Tag Archives: California

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Oklahoma Primary Preview;
Today’s CA-14 Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Oklahoma

The Sooner State holds elections today in addition to the Alabama and Georgia runoffs we covered yesterday. Should no Oklahoma candidate secure majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff election.

With then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) leaving office to become Homeland Security Secretary, we will now see an open Oklahoma US Senate campaign. Under state law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to participate in the succeeding general election. Therefore, appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) will serve only until the next Congress begins in January 2027.

The clear favorite to win the Republican nomination and then the general election is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa). All the national and state party leaders have endorsed Rep. Hern including President Trump and term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Four other Republicans are competing for the nomination, but it will be surprising if Rep. Hern fails to win outright.

The open Governor’s race, however, will very likely go to a runoff. Nine Republicans are vying for the party nomination.

The latest polling suggests a four-way contest among Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former State Budget Secretary and ex-state Sen. Mike Mazzei, and former State Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, the son of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (1995-2003); Keating was previously an Associate US Attorney General in the Reagan Administration. Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall, who led early in polling but has since dropped back, also is a candidate.

In Oklahoma’s US House races, the four remaining Republican incumbents, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman), and Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) will all win renomination tonight. Each are solid favorites to win another term in the general election.

In Rep. Hern’s open Tulsa-anchored 1st District, we see a crowded 10-person Republican primary. Three appear as strong candidates. Pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer, who President Trump and the Republican leadership support, is viewed as the leading contender. State Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) and businessman Nathan Butterfield are also competitive candidates. Two of these three advancing to a runoff election is a likelihood.

The lone Democratic candidate is Tulsa School Board member John Croisant. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the November election.

CA-14

Another of the current cycle’s special congressional elections continues today. The contest is in California’s East San Francisco Bay area Congressional District 14 from which ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after a series of scandalous behavior incidents became known, mostly involving unwanted advances individually against multiple women.

Under California special election procedure, all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation or stated preference. If a candidate attracts majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers advance to a special general election. In this case, the special general election, if necessary, is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Two weeks ago, in the regular California 2026 primary election, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) placed first in the jungle primary but with 38.3 percent of the vote within a field of nine candidates. Irrespective of how the special election concludes, Sen. Wahab will advance to the 2026 regular election against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez (17.2 percent), a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board Member and a former city of Dublin mayor.

For the special election, the winner of which will serve the balance of former Rep. Swalwell’s term, 11 candidates are on the ballot, including Sen. Wahab and Hernandez.

It would not be surprising to see a similar result to what we saw in the June 2 primary with Wahab and Hernandez finishing first and second, but far below the necessary 50 percent plateau necessary toward immediately assuming the seat.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 14th District’s partisan lean is and overwhelming 68.4D – 30.6R, meaning a Republican candidate would have virtually no chance to win an election here.

The 14th CD sits on the southeast side of the Bay sandwiched in between the cities of Oakland and San Jose. The major population centers are the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The East Bay region has been in Democratic hands consecutively since the 1974 election. Three individuals, all Democrats, represented the area during that time. They are, Reps. Norm Mineta, Fortney H. “Pete” Stark, and Swalwell.

A New Congressman

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 4, 2026

US House

California Congressman-Elect James Gallagher (R-Yuba City)

Lost in the shuffle of the nation’s major June 2 primary night was the election of new California Congressman-Elect James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) in the state’s 1st District.

With approximately 60 percent of the district votes tabulated, Gallagher, a member of the state Assembly, was declared the special election winner outright with a current vote total of 62.6 percent. Under the elongated California ballot counting system, the state has seven more days to finish the count and certify the results.

The outright win means Gallagher will immediately be sworn into the House upon certification of his election. He replaces the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) who passed away suddenly in early January.

Gallagher won his seat on Tuesday night under the old 2021 map in northern California’s 1st CD, which stretched from the Oregon border almost to Sacramento and then from the city of Redding east to Nevada, was a safely Republican domain. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations, 1st District version yielded a Republican advantage of 60.2R – 37.7D.

Under the new California map, the 1st District was substantially changed. The major difference was adding Sonoma County, a larger Democratic domain in the heart of the California wine country. Sonoma became part of CD-1 under the direction of then-state Senate President Mike McGuire (D), who hails from the county. Its addition and the removal of some smaller Republican leaning counties to the north drastically changes the partisan lean and gives the Democrats the clear advantage, 55.2D – 44.1R.

Therefore, both Assemblyman Gallagher and Sen. McGuire on Tuesday ran in two elections in two different districts, the special and the regular jungle primary. The new map, of course, is for the regular term. In Tuesday’s qualifying primary, with just over 50 percent of the ballots counted, Gallagher is leading this contest, too, 47.2 – 37.4 percent over Sen. McGuire.

While Assemblyman Gallagher is in first place at this juncture, the total Democratic vote exceeds the total Republican vote among the six candidates. The aggregate Democratic total, at this point, is just over 51 percent.

While the district is designed to elect a Democrat, namely Sen. McGuire, we could actually see a high level of competition come November. The new 1st District is comprised of all or parts of nine counties.

At this point, it appears that Gallagher is comfortably ahead in seven of the nine counties; McGuire and Gallagher are close in Mendocino County, and Sen. McGuire is well ahead in Sonoma, the biggest population entity in the new 1st District.

The new 1st CD party registration figures show 40.7 percent of the voters as Democratic Party members and 31.1 percent as Republicans. Members of the conservative American Independent Party account for 5.2 percent with another 1.4 percent as Libertarians. This brings the right-of-center total to 37.7 percent of the 1st District total.

Added to the left-of-center coalition are the Green Party members with 0.7 percent of the registration total and the Peace and Freedom Party members with 0.6 percent. The two additions bring the left-of-center aggregate total to 42 percent of the registered voting universe.

Most of the remainder are in the Declined to State category – or Independents or Non-Affiliated voters – as they are characterized in most other states. Therefore, under the right circumstances in which the center-right becomes more energized than the center-left, the general election. even in a district designed to elect a Democrat, could become highly competitive.

Gallagher’s special election victory brings the current US House total to 218 Republicans with one Independent, California Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento), caucusing with the Republicans to bring their total to 219. The Democrats have 212 and four seats are vacant.

The next special election is scheduled for June 16 in California’s East San Francisco Bay 14th District to replace resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D). All candidates are placed on one jungle election ballot. If no one receives majority support, a runoff election between the top two finishers is scheduled for Aug. 18.

The other special election is scheduled in Georgia’s 13th District to replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Like the California election, the GA-13 special will place all candidates on one ballot in a July 28 election. If no one secures a majority, the runoff between the top two finishers is scheduled for Aug. 25.

The other two vacancies – FL-20 (Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick-D, who resigned) and TX-23 (Rep. Tony Gonzales-R, who also resigned) – remain vacant at the current time with no special election schedule announced.

Yesterday’s Primary Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Voters in six states, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, cast their nomination ballots yesterday and what follows are the key results and analysis.

The night was particularly bad for two US House members attempting to run statewide. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) fell to investment company executive Zach Lahn in the open Republican gubernatorial primary, and South Dakota at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell), after leading in early polling, failed to even qualify for the gubernatorial runoff election in his state.

California

The Governor and Los Angeles Mayor’s contests dominated the pre-election coverage. With only about half the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the huge 60-person field. Closely behind is former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 22-year congressional veteran Xavier Becerra.

When all the votes are counted, which could be weeks from now, it appears that both men will advance into the general election.

Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is in third place, but it appears his effort to reach the general election will fail. The same for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), who for a time, was in competition for one of the runoff slots. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) will also be eliminated.

In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) will be forced to a runoff election. It appears she will secure less than 40 percent of the vote when all ballots are counted. Advancing to the November runoff appears to be upstart Republican Spencer Pratt. His vote percentage likely places him far enough ahead of LA City Councilwoman Nithya Raman to secure the second slot.

Though Mayor Bass performed poorly for an incumbent and is clearly unpopular since almost 64 percent of the people chose another candidate, Los Angeles’ strong Democratic voting history suggests that Pratt will have a very difficult time unseating her in the general election. Still, a Republican finishing a credible second in a LA Mayor’s race is notable.

There is a new US House member in the California delegation. Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the 1st District special election outright, and he will immediately be sworn into office to finish the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R) term.

Gallagher, though finishing first in the new 1st District regular primary, which is much different than the seat in which he clinched the special election, will be considered at least a slight underdog in the general against state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) even though the latter man fell short of expectations in yesterday’s voting.

Because only half the votes are counted, it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the House races unfolded. It does appear, however, that veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) will advance to the November general election with another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang. This is a race to watch in November.

Other Democratic members falling below the 50 percent mark in the jungle primary will still do well in the general election because they are drawing Republican opponents and not other Democrats.

For the Republicans, in the southern California pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra), both will advance to the general election. Calvert, however, has a large lead heading into the general election campaign.

The other general election contest to watch is in San Diego where County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) clinched the first runoff position and will face San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D), who was a distant second. This open seat race, though designed to elect a Democrat, will be very close in November.

Finally, in the race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco congressional district, as expected, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Franciso) and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) will both advance to the general election.

Iowa

As mentioned above, the Republican gubernatorial winner was technology company executive Zach Lahn. He will face State Auditor Rob Sand (D), who was unopposed in the Democratic primary. This will be a very competitive general election pairing.

As expected, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) will square off in the US Senate general election. Democrats need to make this a competitive race to have a chance at taking the Senate majority. Rep. Hinson begins the general election campaign as the favorite.

Three of the state’s four congressional races will be competitive. The open 2nd District also went as predicted. Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell easily won the Republican primary as did state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) in the Democratic primary.

The 1st District will see the third version of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Cynthia Bohannan (D) opposing each other. The Congresswoman performed much better in yesterday’s Republican primary (over 70 percent of the vote) as compared to her 2024 standing.

Montana

As expected, former US Attorney Scott Alme easily won the Republican US Senate primary. He will be favored to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R).

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is retiring and his chosen replacement, radio talk show host Aaron Flint, won the 1st District Republican primary. It will likely be some time before the Democratic nominee is officially elected. The initial vote totals show a tight finish between smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag and former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse.

New Jersey

The key race on the New Jersey ballot is the 7th Congressional District, and the Democratic primary went as expected. The easy winner against a crowded field is businesswoman and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett. She will now challenge two-term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who has been absent from the House for over two months related to an undisclosed heath situation. This race is a key national Democratic conversion opportunity.

In the open 12th District, where the Democratic primary winner was a lock to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), physician Adam Hamawy claimed the party nomination. He is now the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

New Mexico

Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland is the landslide Democratic gubernatorial primary winner here, defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman to secure the party nomination. She becomes a heavy favorite to win the open November race against new Republican nominee Gregg Hull, the Rio Rancho Mayor.

In the competitive 2nd District, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) will challenge two-term Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces).

South Dakota

The South Dakota Governor’s race was the second to see a businessman defeat established political figures. Businessman Toby Doeden advances to a July 28 Republican runoff likely against Gov. Larry Rhoden, who is on the ballot seeking a full term in his own right after succeeding Kristi Noem when she resigned to accept a position in the Trump Administration. Congressman Dusty Johnson (D-Mitchell) is close behind in third position but will not likely receive enough late votes to overtake the Governor for second position.

In the state’s lone House race, multi-term Attorney General Marty Jackley, as expected, was a landslide Republican primary winner. He will go onto capture the general election in November and enter the new Congress at the beginning of January.

Florida Rep. Wilson to Retire;
Today’s Primary Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 2, 2026

FL-24

Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson

Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement for several weeks, and yesterday the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House. Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent from Congress for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery.

During her absence from the House, Rep. Wilson had continued to say she would seek re-election but now replies she was only being “politically strategic,” according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog. Wilson explained that her earlier statements were intended to avoid giving map drawers any incentive to dismantle her district during the redistricting process.

Rep. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving 12 years in the state legislature. Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81 percent of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

There are now 67 open US House seats – 38 from the Republican column and 23 from the Democratic side. An additional six seats were created through various new redistricting maps. Of the 67 openings, however, only 29 members are voluntarily retiring from elective politics (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats).

Today’s Primary Notes

Several late‑breaking stories are emerging just ahead of today’s major primary election day.

First, in Iowa, a surprising poll is charting new data waters. In the open Republican gubernatorial primary, JMC Analytics released their latest Iowa survey (May 27-28; 550 likely Iowa Republican primary voters; live interview), which posts investment executive Zach Lahn to a small 27-24 percent lead over Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City); Lahn may be in position to score an upset tonight.

The only other published poll of the GOP primary came in April from Victory Enterprises (April 14–15; 500 likely Iowa Republican primary voters). That survey showed Rep. Feenstra holding a commanding 41-8 percent lead over Lahn.

The Republican primary winner will then face State Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election promises to be highly competitive. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term.

In California, several survey research firms have recently tested the gubernatorial jungle primary. Earlier in the cycle, most polling suggested that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance to the general election. Now, however, there is growing uncertainty about whether Hilton might be edged out, potentially allowing two Democrats to qualify instead.

To recap, California places all candidates on a single primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote percentage, advance to the general election.

Four polls were conducted between May 26 and 28 by four different research firms. While all show the top three candidates – Hilton, former Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer – tightly clustered, there is no clear consensus on which two will advance to the general election. All three consistently fall within each survey’s margin of error.

It is clear the result will be extremely close, and it is possible that weeks could pass before we know definitively which two candidates advance to the general election. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, largely because election officials allow ballots to be received and counted well after Election Day. In fact, the Secretary of State has 36 days to tally and certify all ballots.

Therefore, late‑breaking developments in both Iowa and California suggest that the Governors’ races in these states could produce unpredictable outcomes. The Iowa results will likely be known tonight, but the California counting process is expected to be lengthy.

California Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 28, 2026

Today, our state reviews of the upcoming June 2 primary elections begin. Voters in six states will finish casting their ballots on Tuesday, and we begin the analysis series with the California qualifying election.

In the Golden State, all candidates are on the same initial June election ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentages attained, advance to the general election.

Holding partisan primaries are the states of Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tomorrow, we look at the Iowa and Montana nomination elections, and Monday we conclude with New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Governor

The open California Governor’s race has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning. With 60 candidates on the ballot, it appeared for a time that Republicans had a chance to clinch the two general election ballot positions because the dominant Democratic vote appeared to be split among so many candidates. Such, however, is no longer the case because Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) has fallen off the pace.

The most recent polling suggests that former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the favorite to capture the first general election ballot position, while the second position looks to be a toss up between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and billionaire Tom Steyer (D).

The party leadership began to coalesce around Becerra after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) was forced out of the race, but they have failed to establish him as the clear leader or second-place candidate. Steyer, spending what could be as much as $200 million of his own money on the campaign, is a viable contender.

Whichever Democrat captures second position will automatically become the favorite to win the general election in heavily Democratic California. The only scenario where a Republican could win a statewide office here is if two Republicans would clinch the pair of general election ballot positions.

CA-1

The 1st District election is very complicated. In fact, there are two 1st Districts and two elections on June 2. The first election comes in the former 1st District and is a special vote to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) for the balance of the current term.

The second election is the regular jungle primary in a reconfigured Democratic 1st District. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored in the special election. If he receives majority support, he will take the seat immediately and serve until the end of the current Congress.

In the regular primary, state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) is favored to finish first and Gallagher, second. Both will advance to the general election where McGuire will be favored in a district that he drew himself as the then-President of the California Senate.

CA-3 & 6

Redistricting has caused Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Kevin Kiley (NPP-Rocklin) to trade districts. Rep. Bera will now be favored for re-election in District 3, while Rep. Kiley, now running under the No Party Preference label as opposed to Republican, will attempt to win re-election in new District 6.

Both seats are now Democratic under the new redistricting map, so Rep. Kiley becomes a decided underdog to a Democrat who will likely finish first, probably former state Sen. Richard Pan.

CA-7

The Sacramento-anchored 7th District features veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D) and Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D). This is one of the races around the country where a younger Democrat is challenging an elderly incumbent. Both women are expected to advance into the general election for a double-Democratic runoff.

Rep. Matsui was elected in a March 2005 special election after her husband, Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. The Congressman was serving his 14th term in the House when he died suddenly on New Year’s Day in 2005. Together, the Matsui’s have held the congressional seat consecutively since 1979.

CA-11

The battle to succeed former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) is likely to yield a double-Democratic runoff. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) is expected to secure the first general election ballot position.

Earlier, it appeared that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) initial campaign manager, Saikat Chakrabarti (D), was in position to secure second place, but a Pelosi endorsement of San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) has helped propel her into second position according to the most recent polling data.

Irrespective of which of the three clinch the two general election positions, we will see a double-Democrat November election.

CA-13

Freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) and former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) are expected to advance into the general election in a revamped 13th District. The seat is slightly more Democratic but will be competitive in November.

CA-14

State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) is expected to succeed resigned Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore). A special election to fill the balance of the term will be held on June 16. Sen. Wahab is expected to secure majority support to win the contest outright. Tuesday’s primary will send her and possibly another Democrat into the regular general election. Sen. Wahab faces eight opponents in the regular election.

CA-22

The 22nd District is the most Democratic seat in the nation that sends a Republican, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford), to the US House. Ironically, the 22nd is slightly more Republican after redistricting.

Rep. Valadao will secure one of the general election ballot positions on Tuesday and face either state Assemblywoman and physician Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) or Visalia School Board Trustee and college professor Randy Villegas (D).

CA-26

Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village) is retiring, and state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) is her likely successor. Four Republicans and three Democrats are vying for the second general election position.

CA-38

The new 38th District is an open seat created in the new redistricting plan. The winner will be Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) who is a lock to place first in both Tuesday’s qualifying election and in November.

CA-40

The new 40th CD is one of just four Republican seats designed in the new California redistricting map. Two Republican incumbents are competing for the seat, Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). A third viable candidate is contemporary art gallery owner Esther Kim-Varet (D). Four other Democrats and a No Party Preference candidate are also on the ballot.

One of the two incumbents will eventually win the seat, but it is a question as to whether both Reps. Calvert and Kim advance to the general election. Rep. Calvert represents more of the new district and leads in the latest polling, but Rep. Kim has more financial resources.

CA-45

Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) is on the ballot for a second term. He was an upset winner against then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in 2024. When the former Congresswoman declined to seek a rematch, five Republicans, including three local Orange County officials, jumped into the race. Expect this to be a competitive general election irrespective of which Republican secures the second ballot position on Tuesday.

CA-48

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring, and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is the likely first place finisher in a district that only slightly tips to the Democrats under the new redistricting plan.

Nine Democrats are competing for the seat, and it is possible that the vote could be split to the point of allowing Republican businessman Kevin O’Neill to slip into second position. If one of the Democrats advances against Supervisor Desmond, the result will be a competitive general election.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

CA-48: Competitive Without Issa

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 27, 2026

House

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R)

Texas and California have attracted the most attention when it comes to 2026 mid-decade redistricting, and a newly released poll highlights one of the seats that Democrats had marked as a major California target.

Survey USA has published fresh data for California’s new 48th CD anchored in San Diego County. This is one of the Republican‑held seats that Democrats substantially re-drew during the state’s redistricting process.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is not seeking re-election. After the Congressman announced his retirement plans, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) shifted his campaign from challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) in District 49 to running for the open 48th.

The switch was strategically logical: the 48th leans more Republican than the 49th, Desmond avoids facing a four‑term incumbent, and the district includes a much larger portion of his current supervisorial constituency.

Dave’s Redistricting App rates the new 48th at 50.6D – 48.7R, a notable shift from the previous version’s 58.3R – 39.8D. Even so, the new draw remains competitive for a Republican candidate.

The latest S-USA survey signals that this seat may be more difficult for Democrats to flip the map drawers originally professed. The poll (April 14-19; 500 likely CA-48 jungle primary voters; live interview & text) shows Desmond leading with 25 percent, followed by another Republican, businessman Kevin O’Neill, at 13 percent. The fact that this study raises the possibility that two Republicans could qualify for the general election is a significant development.

Under California’s top‑two “jungle primary” system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, and the first and second place finishers regardless of party and percentage attained move on to the November general election. With nine Democrats, two Republicans, and one No Party Preference candidate in the race, the Democratic vote could split widely enough for Desmond and O’Neill to finish first and second, thus effectively shutting the Democrats out of the general election.

The leading Democrat, frequent candidate Ammar Campo-Najjar, posts 12 percent support in the Survey USA poll. When combining all candidates by party, Republicans collectively draw 38 percent in the ballot test and Democrats 37 percent. Based on these early numbers, the 48th District appears to be a genuine toss‑up and a contest likely to attract national attention as the cycle progresses.

Republicans would likely be somewhat stronger if Rep. Issa sought re-election, though the advantage would be limited. The new 48th District includes areas the Congressman does not currently represent, particularly a significant portion of Riverside County.

Supervisor Desmond’s district includes the northern portion of San Diego County that falls within the new 48th, including key population centers such as part of the city of Escondido and the San Marcos municipality. The latter entity, in particular, is where Desmond’s presence as the leading GOP candidate provides an advantage. While the current 48th does not include San Marcos – a city of nearly 100,000 residents – the new 48th does, and Supervisor Desmond already represents that community.

The 48th’s Riverside County portion, where none of the candidates from either party hold elected office, is more Democratic-leaning, due in part to the inclusion of the Palm Springs area and several desert communities.

The new California map has been framed as one that could deliver five additional seats to Democrats. However, with Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District actually becoming several points more Republican than the current configuration where he has twice won, and the GOP maintaining at least a competitive chance in District 48 with Desmond, the net gain could conceivably be closer to three seats rather than five.

Steyer Declares War

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 16, 2026

Governor

California businessman and investor Tom Steyer / Facebook photo

Just two days after Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) dropped out of the California Governor’s race and then announced his resignation from the US House over sexual assault accusations, Democratic gubernatorial and billionaire businessman and investor Tom Steyer, who could become the race’s leading candidate, made an unorthodox and controversial campaign move.

Steyer, who has already spent over $90 million of his personal wealth to promote his gubernatorial campaign has a chance to become the top Democratic candidate and qualify for the general election in the state’s top two primary system.

Party leaders are concerned that the primary vote would be split among so many Democratic candidates (23) that two Republicans, namely former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could capture first and second place. Such a result would freeze any Democratic candidates from advancing to the general election.

The shutout fear also explains why party leaders were beginning to coalesce around Swalwell, believing he had the best chance of securing a general election qualifying position. Now, without him in the race, the party leaders need to focus on another candidate to avoid the shutout.

Tom Steyer is a former presidential candidate who began as an Independent but later became a Democrat. He is a controversial figure, and one not likely to commit his complete allegiance to party leaders as readily as would many of the other Democratic contenders.

The Steyer new policy objective declares war on ICE and advocates the following principles in his released plan:

Abolish ICE – Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob.”
Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.”
Give the California Attorney General the power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership.
Have taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens.
Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal government’s failure.

Launching such a controversial policy statement, and one that is extreme even by California standards, may prove the exact wrong strategy to employ just when he could now move to the top of the massive 62-person candidate field.

It is important to remember that all voters are eligible to participate in the June 2 qualifying election, not just Democratic Party members as would be the case in a closed primary; going to extremes on the immigration issue, then, even to the point of basically declaring civil war on the federal government, may not be a successful proposition.

While California is one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, and a party candidate’s victory in the 2026 general election is already viewed as a foregone conclusion by most political observers, a Democrat finalist’s margin in some statewide campaigns is not insurmountable.

Most Republican candidates attract about 40 percent of the general election vote, and most Democratic winners secure their statewide positions in the high 50s.

Therefore, while the Democratic base is certainly anti-ICE, it may be a stretch for Steyer to assume that the majority of even California Democratic voters want to jail law enforcement officers, bring back deported aliens, ignore the US Supreme Court, and virtually break the state away from the United States.

The Steyer immigration policy document now brings yet another point of controversy into the California Governor’s campaign and may open the door for another Democrat to emerge as the party’s top candidate. Such a Democratic candidate might better attract traditional party support and gain the necessary momentum to overtake Steyer and secure a general election position.

Or, these latest turn of events in the California Governor’s campaign could lend more credence to the idea that a pair of Republicans, Hilton the Fox News host, or Bianco the law enforcement officer, could actually secure both general election slots and shut out the entire Democratic field for the general election.

California’s 1st District:
A Tale of Two Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 23, 2026

House

Northern California’s 1st Congressional District. See interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Rep. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R).

It was thought that when Gallagher announced, he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2 and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win.

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Gallagher would not enter the regular election and McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11. Gallagher actually entered the regular term race and McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats. But, with few options, Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move — and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed — was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district. Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat — non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney — also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect.

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot, and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an Aug. 4 runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign. Now it will be more difficult for Gallagher to reach 50 percent because Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2 regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained.

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (Feb. 24-28; 700 likely CA-1 regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30 percent margin with Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.