Tag Archives: Rep. Ilhan Omar

Harris Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick; Omar Has Huge Lead in MN-5; GOP Voter Registration Jump in Arizona

Click on image above or here to go to: Bloomberg News story.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 30, 2024

President

Vice President Harris: Reportedly Narrowing VP Pick — Bloomberg News is reporting that presumptive presidential nominee Kamala Harris has narrowed her selection for the 2nd slot on the national Democratic ticket to three individuals (see above): Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Gov. Josh Shapiro (PA) and Gov. Tim Walz (MN). If the report is valid, it means that Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and governors J.B. Pritzker (IL), Andy Beshear (KY), and Roy Cooper (NC) have been eliminated from consideration.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar’s Huge Lead — It has been a bit surprising that the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) Super PAC affiliate, the United Democracy Project, which has spent millions of dollars targeting anti-Israel Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO), has spent nothing against one of their most vociferous congressional adversaries, Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

A new poll suggests why there has been so little outside involvement against Rep. Omar or for her top Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. This looked like a competitive challenge at the outset considering that Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory margin in 2022, but the current data suggests otherwise.

According to Rep. Omar’s internal poll from Lake Research Partners (July 17-21; 400 likely MN-5 Democratic primary voters; live interview) the ballot test projects the congresswoman to be holding a 60-33 percent lead over Samuels. The fact that the incumbent’s lead is so large dissuades opposition involvement since the die appears already cast for the Aug. 13 primary election.

States

Arizona: Latest Registration Figures Reveal GOP Jump — Arizona Republicans have consistently out-registered Democrats over the years, but the latest released pre-primary figures find the GOP posting its strongest margin of the last three election cycles. Arizona also features a large Independent and minor parties’ registration category. It is this latter group that now makes the state so politically close.

According to the Secretary of State’s report, Republicans now claim 35.4 percent of the Arizona registered voters, which is 6.3 points higher than the Democrats’ 29.1 percent figure. The Independent/Other category has the second highest contingent, at 33.9 percent. The R to D split is almost three full percentage points higher when compared to the 2020 election when President Joe Biden scratched out a tight 49.4 – 49.1 percent victory over then-President Donald Trump.

The new registration data gives credence to the Real Clear Politics calculated 6.4 percent average that former President Trump holds over Vice President Harris. The figure is derived from the three cumulative July Grand Canyon State surveys. Arizona continues as one of the most important swing domains in this election cycle.

AIPAC’s Next Challenges

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 28, 2024

Campaign Finance

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) is getting most of the credit for Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-NY) Democratic primary defeat earlier in the week, and deservedly so considering their associated entity’s huge expenditures, but will their next endeavors end in a similar manner?

Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) at Saturday’s Rally in the Bronx.

Rep. Bowman went down to a crushing 58-42 percent defeat at the hands of Westchester County Executive George Latimer on Tuesday night with the aid of almost $20 million being spent for Latimer and against Bowman in the congressional primary. Most of this outside money came from The United Democracy Project, a Super PAC associated with AIPAC.

Yet, some key facets of this race will not be present in campaigns against a pair of the group’s other important targets. Earlier in the year, when the anti-Israel protests began in earnest the AIPAC leadership pledged to spend $100 million to defeat some of Israel’s strongest adversaries in Congress. With Rep. Bowman successfully unseated, two others, Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Ilhan Omar (D-MN), appear to be next in line and though every political race is different, similarities to Bowman’s pre-primary position are relatively strong.

To begin, Rep. Bowman, considering some of his other antics and inflammatory statements uttered during his tenure in the House, made him vulnerable beyond his stance against Israel. Therefore, he was a potential incumbent political casualty even before AIPAC entered the scene. The same is true for Reps. Bush and Omar.

Conversely, Bowman’s opponent is an accomplished politician and much more established than either of the men that Bush and Omar are facing.

As Westchester County Executive, Latimer already represented 91 percent of the 16th District constituency. In the area that he and Bowman had in common, Latimer’s percentage rose to 63.4 percent. In the Bronx borough, where Latimer was not a familiar figure, Rep. Bowman led with 83.6 percent support. The latter domain, however, accounted for less than 10 percent of the overall vote. Prior to his service as Westchester County executive, Latimer was an elected member of the New York Senate and Assembly.

While Reps. Bush and Omar’s opponents are certainly credible, their political resumes are not as formidable as Latimer in New York.

Post-election reports are surfacing through social media that Rep. Bowman was already trailing by 17 points prior to The United Democracy Project even beginning its media blitz. The reports suggested that the ads did not begin until April 3, yet a Mellman Group poll of the NY-16 Democratic constituency conducted over the March 26-30 period already found Rep. Bowman trailing, 52-35 percent.

Another poll, however, from Upswing Research and executed during the March 5-10 period found the race locked in a dead heat, with Rep. Bowman actually leading by a percentage point, 43-42 percent. While the final results suggest the Mellman poll is the more accurate of these two, it may or may not be the case that the incumbent was already trailing badly when the bulk of the media blitz targeting him began.

Additionally, this race is fully contained within the exorbitantly expensive New York City media market, thus one explanation for the huge amount of money being spent. The dollar expenditure in the other districts is unlikely to be as large.

Finally, the United Democracy Project did not fully message the Israel issue. Rather, the bulk of the advertising attacked Rep. Bowman for not supporting President Joe Biden’s legislative initiatives such as his opposition to the infrastructure spending legislation that was passed into law, thus this contest was decided upon other points not directly related to his anti-Israel stance. It is likely that the outside ad campaign will adopt different themes against Bush and Omar.

For her part, Rep. Bush is already issuing statements condemning “AIPAC and their allies” for spending “waves of money” to unseat Bowman. She is clearly trying to create a negative image of the organization since her standing at the commensurate point is similar to where Rep. Bowman stood.

Rep. Bush is under an ethics investigation for misuse of government funds and already finds herself in a tight race with her chief primary opponent, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell. A Mellman Group poll taken recently (June 18-22; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) found the Aug. 6 primary race locked in a dead heat. The ballot test projected Bell to be leading Rep. Bush by just a single point, 43-42 percent.

Since the AIPAC leadership was good to its word about coming in hard against major anti-Israel members of Congress in Bowman’s case, they will also come into St. Louis in an attempt to even the score with Rep. Bush. It is unlikely they will spend as much as they did in New York, but it is probable the organization will again be a major part of this particular primary campaign in its closing weeks.

The same can be said for Rep. Omar in Minneapolis. Two years ago, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels held the congresswoman to a scant 50-48 percent victory. This time, Samuels has more credibility as a congressional challenger, scored recent endorsements from major labor unions, and now will likely see major help coming from the AIPAC sources as the candidates battle toward the Aug. 13 Minnesota primary.

There can be no denying that the AIPAC forces were a major component of the coalition that defeated Rep. Bowman. Whether they can help achieve the equivalent result against Reps. Bush and Omar in August remains to be seen.

Today’s Primaries; Libertarians Reject National Nominee; Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Primaries

Virginia Republican Congressman Bob Good (R-Lynchburg)

Today’s Vote: Georgia, Oklahoma, Virginia — Another round of primary elections is on tap today, with voters in Oklahoma and Virginia casting ballots in their full primaries, while certain Georgia districts will host runoff elections. The races of most interest come in central Virginia, where two-term Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) faces a serious opponent in state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin Sabot). This is a contest that could feature the first challenger victory of the primary season. At this point in contested House Republican and Democratic primaries, the incumbents are 11-0.

To complicate matters for Rep. Good, this is the first time he has faced a primary election. His two previous nominations were won through district conventions. Additionally, former President Donald Trump has endorsed McGuire, and ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy has raised substantial money toward a Super PAC that is attempting to unseat Good. The congressman was one of the leaders of the movement that ousted McCarthy from the Speakership.

House Appropriations Committee chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is facing a multi-million dollar campaign coming from businessman Paul Bondar. Both men are heavily attacking each other; Rep. Cole hitting Bondar as a recent transplant from Texas, and the challenger attacking the incumbent as being out of touch with the district. Rep. Cole still favored for renomination.

The major runoff to be decided comes in western Georgia, where former Trump White House aide Brian Jack and state Sen. Mike Dugan (R-Carrollton) battle each other. Jack came close to winning the nomination outright in May but fell just short. Therefore, he appears to be a clear favorite heading into the secondary election.

President

Colorado: Libertarians Reject National Nominee — The Colorado Libertarian Party leadership, saying that the national party’s nominee, Chase Oliver, is “too moderate,” announced yesterday that they will not slate him for the general election. Instead, the state party leaders will inform the Colorado secretary of state as to whom the local organization will choose prior to the ballot certification deadline.

The Libertarian Party is the only minor party where in 2020 their nominee, Jo Jorgensen, had 50-state ballot access; 48 under the party name and in two, Alabama and Tennessee, where she appeared on the Independent line. Along with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the non-Democratic and Republican finalists will likely be significant in the swing states where they appear on the ballot. In Colorado, the Libertarian line will only make a minor difference as President Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to win the state.

House

MN-5: Two Major Unions Endorse Rep. Omar’s Opponent — While three-term Minnesota US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) just launched a television ad talking about how proud she is to represent her constituents, two important labor unions endorsed her Democratic primary opponent, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels. The United Steelworkers and the International Union of Operating Engineers both issued endorsements for Samuels, the campaign announced yesterday. In 2022, Samuels held Rep. Omar to a 50-48 percent renomination victory. The two again do battle in the state’s Aug. 13 primary election.

Rep. Omar is a member of the far left “Squad” within the House, and two other of its members, Reps. Cori Bush (D-MO) and Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), also face strong Democratic primary challenges in the coming weeks.

AIPAC’s $100 Million

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 24, 2023

House

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) again faces a serious primary challenge. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The “Squad”: Fundraising to Defeat — Recently, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), in response to the self-identified congressional “Squad’s” ardently pro-Palestinian position and their refusal to condemn the Hamas attacks on Israel, has pledged a cumulative $100 million dollars in an effort to defeat those members at the polls.

The “Squad,” identified as Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Cori Bush (D-MO), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), and Summer Lee (D-PA), are the members who’ve drawn AIPAC’s ire. If split evenly, the $100 million commitment translates into more than $14 million per district — a substantial amount of money.

Each of these members represent safe Democratic seats, so if they are to be defeated it will be in their respective Democratic primaries. All of their districts, with the exception of Rep. Lee’s Pennsylvania seat, fall into the range of D+40 to D+73 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. Rep. Lee’s Pittsburgh-anchored district is rated D+15. President Joe Biden carried the six most Democratic of these seats with percentages ranging from 71 thru 86. The president recorded a 59-39 percent victory margin in Rep. Lee’s CD.

Since AIPAC wants to spend this kind of money, they will have no choice but to operate through a Super PAC and operate independently with no coordination or communication between their organization and any candidate. In addition to running an attack campaign against their targets, they also could promote positive messages for Squad opponents so long as they don’t coordinate with the campaign.

The fundamental question, however, is whether any of these members are vulnerable to a primary challenge, even with opponents who will have substantial resource backing. It appears some could be on the precipice of losing.

Minnesota’s Rep. Omar is the most notable and seemingly the most vulnerable of the Squad members. In 2022, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels held the congresswoman to only a 50.3 – 48.2 percent win. In that election, Rep. Omar outspent Samuels, $3.22 million to $1.38 million. In the coming 2024 August primary, considering AIPAC’s large investment, the resource balance will likely turn heavily against the incumbent.

Rep. Bush also has a credible opponent. In the past month, former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell left the Senate race and declared himself a Democratic primary challenger to Bush. In 2022, Rep. Bush faced four Democratic opponents, including state Sen. Steve Roberts (D-St. Louis) but easily won renomination with 69.5 percent of the vote. Both she and Sen. Roberts spent just under $500,000 on their races. Here, such a large influx of campaign resources against Rep. Bush would significantly help Bell.

Rep. Bowman is the other Squad member who currently faces a serious primary challenge. Westchester County Executive George Latimer is indicating that he will enter the congressional primary. In his current position, Latimer represents almost 91 percent of the 16th Congressional District constituency. Prior to winning his countywide office, Latimer served in the New York Senate and Assembly. Therefore, he is no stranger to running for public office and winning his elections.

Bowman came to office in 2020, defeating veteran Congressman Eliot Engel in the Democratic primary. Now, particularly with serious resources coming into the district, Rep. Bowman could quickly find himself in a similar position as did then-Rep. Engel.

Rep. Lee also may be in trouble for renomination. She won her 2022 Democratic primary with only a 41.9 – 41.0 percent margin over attorney Steve Irwin. In the general election, she under-performed the district’s vote history in attaining only 56.2 percent of the vote. Some of that could be attributed to her Republican opponent’s name, Mike Doyle. The Democratic Mike Doyle had represented the congressional district for the previous 28 years.

Currently, Edgewood Borough Councilwoman Bhavini Patel is the only announced Democratic candidate against Rep. Lee. She entered the open race in 2022 but withdrew before candidate filing expired. Running next year with plentiful anti-Lee resources flowing into the district could make Patel a serious candidate. PA-12 is the only district of these seven that might be competitive in the general election, though a Republican winning here would still be a long shot. Republican Mike Doyle is a possibility to return.

At this time, Reps. Ocasio-Cortez, Pressley, and Tlaib, have no declared Democratic opposition, but the AIPAC announcement could stir certain individuals in these districts toward action. The most difficult of these members to defeat would likely be Rep. Ocasio-Cortez. A prodigious fundraiser (Sept. 30 cash-on-hand disclosure: $5.4 million), she would likely be able to match the AIPAC dollar effort and whatever money an opponent could directly raise.

Considering the AIPAC effort, these seven members are guaranteed to face an onslaught of activity, which certainly adds more intrigue into this highly combative election cycle.

Sen. Tim Scott Out; Primary Rematch Announced in Rep. Omar’s District; Candidate Again Switches Districts; Two Texas Reps Out; Spanberger to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023

President

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.

The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race.

House

MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2 percent renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, has officially announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or if they will give Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.

Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither had raised even $55,000 through the Sept. 30 campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, 2024.

NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts — Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Walker abandoned his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms.

TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election — As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress.

Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor — Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced that she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports more than $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferable to a Virginia state campaign.

Without Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

Rep. Ilhan Omar Again Faces Serious Primary Challenge; Former Navajo Nation President Declares in Arizona; MI-10 Field Grows; North Carolina Redistricting Positioning

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 18, 2023

House

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) again faces a serious primary challenge. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

MN-5: Rep. Omar Opponent to Return –– Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a tight 50-48 percent Democratic primary victory in 2022, announced he will return for a re-match next year. Expect this to again become a serious primary challenge. Already in the race are attorney Sarah Gad and businessman Tim Peterson, but Samuels is the key challenger. This seat will be decided in the Democratic primary scheduled for Aug. 13. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates MN-5 as D+57.

AZ-2: Former Navajo Nation President Declares for House Seat — Jonathan Nez (D), the former Navajo Nation president who lost his re-election bid in 2022, is now looking to challenge for a congressional seat. He is organizing to oppose freshman Rep. Eli Crane (R-Oro Valley), one of the eight Republican members who voted to oust Speaker Kevin McCarthy. In 2022, Crane unseated Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D-Sedona) in a northern Arizona district that now significantly favors the Republicans. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+15. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean as 53.4R – 44.4D.

MI-10: Dem Challenger Field Grows Larger — Surgeon and former congressional candidate Anil Kumar (D) declared his candidacy in the Detroit suburban 10th Congressional District hoping to oppose freshman Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Kumar is now the seventh Democrat to enter the race. The field includes former prosecutor and judge Carl Marlinga who held James to a tight 48.8 – 48.3 percent victory in the 2022 general election from a district rated as a pure toss-up. We can expect another tough campaign here next year.

NC-1: Rep. Davis Draws New Opponent Before New Maps are Unveiled — Retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout (R), who now runs a successful consulting business and has the ability to self-fund her campaign, surprisingly announced her congressional candidacy just before the new North Carolina redistricting maps are set to be released. Freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District could be one of the seats that dramatically changes under the new plan. Three other Republicans had previously announced. The redistricting map will go a long way toward determining the degree of competitiveness of this and several other seats in the Tar Heel State delegation.

NC-6: Rep. Manning to Possibly Face High Point Mayor — Another potential congressional candidate announced his political intention just before the new North Carolina congressional map will soon be made public. High Point Mayor Jay Wagner (R), looking to take advantage of what is very likely to be a more Republican 6th District is the early favorite to become Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) general election challenger. Also in the race is 2022 GOP challenger Christian Castelli who lost to Rep. Manning 54-45 percent in a result that was a bit closer than most observers expected.

Ramaswamy Rises in Polling; Rep. Slotkin Struggles for Recognition; Rep. Ilhan Omar Draws Opponent; Republican Withdraws in Ohio Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023

President

Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy gets a polling boost. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ramaswamy: Fourth Poll Sees Presidential Candidate Moving to Top Tier — Late last week we reported on three separate Republican primary surveys that placed businessman Vivek Ramaswamy in either third or even second place in national Republican presidential polling and crossing the double digit threshold in each. Now, Emerson College arrives at a similar conclusion to those of Fox News, CBS News, and RMG Research.

Their poll (Aug. 16-17; 1,000 registered US voters; multiple sampling techniques), surveying the self-identified Republicans, shows former President Donald Trump again topping the field with 56 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Ramaswamy each post 10 percent support figures. When compared to Emerson’s June national poll, Gov. DeSantis has dropped 11 percentage points and Ramaswamy has gained eight.

Senate

Michigan: New Poll; Similar Close Result: Regular Michigan media pollster EPIC-MRA went into the field to test a potential open Michigan Senate general election between US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) and former seven-term US Congressman Mike Rogers (R). The poll (Aug. 6-11; 600 likely Michigan voters; live interview) sees Rep. Slotkin leading Rogers, 42-37 percent, which is similar to Emerson College’s Michigan poll (Aug. 1-2; 1,121 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) that found a 44-38 percent ballot test between the pair.

Both candidates are relatively unfamiliar to the statewide respondent sample. A total of 54 percent of poll respondents said they did not recognize Rep. Slotkin, and 72 percent responded in the same way when asked about Rogers. Rogers left office at the beginning of 2015. Slotkin was first elected to the House in 2018.

House

MN-5: Rep. Omar Draws Dem Primary Challenge — Attorney and non-profit organization founder Sarah Gad (D), who overcame opioid addiction to attend law school and pass the bar, becomes the first individual to enter the 2024 Minnesota Democratic primary against controversial three-term Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis).

In 2022, Rep. Omar found herself in a very tight primary campaign, outlasting former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels by just a 50.3 – 48.2 percent margin, a difference of 2,466 votes of 114,567 ballots cast. It’s likely that others, possibly including Samuels, will enter what should be another competitive Democratic primary race.

OH-13: Republican Gilbert Withdraws — Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R), who lost the open Akron anchored 13th Congressional District race to now-freshman Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) last November, announced that she will end her abbreviated 2024 rematch campaign and will instead serve as a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee.

The 13th District, which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+2, is competitive and we can expect Republicans to again put forth a strong challenge effort. Currently in the GOP race are Greg Wheeler, who finished second in the 2022 GOP congressional primary and Hudson City Councilman Chris Banweg. Former Ohio Republican Party chair and 2022 US Senate candidate Jane Timken indicates she is considering entering this contest.