Tag Archives: Montana

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Senate Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024

Senate

Montana GOP senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy

With early voting churning forward and the election a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority.

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (Oct. 23-25; 1,000 likely Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39 percent, the Senate race, at 50-46 percent and 51-48 percent when “leaners” to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47 percent. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43 percent of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count.

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are one-and-a-half points stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, 10 polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers.

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous 10 October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down — 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46 percent suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points.

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace here of four years ago.

As you can see, many more Senate races are becoming interesting.

The Ups & Downs of Early Voting; New Alabama CD Normalizing; A One-Point Race in Montana; Long Island GOP Candidates Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 25, 2024

Early Voting

National Vote: Some 25 Million Early Votes — Almost 25 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we see big increases in the rural vote, while the most consistent voters dominate the early ballot casts.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight points over their 2020 performance and almost four percentage points over the 2022 turnout statistics. Conversely, urban voters are down 10 points from 2020 and six from the 2022 benchmark. Those listed as frequent and “super voters,” the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election, dominate the 2024 early voting statistics.

The first-time voter category is down about nine percentage points as compared to 2020, while the infrequent voter is down five points. Those categorized as “frequent voters” are down three points from 2020 and five points when compared with the 2022 statistics. The “super voter” category dominates early voting. This group is up 17 points over the 2020 performance and five in comparison to 2022.

House

AL-2: Figures Expands Lead — The newly created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as drawn. The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African American representative and after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.

A Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC (Oct. 14-17; 400 likely AL-2 voters) finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figurers (D) leading Dobson by a 49-38 percent count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.

MT-1: New Poll Shows One Point Race — While several polls since mid-September have shown Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) pulling away from Democrat Monica Tranel, a new Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign (Oct. 14-17; 500 likely MT-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the race coming back into the one point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.

While Rep. Zinke still must be considered the favorite to win at least a close victory, this contest is again closer than it should be in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10, and where former President Donald Trump recorded a 52-45 percent showing in 2020.

New York: Polls Find Dems Running Well Against GOP Incumbents — Two of three recently released surveys suggest incumbent Empire State Republicans are struggling to stay in office, and the third is down significantly; Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal-tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region’s 4th Congressional District. According to the Siena survey (for Newsday; Oct. 13-17; 532 likely NY-4 voters), the congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41 percent deficit figure.

In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) has only a three-point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll, also conducted for Newsday (Oct. 13-17; 526 likely NY-1 voters), posts the congressman to a 47-44 percent edge.

Survey USA went into the field in the Upstate 19th Congressional District where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) also trails his Democratic opponent. The S-USA poll (conducted for WNYT media in Albany; Oct. 11-16; 561 NY-19 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives 2022 congressional nominee and attorney Josh Riley (D) a 46-42 percent edge over Congressman Molinaro.

Should the two GOP incumbents lose the election two weeks from now, it will be a major blow toward Republican prospects of sustaining their small US House majority.

Casey Changing Tune in PA; Rogers Up in New Michigan Poll; Zinke Way Up in Montana; Molinaro Trails in NY-19

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) ad

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Changing Tune — For the first time, a new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), which may explain why he is citing agreement with the Trump trade policies in a new ad and drawing a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration’s fracking policy. The AtlasIntel survey (Oct. 12-17; 2,048 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) projects McCormick to hold a 48-47 percent edge over Sen. Casey.

Simultaneously, however, the Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) shows the senator leading their ballot test by seven percentage points, 50-43 percent. Sen. Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden message change to at least partially align himself with former President Donald Trump is eyebrow raising and suggests that the campaign’s internal data might be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.

Obviously, these two pollsters have different methodologies in conducting their surveys. Which is the more accurate is difficult to tell at this point. Therefore, we will likely have to wait until Election Day to determine which of the two research entities has the better sampling practice.

Michigan: Rogers Up in New Poll — Similar to what we see in the Pennsylvania race as described below, a new AtlasIntel poll shows Republican former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers taking a small one-point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine-point lead.

AtlasIntel (Oct. 12-17; 1,529 likely Michigan voters; online) projects Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48 percent advantage. The Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Michigan voters) finds a Slotkin margin of 51-42 percent.

House

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Up Substantially — Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state’s at-large House seat in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly, after the election, then-President-Elect Trump nominated Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years. When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State’s new western 1st District, but with an under-performing margin of 50-46 percent in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.

With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the ’24 race could again be close. A new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey, however, suggests Rep. Zinke is in position to improve upon his previous performance. The poll (conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund; Oct. 13-16; 400 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) projects the congressman to hold a 52-44 percent advantage.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro (R) Trails in Dem Internal — A Global Strategy Group large sample survey for the Josh Riley (D) campaign (Oct. 9-13; 801 likely NY-19 voters; live interview & text) gives the challenger a 48-45 percent lead in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican. In comparison to the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by only one point, meaning the incumbent Republican and former Dutchess County Executive is running behind his party’s presidential ticket.

New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority, and this is a district the Republicans need to keep in their column if they are to have a chance of retaining their small majority.
Expect right-of-center outside groups to increase spending in this district. Riley is outspending the incumbent by almost a 2:1 ratio, while outside groups are helping him in a 3:1 count from combined external spending of over $8 million.

Senate Money

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024

Senate

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana, has raised $31.7 million in just the past three months. / Photo by Jared King, Navajo Nation Washington Office

According to The Down Ballot political blog, the Democratic Senate candidates extended their already impressive 2024 cycle fundraising advantage over Republicans as reported in the just released third quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports.

The Down Ballot calculations indicate that “Democratic candidates collectively raised $452 million dollars, almost twice as much as the $235 million brought in by their GOP rivals.” The gap might be the largest in the Senate races as compared to the Presidential and House campaigns, but just how much will the money advantage mean in terms of winning and losing?

The three biggest fundraisers for the third quarter with incredible totals begin with Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) $31.7 million raised in just the past three months. Closely following are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with $29.8 million raised, and Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) securing $29.7 million.

Despite the huge fundraising and spending advantage, however, the latest polling shows all three of these candidates trailing their Republican opponents. In the Montana race, the New York Times/Siena College survey (Oct. 5-8; 656 likely Montana voters; live interview) sees Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Tester, 52-44 percent, despite his overall better than 3:1 fundraising edge.

In Ohio, Sen. Brown posts a cycle-to-date dominance of more than 4:1 in campaign spending, but the latest survey from the Morning Consult track (Oct. 6-15; 1,243 likely Ohio voters; online) gives Republican businessman Bernie Moreno a one-point lead, 48-47 percent.

While Rep. Allred outraised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) $29.7 million to $17.1 million during the Q3 period, the two are at parity for cycle-to-date fundraising: $64.1 million for Allred; $63.7 million for Cruz. The latest YouGov poll for the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project (Oct. 2-10; 1,091 likely Texas voters; online), however, gives Sen. Cruz a 51-44 percent advantage.

What these fundraising and polling numbers show is that a larger advantage in campaign resources and spending does not necessarily guarantee majority support.

Overall, an aggregate $340-plus million was raised in the 3rd quarter from the 79 charted Senate candidates with an average of $4.3 million per contender in just the 13-plus week reporting period from July 1- Sept. 30. The median average, however, is $1.084 million, meaning an equal number of candidates have raised more and less than that number.

One of the more interesting late-breaking races is the Nebraska Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R). While not having a Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer faces Independent Dan Osborn, who is making her re-election battle much more difficult than anyone would have imagined at the beginning of the election cycle in what should be a safe Republican state. In the Q3, Osborn out-raised Sen. Fischer, $3.2 million to $915,000, but the incumbent still maintains the overall spending advantage, $7.1 million to $4.2 million.

The biggest Q3 gap in fundraising, as it has been throughout the election cycle, comes in the Michigan Senate race. For the 3rd quarter, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) raised $18 million versus former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) pulling in $4.4 million, which, incidentally, is his best fundraising quarter for the election cycle. In the cycle-to-date categories, Slotkin leads Rogers $40.3 million to $9.4 million in fundraising and $35.9 million to $6.6 million in spending.

While the polls have always favored Rep. Slotkin, her margin is not overly strong, an average of 4.3 points from 14 October polls. Slotkin’s largest lead is nine points (The Bullfinch Group; Oct. 11-17), collapsing as far as Rogers posting a one-point edge (AtlasIntel; Oct. 12-17).

While the Senate Democratic candidates enjoy a huge advantage in fundraising, the aggregate outside organization spending has brought the two parties closer to parity. Most of the independent expenditures favor the Republican side either in money for pro-Republican candidate ads and programs, or anti-Democratic ads and programs.

Including all levels of federal campaigning (President, Senate, and House), the conservative outside organizations have outspent the liberal organizations by a 2:1 margin, $1.3 billion to $566 million according to the Open Secrets data organization.

It is clear that both sides have more than enough financial resources with which to communicate their message to the American electorate. It is always better to have more money than less, but it is not always necessary to be the top spender in a race.

Senate Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

Senate

In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota — Though the Minnesota Senate race is not particularly competitive, recent polling has suggested that Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) re-election campaign is a bit closer than one would expect in a state that reliably supports its Democratic incumbents. Four polls of the Minnesota Senate contest were released in September, and Sen. Klobuchar’s average advantage is nine percentage points over former professional basketball player Royce White (R). The margin is moderately strong, but not where one would have expected a virtually uncontested senator in the most loyal Democratic state in presidential election years.

The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.

Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.

This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.

Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.

Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.

Continue reading →

VP Harris Holds Slight Edge in Nevada; Balance of Senate Tested; Senate Money in Maryland; Examining California’s Key Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 27, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Nevada: New Polling Data Tracking with 2020 Result — Noble Predictive Insights tested the Nevada electorate in reference to the presidential campaign and finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only a percentage point, 48-47 percent.

Looking at the geographic division in the Noble poll and comparing it to Gov. Joe Lombardo’s (R) victorious 2022 votes received from Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno), and the rural Nevada areas, the Trump figures are equivalent to Lombardo’s performance in Clark and Washoe. It is the rural areas where Trump will need to slightly improve if he is to carry the state.

While he will outpace Harris by better than 2:1 in this region, Trump’s 2020 performance in the rural areas was a point behind Lombardo’s 2022 total. Considering Trump lost to then candidate Joe Biden by 2.3 percentage points here in 2020, the former president will need to improve slightly upon Lombardo’s numbers in all regions, but especially in the rural areas, if he is to compensate for his previous deficit.

Senate

FiveThirtyEight: Releases New Senate Mean Average Data — The FiveThirtyEight data organization released new mean averages for all the competitive Senate races and, for the most part, the numbers are consistent with averages publicized on other platforms.

While Democrats have relatively small but consistent leads in most of the competitive states, the Republican average is stronger (+3) in Montana, where a Tim Sheehy (R) victory over Sen. Jon Tester (D) would likely clinch an outright GOP Senate majority. The race that appears to be getting closer is in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) average advantage has dropped to three percentage points. The candidate with the strongest average is Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) at +9.

Maryland: Big Media Buy for Hogan Allies — Reports from the Free State are indicating that the Maryland’s Future Super PAC organization, which supports former Gov. Larry Hogan (R), has been reserving $18.2 million of advertising time for between now and the election. This is twice the amount that Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks is spending. Expect to see a large amount of Super PAC money to come to Alsobrooks’ rescue. The Democratic leadership and her outside allies will ensure the spending gap is at least equalized.

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California: USC Releases Polls for Key Districts — The University of Southern California and the Center for Urban Politics and Policy at Cal State University Long Beach partnered to test eight California congressional districts. Two were Democrat vs. Democrat campaigns, and another found the sample size dropping significantly below an adequate level, so the numbers in CA-22 — Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. Rudy Salas (D) — should not be considered as viable. In the two Democratic seats, Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) board member Lateefah Simon leads in Rep. Barbara Lee’s (D-Oakland) open 12th District and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo posts a sizable advantage in Rep. Anna Eshoo’s (D-Atherton) open 16th CD.

Interestingly, in only one of two races where the Republican candidate held a lead, the USC poll features a GOP challenger. Former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) held a three-point lead over state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) in an open contest where the latter man’s most prevalent negative is his highly publicized drunk driving conviction. The other leader is Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) who posted only a one-point edge over former federal prosecutor and 2022 general election finalist Will Rollins (D).

The Democrats who were leading Republican incumbents were Adam Gray over Rep. John Duarte (one point difference), George Whitesides topping Rep. Mike Garcia (+2), and Derek Tran leading Rep. Michelle Steel (+2).
The pollsters interviewed 2,395 likely voters in the five congressional districts during the Sept. 14-21 period. Interestingly, the undecided voters, when pushed, leaned toward Reps. Duarte and Calvert, and for the Democratic candidate in the other three contests.

In terms of the presidential vote, Kamala Harris led in all tested districts against Donald Trump but ran an average of three percentage points behind Joe Biden’s 2020 tallies. All of these races are very much in play, and the turnout model will likely be the deciding factor.

Harris to Skip Traditional Event; Trump Declines Debate; Tracking Poll Trends; MT-1 Remains Close

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

VP Kamala Harris: Skipping Catholic Al Smith Event — The attacks on Vice President Kamala Harris failing to participate in public events or news conferences intensified over the past weekend when her campaign confirmed that she will not attend the annual Al Smith Catholic fundraising dinner in New York on Oct. 17.

It has become a tradition that the presidential candidates attend this function together, but the Harris campaign is deciding to buck a trend that has been in effect for 40 years. We can expect a Trump campaign attempt to use her decision to drive a wedge between Harris and Catholic voters.

Donald Trump: Rejects Oct. 23 Debate — It appears the first debate between Harris and former President Donald Trump will be the last. While Harris declined to participate in a Fox News debate that Trump accepted, now the Republican nominee has declined CNN’s invitation to debate Harris on Oct. 23. Trump says that date is too late for a forum since so many people will have already cast a ballot through early voting.

Senate

Tracking Polls: Ohio and Texas Flip Leaders — Tracking polls are conducted not so much to capture where a race stands, but rather to detect which candidate the race trend favors over a sustained period. Therefore, we see two major long term tracking polls suggesting that the underdog candidate in each important Senate contest is currently moving upward.

In Texas, the Morning Consult survey research firm is conducting a nationwide series of Senate and presidential race tracks in the key states. In Texas, the MC data (Sept. 9-18; 2,716 likely Texas voters; online) finds Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulling one point ahead of incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R), 45-44 percent. The Activote firm conducted a five-week track of the Ohio Senate race (Aug. 16-9/22; 400 likely Ohio voters) and sees GOP challenger Bernie Moreno moving ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) by two percentage points, 51-49 percent.

In neither case do these tracking results necessarily mean that the incumbent is now trailing, only that their opponents’ campaigns are on an upswing.

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MT-1: Remains Close — The western 1st Congressional District of Montana was newly created after the 2020 census due to population growth, and its first election delivered a closer than expected final tally. In that contest, then-former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congressman Ryan Zinke (R) under-performed with his 50-46 percent win over former US Olympian Monica Tranel (D). The latest 2024 poll again featuring the two contenders shows another similarly close result.

The Noble Predictive Insights survey (Sept. 11-14; 432 likely MT-1 voters) finds Zinke leading Tranel by only a 47-43 percent margin with the Libertarian candidate taking three percentage points. While the Montana Democratic Party failed in their lawsuit to disqualify the Libertarian Party from the statewide ballot, in this race the presence of a minor party candidate might be helping their contender. While Rep. Zinke is still favored, it appears we are headed for another tight finish.

Poll Confirms Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race; A GOP Lead in Swing Congressional District; Tight Race in Montana; Final Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: Confirming Poll — Last week, we reported on a CNN poll (part of a six-state polling series; Aug. 23-29; 789 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) that found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46 percent) for the first time in this year’s Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4, Sen. Casey averaged a seven-point spread over the course of 14 publicly released surveys.

In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group (Aug. 28-30; 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) basically verified CNN’s tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Casey tops McCormick by only one point, 46-45 percent, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.

Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College (Aug. 25-28; 950 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projected the senator’s lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44 percent, but still within the same realm as the others. Despite Sen. Casey’s strong 2:1 spending advantage, it appears this race is becoming highly competitive as we move deeper into political prime time.

House

MI-7: Poll Shows GOP Lead in Swing CD: — With Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) now running for the Senate, it leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Cygnal research organization released an MI-7 survey (Aug. 27-29; 420 likely MI-7 voters; live interview & text) that finds Republican former state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43 percent count. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.

MT-1: New Poll Shows Even Tighter Race — Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week’s release of the Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MI-1 voters; live interview & text). The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Tranel 49-43 percent, but the challenger’s own internal poll arrives at a different result.

The Tranel campaign’s Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (Aug. 26-29; 500 likely MI-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44 percent, in the congressman’s favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke’s favorability index is an upside-down 41:51 percent positive to negative.

Rep. Zinke defeated Tranel 50-46 percent in 2022. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump scored a 52-45 percent victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another under-performing election.

Primary Results

Delaware: Mayer Wins Gov Primary — New Castle County Executive Mike Meyer easily defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long by just over 10 percentage points in last night’s Delaware Democratic gubernatorial primary. Hall-Long was saddled with campaign finance issues after failing to report funds paid directly to her husband. Mayer will now become the prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R-Newark) who claimed the GOP nomination with 72 percent of the vote.

In the Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) and businessman Eric Hansen (R) advance to the general election. Rep. Blunt Rochester is the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

In the open House race, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) convincingly won the Democratic primary with 80 percent of the vote, and becomes the heavy favorite to win the at-large seat in November against the new Republican nominee, retired businessman John Whalen.

New Hampshire: Primary Launches Competitive General Election Campaigns — The open governor’s race ended as expected, and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) will battle in November to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R). This will be a highly competitive general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott defeated businessman Hollie Noveletsky and Manchester City Alderman Joseph Levasseur in a close vote. Prescott now advances to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) who was a big winner on the Democratic side. The 1st District has a penchant for defeating incumbents but has stabilized since Pappas was originally elected in 2018.

In the open 2nd District with Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) retiring, competitive primaries in both parties yielded former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander defeating previous Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern to win the Democratic nomination after a nasty campaign.

On the Republican side, with 13 candidates, former Libertarian Party state chair Lily Tang Williams won the party nomination and advances to the general election. The 2nd District has proven competitive in the past, but it is already clear that Goodlander will have the inside track toward claiming the seat in November.

Rhode Island: No Opposition — No real opposition was present in this primary. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) all are headed toward easy re-election victories in November.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.