Category Archives: Senate

The Point Races

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, November 3, 2026

Election Day

You can watch Election Day results in a number of locations; NPR is just one of dozens, if not hundreds of spots you can track in real time as election results unfold: NPR Election Results.

Today is Election Day, and there are a number of races we should watch for clues about the developing national trend. Outlined below are key contests that may provide some early answers.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 53-47 majority and are likely to return with a smaller conference if not in the minority. The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach the 51 majority threshold. Republicans, as we know, will retain the Senate at 50-50.

The first race to monitor is Michigan, while conceding that the Republican seat in North Carolina will easily go to Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper. If former Republican Congressman Mike Rogers flips Michigan’s open Senate seat by defeating former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, Republicans would have a strong chance of preserving their majority.

Democrats can reach 51 seats with a Cooper victory in North Carolina, a hold in Michigan, and wins in three of the following four states: Maine (defeating Sen. Susan Collins), Ohio (defeating Sen. Jon Husted), Texas (capturing the open seat being vacated by Sen. John Cornyn), and Alaska (defeating Sen. Dan Sullivan). If Republicans win any of these contests in addition to Michigan, their majority would likely be secure.

At this point, the Iowa race featuring Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and the Nebraska contest involving Sen. Pete Ricketts are both trending Republican. Kansas remains a wild card. Though the polling trajectory resembles both 2014 and 2020, when late surveys showed close races before Republicans ultimately won by 10 and 11 points, respectively, the contest between Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton continues to remain tight.

The final Senate race to watch in the early time zones is Minnesota. The Republican nominee is former national sports media figure Michele Tafoya, who has an outside chance at scoring an upset. As in Michigan, a Tafoya victory would likely ensure continued Republican control of the Senate.

The House appears poised to shift Democratic, but the size of the emerging majority remains uncertain. Among the most important early House races is New York’s 17th District, where two-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) faces former National Security Council official Cait Conley. Rep. Lawler holds one of three districts that voted for Kamala Harris but sends a Republican to the House. He is a strong campaigner with a proven track record. A Lawler defeat would suggest that Democrats have a realistic opportunity to approach 240 seats in the new House.

The same is true in Pennsylvania’s 1st District. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Levittown) also represents a suburban Philadelphia seat that Harris won but sends a Republican to the House. If Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie (D) defeats Fitzpatrick, Democrats would be well on their way to a significant national victory.

In Virginia, the districts of Reps. Rob Wittman (R-Montrose) and Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) represent key Democratic pickup opportunities. Conversely, Republicans need to flip North Carolina’s 1st District, currently held by Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill), after the seat was redrawn in the state’s 2026 redistricting plan. Failure to capture NC-1 would deal a major blow to Republican hopes nationwide.

Florida is crucial to Republican House prospects. The new redistricting map was expected to produce a net gain of four seats through victories over Reps. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee), Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), and Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland/Ft. Lauderdale), along with the capture of the newly created open 22nd District, which stretches across the peninsula from Fort Lauderdale to Marco Island. Any result short of a four-seat gain would point toward a large Democratic majority.

Michigan is another key House battleground in the Eastern Time Zone. Republicans are defending three highly competitive districts: Rep. Bill Huizenga’s seat in the southwestern part of the state, Rep. Tom Barrett’s Lansing-area district, and the open 10th CD anchored in Oakland County.

Ohio is also pivotal. Republicans initially expected to gain two seats under the new congressional map but now find themselves fighting to protect much of their existing delegation. Democratic incumbents Marcy Kaptur of Toledo and Greg Landsman of Cincinnati represent GOP targets, and Republicans need to defeat both.

At the same time, they must defend competitive districts held by Reps. Max Miller in suburban Cleveland, Mike Turner in Dayton, and Mike Carey in the Columbus area. Winning all of these races becomes considerably more difficult if Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy loses or if Sen. Jon Husted is defeated.

The Texas map became the centerpiece of the national Republican redistricting strategy and was expected to produce a net gain of five congressional seats. Polling and electoral trends, however, suggest that Republicans are unlikely to achieve that objective and instead may finish with a net gain of only two or three seats.

The significant inroads Republicans made in South Texas over the previous two election cycles appear to be eroding, with several districts showing movement back toward the Democrats. As a result, the political tailwinds that once fueled GOP expansion in the region are no longer providing the same level of electoral advantage, blunting the party’s anticipated gains under the new map.

Many additional contests will come into focus as results begin arriving from the Mountain and Pacific time zones. Nevertheless, the races highlighted above should provide some of the earliest and clearest indications regarding the size of a potential Democratic House majority and whether Democrats can also engineer a Senate takeover.

The Michigan Comparison

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 29, 2026

Arguably, the Michigan Senate race could determine which party will control the Senate in the next Congress. With Democrats having a chance to obtain the majority by scoring a presumed flip in North Carolina and currently running close or ahead but not secure in Alaska, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, a GOP win in Michigan could save the party’s majority.

With that background in mind, let us examine recent polling data and compare it with the 2024 Senate race, in which Republican nominee Mike Rogers, again the party’s nominee in 2026, fell just 19,006 votes short out of more than 5.57 million ballots cast. Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s (D) victory margin was a mere three-tenths of one percentage point.

The polling in 2024, however, painted a slightly different picture, and many of the same firms are now surveying the 2026 contest. Below is a comparison of the final pre-election ballot tests and the actual election results. We then examine data from some of those same pollsters in the current race between Rogers and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.

Click on chart above to see full-size.

In the closing days of the 2024 campaign, six polls from five polling organizations were conducted between Nov. 1 and Election Day, which was on Nov. 5. Their final ballot test results are presented below and, collectively, came quite close to the eventual outcome.

As you can see from the chart below, the actual 2024 numbers show the result of Slotkin (D) edging Rogers (R) 48.6-48.3 percent.

All polls between Nov. 1-4 projected Slotkin to be ahead or tied.

While the polls from a week before the election, commensurate with now in 2026, largely showed a different trend: All of these polls found Slotkin leading. There were two in the Oct. 26-30 time period, from Mitchell Research and the Tarrance Group, that found Rogers holding a two-point edge, but at the time those were regarded as outlier results.

Juxtapose that in the chart above with current polling for the 2026 Rogers/Ed-Sayed contest, all of which find El-Sayed leading.

As you can see, the polling trajectory one week before the 2024 election closely resembles what we are seeing today. In that race, the late movement broke in Rogers’ favor, though not by enough for him to secure victory. Whether a similar pattern emerges in 2026 remains to be seen.

Another important point of comparison is El-Sayed’s performance in the Democratic primary. Recall that he defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) by just nine-tenths of a percentage point in the Aug. 4 Democratic primary.

Across six individual polls conducted slightly more than a week before the election, with early voting already underway, El-Sayed held an average lead of 15 percentage points.

Obviously, these numbers represent a major polling miss in an election that tested Abdul El-Sayed’s strength with the electorate. Whether pollsters have corrected the errors evident in the Aug. 4 primary for the general election remains undetermined.

The one constant, however, is that the Michigan Senate race remains one of the most consequential contests in the country and will almost assuredly play a decisive role in determining the next Senate majority.

Senator Governors

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 22, 2026

A modern‑day record for open Senate seats is emerging in this election cycle. At least 16 states will seat a freshman Senator in January and that assumes no incumbent loses in November, which is an unlikely prognostication.

The number rises to 18 when including the two Senators, Marsha Blackburn (R‑TN) and Amy Klobuchar (D‑MN), who are favored to win their gubernatorial races. Once they take office in January, two additional Senate vacancies will occur, producing a pair of new Senators through gubernatorial appointment.

Speculation is already underway in both states regarding who the new Governors, or the current Governors should either Senator resign early, might select.

In Tennessee, the most frequently mentioned potential appointees – assuming Sen. Blackburn makes the appointment – are Rep. Tim Burchett (R‑Knoxville), Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs, and former CoreCivic CEO Damon Hininger.

Should Sen. Blackburn resign early and Gov. Bill Lee (R) make the appointment, speculation is largely absent. Blackburn has publicly stated she intends to appoint her own successor. Most observers believe she would choose Rep. Burchett, with Mayor Jacobs then running in a special election for the open 2nd District.

In Minnesota, assuming a Gov. Klobuchar appoints her own successor, early speculation centered on retiring Gov. Tim Walz. He quickly removed himself from consideration, however, saying he would “rather eat glass” than serve in the Senate.

Other rumored possibilities include Rep. Angie Craig (D‑Prior Lake), who lost the Senate nomination earlier this year; Secretary of State Steve Simon; Rep. Kelly Morrison (D‑Wayzata); and state Sen. Erin Maye Quade (D‑Apple Valley). They are among several prominent Democrats mentioned as potential appointees.

While Sen. Blackburn remains favored in Tennessee, the gubernatorial race is showing competitive signs. Independent candidate David Hatley, who describes himself as owning “the largest hot tub manufacturing operation on American soil,” has spent $12 million on his Senate campaign.

The most recent available Tennessee gubernatorial poll from TargetSmart (Oct. 9-12; 600 likely voters) showed Blackburn leading with 45 percent, well below the 50 percent threshold, followed by Democrat Jerri Green, a Memphis City Councilmember, at 36 percent, and Hatley at 10 percent. This survey, however, was conducted before most of Hatley’s spending took effect.

The Hatley offensive against Blackburn has instigated action: according to The Down‑Ballot political blog, Blackburn supporters have launched a $4 million independent expenditure attacking Hatley. Even so, Sen. Blackburn remains the likely winner, regardless of her final percentage.

In Minnesota, Sen. Klobuchar’s Republican opponent, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R‑Cold Spring), is polling closer than expected in a reliably Democratic state. A SurveyUSA poll for KSTP‑TV (Oct. 8-12; 718 likely voters) shows Klobuchar leading 48-41 percent, a surprisingly narrow margin in a cycle where Republican performance elsewhere has generally lagged previous benchmarks.

In her four US Senate campaigns, Klobuchar has averaged 60 percent of the vote. Therefore, she is running well below her previous support levels but is still expected to win.

The same is true for the rest of the Minnesota statewide ticket. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, running against former national sportscaster Michele Tafoya (R), is in a tight race and her polling margin continues to shrink. The rest of the Minnesota Democratic races are also closer than we typically see. Whether a more competitive election than expected influences who receives the Senate appointment remains to be seen.

With two additional new Senators arriving from Tennessee and Minnesota shortly after the next congressional session begins, it is likely that at least 20 percent of the new Senate will consist of freshman members, a very high percentage when compared with historical data.

Senate Snapshot

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 21, 2026

Senate

With the Democrats well positioned to capture the House majority, most of the political attention has shifted to the Senate races and whether the Democrats can gain the four Republican seats required to reach a 51-49 majority.

Much has already been written about the GOP-held seats now considered competitive, so with two weeks remaining in the election cycle, this is an appropriate moment to review the key contests.

Alaska

The Last Frontier ordinarily would not be considered a Democratic conversion opportunity, but former Rep. Mary Peltola has a credible chance to unseat GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.

Alaska’s election system adds complexity: the top four finishers advance from a single primary regardless of political party preference, and if none of the general election finalists reaches 50 percent, the Ranked Choice Voting process begins. Should RCV be triggered, the final outcome might not be known for roughly two weeks after election day.

The race became significantly more competitive after the primary, where Sen. Sullivan finished eight points behind Peltola. For the incumbent, one encouraging sign is primary turnout: only about 29 percent of registered voters participated, leaving substantial room for him to expand his support. Polling has been frequent, and Peltola generally posts small leads within the margin of error, underscoring how tight the contest remains.

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The Switch States

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026

As we move closer to Election Day, and with early voting now underway in 27 states, several statewide contests are beginning to gel. Notably, polling in four states suggests voters may be poised to split their tickets between Governor and US Senator, a pattern that has been rare in recent cycles.

In Iowa, the latest individual poll finds respondents leaning toward Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand for Governor. In three other states, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas, the Republican candidates lead the Governor’s race, while Democrats have the edge in the respective Senate campaigns.

The co/efficient polling firm conducted the Iowa poll (Oct. 15-19; 863 likely Iowa general election voters; live interview) and found GOP Rep. Hinson trending ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45 percent count. In the Governor’s race, the same polling sample respondents favor Democrat Sand over Republican businessman Zach Lahn by a reversed 49-45 percent split.

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South Dakota Close

By Jim Ellis — Monday, October 19, 2026

Late last week, a Concord Public Opinion Partners poll drew attention for producing a Montana US Senate result that showed Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme. A new Concord survey now reports a similarly competitive finding in the South Dakota Senate race.

The Montana poll, however, was largely debunked due to a sampling universe that skewed Democratic. In response, the Alme campaign released a counter‑survey from Peak Insights (Oct. 7-12; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) showing Alme ahead of Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead, 44-29-12 percent. This result aligns with all other polling of the race aside from Concord’s.

In South Dakota, Concord’s numbers fall within the range of other post‑primary surveys. The new study (conducted for Democrats for Education Reform; Oct. 6-8; 400 likely South Dakota voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Mike Rounds (R) in a virtual dead heat with Independent Brian Bengs, trailing 42-43 percent.

Within the same sampling universe, Republican Gov. Larry Rhoden leads Democratic former state legislator Dan Ahlers by 10 points, 48-38 percent. Concord also shows Attorney General Marty Jackley running ahead of Democrat Nikki Gronli by just a 44-41 percent spread, also a closer‑than‑expected margin for the open at‑large US House race.

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Montana Shock Poll

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 16, 2026

Senate

A new poll conducted for Independent Montana Senate candidate Seth Bodnar finds him, for the first time, leading Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme in the open statewide race. While the survey raises methodological questions, its topline results suggest the campaign’s closing weeks could prove more challenging for Republicans than initially expected.

The Concord Public Opinion Partners poll (Oct. 6-8; 405 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text), conducted for the Bodnar campaign, shows the Army Green Beret veteran and former University of Montana president running as an Independent, leading Alme, Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, and Libertarian candidate Kyle Austin by a 37-35-13-1% margin.

Controversy has surrounded this race since filing time. Sen. Steve Daines (R) initially filed for re‑election, but withdrew as the filing window closed. Standing with him at the Secretary of State’s office was Alme, who filed his own candidacy just as the period expired. The maneuver prevented any other Republican from entering the race, effectively rigging the primary for Alme. Unsurprisingly, the move angered GOP leaders and a substantial share of Republican base voters.

According to the Bodnar poll, those feelings persist: Alme’s approval rating stands at a dismal 31:48 favorable/unfavorable, compared to Bodnar’s 41:35. President Trump is also significantly underwater at 41:58 in a state he carried three times by landslide margins. Additionally, the generic congressional ballot favors Republicans by only one point, 37-36 percent.

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The Minnesota Dichotomy

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Click on the map to see an interactive version at
Dave’s Redistricting App.

One of the more intriguing states to watch in the coming election is Minnesota. Though long a reliably Democratic state, arguably the most reliable in the nation having last voted Republican for president in 1972, citizen unrest, a major governmental fraud scandal, and inconsistent polling data suggest the Northland could deliver electoral surprises.

Even the state’s premier politician, Senior Senator and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar, who has averaged 60 percent of the vote across her four US Senate victories, is underperforming expectations in her open gubernatorial bid.

While she remains favored to defeat state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R-Cold Spring) in the Nov. 3 general election, six post‑Aug. 11 primary polls place Klobuchar’s average support at just 48.8 percent, well below her historical statewide performance. Since the primary, her average lead over Demuth is only 8.7 points, and a smaller 6.7 points in the four surveys conducted entirely in September and October.

The Senate race is even more competitive. Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster for NBC and ESPN who began her media career covering Minnesota sports, is running a strong campaign against Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

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Democrats Expanding the Map

By Jim Ellis — Friday, October 9, 2026

Senate

For Democrats to claim a Senate majority, they must first protect all four of their vulnerable seats and then convert four Republican states. Because most of the competitive states lean strongly Republican, party leaders have focused on creating as many competitive contests as possible.

This cycle, they have persuaded their Senate nominees in Idaho, Nebraska, and South Dakota to withdraw, allowing Democrats to consolidate support behind Independent candidates who, in each case, are former Democrats.

They attempted the same maneuver in Montana, urging Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead to step aside in favor of Independent Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president, but she refused. Ironically, Montana is the state where the strategy might have been most effective because the Independent candidate here has the strongest background and campaign ability.

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Close Race Watch: Michigan Senate

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, October 1, 2026

With the Senate majority up for grabs, the Michigan race continues to be the national point race toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress.

If GOP nominee Mike Rogers wins the race, thus converting a Democratic seat to the Republican column, it becomes very difficult for Democrats to capture enough Republican seats elsewhere to overcome their current 53-47 deficit. If Democrat Abdul El Sayed prevails — combined with the North Carolina seat likely flipping to the Democrats — the path toward the net four seat gain needed to eclipse the Republican majority becomes considerably more achievable.

Republican Rogers, a former seven term Congressman who lost the 2024 open Senate race by just 19,006 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast despite being outspent by a 6:1 ratio, returns with a stronger chance to win in 2026.

Democrats nominated former Wayne County Health, Human, and Veterans Services Department Director El Sayed in a much closer primary than polling had projected. Nine pollsters found him leading by an average of 15 points heading into the August primary, yet he won by only one point — and even failed to carry his home county.

In the general election, polling consistently shows a small El Sayed lead, but those numbers may be deceiving. Polling aggregators — 270toWin, Decision Desk HQ, FiftyPlusOne, RealClearPolitics, and the Silver Bulletin — place his cycle to date advantage between 3.0 and 3.2 points. Since the Aug. 4 primary, the average has slipped to 2.8.

For comparison, at the beginning of October during Rogers’ 2024 campaign, Democrat Elissa Slotkin’s polling advantage averaged 6.4 points across 35 surveys conducted from the Aug. 6 primary through Oct. 1. In the final month, Rogers nearly erased the entire margin, with Slotkin ultimately winning by just three-tenths of one percentage point.

Therefore, combining Rogers under-polling in the 2024 general election and El-Sayed’s considerable over-polling in the 2026 Democratic primary suggests that we will again see another close finish in this most critical of Senate campaigns.

Resources are not a problem for either nominee. Through the July 15 pre-primary Federal Election Commission disclosure report, El-Sayed had raised $14.5 million while Rogers had attracted $10.8 million. Because El-Sayed had to overcome two strong Democratic opponents, his available assets were less during the last reporting period. He held $2.2 million, most of which would be spent in the final days before the Aug. 4 primary, whereas Rogers had $4.5 million, most of which he held over for the general election.

Outside spending is heavy on both sides, with media reports suggesting roughly $55 million has been spent on Rogers’ behalf and about $45 million aiding El Sayed.

With President Trump’s approval numbers in the lowest range of his career and gas and grocery prices remaining high, the political climate — and Michigan’s statewide voting history — cuts in El Sayed’s favor. Conversely, El Sayed’s weak primary performance relative to his polling, and his failure to carry Wayne County — signaling limited strength within the Black electorate — gives Rogers a legitimate opening to assemble a winning coalition.

As is the case in virtually every competitive race this cycle, the candidate who maximizes turnout within their own party, rather than mastering the difficult task of persuading wavering voters from the other side, will prevail. At this point in the pivotal Michigan Senate race, it remains to be seen who will perform better.