Category Archives: Cities

42-Year Incumbent Rep. Kaptur to Run Again; No OH-6 Special Election; NC Filing Deadline Approaches; Jackson Lee Trails in Houston Mayoral Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023

House

Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo)

OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again — US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is Dec. 20 for the March 19 primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made.

Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43 percent victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson — Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (Dec. 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19 plurality primary will likely decide Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37 percent margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election.

Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter.

North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements — The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the Dec. 15 candidate filing deadline is fast approaching, and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.

Tuesday saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November.

In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44 percent for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Trails in New Mayoral Poll — Survey USA conducted a poll for the University of Houston pertaining to Texas’ largest city’s mayoral campaign (Nov. 13-18; 1,120 Houston adults; 971 registered voters; 805 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) as we approach the Dec. 9 runoff election. The ballot test is breaking 42-35 percent in favor of state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), the second-longest serving member of the Texas legislature having been initially elected in 1972. US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who qualified in second place for the runoff, continues to trail Whitmire as the campaign begins to conclude.

According to the S-USA poll, crime is the overwhelming issue of concern. From the tested respondent pool a whopping 63 percent say they don’t feel safe walking around the city during the day.

Trump on Ballot in Minnesota; Incumbent Challenged in AR-3; Virginia Final Numbers; Houston Mayoral Runoff Set

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 10, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: State Supreme Court OKs Trump for Primary Ballot — Ruling on a 14th Amendment lawsuit attempting to bar former President Donald Trump from the ballot saying he incited an “insurrection” even though he or no January 6-convicted defendant was even charged with insurrection against the Constitution; therefor, the Minnesota State Supreme Court ruled Wednesday that he will be placed on the Republican primary ballot. The high court left open the possibility to hear, however, another lawsuit for the general election should Trump win the Republican presidential nomination.

Similar lawsuits are also alive in Colorado and Michigan.

In dismissing the challenge, Minnesota Chief Justice Natalie Hudson wrote that the Republican primary is, “an internal party election to serve internal party purposes … [and] there is no statute that prohibits a major political party from placing on the presidential nomination primary ballot, or sending delegates to the national convention supporting, a candidate who is ineligible to hold office.”

The plaintiffs indicated they are “disappointed” with the ruling but underscored that the state Supreme Court has left the door open for a perhaps different ruling later in the cycle relating to the general election.

House

AR-3: Rep. Womack to Face GOP Primary Challenge — Yesterday, Arkansas state Sen. Clint Penzo (R-Springdale) announced that he will challenge seven-term Congressman Steve Womack (R-Rogers). During his tenure in the House, Womack served briefly as chairman of the House Budget Committee. Immediately, in a show of support, Sen. Tom Cotton (R), Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R), and US Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro) announced their endorsements of the incumbent. It remains to be seen if this challenge becomes a serious effort. The Arkansas primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

States

Virginia: Numbers Becoming Final — The final votes are being reported in the Virginia legislative elections, and the party division numbers look to be 21-19 in the Democrats’ favor for the incoming state Senate, and a 51-49 Democratic majority in the House of Delegates. The final numbers are slightly better for Republicans, but Democrats now control both houses in the General Assembly instead of just one.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Set, Outgoing Mayor Endorses — Gov. Greg Abbott (R) confirmed that the Houston mayoral runoff election will be held on Dec. 9. The runoff winner will earn a four-year term as America’s fourth largest city’s chief executive. Immediately after the election, outgoing Mayor Sylvester Turner (D), ineligible to seek a third term, endorsed US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston). She placed second to state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) in Tuesday’s initial election. Neither candidate received majority support to secure the election, hence the need for a head-to-head second vote.

Strong Democrat Showing in Virginia; Kentucky, Mississippi Governors Re-Elected; Ohio Voters Pass Two Major Initiatives; Houston, New York Election Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023

States

Virginia: Democrats Score Strong Night — Largely due to new court-imposed redistricting maps that radically changed the complexion of most districts, Virginia voters elected Democratic majorities in both houses of the legislature.

Democrats will now have at least 21 of 40 seats in the Virginia state Senate and 52 of 100 in the House of Delegates. The party division margin differences yield no change in the Senate, while Democrats converted at least four seats in the House.

While it’s difficult to overlay an incumbent victory matrix across the Old Dominion legislative elections, it is not unusual to see a state that has become reliably Democratic over the past two decades to again vote for that party’s candidates in the 2023 elections. Therefore, the fact that the state’s favored party over the course of time again performed better is consistent with the incumbent voting pattern seen elsewhere.

Kentucky; Mississippi: Governors Re-Elected — Governors Andy Beshear (D) and Tate Reeves (R) in Kentucky and Mississippi, respectively, were re-elected to new four-year terms last night with similar five percentage point victory margins. Polling in the two states suggested a closer result for both incumbents, but each was favored to win.

In 2022, 55 of the 56 US senators and governors who ran for re-election won. In the US House elections, 98.1 percent of incumbents who ran for re-election were successful. Last night, we saw two more incumbent governors win again.

Ohio: Voters Pass Two Major Initiatives — Ohio voters last night, largely on a relatively consistent 55-45 percent majority, passed ballot measures adding abortion rights to the state constitution and legalizing the possession and use of marijuana. Moves are already underway in the legislature to begin determining the parameters for legal marijuana and how much the state will both tax it as a product and regulate its use.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Candidates Head to Runoff — State Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) advanced to a runoff election to determine the city’s next mayor. Whitmire placed first in the field of five candidates with 42.5 percent of the vote. Jackson Lee finished a relatively strong second at 35.7 percent. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will now schedule the runoff election for a date in early December. Polling finds Sen. Whitmire, the state’s second longest-serving state legislator, as the early leader for the secondary vote. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) was ineligible to seek a third term.

New York City: Exonerated Rapist and Bronx Republican Elected — Yusef Salaam, one of the “Central Park 5” who was falsely accused of raping a woman in Central Park back in 1989 and who was wrongly imprisoned for seven years before being exonerated, was elected last night to an open seat on the New York City Council. His election became a foregone conclusion when he won the Democratic primary back in late June.

In the Bronx, Republican Kristy Marmorato defeated incumbent Democratic Councilwoman Marjorie Velazquez to become the first member of the GOP to represent the Bronx on the New York City Council in 20 years. Marmorato unseated Councilwoman Velazquez by a 53-47 percent margin, to cap her stunning victory.

What Kari Lake’s Senate Bid Means;
Ex-Michigan Police Chief Out to Early Lead; CA-27 Democrat Drops Bid; NJ-7 Candidate Withdraws; Houston Mayoral Runoff Likely

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 12, 2023

Senate

Kari Lake (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: Kari Lake Announces — As has been anticipated, 2022 Arizona Republican gubernatorial nominee and former news anchor Kari Lake announced her US Senate candidacy yesterday. She enters what will likely be a three-way race with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix), the latter of whom appears to be the consensus Democratic candidate. With Lake officially in the Senate race, 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters will likely withdraw. He announced a 2024 campaign several weeks ago but said he would depart if Lake entered the race.

Kari Lake has created much post-election controversy in Arizona with election fraud accusations, but she is still likely strong enough to win the Republican Senate nomination. Also in the race is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Sen. Sinema has not formally announced her re-election campaign, but she is raising money and taking action to prepare for what will be the most interesting Senate general election in the country. All three candidates will have a path to victory, so the contest officially should be rated a toss-up. This Senate race will attract a great deal of national attention as the election cycle moves forward.

Michigan: Ex-Police Chief Craig Jumps Out to Early Lead — Public Policy Polling went into the Wolverine State to test Republican primary voters and just released their results. The survey (Oct. 9-10; 430 likely Michigan Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds retired Detroit Police Chief James Craig beginning with a 30-19 percent Republican primary lead over former Congressman Mike Rogers in the open US Senate race. This contest will develop over time with a late Aug. 6 primary scheduled.

The winner will likely face US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is a clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring at the conclusion of this Congress.

House

CA-27: Democrat Drops Bid — Franky Carillo, who was once convicted of murder but freed after spending decades in prison when DNA evidence proved his innocence and has since become a Los Angeles County probation officer, has ended his congressional bid. This paves the way for former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides (D) to advance into the general election to face three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita).

CA-27 is one of the most politically marginal seats in the Republican Conference, ranked as the fourth most vulnerable on the Daily Kos Elections site scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+8, but Rep. Garcia has proven a consistent winner in the north Los Angeles County district. The 2024 election, however, is the first time he will face an opponent other than former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), whom he defeated three consecutive times.

NJ-7: Mayor Withdraws — Roselle Park Mayor Joe Signorello (D), who originally announced a challenge to Sen. Bob Menendez (D) but dropped out to instead enter the congressional race against Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), has now withdrawn again. Signorello announced during the week that he would end his congressional effort.

The Signorello move leaves former State Department Counterterrorism official Joe Blazakis and progressive activist Sue Altman as the remaining Democrats vying for the party nomination. Others could still enter the race.

Rep. Kean will be a slight favorite for re-election in a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 51.5R – 46.5D partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks NJ-7 as the 16th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Cities

Houston: Mayoral Runoff Likely — A new poll from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston (Sept. 30-Oct. 6; 800 likely Houston mayoral voters; text message), finds state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) and US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) almost assuredly advancing to a December runoff election from the Nov. 7 initial municipal vote. According to the University of Houston ballot test, Sen. Whitmire, the longest serving legislator in Texas history (first elected in 1972), leads Rep. Jackson Lee 34-31 percent among the seven tested Houston mayoral candidates. A candidate must obtain majority support to be elected outright.

Looking ahead to the succeeding runoff, Sen. Whitmire outpaces Rep. Jackson Lee by a substantial 50-36 percent margin. The best news for Sen. Whitmire is that 40 percent of the undecided voters said they would consider voting for him, while 53 percent said they would never vote for Rep. Jackson Lee. Incumbent Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

More Candidates to Challenge Menendez; SCOTUS Rejects Alabama Redistricting; Re-Election Bid in IL-5; Perry Facing Numerous Opponents in PA-10; San Fran Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023

Senate

Embattled New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and wife, Nadine Arslanian Menendez

New Jersey: Other Potential Dem Candidates Surface — While Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has already announced and reiterated that he will challenge Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in next year’s Democratic primary, other Democrats could make this contest quite crowded. Those mentioned as possible candidates include New Jersey’s First Lady Tammy Murphy, and US Reps. David Norcross (D-Camden City), Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and former House Energy & Commerce Committee chairman Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch). Only Rep. Kim, however, has made a firm declaration.

House

Alabama: SCOTUS Rejects Alabama Redistricting Appeal — The US Supreme Court on Tuesday affirmed the three-judge panel ruling that will allow a special master to draw the new Alabama congressional map after the legislature and governor’s map was rejected. The result of the redraw will likely pair Reps. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) and Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) and create a new black majority district anchored in Montgomery County. This will almost assuredly mean a one-seat gain for the Democrats in the 6R-1D Alabama congressional delegation.

IL-5: Rep. Quigley to Seek Re-Election — Rumors had been prevalent that eight-term Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Chicago) was contemplating retirement. The congressman made clear Tuesday, however, that he intends to seek re-election next year. “Reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated. There’s a lot still to do … I’m not in the first quarter of my political career, but I’m not in the last quarter either,” Quigley said, affirming that he will run again.

PA-10: Race Against Rep. Scott Perry Becoming Voluminous — The third Democratic challenger hoping to face six-term Rep. Scott Perry (R-Dillsburg/Harrisburg) announced his candidacy yesterday. International business consultant John Broadhurst has joined the Democratic primary field, which includes 2022 nominee Shamaine Daniels, a member of the Harrisburg City Council, and Carlisle School Board member Rick Coplen. Former Lancaster television news anchor Janele Stelson is also expected to soon become a Democratic congressional candidate.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-10 as R+9. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 37th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference. Therefore, the data again favors Rep. Perry regardless of who wins the upcoming Democratic primary.

Cities

San Francisco: Levi Strauss Heir to Challenge Mayor Breed — Dan Lurie, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune and cousin to freshman US Rep. Dan Goldman (D-NY), announced that he will join San Francisco County Supervisor Ahsha Safai (D) as 2024 election opponents to San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D). The mayoral campaign, labeled as nonpartisan, will be run concurrently with the regular 2024 election calendar. Both Lurie and Safai are attacking Mayor Breed on her handling of the crime issue, which has led to many businesses and residents leaving the city. Expect this to be a competitive contest.

Trump Skipping Second Debate; Impact of Romney’s Move; Tragic News for Virginia Rep. Wexton; Tight District Race in NM-2; Houston Mayoral Runoff Schedule Set

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 22, 2023

President

A view of the Ronald Reagan Library

Donald Trump: Skipping Second Debate — Former President Donald Trump said this week that he will not join the other Republican candidates at the Sept. 27 debate forum at the Ronald Reagan Library in southern California. Instead, he will be making a speech about the striking United Auto Workers union to lay the groundwork for potential support in the general election.

As he continues to hold a big lead over the entire GOP candidate field, Trump would stand to gain little by participating in the next forum. Due to more stringent debate requirements, the Republican National Committee expects to have fewer candidates earning a debate podium, with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and ex-Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson unlikely to qualify.

Senate

Utah: Two Make Moves to Join Open Race — Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R) announcement that he will not seek re-election has led to a pair of Republicans readying to enter the race. Roosevelt Mayor Rod “JR” Bird Jr. just announced his candidacy, joining Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs in the active field. State House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) said he will resign his position in mid-November and has scheduled a “special announcement” for Sept. 27. We can expect a large Republican field to form.

House

VA-7: ’22 Cong Candidate will Return — Iraq War veteran and attorney Derrick Anderson (R), who ran for the 7th District seat in the last election but failed to win the Republican primary, announced that he will return in 2024. Four other Republicans have already declared their candidacies for the politically marginal seat.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) is reportedly looking at a 2025 run for governor, and if she ultimately moves in that direction, she would not seek re-election to the House in 2024. Therefore, this race will move up the competitive scale. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the VA-7 seat as D+2. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the 7th as the 14th most vulnerable seat in the 213-member Democratic conference.

Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg)

VA-10: Health Problems Will Keep Rep. Wexton From Seeking Re-Election — Three-term Virginia US Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Leesburg) announced that she will not run for a fourth term next year due to a catastrophic health diagnosis.

“I’ve always believed that honesty is the most important value in public service, so I want to be honest with you now – this new diagnosis is a tough one. There is no ‘getting better’ with PSP (Progressive Supranuclear Palsy).” The Mayo Clinic says that “Progressive Supranuclear Palsy is an uncommon brain disorder that causes serious problems with walking, balance and eye movements, and later with swallowing. … [It] worsens over time and can lead to life-threatening complications, such as pneumonia and swallowing problems. There’s no cure for [it], so treatment focuses on managing the signs and symptoms.”

Virginia’s 10th Congressional District is anchored in Loudoun County and contains Fauquier and Rappahannock counties along with parts of Prince William and Fairfax counties. The cities of Manassas and Manassas Park are also included.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat D+8, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 55.2D – 43.0R. President Joe Biden carried this district with a substantial 58.3 – 40.2 percent margin. We can expect a competitive open campaign to develop here, but the eventual Democratic nominee will have a clear advantage in the general election.

NM-2: Tight District Race — One of the closest 2022 campaigns occurred in southern New Mexico where then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) defeated freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) by a scant 50.3 – 49.6% victory margin in a gerrymandered district designed to elect a Democrat. Survey USA was just in the field testing the 2024 re-match campaign. Again, the polling results suggest a toss-up finish.

The S-USA study (Sept. 6-12; 541 likely NM-2 voters; live interview & online) sees Herrell clutching to a slight onepoint edge over Rep. Vasquez, 46-45%. If the Republicans are to hold their slim House majority, they must win tight districts such as this one to neutralize the Democrats’ apparent advantage on the second round of redistricting.

Cities

Houston: Runoff Schedule Set — Gov. Greg Abbott (R) indicated that he would select Dec. 9 as the runoff election date for any contest that is not decided in the coming Nov. 7th election.

Under Texas law, a runoff is not officially scheduled until it is certain that one would be required. The open Houston mayoral contest largely between current US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston) and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) is likely the premier electoral contest, which will require a secondary vote. The Abbott comments give the candidates a better idea as to what time they will have regarding post-election campaign planning.

South Carolina Primary Challenge; Utah Senate Candidates Post-Romney; Manchin Contemplating Party Exit; Census Estimates Released; Former NJ Governor May Return

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 18, 2023

Senate

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill)

South Carolina: Budding 2026 Primary Challenge — US Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Sen. Lindsey Graham in the 2026 Republican primary. Rep. Norman, elected in a 2017 special election after winning six terms in the state House of Representatives, is a leader in the House Freedom Caucus. If he does run, he will oppose Sen. Graham from the party’s right flank.

Utah: AG Won’t Run — Immediately after Sen. Mitt Romney (R) announced he will not run for re-election, speculation about who might enter the race began running rampant. The two who appear as sure candidates are state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs (R). One individual who rather surprisingly has already taken himself out of the Senate race is Attorney General Sean Reyes, who at one time was thought to become a Romney primary challenger. Late last week, Reyes said he will run for re-election as attorney general, thus bypassing the open Senate race.

West Virginia: Manchin Contemplating Party Exit — Reportedly, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D), who has not yet decided whether to seek re-election, make a third party run for president, or retire from politics, is also contemplating leaving the Democratic Party. Therefore, if he does run for office again a strong possibility exists that he will do so as an Independent.

Sen. Manchin faces a difficult re-election run as the West Virginia Democratic Party’s status has weakened considerably since he was last on the ballot in 2018. The senator was originally elected in a 2010 special election. He has served as West Virginia’s governor, secretary of state, and in both houses of the state legislature, all as a Democrat. West Virginia continues to be rated as the Republican’s top conversion Senate opportunity. Both Gov. Jim Justice and US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) are competing for the Republican nomination.

States

Census: Estimates Released — The Census Bureau has released new population growth statistics for the 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. The fastest growing states for the period ending July 1, 2022, are Florida, Idaho, South Carolina, Montana, and Texas. The states losing the most population are New York, Louisiana, Illinois, California, and West Virginia. The population numbers are determinative to the number of congressional seats each state will possess in the next decade.

Cities

Jersey City, NJ: Former Governor May Return — Jim McGreevey (D), who was elected New Jersey’s governor in 2001 but who resigned because of a hiring scandal and gay love affair before the end of his first term, is contemplating making a political comeback. Apparently, a draft committee is being organized to encourage him to file for the Jersey City mayor’s post when it comes up for election next year.

In addition to being elected governor, McGreevey served as mayor of Woodbridge Township and spent six years in the New Jersey legislature. He has not run for any office since departing politics in 2004.