district issue. The thought was the majority wanted to shield Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), on the ballot in 2024, from facing a more difficult opponent such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville). The Congressman had a multi-million dollar war chest that could have been wholly converted to a Senate campaign if his House district were made unwinnable for a Republican.

If this was even part of the reason that the court did not address the congressional districts, it may have been a sound partisan move. Sen. Baldwin won re-election over GOP businessman Eric Hovde with just an eight-tenths of one percent margin. Therefore, against a perceived more difficult opponent, the Senator could have easily lost. Thus, waiting an extra election cycle to redraw the federal plan may have paid the Democrats’ a dividend.

The principal argument for a redraw is the Republicans’ 6-2 majority in the Wisconsin congressional delegation. Democrats argue the map is a partisan gerrymander because Badger State elections often end with one party or the other winning races by one or two percentage points, or even less, as was the case for Sen. Baldwin in 2024. Partisan gerrymandering has been the subject of many cases, but it is still not fully determined whether a political party can, in effect, be considered a protected class.

A second lawsuit claims the districts have an uneven population and therefore need adjustment. This is an odd argument since all districts change throughout the course of a decade, thus every constructed political map is obsolete under this theory. This case, however, could allow the court to declare the map invalid without addressing the partisan gerrymandering issue.

It is most likely that the two most endangered Republicans under a redraw situation would be Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in the 1st and 3rd Districts, respectively.

The 1st CD lies in the far southeastern corner of Wisconsin bordering Illinois and Lake Michigan. It contains a small portion of Milwaukee County before moving south to annex Kenosha and Racine counties. It also contains parts of Rock and Walworth counties to the west. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat over Kamala Harris in 2024 with a 51.5 – 47.0 percent majority. Four years earlier, he topped President Biden 50.3 – 48.3 percent.

District 3 lies in the southwestern part of the state anchored in the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. The 3rd is comprised of 14 Wisconsin counties and parts of five others. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.5R, making it one of the most politically even seats in the country.

President Trump, however, outperformed the 3rd District stats in the past two elections, defeating Harris, 52.9 – 45.5 percent, and President Biden, 51.5 – 46.8 percent. Rep. Van Orden averaged 51.5 percent in his two victorious elections. Prior to the Republican winning two consecutive elections here, former Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented the district for 13 consecutive terms.

Sitting in between these districts is Rep. Mark Pocan’s (D-Town of Vermont; Madison) 2nd CD. It is here where the region’s Democrats reside. This district’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R and houses the most liberal county in the state, Dane, which contains the capital city of Madison and provides the district its population anchor (575,347 residents).

A possible boundary change would shift Democrats from Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) safe Democratic 4th District and move them south to the 1st. Various Republican and Democratic voters would then be swapped between the 1st and 2nd. In order to feed more Democrats into the 3rd, we would likely see more Democrats shifted from the 2nd and swapped for Republican voters.

The trick for the Democratic map drawers is to shift enough Democrats into both the 1st and 3rd to unseat Steil and Van Orden, while at the same time keeping enough in District 2 to keep Rep. Pocan’s seat safe. This may prove an interesting balancing act, and chances are that either Steil or Van Orden, or possibly both, will still have a fighting chance of winning re-election.

Assuming the court orders a congressional redraw in time for the 2026 election suggests Reps. Steil and Van Orden’s political circumstances will be far more difficult than what they face today.

Ohio May Check Wisconsin

Current Ohio Congressional Districts (click on map to see larger)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 4, 2025

Redistricting

Tuesday’s Wisconsin state Supreme Court election could well culminate in a redistricting effort that will change the state’s congressional districts. Considering the new high court’s personnel complexion, a redraw will likely mean the loss of two Republican seats.

Wisconsin, however, is not the only state that will or could undertake redistricting in 2025. Within Ohio’s unique and rather complex redistricting system, the current map must be changed before the 2026 elections.

Under the Buckeye State process, maps must be approved by a certain number of redistricting commission members from both parties before receiving three-fifths legislative approval. If a plan does not have sufficient bipartisan support, the district boundaries can still be passed into law with a majority vote in each state legislative chamber but will only stand for two election cycles.

Such was the case in the 2021-22 Ohio redistricting process; thus, the current map is only in place for the 2022 and 2024 election cycles. Therefore, the state must redraw the plan for the 2026 election and beyond.

Very likely, Wisconsin Republican Congressmen Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derek Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) will be in jeopardy once the redraw process begins, but a certain pair of Ohio Democratic House members may also face a similar problem.

At the end-point through the complex Ohio process, a majority could approve a new map without bipartisan support, but it would again only remain in place for two election cycles. This means, at least for the short-term, Republicans could theoretically make the Ohio congressional map even more to their partisan liking.

Today, two Democratic seats are politically marginal. Veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) has been in the House since her original election in 1982. She barely won re-election this past November, however (48.3 – 47.6 percent). Once her district was moved out of Cleveland and solely into central and northwestern Ohio, it became a much more competitive seat.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rated OH-9 as R+6. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculated the partisan lean in a bit different manner and found the 9th District in pure tossup territory (48.9D – 48.6R), which is the way it performed in 2024.

In the Akron area, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) was reelected with just 51 percent support last November. Her opponent in that election, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R), has already said that he will return for a rematch in 2026. Her 13th District is also very tight politically, one that Kamala Harris carried with only a 183-vote margin in the 2024 presidential election.

Ironically, according to The Down Ballot political blog analysis, Sykes, then a state Representative, and her father, former state Sen. Vernon Sykes, were two Democratic redistricting commission members who refused to vote in favor of the congressional map when it was drawn before the 2022 election. Because of their lack of support the map could only last four years, and now the plan may be re-drawn to Sykes personal detriment.

While the Democrats believe they can gain two seats in the Wisconsin delegation through a new redistricting, such an increase could be negated if the Ohio Republicans redraw Districts 9 and 13 in their partisan favor.

As we have seen many times, redistricting in the modern political era is no longer a once-in-a-decade happening. In fact, redistricting situations occurred throughout the last decade, and our current decennial appears no different.

In any event, it is quite possible that Reps. Steil, Van Orden, Kaptur, and Sykes may all soon be facing different and unfavorable district boundaries from which to seek re-election in 2026.

Potential Wisconsin Redistricting

Click map above to see full size.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025

Redistricting

If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?

Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.

In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.

Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.

Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.

At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.

If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.

With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.

Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.

To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.

A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.

Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.

The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.

This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.

US Supreme Court Hears
Louisiana Redistricting Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 26, 2025

House

The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) heard oral arguments Monday over the Louisiana redistricting process that led to the state hosting two Black districts, but the decade’s final map is yet to be decided.

So far, the process has led to the revival of a congressional district that was declared unconstitutional in 1994, which is a seat stretching all the way from Baton Rouge to Shreveport, which effectively cuts through the middle of House Speaker Mike Johnson’s 4th District.

Ironically, the member negatively affected when the seat was declared unconstitutional 30-plus years ago was then-Rep. Cleo Fields (D), who is also the beneficiary of the current draw. Fields, after serving two terms in the House, would later be elected to the state Senate, a body in which he served prior to his election to Congress. Once the same previously rejected congressional district configuration returned to the Louisiana map in 2023, it was again Fields who would run for the re-created 6th District and once more enter the US House of Representatives.

When the original 2021 congressional map was adopted, the partisan division again favored the GOP by a 5-1 count. Democratic plaintiffs went to a favorable federal district court in Baton Rouge to file their case, and Middle District Chief Judge Shelly Dick, an appointee of President Barack Obama, as predicted, ruled in their favor. The map was returned to the legislature for a redraw with the instruction to craft a second Black district. The new map forced then-Rep. Garret Graves (R) to retire, which virtually assured Fields of returning to Congress.

Republicans then filed a constitutional challenge to the new 6th District, citing the court’s rejection of such a draw in 1994, and a three-judge federal panel constituted to hear the case ruled in favor of the GOP plaintiffs and declared the map a gerrymander, just as was determined 30 years earlier.

The ruling was then sent to the Supreme Court where a summary affirmation of the lower court ruling was expected. In a surprise pre-election ruling, however, the high court stayed the case with the six Republican justices voting in favor of the stay and the three Democrats opposing. The stay cost the Republicans a seat, and almost the party’s small majority.

Monday’s hearing featured a long, very active, and at times intense session with even Justice Elena Kagan jumping in to answer a question from Justice Sam Alito before the presenting attorney could answer, and Justice Brett Kavanaugh asking whether the time had come to “sunset the Voting Rights Act.”

Unless the court now decides to summarily affirm the three-judge panel ruling, which they can still do, we can expect a final decision on this case at the end of the session in June. Regardless of how the court rules, it will affect the 2026 congressional elections and also the House majority because of the slim 220-215 eventual edge the Republicans will likely hold once the vacancies are filled barring any special election upsets.

If the court rules in favor of the current state map, Democrats will hold their second seat in the Louisiana delegation. If the high court ultimately upholds the three-judge panel ruling, then the state’s plan will become void and the map would return to the panel for a redraw, assuming the legislature does not step in and issue an alternative congressional plan.

Should the legislature not take action, and it’s unlikely they will be in session when SCOTUS decides the case, the three-judge panel will draw a new map, which will probably lead to a GOP gain of one seat. Such a move would likely return the delegation to a 5R-1D split along with returning Speaker Johnson to a more compact and undivided district.

Once again, Louisiana is in the forefront of a redistricting drama battle. It remains to be seen how this chapter ultimately ends.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.