Category Archives: Polling

Cornyn vs. Paxton: Dead Heat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 17, 2026

Senate

Two new polls were released in the red-hot Texas US Senate Republican runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton and the results are identical.

Peek Insights conducted its survey for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Super PAC that supports Sen. Cornyn (April 6-9; 800 likely Texas voters), and the co/efficient polling firm, in an independent release (April 11-14; 1,143 likely Texas Republican runoff voters; text and live interview), each find Sen. Cornyn leading AG Paxton by a narrow 44-43 percent.

The surveys provide underlying good news for Sen. Cornyn, however. In the primary, polling consistently found Paxton leading the race. In fact, from the final six publicly released pre-primary polls, the Attorney General led the Senator by an average of seven percentage points. In the actual election, Cornyn topped Paxton by one percentage point, meaning the pollsters underestimated the Senator’s Republican primary position by eight full points.

Therefore, if a similar under-counting of Cornyn’s support is again present in the latest data, it is possible that the Senator’s lead is greater than the one percentage point that both pollsters currently detect.

Included in co/efficient’s data release are their crosstabs, which reveal some interesting points.

While the two candidates are virtually even in support among the likely May 26 runoff voters, the co/efficient segmentation allows us to see where each candidate can target and improve.

Possibly the most surprising finding is that Paxton enjoys a 14-point advantage among self-identified Christians. Considering Paxton’s well-publicized extra-marital affairs that led to his wife filing for divorce, one might expect his personal behavior to be a negative factor within this group.

Therefore, expect the Cornyn campaign to improve the Senator’s standing in this sector as the campaign moves toward culmination in late May.

While most segments show the candidates at parity as does the actual ballot test, the two candidates do enjoy advantages within certain groups pertaining to turnout propensity.

Among the respondents who have voted in four of the last four and three of the last four elections, obviously those with the highest vote propensity, Paxton claims a four-point advantage. Sen. Cornyn posts a three-point edge among those with moderate voting propensity — the two of four categories — while Paxton has the advantage among those most likely not to vote.

The other traditionally high-vote propensity group, those over 65 years of age, favor Cornyn by four points. The Senator also has the edge with those aged 18 through 54, but Paxton posts a double-digit advantage within the 55-64 age sector.

The fact that most of the age segments favor Cornyn by an average of four points, yet Paxton dominates the 55-64 group by 19 points fails to make sense. Therefore, it is probable that his very large margin is an anomaly.

The runoff will prove to be a battle between the urban and rural areas. In the primary election, Cornyn won in the state’s largest metro areas, meaning Harris County (Houston), the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, San Antonio-Austin I-35 corridor, and the populous region along the Mexican border then north to the Corpus Christi area. Paxton was strong throughout the state’s rural areas both in East and West Texas.

While a great deal of money and campaign time will be spent between now and the May 26 election, with heavy emphasis on the early voting process scheduled during the May 18-22 period, the winner will be the candidate whose campaign best energizes its primary election supporters to come back and vote again in the runoff election. Typically, Texas runoff elections turn out about two-thirds of the number who voted in the primary.

May will be an interesting month for vulnerable Republican Senators. Just before the Texas runoff, Louisiana Republican voters will largely determine Sen. Bill Cassidy’s fate in the May 16 partisan primary vote. Some polls show Cassidy trailing both of his Republican challengers — Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and state Treasurer John Fleming. Therefore, the Louisiana and Texas intra-party elections means late May will host a very intriguing political period.

Kentucky Race Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 10, 2026

Senate

For months, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) enjoyed a commanding lead in campaign resources over his principal opponent, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, but not a polling advantage. The situation has now changed.

While Rep. Barr undoubtedly still has more money in his campaign account than does Cameron, he now is forging ahead in polling, too. According to the latest Emerson College survey, conducted for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (March 29-31; 400 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Rep. Barr now leads Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15 percent margin.

While Rep. Barr had placed first in two previous surveys after routinely trailing, both spreads were well within the polling margin of error meaning he was virtually tied with Cameron. The new Emerson College survey is the first publicly released poll to find Rep. Barr inconclusively leading the open Blue Grass State US Senate Republican primary.

According to the Federal Election Commission year-end 2025 filing, Rep. Barr had raised over $6.5 million as compared to Cameron’s $1.6 million. A total of $1.44 million of Barr’s funding came as a transfer from his US House campaign committee. As filing closed at the end of December, Barr reported almost $6.5 million cash-on-hand, while Cameron declared only $630,016 remaining in his campaign account, meaning a 10:1 Barr advantage.

Though no candidate has yet to announce how much their campaigns have raised in the 1st Quarter 2026 (the filing deadline is April 15), it is presumed that the Barr financial lead will have grown larger even though he has been spending a portion of his financial advantage to become better known to Republican primary voters beyond his 6th Congressional District constituency.

The wild card in the race is Morris. A wealthy business owner, Morris has been advertising for months. He is running against the Republican establishment, and repeatedly trashes retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Others, even in Republican primaries, have similarly attacked McConnell, but none were running in Kentucky.

The Morris angle of going after McConnell and tying his opponents to the former Senate Majority Leader is a questionable one when campaigning before a Republican electorate that has routinely strongly supported the seven-term incumbent since he first ran for the Senate in 1984.

Morris has already put $5 million of his own money into his statewide campaign, and Elon Musk is reportedly donating $10 million to a Super PAC supporting Morris’ effort. Therefore, he is a serious third candidate but one who still lags considerably behind the two front runners.

While we are still weeks away from the May 19 primary election, the seeds are set for a Barr victory in the plurality Republican primary, meaning beginning the general election cycle with a clear advantage.

Emerson also tested the Democratic side as part of their March 29-31 statewide poll, surveying 549 likely Democratic primary voters. Here we see former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker topping former US Senate and ex-congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, by a 2:1 clip, translating into a 36-18 percent advantage.

McGrath, a proven strong fundraiser, opposed both Sen. McConnell and Rep. Barr in previous elections and fared poorly despite being at parity with her stronger Republican opponents in campaign resources. Regardless of who comes through the Democratic primary, the general election will prove a major obstacle for the individual irrespective of funding, the political climate’s status at the time of the general election, and trends that might be developing in other states.

At this point, it appears Rep. Barr is now in the best position to win the open GOP Senate nomination and carry that momentum through toward winning the general election.

Cassidy Crushed in New Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 6, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

A new American Pulse Research & Polling survey finds Louisiana GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy trending seriously downward in his fight for renomination.

According to the American Pulse data, Sen. Cassidy would be in danger of not even advancing to a runoff against Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming. In hypothetical runoff pairings, should Sen. Cassidy rebound, he would individually trail both Letlow and Fleming.

The American Pulse poll (March 20-24; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) sees Rep. Letlow topping Fleming and Sen. Cassidy, 31-25-21 percent, respectively. In a potential runoff, Rep. Letlow would lead Fleming, 37-34 percent. With 29 percent of the respondents unsure about this race, such a contest would be rated as too close to call.

Paired with incumbent Cassidy, Rep. Letlow would defeat him by a whopping 30 points according to this respondent sample, 54-24 percent. Fleming fares almost as well against the Senator. In a Fleming-Cassidy runoff, the challenger would lead the incumbent, 49-29 percent.

With a sample size of only 455 individuals for a statewide survey, the error factor would be high because of the small universe. These results, however, are so lopsided that even a wide error margin would still send Cassidy packing particularly because he fares so poorly in a runoff against either opponent.

Sen. Cassidy is facing serious obstacles. Obviously, these polling numbers reveal that the Senator is not popular within the Louisiana conservative vote base. Secondly, his vote to impeach President Trump associated with the January 6th conflict at the Capitol obviously put him at odds with the chief executive, though it is likely that the Senator believed doing so would not cause him future political problems because he obviously believed that Trump would never return to the White House.

As a result, President Trump has already endorsed Rep. Letlow, doing so even before she became an official Senate candidate.

Perhaps Sen. Cassidy’s most serious problem, however, is Louisiana’s new nomination structure for federal offices. Since the 1970s, Louisiana has featured a jungle qualification format for all offices. All candidates are placed on the same ballot in an election concurrent with the regular general election. If a candidate records majority support in the first vote, the individual is elected. If not, the top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation advanced to a post-general election runoff.

Under the new Louisiana primary system effective with the 2026 election, registered party members may only vote in their own party primary. If a person is registered as a “No Party” voter, the individual may choose a primary ballot at the polling place. Once selected, the “No Party” voter can then only participate in an associated runoff of the party in which he or she chose for the regular primary election.

In the jungle system, and particularly because the Democrats are currently very weak in Louisiana, Sen. Cassidy was able to attract a segment of their votes. This made him stronger in seeking re-election. In 2026, Democrats will not be allowed to crossover into the Republican primary, just as Republicans will not be allowed to vote in any 2026 Democratic primary.

Therefore, the new partisan primary system gives the Cassidy challengers a boost because endorsements, such as the one from President Trump, will carry more weight within the conservative Republican vote base without any adverse boomerang effect coming from crossover Democrats.

Added together, these obstacles spell trouble for Sen. Cassidy’s re-election chances as the current polls reflect.

The small sample American Pulse survey may not be completely indicative of where the entire Louisiana Republican electorate stands, but the Senator has fared poorly in other statewide polls, as well.

Looking at the last six publicly released Republican primary studies since Feb. 24, Sen. Cassidy has averaged only 26.7 percent support in the surveys testing a three-way contest among the Senator, Rep. Letlow, and Fleming.

As we head toward a May 16 Louisiana Republican primary election and a potential June 27 GOP runoff, Sen. Cassidy today looks to be the Senate incumbent most likely to fail to qualify for the general election.

The Sour New Hampshire Electorate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 2, 2026

New Hampshire Polling

A local college recently tested the attitudes of New Hampshire voters regarding policy issues and their elected officials and found a seemingly embittered sampling universe.

Yet, even with such pessimistic perceptions, the respondents’ choices pertaining to candidate preference remain surprisingly consistent with past voting patterns. Based upon the issue responses, one would have guessed the Democrats would be opening a wide lead, but such is not the case.

The St. Anselm’s College poll (March 16-18; 1,491 registered New Hampshire voters; online) tested several races on the New Hampshire ballot. In the open US Senate race, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), who has successfully positioned himself as the consensus Democratic candidate, leads former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent clip. If former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown were the Republican nominee, the ballot test would favor Rep. Pappas, 47-38 percent.

Emerson College released their new New Hampshire survey (March 21-23; 1,000 likely New Hampshire general election voters; multiple sampling techniques), conducted after St. Anselm’s, and the pollsters find the Senate general election candidates floating in the same range, but even closer. Looking at the Emerson Senate ballot test results, Pappas holds only a 45-44 percent edge over Sununu, and tops Brown 48-39 percent.

The Emerson Republican primary split (524 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters tested) also projects a stronger Sununu lead against Brown, 48-19 percent. St. Anselm’s saw a 49-28 percent Republican primary split in favor of Sununu.

In the Governor’s race, St. Anselm’s projects incumbent Kelly Ayotte (R), who is seeking a second two-year term this year, to hold a 46-39 percent advantage over former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D). If business owner Jon Kiper were the Democratic nominee, Gov. Ayotte’s lead would be 45-31 percent.

In the 2nd Congressional District campaign, St. Anselm’s tested the rematch between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 GOP nominee Lily Tang Williams. The results found Rep. Goodlander not surprisingly leading the 2026 contest, 48-36 percent. In 2024, Goodlander defeated Williams, 51-45 percent in their open seat contest.

All of the numbers seem consistent with where one would guess the races lie based upon New Hampshire voter history, but understanding that the previous voting trends are in and of themselves somewhat inconsistent.

Republicans haven’t done particularly well in the state during this century – President Trump has lost here three times, for example – but the Sununu family has prospered. Former Gov. Chris Sununu was elected four consecutive times. John E. Sununu, while losing the 2008 Senate race against Jeanne Shaheen in the Obama landslide year, was still elected to the House three times and once to the US Senate.

Therefore, the ballot test numbers appear legitimate, and since both St. Anselm’s and Emerson fall into the same range on the Senate race (Emerson did not test the down ballot races), it is reasonable to surmise that the surveys fall within the proper accuracy realm.

Where the ballot test numbers and the policy responses seem at odds pertain to the entire sample’s tone. All of the questions, from the Trump approval rating (42 percent positive; 58 percent negative) to the Iran War (40 percent approve; 58 percent disapprove), to believing the country is on the wrong track (34 percent right track; 61 percent wrong track), and New Hampshire is also on the wrong track (36 percent right track; 50 percent wrong track) suggest that the electorate is ready to replace incumbent party en masse.

Additionally, none of the tested elected officials even as individuals are positively viewed (Trump: 42:58 positive to negative; VP J.D. Vance: 42:56; Sec of State Marco Rubio: 44:53; Gov. Kelly Ayotte: 48:48; Rep. Chris Pappas: 46:46).

These cumulative responses and the Democrats holding a 49 to 41 percent edge on the congressional ballot test (if the election for Congress were held today, for which candidate would you likely vote: Democratic, Republican, Other, Unsure) would lead an observer to believe that the Democrats have a clear advantage in the state. As you have seen on the individual questions, however, when asked about their specific voter preference, in most cases the Democratic advantage is either narrow or non-existent.

While the current period is clearly a negative one for the Trump Administration and the GOP congressional leadership, and most certainly believed as such in New Hampshire, the representative polling sample fails to indicate a strong commitment to ousting the Republicans.

With still months to go before the general election, Republicans have time to rebound and likely will if things progress positively in Iran and with the national economy. In any event, the closing weeks associated with these midterm elections promise to deliver many more surprises.

Flawed Texas Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 26, 2026

Senate

We are about to see a new wave of Texas Senate polling, but will the accuracy rate be better than what was produced for the March 3 primary election?

A new Change Research survey conducted for the Agave Social Welfare Fund (March 17-19; 807 registered Texas voters; online) finds Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Sen. John Cornyn 42-39 percent in the upcoming May 26 Republican runoff election, but if polling accuracy from the primary is an indicator, this result means little.

As you may remember, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the GOP Senate primary with a 42-41-13 percent spread over Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). According to the last six polls conducted during the final 11 days before the primary, the period covering Feb. 19 through March 2, Paxton was leading the race by seven points according to the mean average figure from the concluding six polls.

The six research firms conducting the surveys were: Peek Insights (Feb. 19-23; 800 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 529 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Victory Phones (Feb. 24-25; 600 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Quantus Insights (Feb. 26-27; 939 likely Texas Republican primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 547 likely Texas Republican primary voters), and YouGov (Feb. 26-March 2; 1,659 likely Texas Republican primary voters).

The one closest from this group conducted their study furthest from the election, Peek Insights, over the Feb. 19-23 period. Peek found a 36-36-14 percent result, which is very close to the actual 42-41-13 percent.

Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24) was furthest away. The firm found Paxton holding a twelve point, 42-30 percent, advantage. In actuality, the Blueprint result was close regarding Paxton’s preference figure, but well away from Cornyn’s support level and margin.

Looking at the aggregate result from the six aforementioned pollsters, the Paxton average lead of seven points means the group cumulatively missed the final tally by eight points when adding Sen. Cornyn’s actual one-point edge.

Therefore, the new Change Research 42-39 percent ballot test conclusion should be viewed with a wary eye since the cumulative primary data, by and large, badly missed the mark.

On the Democratic side in a Senate nomination race where state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) defeated US Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) outright by a 52-46 percent margin, four pollsters conducted surveys prior to the March 3 primary. The results were mixed.

The four research firms conducting surveys during the Feb. 23 – March 2 period were Blueprint Polling (Feb. 23-24; 472 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Public Policy Polling (Feb. 25; 599 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), Emerson College (Feb. 26-27; 850 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and YouGov (Feb.26-March 2; 2,408 likely Texas Democratic primary voters).

Emerson College’s 52-47 percent ballot test result with Talarico leading was virtually right on target. Public Policy Polling was also close with their 48-42 percent split, a six-point spread that proved correct.

The two missed surveys were from Blueprint Polling (52-40 percent; correctly projecting the Talarico percentage but badly underestimating Crockett’s support), and YouGov (53-40 percent, basically the same ballot test result as Blueprint). YouGov, as well, correctly determined the Talarico support level but severely undercounted the Crockett support base.

Because Talarico won the Democratic primary without a runoff means we won’t see any significant general election polling until the electorate breaks closer to the November vote. Some polls will be released, of course, but they are likely to show what early cycle Texas studies commonly project: a tight race. Until October, expect close polling but allow for a wide accuracy curve.

Idaho in Play?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Senate

A new poll suggests that the Idaho Senate race may become the 2026 version of what we saw unfold in Nebraska two years ago.

In the 2024 Cornhusker State US Senate election, Independent Dan Osborn was able to garner the Nebraska Democratic Party’s support, and with strong fundraising catapulted himself into a competitive battle with Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer prevailed with a six-point victory margin, but not without enduring a period where several consecutive public polls staked Osborn to a lead.

Left: Three-term Idaho incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Right: Challenger Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative

A new Public Policy Polling survey (March 16-17; 639 likely 2026 Idaho general election voters; live interview & text) released on Friday found Idaho Independent candidate Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state Representative, posting a three-point ballot test edge (41-38 percent) over three-term incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R). Whether this study is a trend setter or an anomaly remains to be seen, but the data deserves examination.

Apparently, the incumbent’s age will be an issue. Risch will be 83 at the time of the election, and his long career in elective politics appears to be an Achilles talking point as the campaign begins in earnest.

Risch was elected to the US Senate in 2008 after serving for seven months as Governor before returning to his position as Lieutenant Governor. Prior to winning statewide office, Risch served 21 non-consecutive years in the Idaho Senate. Except for a six-year stint when he was out of elective politics, Sen. Risch has been in public office continually since the end of 1974.

In an interview with the Idaho News, a left-leaning website covering Boundary County located at the northernmost point of the Idaho Panhandle that borders Canada, Achilles said, “voters want a Senator who will stand up to monopolies, defend free markets, protect small businesses and producers, safeguard families online, and remain sharp and effective for the full six-year term.”

The Achilles Senate effort should be taken seriously. According to his claims, the Independent candidate has “nearly 1,000 volunteers and attended more than 100 events that cover all 44 Idaho counties.” He also has raised $350,000 for his statewide effort, but that amount compares poorly to Sen. Risch’s reported $3.87 million year end cash-on-hand figure.

On the Senator’s side is his campaign history. Counting his two bids for Lieutenant Governor and three US Senate contests, Risch has won every statewide race in which he has participated. In those five campaigns beginning in 2002, he has averaged an even 60.0 percent of the vote and has a strong base of support within the Republican Party.

Candidate filing closed March 6, and Sen. Risch drew only three minor Republican primary opponents: data engineer Joe Evans, construction contractor Danny LaVe, and paper mill operations supervisor Josh Roy.

What may hurt Achilles’ effort in the general election is the Democrats having their own nominee. Realtor David Roth is unopposed for the Democratic US Senate nomination and will advance into the general election, though he will have little in the way of resources with which to compete.

While Achilles, who resigned from the state House to devote full time to his Independent bid for the Senate, is clearly making a serious effort to construct a competitive campaign, he will need the Democratic leadership to force their eventual nominee out of the race so the party could endorse, or at least not impede, his stronger Independent effort opposite Sen. Risch.

Such a Democratic move, however, might prove to be a two-edged sword. While the Democrats not having their own nominee would help Achilles evolve the race into a two-way affair, the party leaders officially endorsing the Independent would hurt his ability to carve the centrist ideological path that he desires, especially since he served as a Democrat in the state House as recently as July.

While the PPP poll suggests that Sen. Risch may not be as strong as one would have believed when first glancing at the 2026 national Senate political card, Achilles still faces a difficult task of putting this race into play even though he is constructing a credible early effort.

Accounting for the most obvious positive and negative factors, Sen. Risch must still be regarded as the determinative favorite for re-election.

California’s 1st District:
A Tale of Two Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 23, 2026

House

Northern California’s 1st Congressional District. See interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

A confusing political situation is present in northern California as several more candidates than expected have filed for both the special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) and the regular election.

Redistricting has caused most of the confusion. The special election will occur in the 1st District to which Rep. LaMalfa was last elected while the regular term 1st District election will be held in the post-redistricting version. Though the field of candidates is largely the same for both campaigns, the two 1st Districts are political opposites.

Several surprising moves have been made. First, term-limited state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) announced early that he would run in the special election from the district that favors Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 60.2R – 37.7D), but he remained uncommitted about running for the full term in the Democratic 1st (DRA partisan lean: 55.2D – 44.1R).

It was thought that when Gallagher announced, he would have little competition and win the seat outright on June 2 and serve half a year in the House. The leading Democrat, it was believed, would not want to risk losing in the Republican 1st, which might potentially weaken his chances for the regular term.

The redistricted 1st CD was drawn for state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County), who at the time the redistricting referendum was moving through the legislature was state Senate President. Like Gallagher in the Assembly, Sen. McGuire was also ineligible to seek re-election to his current position. His price for getting the redistricting referendum through the Senate – the Democrats have a super majority but with no votes to spare – was a 1st District draw where he would run and be favored to win.

Since the map drawers shifted Democratic voters from Reps. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) and Mike Thompson’s (D-St. Helena/Napa) 2nd and 4th Districts while adding Sen. McGuire’s home county of Sonoma, the 1st was transformed into a Democratic CD. Therefore, it was initially expected that Gallagher would not enter the regular election and McGuire would not enter the special.

The next two surprising political moves occurred just before the candidate filing deadline expired on March 11. Gallagher actually entered the regular term race and McGuire decided to become a candidate in the special election. Both moves are curious, especially for McGuire.

While a Republican winning the new 1st District that now stretches from the Napa wine country east to the Nevada state line may not be impossible in a favorable election year, it will still be very difficult and especially so when national trends favor the Democrats. But, with few options, Gallagher, who is favored to win the special election, had little to lose by trying since the special election victory would only give him a maximum of six months in Congress.

The more surprising move — and a new poll suggests that Mr. McGuire may not be as strong as initially believed — was the former Senate President entering the special election in the Republican district. Though he should be the regular election favorite in a district he basically drew himself, losing the special election would likely pierce his aura of invincibility.

To complicate matters further, another Democrat — non-profit organization agriculture consultant and frequent candidate Audrey Denney — also filed for both elections. Her presence in the special election could have a significant effect.

In the special, all candidates are placed on one ballot, and should a contender receive majority support, the individual would be elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers regardless of political affiliation will advance to an Aug. 4 runoff election.

Therefore, having another credible Democrat in the special election changes the campaign. Now it will be more difficult for Gallagher to reach 50 percent because Denney could attract some Republican agriculture votes, but she also decreases McGuire’s percentage because she will capture more than a few Democratic votes.

For the regular term, all candidates are again on the same ballot, and on the same day (June 2 regular election primary day) for both elections. In the regular, the top two finishers, presumably Sen. McGuire and Assemblyman Gallagher, will advance to the general election irrespective of percentage attained.

A new poll from David Binder & Associates for the McGuire campaign tested the new 1st District and the result is underwhelming for their client. The survey (Feb. 24-28; 700 likely CA-1 regular term voters; live interview, online, & text) finds McGuire topping Assemblyman Gallagher by a slight 33-30 percent margin with Denney attracting a credible 18 percent.

With so many moving parts and all candidates having some disadvantages in at least one of the two 1st Districts, northern California’s tale of two races promises to feature some very interesting campaigns and results.