Tag Archives: Wisconsin

Redistricting:
Lawsuits Filed in Wisconsin

Current Wisconsin Congressional Districts Map (Click to enlarge or go here: Legis.Wisconsin.Gov)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 15, 2025

Redistricting

The Down Ballot political blog is running a story indicating that two redistricting lawsuits have been filed against the Wisconsin congressional map. Changing the plan as the plaintiffs desire would likely lead to Republicans losing at least two members from the current delegation.

Redistricting was a focal point of state Supreme Court campaigns in the last two Wisconsin judicial election cycles. Democrats won the critical elections in 2023 and earlier this year to secure the liberal court majority.

Before the 2024 elections when Justice Janet Protasiewicz was elected, it appeared the court would redraw the congressional districts. Protasiewicz, running for the post in 2023, spoke repeatedly on the campaign trail about changing the congressional map. Her election gave the Democrats the majority they needed to do so, but they surprisingly stopped short. While redrawing the state Senate and Assembly district borders, the court left the congressional districts untouched without explanation.

Some political observers theorize that the court played a partisan game with the congressional district issue. The thought was the majority wanted to shield Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D), on the ballot in 2024, from facing a more difficult opponent such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville). The Congressman had a multi-million dollar war chest that could have been wholly converted to a Senate campaign if his House district were made unwinnable for a Republican.

If this was even part of the reason that the court did not address the congressional districts, it may have been a sound partisan move. Sen. Baldwin won re-election over GOP businessman Eric Hovde with just an eight-tenths of one percent margin. Therefore, against a perceived more difficult opponent, the Senator could have easily lost. Thus, waiting an extra election cycle to redraw the federal plan may have paid the Democrats’ a dividend.

The principal argument for a redraw is the Republicans’ 6-2 majority in the Wisconsin congressional delegation. Democrats argue the map is a partisan gerrymander because Badger State elections often end with one party or the other winning races by one or two percentage points, or even less, as was the case for Sen. Baldwin in 2024. Partisan gerrymandering has been the subject of many cases, but it is still not fully determined whether a political party can, in effect, be considered a protected class.

A second lawsuit claims the districts have an uneven population and therefore need adjustment. This is an odd argument since all districts change throughout the course of a decade, thus every constructed political map is obsolete under this theory. This case, however, could allow the court to declare the map invalid without addressing the partisan gerrymandering issue.

It is most likely that the two most endangered Republicans under a redraw situation would be Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in the 1st and 3rd Districts, respectively.

The 1st CD lies in the far southeastern corner of Wisconsin bordering Illinois and Lake Michigan. It contains a small portion of Milwaukee County before moving south to annex Kenosha and Racine counties. It also contains parts of Rock and Walworth counties to the west. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the district’s partisan lean is 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat over Kamala Harris in 2024 with a 51.5 – 47.0 percent majority. Four years earlier, he topped President Biden 50.3 – 48.3 percent.

District 3 lies in the southwestern part of the state anchored in the cities of La Crosse and Eau Claire. The 3rd is comprised of 14 Wisconsin counties and parts of five others. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean is 48.9D – 48.5R, making it one of the most politically even seats in the country.

President Trump, however, outperformed the 3rd District stats in the past two elections, defeating Harris, 52.9 – 45.5 percent, and President Biden, 51.5 – 46.8 percent. Rep. Van Orden averaged 51.5 percent in his two victorious elections. Prior to the Republican winning two consecutive elections here, former Rep. Ron Kind (D) represented the district for 13 consecutive terms.

Sitting in between these districts is Rep. Mark Pocan’s (D-Town of Vermont; Madison) 2nd CD. It is here where the region’s Democrats reside. This district’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R and houses the most liberal county in the state, Dane, which contains the capital city of Madison and provides the district its population anchor (575,347 residents).

A possible boundary change would shift Democrats from Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) safe Democratic 4th District and move them south to the 1st. Various Republican and Democratic voters would then be swapped between the 1st and 2nd. In order to feed more Democrats into the 3rd, we would likely see more Democrats shifted from the 2nd and swapped for Republican voters.

The trick for the Democratic map drawers is to shift enough Democrats into both the 1st and 3rd to unseat Steil and Van Orden, while at the same time keeping enough in District 2 to keep Rep. Pocan’s seat safe. This may prove an interesting balancing act, and chances are that either Steil or Van Orden, or possibly both, will still have a fighting chance of winning re-election.

Assuming the court orders a congressional redraw in time for the 2026 election suggests Reps. Steil and Van Orden’s political circumstances will be far more difficult than what they face today.

House Overview – Part IV

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 28, 2025

House

Part IV concludes our House Overview analysis. Today’s edition covers districts in Ohio through Wisconsin. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Ohio

OH-9 — Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) was originally elected to Congress in 1982 and ranks as the fourth-most senior member of the House. In a western Ohio Toledo-anchored 9th District that no longer stretches to Cleveland to provide more Democrats, Kaptur has had two recent competitive elections, and particularly so in 2024.

The veteran Congresswoman was re-elected with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent victory margin over then-state Representative Derek Merrin. It remains to be seen if Merrin returns for a re-match, but the Republicans are again guaranteed to field a strong candidate.

The wild card for Ohio congressional races is the impending redistricting. The state has one of the most complicated redistricting systems involving a legislative commission, a vote in the full legislature, and a statute that allows the districts to stand for only a four-year period if a vote of less than three-fifths of the legislature votes to adopt. That happened in 2021, so the congressional lines are supposed to be redrawn before the 2026 election. The new map will definitely have a major effect upon the 9th District race.

OH-13 — The redistricting situation could be definitive for Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) as she runs for a third term. In November, the Congresswoman recorded only a 51-49 percent victory margin over former state legislator Kevin Coughlin (R). The 2026 race will again be competitive since Coughlin has already announced he will return for a re-match.

Pennsylvania

PA-7 — Freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie) unseated three-term Rep. Susan Wild (D) in November with a one-point margin. The former Congresswoman says she will not return in 2026 but has an unnamed candidate that she wants to support. Northampton County Executive Lamon McClure (D) is an announced candidate but raised only $140,000 in the first quarter. Therefore, McClure is not likely Wild’s mystery candidate.

Regardless of who the Democrats ultimately nominate, this will be a hotly contested race that will go a long way toward determining the next House majority.

PA-8 — Freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) unseated six-term Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in November with a 51-49 percent vote margin. Cartwright confirms he is considering returning for a re-match. Until he makes a decision, the rest of a potential Democratic candidate field is figuratively frozen. This district will again host a tight contest, so expect a major campaign to again unfold in this Scranton-anchored CD irrespective of whom the Democrats nominate to challenge Rep. Bresnahan.

South Carolina

SC-1 — Three-term Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) is seriously considering a run for Governor, meaning the coastal 1st Congressional District could be open in 2026. Should Rep. Mace run for re-election instead of statewide, she will be safe in a general election battle. With the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculating a 55.6R – 42.3D partisan lean, the GOP will be in strong position to hold the seat with another candidate. Likely the area politics will be in a state of suspension until Rep. Mace makes a final decision about running for Governor.

SC-5 — As with Rep. Mace in South Carolina’s 1st CD, five-term 5th District Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also considering entering the state’s open Governor’s race. In a recent quote, Norman indicated he is “about 65 percent sure” that he will run statewide.

The 5th CD is also solidly Republican (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 58.4R – 39.8D), so winning the GOP primary is tantamount to election. Here, too, a presumed congressional candidate field is frozen until Rep. Norman makes a final decision about his potential statewide bid. If both the 1st and 5th Districts are open, we can expect crowded and highly competitive Republican primaries in each location.

South Dakota

SD-AL — The South Dakota congressional situation is another where a Governor’s race is playing a major role as to the outcome of an eventual campaign for the US House. Four-term at-large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) is contemplating a run for Governor, but the new incumbent, Larry Rhoden who ascended to the state’s top job when then-Gov. Kristi Noem (R) was appointed Homeland Security Secretary, has not yet indicated whether he will run for a full term.

Most politicos, however, believe Rep. Johnson will jump into the Governor’s race irrespective of Gov. Rhoden’s plans. His 1st Quarter fundraising certainly suggests such. Johnson raised just under $800,000 for the three-month period but maintains almost $6 million in his campaign account. Therefore, Rep. Johnson already has the necessary resources to fully compete in a statewide race.

Should the Congressman run for Governor, as in several other states, we will see a crowded open-seat Republican primary form with the eventual winner punching his ticket to Washington, DC.

Tennessee

TN-6 — The middle Tennessee 6th Congressional District situation is similar to those described in South Carolina and South Dakota. Here, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) has already announced his candidacy in the open Governor’s race, a move that many believe will be a political suicide run against Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), who appears set on running to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Bill Lee.

With Rep. Rose in the Governor’s race, we see talk about others running for Congress but, so far, no real action. A crowded Republican primary is expected, which may feature former Congressman Van Hilleary, who has been serving as Rep. Rose’s chief of staff, state House Speaker Cameron Sexton (R-Crossville), and as many as two state Senators and two other state Representatives. A crowded field will form and the eventual Republican nominee will succeed Rose as the new member.

Texas

TX-18 — The death of freshman Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has led to a special election being called concurrently with the state’s municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 3. If no candidate receives majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) then will schedule a secondary election for the top two finishers. Such a runoff, which is likely and could well feature two Democrats, would probably be scheduled for Dec. 16.

Fifteen Democrats, three Republicans, and four Independents have already announced their candidacies. At this point, the top two candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D). With a partisan lean rating of 73.6D – 24.4R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the Democrats are a lock to keep this seat.

TX-28 — Twenty-year incumbent Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) has won his past two elections from this South Texas congressional district with a federal bribery indictment hanging over his head. In November, he defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R), who moved to the state just to challenge Cuellar.

It is likely the Congressman will face stiffer competition in 2026. Former 34th District Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R) has announced her candidacy. Before that, Republican leaders were looking to recruit Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. It remains to be seen just who Rep. Cuellar will face, but we can expect a highly competitive 2026 contest in this heavily Hispanic (72.9 percent of the CD Voting Age Population) Texas district.

TX-38 — Two-term Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) holds a safe Republican seat wholly within Harris County, but he may be moving into a statewide race. There is no question Rep. Hunt is testing the political waters for a Republican primary challenge to Sen. John Cornyn (R) and should he enter the race that also includes Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), we can expect a very crowded Republican primary field vying to replace the Congressman.

Hunt has averaged 63 percent of the vote in his two 38th District elections. President Donald Trump carried the seat by 21 percentage points. Therefore, if Rep. Hunt runs for the Senate, the open 38th would then again be decided in the Republican primary.

Wisconsin

WI-1 & 3 — The major question that must be answered before beginning to analyze the Wisconsin congressional races is will there be a mid-decade congressional redistricting? If the state Supreme Court decides to redraw the boundaries in response to a lawsuit, then 1st District Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and fellow 3rd District Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) will be in serious political trouble. If the map remains constant, then Rep. Steil would be a clear favorite for re-election, while Rep. Van Orden would again face a competitive opponent.

In November, Steil, running for his fourth term, defeated Democratic former Congressman Peter Barca by 10 percentage points, 54-44 percent in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians project a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. President Trump carried the seat 51.5 – 47.0 percent.

Rep. Van Orden’s 3rd District lies in Wisconsin’s western sector anchored in the city of La Crosse. The Congressman won a second term with a 51-49 percent margin over businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Though Cooke is returning for a re-match, she faces significant Democratic primary competition in the persons of Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge (D), and former Eau Claire City Councilmember Laura Benjamin (D). Even in the present district configuration, Rep. Van Orden can count on again being forced to wage a major re-election campaign.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court forced a redraw of the state Assembly and Senate districts in 2023 on partisan gerrymandering grounds but left the congressional map intact. It remains to be seen what decision the new state Supreme Court will soon render for the 2024 elections.

Potential Wisconsin Redistricting

Click map above to see full size.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 3, 2025

Redistricting

If Wisconsin congressional redistricting occurs later this year as a result of Tuesday’s state Supreme Court election, which current House members will be most affected?

Now that Democrats have won the high court election in the person of Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D), expect the new panel members to eventually position themselves to redraw the state’s congressional districts.

Though redistricting is supposed to be completed just once a decade after a decennial census, we have seen many court decisions forcing mid-decade redraws of congressional or state legislative district boundaries. It has now gotten to the point, as it did in the last two Wisconsin state Supreme Court election battles, that some judicial candidates even add the redistricting issue to their campaign agenda.

In the Wisconsin instance, the court will likely rule that the state’s 6R-2D congressional map is a partisan gerrymander. Judge Crawford stated during the campaign that she believes the districts should be redrawn, thus creating two more Democratic seats. Proponents of this line of reasoning suggest that because the statewide vote count is routinely a toss-up in the state, the congressional map should be a reflection of the typical statewide voting trend.

Before the 2024 election, the Wisconsin court, again with a 4-3 Democratic majority, redrew the boundaries of both the state Assembly and Senate using a similar partisan gerrymandering argument. The change resulted in Democrats gaining a net 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate. Though the new map severely altered the partisan complexion, Republicans still maintained their majorities in both houses.

Curiously, the court did not simultaneously change the congressional map as many believed they would. Some analysts surmised that the underlying reason for not redrawing the federal plan was the US Senate race.

At the time of the legislative redraws, it appeared Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin would draw an easy opponent and secure a third term. Yet, if the congressional lines were redrawn, it would have been probable that Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), who already had well over $3 million in his federal campaign account at the time, would jump into the Senate race if his 1st Congressional District was drawn to elect a Democrat.

If this was the surprising reason for leaving the congressional map untouched, it was likely a prudent partisan move. Ultimately, what appeared at the outset to be a strong run for Baldwin turned into a very tight battle as underestimated candidate Eric Hovde (R) managed to run a viable campaign and came within nine-tenths of one percentage point of unseating the Senator. It is reasonable to believe that an opponent such as Rep. Steil, who would have been taken seriously from the beginning, might have attracted more support than Hovde and won the seat.

With no 2026 Wisconsin Senate race, a federal statewide campaign will not be a factor. The Governor’s office, on the other hand, is on the ballot. Gov. Tony Evers (D) has won two close gubernatorial campaigns and looks to be preparing to run for a third time. Changing the congressional map could force a displaced Congressman to move into the Governor’s race, thus making the incumbent’s re-election path more difficult.

Assuming the court moves forward with a redraw, who will be the likely targets? The answer lies in the southern and western parts of the state where Reps. Steil and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) already hold competitive political districts.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, Rep. Steil’s 1st District has a partisan lean of 49.4R – 48.3D. Rep. Van Orden’s district is similarly tight, though Democrats already have a slight edge on the same partisan lean scale, 48.9D – 48.5R. Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D), who held Rep. Van Orden to a 51-49 percent victory margin last November has already said that she will return for a 2026 re-match.

To the west of Rep. Steil’s southern 1st District and to the east of Rep. Van Orden’s CD-3, lies the Madison anchored 2nd District of Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Town of Vermont). WI-2’s partisan lean is 69.7D – 28.2R, which means this district could easily shed Democrats to District 3 without endangering Rep. Pocan’s future re-elections.

A similar situation exists in Rep. Steil’s situation. To the north of his district is Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-Milwaukee) 4th CD. The partisan lean here is 73.6D – 24.2R. This is the state’s coalition minority seat. A combined total of all minorities pushes their Voting Age Population number to 52.9 percent, so there are plenty of Democratic votes that could be transferred to the 1st.

Obviously, more Republican voters from the 1st would be shifted to the 4th, and the same from the 3rd to the 2nd. The map would be more competitive for both Reps. Pocan and Moore, but their districts won’t be changed to the point of making either vulnerable to the point of losing.

The remaining five seats are all heavily Republican, and while Rep. Scott Fitzgerald’s (R-Clyman) 5th CD could be changed as part of the partisan swap among the aforementioned, it probably will continue to remain as a safely Republican seat. It is probable that the state’s northern districts, 6, 7, and 8, those of Reps. Glenn Grothman (R-Glenbeulah), Tom Tiffany (R-Minocqua), and Tony Wied (R-De Pere/Green Bay), won’t fundamentally change.

This is only one possible scenario of a redistricting order that could take many forms. Expect Republicans to put up a major fight, and they will have some potential maneuvers in their legal quivers, but the partisan nature of this particular court suggests a new congressional redistricting plan is on the Wisconsin political horizon.

Democrats Win in Wisconsin;
Republicans Take Florida

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Elections

Wisconsin circuit judge Susan Crawford

Wisconsin — In the state Supreme Court regular election in Wisconsin, though nonpartisan on the ballot, Democrat circuit judge Susan Crawford easily defeated Republican former Attorney General Brad Schimel by a 55-45 percent margin to maintain the party’s 4-3 majority on the court. The ramifications of this victory could mean the new court will redraw the state’s congressional map, which would likely lead to a net loss of Republican seats.

The outcome in Wisconsin may be the most significant of all of last night’s election results. The Badger State supported President Donald Trump in the recent 2024 election, but it was the closest of all the swing states, yielding a victory margin of less than one percentage point in the 2024 election. On the other hand, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected on that same night by a similarly slim vote spread.

The margin in the state Supreme Court race exceeded the published polls and was greater than expected. Having a clear majority in this hotly contested and expensive campaign will likely embolden the court to venture down a more partisan political path.

Should the Wisconsin high court judges decide to redraw the congressional districts under the partisan gerrymandering argument — before the 2024 election the court redistricted the state Assembly and Senate districts but not the congressional boundaries — the Republicans who would be most endangered appear to be Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Considering the results, it is probable that the Democratic base was more energized than the Republican, and Independents broke toward the Democrats, and significantly so in the Wisconsin situation. We also see further evidence that many Trump voters are only that and cannot necessarily be counted upon to turnout for Republican candidates without the President himself being on the ballot.

Turnout in all of the races last night was high. The Wisconsin turnout, of more than 2.3 million, or two-thirds of the number who voted in the 2024 presidential election, is high. In both of Florida’s congressional races, turnout exceeded 150,000 voters, and almost reached 200,000 in Florida’s 6th District, which is extremely high for special elections.

Florida — Despite what appeared to be the potential of a Democratic upset in Florida’s 6th Congressional District special election, resigned Republican state Sen. Randy Fine last night secured the congressional seat that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R) vacated to accept his Trump Administration position.

In the other Florida election, as expected, state CFO Jimmy Patronis held the seat from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned. Since the far western Panhandle 1st Congressional District is the safest Republican seat in Florida, it was little surprise that Patronis won. As in FL-6, however, the Democratic nominee, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, outspent the winner. The victory percentages, both in the 57 percent range, were well under President Trump’s performance in both districts.

In the FL-6 seat, while Sen. Fine was being out-raised early by a 10:1 margin, the Republican apparatus expended major resources and increased the early vote operation. The GOP advantage was approximately 10,000 votes when combining the mail and in-person early votes. This gave Fine the cushion he needed to secure the election with voters who cast their ballot at the polls. In the end, Fine would win with a margin of more than 27,000 votes.

While the analysis will claim this is a Republican under-performance victory, it is important to remember that Fine represented — before his resignation under Florida’s resign to run law — a state Senate seat more than 100 miles from the heart of CD-6, with no common constituents between the two districts. Therefore, he began the election with no previously established base.

This, plus having to overcome $10 million-plus in expenditures potentially accounts for a somewhat diminished margin as opposed to voters expressing dissatisfaction with the Trump Administration.

The 1st District is significantly more Republican than the 6th, so in reality the Patronis 57 percent victory is actually a greater underperformance than that of Fine. Here too, however, we see a Republican who does not live in the district being outspent and in this case the Democratic message appears stronger. Valimont was concentrating on services that should be brought to the district, such as a VA hospital, as opposed to Fine’s opponent, educator Josh Weil, who campaigned as an admitted socialist and referred to himself as “a bad-ass teacher.”

Tomorrow’s Elections

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 31, 2025

Elections

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

Important special elections will be held in Florida and Wisconsin tomorrow, and voting in Louisiana on four constitutional amendments this past Saturday did not go the Republican Governor’s way.

At stake tomorrow are two key Sunshine State Republican congressional seats and a crucial state Supreme Court race that will decide the Wisconsin high court majority. The latter election could lead to significant redistricting ramifications for the 2026 campaign cycle.

Florida — In Florida, Republican Jimmy Patronis, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, appears poised to hold the 1st District for the GOP despite being outspent by his Democratic opponent, athletic trainer Gay Valimont.

Patronis does not live in the 1st District for which he is campaigning. This is the CD that former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned at the beginning of the Congress, thus forcing the special election. The Patronis family, however, owns a major restaurant in the Florida Panhandle which increases Jimmy Patronis’ familiarity throughout the region.

Additionally, he has twice been on the ballot in his statewide runs for CFO, carrying the 1st District both times. Furthermore, at R+38 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization and FL-1 ranking as the 39th-safest seat in the Republican Conference according to the Down Ballot statistical blog makes a Democratic upset here extremely unlikely.

Democrats have greater optimism about the 6th District even though 538 rates this seat as R+28 and Down Ballot forecasts it as the 105th-safest GOP district.

The candidate campaign spending imbalance favors the Democratic nominee, educator Josh Weil, by almost a 10:1 ratio, which has put the seat in play. Two polls were conducted at the end of last week, and both show a small spread between the two candidates, with Weil and Republican nominee Randy Fine, a state Senator, each leading in one.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm tested the race but did not publicly release the data. Yet, it is being reported that this survey found Fine trailing Weil by three percentage points. The only fully released survey, from St. Pete Polls (March 22-25; 403 likely FL-6 special election voters; interactive voice response system & text; 38 percent of whom stated they had already voted), projects Fine leading 48-44 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Fine’s district is more than 100 miles from the heart of Congressional District 6, and he represents no carryover constituents in the CD. Republican leaders have been complaining that Fine is a poor fundraiser but moving him into a district where the average Republican voter has never heard of him makes his task all the more difficult.

A Republican loss here would bring potentially disastrous ramifications to the Trump legislative agenda and at least for the short term reverse the GOP’s positive momentum.

Wisconsin — The stakes are also high in Wisconsin where a Supreme Court race could lead to an early redraw of the current congressional district map. Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford (D) and former state Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are the candidates but will appear on the ballot with no party label.

Spending on both sides has been heavy. Should Crawford win, it is quite possible the court will then order the congressional map redrawn, which could mean the loss of two Republican seats. This would be especially dangerous for the GOP if the court orders special elections to be held after a redraw is complete.

A superintendent of public instruction election is also being conducted. Both candidates are Democrats, but the more conservative of the two has a fundraising advantage and a chance to defeat the incumbent. A ballot initiative to enshrine the state’s voter ID law in the state constitution is also before the electorate’s consideration.

Louisiana — In Louisiana, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) was advocating for four different constitutional amendments that pertained to several subjects including budget, taxes, spending caps, teacher bonuses, juvenile justice, and special elections.

Liberal organizations, largely intent on defeating the amendment that would have increased penalties for juvenile crime, created a “No on All” campaign to sink all four amendment proposals. Some conservative organizations also opposed several of the ballot propositions for other reasons. A major reason for the landslide defeat of all the measures was their complexity. Some analysts believed the lengthy intricacies of the four amendments made them difficult to fully understand, so the safer move was voting “no on all.”

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.