Category Archives: Polling

South Dakota Close

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 19, 2026

Late last week, a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll drew attention for producing a Montana US Senate result that showed Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme. A new Concord survey now reports a similarly competitive finding in the South Dakota Senate race.

The Montana poll, however, was largely debunked due to a sampling universe that skewed Democratic. In response, the Alme campaign released a counter‑survey from Peak Insights (Oct. 7-12; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) showing Alme ahead of Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, 44-29-12 percent. This result aligns with all other polling of the race aside from Concord’s.

In South Dakota, Concord’s numbers fall within the range of other post‑primary surveys. The new study (conducted for Democrats for Education Reform; Oct. 6-8; 400 likely South Dakota voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in a virtual dead heat with Independent Brian Bengs, trailing 42-43 percent.

Within the same sampling universe, Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden leads Democratic former state legislator Dan Ahlers by 10 points, 48-38 percent. Concord also shows Attorney General Marty Jackley running ahead of Democrat Nikki Gronli by just a 44-41 percent spread, also a closer‑than‑expected margin for the open at‑large US House race.

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Montana Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 16, 2026

Senate

A new poll conducted for Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar finds him, for the first time, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme in the open statewide race. While the survey raises methodological questions, its topline results suggest the campaign’s closing weeks could prove more challenging for Republicans than initially expected.

The Concord Public Opinion Partners poll (Oct. 6-8; 405 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text), conducted for the Bodnar campaign, shows the Army Green Beret veteran and former University of Montana president running as an Independent, leading Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin by a 37-35-13-1% margin.

Controversy has surrounded this race since filing time. Sen. Steve Daines (R) initially filed for re‑election, but withdrew as the filing window closed. Standing with him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed his own candidacy just as the period expired. The maneuver prevented any other Republican from entering the race, effectively rigging the primary for Alme. Unsurprisingly, the move angered GOP leaders and a substantial share of Republican base voters.

According to the Bodnar poll, those feelings persist: Alme’s approval rating stands at a dismal 31:48 favorable/unfavorable, compared to Bodnar’s 41:35. President Trump is also significantly underwater at 41:58 in a state he carried three times by landslide margins. Additionally, the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only one point, 37-36 percent.

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Mississippi in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 15, 2026

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

It seems that nearly every day brings a new publicly released poll suggesting that what is typically considered safe Republican terrain may be unexpectedly competitive. Today’s example is Mississippi.

A Wedgewood Polls survey of 511 likely general election voters, conducted online from Oct. 12-14, shows Sen. Cindy Hyde‑Smith (R) leading eastern regional Mississippi District Attorney Scott Colom (D) by just 52–48 percent.

The sample size is small for a statewide poll, and the questionnaire consists of only a single item: the ballot test. While the demographic and political weighting appears consistent with statewide benchmarks, the absence of undecided or refusing respondents strongly suggests that the published results reflect only those who answered the ballot question, not the full set of individuals who opened the email invitation. The pollsters did not disclose the total number of opens, leaving the true response rate unknown.

Because Mississippi is one of only three states, Alabama and New Hampshire being the other two, that do not offer early voting, the race will not provide early vote progression indicators. Therefore, this contest will culminate on Nov. 3.

In recent weeks, both parties and their allied outside groups have invested heavily to supplement candidate spending. According to The Down-Ballot political blog, a Soros‑aligned Super PAC previously spent $1.6 million to boost Colom, Now the American Bridge Super PAC is adding more than $2 million in advertising, alongside roughly $500,000 from other groups. Republican outside organizations have countered with $1.6 million to support Hyde‑Smith.

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The Minnesota Dichotomy

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Click on the map to see an interactive version at
Dave’s Redistricting App.

One of the more intriguing states to watch in the coming election is Minnesota. Though long a reliably Democratic state, arguably the most reliable in the nation having last voted Republican for president in 1972, citizen unrest, a major governmental fraud scandal, and inconsistent polling data suggest the Northland could deliver electoral surprises.

Even the state’s premier politician, Senior Senator and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, who has averaged 60 percent of the vote across her four US Senate victories, is underperforming expectations in her open gubernatorial bid.

While she remains favored to defeat state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) in the Nov. 3 general election, six post‑Aug. 11 primary polls place Klobuchar’s average support at just 48.8 percent, well below her historical statewide performance. Since the primary, her average lead over Demuth is only 8.7 points, and a smaller 6.7 points in the four surveys conducted entirely in September and October.

The Senate race is even more competitive. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster for NBC and ESPN who began her media career covering Minnesota sports, is running a strong campaign against Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

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Democrats Expanding the Map

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 9, 2026

Senate

For Democrats to claim a Senate majority, they must first protect all four of their vulnerable seats and then convert four Republican states. Because most of the competitive states lean strongly Republican, party leaders have focused on creating as many competitive contests as possible.

This cycle, they have persuaded their Senate nominees in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota to withdraw, allowing Democrats to consolidate support behind Independent candidates who, in each case, are former Democrats.

They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, urging Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead to step aside in favor of Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, but she refused. Ironically, Montana is the state where the strategy might have been most effective because the Independent candidate here has the strongest background and campaign ability.

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Point Race: NY-17

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 5, 2026

House

In every election cycle a handful of contests, and often in the Eastern time zone, serve as early indicators of national trends. One such race in 2026 likely sits in Upstate New York.

In the Empire State’s 17th Congressional District, two‑term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) seeks re‑election against former National Security Council official and Army veteran Cait Conley (D). NY‑17 is one of three districts that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential race that sends a Republican to the US House of Representatives.

The fact that Rep. Lawler, a former state Assemblyman and ex‑Republican Party official, has held a Democratic‑leaning seat underscores his strength as a candidate and ability to attract crossover support.

Lawler first gained national attention in 2022 when he unseated Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, then chair of the Democrats’ national campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). He followed that upset with a decisive 52-46 percent victory over former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D) in 2024, in the same election in which Vice President Harris edged Donald Trump 50-49 percent within the district. Four years earlier, Joe Biden defeated President Trump 54-44 percent under slightly different 17th District boundaries.

Rep. Lawler’s durability stems from his aggressive campaign style, strong fundraising (he holds a 4:1 receipts advantage over Conley in 2026), and consistent support from major labor unions. His union backing on economic issues has led to his ranking as one of the top five most bipartisan US House members.

This year, President Trump’s handling of the Iran War is a central issue, and it cuts against Rep. Lawler. Conley’s background with the National Security Council, as a West Point graduate, and serving 16 years as an active duty Army officer, gives her credibility on foreign policy matters.

The district’s political complexion ensures that the outcome here will be close. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the NY-17 partisan lean calculation is 52.9D – 46.1R, which is another obvious disadvantage for the incumbent.

Polling has seesawed between the candidates. Immediately after Conley’s strong late‑June Democratic primary win, FM3 Research (June 27-July 1; 509 likely voters) found her leading Lawler 51-45 percent. A month later, co/efficient (July 20–22; 1,292 likely voters) showed Lawler ahead 50-45 percent.

Two contemporary surveys again split: Emerson College (Sept. 27-29; 400 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) reported Conley with a narrow 48-46 percent edge, while McLaughlin & Associates, polling for the Lawler campaign (Sept. 28-30; 400 likely voters; live interviews), posted the Congressman to a slight 50-47 percent advantage.

The 17th CD serves as the gateway between the New York City metropolitan area and the rural Upstate. It includes Putnam and Rockland counties, about 30 percent of Westchester County’s population, and a small portion of Dutchess County. Though it contains no major city, the district is a collection of small communities – Cortlandt, Carmel, New City, and Peekskill the most recognizable among them – and is home to the US Military Academy at West Point.

NY‑17 should be considered a point race on election night because it is a Democratic‑leaning district represented by a Republican. If Rep. Lawler develops a meaningful lead in early returns, it may signal a stronger‑than‑expected night for Republicans. If Conley prevails, Democrats will have likely opened the gateway to a new House majority.

Utah’s Congressional Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 2, 2026

House

Utah Congressional Districts (Dave’s Redistricing App)

A polling firm has released a full set of surveys in each of Utah’s four newly redrawn congressional districts, and several results suggest closer‑than‑expected contests.

All three Republican incumbents seeking re‑election (a fourth, Rep. Burgess Owens, is retiring) post tighter margins than their voting histories would imply. The lower ballot scores, however, likely stem from each incumbent being forced to represent significantly new territory. With voters less familiar with their new representatives, undecided rates rise accordingly.

Lighthouse Research conducted the polling series for the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah and the Utah Debate Commission. Each survey was fielded between Aug. 31 and Sept. 24 and released on Sept. 29. The four polls sampled between 508 and 515 registered voters per district, using live telephone interviews and online participation.

In the new 1st District, drawn specifically to elect a Salt Lake City Democrat, former Congressman Ben McAdams is a lock to win the general election. He leads Republican Riley Owen by a commanding 63-21 percent.

Creating this district, which contains downtown Salt Lake City along with West Jordan, West Valley City, Millcreek, and Taylorsville, was the focal point of the entire redistricting process and the reason the courts mandated a redraw. Democrats were effectively awarded the seat, giving the party a guaranteed place at the delegation table. The Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) partisan lean of 56.2D – 39.7R is about as Democratic a district as can be reasonably drawn in Utah.

In District 2, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) leads Democrat Peter Crosby by a closer‑than‑expected 39-34 percent in the Lighthouse poll. The new 2nd District lies along the Nevada, Idaho, and Colorado borders and includes North Salt Lake City, Ogden, Logan, Farmington, Brigham City, and Layton. With a DRA partisan lean of 65.6R – 20.1D, the Republican nominee is a prohibitive favorite in any general election.

While most of Rep. Moore’s former 1st District remains within the new 2nd, he loses his northeastern Salt Lake City base, altering the district’s population complexion. His underwhelming 57-43 percent GOP primary win over state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee (R-Clearfield) reflected lingering doubts among Republican voters, but Rep. Moore will easily win in November regardless of this latest poll.

District 3 finds Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) leading Democrat Kent Udell by a comfortable 45-26 percent margin. Rep. Maloy now runs in a district very different from her previous 2nd District seat.

Formerly representing the western sector south of Salt Lake City along the Nevada border all the way to Arizona, her new 3rd District begins east of Salt Lake City, moves south to Arizona, and then cuts west in southern Utah to include her home base in Cedar City and St. George.

With a DRA partisan lean of 70.1R – 24.7D, the new 3rd is the state’s strongest Republican district. The Congresswoman’s toughest race, the GOP primary, which she won 66-34, is already behind her.

Finally, in the new 4th District, freshman Rep. Mike Kennedy (R-Alpine) leads Democrat Jonny Larsen 42-33 percent. Like Rep. Maloy, Kennedy will represent a completely new sector of the state, shifting from east to west.

The new 4th contains most of the Jordan Valley south of Salt Lake City, including Sandy, Lehi, and Pleasant Grove. With a DRA partisan lean of 67.5R – 27.8D, Rep. Kennedy will have little difficulty winning in November while he becomes acquainted with his new constituency.

The bottom line from a national context is the Democrats will gain one seat in the Utah delegation, but the remaining Republicans all control safe political districts for as long as this map stands.

Close Race Watch: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 1, 2026

With the Senate majority up for grabs, the Michigan race continues to be the national point race toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.

If GOP nominee Mike Rogers wins the race, thus converting a Democratic seat to the Republican column, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to capture enough Republican seats elsewhere to overcome their current 53-47 deficit. If Democrat Abdul El Sayed prevails — combined with the North Carolina seat likely flipping to the Democrats — the path toward the net four seat gain needed to eclipse the Republican majority becomes considerably more achievable.

Republican Rogers, a former seven term Congressman who lost the 2024 open Senate race by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast despite being outspent by a 6:1 ratio, returns with a stronger chance to win in 2026.

Democrats nominated former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department Director El Sayed in a much closer primary than polling had projected. Nine pollsters found him leading by an average of 15 points heading into the August primary, yet he won by only one point — and even failed to carry his home county.

In the general election, polling consistently shows a small El Sayed lead, but those numbers may be deceiving. Polling aggregators — 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin — place his cycle to date advantage between 3.0 and 3.2 points. Since the Aug. 4 primary, the average has slipped to 2.8.

For comparison, at the beginning of October during Rogers’ 2024 campaign, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s polling advantage averaged 6.4 points across 35 surveys conducted from the Aug. 6 primary through Oct. 1. In the final month, Rogers nearly erased the entire margin, with Slotkin ultimately winning by just three-tenths of one percentage point.

Therefore, combining Rogers under-polling in the 2024 general election and El-Sayed’s considerable over-polling in the 2026 Democratic primary suggests that we will again see another close finish in this most critical of Senate campaigns.

Resources are not a problem for either nominee. Through the July 15 pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report, El-Sayed had raised $14.5 million while Rogers had attracted $10.8 million. Because El-Sayed had to overcome two strong Democratic opponents, his available assets were less during the last reporting period. He held $2.2 million, most of which would be spent in the final days before the Aug. 4 primary, whereas Rogers had $4.5 million, most of which he held over for the general election.

Outside spending is heavy on both sides, with media reports suggesting roughly $55 million has been spent on Rogers’ behalf and about $45 million aiding El Sayed.

With President Trump’s approval numbers in the lowest range of his career and gas and grocery prices remaining high, the political climate — and Michigan’s statewide voting history — cuts in El Sayed’s favor. Conversely, El Sayed’s weak primary performance relative to his polling, and his failure to carry Wayne County — signaling limited strength within the Black electorate — gives Rogers a legitimate opening to assemble a winning coalition.

As is the case in virtually every competitive race this cycle, the candidate who maximizes turnout within their own party, rather than mastering the difficult task of persuading wavering voters from the other side, will prevail. At this point in the pivotal Michigan Senate race, it remains to be seen who will perform better.

The Texas Under-Poll

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Polling

Possibly the most‑polled 2026 Senate race is found in the Lone Star State of Texas, but the ballot-test numbers obscure a pattern that has been evident since the 2020 election: a persistent and often significant Republican under‑poll.

Since the May 26 Texas Republican runoff election, 30 public polls have been released from 22 different polling entities including professional survey research firms and academic institutions. From these 30 polls, state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) has led in 24 studies with Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ahead in four, while two have produced tied results.

Since Sept. 1, Talarico has led in all but one poll — the Status Intelligence survey (Sept. 22-24; 856 likely voters) showing a 48-48 dead heat. Across the 13 polls released since Sept. 1, Talarico’s average lead is plus-3.3 percentage points. Overlaying the long‑standing Texas polling pattern, however, suggests Paxton may be in better shape than the topline numbers indicate.

From 2020 onward, major polling aggregators — including 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the WH, RealClearPolitics, Silver Bulletin, and the Texas Tribune — have cataloged Texas surveys and calculated average margins for statewide candidates. The results consistently show Republican candidates outperforming their polling averages.

In the 2020 election, President Trump carried Texas by 5.6 percentage points, but the polling average going into the election gave him only a plus-1.2 percent edge over then-former Vice President Joe Biden. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was 4.4.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) was seeking re-election that year against Democrat M.J. Hegar. The aggregate polling average for this race was Cornyn plus-5.8. He was victorious by a 9.6 margin for an under-count just under four percentage points.

In 2022, the only major Texas statewide office on the ballot was the Governor’s election. In that year, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was seeking re-election against former Congressman, 2018 US Senate nominee, and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke (D). Gov. Abbott won the election with a 10.8-point spread but his polling average was only plus-8.9. Therefore, the under-poll figure in this race was a closer but still significant 1.9.

Turning to 2024 where Donald Trump rebounded to win the presidency and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz won a third term we again see the persistent Texas Republican under-poll.

In the presidential campaign, Trump carried the Lone Star State over Kamala Harris with a 13.6 percentage point margin, but his aggregate polling average was a much lesser plus-7.5 heading into the election. Thus, the under-poll factor in this race was 6.1 percentage points.

Sen. Cruz, in his race with then-Congressman Colin Allred (D), saw close polling throughout the campaign. The aggregate polling average for the general election was Cruz plus-4.0, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point margin for an under-poll factor of 4.5 percentage points.

Even in the 2026 Texas Republican primary, we see significant polling misses. While Paxton led the Senate primary election in polling with an aggregate average of plus-4.2, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the initial election with a 1.5-point spread, meaning a 5.7-point Cornyn under-poll.

Though the pollsters correctly projected a Paxton victory in the Republican runoff, their numbers drastically underestimated the final margin. The Paxton aggregate average was plus-10.9 points, but he defeated Sen. Cornyn by 27.6 points, an under-poll figure of 16.7 percentage points.

This cumulative record brings us to the 2026 Senate general election. Across the 30 polls since the runoff, Talarico’s aggregate average lead is plus-3.3 points; since Sept. 1, from 13 polls, his edge has narrowed to plus-1.1 point.

Applying a reasonable under‑poll factor of approximately 3-4 percentage points — consistent with recent statewide races — suggests that Ken Paxton may actually be favorably positioned to score a surprise victory on Nov. 3.

Senate Race Clues – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Today, we conclude our status report on the competitive US Senate races. The seven remaining states, listed in alphabetical order, begin with Montana and end with Texas.

Montana

This is one of the states where Democratic leaders attempted to persuade their Senate nominee to withdraw so the party could consolidate behind a stronger Independent candidate. The strategy succeeded in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but the Montana nominee declined to step aside. Ironically, Montana may be the state where the ploy might have worked.

The Independent candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, is significantly stronger than the Democratic nominee, Alani Bankhead. Because Bankhead refused to withdraw, Republican Kurt Alme is positioned to win — but likely with only plurality support. Alme, a former US Attorney, was handpicked by retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R) as the filing period closed.

The latest poll again reflects the same pattern seen throughout the cycle: Alme 45 percent, Bodnar 26 percent, and Bankhead 19 percent (American Pulse Research & Polling for KULR‑TV Billings; Sept. 19-24; 604 likely voters).

Nebraska

Here, we again see the Democratic nominee withdrawing to give Independent Dan Osborn a clear shot at the Senate seat, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Polling once more shows the race as a dead heat.

In late September and early October of 2024, when Osborn challenged Sen. Deb Fischer (R), five polls were conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 8. Osborn led in all five by an average of 3.4 percentage points. In the end, Sen. Fischer won by just under seven points. Given that history, we are likely to see a similar conclusion in this race.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire campaign is evolving into an interesting race that will likely end in a close finish on Nov. 3. With Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is the new Democratic nominee. The Republican candidate is former Senator and ex-Congressman John E. Sununu.

The Sununu name has long been a fixture in New Hampshire politics, beginning with the nominee’s father, who won three gubernatorial elections, and continuing with his brother, Chris Sununu, who won four consecutive terms as Governor.

Though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is running strongly at the top of the ticket, polling still continues to show Rep. Pappas with a consistent lead in the Senate race. The most recent public survey — Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26–27; 1,082 likely voters; mixed sampling) — finds Pappas running ahead 47-41 percent.

An economic factor working in Pappas’ favor is the recent surge in home heating‑oil prices. The sharp increases are politically damaging for Sununu, particularly because President Trump — who has never carried New Hampshire — is widely blamed for the high costs. In a state heavily dependent on heating oil, this issue could prove decisive.

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and this is clearly the most likely Republican Senate seat to flip to the Democrats. The Democratic nominee, two-term Governor and ex-Attorney General Roy Cooper — who won twice as Governor and four times as Attorney General — is a runaway favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, a first‑time candidate. Since the March 3 primary, 28 polls have been released in this race, and Cooper has led in all 28.

Even Fabrizio Lee & Associates, the polling firm that conducts work for President Trump, and the Democratic firm Impact Research jointly find Cooper ahead 53-42 percent (Sept. 17-20; 1,806 likely voters; online). At this point, it is difficult to see a scenario in which the race turns in Whatley’s favor.

Ohio

The Buckeye State campaign is another where we could see a replay of recent history. Two years ago, then‑Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) led in polling but ultimately lost to newcomer Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points.

This time, former Sen. Brown faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), whom Gov. Mike DeWine (R) tapped to fill J.D. Vance’s seat when he became Vice President. Before winning two terms as lieutenant governor on DeWine’s ticket, Husted captured two statewide victories as Ohio’s Secretary of State.

While it appears today that Brown has a legitimate chance to return to the Senate, it is important to remember that he received 292,441 more votes in 2024 than when he last won in 2018 — and still lost by more than three points. This illustrates how far Ohio has moved rightward during that particular time interval.

Recent reports also indicate that although Brown has raised substantial money and has $60 million reserved in advertising before Election Day, Husted has $90 million, and a cryptocurrency‑backed outside group has announced an additional $30 million in spending to attack Brown. The final weeks of this race promise to be hard‑fought.

South Carolina

The unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) led to the appointment — and eventual in‑cycle nomination — of his sister, Darline Graham (R), as his replacement.

After fighting through a special primary and a tough runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), Sen. Graham now faces pediatrician Annie Andrews (D), who has dominated the airwaves since the GOP runoff in late August. The Graham campaign and outside Republican groups are preparing to counter with their own media blitz, a shift that will likely turn what appears to be a close contest into one that yields a relatively comfortable Republican win.

Because Darline Graham is largely an untested candidate, the final margin may be closer than what we are accustomed to seeing in the Palmetto State. Still, she is well‑positioned to secure a six‑year term.

Texas

The Lone Star State Senate race is drawing significant political attention, pitting scandal‑tainted Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) – who denied Sen. John Cornyn (R) renomination – against state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), a candidate positioned well to the ideological left in one of the nation’s most reliably Republican states.

Democrats have not won a statewide race here since 1994, and Talarico still faces a difficult challenge even though a plethora of polling consistently shows him holding small leads.

It is important to remember, however, that 2024 polling projected President Trump ahead by roughly six points, yet he won Texas by 13. In the same election, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) was, on average, ahead by about two points in pre‑election polling but ultimately won by eight. Republicans consistently under‑poll in Texas, and the Senate Leadership Fund is now coming to Paxton’s aid with a $100 million spending commitment. Given these dynamics, this race remains very much in play.