Tag Archives: Vice President Kamala Harris

Polling Accuracy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2024

Polling

President-Elect Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There has been a great deal of controversial discussion about the 2024 political polling. Many continue to raise questions about the major polling firms’ cumulative accuracy rating, but is the criticism fair?

The perception that the polling industry missed President-Elect Donald Trump’s “landslide” win is not particularly accurate. Though Trump swept the battleground states, the margins were close, and virtually all of the 2024 presidential pollsters forecast close races in the critical states, which is the end result.

A typical polling margin of error is three percentage points. Using this as the accuracy scale, the Real Clear Politics polling average suggests that across the battleground board, the average survey fell within such a range.

In national polling, the ending Real Clear Politics average found Kamala Harris cumulatively leading by the smallest of margins, at 0.1 percent. These numbers include 24 polls from 14 different polling organizations.

While they did miss the projection of which candidate was leading, the cumulative margin was well within the margin of error. Since Trump is winning the national popular vote by 1.8 percentage points, the polling community average of 0.1 point separating the two candidate was a miss of 1.9 percentage points, but well within the margin of error.

In the battleground states, the least accurate polling came in Arizona. There, the Real Clear Politics average suggested a 2.8 percent lead for Trump, but he carried the state by a 5.5 percent margin. This was a 2.7 point miss.

The other states where the polling mark was two points off or more came in North Carolina and Nevada. The NC polling average suggested a Trump win margin of 1.2 percentage points. In actuality, the president-elect carried the state by 3.2 percent. In Nevada, the miss was a bit worse.

Pollsters pegged Trump with a lead of 0.6 percent, but he carried the Silver State with a 3.1 percent margin, thus the cumulative miss was 2.5 points.

The most accurate of the state presidential polling came in Georgia. The average projection suggested a Trump lead of 1.3 percent, but he won the state with a 2.2-point margin. Thus, the average poll figure missed the actual result by 0.9 points, again well within the polling margin of error.

In the seven battleground states, the polling community correctly projected five of the seven Trump wins. The two misses were Michigan and Wisconsin, but both fell only a half-point or less off the pace.

The one consistent error point in all of the battleground states, and nationally, was underestimating the Republican vote strength. This has been a consistent pattern during the Trump era, and it happened again in 2024 but to a lesser degree.

The numbers in the 11 competitive Senate races were not as accurate as the presidential projections.

The least accurately polled state was Florida where Sen. Rick Scott (R) recorded almost a 13-point victory, yet the polling average for his race against former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) suggested a much closer outcome. The two were separated by an average of 4.6 points in Sen. Scott’s favor.

A similar pattern, but to a lesser degree, occurred in Texas. For most of the race, the polling average showed a close race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), but the end result proved different. While polling found Cruz extending his small lead within the race’s final stage to an average of 4.4 points, the end result yielded the two-term senator an 8.6 percent win, meaning a polling miss of 4.2 points, well outside the polling margin of error and far beyond the early race pattern.

The most accurately polled Senate race was Arizona, where the cumulative average found Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leading former news anchor Kari Lake (R) by an average of 2.6 points in the later stages of the race, after he posted larger early advantages. Gallego would win the statewide race by 2.4 percentage points meaning a polling miss of only 0.2 percent.

As in the presidential race, the consistent polling flaw was under-counting the Republican support. In 10 of the 11 monitored races, the Republican candidate exceeded the suggested polling support figure. The only contest where the Republican candidate failed to top the polling average came in Montana where challenger Tim Sheehy (R) defeated Sen. Jon Tester (D) by 7.1 percentage points. The polling average in the race’s latter stage was 7.6 percent.

The polling community correctly projected the Senate winner in 10 of the 11 monitored races. The only contender to defy the polling projections was Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick (R) who many media outlets have projected as a winner opposite Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The race is in a recount where McCormick maintains a lead of better than 25,000 votes.

For the most part, the repeated polling criticism is exaggerated. Overall, the pollsters had a relatively good year, and did correctly see the Trump polling trend in that he won the battleground states and the national popular vote by largely predicted close margins. The consistent underestimating of Republican support, however, does indicate future methodology correction is warranted.

Kamala for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 18, 2024

Governor

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rumors abound in California that key Kamala Harris supporters will attempt to convince her to run for governor in 2026 when the seat next comes open. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a Harris political ally, is ineligible to seek a third term.

The idea is reminiscent of Richard Nixon’s move in 1962 after he lost the 1960 presidential election to John F. Kennedy. Like Harris, Nixon had been elected as a US senator from California and then vice president under Dwight Eisenhower in 1956. Ten years earlier, Nixon was elected to the House of Representatives from a southern California congressional seat.

Nixon’s gubernatorial bid failed. He would lose to then-Gov. Pat Brown, father of future governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown, by a 52-47 percent majority. Though Nixon carried California against Kennedy, he did so with a bare 50.1 – 49.5 percent margin, meaning a spread of 35,623 votes from a total voting universe of 6.48 million ballots. Therefore, the idea of Nixon running for governor after losing the presidential race was iffy at best.

In those days, however, California was a competitive political state, and a Republican candidate could win a statewide election. Ronald Reagan would prove such four years later as he unseated Gov. Brown with a landslide 58-42 percent election that translated into an almost one million vote spread win for the actor turned politician who was of course a future president. In that election, Reagan won 55 of the state’s 58 counties.

The situation for Harris would be different. In the 2024 election, she carried California over President-Elect Trump with a 58.7 – 38.2 percent vote split, far superior to Nixon’s tight victory margin.

In her lone Senate race, 2016, she captured almost 62 percent of the vote against then-Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange County) in a double-Democratic general election. In her two successful races for the job of California Attorney General, Harris recorded victory percentages of 57.5 and 46.0 percent. The latter contest, in 2010, proved only a half-point win for Harris, but that was her first statewide run and California was more politically competitive during that period than today.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) are already announced gubernatorial candidates. Former State Controller Betty Yee (D) and ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D) are also formally announced candidates. In the state’s top-two primary system, it is possible that two Democrats could again advance into the general election.

Therefore, Harris placing first in a multi-candidate jungle primary election would likely be the projected outcome, thus putting her in a strong position for the general election.

As Senator-Elect Adam Schiff (D) surmised in his statewide race, it would be to her benefit to draw a Republican opponent in the general election rather than another accomplished Democrat.

Though Republicans are far from being competitive enough to win a California statewide general election, their cumulative percentages in 2024 were an improvement over recent election cycles. Therefore, there is a greater possibility that the California GOP has enough strength to qualify a well-known general election finalist in 2026 as former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) was able to do in the ’24 open US Senate campaign.

While it remains unclear as to whether Kamala Harris will attempt a political comeback after her decisive national loss, returning to California to compete in an open 2026 governor’s race would be a logical place to make such a move should she so decide.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Election Result Quick Analysis

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024

2024 Election

Heading into the election, it appeared that either party still had the opportunity to score a legislative trifecta. That is winning the presidency, the Senate, and the House. At this point, it appears the Republicans may have achieved such a goal.

Former President Donald Trump has been projected the winner of the 2024 presidential contest by retaining all 25 states that voted for him in both 2016 and 2020, along with Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. He held his weakest state, North Carolina, and then converted Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to, at this writing, record 277 electoral votes, or seven more than necessary to clinch the national election. Still outstanding are Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada, and Trump leads in each.

The Republicans are on the threshold of major gains in the Senate. As predicted, the open West Virginia seat was first to fall to the GOP in the person of Gov. Jim Justice. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) then went down to defeat at the hands of Republican businessman Bernie Moreno, and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) then unseated Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.

The races in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain uncalled. It appears the GOP’s best opportunity now lies in Pennsylvania. The others may swing toward the Democratic candidate. Therefore, the Republicans will at least have a 52-seat majority, and maybe 53.

In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) appears poised to defeat Republican Kari Lake and return retiring Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s seat to the Democratic column. In another competitive race, New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) successfully won a third term, and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks (D) defeated former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) to keep the open Free State Senate seat in the Democratic caucus.

The House majority remains undecided, but Republicans appear to stand a good chance of hanging onto their slim majority. It could be several weeks before we see final totals in the competitive California races that feature four Republicans who sit in Democratic seats fighting for survival. Republican Scott Baugh has a slight lead in the open Orange County district that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for the Senate.

The GOP also has a chance to unseat Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) as Republican Nick Begich III continues to hold a lead hovering around 50 percent. Should he exceed that total, he will avoid the Ranked Choice Voting round. It also appears that Alaskans have repealed the Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system and will return to partisan primaries. Thus, the at-large congressional race is likely the last time we will see the RCV system coming into play. The Alaska seat is the most Republican district in the country that currently elects a Democratic House member.

Depending upon the final outcome of the California and Arizona races, which are likely weeks away from final determination, they will tell us whether the Republicans have held their slim House majority. It appears the party has only suffered a very small number of incumbent defeats, which is the key to maintaining chamber control.

Holding the House would award the Republicans a legislative trifecta and certainly give President-Elect Trump a political mandate. It is also probable that Mr. Trump will carry the national popular vote, and that may be the 2024 election’s biggest surprise.

The Election Keys

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024

2024 Election

When election results are released tonight, several states and districts are worth monitoring because they could provide clues as to what may happen in the rest of the country.

In the presidential race, the first state to follow is North Carolina. With its 16 electoral votes, North Carolina is of critical importance to former President Donald Trump’s campaign. He must win the Tar Heel State. If Vice President Kamala Harris pulls an upset here, the election is effectively over as this would be considered an early round knockout and effectively clinch her national victory.

From Trump’s perspective, the college basketball tournament metaphor is applicable. North Carolina is akin to the first round. Here, Trump must win and advance.

The second key state is Georgia. Similar to North Carolina, a Harris victory here would likely clinch the national election. For Trump, Georgia is analogous to the second round of the basketball tournament. Again, he must win here and advance.

Pennsylvania is the third state to observe. In a way, this is the championship round for Trump. If he wins in North Carolina and Georgia, a Pennsylvania victory would clinch him the national election. Holding North Carolina and converting Georgia and Pennsylvania would allow him to convert the minimum 35 electoral votes he needs to win the national election.

Because he is strong in the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that voted for him twice in past campaigns, the North Carolina-Georgia-Pennsylvania trifecta would clinch 270 electoral votes, and with it, the presidency. For Harris to win, she must take at least one of the three aforementioned states.

The Senate races are currently in flux as more seats are coming into play. Republicans are favored to win the majority, but most of the states will be very close. West Virginia flipping to the Republicans in the person of Gov. Jim Justice will be the first step toward the GOP majority, and this race is virtually a foregone conclusion. A Justice victory here would move the Senate into a 50-50 tie.

The 51st Republican seat is likely to come in Montana where Sen. Jon Tester (D), trailing in virtually every poll from two to eight percentage points, is predicted to lose to retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy. Since Montana is a western state and the results will come late into the evening, another state to watch is Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) appears to be teetering in a state that Trump will carry by 8-10 points.

Other tight Senate races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are worth following. Democrats are still favored to win all, but the Republican candidate in each situation is closing fast.

The Republican majority plans will be upset if GOP senators Deb Fischer (R-NE) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) lose their seats in Nebraska and Texas. A Fischer loss would be particularly devastating because she does not even have a Democratic opponent — rather, a strong Independent, Dan Osborn, with backing now from establishment Democrats has a chance to unseat Sen. Fischer who, heretofore, was expected to glide to re-election.

In the House, while Democrats may be slight favorites to wrest the majority away from Republicans, the margin could be as small as one seat. An early evening seat to watch lies in western Connecticut where District 5 Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) is again in a tight battle versus former state Sen. George Logan (R). Rep. Hayes outlasted Logan by just a percentage point in 2022 and, while she is favored to win again, a Logan upset could be a harbinger of other races to come.

Another Eastern time zone seat to watch is in Union County, New Jersey where freshman Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield) battles former Working Parties Executive Director Sue Altman (D) in the state’s 7th CD. Rep. Kean should win this race, but an Altman upset would definitely signal a good night for Democrats.

Moving to the western part in the Eastern time zone brings us to Michigan. Three toss-up races lie there, two of which are open Democratic seats. Should either Republican Tom Barrett or Paul Junge, or both, win close contests in Districts 7 and 8, another good Republican sign would unfold since both campaigns would be conversion victories.

In Michigan District 10, freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) fights to hold his politically marginal seat against the man he defeated by less than a percentage point in 2022, retired judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga. A Democratic victory here to unseat Rep. James would be a major win for them and be a further signal of an impending new Democratic majority.

As we move further west, counting gets slower and political overtime will loom large. Once we get to the many competitive races on the Pacific coast, it is a virtual certainty that it will be weeks before final numbers are released after signature verification of millions of mail ballots is completed.

Just a few days from the election, it is clear that the House outcome could still favor either party. Even at this late date, both are still in position to score legislative trifectas, where the same party controls the presidency, the Senate, and the House. Or, we could just as easily return to divided government. The most likely House scenario features a multitude of close races with many not being decided until well into November.

Early Voting Wrap Up; Iowa Polling Disparity; Pennsylvania Swinging Towards Trump; Arizona Senate Race Closer Than Expected; Michigan’s Mirror Images; Virginia Outlier Poll

Review data on: TargetSmart

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 4, 2024

Early Voting Wrap Up

Early Gender Numbers: Analysts Missing the Point — News reports are covering the early vote totals and report after report states that women are voting in greater numbers than men. While the raw numbers indicate such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.

When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent while men, compared to their previous performance in a presidential year, are up one-half of a percentage point. This data comes from the Target Early/TargetSmart organization and is based upon more than 55 million early votes cast (at this writing) for the 2024 election.

Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting that appears evident around the country and the decrease detected in urban voter participation.

Closings: Early Voting Ends in All Seven Battlegrounds — All seven battleground states have concluded their early voting periods, and generally the results appear to be better for Republicans than past early voting years. The move to get their voters to the polls early looks to have produced results for the GOP.

The two biggest swings come in North Carolina and Nevada where, for the first time in history, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats. The Arizona vote count looks good for the GOP, too. The Harris campaign likely is pleased with what they see coming from Michigan and especially Wisconsin. Republican early turnout in the Badger State appears particularly low. Georgia and Pennsylvania show mixed patterns, meaning we are likely again headed for very close finishes in both of those states.

The early vote data is collected and reported by the TargetEarly/TargetSmart organization.

President

Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll Sees Lead Change — The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll is always viewed as the gold standard of Iowa prediction models. Their pre-election survey (Oct. 28-31; 808 likely Iowa voters; live interview) finds Vice President Kamala Harris all of a sudden leading Donald Trump, 47-44 percent, largely because of a huge break toward the former among women, particularly those who are aged 65 and older.

Yet, simultaneously, Emerson College released their Iowa survey and finds a much different result, one that is more in line with previous data. The Emerson survey (Nov. 1-2; 800 likely Iowa voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees former President Donald Trump holding a nine point lead, 54-45 percent. This is also closer to Iowa voting history. In 2016, Trump carried the state 51-42%, and 53-45% in 2020.

An Iowa win for Harris would turn the electoral map topsy turvy and potentially send the final result on a completely different course. This situation bears watching as we close in on election day. Iowa has six electoral votes.

Pennsylvania: Swinging Towards Trump — A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.

The Echelon Insights survey (Oct. 27-30; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) posts Trump to a 51-46 percent count on the multi-candidate ballot. The poll swinging the most from that result comes from Fox News (Oct. 24-28; 1,057 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) and suggests the two candidates are tied with 48 percent apiece.

Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.

Senate

Arizona: Closer Than Expected — Earlier this week, we covered a new poll regarding the Arizona Senate race that posted former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Senate race. The poll, which forecast Lake holding a one-point edge, came from the Data Orbital firm over the Oct. 26-28 period.

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel released their latest Arizona poll (Oct. 30-31; 1,005 likely Arizona voters) and the conclusion was identical to that of the previous Data Orbital survey, that being Lake holding a small one-point lead.

Two other pollsters were also in the field during the similar period. Another AtlasIntel survey was conducted during the Oct. 25-29 period, and they saw the opposite result: Rep. Gallego leading by the same one-point margin. A fourth poll was also introduced (Noble Predictive Insights; Oct. 28-30; 775 likely Arizona voters) and this ballot test returned Rep. Gallego to a four-point edge.

While all the polls before October gave Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. Though Rep. Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.

Michigan: Mirror Images — Two surveys were released of the Michigan electorate that ended on the same day and produced the same 49-47 percent ballot test conclusion, except each found a different candidate reaching the 49 percent figure. Mitchell Research and Communications, polling for the Michigan News Source (Oct. 28-29; sample size undisclosed) sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) with the slight lead, while AtlasIntel (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) arrived at the opposite conclusion. The latter finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) clinging to the two-point edge.

This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at an opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.

Virginia: Outlier Poll Finds Hung Cao Down 1 — In another strange polling situation, one even the conducting pollsters admit is probably an outlier, Virginia US Senate candidate Hung Cao (R) has pulled into just one point of Sen. Tim Kaine (D) on the Chism Strategies survey (10/28-30; 520 VA likely voters; live interview & text; part of a three state series), 46-45%. No other data shows such a close result.

Two other late October polls (Oct. 25-29), conducted by Roanoke College and the Cygnal polling firm, see double digit leads (11 and 10 points, respectively), which is consistent with projections that Sen. Kaine will easily win re-election. As a point of reference, the Chism poll also sees a close Virginia presidential race. Their ballot test finds Harris and Trump effectively in a tie. This, too is refuted by other pollsters.

House

ME-2: A Huge Polling Range — Continuing the theme of divergent polling, we see another example in northern Maine where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.

Survey USA, conducting a statewide poll (Oct. 24-29; 1,079 likely Maine voters; 484 likely ME-2 voters; online), finds Rep. Golden posting a 53-41 percent lead over Theriault even while Trump leads Harris, 49-44 percent in the same district, a CD that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.

In another survey taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters; live interview & text), actually sees Theriault leading 47-45 percent. Therefore, we see a 14-point polling span between these two studies. With so many surveys being released at the end of the cycle, it is rather routine to see data results producing wildly comparative swings, and the final days of the 2024 election is apparently no exception to such a trend.

Harris Cancels Ad Buy; Lake Closes Gap in Arizona; Lawler Hanging On in NY-17; Cartwright Leading in PA-8

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 31, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ad Transfer: Musk Reports Harris Canceling North Carolina Ads — Elon Musk broke the story on X that Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign is canceling a $1.7 million ad buy in North Carolina. There is a belief that the money will be used for a new ad purchase in Virginia. A recent poll from Quantas Insights (Oct. 22-25; 725 likely Virginia voters) found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by only one percentage point in the Old Dominion. Other polls conducted of the Virginia electorate in the similar time frame, from the Washington Post/George Mason University and Christopher Newport University, see Harris holding much larger leads at six and 11 points, respectively.

The Harris ad move makes sense if the campaign strategists believe there is some weakness in Virginia, and possibly New Hampshire, because Harris winning North Carolina would be a luxury but not a necessity. Winning there would mean an early clinch, but Virginia and New Hampshire are must-wins in order to maintain Harris’s overall winning coalition of states.

Senate

Arizona: Lake Closing the Gap — After a summer of substantially trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona US Senate race, a trio of polls finds former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, see ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The fact that we see three pollsters coming within the polling margin of error, and one that pushes Lake ahead for the first time since the two candidates were even in a National Republican Congressional Committee at the end of July, suggests that this race should draw more attention in the closing week.

House

NY-17: Rep. Lawler Hanging On — Freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), one of the most endangered House incumbents for this election cycle, received good news from a new Emerson College poll (for the Hill Newspaper; Oct. 24-26; 475 likely NY-17 voters; multiple sampling techniques). The ballot test found Rep. Lawler leading former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) by five percentage points, 49-44 percent.

Rep. Lawler unseated then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in 2022 from a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+7. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the sixth most vulnerable district in the House Republican Conference.

PA-8: Rep. Cartwright Leading Again — Six-term Pennsylvania US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton) has held what was transformed into a Republican seat since former President Trump carried a different version of the district back in 2016. A new Noble Predictive Insights survey (Oct. 23-25; 406 likely PA-8 voters; live interview and text) again finds Democratic Rep. Cartwright leading, this time against GOP businessman Rob Bresnahan, 50-43 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 8th District as R+8. The Down Ballot political blog ranks the seat as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. At this point in early voting, more Democrats have cast ballots, which is typical for Pennsylvania. Republicans, however, are up seven points from their 2020 performance in this district and 10 points when compared to 2022. Conversely, Democrats are off almost seven points from 2020 and 11 points from 2022.

Rep. Cartwright has won his last two elections with 52 and 51 percent in 2020 and 2022. The 2024 election will likely end closer than the Noble poll suggests, but Rep. Cartwright still must be considered the favorite to win another term.