Tag Archives: Iowa

Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

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By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

Republican‑led states will have incentive to adjust their maps to limit Democratic gains to a single cycle, while Democratic‑led states will seek to make their newly elected members more secure heading into 2028.

Of the 36 gubernatorial races, 15 appear competitive or moderately competitive. In those states, the 2026 outcomes could materially influence the 2027 redistricting picture. Redistricting will not occur in two of the competitive gubernatorial states, Alaska and Vermont, because both have at-large congressional districts.

Arizona

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) is in a competitive race but continues to hold polling leads over Rep. Andy Biggs (R‑Gilbert), thus positioning her as the favorite for re‑election based on current data. Republicans maintain narrow majorities in both legislative chambers, but if Democrats were to gain control in November, movement on redistricting could follow.

Arizona was one of the first states to adopt an independent citizens’ redistricting commission, yet the 2026 cycle has shown that several states have found ways to maneuver around their commissions in order to implement new maps.

Florida

Polling shows a close Governor’s race in early October, but pollsters have badly missed the Florida elections for the past four cycles. Republicans have big majorities in both legislative chambers, so it is unlikely that the state will be a factor in 2027 redistricting irrespective of the gubernatorial outcome.

Georgia

Georgia was among the states that initially considered redrawing its maps after the Callais decision, but legislative leaders ultimately chose not to proceed. They later announced plans to call a post‑election special session, yet no such scheduling action has been taken.

If Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms were to win the Governor’s race, legislative leaders would likely move quickly to convene and advance a map designed to add two Republican seats while Gov. Brian Kemp (R) remains in office.

Iowa

Democrat Rob Sand is well positioned to win the governorship, but it remains unlikely that redistricting will occur in a state that has effectively ceded the map‑drawing process to a legislative algorithm. Republican majorities in both legislative chambers are strong, so even with a Sand victory, it is improbable that we will see a redistricting effort regardless of how the competitive congressional elections unfold.

Kansas

Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term‑limited this year, giving Republicans a strong opportunity to reclaim the governorship. In most polling, state Senate President Ty Masterson (R‑El Dorado) holds an advantage over state Sen. Cindy Holscher (D‑Olathe). With Republicans maintaining solid majorities in both legislative chambers, a Masterson victory would likely place redistricting on the table for 2027. The result could be a one‑seat Republican gain.

Michigan

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) is poised to succeed term‑limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), placing the focus squarely on the legislature. Democrats hold a narrow majority in the state Senate, while Republicans control the House. If the latter chamber flips, Democrats could attempt a redistricting move.

Michigan has an independent redistricting commission, but as noted earlier, several states have successfully maneuvered around their citizens’ panels in 2026. Should Democrats capture the state House majority, Michigan will become a state to watch in the redistricting arena.

Nebraska

Gov. Jim Pillen (R) faces competition in this cycle but is still expected to prevail. Republicans were just one vote short of advancing a redistricting plan in 2026, so any changes in the unicameral legislature could determine whether a new map is implemented. With the open 2nd District likely to elect a Democrat next month, Republicans would have added partisan incentive to pursue a redraw in 2027.

Nevada

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is in a tight re‑election campaign, and if Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford were to unseat him, redistricting could quickly emerge as an issue in the new legislative session. Democrats appear positioned to retain their majorities in both legislative chambers.

Should they also capture the state’s lone Republican congressional district, the Reno‑anchored 2nd District, a Democratic legislature and Governor would likely move to redraw the map in order to make that seat more secure for their new Representative. Whether redistricting occurs in 2027 will largely hinge on the gubernatorial outcome.

New York

The Empire State will be particularly interesting to watch next year on the redistricting front. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) is favored to win re‑election, and the legislature will remain solidly Democratic. Although New York has a redistricting commission, Democrats believe they can draw additional Democratic‑leaning districts.

Their challenge, however, is the state’s significant population loss concentrated entirely in New York City. According to mid‑decade Census Bureau estimates, New York has lost more than 200,000 residents, all from NYC, while the rest of the state has experienced modest growth. As a result, efforts to increase Democratic seats when the party’s anchor population base is likely to lose representation in the next apportionment may prove more difficult than a cursory overview suggests.

Ohio

The Buckeye State conducts redistricting through a bipartisan commission composed of seven elected officials. Because the panel adopted a new map with unanimous support earlier this year, that plan can remain in place for the rest of the decade. As a result, it is unlikely the Commission will reopen the contentious process in 2027.

Oregon

Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is unexpectedly locked in a very tight re‑election race, but redistricting is unlikely to occur regardless of the outcome. The Democratic majority has already maximized its advantage under the current congressional map, leaving little room for improvement. As a result, a 2027 redistricting effort does not appear likely.

Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is likely to win a fourth term, though by a closer‑than‑expected margin. Republicans will retain control of the state Senate, but their House majority may narrow. Because the congressional map was redrawn this year, it is unlikely that redistricting will make a return appearance in 2027.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the gubernatorial and legislative elections will directly determine whether redistricting occurs. The state Supreme Court declined to act on a case that could have triggered a redraw this year, so a Democratic sweep in November is the most plausible path for redistricting to move to the forefront in 2027.

The Governor’s race between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) and Rep. Tom Tiffany (R‑Minocqua) remains tight, and Republicans currently hold tentative majorities in both legislative chambers. Should Democrats gain control and pursue a redraw, they could potentially add two congressional seats.

Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

Senate: 10 Toss-Up States

By Jim Ellis — Friday, September 18, 2026

With new polling arriving almost daily, an unusually large number of Senate races are now entering the toss‑up realm. Early and mid‑September surveys indicate that 10 Senate campaigns currently fall within a three‑point margin, placing them squarely inside the traditional polling margin of error and classifying each as too close to call.

Three of these 10 toss‑ups are in states that typically vote Democratic at the federal level. This dynamic significantly complicates the Democrats’ path to erasing the Republicans’ net four‑seat advantage. Because Republicans would retain the majority in a 50-50 Senate, Democrats must reach 51 seats to claim control.

Under that math, Democrats would need to win nine of the 10 toss‑up races, assuming former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) converts the open North Carolina seat. If Cooper does not win NC, Democrats would need to sweep all 10 toss‑ups to reach a majority.

Below are the toss‑up states, listed alphabetically, along with the September polls that place each race within the three‑point margin of error.

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) performed poorly in Alaska’s Aug. 18 jungle primary, finishing 8.1 percentage points behind former at‑large Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Since then, however, he has rebounded.

The co/efficient September survey (Sept. 14-17; 799 likely Alaska voters) now finds Sen. Sullivan ahead 48-46 percent. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted one day earlier (Sept. 13-14; 1,188 likely voters) showed the race tied at 39 percent apiece.

Iowa

In the most recent Iowa survey, another from the busy co/efficient firm (Sept. 14-16; 831 likely Iowa voters), Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑Marion/Cedar Rapids) leads state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) 46-42 percent. Rasmussen Reports, however, produced a very different result in its Sept. 8-10 statewide poll (1,031 likely voters), finding Rep. Turek ahead 45-40 percent.

Though neither poll falls within the three‑point toss‑up range, the fact that two reputable pollsters show opposite leaders strongly suggests that the true state of the race is closer than either individual survey indicates.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) has trailed for much of the race since Democrats forced nominee Graham Platner out and transferred the Senate party nomination to former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The latest polling shows a contest that has tightened considerably.

Quantus Insights (Sept. 14-15; 621 likely voters) reported Sen. Collins claiming a one‑point edge, 48-47 percent. Just days earlier, Rasmussen Reports (Sept. 8-10; 1,033 likely Maine voters) found Jackson leading 46-45 percent.

Michigan

Though Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed has held a slight lead in several post‑primary polls, he has yet to consistently break 48 percent in political polling. Former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) remains consistently within the polling margin of error.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Michigan voters) shows El‑Sayed ahead 48-46 percent. A Washington Post survey conducted just days earlier (Sept. 10-14; 803 likely voters) found a similar 48-45 percent advantage. Conversely, earlier September data from the Glengariff Group (Aug. 31-Sept. 3; 600 likely voters) placed Rogers in front, 46-44 percent, underscoring how tightly contested the race remains.

Minnesota

Republican Michele Tafoya has steadily closed the gap in this race, gaining enough momentum to force Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) into a virtual tie. The latest co/efficient survey (Sept. 14-15; 833 likely Minnesota voters) shows Flanagan holding a narrow 43-42 percent edge. A SurveyUSA poll conducted just days earlier (Sept. 9-14; 654 likely voters) projects an outright 44-44 percent dead heat.

Nebraska

Wedgewood Polls (Sept. 14-16; 500 likely Nebraska voters) shows Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) holding a four‑point lead, 52-48 percent, with leaners allocated to both candidates. SurveyUSA on the other hand (Sept. 8-13; 503 likely voters), finds Independent Dan Osborn posting a similar four‑point advantage, 46-42 percent.

As in Iowa, neither margin falls within the three‑point toss‑up range. Yet the fact that two pollsters, in consecutive periods, each project four‑point leads for opposite candidates strongly suggests the race is considerably closer than either individual survey indicates.

New Hampshire

This contest has shown steady Republican momentum since the state’s late Sept. 8 primary. co/efficient surveyed New Hampshire immediately after the nomination vote (Sept. 9-11; 958 likely voters) and found Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) and former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) tied at 46 percent. Prior to the primary, two late‑August polls also pointed to a competitive race and showed Sununu clinging to a narrow advantage.

Republican polling firm Fabrizio Lee & Associates (Aug. 27-30; 600 likely voters) posted Sununu to a slight 37-36 percent lead, while the University of New Hampshire (Aug. 20-24; 1,878 likely voters) found a 45-43 percent Sununu edge.

Ohio

Two pollsters, the Trafalgar Group and Bowling Green State University/YouGov, surveyed the Ohio electorate between Sept. 14-16 and Sept.1-10, respectively. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), attempting a comeback after losing his 2024 race, held three‑point leads over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) in both surveys, 45-42 percent and 48-45 percent.

This pattern mirrors what occurred in the 2024 Senate election. Sen. Brown posted similar small leads in September of that year, only to see his advantage fade as the campaign moved closer to Election Day. He ultimately lost in 2024 to Republican Bernie Moreno by 3.5 percentage points.

South Dakota

Public Policy Polling released its latest South Dakota survey (Sept. 8-9; 629 registered voters), suggesting that the Democrats’ strategy of persuading their nominee to withdraw so the party could formally back Independent Brian Bengs is beginning to bear fruit. The PPP ballot test shows Sen. Mike Rounds (R) leading Bengs only 45-42 percent. This marks the second poll within a month indicating that the race could be competitive.

Texas

Five polls have been released in the Texas Senate race just since Sept. 8. While two of the five give state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) more than a three‑point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), three surveys, from Emerson College, Insider Advantage, and Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy, find the contest within the three‑point toss‑up sphere.

Emerson College (Sept. 12-14; 1,000 likely Texas voters) and Insider Advantage (Sept. 8–9; 1,200 likely voters) each recorded the same 47-46 percent Talarico edge. Mason‑Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 8-10; 625 likely voters) measured a 46-43 percent Talarico lead.

The culmination of these 10 toss‑up races will likely determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress, and each will be closely monitored all the way through Election Day.

Weekly Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 3, 2026

Senate

Alaska: After several published polls projected former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) holding a slight lead over Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the latest Siena University survey (June 15-29; 593 likely Alaska general election voters; live interview) flips the ballot test result to a 47-45 percent advantage in the Senator’s favor.

Polling results such as this follows a typical Alaska research and prediction pattern. The leading Democratic and Republican candidates typically poll close, as Sullivan and Peltola are, and then after the August top-four jungle primary, the GOP candidate typically assumes the lead and generally wins the November election by double-digits.

Iowa: Three statewide Iowa polls show conflicting results as Democrats work to score an upset in what has become a strong Republican state. With Sen. Joni Ernst (R) not seeking a third term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) are competing for the seat.

Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online) sees Turek posting a 50-46 percent lead. The other two surveys, from Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text) each sees Rep. Hinson holding a two-point edge, 48-46 percent (Siena) and 46-44 percent (Cygnal). The cumulative numbers find the Iowa race in an early dead heat.

Maine: Fox News, as in Iowa (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Maine voters; live interview & online) simultaneously conducted a survey in Maine with the same sized sampling universe. Countering several weeks of polling finding oyster farmer Graham Platner (D) leading Sen. Susan Collins (R), this result finds the five-term incumbent turning the tables in recapturing her previous advantage. The Fox News ballot test posts Sen. Collins to a still close, 50-47 percent advantage.

It is important to remember that in her most recent campaign (2020), Sen. Collins never led in any poll but won the general election with a margin that nearly reached nine percentage points. If such an under-poll is again present, Sen. Collins is clearly in much stronger shape than she was six years ago.

Michigan: A new Tulchin Research survey (June 24-28; 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters) sees far-left candidate Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Director, taking a definitive lead in the state’s Democratic US Senate primary.

According to the poll results, Dr. El-Sayed leads Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) by a wide 46-27-17 percent margin. Quantus Insights also finds Dr. El-Sayed leading the Democratic primary. The QI poll (June 29-30; 947 likely Michigan voters; 433 likely Democratic primary voters) sees a much smaller El-Sayed lead, however. In this survey, his margin is 41-36-8 percent over Rep. Stevens and state Sen. McMorrow.

Such results continue the pattern of socialist candidates beginning to dominate Democratic primaries. The winner of the August 4th primary will then face consensus Republican candidate Mike Rogers, the former seven-term Congressman who lost the 2024 Senate race by just three-tenths of one percentage point. Incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) is not seeking a third term.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series again examines the Granite State race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online) and continues to project Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) as holding an advantage over both former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) and ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R).

Paired with Sununu, Congressman Pappas holds a slight 47-44 percent edge. Against ex-Sen. Brown, the Pappas lead is a strong 52-38 percent. New Hampshire is hosting a late primary, Sept. 8, for the last time. In 2028 and beyond, the Granite State primary will move to the second week in August.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the New Hampshire electorate and found similar results. In the two general election pairings, Rep. Pappas would lead Sununu, 47-41 percent, and Brown, 48-36 percent.

Ohio: The Siena University/New York Times polling series also surveyed the Ohio electorate. After several recent polls posted former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) to a slight lead over appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R), the Siena data produces the opposite result.

The Siena/NYT poll (June 15-28; 601 likely Ohio general election voters; live interview) now finds Sen. Husted re-taking the lead, 50-47 percent. Ohio is another state that typically features close polling until October when the Republican candidate, at least since 2016, has been pulling away to win a convincing victory.

In the 2024 Senate election, the pattern was clearly present. In that election, then-Sen. Brown had a major campaign resource edge and led in most early polls but fell in the general election to businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by 3.6 percentage points. This, even though Sen. Brown attracted 295,026 more votes in his 2024 losing campaign than he did when last winning the Senate seat in 2018.

South Carolina: New Democratic nominee Annie Andrews’ campaign recently released the results of their recent statewide poll (Impact Research; June 17-22; 700 likely South Carolina general election voters; online & text) and found a potentially close race developing. The ballot test result found Sen. Graham posting only a 48-45 percent advantage. Six years ago, in a similar polling universe and withstanding $130 million spent against him, Sen. Graham still posted a 10-point, 54-44 percent victory.

House

NC-1: The 1st Congressional District was the focal point of the 2026 North Carolina redistricting pan with the goal of converting the seat to the Republicans. A new GQR survey (June 22-28; 500 likely NC-1 general election voters; live interview) suggests that Republican nominee Laurie Buckhout, who held Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) to a tight two-point win in 2024 in a more favorably Democratic district, still has some work to do. According to the GQR poll, Rep. Davis clings to a 45-41 percent edge. NC-1, however, remains a prime national GOP conversion opportunity.

TX-28: A rather surprising new survey finds veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who President Trump pardoned from a federal indictment last year, badly trailing Laredo County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina. In a released survey from the Tijerina campaign (Pulse Decision Science; June 21-23; 400 likely TX-28 general election voters; live interview), the Republican nominee posts a healthy 46-38 percent lead over Rep. Cuellar.

The 28th District is one of the five seats that Republicans are targeting to convert under the state’s new redistricting map. President Trump reportedly pardoned Rep. Cuellar, who is generally considered as the most conservative Democratic US House member, in the hope that the 22-year House incumbent would switch parties. That obviously didn’t happen, so the GOP turned to County Judge Tijerina who represents the largest population entity in the 28th District.

Governor

Iowa: The three polling organizations that tested the Iowa Senate race, Fox News (Beacon Research/Shaw & Co.; June 23-27; 1,003 registered Iowa voters; live interview & online), Siena University for the New York Times (June 15-27; 600 likely Iowa voters; live interview) and the Cygnal research firm (June 16-19; 600 likely Iowa voters; online & text), also tested the open Iowa Governor’s campaign.

In this contest, the three pollsters find State Auditor Rob Sand, Iowa’s only elected statewide Democrat, leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn, but by varying margins. Fox News gives Sand his biggest lead, 53-44 percent. Both Siena University/NYT (48-47 percent) and Cygnal (48-43 percent) detect much smaller Sand advantages.

New Hampshire: The regular University of New Hampshire New England survey series also tested the Granite State Governor’s race (June 18-23; 2,232 likely New Hampshire voters; online).

Here, they find incumbent Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), a former one-term Senator, leading former Executive Councilor and 2024 gubernatorial candidate Cinde Warmington (D) by a 44-39 percent margin. New Hampshire is one of two states, neighboring Vermont being the other, that gives its Governors only two-year terms.

St. Anselm’s College (June 24-25; 1,614 registered New Hampshire voters; online) also tested the race as part of its statewide survey. St. A’s found the Ayotte lead to be a similar 45-37 percent.

Yesterday’s Primary Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Voters in six states, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, cast their nomination ballots yesterday and what follows are the key results and analysis.

The night was particularly bad for two US House members attempting to run statewide. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) fell to investment company executive Zach Lahn in the open Republican gubernatorial primary, and South Dakota at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell), after leading in early polling, failed to even qualify for the gubernatorial runoff election in his state.

California

The Governor and Los Angeles Mayor’s contests dominated the pre-election coverage. With only about half the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the huge 60-person field. Closely behind is former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 22-year congressional veteran Xavier Becerra.

When all the votes are counted, which could be weeks from now, it appears that both men will advance into the general election.

Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is in third place, but it appears his effort to reach the general election will fail. The same for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), who for a time, was in competition for one of the runoff slots. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) will also be eliminated.

In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) will be forced to a runoff election. It appears she will secure less than 40 percent of the vote when all ballots are counted. Advancing to the November runoff appears to be upstart Republican Spencer Pratt. His vote percentage likely places him far enough ahead of LA City Councilwoman Nithya Raman to secure the second slot.

Though Mayor Bass performed poorly for an incumbent and is clearly unpopular since almost 64 percent of the people chose another candidate, Los Angeles’ strong Democratic voting history suggests that Pratt will have a very difficult time unseating her in the general election. Still, a Republican finishing a credible second in a LA Mayor’s race is notable.

There is a new US House member in the California delegation. Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the 1st District special election outright, and he will immediately be sworn into office to finish the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R) term.

Gallagher, though finishing first in the new 1st District regular primary, which is much different than the seat in which he clinched the special election, will be considered at least a slight underdog in the general against state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) even though the latter man fell short of expectations in yesterday’s voting.

Because only half the votes are counted, it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the House races unfolded. It does appear, however, that veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) will advance to the November general election with another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang. This is a race to watch in November.

Other Democratic members falling below the 50 percent mark in the jungle primary will still do well in the general election because they are drawing Republican opponents and not other Democrats.

For the Republicans, in the southern California pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra), both will advance to the general election. Calvert, however, has a large lead heading into the general election campaign.

The other general election contest to watch is in San Diego where County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) clinched the first runoff position and will face San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D), who was a distant second. This open seat race, though designed to elect a Democrat, will be very close in November.

Finally, in the race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco congressional district, as expected, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Franciso) and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) will both advance to the general election.

Iowa

As mentioned above, the Republican gubernatorial winner was technology company executive Zach Lahn. He will face State Auditor Rob Sand (D), who was unopposed in the Democratic primary. This will be a very competitive general election pairing.

As expected, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) will square off in the US Senate general election. Democrats need to make this a competitive race to have a chance at taking the Senate majority. Rep. Hinson begins the general election campaign as the favorite.

Three of the state’s four congressional races will be competitive. The open 2nd District also went as predicted. Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell easily won the Republican primary as did state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) in the Democratic primary.

The 1st District will see the third version of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Cynthia Bohannan (D) opposing each other. The Congresswoman performed much better in yesterday’s Republican primary (over 70 percent of the vote) as compared to her 2024 standing.

Montana

As expected, former US Attorney Scott Alme easily won the Republican US Senate primary. He will be favored to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R).

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is retiring and his chosen replacement, radio talk show host Aaron Flint, won the 1st District Republican primary. It will likely be some time before the Democratic nominee is officially elected. The initial vote totals show a tight finish between smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag and former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse.

New Jersey

The key race on the New Jersey ballot is the 7th Congressional District, and the Democratic primary went as expected. The easy winner against a crowded field is businesswoman and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett. She will now challenge two-term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who has been absent from the House for over two months related to an undisclosed heath situation. This race is a key national Democratic conversion opportunity.

In the open 12th District, where the Democratic primary winner was a lock to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), physician Adam Hamawy claimed the party nomination. He is now the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

New Mexico

Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland is the landslide Democratic gubernatorial primary winner here, defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman to secure the party nomination. She becomes a heavy favorite to win the open November race against new Republican nominee Gregg Hull, the Rio Rancho Mayor.

In the competitive 2nd District, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) will challenge two-term Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces).

South Dakota

The South Dakota Governor’s race was the second to see a businessman defeat established political figures. Businessman Toby Doeden advances to a July 28 Republican runoff likely against Gov. Larry Rhoden, who is on the ballot seeking a full term in his own right after succeeding Kristi Noem when she resigned to accept a position in the Trump Administration. Congressman Dusty Johnson (D-Mitchell) is close behind in third position but will not likely receive enough late votes to overtake the Governor for second position.

In the state’s lone House race, multi-term Attorney General Marty Jackley, as expected, was a landslide Republican primary winner. He will go onto capture the general election in November and enter the new Congress at the beginning of January.

Florida Rep. Wilson to Retire;
Today’s Primary Notes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 2, 2026

FL-24

Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson

Florida political observers had been anticipating a congressional retirement announcement for several weeks, and yesterday the expectation became reality. Veteran Florida Rep. Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens) announced that she will not seek a ninth term in the House. Rep. Wilson, age 83, has been absent from Congress for several weeks while recovering from eye surgery.

During her absence from the House, Rep. Wilson had continued to say she would seek re-election but now replies she was only being “politically strategic,” according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog. Wilson explained that her earlier statements were intended to avoid giving map drawers any incentive to dismantle her district during the redistricting process.

Rep. Wilson was first elected to Congress in 2010 after serving 12 years in the state legislature. Since winning her initial federal race, she has averaged 81 percent of the vote in her seven South Florida re-election campaigns, including two cycles in which she ran unopposed.

Even under the new Florida Republican redistricting map, the open 24th District will remain safely Democratic. According to Dave’s Redistricting App, FL‑24 has a partisan lean of 73.0D–26.2R.

There are now 67 open US House seats – 38 from the Republican column and 23 from the Democratic side. An additional six seats were created through various new redistricting maps. Of the 67 openings, however, only 29 members are voluntarily retiring from elective politics (16 Republicans and 13 Democrats).

Today’s Primary Notes

Several late‑breaking stories are emerging just ahead of today’s major primary election day.

First, in Iowa, a surprising poll is charting new data waters. In the open Republican gubernatorial primary, JMC Analytics released their latest Iowa survey (May 27-28; 550 likely Iowa Republican primary voters; live interview), which posts investment executive Zach Lahn to a small 27-24 percent lead over Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City); Lahn may be in position to score an upset tonight.

The only other published poll of the GOP primary came in April from Victory Enterprises (April 14–15; 500 likely Iowa Republican primary voters). That survey showed Rep. Feenstra holding a commanding 41-8 percent lead over Lahn.

The Republican primary winner will then face State Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The general election promises to be highly competitive. Incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third full term.

In California, several survey research firms have recently tested the gubernatorial jungle primary. Earlier in the cycle, most polling suggested that two Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could advance to the general election. Now, however, there is growing uncertainty about whether Hilton might be edged out, potentially allowing two Democrats to qualify instead.

To recap, California places all candidates on a single primary ballot. The top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation or vote percentage, advance to the general election.

Four polls were conducted between May 26 and 28 by four different research firms. While all show the top three candidates – Hilton, former Health and Human Services Secretary and former California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra, and billionaire Tom Steyer – tightly clustered, there is no clear consensus on which two will advance to the general election. All three consistently fall within each survey’s margin of error.

It is clear the result will be extremely close, and it is possible that weeks could pass before we know definitively which two candidates advance to the general election. California is notoriously slow in counting votes, largely because election officials allow ballots to be received and counted well after Election Day. In fact, the Secretary of State has 36 days to tally and certify all ballots.

Therefore, late‑breaking developments in both Iowa and California suggest that the Governors’ races in these states could produce unpredictable outcomes. The Iowa results will likely be known tonight, but the California counting process is expected to be lengthy.

Iowa and Montana Primary Previews

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 29, 20206

Today, we continue our series of June 2nd primary previews. We begin with a look at the very busy Iowa primary followed with Montana developments. On Monday, we wrap up with the New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary previews.

Iowa

The Iowa primary features several tightly contested races. The Hawkeye State is poised to be one of the most influential battlegrounds in shaping the national landscape of the 2026 midterm cycle. Iowa will see several major offices open in 2026: US Senate, Governor, and two US House seats. All are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Governor

Democrats are enthusiastic about their gubernatorial nominee. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently holding statewide office, is expected to be well funded as the party attempts to reclaim the governorship; a post Republicans have held since 2011.

As Lieutenant Governor, Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to the state’s top office in 2017 following Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) resignation to become US Ambassador to China in the first Trump Administration. She was then elected Governor in her own right in 2018 and 2022. Earlier this year, she announced that she would not seek a third full term.

Democratic leaders and strategists believe not only can Sand win the general election, but they feel he can also drive turnout to help sweep other Democrats into office.

Sand’s likely general‑election opponent is 4th District Rep. Randy Feenstra (R–Hull/Sioux City). First elected in 2020 after defeating then‑Rep. Steve King in the Republican primary, Rep. Feenstra has since faced minimal opposition in his re‑election campaigns and has consistently performed well as a candidate. The general election is expected to be highly competitive.

Senate

When Sen. Joni Ernst (R) announced she would not seek a third Senate term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) immediately entered the race. President Trump, Gov. Reynolds, and the broader Republican establishment quickly rallied behind her, making her the prohibitive favorite for the party’s nomination.

Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Iowa City) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Sen. Wahls opened with an early lead, but with Democratic leaders now lining up almost uniformly behind Turek, the party electorate – and recent polling – has clearly shifted in his direction. This sets the stage for what is expected to be a strongly contested Hinson-Turek general election.

House

All four of Iowa’s US House seats feature notable activity this cycle. In the 1st District, a second rematch between Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) appears likely. Both face only minor opposition in Tuesday’s primary and are expected to advance to the general election.

The Republican primary will be worth watching, however. In 2024, Rep. Miller‑Meeks recorded only 56 percent of the GOP primary vote against advertising executive David Pautsch, who ran a no‑spending campaign. Pautsch is back for another attempt, and this time he is making a slightly more concerted effort to compete.

Rep. Miller‑Meeks’ vote share will be an important number to watch. A result below 65 percent would likely signal further general‑election vulnerability for the incumbent. In 2024, she defeated Bohannan by just 799 votes – the third‑closest US House race in the country.

Rep. Hinson’s open 2nd District features primaries in both parties, though each has a clear favorite heading into Tuesday. For Republicans, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell is the strong frontrunner over state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Linn County). On the Democratic side, state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) is expected to win her party’s nomination.

The general election is expected to be competitive, but with a partisan lean favoring Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App: 51.4R – 45.3D), Mitchell would enter November with a measurable advantage.

The Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the most competitive congressional seat in the state (DRA partisan lean: 49.8R–47.0D). Both nominations are already set, as each party’s primary is uncontested. Rep. Zach Nunn (R–Bondurant) will be defending the seat for the second time after unseating an incumbent in 2022.

Democrats will field state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) as their nominee. The general election is expected to be highly competitive, and the race effectively becomes a national contest beginning Wednesday.

The western 4th District is open because Rep. Feenstra is running for Governor. The Republican nominee will be Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan who is surprisingly unopposed for the GOP nomination in this strongly Republican congressional district.

Democrats have three candidates vying for the IA-4 party nomination. The frontrunner is former state Rep. Dave Dawson, but he will be a decided general election underdog against McGowan.

Montana

The Treasure State was expected to have a quiet general election with all federal incumbents seeking re‑election. Just before the candidate filing period closed, however, the landscape changed dramatically.

Senate

Just minutes before the March 4 candidate filing deadline expired, Sen. Steve Daines (R) – who had filed for re‑election earlier in the month – abruptly withdrew from the race. Accompanying him to the Secretary of State’s office was former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R), who then filed to run for the Senate.

The Daines hand‑off appears to have worked, as only minor candidates will appear on the ballot against Alme in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Five Democrats filed for the seat, with former state Rep. Reilly Neill emerging as the strongest contender from that field.

The most competitive Senate opponent for Alme, however, isn’t a Democrat. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent, is likely the strongest non‑Republican contender. The presence of a Democratic nominee, though, creates a more favorable landscape for Alme. If the race becomes highly competitive, he could prevail with a simple plurality by consolidating Republican support while the anti‑GOP vote split between two candidates.

House

Before Sen. Daines withdrew and effectively selected his preferred successor, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) had already announced that he would not seek re‑election, doing so just days before the filing deadline. He simultaneously endorsed his chosen successor, radio talk‑show host Aaron Flint (R).

In this case, enough time remained for additional candidates to file. Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Senator and past congressional candidate Al Olszewski both quickly filed to compete in the Republican primary.

The Democrats have assembled a notably credible field, featuring 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, Montana Firefighters Union chief of staff Matt Rains, well‑known Smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag, and education consultant Russell Cleveland as contenders for the party’s nomination.

With a credible Democratic nominee and a narrowly divided district (DRA partisan lean: 50.7R–46.9D), western Montana is poised for a hard‑fought general election contest.

In the eastern 2nd District, freshman Rep. Troy Downing (R-Helena) is unopposed for re-election. The Congressman will also be a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a district that President Trump carried with a commanding 63.2 – 33.6 percent margin in 2024.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.