Category Archives: Polling

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Close Race Watch: Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 17, 2026

PA District sizes & locations are approximate representations. Click on the image or here to see full interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

The Pennsylvania US House races will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress. Of the state’s 17 House races, four are majority determinative, and each feature a vulnerable Republican incumbent seeking re-election.

PA-1

Five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) is perennially vulnerable. He’s in one of three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris yet elected a Republican to the House. Rep. Fitzpatrick has been able to score victory after victory in his Bucks County-anchored CD averaging 54.7 percent of the vote over his five elections, far exceeding the district’s partisan lean (51.8D – 46.3R – Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Prior to Rep. Fitzpatrick initially claiming the seat in the 2016 election, the Congressman’s brother, Michael Fitzpatrick, had held the seat for four non-consecutive terms. After spending 10 years on the Bucks County Commission, Michael Fitzpatrick was elected to the House in the 2004 election but was defeated for re-election in 2006. He would then regain the seat in 2010 and serve three consecutive terms. He did not seek re-election in 2016, yielding to his brother. Michael Fitzpatrick passed away from cancer in 2020. The Fitzpatrick family has a strong history in Bucks County politics.

This year, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces another strong candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won the Democratic primary with 64.9 percent of the vote. According to the latest June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Harvie has raised just over $2 million with an excess of $794,000 cash-on-hand post primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is in a commanding financial position, however, with over $6.3 million in his campaign account.

The 1st District will host another repeat campaign in 2026. Rep. Fitzpatrick is again favored for re-election, but a potentially adverse political climate for Republicans at the time of the election again puts this seat in the vulnerable category.

PA-7

The Keystone State’s 7th District, which is anchored in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, is like the 1st CD in that we always see close elections. In various iterations of this CD, the Republican candidates, former Reps. Pat Toomey, who would later become a US Senator, Charlie Dent, and now freshman Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie), have won a combined 11 of the past 14 congressional elections.

The last four, however, with former Rep. Susan Wild (D) winning three times, have been very close. In those four campaigns, the winning candidate has never exceeded 53.5 percent with an average of 51.7 percent. In 2024, Rep. Mackenzie unseated Wild with 50.5 percent of the vote.

This year, former Rep. Wild did not return to seek a rematch. The new Democratic nominee is former Pennsylvania Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0 percent of the vote. In the first post-primary published poll, from the Democratic firm GBAO (June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 voters), Brooks claimed a 47-43 percent lead over Rep. Mackenzie.

With a Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) calculated partisan lean of 50.2D – 47.5R, the 7th District will again return a very close finish in November.

According to the new FEC financial disclosure reports, Rep. Mackenzie holds a $2.9 million cash-on-hand advantage over Brooks’ $1.08 million.

PA-8

To the northeast of the 7th District lies the Scranton-anchored 8th CD where freshman US Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) seeks a second term after defeating six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in 2024. The Congressman’s 2026 Democratic opponent is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both Rep. Bresnahan and Mayor Cognetti were unopposed in their respective primaries, but 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the May nominating election.

Though the 8th CD slightly leans Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 50.0D – 47.9R), the district is more Republican than the other eastern PA districts. In fact, President Trump has run strongly here, carrying the seat in all three of his elections and posting a 54-45 percent win here in 2024 under the present district lines. Among the four competitive Pennsylvania US House districts, the 8th has perennially been President Trump’s strongest performer.

This will be another expensive race. The new FEC reports (reporting deadline: June 30) find Rep. Bresnahan with $2.6 million in his campaign account and Mayor Cognetti holding the advantage with $3.4 million, both taking advantage of having unopposed primaries.

Two Democratic pollsters, Lake Research Partners and Impact Research, conducted mid-June surveys and each largely arrived at the same conclusion. Each showed a basic dead heat with Mayor Cognetti leading by two and one percentage points, with both candidates scoring in the high 40s.

PA-10

The Harrisburg/York-anchored 10th District features a rematch between seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson. The 2024 election ended with a close Perry victory of 50.5 – 49.3 percent while President Trump was scoring a 52.0 – 46.8 percent here win over Kamala Harris.

Of the four competitive PA districts, the 10th is the only one where the DRA partisan lean favors the Republicans (50.7R – 46.8D). The 2022 court drawn redistricting map changed this district from one that heavily favored a conservative Republican to a politically marginal seat anchored in the state’s capital city of Harrisburg.

The 2024 race featured heavy spending with Stelson outspending the incumbent, $6.4 million to $4.6 million. According to the new FEC reports, Stelson again has the cash-on-hand advantage, $4.5 million to $2.8 million. Once more, we can expect heavy outside spending from both parties to attempt to influence the outcome.

The negatives for both candidates are that the Congressman, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is more conservative than the average constituent, and that Stelson, who anchored a television news desk in Lancaster, outside of the 10th District, is a carpetbagger.

Expect another close outcome in this highly competitive central Pennsylvania congressional district. Together, these four tight PA congressional districts could determine which party wins the House majority.

Close Races to Watch

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 16, 2026

Continuing our progress reports on competitive federal contests with flip or upset potential, today’s update reviews new polling from one Senate race (Michigan) and three House campaigns, one each in Florida, Nevada, and Washington.

Michigan Senate

The Michigan Democratic primary has undergone significant change within the past 10 days. State Sen. Mallory McMorrow’s (D-Royal Oak) withdrawal leaves Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department director Dr. Abdul El‑Sayed competing for her supporters.

Two new polls, conducted during the same period, present sharply different pictures of the race. The Glengariff polling firm that regularly surveys the Michigan electorate (for the Detroit News; July 8-11; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) posts Rep. Stevens to a 48-41 percent lead over Dr. El-Sayed.

The Data for Progress firm, however, sees a much different result. Their survey (for the American Priorities Super Pac; July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) projects Dr. El-Sayed as holding a double-digit lead of 54-41 percent. Taken together, the surveys show a net 20‑point swing in the candidates’ respective leads, underscoring how unsettled the primary remains.

Florida’s 14th District

Florida Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa) has held a safely Democratic Tampa anchored seat for 20 years, but she now faces the most difficult campaign of her career because of the new Sunshine State redistricting map.

According to Dave’s Redistricting App, the new configuration carries a 55.5R – 43.4D partisan lean – a net shift of nearly 31 points toward the GOP when compared with the 2021 map.

Florida’s primary is Aug. 18, so Castor will not know her Republican opponent for several weeks. A new St. Pete Polls survey (July 14-15; 469 likely FL-14 voters; automated calling and text) projects Rep. Castor to be holding a lead over the two most likely individuals favored to win the GOP primary.

According to the St. Pete data, Rep. Castor leads both former state Rep. Mike Beltran and current state Rep. Kevin Steele (R-Hudson), one of whom is likely to top the field of eight Republican hopefuls. Isolated with Beltran, the Castor advantage is 46-38 percent. If Rep. Steele becomes the party nominee, the early result is an almost identical 46-39 percent.

These early numbers likely reflect Castor’s strong name recognition. Once Republicans choose a nominee and the general election begins in earnest, the race is expected to tighten. FL‑14 is a must‑win for Republicans if they hope to maintain their narrow House majority.

Nevada’s 2nd District

Controversy surrounds Republican nominee David Flippo, a retired Air Force Lieutenant Colonel, in Nevada’s safest GOP seat. Critics highlight his recent political history: Flippo ran for Congress in NV‑4 in 2024 and for the state Assembly in a North Las Vegas district in 2022 – both far from the northern, Reno‑anchored NV‑2.

Despite the 2nd District’s strong Republican partisan lean (53.8R – 40.5D, per Dave’s Redistricting App), the new GOP congressional nominee trails in a recent ballot test. A Wedgewood Polls survey (July 9-12; 350 likely voters; online panel) shows former state House Majority Leader Teresa Benitz‑Thompson (D) leading Flippo 48-46 percent.

While the margin suggests a statistical tie, Flippo’s standing represents a significant underperformance in a district that should yield a mid- to high-50s Republican victory in November.

Washington’s 3rd District

Southwest Washington remains one of the GOP’s strongest non‑redistricting conversion opportunities. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D–Skamania County) has twice surprised Republicans by winning a district with a 52.0R – 45.6D partisan lean, but she now faces a more formidable challenger.

State Senate Minority Leader John Braun (R–Chehalis) is the likely general‑election finalist emerging from the Aug. 4 jungle primary. A new Emerson College survey (July 8–10; 500 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) forecasts Sen. Braun as holding a slight edge over Rep. Perez, 45-44 percent.

In the jungle primary, Sen. Braun leads the nine‑candidate field with 26 percent, while Rep. Perez posts 25 percent – a major warning sign for the incumbent. Once the primary concludes, this race is poised to become one of the cycle’s major battles.

Watching Close Congressional Races


By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 10, 2026

US House

While Republicans seem to be on the uptick in the Senate races considering the Democrats’ recent debacle in Maine and with consensus nominee Mike Rogers performing well in Michigan to possibly neutralize a probable Republican loss in North Carolina, recent polling in several key US House races suggest the Democrats have at least a modest early advantage in several majority-critical contests.

The redistricting wars have improved Republicans’ chances of retaining the House majority, yet the party candidates still must win the new seats the revised maps created and flip enough Democratic districts to counterbalance expected losses elsewhere.

Early general election polling suggests that several GOP incumbents and nominees face tough challenges, though much is yet to happen before any final result is recorded.

Five highly competitive campaigns have recently released ballot test data.

Alabama’s 2nd District

The new Yellowhammer State congressional redistricting map restores AL‑2 to its traditional southeast corner location with a Republican profile. The new plan effectively dismantles freshman Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Mobile) plurality‑minority seat. Still, Impact Research’s June survey (June 22–25; 400 likely voters) shows a competitive race unfolding: state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) leading Congressman Figures just 45-44 percent.

Marques is not yet the GOP nominee – Alabama’s congressional primaries for the newly constructed congressional districts occur on Aug. 11 – so Republicans expect their numbers to strengthen once the nomination election is settled.

New York’s 17th District

NY‑17 remains one of the most precarious Republican‑held seats in the country, being one of only three districts carried by Kamala Harris that elects a GOP member. FM3 Research’s late‑June survey for the House Majority PAC (June 27–July 1; 509 likely voters) shows Democratic nominee Cait Conley leading Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) 51-45 percent. Given New York’s recent hard left shift and the district’s underlying presidential lean, Rep. Lawler faces a difficult path to re‑election.

North Carolina’s 1st District

NC‑1 was the centerpiece of the state’s 2026 GOP redistricting strategy, which was designed to convert the seat to the GOP. A late‑June GQR poll for Democratic Snow Hill Rep. Don Davis (June 22–28; 500 likely voters) shows the Congressman trending ahead 45-41 percent over Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who nearly defeated him in 2024 within a more Democratic 1st District.

In 2024, polling understated Buckhout’s strength: GQR’s final survey showed Rep. Davis leading 50-39 percent, but he won only with a 49.5 – 47.8 percent margin. Recent cycles have often seen Democratic polling numbers hold while Republican support is undercounted. Buckhout trailing by four points in the early general election phase shows an improvement though, and her actual standing is therefore likely stronger than the topline suggests.

Pennsylvania’s 7th District

Turning to Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie/Allentown) was an upset winner in 2024 when he defeated three-term Democratic incumbent Susan Wild. The 2026 race promises to be a difficult hold for the new Congressman.

The GBAO polling firm (for House Majority PAC; June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 general election voters) finds Democratic challenger Bob Brooks, a retired firefighter and union leader who developed a strong coalition strategy to win the Democratic primary in May, currently leading Rep. Mackenzie, 47-43 percent.

Wisconsin’s 3rd District

In western Wisconsin, FM3 Research’s June poll (June 20–25; 535 likely voters), released in early July, shows Democrat Rebecca Cooke leading Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien/La Crosse) 50-46 percent. Cooke lost narrowly in 2024 (51.3 – 48.6 percent), and WI‑3 again appears poised for a spirited campaign and another close finish.

These five contests are genuinely competitive and could break either way as November approaches. They represent some of the most consequential US House races and will be central to determining which party ultimately controls the chamber next January.

Platner Plotting; McMorrow Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Senate

While the Graham Platner Senate candidacy saga continues in Maine, another US Senate campaign development is unfolding in Michigan, the site of another critical 2026 contest.

Michigan State Sen. Mallory McMorrow

Wolverine State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), after seeing her fortunes tumble recently with poor polling results, announced that she is suspending her US Senate campaign. The move means that what was an interesting three-way Democratic primary has now been boiled down to a race between Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

The plot thickens in Maine after most Democratic leaders are calling for Senate nominee Platner to withdraw from the race after yet another sexual assault incident, this time referenced as a rape, became public this week as victim Jenny Racicot came forward to tell her story.

Time is of the essence in Maine because the deadline for nominees to withdraw from their respective campaigns is Monday, July 13. While party leaders call for Platner to leave the race so they can choose a replacement nominee before July 27, the party nominee who received 72 percent of the primary vote on June 9th has yet to acquiesce to the withdrawal demands.

At least until Monday, Platner is in the power position since he does not have to withdraw because he is the official nominee and is apparently making current demands of the party leadership.

While reports are surfacing that many supporters, including his campaign manager, are telling Platner that he can overcome the current bad publicity over the rape accusation – he publicly denies Racicot’s accounting of her story – the nominee is reportedly telling the party leaders that one price for him leaving the race is that he be allowed to choose his own successor.

Withdrawal deadlines are stated under Maine’s election law, and the party is given a time period – in 2026, until July 27 – to choose a new nominee; but the law is silent regarding the replacement procedure. The deadline exists, but not the method by which Maine would replace Platner should he resign.

While many Democratic politicians are beginning to position themselves in an attempt to succeed Platner, including many of the gubernatorial candidates who lost on June 9, such moves become moot if the nominee refuses to withdraw by Monday. Therefore, if Platner does nothing between now and Monday afternoon, he remains the Democratic US Senate nominee.

In certain ways, the Michigan race is the harbinger of which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. While Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority margin, a party loss in North Carolina to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, which appears likely at this point, will pull the Democrats within a 52-48 deficit.

Among the three competitive Democratic defense states this year – Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire – the Republicans’ best chance at scoring a conversion comes in the Wolverine State where former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers has a legitimate chance to win the general election.

Before Sen. McMorrow made the move to end her active campaign, the battle appeared as a tight three-way contest among McMorrow, Stevens, and El-Sayed. Recent polling, however, detected McMorrow falling significantly behind, leading to her early exit.

Eight polls, from seven different pollsters over a period beginning in mid-May to the present. find El-Sayed leading the race with McMorrow now trailing far behind, averaging just 13 percent support and placing third in each of these Democratic Senate race polls.

The Democratic battle will now continue as Rep. Stevens will attempt to attract the McMorrow support in order to overcome El-Sayed’s lead. We can expect a close outcome on Aug. 4.

With Democrats having ongoing problems in these two critical Senate races, Republican prospects of holding their small majority have improved. Next week is sure to bring further interesting developments in both Michigan and Maine.

Examining Redistricting’s Impact on Elections in California & Texas

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 6, 2026

Redistricting

Big predictions were made early in the year from both Democrats and Republicans as to how their side would perform in the newly drawn congressional districts particularly in California and Texas.

Republicans said they would gain five seats in Texas, while the California Democratic map was designed to neutralize that advantage. Are the new districts in both states so far performing as predicted?

Looking at the California jungle primary vote figures and general election statistical projections and polling in Texas, we can begin to determine if the benchmarks will be met.

First, the California districts: the plan was to convert Republican seats in Districts 1 (the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and now Rep. James Gallagher), 6 (Rep. Kevin Kiley), 22 (Rep. David Valadao), 38 (open seat due to pairing Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim in new District 40), and 48 (open seat because of Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement).

Though California’s slow counting and certification process for the June 2 jungle primary is still not finished, most ballots have now been scanned and tabulated giving us a clear picture of the November landscape.

In the northern 1st District, Rep. Gallagher easily won the June 2 special election outright in the previous 1st CD, but the November election in the new 1st will likely produce a different outcome. While Rep. Gallagher (R-East Nicolaus) leads state Sen. Mike McGuire (R-Sonoma County) in the jungle primary by 854 votes, the aggregate Democratic vote (three candidates) combined for 56.8 percent, suggesting that the new Republican Congressman has a major hill to climb if he is to win a full term in November.

In the Sacramento-anchored 6th District, Rep. Kiley is running as a No Party Preference (NPP) candidate, though he still caucuses with Republicans. He finished first in the jungle primary with 24.3 percent of the vote. For a time, it appeared that Rep. Kiley and Republican Michael Stansfield would both advance, but former state Sen. Richard Pan (D) ultimately claimed the second spot. The aggregate Democratic vote among four candidates is 54.1 percent, making Kiley an underdog heading into the general election.

Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford/Fresno) has repeatedly won in a Democratic-leaning Central Valley district, losing only in 2018 before reclaiming the seat in 2020 and winning again in 2022 and 2024. Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) rates the new 22nd District at 52.1D – 47.2R, an improvement for Republicans compared to the previous 55.5D – 42.6R configuration. Yet in the jungle primary, Valadao took just 40.7 percent of the vote, while his two Democratic opponents combined for 59.3 percent.

Even so, Rep. Valadao has a track record of surviving in tougher districts than the new CA-22.

The new 38th District is solidly Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 57.1D–41.9R), positioning Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Rep. Hilda Solis (D) for an easy general election win. In the jungle primary, Solis received 47.6 percent of the vote, and the combined Democratic share from three candidates reached 64.2 percent. As a conversion district, the 38th is almost certain to move into the Democratic column in November.

In the new 48th District, opened by Rep. Issa’s retirement, Republicans still have a plausible path to holding the seat with San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. In the primary, Desmond led San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, 38.9 –20.8 percent, but the aggregate Democratic vote (nine candidates) was 54.1 percent.

Desmond already represents much of the new, largely rural 48th, which now ventures from San Diego County into Riverside County. The district does not include any part of San Diego city, meaning von Wilpert must build new relationships in unfamiliar territory. This race is one to watch in November.

In Texas, Republicans are targeting Districts 9 (an open seat created by pairing Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee in new District 18), 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar), 32 (Rep. Julie Johnson), 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez), and 35 (an open seat resulting from pairing Reps. Lloyd Doggett and Greg Casar in new District 37). GOP candidates in Districts 9 and 32 – investment banker Alexandra Mealer and attorney and Space Force veteran Jace Yarborough – should be considered clear favorites to flip their seats.

In the 28th District, a Pulse Decision Science poll of 400 likely voters shows Republican challenger and Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina leading Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), 46-38 percent. The GOP appears to have recruited its strongest possible candidate against Cuellar, and if this survey is accurate, Judge Tijerina has a strong chance to deliver a Republican pickup in November.

In the Brownsville-based 34th District, a Ragnar Research Partners poll (June 14-16; 400 likely voters; live interviews) finds Republican challenger Eric Flores running ahead of Rep. Gonzalez (D-McAllen), 44-41 percent, in a race widely viewed as a toss-up.

Finally, in the new San Antonio-anchored 35th District – rated by DRA at 50.9R – 46.7D – Republican businessman Carlos De La Cruz, brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen), appears to hold at least a slight edge over Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia (D).

Taken together, the emerging results in California and Texas suggest that both new congressional maps are largely performing as drawn. However, given the close margins and competitive dynamics in several districts, each state still has the potential to produce at least one notable November upset.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Could Sen. Markey of Massachusetts Be the Next Incumbent to Fall?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 2, 2026

US Senate

A new Massachusetts political survey finds Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) closing the gap with Sen. Ed Markey (D) in a Democratic Senate primary ballot test, an early indication that Bay State Democrats could become the next constituency to seriously threaten an incumbent seeking renomination.

With the Colorado primary completed earlier this week, 31 states have now nominated candidates or advanced contenders to runoff elections. July brings only one state primary – Arizona on the 21st (and a South Dakota runoff on the 27th) – creating a brief respite before the August and September primaries conclude the 2026 nomination process.

So far, 10 incumbents have felt the wrath of their own party’s voters. Seven US House members (5 Democrats; 2 Republicans) have been defeated for renomination along with two Senators (2 Republicans). A third Senator, Colorado’s Michael Bennet (D), also lost on Tuesday, but he was running for Governor and not forced to risk his federal position.

The University of New Hampshire’s latest survey of Massachusetts voters (June 18-23; 633 likely general election voters; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) shows Sen. Markey’s lead over Rep. Moulton narrowing to 41-35 percent.

Though the Democratic polling sample is small for a statewide survey, the findings align with other previously released data. Emerson College’s May poll (May 3-4; 451 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) detected a 37-32 percent Markey advantage. UNH’s April Massachusetts survey (April 16-20; 353 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found Markey ahead 46-33 percent.

Though the Senator still leads in every publicly released poll, his margins are not commanding. He has failed to exceed the 50 percent support level in any statewide Democratic primary survey since October 2025.

Additional indicators suggest the race merits close attention as the Sept. 1 primary approaches. At the Massachusetts Democratic convention on May 30, Markey won a strong 72.9 percent of the 3,762 delegate votes. Rep. Moulton’s 27.1 percent share, however, easily surpassed the 15 percent threshold required to secure a primary ballot line.

Fundraising numbers also point to a competitive contest. While second‑quarter reports will not be released until at least July 15, the March 31 Federal Election Commission filing showed Moulton with $3.3 million cash on hand compared to Markey’s $2.5 million. Sen. Markey is expected to post significantly stronger numbers in the next report, potentially aided by independent coalition support. If he does not, it would further reinforce the perception of a serious primary challenge.

Should Rep. Moulton deny the Senator renomination, it will not be considered a Democratic Socialist victory. Rep. Moulton, a Marine Corps veteran who has won two Bronze Star medals along with a Navy and Marine Corps Commendation medal, is not a DSA candidate, and during his dozen years in the House has cast some politically moderate votes. So far in the Senate campaign, however, he has moved distinctly to the left.

While a Moulton upset would differ from the recent DSA‑aligned victories in the New York and Colorado US House primaries, it would nonetheless underscore the high level of frustration within both parties’ electorates. Should this trend persist, the general election could bring an unusually large number of incumbent defeats.

Pivotal Colorado Primary Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Primary

Polling suggests that today’s Colorado Democratic gubernatorial primary could produce another major upset. Surveys indicate a surprisingly close contest between Sen. Michael Bennet and Attorney General Phil Weiser.

When Sen. Bennet entered the Governor’s race – without having to risk his Senate seat – several competitive candidates withdrew, assuming he would be difficult to defeat in a statewide primary. The one officeholder who remained was term‑limited Attorney General Weiser, and current polling indicates that Sen. Bennet losing tonight is a realistic possibility.

Recent primary and runoff polling around the country has been inconsistent. For example, a Wedgewood Polls survey of the Louisiana Republican Senate runoff (June 22-24; 753 likely Louisiana GOP voters) showed State Treasurer John Fleming leading Rep. Julia Letlow 51-47 percent. On June 27, however, Letlow won 57-43 percent. This underscores the need for caution when interpreting public polling.

The most recent study, from reputable Public Policy Polling (June 24-26; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; text & live interview) projects AG Weiser to be leading Sen. Bennet 45-36% percent. In PPP’s June 1-2 poll, Sen. Bennet was ahead 36-30 percent.

A further challenge for Bennet is that his support appears to have a ceiling. After beginning the year with a 2:1 lead over any prospective Democratic opponent, including Weiser, Sen. Bennet has not exceeded 36 percent in any poll – a clear warning sign for his prospects tonight.

Even if Bennet loses, it would be difficult to frame the result as a Democratic Socialist victory, however. While Weiser is campaigning to the left, he is not relying upon socialist rhetoric. Like all Democratic candidates, he is running against President Trump, but he has also emphasized Colorado‑specific issues and mounted an exhaustive campaign effort. If Bennet assumed Weiser would be easy to defeat, he appears to have misjudged his opponent.

In the Senate race, incumbent and former Gov. John Hickenlooper should win renomination tonight, but even he has not performed particularly well in the one recent poll we have seen of this race. Expect Sen. Hickenlooper to defeat state Sen. Julie Gonzalez (D-Denver), another DSA candidate, but his victory percentage may be smaller than one would expect from a well-known incumbent before voters of his own party.

Several House races are also contested, but Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs), Jason Crow (D-Aurora), and Brittany Petersen (D-Lakewood) are all unopposed for renomination.

One of the most striking contests is the DSA challenge to veteran Rep. Diana DeGette (D) in Denver’s 1st District. Attorney Melat Kiros is running slightly ahead in limited polling and dominated the Democratic endorsing convention. Kiros received nearly 70 percent support from convention delegates, while DeGette qualified for the ballot by only eight delegate votes above the minimum – making this another potential DSA upset.

In the western slope 3rd District, freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R‑Grand Junction) faces a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ron Hanks. Rep. Hurd is expected to win easily but will likely face a competitive general election, probably against venture capitalist Alex Kelloff.

The 8th Congressional District, located north and northeast of Denver, was created by the Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission as a domain that the local political winds could influence. CO-8 is one of the most politically marginal districts in the country, and every election is expected to be competitive.

Democrats began with a large primary field, but most candidates have withdrawn, realistically leaving a contest between state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D‑Commerce City) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird. Rutinel has been a strong fundraiser but spent heavily during the primary. Ms. Bird, viewed as a slight underdog, is the more centrist candidate and has faced outside attacks for being too pro‑Israel. The stakes in this primary are high.

The winner will face freshman Republican Gabe Evans (R‑Ft. Lupton/Thornton), who is considered one of the most endangered GOP incumbents in the nation due to the district’s competitiveness. Regardless of tonight’s Democratic outcome, the CO‑8 general election will immediately become a national congressional contest.

Letlow Wins Louisiana Senate Runoff

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 29, 2026

Senate

Louisiana Rep. Julia Letlow (R)

The late polling numbers suggesting that Saturday’s Louisiana Republican Senate runoff was headed for a photo finish proved inaccurate.

Despite ballot test data indicating that State Treasurer John Fleming had a chance to upset Rep. Julia Letlow (R Start), the Congresswoman instead posted a strong 57-43 percent victory, closely mirroring polling released shortly after the May 16 primary.

Rep. Letlow is now the official Republican nominee, which almost guarantees her entrance into the Senate next year.

A major theme in the later phase of the campaign was the debate over a carbon capture procedure, an issue on which Dr. Fleming sharply criticized both Rep. Letlow and Gov. Jeff Landry (R).

The carbon topic drew significant media attention and dominated much of the advertising, particularly from the Fleming campaign. At the time, many political analysts believed the carbon capture issue was moving votes, helping explain Fleming’s apparent rise in late polling.

Immediately after the primary, Rep. Letlow opened with an average 57-36 percent lead based on two public polls – Harper Polling (May 18-19; 457 likely GOP runoff voters) and Kaplan Strategies (May 24-26; 850 likely GOP runoff voters) – each showing nearly identical results.

As the runoff approached, however, the race appeared to tighten. BDPC (June 15–16; likely GOP runoff voters) found Letlow ahead just 40–38 percent. JMC Analytics (June 21–22; 600 likely GOP runoff voters), polling for the Fleming campaign, even showed its candidate leading 45-40 percent. The final pre runoff survey, from Quantus Insights (June 23–24; 770 likely GOP runoff voters), placed Letlow back in front but with only a 48-45 percent edge.

With these late polls suggesting a toss up, uncertainty surrounded the final days of the campaign. Ultimately, however, the close polling proved inaccurate, and Rep. Letlow secured a decisive win.

Turnout for the runoff was abnormally high. According to the Louisiana Secretary of State’s unofficial report, 316,538 votes were cast in the Republican contest, 79 percent of the May 16 primary total. Runoffs typically draw between 50 percent and 67 percent of primary participation, making Saturday’s turnout unusually strong and likely benefiting Letlow.

Dr. Fleming performed well in his former 4th Congressional District, carrying most parishes in the region. He previously represented western Louisiana for four terms in the US House before risking the seat for an unsuccessful 2016 Senate bid. The rest of the state, aside from Orleans Parish, voted solidly for Letlow. She dominated her home 5th District and performed strongly in southern Louisiana’s Cajun Country.

Although Dr. Fleming had a long-standing relationship with President Trump – including service in two Administration roles and as Deputy White House Chief of Staff – he did not receive the all-important presidential endorsement.

President Trump instead announced his support for Rep. Letlow early, even before she formally entered the race, believing she was the strongest candidate to topple Sen. Bill Cassidy in the primary and hold the seat for Republicans in the general election. It is likely that this pre-election analysis will prove correct in November.

Democrats also held a Senate runoff. Farmer and 2023 state Representative candidate Jamie Davis defeated businessman and retired Navy veteran Gary Crockett by a wide 80–20 percent margin. Democratic turnout was under 197,000, far below Republican participation. Davis now enters the general election as a significant underdog against Rep. Letlow.

While national Democrats are seeking to expand the Senate map, Louisiana is an unlikely target for a major investment of campaign resources. With a statewide partisan lean of 58.3R – 41.7%D (Dave’s Redistricting App) and a Democratic nominee without a national fundraising base, the 2026 Louisiana Senate race is expected to be relatively quiet and culminate in a Republican victory.