Tag Archives: Redistricting

Redistricting: Tennessee & Alabama

Click on the map above to see a larger image size, or go here to see the map on the Tennessee Legislature’s site: https://www.capitol.tn.gov/common/img/US-House_2026_Proposed.jpg

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 8, 2026

Tennessee

The Volunteer State’s legislature passed a new congressional map, and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed the legislation into law late this week. The map will likely produce a new 9R-0D congressional delegation.

Principally, the map divides the previous 9th District that contained the city of Memphis and was almost wholly contained in Shelby County into sections. The draw creates a new 9th CD that houses part of Shelby County but then stretches to the outer Nashville suburbs. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) has represented the 9th CD since the beginning of 2007 as a Caucasian in a 60 percent African American district.

Despite having a white Representative, the 9th was a protected majority minority district under the Voting Rights Act. With last week’s US Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana case, the TN-9 District may be redrawn because race can now be used as a factor in redistricting only if the underlying situation involves prisons or if there is demonstrative evidence that a racial community historically has been directly barred access to voting. Since neither of the criteria exists in this area, the new map was drawn.

The new 9th stretches from the south Memphis suburbs easterly along the Mississippi border and past the city of Shelbyville before turning north to move into the outer Nashville suburbs found in Franklin County. The seat transforms from one where Kamala Harris attracted 70.8 percent of the district vote to a CD where President Trump would have defeated her with a 59.9 – 38.8 percent margin.

Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Columbia) 5th District is also vastly different under the new map. Part of the reason for the drastic change was to give Rep. Ogles a different Republican district to help him survive certain political fallout that was endangering his re-election chances.

The 5th, while continuing to begin in the area south and west of Nashville, then moves northwest to capture part of the city of Clarksville near the Kentucky border before moving to the Missouri border and then south along the Arkansas border all the way through Shelby County and the city of Memphis to Mississippi. The new 5th would have yielded President Trump a 60.9 – 37.8 percent win, a slight uptick over the previous 5th CD where Trump defeated Harris, 58.1 – 40.3 percent.

The new map changes every congressional district in Tennessee’s central and western regions. The most negatively affected seat for an incumbent is Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Germantown), who sees his 8th CD that occupies most of far western Tennessee and stretches from the Kentucky border to Mississippi into one that has a more west to east construction.

In terms of partisanship, Kustoff takes a major hit but would still have a solidly Republican district. Under the previous 8th, President Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 70.0 – 28.9 percent spread. Under the new plan, the Trump victory margin would have been 59.4 – 39.2 percent or a negative swing from Rep. Kustoff’s perspective of a net 20.9 points. Still, the new 8th will be rated as safely Republican.

Aside from Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Kingsport) northeastern District 1 where President Trump would have captured 78.4 percent of the vote, the remaining 8 congressional districts all fall between 67.2 percent Trump to 59.4 percent.

With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline already passed, but the state’s primary not until Aug. 6, the Governor has plenty of time to change the US House filing schedule in order to implement the new map for the 2026 election.

Alabama

Decisions were made with regard to Alabama redistricting, too. Because this state is in precisely the same situation as Louisiana, their remedy will be similar. Instead of drawing a new map, however, the legislature says it will revert to a plan passed in 2023, but which was declared a racial gerrymander.

With the ruling criteria established from the Callais v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court, the legislative leaders believe the previously drawn 2023 map will be legal under the definitive SCOTUS ruling. Therefore, they have reinstituted the plan. The question remains as to whether a court will approve the maneuver in time for the 2026 election.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, so obviously the Governor will have to establish a new nomination date for the state’s US House races. Should the 2023 map stand, it is likely that freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will be the odd man out, since this map basically restores the footprint of the 2021 map. This means that both the cities of Mobile and Montgomery will anchor their own districts as opposed to being placed in the same 1st District as is the current case.

The change to the 2023 map would very likely return Alabama to a 6R-1D delegation as compared to the current 5R-2D division.

The Ohio Outlook

To see an interactive view of this 2026 Ohio Congressional Districts map, click on the image above or go to Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 7, 2026

Ohio Elections

The Indiana and Ohio primaries were held on Tuesday, and while the Indiana general election appears quiet, we will see plenty of action in the Buckeye State of Ohio.

The Senate and Governor’s races will be hotly contested and expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) returns in a comeback attempt after losing his seat in 2024 to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R). Now against appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), we will see a different race.

It is important to remember that former Sen. Brown received 230,000-plus more votes in his 2024 losing effort than he did when he last won in 2018. Yet, he still lost by just under four percentage points, thus showing how far Ohio has moved to the political right.

We can expect this year’s race to be expensive, and it will continue to feature close polling. In the campaign’s final two weeks, if the typical Ohio pattern remains true in 2026, Husted will pull away and win with a comfortable single-digit margin.

The open Governor’s race, featuring Republican businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, and Democratic ex-Ohio Health Director Amy Acton will also be very expensive and potentially end in a closer finish than the Senate campaign. Dr. Acton was in charge of the state’s COVID response, so expect her decision to advocate and implement a full shutdown during the pandemic to become a campaign issue.

In the US House campaigns in Ohio, six contests are of note. The most vulnerable seats under the new Ohio congressional map, to which the bipartisan elected officials redistricting commission unanimously agreed, are those of Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati).

Former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who won Tuesday’s 9th District Republican primary, was also the nominee in 2024; in that ’24 contest, Merrin came within seven-tenths of a percentage point of unseating Rep. Kaptur, now fourth in US House seniority having been first elected in 1982.

The redistricting map made Democratic Rep. Kaptur’s Toledo-anchored 9th CD even more Republican. Under the new plan, President Trump would have carried the seat by a 55-44 percent margin, a net four points more Republican than the previous district configuration. This race will be a top national GOP conversion opportunity.

The Democratic House Majority PAC has already committed more than $3 million in advertising buys in the Toledo market to help Rep. Kaptur, so we will see another red-hot campaign here unfold over the next few months.

In Cincinnati, Rep. Landsman’s 1st District is also more Republican when compared to the previous Ohio congressional map. Before the changes, Kamala Harris recorded a 53-46 percent victory margin over President Trump. Rep. Landsman scored a re-election win percentage of 55 in 2024 after unseating veteran Rep. Steve Chabot (R) two years earlier with a 53 percent victory total.

Under the new redistricting map, however, the 1st District dramatically changes. Instead of President Trump losing by seven points, he would have carried the new CD-1 with a three-point margin. Therefore, we see a net 10-point swing in Republicans’ favor, which certainly makes the 1st District 2026 campaign a major national target.

Former CIA case officer Eric Conroy became the consensus Republican candidate, and he easily won Tuesday’s Republican primary with 70 percent of the vote against two opponents.

But the Democratic incumbent is no pushover. Rep. Landsman already possesses $2.9 million in his campaign account, and the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.9 million in Cincinnati media time to aid his campaign.

Democrats are also targeting other races that appear as long shots. The House Majority PAC has reserved media airtime (including digital advertising) in the Cleveland market ($1.175 million) largely to target Rep. Max Miller (R-Rocky River) in the new 7th CD. Winning the Democratic nomination on Tuesday night is Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter.

Some of the Cleveland market buy could also be used to support Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron). Her 13th District was thought to be a major target in 2026, but the new map actually made the seat more Democratic. Therefore, the top Republican candidate, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who held the Congresswoman to a 51-49 percent victory in 2024, dropped out of the race. As a result, Democrat Sykes is in strong position for re-election without much help needed from outside organizations.

The House Majority PAC is also investing heavily in the Dayton and Columbus markets.

In the 10th District, the Democrats are targeting veteran Rep. Mike Turner (R-Dayton). A $2.8 million media reservation in the Dayton market suggests their efforts are serious. The new Democratic nominee is nurse and Air Force veteran Kristina Knickerbocker, who defeated five Democratic opponents with one-third of the primary vote.

It remains to be seen if Knickerbocker can mount a serious challenge, but the HMP’s big monetary commitment suggests that they will make OH-10 a top national priority.

Finally, in what is clearly a long-shot effort, the House Majority PAC has reserved $1.8 million in Columbus media time to challenge Rep. Mike Carey (R-Columbus). His 15th District seat is a mid-50s Republican domain, which makes unseating a GOP incumbent very difficult.

The new Democratic nominee, defeating the 2024 challenger on Tuesday, is college professor Don Leonard. Party leaders believe he would be a stronger candidate than former state Rep. Adam Miller who lost to Carey 56-44 percent in the last election.

Though the media time is reserved, the buyer can make changes and cancellations (with a financial penalty) before the actual payment comes due. Therefore, if these challenges do not materialize to a satisfactory degree, the House Majority PAC leaders can transfer the money to fund other races.

Expect the Ohio electorate to play a major role in determining which party will control the House in the next Congress.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.

Colorado Joins Redistricting Wars

Colorado Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App interactive map

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 23, 2026

Redistricting

Yet another state is making a redistricting move, but this one is for the future.

A new organization called Coloradans for a Level Playing Field announced this week that it will attempt to qualify a congressional redistricting ballot proposition for the November 2026 ballot. The proponents will encourage the electorate to enact a new map designed to create the exact opposite effect of their stated name.

The outline of the suggested redistricting map would reduce the Republicans to just one of the state’s eight congressional seats, into a 7D-1R split. Currently, the Colorado delegation is split 4D-4R. If the group organizers are successful in qualifying their initiative and the measure passes, the new map would take effect for the 2028 and 2030 election cycles.

The current Colorado Independent Redistricting Commissions’ congressional panel members constructed the current map in 2021. Some consider the Centennial State redistricting process as a model for other places. Citizens are chosen to create maps in accordance with Colorado redistricting statutes, and when pertinent, federal redistricting law.

Once an assigned panel agrees upon and formally passes a map, the plan is automatically sent to the state Supreme Court for approval. Adding the court to the formal procedure has resulted in no filed lawsuits against any of the commission maps because Colorado’s ultimate redistricting authority declared the legality of the plan(s) at the outset.

The Colorado system also features a different group of citizens being chosen to draw individual maps, meaning the plans for Congress, state Senate, state House, and any other body that elects its members through districts.

The fledgling Level Playing Field organization, backed financially by Democratic Party sources, is floating four different proposals, and the leaders say they will soon formulate their final strategy and submit one map to the Secretary of State. Once the proposed ballot language is approved, the group then must recruit 124,238 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the referendum.

The other alternative for approving a proposed referendum is through the legislature and obtaining a required two-thirds votes for passage in each chamber. Democrats, however, are slightly below having a two-thirds majority in both houses, meaning their chances of prevailing at the state capitol are less than favorable.

The released map proposal, if adopted as publicized, would change three Republican districts, those of Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), and Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton) from safely Republican or toss-up seats (the latter in Rep. Evans’ case), into likely Democratic districts.

Ironically, the only Republican member that the Democrat-funded map drawers would concede to a GOP member is the state’s eastern 4th District of Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), likely the Level Playing Field leadership’s least favorite incumbent.

Under the proposal most likely to surface as the final map, Rep. Hurd’s district would transform from a 52.6R – 43.3D district according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians into a western Colorado CD that would feature a virtually opposite 51.1D – 46.2R split. The change adds Democrats from Rep. Joe Neguse’s (D-Lafayette) 2nd District that would bring the new 3rd geographically closer to the outer Denver suburbs.

Rep. Crank’s 5th CD would move from a 56.1R – 38.9D partisan lean to one that yields a 52.2D – 45.0R split. The move here would also drive the Colorado Springs-anchored district much closer to Denver, taking Democrats mostly from Rep. Brittany Pettersen’s (D-Lakewood) 7th CD.

Finally, involving perhaps the most politically marginal district in the country, Rep. Evans’ 8th CD located north and east of Denver with a partisan lean of 48.3D – 47.0R, would become decidedly Democratic, brandishing a new 53.0D – 44.1R partisan division.

Finally, the changes would push the Republican factor in Rep. Boebert’s district even higher. Currently, the 4th District partisan lean is 60.3R – 35.9D. The new map increases the Republican figure to 63.3 with a corresponding Democratic benchmark of 34.3. Extra Republicans were added to this district from Rep. Crank’s 5th CD to make the latter seat more Democratic.

The Colorado redistricting initiative process has a long way to go and qualifying a new map for a ballot referendum this year is no certain task. If successful, the new congressional map will be in place for the 2028 and 2030 elections with the Colorado Independent Commissions process returning to draw a new post-census 2032 map that will be designed to last through the ensuing decade.

Ohio’s Significance

Ohio Congressional redistricting map. To see interactive map, click on image above or here: Dave’s Redistricting App.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025

Ohio

The Buckeye State of Ohio is another key 2026 electoral state. With an open Governor’s race, an appointed Senator seeking his first federal election, and as many as three top congressional campaigns, Ohio is clearly a place of significance in determining how the 2026 election will unfold.

A new Emerson College poll (Dec. 6-8; 850 likely Ohio general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) tested both the state’s open Governor’s race and how appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is faring opposite former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D).

The Ohio political polling history typically features closely competing contests that tend to break, usually toward the Republican candidate, in the last two weeks of the campaign. While Ohio elections have been close over the years, few results have been forced into recounts.

The familiar polling pattern is already beginning. It remains to be seen if the elections will end in a similarly historical fashion.

According to Emerson, Democratic former state Health Director Amy Acton leads businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, 46-45 percent, meaning the open Governor’s contest is a virtual tie. Incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Looking at the Senate race, appointed incumbent Husted records a three point, 49-46 percent, edge over former Sen. Brown. It is important to remember that in Brown’s losing 2024 effort, he received more votes than he did for his last re-election victory (2018) yet still lost to current Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) by six percentage points.

As we know, Sen. Husted, at the time of appointment was the state’s sitting Lieutenant Governor, replaced resigned-Sen. J.D. Vance who, of course, left the legislative body to become Vice President. Sen. Husted must now run in 2026 to serve the balance of the current term. He will be eligible to seek a full six-year stint in 2028.

Ohio has also enacted a new congressional redistricting map, an exercise required under state law. Because the 2021 plan was adopted with only majority support in both houses of the legislature, and not a three-fifths count, the congressional map could stand for only two elections, meaning 2022 and 2024.

Last month, the bipartisan elected official redistricting commission, which includes Gov. DeWine, unanimously agreed upon a new map. Since every commissioner supported the new plan, legislative approval was not required under the state’s procedure, meaning the new map automatically became law.

The Ohio US House delegation currently stands at 10R-5D. Republican strategists hoped a new map would yield a two-seat gain, but such a final result could be a stretch under the new design. It does appear the Republicans will net at least one new seat, that of veteran Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Competition opposite Reps. Greg Landsman (D-Cincinnati) and Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) is also possible, particularly for the former.

In 2024, Rep. Kaptur, in a 9th District where the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation was 48.8D – 48.6R, won re-election with just a 48.3 – 47.6 percent margin over then-state Rep. Derek Merrin (R). Under the new 2025 enacted plan, the DRA partisan lean is 55.2R – 44.0D, obviously a strong swing toward the eventual Republican nominee.

In Cincinnati’s 1st Congressional District, two-term Rep. Landsman sees his district transform from one that carried a DRA partisan lean 49.9D – 47.9R to a Republican majority seat at 51.6R – 47.5D. With a candidate filing deadline of Feb. 4 for the May 5 primary, the Republican leadership still has some time to find a highly credible challenger to the now vulnerable Democratic Congressman.

The original Republican plan objective called for targeting two-term Rep. Sykes, who had won two close elections from her northern Ohio 13th District. Republicans had a strong candidate in 2024 nominee and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin who came within two percentage points of upsetting Rep. Sykes.

After seeing the new partisan lean calculation of 51.0D – 48.2R, however, Coughlin decided that even this slight swing toward making the district more Democratic was a bridge too far for him to overcome in a midterm election. The previous DRA partisan lean for District 13 was 50.7D – 47.0R. Therefore, he withdrew from the race. Republican leaders are also looking to recruit a strong candidate for this seat.

As you can see, the Buckeye State has a number of crucial races that will determine the state’s direction in electing a new Governor, and possibly the federal outcome, too, with an important Senate race and several hot congressional campaigns.

More Texas News in the Spotlight:
Latest Senate, Redistricting Updates

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 24, 2025

New polling data was just released in Texas that confirms what many observers have opined about the Lone Star State’s US Senate campaign, and a scathing dissent from one of the three-judge panel members who heard the latest redistricting case could pave the way for a Supreme Court stay.

Senate

Texas state flag

Ragnar Research (Nov. 12-17; 1,000 likely Texas voters; live interview) released a new Texas US Senate poll that supports the common political supposition pertaining to the Lone Star State Senate race. That is, Sen. John Cornyn (R) would lead both 2024 Senate nominee and ex-Congressman Colin Allred (D) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), but Attorney General Ken Paxton would be in danger of losing the general election.

In this poll, Sen. Cornyn leads Allred 47-40 percent and Talarico by a similar 46-40 percent split, both beyond the polling margin of error. As predicted, the two Democrats fare better against Paxton. Allred would lead 44-43 percent, and Rep. Talarico would tie the scandal-tainted AG at 44-44 percent.

The third announced Republican in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), was not tested, nor was Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) on the Democratic side. Crockett has been leading in other Texas Democratic statewide primary polls but has not yet made a decision about whether to enter the Senate race.

The latest judicial redistricting ruling from the El Paso three-judge panel suggests Rep. Crockett may stay in the House since the 2025 Texas map invalidation restores her 30th Congressional District to its previous boundaries.

According to Ragnar Research partner Chris Perkins, who conducted this poll, wrote “John Cornyn is the strongest candidate for Republicans in a general election, as he has a clear lead. Paxton is statistically tied with either of the Democrat candidates and jeopardizes the ability of Republicans to hold the seat.”

The Texas Senate race is one of the key focal points of the 2026 election cycle. It will be perhaps the only Senate contest that features a contested primary in both parties along with a highly competitive general election.

Redistricting

Fifth District Circuit Judge Jerry E. Smith, a member of the three-judge panel that invalidated the 2025 Texas redistricting map as a racial gerrymander over his objection, published a scathing dissent to the ruling. In his document, Judge Smith referred to lead Judge Jeffrey Brown’s decision as “the most blatant exercise of judicial activism that I have ever witnessed.” Judge Smith stated that he has been a federal judge for 37 years.

The dissent opinion begins by saying that, “the main winners from Judge Brown’s opinion are George Soros and Gavin Newsom. The obvious losers are the People of Texas and the Rule of Law.”

Throughout a 104-page document, Judge Smith details 11 different examples of how ruling that the 2025 Texas map is a racial gerrymander is either “false, misleading, deeply misleading, or deceptive.”

The state of Texas has already appealed, asking that the current ruling be stayed. Appealing a three-judge panel decision goes directly to the US Supreme Court and an official answer must be rendered. The justice assigned to oversee the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, in which Texas resides, is Samuel Alito. The justices have the individual power to issue stays on cases from the circuits in which they oversee.

If Justice Alito were to grant a stay on the Brown panel redistricting ruling, the 2025 map would return as the official Texas map. With candidate filing closing on Dec. 8, a quick ruling on the stay motion is imperative since the two maps are radically different in 11 of Texas’ 38 congressional districts.

How Texas Changes

To see larger image, click on above map. To see interactive maps, go to Dave’s Redistricting App: Texas 2021 Plan | Texas 2025 Plan

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 20, 2025

Redistricting

The El Paso three-judge panel ruling that invalidates the new Texas map, if allowed to stand, will greatly disrupt the Lone Star State political cycle as candidates currently prepare for an early March 3, 2026, primary election.

In reverting to the 2021 map, 37 of the state’s 38 congressional districts will change, thus altering virtually all the candidates campaign strategies and geographic targets.

Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant between the two maps. A total of 26 districts experience only minor changes, while 11 see major alterations.

Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open, but returning to the 2021 map will likely mean that number drops to seven. It is also probable that one member who announced his retirement under the 2025 map, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin), will return to run again if the 2021 map is formally reinstated.

In the invalidated plan, Reps. Doggett and Greg Casar (D-Austin) were paired in a new 37th District, while Rep. Casar’s 35th CD was created as an open seat that stretched into rural counties east of San Antonio. If the 2021 plan is in place for next year’s election, both will have back their previous districts. Doggett said earlier that he would return to seek re-election if the 2025 map was tossed and the previous plan restored.

In the ’25 draw, a new 9th District was created in eastern Harris County. Should the three-judge panel’s ruling be upheld, this district will go away and the candidates seeking this seat will have no place to run.

Should the previous 9th District return, Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) would again seek re-election in this district and would not be paired in a new 18th CD with the winner of the Jan. 31 special runoff election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away.

Rep. Michael McCaul’s (R-Austin) 10th District would still be an open seat, and though the territory is different from the invalidated map, the candidate pool would likely remain the same. This is similar to the situation in the 8th and 21st Districts where Rep. Morgan Luttrell (R-Magnolia) is retiring, and four-term incumbent Chip Roy (R-Austin) passed on re-election to run for state Attorney General.

Turning to South Texas, Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) will naturally see a return to her original 15th District configuration. The new 15th would have given her more Republican voters. Still, she should again be able to win re-election in the 2021 version.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) saw some of the territory that gave him the most trouble go away under the new version of District 28. Rep. Cuellar had two close calls in the Democratic primary largely because of the San Antonio region. The 2025 map moved this district further into South Texas. If the previous districts are reinstated, he may again draw a more combative Democratic primary opponent, while still facing a competitive general election.

One of the districts most affected in South Texas was Rep. Vicente Gonzalez’s (D-McAllen) 34th CD anchored in Brownsville. The Congressman would have been in serious trouble under the new plan, but the 2021 version returns his much stronger Democratic base. Still, his victory margin in 2024 was only 51-49 percent over former Congresswoman Mayra Flores (R), and he can expect to face her again. She would have been favored in the new district, but Rep. Gonzalez returns to having the stronger political position under the 2021 map.

The Dallas area was changed greatly under the 2025 plan. The two members most affected were Reps. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) and Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch). Under the new plan, all of Rep. Veasey’s home Tarrant County turf was moved into different districts, leaving his 33rd CD as a self-contained seat within Dallas County.

Under the new plan, Veasey was looking to leave the House to run for Tarrant County Judge (Executive). If the previous map returns, it is possible that he will seek re-election.

Rep. Johnson, who saw her 32nd District moved largely into Republican East Texas, would return to the previous district under the 2021 plan. She was looking to move into Rep. Veasey’s vacated 33rd District if the new map were in place.

Republicans had calculated a gain of five seats under the new map, though some of the predictions might have been overly optimistic, such as, beating Rep. Cuellar in his new 28th CD and securing the open 35th CD.

If the three-judge panel’s decision holds, it is probable that we will see no Republican gain under the 2021 map thus making the chances of retaining their slim majority even more precarious.

Texas Redistricting Map Tossed

(Click on map to see full-size detail.)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025

Redistricting

The already complicated 2025 national redistricting scene is now even more complex.

Yesterday, in a 2-1 ruling, a three-judge federal panel in El Paso ruled that the new Texas map is a racial gerrymander and therefore voided. The panel majority ordered the previous 2021 map reinstated.

Critics say the ruling is questionable since no racial data was used in drawing the map and the decision knowingly defines the US Department of Justice officials’ intent. The 160-page ruling document also quotes liberal news sources to provide support for its supposition that Republican legislators en masse were opposed to a redraw until DOJ added a racial component regarding coalition districts, meaning those where a compilation of all minority groups create a non-white majority.

The state of Texas is expected to appeal the ruling. All appeals of three-judge panel decisions go directly to the US Supreme Court, and the justices must respond.
The ruling also creates a further potential conflicting situation when considering that the Justice Department filed a racial gerrymandering complaint against the new California map on Nov. 13. A California three-judge federal panel will be formed to hear that case.

Things will change to an even greater extent if, which is likely, a 9th Circuit three-judge panel rules that the California map is not a racial gerrymander. If so, then expect the Justice Department to appeal such a ruling, meaning the Supreme Court will be dealing with conflicting decisions within a similar issue set.

Because the Texas political calendar features an early March 3 primary, and candidate filing concludes on Dec. 8, a great deal of confusion now reigns for the candidates running in the various 38 districts. Only District 19, now the open seat of retiring Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Lubbock), remained constant in the two maps. Under the 2025 Texas plan, nine seats are open and some of the districts are radically different from the 2021 map.

If the Supreme Court issues the requested stay, possibly because the Texas case arguments could be affected with the high court’s eventual ruling on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, the 2025 map would likely return for the 2026 election cycle.

Considering the chaos surrounding the Lone Star State case, what the California decision could be, and the subsequent US Supreme Court action on the coming stay motion, along with the ultimate Louisiana ruling, it is possible that Texas could postpone the state primary.

There has been precedent for postponing a primary for a set of affected political contests, in this case the congressional campaigns because of redistricting. Doing so would give the high court more time to render a final decision that hopefully would be definitive as it relates to racial gerrymandering.

Louisiana, awaiting their SCOTUS redistricting decision after going through a second round of oral arguments, has already postponed their primary one month — from April 18 to May 16.

To further complicate matters, Gov. Greg Abbott has now ordered the special runoff election to fill Houston’s 18th District congressional vacancy to be held on Jan. 31, 2026.

The runoff features a contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D), both of whom qualified for the secondary election in the Nov. 4 initial vote.

Immediately upon winning the special election, the victor will face Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in the regular 2026 primary election on March 3. Now with the confusion about where the candidates must file, the District 18 special election could be one more reason the Texas regular primary might be postponed. TX-18 is vacant because incumbent Rep. Sylvester Turner (D) passed away earlier in the year.

With such a short time frame affecting so many Texas congressional candidates and electorates, firm decisions must soon be made.

California Numbers:
Some Democrats Actually Fare Worse

California Congressional redistricting map. Click on image or here to see interactive version: Dave’s Redistricing App.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 17, 2025

Redistricting

The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statistical organization released their data figures for the new 52 California redistricted congressional districts, and their non-partisan analysis may not be quite as rosy for the Democrats as Gov. Gavin Newsom and the party leaders have boasted. The DRA is the only data organization that has already calculated a clear partisan division for all of the new Golden State districts.

Several Democratic incumbents, and surprisingly the two considered most vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, actually fare worse when compared to the previous draw. Several Republican districts have no doubt been destroyed, but the situation may not be as dire for the GOP as Gov. Newsom’s media spin leads one to believe.

Starting in Northern California, Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R-Oroville) 1st District has been transformed into a Democratic district. According to the DRA partisan lean calculations, the 1st moves from 60.2R – 37.7D to 55.2D – 44.1R. With state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) positioning himself to challenge Rep. LaMalfa, the Republican Congressman will have a very difficult time winning an eighth term.

Rep. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) is leaving his Sacramento County 6th District to run in District 3, which is now a point more Democratic than his home district. There, he will ostensibly challenge two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento). The move puts Rep. Kiley in a bad position since his 3rd CD has flipped from holding a partisan lean of 52.5R – 45.6D to one having a 53.4D – 45.7R split, a net swing of just under 15 percentage points toward the Democratic segment.

There is some speculation that Rep. Kiley will vacate District 3 and attempt to unseat fellow Republican Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) in District 5, one of just four safe Republican seats in the state. The new CA-5 partisan lean: 60.7R – 38.7D.

Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) was the closest winner of all 435 districts in the 2024 election, a 187-vote win over then-Rep. John Duarte (R). Surprisingly, the new map makes the latest version of CA-13 slightly less Democratic. The previous partisan lean was 54.0D – 44.2R, yet Duarte won the seat in 2022 and barely lost in 2024. The new partisan lean is a net 4.6 percentage points more Republican (52.4D – 46.9R).

Though the new 13th District remains more Democratic, the congressional voting history shows weakness in the Dem fortress. A strong candidate such as former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R), who has already announced that he will run, projects another difficult race for Gray.

Fresno Rep. Jim Costa (D) has averaged only 53.4 percent of the vote in his two elections but his district, just like Rep. Gray’s, actually moves more Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App calculations. Instead of seeing a 58.5D – 39.9R partisan lean, the new district records a 54.4D – 45.0R swing, a net gain of 9.2 percentage points in the Republicans’ favor. Though Rep. Costa will still be favored to carry the new 21st CD, seeing a potential Republican upset develop here is not outside the realm of possibility.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) has always been a major national Democratic target since he represents one of the most Democratic districts to send a Republican to the US House. Despite facing an adverse partisan lean in the previous District 22 version of 55.5D – 42.6R, Rep. Valadao secured two consecutive victories. This is another Central Valley district where the non-partisan calculations find the Republican factor getting better on this new map.

Moving forward, the DRA partisan lean for CD-22 is 52.1D – 47.3R, representing a net Republican gain of 8.1 percentage points. Therefore, with Rep. Valadao securing a 53-47 percent victory under the previous partisan lean, his chances should improve under this new 2026 map.

Seven-term Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) also sees his sprawling desert district become a bit more Republican. According to the past and present DRA partisan lean calculations, Rep. Ruiz’s 25th District is 5.5 percentage points more Republican. The new partisan lean is 54.2D – 45.3R, which clearly still favors Democrats, but the new draw makes the seat potentially more competitive.

The new 40th District is the final domain conceded to the Republicans. At this point, it appears both Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra) may be fighting each other to capture this seat. Rep. Calvert has already declared he will run here as his 41st District was transferred to Los Angeles County from Riverside County, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Whittier) has declared her intent to run in that district.

Neither Reps. Calvert nor Kim represent a great deal of the new 40th, so we will see how this paired contest eventually unfolds. It is possible that both could advance to the general election under the state’s jungle primary format so we might see a year-long campaign between the two Republicans.

Another surprising aspect on this new map is the draw for freshman Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) in the new 45th District. In 2024, Tran unseated two-term GOP Rep. Michelle Steel (R) by 653 votes, which made it the second-closest congressional race in California and the nation. Yet, under the new map, the partisan lean actually moves slightly more toward the Republicans. When Rep. Tran won, the DRA partisan lean was 52.2D – 45.9R. The new ratio is 51.7D – 47.5R, a net swing of 2.1 percentage points toward the GOP.

While Rep. Tran will still see more Democratic voters in his district than Republican, we can count on the GOP making a major effort here. Under the new draw, this seat could be another option for Rep. Kim.

The final district that was greatly changed is Rep. Darrell Issa’s (R-San Diego) 48th District. The seat flips from having a partisan lean of 58.3R – 39.8D to a new district, largely because of including most of the city of Encinitas, that yields a 50.6D – 48.7R partisan split. Obviously, the district is somewhat more Democratic, but the numbers are close enough that Rep. Issa will have a fighting chance to win again.

While Democrats will very likely gain seats under this new draw and reduce California’s Republican contingent to fewer than the nine seats they currently control, stretching to a Democratic gain of five might not be achieved.

Utah Redistricts

Watch this report by Fox 13 News|Utah: Utah Redistricting

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

Redistricting

On Monday, the presiding Utah state judge chose a new congressional map that will significantly change the Beehive State delegation.

Previously, Judge Dianna Gibson (D) had invalidated the current map drawn in 2021 because she maintained the legislature ignored criteria that voters approved through a ballot initiative. The Utah state Supreme Court then upheld her opinion.

The result included bringing forth maps that adhered to the missing criteria. Judge Gibson chose the version that created a Salt Lake City metro district that will assuredly elect a Democratic Representative and change the Utah delegation from a 4R-0D contingent to 3R-1D.

An alternative plan would have created two Republican seats and two politically marginal districts that both parties would have had a chance of winning. The judge’s decision, however, now gives former one-term Congressman Ben McAdams (D), among others, a chance at winning a Democratic primary, which would punch a ticket to the House of Representatives.

McAdams was elected to the House in 2018, defeating the now-deceased Congresswoman Mia Love (R). He then lost two years later to current Representative and former NFL football player Burgess Owens (R-Draper).

Kamala Harris would have carried the new 1st District by a 60-37 percent count according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The remaining three districts are all solidly Republican, featuring Trump victories with spreads from 29 to 41 points in 2024.

With the Democrats gaining a Utah seat, one of the current four Republican Representatives will be out after the 2026 election.

Of the three, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) appears to have the new northern 2nd District all to himself. Though his home is not in the 2nd, his original hometown of Ogden is one of the key population centers. The other is the city of Logan where Utah State University is located.

The new 3rd CD, which looks like a backwards letter “L”, is the seat that currently would house two Republican incumbents, two-term Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) and freshman Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine). The district begins in the Provo area, moves south all the way to Arizona along the Colorado border, and then west to Nevada, the area that encompasses Rep. Maloy’s home turf.

Rep. Owens’ home is in the new 4th CD, which covers the west-central part of the state. This district contains a significant portion of Rep. Maloy’s constituency, which means she could also run in new District 4.

If all four Republican incumbents seek re-election, then the Maloy-Kennedy pairing is the most likely outcome. Rep. Maloy is the weakest politically in the delegation. She won the 2024 Republican primary by just 176 votes (50.1 percent) after barely securing 43 percent of the nominating convention vote. Not opting to circulate petitions, Maloy could have lost her seat in the convention had she slipped below the primary qualifying 40 percent delegate vote factor.

Rep. Kennedy is much stronger. He won the five-way Republican primary with almost 40 percent of the vote after demonstrating dominance in the nominating convention with 61.5 percent of the delegate vote.

Another scenario suggests that three-term Rep. Owens, who will be 75 years. old at the next election, could retire. If this were his decision, Rep. Maloy would likely run in the 4th District, thus leaving the 3rd CD to Kennedy.

Most of the delegation has little in the way of available campaign funds. The exception, Rep. Moore, holds almost $2.2 million in his campaign account, which compares very favorably against Rep. Kennedy’s $240,000, Rep. Maloy’s $201,000, and $167,000 for Rep. Owens. The fundraising figures are from the members’ Sept. 30 Federal Election Commission quarterly report and could have changed significantly since the totals were made public.

The new judicial map will almost assuredly be in place for the 2026 election. Since the state Supreme Court has already ruled earlier in the process, any lawsuit filed to overturn the map would have very little chance of succeeding.

Therefore, the bottom line on the just completed Utah redistricting process is a one seat Democratic gain.