Category Archives: Polling

Florida Rep. Wilson to Retire;
Today’s Primary Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 2, 2026

FL-24

Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson

Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement for several weeks, and yesterday the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House. Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent from Congress for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery.

During her absence from the House, Rep. Wilson had continued to say she would seek re-election but now replies she was only being “politically strategic,” according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog. Wilson explained that her earlier statements were intended to avoid giving map drawers any incentive to dismantle her district during the redistricting process.

Rep. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving 12 years in the state legislature. Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81 percent of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

There are now 67 open US House seats – 38 from the Republican column and 23 from the Democratic side. An additional six seats were created through various new redistricting maps. Of the 67 openings, however, only 29 members are voluntarily retiring from elective politics (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats).

Today’s Primary Notes

Several late‑breaking stories are emerging just ahead of today’s major primary election day.

First, in Iowa, a surprising poll is charting new data waters. In the open Republican gubernatorial primary, JMC Analytics released their latest Iowa survey (May 27-28; 550 likely Iowa Republican primary voters; live interview), which posts investment executive Zach Lahn to a small 27-24 percent lead over Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City); Lahn may be in position to score an upset tonight.

The only other published poll of the GOP primary came in April from Victory Enterprises (April 14–15; 500 likely Iowa Republican primary voters). That survey showed Rep. Feenstra holding a commanding 41-8 percent lead over Lahn.

The Republican primary winner will then face State Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election promises to be highly competitive. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term.

In California, several survey research firms have recently tested the gubernatorial jungle primary. Earlier in the cycle, most polling suggested that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance to the general election. Now, however, there is growing uncertainty about whether Hilton might be edged out, potentially allowing two Democrats to qualify instead.

To recap, California places all candidates on a single primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote percentage, advance to the general election.

Four polls were conducted between May 26 and 28 by four different research firms. While all show the top three candidates – Hilton, former Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer – tightly clustered, there is no clear consensus on which two will advance to the general election. All three consistently fall within each survey’s margin of error.

It is clear the result will be extremely close, and it is possible that weeks could pass before we know definitively which two candidates advance to the general election. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, largely because election officials allow ballots to be received and counted well after Election Day. In fact, the Secretary of State has 36 days to tally and certify all ballots.

Therefore, late‑breaking developments in both Iowa and California suggest that the Governors’ races in these states could produce unpredictable outcomes. The Iowa results will likely be known tonight, but the California counting process is expected to be lengthy.

Texas Runoffs; 17 Decided Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

While the highly publicized Texas Republican primary campaign between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton will be settled today, 16 US House runoffs will also be decided, including six major contests.

President Trump may have helped tilt the race in Paxton’s favor, but the early vote turnout model seems to favor Sen. Cornyn.

For US Reps. Nathaniel Moran (R-Whitehouse/Tyler), Lance Gooden (R-Terrell), Lizzie Fletcher (D-Houston), Randy Weber (R-Friendswood/Galveston), Veronica Escobar (D-El Paso), Pete Sessions (R-Waco), Beth Van Duyne (R-Irving), and Greg Casar (D-Austin), along with open seat contenders Frederick Haynes (D-Dallas) and Jace Yarborough (R-Rockwall), today’s results will determine their general election opponents.

All eight incumbents, as well as Pastor Haynes and Yarborough, enter the fall campaign as prohibitive favorites.

Six competitive House runoff results tonight will likely determine the districts’ next US Representative. The half‑dozen include open CD-9, created under the new 2026 redistricting plan; CD‑18, featuring the incumbent pairing between Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee; and Lubbock‑based District 19, where agribusinessman Tom Sell faces conservative activist Abraham Enriquez.

Turning to the Dallas Metroplex, the CD‑33 runoff features freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D‑Farmers Branch) facing former Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee Colin Allred. Farther south along I‑35, the new redistricting‑created 35th District-anchored in San Antonio will also be decided tonight; as will the Houston open seat that Rep. Wesley Hunt (R‑Houston) risked to pursue a Senate bid.

TX-9

The newly created east Harris County-anchored 9th District is designed to elect a Republican, which is why today’s runoff will likely determine the general election winner. The two Republican candidates are investment banker and Army veteran Alexandra “Alex” Mealer, who President Trump endorses, and state Rep. Briscoe Caine (R-Deer Park), who Gov. Greg Abbott supports.

Mealer finished first in the primary with 35.8 percent, ahead of Rep. Cain’s 31.2 percent. The runoff is again expected to be close, particularly given that runoff turnout is typically lower than in the primary. The winner will face Democratic nominee Letty Gutierrez, a lobbyist and former Houston City Council staff member. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App analysis, the new 9th District carries a 51.6R–46.6D partisan lean.

TX-18

The new Houston-anchored, safely Democratic 18th District pairs veteran Rep. Al Green with special election winner Christian Menefee in a Democratic runoff that will determine which of the two members will continue his congressional career. In the primary, Menefee, despite representing only 26 percent of the newly drawn district, edged Rep. Green 46.0 to 44.2 percent. As with all runoffs, the candidate who most effectively turns out his voter base is likely to prevail.

TX-19

Agribusinessman Tom Sell came very close to winning the Republican nomination outright on March 3. He is widely expected to seal the nomination tonight. In the primary, he finished first with 40.4 percent of the vote. Because the margin between second and third place was only 193 votes, it took several weeks to determine that Abraham Enriquez had qualified for the runoff.

The closeness of the primary is of little consequence because Sell is expected to easily win tonight. With a 72.4R – 25.4D partisan lean, he will also enter the general election as the prohibitive favorite.

TX-33

The 33rd District contest is another Democratic runoff featuring candidates with prior electoral success. Freshman Rep. Julie Johnson previously represented the 32nd District, which was converted to a Republican seat during redistricting. She now faces former Rep. Colin Allred, who entered the race after withdrawing from the Senate campaign.

In the primary, Allred finished first with a substantial 44.0 to 33.2 percent margin. He also reported an approximate $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage through the May 6 financial disclosure deadline. Tonight’s winner secures the seat in November. The DRA partisan lean for the newly configured 33rd CD, now fully contained within Dallas County, is 70.9D – 26.7R.

TX-35

Texas’s new 35th CD is another product of the 2026 redistricting plan. The seat covers a large portion of the southeastern San Antonio suburbs and extends roughly halfway toward Corpus Christi. The district’s DRA partisan lean is 50.9R to 46.7D, indicating a Republican advantage but before an electorate that has the potential of becoming competitive in November.

Both parties are locked in runoffs tonight. The Republicans feature state Rep. John Lujan (R-San Antonio) battling businessman Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-McAllen). This is another race that pits a President Trump-endorsed candidate (De La Cruz) against one who Gov. Abbott supports (Lujan).

On the Democratic side, Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia has support from party leadership as he faces former San Antonio City Council candidate Maureen Galindo, who has reportedly expressed anti‑Semitic views. Outside organizations have been “attacking” Galindo with messages aimed at appealing to and energizing far‑left voters. Democratic officials argue these ads are being funded by Republican‑aligned groups attempting to boost Galindo over Garcia in the primary.

Whoever emerges from both party runoffs tonight will set up an especially interesting general election.

TX-38

As in TX‑19, the outcome of this runoff appears largely pre-determined. Competing in the Republican contest to succeed departing Rep. Wesley Hunt in this safely Republican district (DRA partisan lean: 60.5R to 37.4D) are mortgage broker Jon Bonck and businesswoman Shelly deZevallos. Bonck led the initial primary with a 46.8 to 18.9 percent margin – just about three points short of securing the nomination outright.

Unlike the TX‑32 primary, where the challenger conceded before the runoff, deZevallos pushed this contest into a second round. While the race is still competitive, most indicators point toward a Bonck victory, though deZevallos has had sufficient resources to remain viable. Regardless of tonight’s outcome, the eventual Republican nominee is expected to hold this safely GOP seat in November.

Texas Senate Race: Not So Fast

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Senate

The Texas Senate Republican runoff is Tuesday, and President Trump’s endorsement this week of Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn has certainly drawn even more attention to this race. But is it the clinching blow? Several points suggest otherwise.

To recap, Sen. Cornyn placed first in the March 3 primary with a 41-40 percent edge over AG Paxton. The incumbent performed well in the state’s major population centers while Paxton handily carried most of the Texas rural regions with the notable exceptions of the Panhandle and South Texas.

As we have seen recently with the defeats of Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, the President has been on a strong political run in helping his endorsed candidates secure victories.

There are several reasons why the Texas situation differs from the previously mentioned campaigns. In both the Cassidy and Massie races, President Trump’s involvement centered on Republican officeholders who had openly opposed him. Trump sought to defeat Sen. Cassidy because of his vote to convict during the 2021 impeachment proceedings.

Rep. Massie, meanwhile, had long been a member who frequently broke with the President’s proposals and was widely viewed as the least loyal House Republican in terms of supporting Trump’s policy agenda.

The Texas situation is different. First, the President is not attacking Cornyn as an enemy; in fact, for a time he appeared inclined to endorse the Senator. This, even though Paxton has been a loyal Trump supporter since the very beginning of the President’s political rise in 2016.

Secondly, both four‑term Sen. Cornyn, previously elected as state Attorney General and to the Texas Supreme Court, and AG Paxton, who has won three statewide general elections and two competitive primaries, are already very well known to Texas Republican primary voters. As a result, the extent to which a last‑minute presidential endorsement can sway or energize voters on Paxton’s behalf is open to question.

Third, it’s possible the President is influenced with the latest polls because the most recent May research studies have produced results suggesting the closing trends were moving away from the incumbent.

Peak Insights (May 2-5; 800 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) found Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied with a 47-46 percent split in the Senator’s favor. The Remington Research Group and the Global Strategy Group, the latter a Democratic pollster, detected a much different result slightly later in the month. The RRG data (May 3-5; 1,810 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) reported Paxton leading 47-36 percent, while GSG (May 6-11; 600 likely Texas Republican runoff voters) saw an even wider 52-40 percent Paxton advantage.

If polls factored into the President’s endorsement, the decision may have been hasty. In the primary, the six surveys conducted closest to Election Day showed Paxton leading by an average of seven percentage points. Yet Cornyn ultimately prevailed by a single point, indicating an eight‑point average polling miss.

Additionally, polling for a runoff is even more challenging than polling for a primary. Turnout in a Texas secondary election is typically one‑third to one‑half lower than in the primary, making accurate measurement even more difficult and the results less certain.

Furthermore, turnout tends to be higher in metro areas than in rural communities, a dynamic that could help Cornyn since he did well in the cities on March 3.

While the state does not have a mass vote‑by‑mail program, it does allow in‑person early voting for roughly a month before Election Day in regular elections and over a five‑day period for runoffs. According to the Target Early Target Smart organization, which tracks early voting, three‑quarters of the 2024 Texas general‑election vote was cast before Election Day.

With early voting ending on Friday, the Trump endorsement may have less impact because a substantial share of ballots are already cast.

The Texas Senate race remains one of the more compelling contests of the 2026 election cycle and will continue to draw significant attention through the general election, regardless of Tuesday’s Republican runoff result.

While the Trump endorsement has proven golden for many Republicans seeking a party nomination, the factors outlined above suggest the outcome on May 26 could be different. Once again, significant political attention will soon be focused on the Lone Star State.

Six States Voting Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 16, 2026

A half‑dozen states are holding their nominating elections today, and several major races will be decided. Runoffs in the top contests are likely in Alabama and Georgia. Nominations will be settled tonight in Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Below, we highlight the notable races in each state.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville is well positioned to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination tonight, while Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall appear most likely to advance to a Republican Senatorial runoff.

Because of redistricting, only Congressional Districts 3 (Rep. Mike Rogers-R), 4 (Rep. Robert Aderholt-R), and 5 (Rep. Dale Srong-R) hold their primaries today.

The primaries for Disricts 1, Open Seat; 2, Rep. Shomari Figures (D); 6, Rep. Gary Palmer (R); and 7, Rep. Terri Sewell (D); have been postponed to Aug. 11. Districts 3, 4, and 5 saw no boundary changes in the new 2026 map, so there was no reason to delay the primary in those particular domains.

Georgia

Two statewide races will dominate Georgia’s political landscape tonight. With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties are holding open contests to choose their nominees. In the Republican primary, businessman Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones have consistently placed first and second in most polling.

Should the results track those trends, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr would be sidelined from advancing. On the Democratic side, the key question is whether former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms can reach the 50 percent threshold needed to secure the nomination outright.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other U.S. candidate. In the Republican primary, it appears likely that Reps. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R‑Pooler/Savannah) will advance ahead of former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley.

Four open seats in Districts 1, 10, 11, and 13 will likely see party runoffs form in each campaign. Among the notable candidates expected to advance are Jim Kingston (R), son of former longtime Congressman Jack Kingston (R), in District 1; and Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore in District 11.

In District 13, the primary results will determine the general‑election matchups ahead of the July 28 special election to replace the late Rep. David Scott (D‑Atlanta). Two leading contenders, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D‑Decatur) and state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), are opting not to run in the special election.

Idaho

Expect a quiet primary night in Idaho as incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R) and Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) all appear set for strong general election runs.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, faces eight minor Republican challengers and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into November.

Kentucky

The two major Kentucky contests are the open US Senate race and the Republican primary challenge to seven‑term Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑Garrison), a frequent critic of President Trump.

On the Republican side, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) appears to have made all the right moves in the closing stretch of the campaign to secure the party’s nomination. If such holds true tonight, he would have the inside track to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

For Democrats, the contest is between former state Rep. Charles Booker and 2020 US Senate nominee Amy McGrath. Booker leads in most polling, while McGrath holds the financial advantage.

As President Trump successfully targeted the Indiana state Senators who opposed his redistricting push, as well as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R‑LA), who lost his primary on Saturday, Rep. Massie now becomes his most recent potential political target.

The Congressman’s Republican primary challenger is retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who holds the President’s endorsement. Polling has been competitive, but Gallrein posted a 51–44 percent advantage, outside the survey’s margin of error, in the most recently released poll (Grayhouse; May 16–17; 435 likely KY‑4 Republican primary voters).

Republican officeholders who have opposed President Trump have generally fared poorly in subsequent elections, so tonight will show whether that pattern continues in Rep. Massie’s case.

Oregon

There is little suspense in today’s Oregon primary. Incumbents seeking re-election appear secure in their respective contests. The most notable race is the Republican gubernatorial primary, where 2022 nominee Christine Drazan is viewed as the favorite over state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley.

Whoever wins the GOP nomination will enter the general election as a clear underdog against Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who is seeking a second term.

Pennsylvania

The electorates in three U.S. House races will select Democratic nominees tonight, and all three could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general‑election campaign in this politically competitive district.

Democrats have three strong contenders vying for the nomination tonight: State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries tonight. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. His likely opponent is 2024 nominee Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held him to a 51–49 percent victory two years ago. Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas is challenging her in the Democratic primary, but Stelson is favored.

Louisiana Senate Primary Tomorrow

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 15, 2026

Primary

Voting in the hard-fought Louisiana Republican primary among Sen. Bill Cassidy, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start), and State Treasurer John Fleming takes place tomorrow, and only two things appear certain. First, the race is headed to a runoff because none of the three candidates has majority support. Second, one contender will be eliminated, but polling has not definitively shown which one.

Ever since President Trump was re-elected, it became clear that he would seek to defeat Sen. Cassidy in Louisiana’s Republican nomination contest. Cassidy was one of two Republican Senators who voted to convict Trump in the 2021 impeachment trial, likely under the assumption that the outgoing president would never return to office.

True to form, Trump is now seeking political retribution. The only other Republican Senator on the 2026 ballot who voted to convict him in the impeachment trial is Maine’s Susan Collins. But because Republicans view her as their only chance of holding that seat, she has thus far avoided presidential opposition.

President Trump endorsed Rep. Letlow even before she officially entered the Senate race. The campaign’s true surprise, however, is State Treasurer and former Congressman Fleming’s strength. He has turned the Senate primary into a genuine three-way contest – a development few observers anticipated.

On the eve of the primary, it remains unclear which of the three candidates will be eliminated tomorrow, and it is entirely possible that Sen. Cassidy could even fail to qualify for the runoff election.

Four polls have been released since April 26 – from Emerson College, BDPC (a Louisiana polling firm), Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, and Quantus Insights. The two challengers have led in at least one of the recent surveys, while the incumbent has failed to place first.

The Emerson College poll (April 24-26; 455 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds a virtual two-way tie, with Sen. Cassidy trailing outside the survey’s margin of error. The ballot test shows Fleming leading Letlow, 28-27 percent, while Sen. Cassidy attracts only 21 percent support.

The BDPC poll (April 28-30; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) projects Letlow leading beyond the survey’s margin of error, with Sen. Cassidy and Dr. Fleming tied for second place but well behind. The ballot test favors Letlow, 33-21-21 percent.

The Fabrizio, Lee & Associates study (April 4-5; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; live interview and text) also finds Rep. Letlow leading, with Sen. Cassidy in second place and Dr. Fleming falling short of runoff qualification. The Fabrizio ballot test posts a 32-26-21 percent split.

The most recent survey, from Quantus Insights (May 6-7; 1,015 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; online), paints yet another distinctly different picture. Here, Rep. Letlow leads with 42 percent support, the strongest showing for any candidate in the recent polling, though still well below the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Thus, despite Letlow’s sizable advantage, the Quantus numbers still point toward a secondary election.

Dr. Fleming places second with 30 percent support in the Quantus result, while Sen. Cassidy trails badly at just 20 percent among Republican primary voters.

The cumulative results of these polls suggest that Rep. Letlow is likely to qualify for the second round, while it remains a toss-up whether Sen. Cassidy or Dr. Fleming will join her in the runoff. This is a rare situation in which, on the eve of a primary election, it is uncertain whether an incumbent will even advance to the runoff.

One area in which Sen. Cassidy leads is campaign resources. Through the April 26 pre-primary reporting period, he had raised $13.3 million and retained more than $5.5 million for the final stretch before the primary. By comparison, Dr. Fleming raised $11.2 million, including $9.6 million from individuals other than himself, while Rep. Letlow has raised just under $4.4 million.

Since the 2026 election has thus far proved to be turnout rather than persuasion driven, Sen. Cassidy using his financial advantage to deploy his vote base to the maximum degree will greatly improve his chances of securing a runoff position.

With inconsistent polling results over a prolonged period, virtually anything could happen tomorrow. The runoff election is scheduled for June 27.

CA-48: Competitive Without Issa

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 27, 2026

House

San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R)

Texas and California have attracted the most attention when it comes to 2026 mid-decade redistricting, and a newly released poll highlights one of the seats that Democrats had marked as a major California target.

Survey USA has published fresh data for California’s new 48th CD anchored in San Diego County. This is one of the Republican‑held seats that Democrats substantially re-drew during the state’s redistricting process.

Incumbent GOP Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is not seeking re-election. After the Congressman announced his retirement plans, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) shifted his campaign from challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) in District 49 to running for the open 48th.

The switch was strategically logical: the 48th leans more Republican than the 49th, Desmond avoids facing a four‑term incumbent, and the district includes a much larger portion of his current supervisorial constituency.

Dave’s Redistricting App rates the new 48th at 50.6D – 48.7R, a notable shift from the previous version’s 58.3R – 39.8D. Even so, the new draw remains competitive for a Republican candidate.

The latest S-USA survey signals that this seat may be more difficult for Democrats to flip the map drawers originally professed. The poll (April 14-19; 500 likely CA-48 jungle primary voters; live interview & text) shows Desmond leading with 25 percent, followed by another Republican, businessman Kevin O’Neill, at 13 percent. The fact that this study raises the possibility that two Republicans could qualify for the general election is a significant development.

Under California’s top‑two “jungle primary” system, all candidates appear on a single ballot, and the first and second place finishers regardless of party and percentage attained move on to the November general election. With nine Democrats, two Republicans, and one No Party Preference candidate in the race, the Democratic vote could split widely enough for Desmond and O’Neill to finish first and second, thus effectively shutting the Democrats out of the general election.

The leading Democrat, frequent candidate Ammar Campo-Najjar, posts 12 percent support in the Survey USA poll. When combining all candidates by party, Republicans collectively draw 38 percent in the ballot test and Democrats 37 percent. Based on these early numbers, the 48th District appears to be a genuine toss‑up and a contest likely to attract national attention as the cycle progresses.

Republicans would likely be somewhat stronger if Rep. Issa sought re-election, though the advantage would be limited. The new 48th District includes areas the Congressman does not currently represent, particularly a significant portion of Riverside County.

Supervisor Desmond’s district includes the northern portion of San Diego County that falls within the new 48th, including key population centers such as part of the city of Escondido and the San Marcos municipality. The latter entity, in particular, is where Desmond’s presence as the leading GOP candidate provides an advantage. While the current 48th does not include San Marcos – a city of nearly 100,000 residents – the new 48th does, and Supervisor Desmond already represents that community.

The 48th’s Riverside County portion, where none of the candidates from either party hold elected office, is more Democratic-leaning, due in part to the inclusion of the Palm Springs area and several desert communities.

The new California map has been framed as one that could deliver five additional seats to Democrats. However, with Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District actually becoming several points more Republican than the current configuration where he has twice won, and the GOP maintaining at least a competitive chance in District 48 with Desmond, the net gain could conceivably be closer to three seats rather than five.

The Unmentioned

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 24, 2026

Senate

In every election cycle, a previously overlooked Senate race surprises the political world by becoming highly competitive. In 2024, such a campaign occurred in Nebraska where Independent Dan Osborn became a major challenger to Sen. Deb Fischer (R).

While the Osborn campaign fizzled in the end and Sen. Fischer was re-elected with a six-point margin, the Independent, with Democratic Party support, managed to turn a race that appeared unopposed into a top challenger effort.

Right now, it appears there are three under-the-radar Senate races that could develop, two of which are in the primary cycle.

In Massachusetts, six-term Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is challenging Sen. Ed Markey (D) in the state’s Sept. 1 Democratic primary. While originally thought that Rep. Moulton was making a strange move — considering Sen. Markey had in 2020 defeated a member of the Kennedy family (then-Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy, III) in the latter’s home state, within their own party, and posted a full 10 percentage point margin — another primary challenge seemed a fool’s errand.

Yet, new polling and fundraising data suggests that the Congressman may become a serious challenger. He is one of more than a dozen Democratic younger office holders or activists challenging an elderly incumbent (Sen. Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the election), and willing to make age a campaign issue.

According to the new Federal Election Commission reports, Rep. Moulton surprisingly outraised the incumbent, $1.051 million to $811,000 during Q1 2026. For the campaign, Moulton also leads Markey in cash-on-hand, $3.3 million to $2.5 million.

Polling, while still favoring the incumbent, suggests the race could close. According to the recently released Suffolk University poll (April 9-13; 500 likely Massachusetts Democratic primary voters; live interview) Sen. Markey holds a 47-30 percent lead. While he clearly posts an advantage beyond the polling margin of error, producing a ballot test where an incumbent is under 50 percent within his own party certainly suggests underlying vulnerability.

The Massachusetts primary campaign still has a long cycle, but the early development suggests we will see some meaningful action.

If there is a developing Republican sleeper Senate race, it may be in Minnesota. The GOP has a media savvy candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, who for more than a decade was the sideline reporter for NBC Sunday Night Football. Prior to joining NBC Sports, she was a game reporter for ESPN. Originally from Minnesota, Tafoya began her broadcasting career in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, so she has been a well-known figure in the state for decades.

After announcing her candidacy in late January, Tafoya has raised over $2 million for her Senate campaign. She is already the consensus Republican candidate and the two top Democrats, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), are likely headed for a contentious primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 11.

The Flanagan-Craig race is likely to reach a boiling point at the Democratic endorsing convention. Flanagan is favored to win the endorsement, and typically Minnesota candidates do not force a primary after the state party delegates choose their candidate. In this race, however, it is likely that we will see a Democratic primary no matter who wins the official party endorsement. Therefore, the hotly contested primary will allow Tafoya to prepare for the general election and pool her expanding money through the beginning of August.

Only one poll of potential general election pairings has been released and that came in February, soon after Tafoya’s formal announcement. Emerson College publicized their survey (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota voters; multiple sampling techniques) and found Tafoya trailing Lt. Gov. Flanagan and Rep. Craig by seven and six points, respectively, with neither Democrat reaching 50 percent support.

With great unrest in the state considering the ICE controversy and the Minnesota federal grant fraud investigation that will become a top issue in November, and with Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) running for Governor in what will be a quiet race since the Republicans have little chance, the seeds may be sown for a legitimate general election campaign despite the state’s reliable Democratic voting history.

Six years ago, South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham faced a major challenge and saw approximately $145 million spent against him, but he still recorded a 10-percentage point general election victory.

This year, his fight is likely in the Republican primary where businessman Mark Lynch has already put more than $5 million of his own money into the campaign. It is unlikely that this race will develop, but Sen. Graham is taking Lynch seriously. He has already banked $11.6 million for the campaign and is actively advertising throughout the state.

Sen. Graham has issues on his political right, because he has never been a favorite of the MAGA base vote even though he has become an ardent President Trump supporter. Therefore, this is another stealth Senate contest that likely deserves attention in the closing weeks of the primary campaign.

Virginia Redistricting: Yes Vote Wins; Mississippi’s Hyde-Smith’s Tight Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Virginia

Old Dominion voters completed the redistricting referendum voting process yesterday and the “yes” position, as Democratic leaders advocated, scored a victory, but in a closer than expected 51.5 – 48.5 percent margin.

The outcome must be viewed as a Republican leadership strategic misplay. With Democrats dominating the airwaves and using a partisanship strategy, the early spending showed they had an 11:1 advantage.

Republicans countered to an extent, but their effort proved too little, too late. The closeness of the outcome suggests that a better GOP campaign might have delivered a close win.

The referendum result means the state’s congressional map is expected to shift dramatically from the current 6D–5R alignment to a projected 10D–1R configuration. The new map will take effect unless the Virginia Supreme Court, which allowed the referendum to proceed, upholds the lower court ruling that declared the legislature violated its own rules and state electoral procedure in placing the measure on the ballot. Now that the voters have spoken, it becomes even more unlikely that the high court will overturn the referendum that they allowed.

Therefore, we can expect to see Reps. Rob Wittman (R-Montross), Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach), and John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) all become general election underdogs.

The one remaining Republican seat is in southwestern Virginia. It is possible that Reps. Ben Cline (R-Botetourt) and Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) will be paired in a Republican primary. Rep. Cline could also choose to face a Democrat in an adjoining district where he would also be a general election underdog.

Earlier in the year as a result of placing the referendum on the ballot, the Virginia candidate filing deadline was moved to May 26 and the state primary to Aug. 4. Therefore, it remains to be seen what decisions the affected members make regarding where, or if, they will seek re-election.

Mississippi

A newly released April survey from Impact Research suggests that Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) may be heading into a more competitive re-election environment than expected.

The survey, conducted for the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund (April 8-12; 500 likely Mississippi general election voters; live interview & text), sees Sen. Hyde-Smith leading Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom, who won the Democratic nomination in March, by a narrow 42-39 percent margin.

Perhaps the most concerning data point for the Senator is her favorability rating. While President Trump scores a personal favorability index of 55:43 within this polling universe, Sen. Hyde-Smith scores a poor 35:55, with a “very unfavorable” data point of 42. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) is also in negative territory with a 43:52 index, but his standing is obviously not as challenging as those reported for the Senator.

The result is surprising since the Senator fared well in the March Republican primary, scoring 81 percent of the GOP vote and obviously winning the nomination outright. In her two general election victories, one a special vote conducted after she was appointed to replace resigned Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in 2018, she averaged a 53.8 victory percentage.

For Democrats to put the Senate majority in play this cycle, they must broaden the competitive map. Should polling like this continue, national Democratic leaders and outside groups who support liberal candidates may begin directing significant resources toward Mississippi.

According to the Q1 Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure reports, Colom only has raised $1.6 million and held just under $560,000 in his campaign account, far under the dollar quantity he will need to run an effective statewide campaign.

Conversely, Sen. Hyde-Smith posted just over $5 million raised with a cash-on-hand figure of $2.46 million. Expect these financial numbers for both candidates to grow exponentially.

It is likely that a Republican-aligned poll will soon be released presenting more favorable numbers for Sen. Hyde-Smith. If such polling does not emerge, it may indicate that her internal data aligns with the Impact Research findings.

There is always an unexpected Senate race that comes to the forefront in the general election. We will soon see if Mississippi hosts the 2026 surprise campaign.

Michigan Matters

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 20, 2026

Senate

New polling suggests the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is evolving into a dead heat among three participants all with equivalent voter support and campaign financing.

The open Senate primary, which won’t be decided until Aug. 4, is already white hot. The Data for Progress research organization released the results of their latest survey (for the Zeteo news site; April 2-8; 515 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; online) and found a literal three-way tie, 23-22-22 percent, among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Emerson College soon after released their new poll of the Michigan Senate race (April 11-13; 519 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while detecting a tie for first place (El-Sayed 24 percent; McMorrow 24 percent), Rep. Stevens lags behind with only 13 percent support within their sampling universe. The latter result is obviously a major difference when compared with the former and depicts the volatility in the Michigan Democratic campaign.

Fundraising is sizzling, as well. The latest Federal Election Commission reports are public for the 1st Quarter of 2026 and we see Sen. McMorrow having raised $8.6 million with $3.7 million cash-on-hand. Dr. El-Sayed accumulated a comparable $7.6 million, with $2.5 million remaining to be spent. Rep. Stevens has attracted $6.8 million in campaign receipts, with $3.0 million in her account.

The person with the most to gain from what promises to be a long and hard-fought Democratic primary is consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers.

The Emerson College survey (452 likely Michigan Republican primary voters) posts the former seven-term Congressman to a whopping 55-2-2 percent lead over dentist Kent Benham and businessman Andrew Kamal so Rogers has little to fear from a primary challenge. This means, among other advantages, that he can hold the vast majority of his financial assets until the general election.

The former Congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee was also the Republican Senate nominee in 2024. Far exceeding his polling numbers, Rogers fell just 19,006 votes short (from a total turnout of over 5.5 million voters) against then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin who was billed as being one of the best Democratic candidates in the country and certainly a prolific fundraiser.

In the 2024 campaign, Rogers was badly outspent as Slotkin had a better than 4:1 expenditure advantage, but vote margin between the two was only three-tenths of one percentage point. Outside spending from Rogers’ allies helped narrow the spending difference, but Slotkin maintained a significant resource edge throughout the campaign.

Being outspent is likely not his problem this year. Rogers has raised $7.6 million through the first quarter of 2026 and holds $4.2 million in his campaign account. He will continue to raise funds through the primary season and will likely have a huge short term cash advantage over his eventual Democratic opponent no matter which one of the three finally secures the party nomination.

The other Rogers advantage is the three Democrats will be forced to move far to the left in order to secure the party nomination in the plurality primary. Therefore, it is possible that Rogers could be in a position on the day after the Aug. 4 primary to be facing an opponent in a short general election cycle who must start from ground zero on fundraising, since it is clear that all three contenders will be forced to spend what they have to secure the party nomination, and hold some positions well beyond the Michigan ideological mainstream.

The Wolverine State is one of the top places that will determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. With the political situation in the Democratic primary and Rogers likely beginning the general election in a favorable position opposite his eventual opponent, the Michigan race will be the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a Democratic seat. Being successful here would virtually clinch the GOP’s goal of continuing as the Senate’s majority party.

With Democrats being in favorable position to convert North Carolina, other state races significantly come in to play: Sen. Susan Collins (R) is in another difficult campaign for re-election in Maine, former three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is back for another attempt in Ohio, and with potentially strong developing Democratic challengers in Alaska and Texas, a GOP victory in Michigan becomes almost mandatory for Senate Republicans to maintain their majority status.

Cornyn vs. Paxton: Dead Heat

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 17, 2026

Senate

Two new polls were released in the red-hot Texas US Senate Republican runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton and the results are identical.

Peek Insights conducted its survey for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a Super PAC that supports Sen. Cornyn (April 6-9; 800 likely Texas voters), and the co/efficient polling firm, in an independent release (April 11-14; 1,143 likely Texas Republican runoff voters; text and live interview), each find Sen. Cornyn leading AG Paxton by a narrow 44-43 percent.

The surveys provide underlying good news for Sen. Cornyn, however. In the primary, polling consistently found Paxton leading the race. In fact, from the final six publicly released pre-primary polls, the Attorney General led the Senator by an average of seven percentage points. In the actual election, Cornyn topped Paxton by one percentage point, meaning the pollsters underestimated the Senator’s Republican primary position by eight full points.

Therefore, if a similar under-counting of Cornyn’s support is again present in the latest data, it is possible that the Senator’s lead is greater than the one percentage point that both pollsters currently detect.

Included in co/efficient’s data release are their crosstabs, which reveal some interesting points.

While the two candidates are virtually even in support among the likely May 26 runoff voters, the co/efficient segmentation allows us to see where each candidate can target and improve.

Possibly the most surprising finding is that Paxton enjoys a 14-point advantage among self-identified Christians. Considering Paxton’s well-publicized extra-marital affairs that led to his wife filing for divorce, one might expect his personal behavior to be a negative factor within this group.

Therefore, expect the Cornyn campaign to improve the Senator’s standing in this sector as the campaign moves toward culmination in late May.

While most segments show the candidates at parity as does the actual ballot test, the two candidates do enjoy advantages within certain groups pertaining to turnout propensity.

Among the respondents who have voted in four of the last four and three of the last four elections, obviously those with the highest vote propensity, Paxton claims a four-point advantage. Sen. Cornyn posts a three-point edge among those with moderate voting propensity — the two of four categories — while Paxton has the advantage among those most likely not to vote.

The other traditionally high-vote propensity group, those over 65 years of age, favor Cornyn by four points. The Senator also has the edge with those aged 18 through 54, but Paxton posts a double-digit advantage within the 55-64 age sector.

The fact that most of the age segments favor Cornyn by an average of four points, yet Paxton dominates the 55-64 group by 19 points fails to make sense. Therefore, it is probable that his very large margin is an anomaly.

The runoff will prove to be a battle between the urban and rural areas. In the primary election, Cornyn won in the state’s largest metro areas, meaning Harris County (Houston), the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex, San Antonio-Austin I-35 corridor, and the populous region along the Mexican border then north to the Corpus Christi area. Paxton was strong throughout the state’s rural areas both in East and West Texas.

While a great deal of money and campaign time will be spent between now and the May 26 election, with heavy emphasis on the early voting process scheduled during the May 18-22 period, the winner will be the candidate whose campaign best energizes its primary election supporters to come back and vote again in the runoff election. Typically, Texas runoff elections turn out about two-thirds of the number who voted in the primary.

May will be an interesting month for vulnerable Republican Senators. Just before the Texas runoff, Louisiana Republican voters will largely determine Sen. Bill Cassidy’s fate in the May 16 partisan primary vote. Some polls show Cassidy trailing both of his Republican challengers — Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) and state Treasurer John Fleming. Therefore, the Louisiana and Texas intra-party elections means late May will host a very intriguing political period.