Tag Archives: Florida

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Florida Supreme Court Upholds
2026 Redistricting Map

2026 Florida redistricting map (to view interactive version, click on map or go to Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 11, 2026

Redistricting

In what is likely the final major development of the 2026 mid‑decade redistricting cycle, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) announced yesterday that the state Supreme Court has rejected Democrats’ appeal of the newly enacted congressional map. As a result, the new districts will be in place for the 2026 election.

The ruling arrives just in time for candidates to finalize their congressional filings before tomorrow’s deadline. The map is designed to shift four Democratic seats into the Republican column, creating a projected 24R-4D delegation. As with the new plans in Texas and California, it remains to be seen whether the election results will deliver the partisan division that the map architects intended.

According to the statisticians at Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), the four most vulnerable Democratic incumbents are, in order: Rep. Darren Soto (D‑Kissimmee; 9th District), Rep. Kathy Castor (D‑Tampa; 14th District), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D‑Weston; currently in the 25th District but drawn into the new 22nd), and Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D‑Parkland; 23rd District), who will seek re‑election in the new 25th.

DRA’s calculations reflect a comprehensive analysis of each district’s political history, incorporating far more than the most recent presidential results. It remains the only research entity providing this type of information for all 435 congressional districts across the US.

Rep. Soto’s central Florida district undergoes the most dramatic shift: a net partisan change of 38.4 percentage points, moving from 58.8D to 58.9R – a complete reversal from his current 9th District. Rep. Castor’s Tampa-anchored seat shifts 30.9 points toward Republicans, moving from 58.3D to 55.5R.

The new 22nd District, drawn as an open seat, stretches from the Weston area across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Rather than running in this district, which contains her home, Rep. Wasserman Schultz has announced for the new 20th District – a decision generating controversy within Democratic circles.

The 20th is one of four safe Democratic seats under the new map, but it is also nearly 70 percent minority: 42.1 percent Black, 23.3 percent Hispanic, 3.7 percent Asian, and 1.4 percent Native American. Several Black community leaders have voiced concern that Wasserman Schultz’s move could prohibit one of several African American candidates from winning the seat.

The district is open because former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus‑ McCormick (D) was forced to resign while under federal indictment; she is already attempting a political comeback.

A new Listener Group poll (May 29-June 1; 500 likely FL-20 Democratic primary voters; live interview) tests the field and finds Wasserman Schultz leading with 39 percent. Community organizer Elijah Manley follows with 19 percent preference, former Broward County Commissioner and past congressional candidate Dale Holness has 15 percent, and Cherfilus‑McCormick draws just three percent support.

Once respondents are provided additional information, the race tightens. Thus, while Wasserman Schultz begins as the frontrunner, securing the nomination in the Aug. 18 primary is not assured. Her advantage is that Florida does not require a runoff; a simple plurality is sufficient for victory. If she maintains her current vote base, Wasserman Schultz could win with well under 50 percent. In a runoff system, the data suggests she would face a more difficult path.

The new 22nd District is a Republican‑leaning seat (DRA partisan lean: 54.4R-44.9D) and is expected to elect a GOP candidate in an open race. Democrats note that President Biden received more votes than President Trump in the 2020 election when reconfigured under the new boundaries. Republicans counter that Trump rebounded here in 2024 and that GOP voter registration has surged since 2020.

The new 25th District, which hugs the Atlantic coast, stretching from Boca Raton down to Miami Beach, is the least Republican of the targeted districts. Its DRA partisan lean is 52.3R-47.0D, and Moskowitz emphasizes that he already represents roughly half of the constituency. Still, the district shifts 19.5 points toward Republicans compared with his current 23rd District.

The redistricting outcomes in Florida and Virginia – where Democrats lost their plus-4D map in court – clearly improve the House Republican national landscape. Across all newly implemented maps, Republicans appear positioned to gain between five and 12 seats relative to their current 220-215 House margin.

Democrats still have a path to reclaiming the House majority in 2026, but the redistricting battles have unquestionably strengthened Republican prospects.

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

New Florida Map Adopted

Click the map above or here to see an interactive version: Florida redistricting map.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Redistricting

The proposed 2026 Florida congressional map is now law with passage in both the state House of Representatives and Senate along with Gov. Ron DeSantis’ (R) signature, but legal challenges are on the horizon.

Democrats are expected to challenge the newly enacted map in court, focusing not on racial gerrymandering but on certain partisan provision language contained in the voter‑approved redistricting criteria. Although the initiative language includes a ban on overt partisan gerrymandering, the Callais v. Louisiana decision also addressed technical issues that relate to Florida’s initiative, and this could complicate or even undermine the Democrats’ anticipated lawsuit.

Assuming the state Supreme Court upholds the new map – a majority of the justices are DeSantis appointments – the early statistical analysis points to a 24R – 4D partisan split. Such would provide Republicans four more seats compared with their current Sunshine State standing.

Yesterday, several members announced where they intend to run, and the new map creates significant challenges for multiple incumbents. The statisticians at The Down Ballot political blog have released preliminary partisan estimates based on the two most recent presidential elections.

The four Democrats facing unfavorable new districts are: Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston). Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Lois Frankel (D-Ft. Lauderdale), and Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) would receive safe Democratic seats. The vacant 20th District from which former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick recently resigned would also remain strongly Democratic.

Two of the members, Reps. Soto and Castor, announced yesterday that they will run in their newly assigned districts. Rep. Soto previously held a reliably Democratic 9th District, where Kamala Harris defeated President Biden 51.2 to 47.7 percent. President Biden ran even stronger here in 2020, carrying the district 58.2 to 40.8 percent. Under the new plan, however, the 9th District shifts sharply to the right: Donald Trump would have defeated Harris 58.2 to 40.5 percent.

Rep. Castor’s 14th District was even more strongly Democratic than Rep. Soto’s previous CD. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried the 14th CD 55.3 to 45.6 percent. Four years earlier, the Democratic margin was 59.0 to 39.8 percent. Under the new DeSantis plan, the 14th District — still anchored in Tampa but containing less of the city — would have shifted to the right, with Trump winning 54.5 to 44.0 percent.

Making early comments about where she might run, Rep. Frankel remained uncommitted about seeking re-election in the new 23rd CD that contains part of Ft. Lauderdale and the Democratic stronghold of West Palm Beach.

Rep. Moskowitz indicated that he will likely run in the new 25th District, an Atlantic coastal seat where he already represents roughly half of the constituency. The updated partisan numbers, however, show that President Trump would have carried the new 25th with a 54.0 to 44.8 percent margin.

The Democrat in the most difficult position is Rep. Wasserman Schultz. Unless she chooses to challenge another Democrat in a paired‑incumbent race, she would likely run in the new 22nd District, which begins in the Fort Lauderdale area and stretches west across the peninsula to the Gulf of America. Based on Donald Trump’s would‑be performance, the partisan split in this district is calculated at 54.6 to 44.1 percent.

Several Republicans would also find themselves in new political circumstances. Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R‑Clearwater) would still hold a strongly Republican district, but its Trump performance of 56.9 to 41.6 percent is noticeably weaker than that of his previous 12th District. The major change is drawing the 12th into Tampa to absorb some Democratic voters that Rep. Castor previously represented.

In the Tampa area, Rep. Laurel Lee (R‑Tampa) would receive a much more Republican‑leaning district, but her new territory north of Tampa could leave her vulnerable in a GOP primary. Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion has already announced that he will challenge her.

In the Daytona area, Rep. Cory Mills (R‑New Smyrna Beach), who is facing multiple sexual‑harassment accusations, would see his 7th District remain almost entirely unchanged. His biggest obstacle to re‑election is likely to come from the Republican primary.

The new Florida map will play a major role in determining which party ultimately controls the House in the upcoming midterm elections. Attention will soon shift to the state Supreme Court and its forthcoming decision on what is expected to be a highly technical legal challenge.

SCOTUS Decides Louisiana Case;
Florida Rep. Webster to Retire

2024 Louisiana Congressional Districts map (view interactive version on Dave’s Redistricting App)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Louisiana

The US Supreme Court, months after initially hearing the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case, released its ruling yesterday.

In authoring the Court’s opinion, Associate Justice Samuel Alito outlined the reasons the justices upheld the three‑judge panel’s ruling in Callais v. Louisiana, which found that the congressional map used before the 2024 election constituted a racial gerrymander.

The ruling is viewed as favorable to Republicans and will almost certainly require Louisiana’s congressional map to be redrawn before the 2026 statewide primary on May 16. It is possible that the legislature could simply revert to the 2021 map that was in place for the 2022 election.

Activists in several states are already urging their legislators to redraw congressional maps. Such is the case in Georgia, Mississippi (for their state Supreme Court districts), and potentially South Carolina. The Florida legislature is now likely to pass the map that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) produced, which was drawn in anticipation of a favorable Republican Louisiana ruling.

In the Callais decision, Justice Alito outlined the parameters of the Voting Rights Act. He wrote, “Because the Voting Rights Act did not require Louisiana to create an additional majority-minority district, no compelling interest justified the State’s use of race in creating SB8, and that map is an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.”

He further explained when race can be used as a factor in drawing legislative district boundaries. From later in the ruling, Justice Alito stated, “The Court’s precedents have identified “only two compelling interests” that can satisfy strict scrutiny: avoiding imminent and serious risks to human safety in prisons,” and “remediating specific, identified instances of past discrimination that violated the Constitution or a statute.”

Further explaining, the Justice wrote, “Properly understood, §2 thus does not intrude on States’ prerogative to draw districts based on nonracial factors, including to achieve partisan advantage. In short, §2 imposes liability only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race. Not only does this interpretation follow from the plain text of §2, but it is consistent with the limited authority that the Fifteenth Amendment confers.”

It remains to be seen which states besides Louisiana will redraw their maps before the 2026 election. Alabama, where officials were also required to add another minority district ahead of the 2024 election, is one possibility. With primary elections already underway in many states, most significant redistricting activity is likely to shift to the 2028 election cycle.

FL-11

Although he would have continued to represent a safely Republican district under Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map, eight-term US Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) announced just after celebrating his 77th birthday that he will not seek re-election later this year.

Rep. Webster had been viewed as a potential retirement candidate throughout this election cycle. Under the DeSantis map, his central Florida 11th District is rated as safely Republican. In the proposed FL‑11, President Trump would have recorded a 57.2 to 41.5 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris.

Dan Webster was first elected to the Florida House of Representatives in 1980 and later became the chamber’s first Republican Speaker since Reconstruction. He was elected to the state Senate in 1998, where he went on to serve as Majority Leader.

The number of open House seats has now grown to 64. Thirty-eight of these seats are currently Republican held with 21 from the Democratic column. Five additional open districts have been created as a result of redistricting maps in California, Texas, and Utah.

Of the 64 seats in the open category, only 28 involve members retiring from elective office. This group includes two lawmakers who were paired in a new redistricting map with another incumbent of his own party, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) and Burgess Owens (R-UT).

Twenty-seven Representatives are running for a different office, three have resigned their seats, two districts are open due to the incumbent’s death, and one has already been defeated in his primary election.

Once the Florida redistricting process is resolved, a crowded Republican field is expected to emerge for the now‑open 11th District. The Sunshine State candidate‑filing deadline for US House races is June 12, and the state’s primary is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Redistricting News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Redistricting

As the election cycle progresses and a new round of candidate filing deadlines are fast approaching, redistricting action is coming quickly.

Yesterday, the Virginia Supreme Court heard arguments on the Democratic Party’s motion to lift the lower court’s stay that had invalidated the new map. The original ruling, issued before the statewide referendum election, stemmed from the judge’s finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing the measure onto the ballot.

After the circuit judge’s ruling, the Democrats appealed to the state Supreme Court. The justices have not yet heard the appeal but allowed the referendum to proceed. On April 21, voters approved the new congressional map by a narrower than expected 51.7 to 48.3 percent margin. With the candidate‑filing deadline approaching on May 26, the Democratic Party moved to ensure that the 2026 elections can proceed under the newly adopted map.

In a rather surprising ruling, the state Supreme Court yesterday denied the motion. As a result, the 2021 congressional map remains in effect until the justices hear the Democratic Party’s appeal of the lower court ruling and issue a final decision.

More details are emerging about the newly proposed Florida congressional map, which is expected to come before the state House of Representatives this week. If approved, the plan would then advance to the state Senate.

The new plan is being characterized as one that would deliver 24 of Florida’s 28 congressional districts to Republicans.

Researchers at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics have conducted a preliminary review of the proposed districts and suggest that several of the new seats may be more competitive than Republicans are indicating.

The Center’s report specifically identifies new Districts 14 (Rep. Kathy Castor-D; Tampa), 22 (likely a new open seat), and 25 (also likely an open seat) as competitive contests that could present opportunities for Democratic holds.

While the weakest of these districts is the new 25th, which would have given President Trump a 54-45 percent victory in 2024, the Center compares the totals to the 2020 election when President Trump faced Joe Biden. In that scenario, the Center’s analysis shows new District 14 narrowing to a two‑point Trump advantage, while Biden would have carried District 22 by 2.9 points and District 25 by a wider 5.1‑point margin.

While competitive races in these districts are certainly possible, particularly in the 14th, which features a long‑serving incumbent (Rep. Castor was first elected in 2006), the two presidential elections are not equally comparable in terms of political significance.

Florida has undergone drastic political change since 2020, largely to the benefit of Republicans. In 2020, Democrats held a 36.5 to 35.8 percent advantage in party registration, amounting to just under 100,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Today, Republicans hold a 41.3 to 35.8 percent advantage, giving the party a registration lead of roughly 1.5 million voters. Measured as a percentage shift over the past five years, this represents a net Republican gain of nearly 12 points.

In 2020, President Trump carried Florida with just a 51.2 – 47.9 percent victory margin. In 2024, his margin increased to 56.1 to 43.0 percent. When these statewide shifts are considered alongside the substantial changes in voter registration and the per‑district analysis, the 2024 projections are likely a more accurate reflection of the current electorate than the numbers derived from the 2020 results.

Expect additional redistricting developments soon, particularly the US Supreme Court’s decision in Callais v. Louisiana, which many observers anticipate will be a significant ruling on racial gerrymandering.

Texas Redistricting Ruling; Fla. Gov. DeSantis Releases Redistricting Map

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Texas Redistricting

In a move that could signal how it may approach the Louisiana racial gerrymandering dispute, the US Supreme Court yesterday took a very unusual step regarding the Texas redistricting appeal.

A majority of the justices voted to issue a reverse summary judgment in the challenge to Texas’s new congressional map. The move effectively overturned the lower court’s ruling without requiring additional briefing or oral argument.

Yesterday’s court action is exceedingly rare, and its use adds weight to predictions that the forthcoming Louisiana decision could become a defining ruling on racial gerrymandering. The Court is scheduled to release additional opinions tomorrow, and it remains unclear whether Callais v. Louisiana will finally be among the cases issued this week.

For more detailed information, visit the Florida Senate redistricting map.

Florida Redistricting

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) yesterday released a new congressional map that he is urging the legislature to approve during the special session scheduled to begin today.

The Governor issued a statement saying that redistricting is necessary because “Florida got shortchanged in the 2020 Census, and we’ve been fighting for fair representation ever since. Our population has since grown dramatically, and we have moved from a Democrat majority to a 1.5 million [person] Republican advantage. Drawing maps based on race, which is reflected in our current congressional districts, is unconstitutional and should be prohibited.”

Widely viewed as a response to the 10D–1R Virginia map approved by voters last week, the Governor unveiled a Florida proposal that would likely shift the delegation from a 20-8 Republican advantage to a 24-4 advantage.

The current Florida map features 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats. It appears that at least three current Democratic House members — Reps. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) — would likely face significantly more difficult paths for re-election and enter the general election as underdogs.

In a new 23rd District lying in the Ft. Lauderdale area, it is probable that Reps. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland) and Lois Frankel (D-West Palm Beach) would be paired in a Democratic primary, with the winner favored to hold the seat in the general election.

The sitting Democrats who would have a district on the new map are: Reps. Maxwell Frost (D-Orlando), Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) and the open 20th District.

In the latter seat, former Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Miramar), who resigned from the House while facing federal indictments in addition to violating 25 House ethics provisions, would see an open Democratic seat in her area. Although she has stepped down from Congress, Cherfilus‑ McCormick has not closed her campaign account and indicated that she intends to run for the new seat.

The new 20th District is one she would likely have been able to hold were it not for her legal troubles. Six other Democrats had already entered the race, and the new configuration suggests that all of them will remain in the contest. Although she is running again, Cherfilus‑McCormick’s prospects for returning to Congress appear slim at best.

The South Florida portion of the map appears to create two new open Republican seats: one coastal district (FL‑25) between Fort Lauderdale and Miami, and another to the west (FL‑22) that stretches across the peninsula to the Gulf Coast.

Political data for the proposed districts has not yet been released or analyzed, so decisions about where certain members ultimately run could shift as more information becomes available. For example, because many of the South Florida districts are expected to lean only slightly Republican, Reps. Wasserman Schultz and Moskowitz may have multiple potential districts to consider if they choose to remain in Congress, though none would offer a particularly favorable political landscape.

There are still many unanswered questions surrounding the proposed Florida map, but the DeSantis plan is currently the most fully developed option on the Republican side. It remains to be seen if the Governor can capture majority support in each legislative chamber. If he does, the plan would significantly strengthen Republican prospects for retaining their narrow US House majority in the 2026 election.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

Senate Happenings: Florida, Illinois

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 20, 2025

Senate

Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.

Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), who labeled himself “a badass teacher,” and subsequently lost to freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43 percent in the Florida district’s April 1 special election, now returns to elective politics. Late this week, Weil announced that he will enter the Senate race with the goal of opposing appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who will be on the federal ballot for the first time.

Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections, the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.

In the end, Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44 percent of the vote against Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43 percent in voter support in his special election campaign effort.

According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.

It remains to be seen if Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally, and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.

Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.

Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date.

Illinois

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Matteson/Chicago).

With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, next year’s March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (April 24-28; 800 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11 percent margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.

The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.

Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.

With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle.