Tag Archives: Wisconsin

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Race Update

2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

2024 Election Results

The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.

Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.

With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.

In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.

It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.

A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.

California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.

Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.

Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.

Outstanding Seats

The races not yet called are:

  • AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
  • AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
  • CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
  • CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
  • CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
  • CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
  • CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
  • CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
  • CA-47 (Open seat-D)
  • CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
  • CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
  • OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
  • WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)

Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).

Election Result Quick Analysis

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024

2024 Election

Heading into the election, it appeared that either party still had the opportunity to score a legislative trifecta. That is winning the presidency, the Senate, and the House. At this point, it appears the Republicans may have achieved such a goal.

Former President Donald Trump has been projected the winner of the 2024 presidential contest by retaining all 25 states that voted for him in both 2016 and 2020, along with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. He held his weakest state, North Carolina, and then converted Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to, at this writing, record 277 electoral votes, or seven more than necessary to clinch the national election. Still outstanding are Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and Trump leads in each.

The Republicans are on the threshold of major gains in the Senate. As predicted, the open West Virginia seat was first to fall to the GOP in the person of Gov. Jim Justice. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) then went down to defeat at the hands of Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) then unseated Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.

The races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain uncalled. It appears the GOP’s best opportunity now lies in Pennsylvania. The others may swing toward the Democratic candidate. Therefore, the Republicans will at least have a 52-seat majority, and maybe 53.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears poised to defeat Republican Kari Lake and return retiring Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat to the Democratic column. In another competitive race, New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) successfully won a third term, and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to keep the open Free State Senate seat in the Democratic caucus.

The House majority remains undecided, but Republicans appear to stand a good chance of hanging onto their slim majority. It could be several weeks before we see final totals in the competitive California races that feature four Republicans who sit in Democratic seats fighting for survival. Republican Scott Baugh has a slight lead in the open Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for the Senate.

The GOP also has a chance to unseat Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) as Republican Nick Begich III continues to hold a lead hovering around 50 percent. Should he exceed that total, he will avoid the Ranked Choice Voting round. It also appears that Alaskans have repealed the Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system and will return to partisan primaries. Thus, the at-large congressional race is likely the last time we will see the RCV system coming into play. The Alaska seat is the most Republican district in the country that currently elects a Democratic House member.

Depending upon the final outcome of the California and Arizona races, which are likely weeks away from final determination, they will tell us whether the Republicans have held their slim House majority. It appears the party has only suffered a very small number of incumbent defeats, which is the key to maintaining chamber control.

Holding the House would award the Republicans a legislative trifecta and certainly give President-Elect Trump a political mandate. It is also probable that Mr. Trump will carry the national popular vote, and that may be the 2024 election’s biggest surprise.

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Senate Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024

Senate

Montana GOP senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy

With early voting churning forward and the election a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority.

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (Oct. 23-25; 1,000 likely Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39 percent, the Senate race, at 50-46 percent and 51-48 percent when “leaners” to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47 percent. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43 percent of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count.

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are one-and-a-half points stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, 10 polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers.

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous 10 October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down — 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46 percent suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points.

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace here of four years ago.

As you can see, many more Senate races are becoming interesting.

VA-2 Up for Grabs; Bishop Rebounds in GA-2; One-Point Race in ME-2; & A One-Point Lead for Baldwin in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 28, 2024

House

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach)

VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status — A Christopher Newport University survey (Oct. 11-20; 800 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45 percent, in a district that former President Donald Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the modeled party calculation shows the Democratic participation rate up two points, the Republicans so far down two points, and the Independents off 1.5 percent from the 2020 totals. Yet, the rural vote is up five points, the suburban participation also up five, and the urban sector down just under nine points. All of this means, at least at this point in the projection process, that we will see a close finish.

GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds — After the co/efficient polling firm last week produced a ballot test finding veteran Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey that posts the congressman to an 11-point lead.

The PPP data (Oct. 17-18; 400 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Bishop’s lead at 51-40 percent. The latter data is certainly more in line with the district voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race — Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters) sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45 percent count.

Ranked Choice Voting, in this situation, may not play a role in the outcome because the ballot will feature only these two candidates. There is a qualified write-in contender, but it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives would be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50 percent. Without a ballot presence, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race. This could give the Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge — A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7 percent.

Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or one-point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.