Tag Archives: Massachusetts

Premature Polling Results

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 3, 2025

Polling

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There are a number of current political studies surfacing that provide conflicting data or test political campaigns that clearly won’t happen. Yet, they still produce some marginally useful information.

The first set of contradictory surveys pertains to recent job approval ratings for President Donald Trump. The two polls in question produced diametrically opposed results when asking the same question during the same time period.

The American Research Group tested the Trump favorability rating over the Feb. 17-20 period (1,004 registered US voters; live interview) and found the President with an upside-down ratio, 43:51 percent favorable to unfavorable, a negative spread of eight percentage points.

Within the same time frame, Harvard University (HarrisX/Harris Poll; Feb. 19-20; 2,443 registered US voters; online) also tested the American registered voter electorate but found a completely different favorability ratio. According to the Harvard data, Trump has a positive rating spread of nine percentage points, 52:43 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Therefore, the two professionally conducted surveys, executed within the same period (Feb. 17-20), and targeting a like audience (registered voters) for the same purpose (testing presidential job approval) arrive at completely different responses.

It is probable that the more positive Harvard poll is closer to the accuracy mark, as another surveyor, the Morning Consult data organization, conducted a national tracking poll within the same late February period. The MC study (Feb. 21-24; 2,225 registered US voters; online) projects Trump with a plus-3 favorable job approval ratio, 50:47 percent.

The large disparity found within these and other similar conducted surveys over the weeks since President Trump began his second term on Jan. 20, suggest certain polling flaws or that the public is displaying inconsistent hot and cold tendencies toward the former and current chief executive. Even the latter potential conclusion, however, is an improvement when compared to the President’s first term standing when his approval ratings were uniformly negative.

A newly released campaign poll should be ignored, but not because the data results are necessarily wrong. The reason is one of the tested principals has definitively stated he is not running for the Senate.

The campaign in question is the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race featuring incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D), who has been in Congress since 1976 counting his long career in the House, and former two-term Gov. Charlie Baker (R). Baker, now president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), has repeatedly said that he will not run for the Senate.

The survey, from the University of Massachusetts (YouGov; Feb. 14-20; 700 Massachusetts adults; online), posts Sen. Markey to only a two-point edge over ex-Gov. Baker, 35-33 percent. Aside from testing a candidate who is not running, the sampling universe consists of adults and not likely or even registered voters. Therefore, the poll results, which also appear to under-count each man’s support, are not useful.

Another questionable statewide survey, but one that does monitor candidates who are running, tests the Virginia electorate regarding their open 2025 Governor’s campaign.

The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which has been known in the past for releasing certain unusual survey results that were later proven as anomalies, fielded their study of 690 likely Virginia general election voters over the Feb. 17-20 period. The Roanoke ballot test sees former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R) by a 39-24 percent spread, which appears to underestimate not only Sears’ support, but also Spanberger’s.

Furthermore, their ballot test results are inconsistent with the other five Virginia Governor polls conducted and publicized since the 2024 election. The latter surveys, from five different pollsters, cast Spanberger and Sears in a dead heat (co/efficient survey research firm), Spanberger plus-1 (Emerson College), plus-3 (Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy), plus-5 (Christopher Newport University), and Spanberger plus-10 (Virginia Commonwealth University).

While these polls still provide some useful information, those currently testing political campaigns produce results so early in the election cycle that typically fail to properly capture the studied candidates’ accurate standing in reference to a future final result. This is because polls can only test one point in time.

Therefore, once we see campaigns beginning to spend voter contact money to deliver their message and project a theme, the ballot test results can be more seriously considered and analyzed.

Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).

One More Race to Go; Miller-Meeks Clinches Victory; Rep. Seth Moulton Under Fire; Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Recount Ordered

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Adam Gray

CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes — The agonizingly slow vote counting process in northern California’s 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.

It is now likely, however, that Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow. If Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Trump Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.

IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory — The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6: Rep. Moulton’s (D) Potential Primary — Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town supervisors race in the Andover locality. Koh was quoted saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The congressman will be favored in the next election regardless of who opposes him.

States

Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative. By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.

A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1 percent while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9 percent. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.

Presidential Primary Plans in Flux; NV-1 2022 Candidate Files Again;
VA-4 Special Updates;
Gov. Baker Goes to NCAA

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 19, 2022

President

Primary Schedule: Push-Back Could Change Announced Plan — Apparently, the Democrats haven’t quite settled on the 2024 primary schedule due to objections from certain party leaders about South Carolina being moved to the number one position. Last week, President Biden made a specific schedule change suggestion involving several states that the initial Democratic National Committee policy panel approved. The plan called for South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan, in that order, being allowed to host primary elections prior to a larger number of states voting on Super Tuesday in early March.

Now, it appears that a move potentially involving Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina ultimately becoming the first state on the Democratic calendar could potentially alter the not-yet-adopted presidential primary voting schedule. Therefore, while it looked as if the Biden suggestions were headed for full DNC adoption, that might not prove to be the final decision. Stay tuned.

House

NV-1: Challenger Files 2024 Committee — Businessman Mark Robertson (R), who lost to Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) by a 52-46 percent count in November, has filed a new congressional committee for 2024. Robertson’s action does not mean he is committed to running again, but certainly leaves the door open for a seamless transition into another campaign. Short-term, it provides a legal fundraising vehicle.

Redistricting changed the 1st District from a D+22 seat, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, to its current D+4, thus making it a competitive CD for the next several elections. Whether Robertson again becomes an official candidate or not, Rep. Titus can expect another competitive challenge coming her way in 2024.

VA-4: Democrat Drops Out — Approaching the quickly called Dec. 20 firehouse special election primary, where only five polling stations are open throughout the sprawling district that stretches from Richmond to the North Carolina border, state Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), one of the leading candidates, withdrew from the race and endorsed state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond). She now appears as the party leaders’ selected choice.

Republicans voted in their firehouse primary Saturday. The scheduled Feb. 21 special congressional election is on the ballot to replace the late Congressman Donald McEachin (D-Richmond).

States

Massachusetts: Gov. Baker in Line for New Position — Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) has accepted a new position that takes him both out of politics and the private business sector. Beginning in March, he will become the new President of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA).

Now that football is administered through the College Football Association, the NCAA has much less influence over the domain of college athletics. His biggest challenge in this new position is making sure the organization does not lose control over the annual national college basketball tournament, which is currently the NCAA’s largest event.

Senate Majority Now Decided;
House Majority Continues
To Remain in Limbo

Click on map or here to see CNN’s interactive 2022 elections results House map: CNN

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 14, 2022

Now, just about a week beyond the 2022 election, each major party still has a chance of controlling the US House, while the Democrats, with late victories in Arizona and Nevada, have secured at least a 50-50 ostensible Senate majority when counting the vice president’s tie-breaking vote.

Senate

Senate: Majority Decided — Just one of the 35 Senate elections still remains undecided: the Georgia race that will head to a post-election runoff on Dec.6. Once the tight Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin races were called for incumbents Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), and Ron Johnson (R-WI) the majority was decided in favor of the Democrats.

The Georgia race unofficially finds incumbent Raphael Warnock (D) holding 49.4 percent of the vote versus Republican Herschel Walker’s 48.5 percent. Libertarian Chris Victor taking 2.1 percent, or just over 48,000 votes, denied both major party candidates the opportunity of reaching the 50 percent plateau. Therefore, the two finalists advance to a new election.

A Warnock win would put the Senate balance of power at 51-49 with the Democrats in control and not needing the vice president to make a tie-breaking vote. A Walker win would leave the Senate without a true majority at 50-50, thus requiring Vice President Kamala Harris’ deciding call on straight party line votes.

The Alaska Senate race is also undecided, but the state’s new electoral system that sends four candidates to the general election won’t be final for another two weeks.

It is obvious that contest will winnow down to a battle between two Republicans, Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Alaska Director of Administration Kelly Tshibaka. While Tshibaka leads the aggregate vote count, it has become clear that she and Sen. Murkowski will eventually advance into the Ranked Choice runoff.

Though Tshibaka is, and may remain, the vote leader, the RCV runoff system looks to favor Sen. Murkowski. Regardless of which woman is declared the victor when the lengthy process ends, the GOP will retain the Alaska Senate seat.

House

House: Majority Count Remains in Limbo — The House races are still very much undecided with 19 races uncalled. Considering that 10 of those races are in California and one in New York where it will likely take weeks to arrive at final totals, it could be quite some time until we know the ultimate outcome.

According to the CNN election site count, of the 19 uncalled races the Democrats lead in nine, Republicans eight, and two are pure toss-ups, both of which the GOP candidate has a slight count edge. Republicans, however, sitting at 212 called races in their favor versus 204 for the Democrats, need only six of the 19 to fall their way, while Democrats require 14 to claim a bare majority.

It appears the final margin may come down to just one or two seats. The GOP lead seems relatively secure in five of their eight advantage seats, which would give them 217, while the Democrats appear to have solid advantages in another seven of their nine, which puts them at 211.

Therefore, the Republican projection appears to lie in the 217-221 range, while the Democrats’ best-case scenario looks to be scoring a 218-217 slight majority. These predictions, however, are based upon rudimentary projections that could easily change once the actual votes are finally tabulated in all 19 outstanding campaigns.

Governor

Aggregate Governor: Incumbents Dominate — Surprisingly little change occurred in the 36 governors’ races in terms of party change. Democrats, as predicted, easily converted the Maryland and Massachusetts open seats.

The 36 governors’ races are also almost complete, with only Alaska and Arizona uncalled.

In returns that defied polling and thus favor the Democrats, Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) leads former news anchorwoman Kari Lake (R) in the governor’s race, and her advantage may be enough to clinch the office once the state works through its counting delays.

At this point, Hobbs holds a 50.5 – 49.5 percent lead with an estimated 93 percent of the vote counted. This translates into approximately 180,000 votes remaining to be tallied. To win, Lake would have to receive more than 56 percent of the outstanding vote to make up her 26,000-plus vote deficit, which is difficult.

In the only competitive election resulting in a partisan conversion, Republican Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo (R) unseated Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D). In races that were largely decided in the states’ respective Democratic primaries, Wes Moore and Maura Healey successfully converted Republican governorships in Maryland and Massachusetts, respectively.

Oregon, the site of perhaps the most interesting governor’s race because it featured a three-way battle, saw former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D) prevail over ex-House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson (I). Polling correctly suggested that Johnson had dropped well off the pace but also largely projected incorrectly that Drazan was positioned for a close upset win. In the end, the election broke 47-44-9 percent in Kotek’s favor with an estimated 93 percent of the all-mail vote counted.

Alaska Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy looks to be in position to potentially clinch re-election outright, thus exceeding the 50 percent mark within the aggregate vote and avoiding a Ranked Choice Voting instant runoff. With ballots being allowed two weeks to report from the wilderness, it will be just before Thanksgiving when all of the Last Frontier races finally conclude.

Conflicting Polls in NC;
Fetterman Up in PA; Gubernatorial Challenger Drops Out in MA

By Jim Ellis — June 27, 2022

Senate

Cheri Beasley (left) holds a 44-40 percent edge over Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in a recent poll in the open North Carolina Senate campaign.

North Carolina: Countering Poll — Last week, we reported on a Survey USA poll (June 8-12; 650 likely North Carolina voters; online) that gave Democratic former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley a 44-40 percent edge over US Rep. Ted Budd (R-Advance) in the open North Carolina Senate campaign. This week, the Cygnal polling firm released its latest data (June 17-19; 600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) that projects a different conclusion. These results show Rep. Budd holding a virtual mirror image 45-40 percent lead. Of those definitely voting for one candidate or the other, Rep. Budd leads that response, 38-31 percent.

Pennsylvania: Fetterman Up in Two New Polls — Two surveys, a combined poll from Republican firm Fabrizio Ward & Associates and the Democratic Impact Research entity (June 12-19; 1,382 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text), and Suffolk University (June 10-13; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview), both find Democrat John Fetterman leading Republican Mehmet Oz even though the Democratic fundamentals in terms of direction of the country, views on the economy, and wanting their vote to be a message to Washington, are inconsistent with the support level for the party’s nominee. Fabrizio/Impact finds Fetterman’s advantage at 50-44 percent. Suffolk reveals a similar 46-37 percent split in Fetterman’s favor.

Wisconsin: Typical Close Polling — Pollsters haven’t fared too well in Wisconsin in recent election years. The last time Sen. Ron Johnson (R) was on the ballot in 2016, he led in just one of 30 public polls that were conducted that year. Now, we see Marquette Law School releasing new data projecting another close contest. According to their survey (June 14-20; 803 registered Wisconsin voters), Sen. Johnson would trail a pair of Democrats, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D) and state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, by two percentage points apiece, 44-46 percent and 43-45 percent, but lead Milwaukee Bucks basketball club executive Alex Lasry, 45-42 percent.

Within this same time frame during the 2016 election cycle, Marquette found former Sen. Russ Feingold (D) leading Sen. Johnson, 51-42 percent. Johnson won the 2016 election, 50-47 percent.

Governor

Massachusetts: Challenger Drops Out — State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz (D-Boston) announced last week that she is ending her gubernatorial bid, saying that she has no “path to victory.” This leaves Attorney General Maura Healey unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Considering a weak Republican field, it appears that AG Healey is now the prohibitive favorite to convert the Massachusetts governor’s office away from the Republicans. Incumbent Gov. Charlie Baker (R) chose not to seek a third term.

New York: Hochul Up Big; GOP Tight — Survey USA went into the field in New York to test both major party primaries in anticipation of the June 28 vote for the statewide candidates. The candidates running for state legislature and US House will have their primary on Aug. 23.

According to S-USA (June 15-20; 2,987 registered New York voters; 1,002 likely Democratic primary voters; 538 likely Republican primary voters; online), Gov. Kathy Hochul has a big lead in the Dem primary, 54-18-11 percent over Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) and NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams. For the Republicans, US Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley; East Long Island) holds only a 25-23 percent edge over Andrew Giuliani, son of former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, while businessman Henry Wilson commands 13 percent support.

Pennsylvania: Mastriano Close — While the aforementioned two Pennsylvania surveys, (see Pennsylvania in Senate section above; a combined poll from Republican firm Fabrizio Ward & Associates and the Democratic Impact Research entity and Suffolk University), find Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) topping Republican Mehmet Oz slightly beyond the polling margin of error, the governor’s contest is tighter. These same polls project Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D) holding a bare 49-46 percent edge in the Fabrizio/Impact poll over state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R-Fayetteville), and a similarly tight 44-40 percent lead in the Suffolk poll.

Democrats Back Independent in Utah; House Race News; Kansas Redistricting Map Rejected

By Jim Ellis

April 28, 2022:

Senate

Utah Independent Senate candidate Evan McMullin

Utah: Democrats Back Independent — The Utah Democratic nominating convention over last weekend voted with a 57 percent majority not to field a party candidate against Sen. Mike Lee (R), but instead form a coalition to back Independent candidate Evan McMullin.

The move was the first of its kind in Utah political history. The delegates clearly agreed with the argument that the party was better coalescing behind McMullin, a 2016 Independent presidential candidate and former Republican who placed a strong third in the state (21.5 percent) behind Republican Donald Trump (45.5 percent) and Democrat Hillary Clinton (27.5 percent than nominating their own Democratic contender. They understood that supporting Democrat Kael Watson and producing a three-way campaign meant a sure victory for Sen. Lee.

House

FL-5: US Rep. Al Lawson May Challenge Fellow Incumbent — Florida US Rep. Al Lawson (D-Tallahassee) has difficult choices ahead of him in determining where to seek re-election in the north Florida region. The new Florida congressional map collapses his current district. The Politico publication reports that Lawson is leaning toward challenging Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City) in the new 2nd District, an R+16 CD but one that includes Rep. Lawson’s home base of Tallahassee.

MA-4: No Re-Match — Former Brookline Selectwoman Jesse Mermell, who lost the 2020 Democratic primary to current US Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton) by just one percentage point, announced that she will not return for a re-match. Therefore, Rep. Auchincloss becomes a prohibitive favorite for re-nomination and re-election. The Massachusetts primary is not until Sept. 6, and the candidate filing deadline is May 31.

MN-1: No Official GOP Endorsement — First Congressional District Republicans convened over the weekend to potentially endorse a candidate in the special election to replace the late Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R-Blue Earth/Rochester). Though state Rep. Jeremy Munson (R-Lake Crystal) attracted 55 percent of the delegate vote, it was not enough to secure the official endorsement. Doing so requires 60 percent. This means we will see an open special election primary on May 24 with no officially endorsed candidate, though Rep. Munson appears to be a clear front runner.

Utah: Two Reps Under-Perform at Convention — US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), posted only 41 percent of the convention vote on the first ballot, which was just enough to avoid an embarrassing defeat, since he did not also opt to obtain petition signatures. The later rounds pushed him to 45 percent, but the congressman still must win a Republican primary against the man whom he defeated in a 2017 special election and the 2018 GOP primary, — former state Rep. Chris Herrod. Despite Rep. Curtis’ poor showing at the party convention, he is still expected to win the primary and general elections.

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