Category Archives: Cities

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

NC Gov. Cooper “Not Done”; Rep. Evans to Return in Jan.; After the CR Vote; Oakland’s Mayoral Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 3, 2025

Governor

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

North Carolina: Gov. Cooper “Not Done” — In his farewell address as North Carolina’s Governor, outgoing incumbent Roy Cooper (D) confirmed speculation that he has designs on running for another office. Cooper, as part of his departure speech, said he is “not done” with public service and left a broad hint that his name will again be on a ballot.

The unanswered question is whether Gov. Cooper will challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026 or begin to prepare a long range campaign for President in 2028. It is apparent that Cooper will be a part of at least one of those political endeavors.

House

PA-3: Rep. Evans Looking to Return in January — Pennsylvania Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia), who has not been voting in the House since May because he suffered a stroke, announced that he has recovered to the point of returning to work in January. Despite not being able to fully serve for months, Rep. Evans was unopposed for re-election to a 5th term in November. Prior to being elected to Congress, Evans served in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives for 35 years.

CR Vote: Quarter of GOP No Votes Not Returning — A significant number of the Republican House members who opposed the final continuing resolution package are not returning to the body in January.

Two members, Reps. Jim Banks (R-IN) and John Curtis (R-UT), were elected to the Senate in November. Three, Reps. Bob Good (R-VA), Dan Bishop (R-NC), and Alex Mooney (R-WV), lost races for re-election (Good), state Attorney General (Bishop), and US Senate (Mooney). Since the election, Bishop has been nominated to serve as President-Elect Trump’s Director of the Office of Management & Budget.

Three more individuals, Reps. Debbie Lesko (R-AZ), Greg Lopez (R-CO), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT), are retiring from the House. Lesko was elected to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors in November. Lopez won a special election when then-Rep. Ken Buck (R) resigned but did not run for a full term.

Cities

Oakland, CA: Special Election Mayoral Candidate Speculation — Mayor Sheng Thao (D) was recalled by the voters on Nov. 5, and the Oakland City Council has set April 15 for the replacement election. Already, some prominent names are surfacing as potential candidates.

The first is outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate earlier in the year and as a result risked her US House seat. Another is former NFL and University of California at Berkeley football star Marshawn Lynch, who has also been mentioned as a potential contender. Neither individual has yet confirmed interest in running, but both would be formidable candidates.

The current interim Mayor, City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas (D), will not be a candidate in the special election. She was elected to the Alameda County Board of Supervisors on Nov. 5 and will be assuming her new position at the beginning of the year.

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

RFK Jr. Announcement Friday; Rep. Pascrell Passes Away; Close Poll in MD-6; DA Gascon Trounced in Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 22, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Announcement Scheduled for Friday — It appears that Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after pushing back against Democratic Party efforts to disqualify him from several state ballots, has scheduled a national announcement for Friday. Reports from both NBC and ABC News suggests that Kennedy will formally exit the race and endorse Donald Trump.

It remains to be seen if this story is true and, if so, just what effect it will have upon the other presidential candidates. At first glance, it appears the move will marginally help Trump, but over the remaining weeks of the campaign, such may prove not to be the case.

House

NJ-9: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) Passes Away — A few days after being readmitted to the hospital, 87-year-old veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) sadly passed away. His family issued the announcement yesterday. Rep. Pascrell is the fourth House member to pass away in this Congress, the second since the July 4th holiday, and the second from New Jersey. His death follows those of Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ), and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX).

There are now four vacancies in the House, three from the members who have passed away, Reps. Jackson Lee, Payne, and Pascrell, and one from a resigned Rep. Mike Gallager (R-WI). The Pascrell vacancy reduces the House count to 220R – 211D – 4V (3D; 1R).

The open seat count headed into the election now grows to 55 with the Pascrell passing. Of these, 29 are in Democratic held districts with 25 from the Republican side, and one newly created seat within the new Alabama redistricting configuration. Another seven seats have been filled in special elections, and all but the CO-4 campaign feature new incumbents running for their first full term.

MD-6: Close Poll Released — In a surprising survey result, Public Opinion Strategies released a research study of Maryland’s 6th Congressional District for the Neil Parrott for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (Aug. 6-11; 400 likely MD-6 general election voters; live interview). The results find Democratic nominee April Delaney leading Parrott, a two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate, by only a 42-40 percent margin.

The district rates as R+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App publishes a 48.9D – 48.0R partisan lean. Yet, Parrott has not performed well in his two general election campaigns against Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). Delaney still must be considered the favorite here and will enjoy a substantial resource advantage, but this poll suggests the Republicans have life.

Cities

Los Angeles DA: Gascon Trounced in Latest Poll — George Gascon (D), the Los Angeles County District Attorney who describes himself as the “godfather of progressive prosecutors,” and became the symbol of the DA’s who do not prosecuting minor crimes, may find himself out of office after the Nov. 5 election concludes.

A recently released University of California at Berkeley survey (July 31-Aug. 11; 1,136 Los Angeles County likely voters) projects Gascon trailing Independent candidate Nathan Hochman, 20-45 percent, respectively. In terms of approval rating, a total of only 21 percent say they have a favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Gascon, as opposed to 45 percent who harbor an unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.

A Ramaswamy Switch to Libertarian Ticket?; Van Drew Won’t Run in NJ; Nunes Rumored to Return; Big Lead in OR-5; Jackson Lee Loses Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: A Libertarian Option? — Political speculation is percolating regarding reports that the national Libertarian Party may be looking toward GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy as their general election presidential nominee.

At this point, Ramaswamy says he is not interested in such an option and plans to continue his quest to top the GOP field. Since he is a long shot to overtake former President Donald Trump and the other candidates currently running ahead of him, the idea of Ramaswamy as the Libertarian Party nominee may soon become a relevant discussion topic.

Senate

New Jersey: Rep. Van Drew Won’t Run — The situation involving indicted Sen. Bob Menendez (D) has brought a great deal of attention to the 2024 New Jersey Senate race. The senator has not yet taken himself out of the discussion for next year’s election, but he will at the very least be seriously challenged for renomination. Both New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy and US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) are actively running.

One person who will not enter the Senate race, as was announced Friday, is Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The congressman announced that he won’t become a Senate candidate but will seek re-election as US representative for the people of New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District.

House

CA-20: Devin Nunes Rumored to Return — Rumors abound in central California that former Congressman Devin Nunes (R) may file for resigning Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Bakersfield) open seat. Nunes has not denied he is considering making the move. Suggesting that the Nunes rumor has legs, both Assemblymen Devon Mathis (R-Visalia) and Vincent Fong (R-Bakersfield) have declined to run for the congressional seat. State Sen. Shannon Graves (R-Bakersfield), who already represents 89 percent of the overlying congressional district, has yet to say whether she will run.

We won’t have to wait long to see a resolution. Though the 2024 candidate filing deadline was Friday, the period is extended five days when a district incumbent does not file for re-election. This means the CD-20 regular election field will be finalized on Wednesday. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will then set the calendar for a special election to fill the balance of the current term.

OR-5: McLeod-Skinner Opens with Big Dem Lead — RMG Research, polling for the US Term Limits organization, conducted a short, small sample survey for Oregon’s 5th District Democratic primary (Nov. 4-17, released Dec. 8; 300 OR-5 likely voters; online). The winner will face freshman Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley). The UST results find 2022 Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner leading state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) and Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, 41-9-4 percent.

The pollsters concentrated only on the ballot test and asking the respondents about their support for federal term limits. With a small online sample of just 300 individuals, the error factor here is high (5.7 percent). Still, the size of McLeod-Skinner’s lead suggests that she is the favorite for the party nomination and has a major lead in name identification. A competitive general election in this politically marginal congressional district is promised.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Loses Mayoral Race By Lopsided Margin — The Houston mayoral runoff was held on Saturday, and state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston) easily outpaced US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), winning by a 64-36 percent margin. Because this is an odd-numbered year race, Rep. Jackson Lee did not have to risk her US House seat. She is now expected to seek re-election next year. Sen. Whitmire, the second-longest serving state legislator in Texas history and the senator with the longest tenure, will leave the legislature to serve the four-year term as chief executive for America’s fourth-largest city.

42-Year Incumbent Rep. Kaptur to Run Again; No OH-6 Special Election; NC Filing Deadline Approaches; Jackson Lee Trails in Houston Mayoral Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023

House

Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo)

OH-9: 42-Year Incumbent Dem to Run Again — US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), initially elected in 1982, officially confirmed that she will file to seek a 22nd term. The Ohio candidate filing deadline is Dec. 20 for the March 19 primary, so candidates and challengers in this state, too, are entering the time frame where career decisions must be made.

Though the 9th District favors the Republicans by an average of six percentage points, Rep. Kaptur posted a 57-43 percent victory margin last November against a weak Republican candidate. With former state Rep. Chris Riedel expected to prevail in the 2024 GOP primary, Rep. Kaptur will face a more difficult re-election campaign. The congresswoman ranks fourth in US House seniority, and she is the second-longest serving Democrat behind only former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).

OH-6: No Special Election to Replace Rep. Johnson — Last week, Ohio US Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) announced that he will leave Congress in March to become president of Youngstown State University. Since Johnson is leaving the House after the 2024 candidate filing deadline (Dec. 20, 2023), Ohio election procedure indicates there will be no special election to fill the balance of the term. This means the March 19 plurality primary will likely decide Johnson’s successor within a crowded field of Republican candidates.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates OH-6 as R+31, and former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a strong 64-37 percent margin in 2020. Therefore, count on the GOP to easily hold the district in the 2024 general election.

Assuming New York US Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) is soon expelled, and former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) wins the special election to replace him as expected, the Republican majority after next March will shrink to 220-214. Therefore, the already close House will soon become even tighter.

North Carolina: Filing Deadline Approaching; New Announcements — The North Carolina congressional campaigns have been active this week, largely because the Dec. 15 candidate filing deadline is fast approaching, and members and challengers need to make final decisions about whether their names will be placed on the ballot next year.

Tuesday saw two announcements. One of the better Republican challenger candidates, state Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), who previously announced a congressional bid against US Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary), has decided not to enter the federal race. Instead, she will run for re-election to the state House of Representatives. Pare is indicating her decision is for family reasons, but 2023 redistricting while making the 13th District much more Republican is no longer geographically favorable to Rep. Pare. The eventual GOP nominee here will be favored to unseat Rep. Nickel in November.

In western North Carolina, Democratic state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville) declared his challenge to freshman Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) in a new 11th District where the 2020 electorate voted 55-44 percent for former President Trump according to the Daily Kos Elections site statisticians. You will remember that Rep. Edwards is the Republican candidate who denied then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) renomination in the 2022 campaign. Though Rudow is a credible Democratic contender, Rep. Edwards will be heavily favored to retain the seat in the next election.

Cities

Houston: Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee Trails in New Mayoral Poll — Survey USA conducted a poll for the University of Houston pertaining to Texas’ largest city’s mayoral campaign (Nov. 13-18; 1,120 Houston adults; 971 registered voters; 805 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) as we approach the Dec. 9 runoff election. The ballot test is breaking 42-35 percent in favor of state Sen. John Whitmire (D-Houston), the second-longest serving member of the Texas legislature having been initially elected in 1972. US Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who qualified in second place for the runoff, continues to trail Whitmire as the campaign begins to conclude.

According to the S-USA poll, crime is the overwhelming issue of concern. From the tested respondent pool a whopping 63 percent say they don’t feel safe walking around the city during the day.