Category Archives: Senate

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

Carolina’s Critical Campaigns

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 17, 2026

The state of North Carolina is playing a major role in terms of which party will control the Senate and House in the next Congress. The Tar Heel State hosts three individual campaigns that could contribute to changing the balance of power in Washington.

NC-Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) is retiring, and all available polling suggests the open seat is poised to flip to the Democrats.

Former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has won six statewide elections (two for governor and four for attorney general), is the strongest candidate in the race; he dominated the 2026 contest from the outset. Republicans nominated former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley, who also served as North Carolina GOP chairman, but this is his first campaign as a candidate.

Since the March 3 primary, 21 publicly released polls have tested the NC Senate race, and Cooper leads in all. Across six major poll aggregators – 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, Race to the White House, RealClearPolitics, and Silver Bulletin – the Cooper average advantage is 8.2 percentage points.

North Carolina routinely produces close statewide races, and Republicans tend to win slightly more than Democrats. Both parties, however, can prevail here in any given election.

Among all 2026 Senate contests, this race currently appears as the most likely to flip away from the incumbent party. If Cooper wins, Democrats would still need to convert three additional Republican states, however, in addition to defending their vulnerable seats in Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

NC-1

North Carolina is one of several states that redrew its congressional map before the 2026 election. Because the Governor has no role in redistricting, the Republican legislature controlled the process. Their redraw transformed the previously lean‑Democratic northeastern 1st District into a lean‑Republican seat.

In 2020, President Trump narrowly lost NC‑1 by one percentage point. In 2024, he rebounded to win here 51-48 percent. Despite Trump’s improved performance, Democratic Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) still won re‑election, but with a small margin of less than two percentage points.

The legislature then redrew the district to the point where Trump would have carried the new version by 10-plus points. Dave’s Redistricting App now calculates a 52.4R – 45.9D 1st District partisan lean under the new map. After the redraw, 2024 Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout returned for a rematch with Rep. Davis in a new district with much more GOP friendly terrain.

A new Democratic survey, however, suggests converting the seat may be more difficult than expected. The GBAO firm’s poll (Sept. 8-11; 500 likely voters) shows Rep. Davis leading 50-43 percent, which is beyond the polling margin of error. A June GQR poll (June 22-28; 500 likely voters) also found Rep. Davis ahead, though by a smaller 45-41 percent spread.

The data currently points to a Republican under‑performance. NC‑1 is a must‑win for the GOP if they hope to retain their narrow House majority. Expect significant outside spending to flood the district as the campaign advances through political prime time.

NC-11

The second NC competitive House seat is found in the western 11th District contest anchored in the city of Asheville. In early August, Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock) withdrew from his re‑election bid following revelations of an inappropriate relationship with young female staff members, conduct that resulted in a House censure.

Local Republican leaders then replaced him with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom (R-Henderson County), but she had to create a congressional campaign from scratch just three months before election day. Balkcom faces Democrat Jamie Ager, who has already raised more than $2 million and is attempting to brand himself as a “Mountain Democrat” in order to distance himself from the national party’s socialist wing.

NC‑11 is the weakest of the 11 Republican‑held districts under the new map, though it still carries a 51.9R – 45.8D partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App).

A new Public Policy Polling survey (Sept. 10-11; 531 likely voters) offers Republicans some encouragement. Ager leads just 47-44 percent over an opponent who has not yet reached full campaign strength.

Because the last two District 11 Republican incumbents were forced out after short tenures (Edwards; and Rep. Madison Cawthorn, who lost renomination in 2022 after a series of personal scandals), the GOP must again persuade a likely weary electorate to support a new candidate who again promises steadier representation.

NC‑11 is another must‑win Republican seat, and like NC‑1, it will likely attract substantial outside spending aimed at securing a victory from what is now an underdog position.

North Carolina will be a key early‑reporting state on election night. The competitive Tar Heel State contests are part of the group that will provide early national trend indicators as results begin to unfold across the country.

Nebraska’s Notable Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Senate

SurveyUSA went into the field to test the Cornhusker State of Nebraska’s electorate and it appears we may be seeing deja vu all over again in the state’s US Senate race.

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn came from nowhere to give Republican Sen. Deb Fischer a tough race when it appeared that she would run virtually unopposed. As September closed that year, Osborn was running consistently ahead in multiple polls, yet ultimately lost by almost seven percentage points – despite late polling suggesting Sen. Fischer’s average advantage was under two points.

This year, Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won the 2024 special election with 63 percent of the vote to serve the balance of the current term and now seeks a full six‑year stint, faces Osborn as the latter man returns to try again. Approaching mid‑September, a familiar pattern is emerging: a new poll again shows Osborn with a slight lead.

The SurveyUSA data (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely Nebraska general‑election voters; live interview and text) places Osborn ahead of Ricketts, 46-42 percent. The only other publicly released poll since the May 12th primary, conducted by Democratic firm Impact Research (Aug. 9-13; 600 likely voters; live interview), found the race deadlocked at 47 percent apiece.

SurveyUSA segmented its current results by congressional district. While the cell sizes are too small to draw firm conclusions, they offer directional insight.

As expected, Sen. Ricketts performed strongly in the heavily Republican 3rd District and trailed in the Omaha based 2nd CD. Raising eyebrows, however, was his deficit in the Republican leaning 1st District that Congressman Mike Flood (R-Norfolk/ Lincoln) represents. With only 176 respondents in that segment, the finding is not definitive, but the ballot test deficit is enough to command the attention of Sen. Ricketts’ political strategists.

Another unexpected finding came from the favorability ratings. Statewide responses for President Trump, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Lynne Walz, Sen. Ricketts, and Osborn all registered negative images. Seeing all statewide figures viewed negatively may reflect the broader political frustration appearing across much of the country.

Supporting the frustration interpretation, a YouGov national online survey for CBS News (Sept. 8-11; 1,809 registered voters) found nearly identical unfavorable ratings for both major parties: Republicans were negatively viewed by a 43:56 ratio and Democrats at a 44:56 negative proportion.

Yet even with Gov. Pillen’s poor 35:52 favorability score, he still leads Walz – a former state Senator and cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz – by a 43-35 percent margin in the SUSA ballot test. Such conflicting and sometimes counterintuitive resultshave seemingly become commonplace throughout much of the country.

As Republicans appear to be facing a difficult national environment – potentially losing the House majority and seeing their Senate advantage threatened – the question becomes whether voters will turn to a Democratic Party they view with comparable dissatisfaction.

The closing weeks of the 2026 campaign may therefore produce unexpected messaging choices and unconventional strategic decisions as candidates and party leaders navigate through what increasingly looks like a demoralized electorate.

Michigan’s Importance

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 11, 2026

Senate

The Michigan Senate race is likely the most compelling contest on this year’s political map and the latest surveys all confirm a toss-up status. It is probable that the candidate winning this race will prove to be the springboard necessary for his party to capture the Senate majority.

Polls are already coming fast and furious, echoing the frenetic pattern we saw in 2024 when former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) came within three‑tenths of a percentage point of defeating then‑Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D). If the 2024 race trajectory repeats, the final outcome could be different than today’s numbers suggest.

In September 2024, three surveys – from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, Quinnipiac University, and Marist College – were conducted between the 6th and 17th. Averaging these polls, Slotkin posted 49 percent support, while Rogers averaged 43.3 percent. On Election Day, Slotkin finished at 48.6 percent compared to Rogers’ 48.3, a margin of 19,006 votes from more than 5.5 million cast.

This year’s polling during the Sept. 3-9 period, conducted by the Glengariff Group, SSRS for CNN, and the Trafalgar Group, shows a slightly different pattern. Averaging these three surveys – each producing tight ballot tests – Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed records 45.6 percent, with Rogers in a virtual tie at 45 percent.

At this commensurate point in the election cycle, Rogers is in a stronger position than he was two years ago. In 2024, he gained roughly five percentage points between the September average and the final vote. Slotkin’s September number, by contrast, closely matched her eventual result.

This recurring pattern – pollsters accurately capturing the Democratic number while understating Republican support – appears relatively often, and particularly so in the Midwest and South.

Though El‑Sayed has led in most post‑primary polling – nine of 11 surveys since the August 4th primary – his mean average stands at 47.4 percent. If the familiar polling pattern described above holds in 2026, this is the range where the Democratic nominee would likely finish, meaning a final number below 50 percent that could tilt the race toward Rogers.

Another factor worth noting: El‑Sayed significantly over‑polled in his primary against Rep. Haley Stevens (D‑Birmingham). Nine pre‑primary surveys showed him leading by an average of 15 points, yet he won the nomination by just nine‑tenths of a percentage point.

The El-Sayed cumulative primary polling average was 48.4 percent – strikingly similar to his current general election range.

Michigan is pivotal for Republicans because a Rogers victory would flip a Democratic seat into the GOP column, offsetting what appears to be an impending GOP loss in North Carolina. Democrats would still then need to convert four Republican seats to claim a majority.

Michigan’s importance grows further when considering that GOP candidates are trailing, albeit narrowly, in surveys of the Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas Senate races. If the typical Republican underpolling pattern is present, their actual standing may be stronger than current surveys suggest.

On election night, the path to the Senate majority will begin in Michigan. If Mike Rogers prevails, Republicans will be positioned to retain their majority. An Abdul El‑Sayed victory, on the other hand, would give Democrats a credible opening toward reaching 51 seats.

Two Key Races Develop in NH Primary; Missouri Map Out

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, September 9, 2026

New Hampshire

Granite State voters chose their nominees last night, and two contests important to the national political landscape in November are now set.

In the Senate race, as expected, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) easily won their respective primaries and will meet in a shortened general election campaign. Rep. Pappas defeated scientist and far left activist Karishma Manzur, 65-33 percent, a result roughly in line with pre election polling.

Sununu posted an even larger victory over former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire GOP Senate nominee Scott Brown, 68-27 percent in the Republican primary.

Early general election polling suggests a competitive race. Though Democrats have held a consistent advantage in New Hampshire for much of this century, the Sununu family has also performed strongly statewide; John Sununu’s brother, Chris Sununu (R), for example, won four consecutive two year gubernatorial terms before retiring in 2024.

In the state’s closely watched 1st Congressional District, former Portsmouth City Councilwoman Stefany Shaheen – daughter of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) – appears to have eked out a narrow 37-35 percent victory with several thousand ballots still outstanding. While the remaining votes could theoretically shift the outcome, it would be difficult for former Biden Administration official Maura Sullivan to overcome Shaheen’s advantage. The tight margin is notable: the Shaheen name has been a fixture in New Hampshire politics for decades, so a narrow win in a Democratic primary represents an under performance relative to historical expectations.

On the Republican side, automobile business owner Anthony DiLorenzo scored a decisive victory, winning a majority of the vote and defeating former New Hampshire Republican Party Vice Chair Hollie Neveletsky by a 52-26 percent spread.

Although the 1st District has long been considered competitive, Rep. Pappas secured the seat for the Democrats through four consecutive terms. Prior to Pappas first winning here in 2018, the last time the 1st District electorate re-elected an incumbent came in 2004. Based upon the most recent electoral trends, Stefany Shaheen begins the general election with a substantial advantage.

In the 2nd District, the expected rematch materialized: Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) and 2024 Republican nominee Lily Tang Williams each won easy primary victories. Rep. Goodlander enters November as the clear favorite to retain the seat.

The gubernatorial primaries also unfolded without suspense. Gov. Kelly Ayotte won 91 percent of the vote in the Republican contest, while former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington was unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Gov. Ayotte begins the general election as the favorite to secure a second two-year term.

Statewide primary turnout, driven largely by strong participation in the 1st District, clearly favored Democrats. Approximately 57 percent of all ballots cast yesterday were in the Democratic primary.

Missouri

In an emergency ruling issued due to the compressed election timetable, Associate Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who serves as the presiding justice for both the 6th and 8th Circuits, encompassing Michigan and Missouri, yesterday rejected Missouri’s appeal of a state Supreme Court decision disqualifying the new congressional map.

Justice Kavanaugh had previously ruled on a Michigan case that closely resembled the Missouri situation: in both states, ballot initiatives appeared to meet the statutory requirements for ballot placement, but election officials denied certification.

The two rulings, however, appeared inconsistent. Justice Kavanaugh declined to allow the Americans for Citizen Voting organization’s proof of citizenship measure onto the Michigan ballot yet permitted the Missouri initiative – seeking voter approval or rejection of the state’s new congressional map – to proceed. In both instances, he provided no explanation for his decisions.

The final outcome leaves the new 2026 Missouri map disqualified and reinstates the 2022 congressional boundaries. As a result, Republicans lose the opportunity to convert the Kansas City-anchored 5th District. Because the 2026 congressional nominees were chosen under the now invalidated map, the state must determine how to select nominees under the restored 2022 lines. Complicating matters further, it remains unclear which state official or entity has the authority to make such determinations.

With statutory deadlines rapidly approaching, Missouri faces significant time pressure to comply with its election laws, meaning nomination decisions will need to be made quickly.

Alaska Chaos

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 4, 2026

Election System

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)

The nation’s 49th state has the most unique electoral system, and this year its ramifications are in overdrive. With primary votes finally official, the general election landscape becomes clear.

The Alaska top-four nominating system features a jungle primary that sends a quartet of candidates to the general election. In the other states with similar systems, only two individuals advance.

Alaska adds an additional twist: if a qualifying candidate withdraws before the general election, the next highest vote‑getter is elevated. In this year’s Governor’s race, enough qualifiers exited that the eighth‑place finisher now occupies the fourth general‑election slot.

In November, if none of the four candidates receives majority support, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) begins and proceeds through successive rounds until one contender surpasses the 50 percent threshold.

While the Governor’s race produced the remarkable outcome of an eighth‑place finisher advancing, it is the Senate contest where this hybrid top‑four system is creating havoc –particularly for incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Turning to the recent Aug. 18 primary, former Congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) finished well ahead of Sen. Sullivan. Official results show Peltola leading with 82,244 votes (49.5 percent), followed by Sullivan with 68,726 votes (41.4 percent). In third place was Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. (I), who received 4,107 votes (2.5 percent). Democrat David Leslie placed fourth with 1,805 votes (1.1 percent) but withdrew, elevating fifth‑place finisher Gerald Heikes, a Republican, to the general election ballot.

Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s candidacy generated controversy because he shares the same name as the two‑term Senator. Some believe Democrats encouraged him to run to confuse voters and siphon support from the incumbent. GOP officials challenged his ballot position, but the courts ruled that he could remain because the name is legally his and cannot be grounds for exclusion.

As a result, Sen. Sullivan enters the general election trailing Peltola and sharing the ballot with another Republican and an Independent who bears his name. This configuration splits the GOP vote among three candidates, weakening Sullivan in the initial tally.

While this hurts Sen. Sullivan, it also could backfire on Peltola as well, because the two Republicans and the Senator’s namesake could attract enough votes to deny her 50 percent, which means RCV would be triggered.

In such a scenario, voters who supported Heikes or Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. could rank the incumbent second or third, potentially consolidating behind him in later rounds. Some of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.’s voters, particularly those confused by the duplicate name, may well rank the Senator as their second or third choice.

This confusing situation and the fact that only 28 percent of Alaska’s registered voters participated in the primary election puts Sen. Sullivan back in contention.

The Alaska Senate situation has now devolved into a serious election for Sen. Sullivan and is an indictment of the Alaska election system. Combined, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and Heikes received 3.5 percent of the jungle primary vote, yet both advance to the general election.

Voters may choose to address this structural flaw in November. A ballot initiative to repeal the top‑four system and restore traditional partisan primaries is again before the electorate. The same measure appeared on the 2024 ballot and failed by just 743 votes. Given the current Senate turmoil, 2026 may be the year Alaskans decide to mercifully end the top‑four experiment.

Kansas Now In Play

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Senate

One of the Democratic Party’s 2026 objectives in its bid to regain the Senate majority is to push the maximum number of Republican seats into the competitive realm.

The death of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has placed that typically safe GOP seat into competitive mode, as have the credible Democratic candidacies that are emerging in Alaska and Iowa.

Party strategists have also taken the unusual step of persuading three Democratic nominees – in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota – to withdraw in favor of coalition aligned Independents, each a former Democrat or clear liberal ideologue, in hopes of consolidating enough support to tighten those races.

The party leaders’ similar quest fell short in Montana, where Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead declined to step aside for former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an Independent.

The latest state to show signs of competitiveness is Kansas. A new Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 12-16; 800 likely voters) finds Democrat Adam Hamilton holding a narrow 44-43 percent edge over Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Kansas polling finding a Democrat within striking distance in September is not unusual, however, and recent history suggests caution in interpreting such numbers.

Certainly, this is not the first time in recent memory where we have seen Kansas polling data putting the Democratic nominee on the same footing as their Republican opponent only to see the GOP prevail by about 10 percentage points on election day.

Sen. Marshall himself faced similar polling volatility in 2020. That September, he led in two polls, trailed in two, and was tied in two more. He ultimately won the open Senate race with a 53-42 percent margin.

The pattern was even more pronounced in 2014, when four term incumbent Pat Roberts (R) appeared to be in serious trouble. This campaign started as a three-way contest among Sen. Roberts, the Democratic nominee, and a strong Independent, Greg Orman, who would eventually narrow the race to a choice between he and the incumbent.

In September of that year, Orman led in six of eight polls and the two were tied in a ninth. Roberts nevertheless prevailed by the same 53-42 percent spread as Marshall would six years later.

Therefore, seeing a Kansas Senate race close in the month of September before a regular election is nothing new. It is important to remember, that regardless of polling reports, the last time a Democrat was elected as a Jayhawk State US Senator came in 1932.

Democrats, however, have fared better in gubernatorial contests, winning seven races since 1932, most recently with current two term Gov. Laura Kelly. Kathleen Sebelius also won two terms in 2002 and 2006. Over that same period, Republicans have elected 13 governors.

Hamilton, a Methodist minister, has run a credible campaign and performed well financially. According to Federal Election Commission pre primary filings through July 15, he raised $4.2 million and reported $1.7 million cash on hand. Sen. Marshall raised $6.2 million over the same period and entered the late summer stretch with nearly $5.4 million in his campaign account. A noticeable uptick in spending from the Senator’s campaign will occur in the coming days and weeks.

It is probable that both the Kansas and South Carolina Senate races will soon show a stronger Republican trend and they will likely exit the competitive board as election day approaches. For now, however, each warrants monitoring in case signs of a long shot upset begin to crystallize.

Markey Wins Big; Neal, Lynch Tighter

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 2, 2026

Last night’s Massachusetts primary resulted in each incumbent prevailing, but not all were landslide victories.

Senate

Polling accurately anticipated the outcome of the Bay State’s Senate primary, as veteran incumbent Ed Markey easily defeated Rep. Seth Moulton (D‑Salem) by a 65-35 percent margin. Though not all 351 municipalities had reported by late Tuesday night, returns from roughly 280 communities showed Moulton carrying only nine, with six of them coming within his 6th Congressional District.

Rep. Moulton’s decision to run for the Senate had been questioned by many political observers, since Sen. Markey did not appear vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. He demonstrated that strength six years ago when he defeated then‑Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III, 55-45 percent, overcoming a member of the Kennedy family in their home state and within their own party.

The six‑term Congressman attempted to frame the race around age and longevity. Sen. Markey is 80 years old and has held elective office continuously since first winning a seat in the Massachusetts House of Representatives back in 1972. In the end, the Moulton attack line failed to gain traction.

Moulton will leave Congress when his term ends in January. Sen. Markey now heads into the general election with a prohibitive advantage over attorney John Deaton, who was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Governor

Incumbent Gov. Maura Healey was unopposed in yesterday’s Democratic primary, and, as expected, former healthcare company executive Mike Minogue won the Republican nomination, defeating businessman and retired Marine Corps veteran Brian Shortsleeve by a commanding 76-24 percent margin.

Minogue will be a credible Republican contender against Gov. Healey, but his prospects remain weak in a state that is quintessentially Democratic. Turnout underscores the challenge: roughly 275,000 voters participated in the Republican primary, compared with more than 900,000 on the Democratic side. While Gov. Healey enters November as a heavy favorite, Minogue is positioned to offer voters a viable alternative.

House

While several members of Massachusetts’ all‑Democratic US House delegation faced primary challengers, only one race appeared genuinely competitive heading into election day. In the end, a second contest proved unexpectedly close.

The surprise came in the 1st District, where veteran Rep. Richard Neal (D‑Springfield) defeated educator Jeromie Whalen by a narrower‑than‑expected 54-46 percent margin, remarkably tight given the campaign’s extreme spending disparity. Through the pre‑primary reporting period ending Aug. 12, Rep. Neal held a $3 million to $330,000 expenditure advantage.

The challenger did not run as a Democratic Socialist but cast Congressman Neal as an entrenched establishment incumbent and claimed he is “one of the top recipients of corporate money.” This, of course, would be illegal, since direct corporate contributions to candidate committees are not allowed.

Whalen did not distinguish the difference between a corporate contribution and a corporate political action committee comprised of private sector employees voluntarily participating in the political process.

Given the number of incumbent House members in both parties who have lost renomination this year, Rep. Neal’s below‑average margin may reflect a broader frustration among various electorates toward long‑serving federal incumbents.

In the 4th District, three‑term Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D‑Newton) easily dispatched research scientist Jason Poulos, once viewed as a potentially credible challenger. Rep. Auchincloss secured renomination with a 72-28 percent victory.

House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D‑Revere) also cruised, winning 74 percent of the vote against two opponents. She advances to the November general election as a prohibitive favorite in her 5th District, which carries a 68.3D – 29.7R partisan lean according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

In the open 6th District, as polling suggested, former Andover Selectman and ex‑Biden Administration official Dan Koh won the Democratic nomination with a 41-30-12-9 percent result over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D‑Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito. Koh previously lost a 2018 3rd District primary to current Rep. Lori Trahan (D‑Westford) by just 145 votes.

Finally, in the Boston‑anchored 8th District, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D‑South Boston) defeated former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath, 57-43 percent, in a race that fundraising and polling had suggested could be competitive.

Rep. Lynch lost the Boston municipality to Roath but performed strongly in the district’s communities that lie south of the state’s capital city. The Congressman is again a prohibitive favorite in the November general election to secure a 14th term.

Next week, voters in New Hampshire and Rhode Island will choose their nominees, and Delaware will close the 2026 primary season on Sept. 15.

The Democrats’ Independent Ploy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Democrats and their ideological coalition partners are pursuing a coordinated strategy across the Mountain and Midwest states to make otherwise safe Republican Senate seats more competitive. Their chances of unseating GOP incumbents remain low, but recent polling indicates that races in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota have tightened.

The approach follows the model established in Nebraska’s 2024 Senate race, when Independent Dan Osborn, with the help of the Nebraska Democratic Party, which agreed not to field its own candidate, turned what had appeared to be an easy re‑election path for Sen. Deb Fischer (R) into a serious contest.

Osborn returns this year, this time challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrats and their ideological allies have now replicated the Nebraska blueprint in Idaho and South Dakota, clearing the field for coalition‑aligned Independent candidates and persuading the Democratic nominees in all three states to withdraw. They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, but Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead refused to step aside.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R), who previously served a short stint as Idaho’s Governor, two non‑consecutive partial terms as Lieutenant Governor, and 22 years in the state Senate, is seeking a fourth term in the US Senate.

In late July, Democratic nominee David Roth withdrew from the race, clearing a path for Independent Todd Achilles, a former Democratic state legislator, to mount a stronger challenge. The contest is not a direct one‑on‑one matchup, however, as two additional Independent candidates also appear on the ballot.

Highly conflicting August polls emerged within days of each other. Peak Insights (Aug. 11-13; 500 likely Idaho voters) showed Sen. Risch with a commanding 52-18 percent lead over Achilles. By contrast, the Bullfinch Group (Aug. 16-19; 608 likely Idaho voters) reported a dramatically different result, placing Achilles ahead 38-32 percent.

Across its three surveys of the race, the Bullfinch Group has consistently produced much tighter margins than other pollsters. For example, Change Research – a Democratic firm – found Risch in a far stronger position in its late July poll (July 28-30; 1,213 likely Idaho general election voters; online), showing the Senator leading Achilles 45-21 percent.

Sen. Risch remains favored for re‑election, but Mr. Achilles, running without the Democratic Party label, presents a more formidable challenge than a traditional party nominee would in heavily Republican Idaho.

Montana

Democratic Party leaders urged their June 2 primary winner, retired Air Force officer Alani Bankhead, to withdraw from the Montana Senate race in order to give former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar a stronger chance of preventing Republican Kurt Alme from succeeding retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R). Bankhead refused and remains a candidate. Her presence on the ballot creates a four‑way contest that clearly benefits Alme.

Controversy erupted at the candidate filing deadline when Sen. Daines – who had already filed for re‑election – abruptly withdrew as the window was closing, allowing Alme to file with almost no time left for other Republicans to enter the race. In a hypothetical two‑way contest between Alme and Bodnar, the latter polled competitively and made the general election a genuine race.

In the multi‑candidate configuration, Alme leads by a substantial margin but falls short of majority support. Montana recognizes plurality victories, however, so the current ballot structure favors the GOP nominee.

The latest Hart Research poll underscores how Bankhead’s decision to stay in the race reshapes the contest. According to their survey (Aug. 1-4; 800 likely Montana general election voters), Alme leads the four‑way race with 46 percent, Bodnar follows at 30 percent and Bankhead at 15 percent. In a hypothetical head‑to‑head matchup, Hart Research finds Alme and Bodnar tied at 46 percent each.

The FiftyPlusOne polling aggregator similarly shows Alme with an average 45-26-22 percent advantage over Bodnar and Bankhead, respectively.

Nebraska

Independent Dan Osborn returns with official Democratic Party and liberal organization backing after major‑party nominee Cindy Burbank – who initially insisted she would remain in the race even when the Secretary of State questioned her intentions – ultimately withdrew, giving Osborn a clear path. Last month, the Legalize Marijuana Party candidate also exited the contest, leaving Osborn in a direct one‑on‑one matchup with Sen. Pete Ricketts (R).

As in 2024, polling now suggests the Nebraska Senate race is highly competitive. Still, based on historical voting patterns, the eventual outcome as Election Day approaches is likely to favor Sen. Ricketts by more than five percentage points.

Across his three statewide elections – two for Governor and one for the Senate in 2024, when he won the special election to fill the remainder of former Sen. Ben Sasse’s term – Sen. Ricketts has averaged 59 percent of the vote.

South Dakota

The most recent Senate race in which an Independent has become the principal challenger to a Republican incumbent lies in South Dakota, where Democratic nominee Julian Beaudion withdrew in early August. His departure leaves Independent Brian Bengs, a former Democrat, as Sen. Mike Rounds’ (R) chief opponent.

A new survey suggests the race could become competitive, though polls taken immediately after a major candidate withdrawal often give the remaining challenger a temporary boost. The Democratic polling firm Impact Research conducted a live‑interview poll (Aug. 13–17; 500 likely South Dakota general election voters) showing Bengs pulling into a 44-44 percent tie with Sen. Rounds.

It is unlikely that such parity will hold as Election Day approaches, but the result ensures that the South Dakota Senate race will receive more attention than originally expected.

Tomorrow’s Massachusetts Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 31, 2026

Entering the final month of the primary election calendar, three Democratic nomination contests will be decided in tomorrow’s plurality elections. Sen. Ed Markey (D) appears well positioned to defeat his intra party challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem), who is risking his seat to pursue the Senate race, thereby creating an open 6th District race.

In the Boston area, veteran Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) is facing a credible Democratic challenger in his 8th District battle for renomination.

Senate

In this late stage US Senate primary, we reach the culmination point of a contest that began a year ago when six-term Rep. Moulton surprisingly announced that he would challenge veteran Sen. Ed Markey.

Six years earlier, when facing a high profile primary opponent, Sen. Markey defeated then Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy III by 10 points, despite beginning the race significantly behind in early polling. At the time of the 2020 Democratic primary, Sen. Markey had already won two statewide elections, 18 US House contests, and two races for the Massachusetts House of Representatives. Heading into tomorrow’s vote, Markey has won 23 Bay State elections, translating into 52 consecutive years in public office.

Polling indicates that Markey is in strong position to win again. The University of New Hampshire Research Center’s June Bay State Poll (June 18–23; 370 likely Democratic primary voters; online) showed Markey leading Moulton 41-35 percent. The university’s most recent survey (Aug. 20–24; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online) found the Senator’s advantage expanding dramatically to 63-28 percent. Three additional surveys conducted between the two UNH polls showed Markey averaging roughly 55 percent support.

Both candidates mounted serious fundraising efforts. Sen. Markey reported receipts of just over $8 million, while Rep. Moulton raised more than $6 million.

Though the race has drawn limited national attention, Moulton has campaigned aggressively and adopted more liberal positions to appeal to the party’s sizable leftwing faction.

Rep. Moulton is a credible challenger, but the Markey legacy, built over decades of electoral success, remains a formidable barrier. Based on available polling and public indicators, Sen. Markey appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow’s primary.

MA-6

With Rep. Moulton running statewide, his northeast Massachusetts 6th Congressional District – stretching from Boston to the New Hampshire border and from Andover eastward to the Atlantic Ocean – is open for the first time since the 1978 election. The contest will probably produce a winner who narrowly lost a congressional primary eight years ago.

Former Andover Selectman and ex Biden Administration official Dan Koh appears to hold a discernible advantage over state Rep. Tram Nguyen (D-Andover), cryptocurrency executive John Beccia, former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, and two additional candidates. According to a wrap up Global Strategy Group survey (Aug. 20–23; 400 likely MA-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview), Mr. Koh holds a 35-20-12-8 percent advantage over Nguyen, Beccia, and Belsito, respectively.

In 2018, Koh lost the 3rd District Democratic primary to Lori Trahan by just 145 votes. Trahan went on to win the general election and is now unopposed for renomination to a fifth term.

MA-8

The other Massachusetts race of note is the Democratic primary challenge to 13-term Rep. Lynch in a district with a distinguished political lineage. Two US Presidents and one of the most famous House Speakers have represented this Boston-anchored seat.

Before his election to the Senate and later the Presidency, John F. Kennedy served three terms in this congressional district. After leaving the White House, President John Quincy Adams returned to Massachusetts and won eight elections to this district, serving in the House until his death in 1848. Tip O’Neill succeeded Kennedy, represented the district for 34 years, and reigned for a decade as Speaker of the House.

This year, attorney and former gubernatorial aide Patrick Roath has assembled a notable support coalition that includes teachers’ unions, the Boston Globe, and his former boss, ex Gov. Deval Patrick. Roath posted a stronger fundraising total – just under $1.3 million – than Rep. Lynch, who raised $910,000, though the Congressman entered the final week with a $400,000 cash on hand advantage.

Roath touts a large grassroots operation and tomorrow will reveal whether his extensive precinct organization can produce a major upset. Rep. Lynch is not viewed as one of the more liberal members of the Massachusetts delegation, so the contest bears watching, particularly in a cycle that has already seen 11 US Representatives lose renomination. Even so, the odds still favor Rep. Lynch to prevail in his quest for a 14th term.