Category Archives: Polling

Kansas Now In Play

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Senate

One of the Democratic Party’s 2026 objectives in its bid to regain the Senate majority is to push the maximum number of Republican seats into the competitive realm.

The death of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has placed that typically safe GOP seat into competitive mode, as have the credible Democratic candidacies that are emerging in Alaska and Iowa.

Party strategists have also taken the unusual step of persuading three Democratic nominees – in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota – to withdraw in favor of coalition aligned Independents, each a former Democrat or clear liberal ideologue, in hopes of consolidating enough support to tighten those races.

The party leaders’ similar quest fell short in Montana, where Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead declined to step aside for former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an Independent.

The latest state to show signs of competitiveness is Kansas. A new Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 12-16; 800 likely voters) finds Democrat Adam Hamilton holding a narrow 44-43 percent edge over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas polling finding a Democrat within striking distance in September is not unusual, however, and recent history suggests caution in interpreting such numbers.

Certainly, this is not the first time in recent memory where we have seen Kansas polling data putting the Democratic nominee on the same footing as their Republican opponent only to see the GOP prevail by about 10 percentage points on election day.

Sen. Marshall himself faced similar polling volatility in 2020. That September, he led in two polls, trailed in two, and was tied in two more. He ultimately won the open Senate race with a 53-42 percent margin.

The pattern was even more pronounced in 2014, when four term incumbent Pat Roberts (R) appeared to be in serious trouble. This campaign started as a three-way contest among Sen. Roberts, the Democratic nominee, and a strong Independent, Greg Orman, who would eventually narrow the race to a choice between he and the incumbent.

In September of that year, Orman led in six of eight polls and the two were tied in a ninth. Roberts nevertheless prevailed by the same 53-42 percent spread as Marshall would six years later.

Therefore, seeing a Kansas Senate race close in the month of September before a regular election is nothing new. It is important to remember, that regardless of polling reports, the last time a Democrat was elected as a Jayhawk State US Senator came in 1932.

Democrats, however, have fared better in gubernatorial contests, winning seven races since 1932, most recently with current two term Gov. Laura Kelly. Kathleen Sebelius also won two terms in 2002 and 2006. Over that same period, Republicans have elected 13 governors.

Hamilton, a Methodist minister, has run a credible campaign and performed well financially. According to Federal Election Commission pre primary filings through July 15, he raised $4.2 million and reported $1.7 million cash on hand. Sen. Marshall raised $6.2 million over the same period and entered the late summer stretch with nearly $5.4 million in his campaign account. A noticeable uptick in spending from the Senator’s campaign will occur in the coming days and weeks.

It is probable that both the Kansas and South Carolina Senate races will soon show a stronger Republican trend and they will likely exit the competitive board as election day approaches. For now, however, each warrants monitoring in case signs of a long shot upset begin to crystallize.

The Democrats’ Independent Ploy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.

The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.

Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lieutenant Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the US Senate.

In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (Aug. 11-13; 500 likely Idaho voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18 percent lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (Aug. 16-19; 608 likely Idaho voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32 percent.

Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (July 28-30; 1,213 likely Idaho general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21 percent.

Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.

Montana

Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2 primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Alme.

Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.

In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.

The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Montana general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46 percent, Bodnar follows at 30 percent and Bankhead at 15 percent. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46 percent each.

The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22 percent advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.

Nebraska

Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.

Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59 percent of the vote.

South Dakota

The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.

A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (Aug. 13–17; 500 likely South Dakota general election voters) showing Bengs pulling into a 44-44 percent tie with Sen. Rounds.

It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.

Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 31, 2026

Entering the final month of the primary election calendar, three Democratic nomination contests will be decided in tomorrow’s plurality elections. Sen. Ed Markey (D) appears well positioned to defeat his intra party challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), who is risking his seat to pursue the Senate race, thereby creating an open 6th District race.

In the Boston area, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) is facing a credible Democratic challenger in his 8th District battle for renomination.

Senate

In this late stage US Senate primary, we reach the culmination point of a contest that began a year ago when six-term Rep. Moulton surprisingly announced that he would challenge veteran Sen. Ed Markey.

Six years earlier, when facing a high profile primary opponent, Sen. Markey defeated then Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by 10 points, despite beginning the race significantly behind in early polling. At the time of the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Markey had already won two statewide elections, 18 US House contests, and two races for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Heading into tomorrow’s vote, Markey has won 23 Bay State elections, translating into 52 consecutive years in public office.

Polling indicates that Markey is in strong position to win again. The University of New Hampshire Research Center’s June Bay State Poll (June 18–23; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) showed Markey leading Moulton 41-35 percent. The university’s most recent survey (Aug. 20–24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found the Senator’s advantage expanding dramatically to 63-28 percent. Three additional surveys conducted between the two UNH polls showed Markey averaging roughly 55 percent support.

Both candidates mounted serious fundraising efforts. Sen. Markey reported receipts of just over $8 million, while Rep. Moulton raised more than $6 million.

Though the race has drawn limited national attention, Moulton has campaigned aggressively and adopted more liberal positions to appeal to the party’s sizable leftwing faction.

Rep. Moulton is a credible challenger, but the Markey legacy, built over decades of electoral success, remains a formidable barrier. Based on available polling and public indicators, Sen. Markey appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.

MA-6

With Rep. Moulton running statewide, his northeast Massachusetts 6th Congressional District – stretching from Boston to the New Hampshire border and from Andover eastward to the Atlantic Ocean – is open for the first time since the 1978 election. The contest will probably produce a winner who narrowly lost a congressional primary eight years ago.

Former Andover Selectman and ex Biden Administration official Dan Koh appears to hold a discernible advantage over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D-Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and two additional candidates. According to a wrap up Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 20–23; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview), Mr. Koh holds a 35-20-12-8 percent advantage over Nguyen, Beccia, and Belsito, respectively.

In 2018, Koh lost the 3rd District Democratic primary to Lori Trahan by just 145 votes. Trahan went on to win the general election and is now unopposed for renomination to a fifth term.

MA-8

The other Massachusetts race of note is the Democratic primary challenge to 13-term Rep. Lynch in a district with a distinguished political lineage. Two US Presidents and one of the most famous House Speakers have represented this Boston-anchored seat.

Before his election to the Senate and later the Presidency, John F. Kennedy served three terms in this congressional district. After leaving the White House, President John Quincy Adams returned to Massachusetts and won eight elections to this district, serving in the House until his death in 1848. Tip O’Neill succeeded Kennedy, represented the district for 34 years, and reigned for a decade as Speaker of the House.

This year, attorney and former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath has assembled a notable support coalition that includes teachers’ unions, the Boston Globe, and his former boss, ex Gov. Deval Patrick. Roath posted a stronger fundraising total – just under $1.3 million – than Rep. Lynch, who raised $910,000, though the Congressman entered the final week with a $400,000 cash on hand advantage.

Roath touts a large grassroots operation and tomorrow will reveal whether his extensive precinct organization can produce a major upset. Rep. Lynch is not viewed as one of the more liberal members of the Massachusetts delegation, so the contest bears watching, particularly in a cycle that has already seen 11 US Representatives lose renomination. Even so, the odds still favor Rep. Lynch to prevail in his quest for a 14th term.

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

The New England Trio

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 27, 2026

Primaries

Wrapping up primary season, we come to the New England states, where three of the final four primaries will be held early next month. Delaware is the fourth state yet to nominate candidates for the November election, and its primary will occur even later than the New England trio.

Massachusetts voters will cast ballots on Sept. 1, New Hampshire holds its primary on the 8th, and Rhode Island follows on the 9th. Delawareans won’t vote until Sept. 15, but party endorsing conventions have effectively rendered the primary a pro forma exercise.

In preparation for the upcoming contests, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center fielded polls across the three New England states to provide a snapshot of the key nomination races. The UNH Survey Center routinely conducts surveys throughout the region.

In Massachusetts, Tuesday’s primary features a Democratic challenge to Sen. Ed Markey, along with an open race in the 6th Congressional District – the seat Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) is risking to challenge the Senator.

According to the UNH Bay State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online and text), Sen. Markey holds a commanding 63-28 percent lead over Rep. Moulton and appears well positioned to secure renomination and a third full Senate term. Markey was first elected to the House in 1976 and served 36 years before winning his Senate seat.

The Global Strategy Group surveyed the 6th Congressional District primary electorate (July 30-Aug. 2; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) and found former Biden Administration official and ex-Andover Selectman Dan Koh, who lost the 3rd District 2018 Democratic primary by just 145 votes, leading this campaign with 34 percent voter preference. Crypto currency executive John Beccia follows with 15 percent, and state Rep. Tran Nguyen (D-Andover) is close behind at 14 percent.

Turning to New Hampshire, the Granite State Poll shows a significant shift in the Senate campaign. The previous overall leader, Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), has lost some momentum. According to the survey results (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters; online), Rep. Pappas leads scientist Karishma Manzur by a reduced 47-34 percent margin – the first time he has fallen below 50 percent in any of the 10 publicly released Democratic primary polls.

Even more striking, when paired with likely Republican nominee John E. Sununu, Pappas trails 45-43 percent, putting New Hampshire in play for November and offering Republicans a potential national boost.

While the 2nd Congressional District appears set for a general election re-match between freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the open 1st District features hot primaries for both parties.

Among Democrats, the Granite State Poll (Aug. 20-24; 463 likely Democratic voters; online) shows former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan leading ex‑Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – by a 24-19 percent margin in a seven‑candidate field. Though support levels are low, both candidates appear viable heading into the vote on Sept. 8.

On the Republican side, the 1st District contest is even tighter. Among 464 likely GOP primary voters surveyed, business owner and former state party vice chair Hollie Noveletsky leads auto dealer Anthony DiLorenzo by a narrow 28-25 percent split. New Hampshire’s 1st CD is one of the nation’s most competitive, ensuring a hard‑fought general election.

Finally, in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial race, Massachusetts‑based Emerson College released new data (Aug. 21-22; 528 likely Democratic primary voters; mixed sampling techniques) again showing Gov. Dan McKee trailing badly against Helena Foulkes, who narrowly lost to him four years ago. Foulkes leads 45-30 percent, consistent with polling throughout the cycle. Therefore, it becomes difficult to see a feasible path for Gov. McKee to win renomination on Sept. 9.

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

New Hampshire’s Sour Mood

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 21, 2026

New Hampshire Electorate

To see an interactive version of this map, go to:
Dave’s Redistricting Map.

As the Sept. 8 New Hampshire statewide primary approaches, St. Anselm College has released an extensive survey of the Granite State electorate – and the clearest point of consensus among respondents is that they essentially dislike everyone.

Republicans fare worse than Democrats, likely because the sample includes more Democratic primary voters, but Democratic candidates are not in positive territory either. Almost every tested figure in both parties posts strongly negative approval ratings.

The Iran War is weighing heavily on Republicans: 60 percent of respondents say they are less likely to vote for a GOP candidate while the conflict continues. Democrats face their own drag, with 54 percent saying they are less likely to support a candidate endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America.

The St. Anselm online poll, conducted Aug. 17-18, surveyed 1,411 likely midterm voters. Of these, 733 are self-identified Democrats or Independents planning to vote in the Democratic primary, and 678 are Republicans or Independents choosing to vote in the GOP primary. Regionally, 710 respondents reside in the eastern 1st Congressional District and 701 in the western 2nd District.

Voters express deep pessimism about the direction of the country and the state. Only 28 percent believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction, compared to 65 percent who say it is on the wrong track. New Hampshire fares slightly better but still negative: 31 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 52 percent believe it is on the wrong track.

President Trump’s job approval stands at a woeful 37:62. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) is barely above water at 50:46. Two Democratic House members, Rep. Chris Pappas (D Manchester), the likely open seat Democratic Senate nominee, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D Nashua), were also tested. Rep. Pappas began a downward trend at 44:51, while Goodlander posts a narrow 45:43 positive rating.

The candidates fare even worse. Republican Senate contenders John E. Sununu and Scott Brown register 38:54 and 30:47, respectively. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington, the likely nominee against Gov. Ayotte, is similarly upside down at 26:37.

In the open Senate race with incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) retiring, Rep. Pappas leads former Sen. Sununu 48-41 percent and posts a larger 49-37 percent advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Brown. In the GOP primary, Sununu would defeat Brown 54-24 percent.

The open 1st District Democratic primary appears headed for a photo finish. Though the field includes multiple candidates, the race has effectively narrowed to former Obama Administration official Maura Sullivan and ex-Portsmouth City Councilmember Stefany Shaheen, daughter of Sen. Shaheen. The poll shows Sullivan holding a slight 26-24 percent edge.

On the Republican side, businessman Anthony DiLorenzo leads business owner Hollie Noveletsky 30-17 percent. The 1st District is traditionally one of the nation’s most competitive seats, and the short general election window will likely produce a heated contest, though the Democratic nominee begins with at least a modest advantage.

In the Governor’s race, incumbent Ayotte leads Warmington 49-38 percent. Turning to the 2nd District congressional campaign, a rematch between Rep. Goodlander and Republican Lily Tang Williams, the Congresswoman holds a 50-35 percent advantage.

President Trump has lost New Hampshire in all three of his elections, so his continued decline in the state is unsurprising. More notable is the deterioration in former Sen. Sununu’s standing against Rep. Pappas, given the Sununu family (Gov. John Sununu; Gov. Chris Sununu; US Representative & Senator John E. Sununu) and their long record of New Hampshire electoral success.

A clue to the poll’s ideological tilt appears in the “most important issue” question. In most surveys, the economy and affordability dominate. Here, the top response is elections and protecting democracy – an issue typically emphasized by the most liberal Democratic voters. Its prominence suggests a leftward sample skew.

Even with the skew, the numbers still point toward Democratic advantages in nearly every major New Hampshire race except Governor. Whether Republicans can rebound in the remaining weeks will depend on their ability to reverse perceptions on the economy and affordability – areas where they traditionally perform better, but not in this survey.

Close Races to Watch:
Michigan & Minnesota

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 24, 2026

Questions are surfacing about whether the Democratic Socialist victories seen in the recent New York and Colorado primaries signal a broader trend or are simply localized outcomes. The upcoming US Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota will offer clearer evidence.

Michigan

In Michigan, the Aug. 4 Democratic primary features a highly competitive contest between Democratic Socialist Abdul El‑Sayed, the former director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services, and Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Earlier, the race was a three‑way contest including state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D‑Royal Oak). On July 5, Sen. McMorrow suspended her statewide campaign indicating that she had no viable victory path. Her withdrawal came too late to remove her name from the ballot; therefore, McMorrow will attract some percentage of the vote, which could affect the final outcome.

Two recent surveys suggest El‑Sayed is opening a substantial lead despite most Democratic establishment figures publicly backing Rep. Stevens. Tulchin Research (July 13-15; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 56-40 percent. A Data for Progress poll conducted in a similar period (July 10-14; 614 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) finds a comparable result: El‑Sayed leading 54-41 percent.

Former seven‑term Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by three‑tenths of a percentage point, will easily secure the Republican nomination. Conventional political analysis suggests Rogers might prefer facing El‑Sayed, believing he could frame him as too far left, thus providing an opportunity to gain support among Independents. While general election polling is close in both matchups, El‑Sayed currently performs slightly better than Stevens.

Rogers trailed Slotkin in most 2024 polling until the final two weeks, and his standing at this stage of the 2026 cycle is stronger than it was two years ago as is his campaign war chest. A Republican victory in Michigan would likely secure continued GOP control of the Senate, making the Aug. 4th Democratic primary outcome even more consequential.

Minnesota

In Minnesota, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the Democratic Socialist candidate. She has support not only from ideological allies such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I‑VT), Elizabeth Warren (D‑MA) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez (D‑NY), but also from the state’s Democratic establishment, including Gov. Tim Walz, retiring Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D‑Minneapolis), and former Sen. Al Franken.

Her opponent, Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), has a significant fundraising advantage, raising twice as much as Flanagan and holding a $5 million to $1.5 million cash‑on‑hand edge. Rep. Craig’s support comes heavily from labor unions coupled with a long list of endorsements from state legislators and local officials.

The latest poll for this campaign, from SurveyUSA for KSTP Channel 5 in St. Paul (July 15-20; 513 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters), finds the two contenders locked in a dead heat tie at 40-40 percent. In late June, Public Policy Polling tested the race (June 25-26; 604 likely Minnesota Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) and posted Flanagan to a 43-36 percent advantage.

Just before PPP went into the field, SurveyUSA, as part of their polling series for KSTP, sampled a different 513 likely Democratic primary voters over the June 11-16 period. Comparing the two Survey USA polls yielded a Flanagan net gain of five percentage points from June to July to bring the Lieutenant Governor into the tied result that the latter S-USA study reflected.

The Minnesota primary has a week longer primary period, which could help Rep. Craig because, she has a financial advantage. As is the case in any primary, turnout will determine the outcome, and with the type of support that Flanagan has, she might have a grassroots edge.

These campaigns will provide insight not only into the strength of the Democratic Socialist movement but also into general‑election positioning, since in both states the Republican nominees are effectively set.

The presumed Republican nominee is former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya. She trails both Flanagan and Craig, but conventional wisdom holds that her best chance to make the general election competitive would be against Lt. Gov. Flanagan. In either pairing, Democrats currently hold the advantage, though Tafoya is already within the polling margin of error.

In the coming weeks, the Michigan and Minnesota primaries will yield valuable data about the trajectory of the Democratic Socialist movement and help refine expectations for the general election landscape.

Arizona Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 20, 2026

Beginning with this election cycle, Arizona has permanently shifted its primary from early August to late July; therefore, tomorrow marks the close of the state’s 2026 primary voting period.

Tomorrow’s election features a Republican gubernatorial contest where the winner will challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). Congressional Districts 1, 2, 5, and 6 also host major action.

Each race synopsis below begins with listing the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation and the 2024 election result.

Governor – Katie Hobbs
DRA Partisan Lean – State of Arizona – 50.1R – 47.9D
• 2022 Governor Result: Hobbs: 50.3 – 49.6 percent

Gov. Hobbs is unopposed in the Democratic primary, while the Republican side features four candidates. The GOP battle, however, appears to be a runaway for Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who holds a commanding advantage over Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) and two minor candidates.

The most recent poll, from Next Gen P (July 8-9; 1,707 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online), sees Rep. Biggs leading Rep. Schweikert by a lopsided 66-10 percent margin. The polling averages similarly find Biggs holding an average 48-point lead when paired with Rep. Schweikert.

For the general election, another close result is expected.

AZ-1 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.5D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Schweikert: 51.9 – 48.1 percent

The 1st District contest is the marquee primary for both parties, with each featuring a highly competitive nomination battle. On the Republican side, former NFL placekicker Jay Feeley – boosted by President Trump’s endorsement – appears to be the favorite. Feeley has been outspent, however. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission disclosure report, he has expended just over $1.7 million in his campaign, while self funding businessman John Trobrough has spent slightly more than $3.3 million. State Rep. Joseph Chaplik’s (R Scottsdale) disclosure reveals expenditures of just over $475,000, yet he held the early polling advantage.

Democrats are also facing a competitive race. Somewhat unexpectedly, party leaders are coalescing around former news anchor Marlene Galan Woods, even though Dr. Amish Shah defeated her in the 2024 primary and then came within two percentage points of unseating Rep. Schweikert. Galan Woods has slightly outspent Dr. Shah in this campaign, $1.6 million to $1.4 million.

AZ-2 – Rep. Eli Crane

DRA Partisan Lean: 53.3R – 44.4D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Crane: 54.5 – 45.5 percent

This year’s 2nd District general election will feature a rematch between Rep. Crane, who is seeking a third term, and Jonathan Nez, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former Navajo Nation president. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries.

The 2026 campaign is likely to be even more robust than their 2024 contest, when the two combined for more than $12 million in spending. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports, Rep. Crane and Nez have again raised substantial sums and currently hold $2.8 million and $1.9 million in their campaign accounts, respectively. The race is expected to be competitive, continuing the intensity of their prior matchup.

AZ-5 – Open Seat

DRA Partisan Lean: 58.5R – 39.6D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Biggs: 60.4 – 39.6 percent

Rep. Andy Biggs’s gubernatorial run has left this safe Republican seat open, producing a primary that initially featured 1st District candidate Jay Feeley and former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Feeley’s move to the 1st District, after trailing Lamb badly in early polling, appeared to leave the former Sheriff in control of the race. A sexual oriented scandal, however, has significantly damaged Lamb, who nonetheless retains former President Trump’s endorsement.

Chandler construction company owner Daniel Keenan has mounted a credible, self funded challenge, outspending Lamb $1.6 million to just under $1 million. Keenan has leaned heavily on the Lamb scandal in his campaign messaging.

Recent polling shows a major split: Remington Research Group (July 5-7; 650 likely Republican primary voters) finds Keenan edging ahead of Lamb, 42-40 percent, suggesting a toss-up race rating. Pulse Decision Science (June 29-July 1; 400 likely Republican primary voters), however, reports a very different picture, placing Lamb at a dominant 61-27 percent advantage.

This has become one of the election cycle’s more intriguing Republican primaries. Tomorrow’s winner will be well positioned for the general election.

AZ-6 – Rep. Juan Ciscomani

DRA Partisan Lean: 50.9R – 47.1D
• 2024 Congressional Result: Rep. Ciscomani: 50.0 – 47.5 percent

Both party nominations are settled, as Rep. Ciscomani and retired Marine Corps veteran JoAnna Mendoza are unopposed for the Republican and Democratic nominations, respectively. Since the 2021 Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission members drew the new 6th District, the area has consistently produced highly competitive general election results.

The 2026 Ciscomani–Mendoza rematch is expected to continue the close-election pattern. The Tucson-anchored AZ-6 race is again positioned to become a nationally watched contest that will attract substantial outside support for both candidates. Another hard fought campaign appears likely, with a close finish again expected.

Close Race Watch: Pennsylvania

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 17, 2026

PA District sizes & locations are approximate representations. Click on the image or here to see full interactive map at Dave’s Redistricting App.

The Pennsylvania US House races will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress. Of the state’s 17 House races, four are majority determinative, and each feature a vulnerable Republican incumbent seeking re-election.

PA-1

Five-term US Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) is perennially vulnerable. He’s in one of three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris yet elected a Republican to the House. Rep. Fitzpatrick has been able to score victory after victory in his Bucks County-anchored CD averaging 54.7 percent of the vote over his five elections, far exceeding the district’s partisan lean (51.8D – 46.3R – Dave’s Redistricting App calculations).

Prior to Rep. Fitzpatrick initially claiming the seat in the 2016 election, the Congressman’s brother, Michael Fitzpatrick, had held the seat for four non-consecutive terms. After spending 10 years on the Bucks County Commission, Michael Fitzpatrick was elected to the House in the 2004 election but was defeated for re-election in 2006. He would then regain the seat in 2010 and serve three consecutive terms. He did not seek re-election in 2016, yielding to his brother. Michael Fitzpatrick passed away from cancer in 2020. The Fitzpatrick family has a strong history in Bucks County politics.

This year, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick faces another strong candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won the Democratic primary with 64.9 percent of the vote. According to the latest June 30 Federal Election Commission disclosure reports, Harvie has raised just over $2 million with an excess of $794,000 cash-on-hand post primary. Rep. Fitzpatrick is in a commanding financial position, however, with over $6.3 million in his campaign account.

The 1st District will host another repeat campaign in 2026. Rep. Fitzpatrick is again favored for re-election, but a potentially adverse political climate for Republicans at the time of the election again puts this seat in the vulnerable category.

PA-7

The Keystone State’s 7th District, which is anchored in the Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton area, is like the 1st CD in that we always see close elections. In various iterations of this CD, the Republican candidates, former Reps. Pat Toomey, who would later become a US Senator, Charlie Dent, and now freshman Ryan Mackenzie (R-Lower Macungie), have won a combined 11 of the past 14 congressional elections.

The last four, however, with former Rep. Susan Wild (D) winning three times, have been very close. In those four campaigns, the winning candidate has never exceeded 53.5 percent with an average of 51.7 percent. In 2024, Rep. Mackenzie unseated Wild with 50.5 percent of the vote.

This year, former Rep. Wild did not return to seek a rematch. The new Democratic nominee is former Pennsylvania Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, who won a four-way Democratic primary with 41.0 percent of the vote. In the first post-primary published poll, from the Democratic firm GBAO (June 29-July 2; 550 likely PA-7 voters), Brooks claimed a 47-43 percent lead over Rep. Mackenzie.

With a Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) calculated partisan lean of 50.2D – 47.5R, the 7th District will again return a very close finish in November.

According to the new FEC financial disclosure reports, Rep. Mackenzie holds a $2.9 million cash-on-hand advantage over Brooks’ $1.08 million.

PA-8

To the northeast of the 7th District lies the Scranton-anchored 8th CD where freshman US Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township) seeks a second term after defeating six-term US Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) in 2024. The Congressman’s 2026 Democratic opponent is Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Both Rep. Bresnahan and Mayor Cognetti were unopposed in their respective primaries, but 20,000 more Democrats than Republicans voted in the May nominating election.

Though the 8th CD slightly leans Democratic (DRA partisan lean: 50.0D – 47.9R), the district is more Republican than the other eastern PA districts. In fact, President Trump has run strongly here, carrying the seat in all three of his elections and posting a 54-45 percent win here in 2024 under the present district lines. Among the four competitive Pennsylvania US House districts, the 8th has perennially been President Trump’s strongest performer.

This will be another expensive race. The new FEC reports (reporting deadline: June 30) find Rep. Bresnahan with $2.6 million in his campaign account and Mayor Cognetti holding the advantage with $3.4 million, both taking advantage of having unopposed primaries.

Two Democratic pollsters, Lake Research Partners and Impact Research, conducted mid-June surveys and each largely arrived at the same conclusion. Each showed a basic dead heat with Mayor Cognetti leading by two and one percentage points, with both candidates scoring in the high 40s.

PA-10

The Harrisburg/York-anchored 10th District features a rematch between seven-term US Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg) and former television news anchor Janelle Stelson. The 2024 election ended with a close Perry victory of 50.5 – 49.3 percent while President Trump was scoring a 52.0 – 46.8 percent here win over Kamala Harris.

Of the four competitive PA districts, the 10th is the only one where the DRA partisan lean favors the Republicans (50.7R – 46.8D). The 2022 court drawn redistricting map changed this district from one that heavily favored a conservative Republican to a politically marginal seat anchored in the state’s capital city of Harrisburg.

The 2024 race featured heavy spending with Stelson outspending the incumbent, $6.4 million to $4.6 million. According to the new FEC reports, Stelson again has the cash-on-hand advantage, $4.5 million to $2.8 million. Once more, we can expect heavy outside spending from both parties to attempt to influence the outcome.

The negatives for both candidates are that the Congressman, a former chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is more conservative than the average constituent, and that Stelson, who anchored a television news desk in Lancaster, outside of the 10th District, is a carpetbagger.

Expect another close outcome in this highly competitive central Pennsylvania congressional district. Together, these four tight PA congressional districts could determine which party wins the House majority.