Tag Archives: Tennessee

Redistricting Review, Post Virginia

Virginia Congressional Districts / Dave’s Redistricting App (6D-5R map)

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 11, 2026

The Virginia state Supreme Court decision to uphold the lower court ruling, finding that the legislature violated its own rules by rushing a referendum onto the ballot and, in the process, violated the Old Dominion Constitution, has significantly altered the outlook for the House midterm elections.

Instead of the cumulative effect of the new congressional maps being largely a wash, with neither party gaining a significant number of seats, Republicans are now positioned to net between 8 and 12 seats. Added to their current 220 seats, the new maps could expand their current prospective majority to more than 230 seats.

The following is an update on where the affected states stand in terms of 2026 electoral outlook under the new congressional maps, Starting with Virginia first:

Virginia

On Friday last week, the state Supreme Court invalidated the statewide redistricting referendum vote, upholding the lower court ruling that said the legislature violated its own rules and the state constitution in rushing the referendum to the ballot. While congressional redistricting is now effectively closed for this year here, meaning the 6D-5R map will remain in place for the 2026 elections, the process could be revisited in time to produce a new Virginia map for the 2028 cycle.

Certainly, the state Supreme Court ruling is a big win for Republicans, but the victory is likely to be short lived. For 2026, however, expect all Virginia incumbents to be favored for re-election.

California; Texas

The nation’s two most populous states became the focal points of the early redistricting battles, with party leaders in both parties predicting that their new maps would yield a net gain of five seats for their respective parties.

A closer examination of the partisan data and voting histories in the affected areas, however, suggests that gaining five seats under these new maps may be ambitious. What does appear likely, however, whether the eventual gain is three, four, or five seats, is that the two states will largely cancel each other out in terms of national seat gains.

Alabama

After the US Supreme Court’s ruling in the Callais v. Louisiana established clearer criteria for the construction of minority districts, the Alabama legislature reinstated a congressional map it had originally passed in 2023, only to have it later struck down by a court as a partisan gerrymander. Under the Supreme Court’s new directive, however, the plan could no longer be characterized as a racial gerrymander.

There is one remaining legal hurdle for the map to overcome, so it is possible that Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could suspend the congressional primaries until the map issue is resolved. Campaigns competing in the regularly scheduled May 19 primary for other offices would likely still be allowed to proceed.

The 2023 map would eliminate the majority minority 2nd District that a previous court had ordered drawn. Assuming no further legal complications arise, Alabama’s congressional delegation would likely revert to a 6R-1D partisan split. Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D-Montgomery) 2nd District would be dismantled and shifted back into southeastern Alabama, like its configuration during the previous decade.

Florida

The new Florida map has cleared the legislative process and now must face a legal challenge before the state Supreme Court. The plaintiffs are expected to file suit pertaining to the state ballot initiative voters approved to establish criteria for drawing legislative and congressional districts.

It is probable the court will rule that the map, which is predicted to net the Republicans three to four seats, is a partisan gerrymander with a projected 24R-4D partisan split; but other provisions of the voter-passed initiative may violate the SCOTUS’ Louisiana ruling. But the new map will likely stand for now, and net the GOP three to four seats.

Louisiana

The Bayou State is at the center of the determinative racial gerrymandering ruling, and Louisiana is now moving toward adopting a new congressional map that would produce a 5R-1D partisan split; thus, returning to the configuration that existed before the series of court rulings that ultimately reached the US Supreme Court.

The new map is reportedly being designed to preserve a Baton Rouge-anchored seat for Rep. Cleo Fields (D) while eliminating the New Orleans-based district that Rep. Troy Carter (D) currently holds.

Mississippi

Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has called a special redistricting legislative session, but only for the purpose of redrawing the state’s Supreme Court districts.

With the primary election already held on March 10, ordering a new round of congressional redistricting would effectively invalidate the 2026 primary, requiring all candidates to re-file and compete under a revised map. As a result, it appears unlikely that Mississippi congressional redistricting will take place in 2026.

Missouri

The Missouri map was enacted months ago, but opponents gathered enough signatures to qualify a repeal initiative for the ballot. The Missouri Supreme Court is now considering whether to stay the new map pending the vote or allow it to remain in effect for the 2026 election cycle. In the meantime, candidates have already filed under the current district lines.

If the map is allowed to stand, Republicans are expected to gain one seat in the delegation at the expense of veteran Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Kansas City), though the Congressman has already filed for re-election. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the new 5th District has a partisan lean of 56.6R – 41.1D.

North Carolina

The Tar Heel State was among the first to complete the redistricting process, and the new congressional map will stand. The revised plan effectively shifts one district from Democratic to Republican control. Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) now sees his eastern North Carolina district move from a lean Democratic seat to one that is likely to favor a Republican in the general election.

In 2024, Rep. Davis won re-election by a margin of less than 1.5 percentage points. Retired Army officer Laurie Buckhout (R) is returning for a rematch, and this time the political landscape is more favorable to her chances of unseating the Congressman. With North Carolina’s primary having been held on March 3, the general election field is now set, and campaigning is underway.

South Carolina

While Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has said he would not call the legislature into a special redistricting session, lawmakers — still meeting in regular session — are moving forward with efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map.

Because the session is nearing adjournment, new legislation, including any proposal to adopt a revised congressional redistricting plan, would require a two-thirds vote of members to be added to the legislative calendar.

Republicans believe they have the votes to advance a 7R-0D plan from the House of Representatives, though they may be slightly short of the necessary support in the state Senate. If the new redistricting map is to pass, it will need to do so this week.

Tennessee

The Tennessee legislature and Governor passed a new 9R-0D congressional map soon after the Supreme Court ruled on the Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. With the Tennessee primary not scheduled until Aug. 6, the new map will stand. As a result, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis), the state’s only remaining Democratic member of the House, faces long odds of returning to the next Congress.

Utah

Months ago, the Utah court system invalidated the state’s 4R–0D congressional map, ruling that the legislature had disregarded voter-approved criteria for drawing district boundaries. As a result, the courts imposed a new map that creates a Salt Lake City–based district that Democrats are expected to win. Overall, Utah’s redistricting is projected to result in a net gain of one Democratic seat.

Redistricting: Tennessee & Alabama

Click on the map above to see a larger image size, or go here to see the map on the Tennessee Legislature’s site: https://www.capitol.tn.gov/common/img/US-House_2026_Proposed.jpg

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 8, 2026

Tennessee

The Volunteer State’s legislature passed a new congressional map, and Gov. Bill Lee (R) signed the legislation into law late this week. The map will likely produce a new 9R-0D congressional delegation.

Principally, the map divides the previous 9th District that contained the city of Memphis and was almost wholly contained in Shelby County into sections. The draw creates a new 9th CD that houses part of Shelby County but then stretches to the outer Nashville suburbs. Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) has represented the 9th CD since the beginning of 2007 as a Caucasian in a 60 percent African American district.

Despite having a white Representative, the 9th was a protected majority minority district under the Voting Rights Act. With last week’s US Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana case, the TN-9 District may be redrawn because race can now be used as a factor in redistricting only if the underlying situation involves prisons or if there is demonstrative evidence that a racial community historically has been directly barred access to voting. Since neither of the criteria exists in this area, the new map was drawn.

The new 9th stretches from the south Memphis suburbs easterly along the Mississippi border and past the city of Shelbyville before turning north to move into the outer Nashville suburbs found in Franklin County. The seat transforms from one where Kamala Harris attracted 70.8 percent of the district vote to a CD where President Trump would have defeated her with a 59.9 – 38.8 percent margin.

Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Columbia) 5th District is also vastly different under the new map. Part of the reason for the drastic change was to give Rep. Ogles a different Republican district to help him survive certain political fallout that was endangering his re-election chances.

The 5th, while continuing to begin in the area south and west of Nashville, then moves northwest to capture part of the city of Clarksville near the Kentucky border before moving to the Missouri border and then south along the Arkansas border all the way through Shelby County and the city of Memphis to Mississippi. The new 5th would have yielded President Trump a 60.9 – 37.8 percent win, a slight uptick over the previous 5th CD where Trump defeated Harris, 58.1 – 40.3 percent.

The new map changes every congressional district in Tennessee’s central and western regions. The most negatively affected seat for an incumbent is Rep. David Kustoff’s (R-Germantown), who sees his 8th CD that occupies most of far western Tennessee and stretches from the Kentucky border to Mississippi into one that has a more west to east construction.

In terms of partisanship, Kustoff takes a major hit but would still have a solidly Republican district. Under the previous 8th, President Trump defeated Harris by a whopping 70.0 – 28.9 percent spread. Under the new plan, the Trump victory margin would have been 59.4 – 39.2 percent or a negative swing from Rep. Kustoff’s perspective of a net 20.9 points. Still, the new 8th will be rated as safely Republican.

Aside from Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Kingsport) northeastern District 1 where President Trump would have captured 78.4 percent of the vote, the remaining 8 congressional districts all fall between 67.2 percent Trump to 59.4 percent.

With the Tennessee candidate filing deadline already passed, but the state’s primary not until Aug. 6, the Governor has plenty of time to change the US House filing schedule in order to implement the new map for the 2026 election.

Alabama

Decisions were made with regard to Alabama redistricting, too. Because this state is in precisely the same situation as Louisiana, their remedy will be similar. Instead of drawing a new map, however, the legislature says it will revert to a plan passed in 2023, but which was declared a racial gerrymander.

With the ruling criteria established from the Callais v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court, the legislative leaders believe the previously drawn 2023 map will be legal under the definitive SCOTUS ruling. Therefore, they have reinstituted the plan. The question remains as to whether a court will approve the maneuver in time for the 2026 election.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, so obviously the Governor will have to establish a new nomination date for the state’s US House races. Should the 2023 map stand, it is likely that freshman Rep. Shomari Figures (D-Montgomery) will be the odd man out, since this map basically restores the footprint of the 2021 map. This means that both the cities of Mobile and Montgomery will anchor their own districts as opposed to being placed in the same 1st District as is the current case.

The change to the 2023 map would very likely return Alabama to a 6R-1D delegation as compared to the current 5R-2D division.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

TN-7: Republican Van Epps Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025

Special Election

Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night in the TN-7 special election.

In what was turning into the most important special congressional election of the latter half of 2025, former state cabinet official and Afghan War veteran Matt Van Epps scored a 53.9 – 45.0 percent victory last night over state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) securing the district for the GOP and avoiding a Democratic partisan upset of national proportions.

The last published poll, from Emerson College (Nov. 22-24; 600 likely TN-7 special election voters; multiple sampling techniques), found only a two-point spread in Van Epps’ favor, 48-46 percent. Outside allies from both parties individually spent seven figures to promote their ideological choice understanding that the victory stakes were becoming unusually high for what should be a reliable Republican district.

Though the 7th CD was viewed as a safely Republican seat, Democrats, riding high with their big victories from the Nov. 4 elections in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, believed they had a legitimate chance to record an upset win.

Though Van Epps did not reach the 60 percent level that President Trump and resigned Rep. Mark Green (R) both attained in the 2024 general election, last night’s result was very close to the district’s partisan lean.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 55.1R – 42.2D partisan division for TN-7, which is close to where the candidates landed last night. The district performed as expected. Van Epps carried 13 of the district’s 14 counties, losing only Davidson, which is the Democrats’ base and contains Rep. Behn’s state House district in the city of Nashville.

Before 2021 redistricting, the 7th was more Republican. Democrats were added to the 7th in the most recent redraw to make the adjacent 5th District winnable for a GOP candidate, thereby lessening the 7th’s Republican strength.

Turnout for this special election was extremely high: 179,770 votes counted with 99 percent of the precincts reporting according to the latest available report. Typically, special congressional elections draw around 100,000 voters. Here, the high spending from both sides contributed to the large turnout and also led to the Republicans successfully turning out its Trump vote base, something that was routinely not happening in other 2025 elections.

In those contests, mostly at the state legislative level we saw a few major Democratic upsets occur. Seeing such results was evidence that the Trump voter base failed to participate in sufficient numbers to carry Republican candidates in elections without the President on the ballot. The TN-7 win may give the Republican strategists the formula they need for improved GOP performances in next year’s midterm elections.

The House partisan division now moves to 220 Republicans and 213 Democrats, with two Democratic vacancies. The 18th District of Texas remains without an incumbent (death of Rep. Sylvester Turner) until the Jan. 31 runoff election. New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill resigned her 11th District US House seat after being elected her state’s Governor.

On Jan. 5, the Republican conference recedes to 219 when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is scheduled to resign. The House will likely return to a full 435-member compliment in April when the projected special election calendars will be set for the purpose of filling the latter vacancies.

Dec. 2 Special Election
Taking Center Stage in Tennessee

Tennessee Congressional Districts (Click on map to see interactive version at: Dave’s Redistricting App.)

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

US House

The Dec. 2 special election to fill the Tennessee open congressional seat should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, but new polling data and outside money coming into the district for both sides infer this contest will be closer than expected.

We’ve seen two recent polls, both producing similar ballot test results. The first is from Workbench Strategies for Democratic nominee, state Rep. Aftyn Behn’s campaign (Oct. 15-19; 400 likely TN-7 special election voters), that found Republican former state cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps leading by a 51-41 percent clip.

The second poll, from Impact Research and taken within the same time frame (Oct. 16-19; 700 likely TN-7 special election voters), produced a similar 52-44 percent result in Van Epps’ favor. The polls suggest the race could become closer as the margin between the two candidates are at least slightly under where the Republican nominee should stand at this point in the campaign.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District was changed dramatically in the 2021 redistricting plan. In order to convert the Nashville-anchored 5th District to the Republicans, the 7th CD had to give up GOP territory. Therefore, what was typically a high 60s Republican seat became a high 50s district.

The 7th District from the previous decade carried a partisan lean of 66.1R – 31.6D (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) when then-Reps. Marsha Blackburn (R) and Mark Green (R) successively held the seat. Blackburn, of course, is now in the Senate and running for Governor. Green resigned from Congress earlier in the year to pursue an opportunity in the private sector, thereby opening the current 7th District for the special election.

The 2021 TN-7 version for the current decade posts a much different partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians. The current numbers yield a 55.1R – 42.2D, or a net Democratic net gain of 21.6 percentage points. This means instead of a Republican candidate finishing near 70 percent, the new numbers would suggest victories in the mid to high 50s.

While the statistics show that a typical Republican candidate should still win easily under the new 7th District boundaries, and so far, they have (President Trump ’24: 60-38%; Rep. Green ’24: 59-38 percent), anything can happen in a low turnout special election. Democrats are riding high with momentum coming from the November 4th elections in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City, and they believe the trend will continue in Tennessee.

The Virginia turnout numbers are telling and could give us an insight into what might happen in Tennessee. The final Virginia numbers actually showed a two percent drop-off in turnout when compared to 2021. The conclusion was Republican election day turnout proved poor, thus leading to the landslide Democratic victory.

The situation again dictates that the Tennessee Republicans will have to find a better way of convincing what is termed “the casual Trump voter” — that is, the person who will vote when President Trump is on the ballot but typically is not a regular voter — to participate in the special election.

While only spending $188,000 to win the special primary in a four-way Democratic field that featured two other state Representatives, Behn eked out a close victory with just 27.9 percent of the vote. The fourth-place finisher garnered 23.1 percent to illustrate how evenly distributed the votes were among contenders.

The situation is different for the special general. Though financial reports past Sept. 30 are not yet available, it is clear that Rep. Behn will have adequate resources to compete.

She can also count on support from left-of-center national organizations coming into the district to independently help her effort, but such is now being countered to a significant degree from at least two organizations on the right, the Club for Growth and an organization entitled Conservatives for American Excellence.

The stakes are now high for this special election in a Republican district. It is one thing for Republicans to lose big in three anti-Trump domains such as New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City. It is quite another if the Democratic nominee prevails in a special election from a strong Republican seat. With early voting now underway, the closing weeks for this campaign will prove quite interesting.

TN-7 Special Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025

House

Republican Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded TN-7 Republican primary. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win for the Democrats in TN-7.

Last night, the 2025-26 special election cycle featured the preliminary vote from the third of four congressional special elections, and we now see nominees from both parties emerging in Tennessee’s vacated 7th District.

For the Republicans, former Tennessee cabinet secretary Matt Van Epps, who President Trump endorsed over the weekend, easily won the crowded Republican primary. On the Democratic side, state Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) scored a close win over a non-elected official and two fellow Nashville area state Representatives.

Van Epps and Behn now advance into the special general election scheduled for Dec. 2. The winner will fill the balance of the current term and of course be eligible to run for a full term in the regular 2026 election cycle. Former Congressman Mark Green (R) resigned in July to accept a position in the private sector, thus creating the vacancy and necessitating a special election.

The 7th District is strongly Republican, but clearly the Democrats are going to make a run to score an upset. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the partisan lean yields a 55.1 – 42.1 Republican to Democratic ratio. Both President Trump and Congressman Green exceeded the partisan lean in 2024. Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the 7th District, 60.4 – 38.1 percent. Rep. Green was re-elected to a fourth term with a similar 59.5 – 38.1 percent victory margin.

The 7th includes 11 western Tennessee counties and parts of three others. One of the split counties is Davidson, which means part of the city of Nashville lies within the 7th District’s domain. The other major population center is Montgomery County, which houses the city of Clarksville, home of former Rep. Green.

The primary turnout suggests that this race could be close in December. The total Republican participation factor was 36,854 individuals. Total Democratic turnout was 31,002, not far behind the GOP figure. The aggregate turnout for the two primaries was 67,856, which is just about average for a special congressional primary when measured against similar elections around the country. The general election turnout is expected to be higher but may be under 100,000 voters if the primary is any indication.

In comparison, the 2024 general election congressional turnout was 322,656, obviously way ahead of last night’s report. In the last midterm, 2022, which would be a better comparison since we are currently in a midterm cycle, the participation figure was 180,822, or only 56 percent of the presidential election cycle turnout, which is a larger drop-off rate (44 percent) than average. Usually, we see drop-offs from a presidential year to the succeeding midterm in the 35 percent range.

Van Epps recorded majority support in the Republican primary at 51.5 percent. His closest competitors, state Reps. Jody Barrett (R-Dickson) and Gino Bulso (R-Brentwood), received 25.3 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively. None of the other eight candidates managed to reach six percent support, though state Rep. Lee Reeves (R-Franklin) dropped out of the race after President Trump endorsed Van Epps. Rep. Reeves then also publicly supported the eventual winner.

For the Democrats, we saw a much tighter battle. State Rep. Behn received 27.9 percent of the partisan vote. Closely behind was businessman Darden Copeland with 24.9 percent. Two other state Representatives, Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) and Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville), also were not far behind, finishing with 24.2 percent and 23.1 percent, respectively.

It is likely that Rep. Behn will now be able to unite the Democratic Party for the special general election. Because of how the primary unfolded, it is anticipated that the general election may be closer than the historical data would suggest.

Van Epps appears to be a strong candidate, but his campaign organization will need to substantially increase Republican turnout in order to secure the seat not only for the special general election but also for future campaigns.

Senate Turnover

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 22, 2025

Senate

Without any incumbent losing in the 2026 election, it is possible we will see as many as a dozen new Senators come to Washington when the 120th Congress convenes. Obviously, the number will grow even higher should any incumbent fall to a challenger, and further retirements as state candidate filing deadlines begin to approach are of course possible.

At this point, eight Senators have announced they will not seek re-election, but the cycle’s wild card is potentially seeing five Senators running for Governor in their respective states. This unusually high number includes four Senators who are not in-cycle, meaning they would not have to risk their current position to enter the state race.

Currently, Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) are announced gubernatorial candidates. Two more, Sens. Alex Padilla (D-CA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), have made public statements admitting they are considering entering open Governor’s races in their states. From this entire group, only Sen. Tuberville is eschewing re-election to run for Governor.

Sen. Padilla said he will wait to determine if he will launch a gubernatorial bid until the special redistricting vote scheduled for Nov. 4. Just this week, Sen. Murkowski again said she “isn’t ruling out” running for Governor of Alaska and made the point of having the “luxury” of waiting until deeper in the election cycle to make a final decision.

All of the Senators running or potentially running for Governor have or would have a strong chance of winning. This means that all but one would have the opportunity of appointing their own successor to the Senate upon election. Already speculation is running high in places like Colorado and Tennessee as to who will be the chosen replacement. Alabama voters will choose their next Senator in the 2026 regular election.

Of the 35 Senate races in the ’26 election cycle, including the two special elections in Florida and Ohio, Republicans must defend 22 of the in-cycle seats as compared to just 13 for the Democrats. Today, it appears that only three are in the toss-up category, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina, with the remaining 32 being safe for the incumbent party or at least leaning in its direction.

A Georgia poll released just this week (Quantus Insights; Sept. 9-12; 624 likely Georgia general election voters; online and text) projects Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) locked in a 38-38 percent tie.

In the open Michigan race, Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the 2024 Senate contest by just 19,006 votes (three-tenths of a percentage point), has an unencumbered path to the Republican nomination, while the Democrats are embroiled in a three-way primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4.

Recent North Carolina polling data (Change Research; Sept. 2-8; 855 likely North Carolina voters; online) finds former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leading ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley 48-41 percent in a race to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R) that is expected to be close through the entire campaign.

In the races involving Senators running for Governor, Sen. Tuberville to date faces no major Alabama Republican primary opposition in his open race. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. A Democratic nominee will have a difficult time overcoming Sen. Tuberville in the general election. The party hopes to recruit former Sen. Doug Jones into the race, but he lost to Tuberville 60-40 percent in the 2020 Senate campaign. Therefore, Sen. Tuberville appears as a lock to win the Governorship next year.

Colorado Sen. Bennet would have little trouble in his state’s open Governor’s election as incumbent Jared Polis (D) is also term-limited in 2026. In the Democratic primary, Attorney General Phil Weiser remains in the race, and he is Sen. Bennet’s strongest potential opponent. The only published poll of this campaign came from the Global Strategy Group in June (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and posted Sen. Bennet to a strong 53-22 percent advantage over Weiser.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn faces GOP primary opposition in the person of Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville). The latest poll comes from Quantus Insights (Aug. 5-7; 600 registered Tennessee voters; online & text) and posts Sen. Blackburn to a large 35-6 percent lead for the party nomination.

California Sen. Padilla would be a very formidable candidate, and likely the favorite, in the open Governor’s race to replace incumbent Gavin Newsom (D). A large jungle primary field awaits with no candidate so far even reaching 20 percent in any poll. The ostensible leader by a small percentage is former Rep. Katie Porter (D), but a Padilla entry would almost certainly allow him to advance into the general election. There, he would be a big favorite even in a two-way Democratic November campaign.

Sen. Murkowski, on the other hand, should she run for Governor, could face major general election opposition. Waiting in the wings is Democratic former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola. Even though she lost a close 2024 general election, Peltola remains a popular figure and would clearly be the Democrats’ best option to convert the Governor’s position away from the Republicans. As in other discussed situations, incumbent Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek re-election.

The addition of multiple Senators running as candidates for Governor across the nation changes the 2026 Senate election cycle. Therefore, it is probable we will see several more freshman Senators in 2027 than the regular election will produce.

Special Election Season Begins

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 8, 2025

Special Elections

As we know, the House has four vacant seats and the first in a series of rapid special elections will occur tomorrow.

In Virginia’s 11th District, the battle to replace late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) will largely be anticlimactic. The VA-11 seat is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 67.2D – 30.7R; Harris ’24: 65.7 – 31.4 percent), so an easy win for Fairfax County Supervisor and former Connolly chief of staff James Walkinshaw (D) is a prediction that all political prognosticators share.

The district is fully contained within Fairfax County and includes Fairfax City. A 2:1 Walkinshaw victory is expected over former FBI agent Stewart Whitson (R).

Two weeks after tomorrow’s Virginia special election, on Sept. 23, voters in the Tucson, Arizona area will participate in an election to replace the late Rep. Raul Grijalva (D), who died in March. The clear favorite to succeed Grijalva is the special election’s Democratic nominee, Adelita Grijalva, the Congressman’s daughter who is a former Pima County Supervisor. Ms. Grijalva won the special Democratic primary in July with 61.5% of the vote over four intra-party opponents.

As in VA-11, Arizona’s 7th Congressional District is strongly Democratic. The DRA partisan lean is 65.5D – 32.3R. Kamala Harris carried this district, 60.5 – 38.4 percent, in a place where she lost the statewide vote. Just like VA-11, this district’s Democratic nominee is expected to win in a proportion consistent with the partisan lean calculation.

Once Walkinshaw and Ms. Grijalva are sworn into office, the partisan division will feature 219 Republicans, 214 Democrats with two remaining vacancies (1D; 1R).

On Oct. 7 in western Tennessee, we will see perhaps the most interesting special primary election to date, as multiple candidates from both parties are seriously vying for their party’s nomination. On the favored Republican side, 11 contenders are competing including three state Representatives and a Montgomery County Commissioner. For the Democrats, three Nashville area state Representatives and a businessman have qualified for the ballot.

Though the voter history suggests a comfortable Republican win will result in TN-7 (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 55.1R – 42.1D; President Trump: 60.4 – 38.1 percent), Democrats believe they have a chance to pull an upset. They cite increased Democratic performances around the country in special elections as the basis for their political optimism.

Tennessee features partisan special primaries, so no inter-party upset will occur on Oct. 7. The state does not include a runoff for party nominations, so it is likely we will see a pair of nominees coming forward who do not earn majority support within their own partisan electorate. The special general election is scheduled for Dec. 2.

The Volunteer State’s 7th District contains nine counties and parts of three others west of Nashville and stretches from Kentucky to Alabama on a north to south plane. The CD includes part of Nashville city in Davidson County along with the Clarksville, Parsons, and Waynesboro municipalities.

Incumbent Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigned the office earlier in the year to accept a position in the private sector. Before Green, Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R), now a gubernatorial candidate, represented the 7th CD for 16 years.

The final special election, scheduled for Nov. 4 in Houston, features 35 candidates (22 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and 6 minor party or Independent contenders). The candidate filing deadline was Sept. 3, so it remains to be seen how many of the 35 officially qualify for the ballot.

The TX-18 contest to replace the late Representative and former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) is certainly the most unique among the special elections.

Assuming a runoff will be required from the large field since no one is likely to secure majority support in the initial vote, Gov. Greg Abbott will then schedule the secondary election between the top two finishers when it becomes a mathematical certainty that no one received a majority. This means the runoff may not be held until early January.

While the new Texas map has been adopted into law, it must still pass the legal tests. If so, the eventual special election winner, and it will almost certainly be a Democratic candidate from the party’s safest Texas seat (DRA partisan lean: 73.6D – 24.4R), will immediately most likely be forced to face veteran Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) to compete in the regular election Democratic primary for a full term.

The regular election Democratic primary will occur in a newly configured 18th District on March 3rd that only contains 26 percent of the current 18th and 65 percent of Rep. Green’s 9th CD.

The new redistricting plan has certainly made life difficult for whoever wins the 18th District special election. The eventual winner having a short tenure in Congress appears likely and will prove a side effect of the 2025 Texas redistricting effort.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.