Tag Archives: Colorado

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. Passes Away;
GOP Candidate Up in Colorado;
Ex-Rep. Santos Drops New Bid;
Trump Draws Into National Tie

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 25, 2024

House

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. / Fox News Photo

NJ-10: Rep. Donald Payne Jr. Passes Away — New Jersey US Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark), who suffered a heart attack on April 9 and unfortunately did not recover, passed away yesterday. His death means there are now six vacant congressional seats, thus reducing the total membership number to 429.

Since candidate filing is closed for the regular cycle and Rep. Payne is the only candidate on the ballot for the 10th District Democratic primary, he will posthumously win the nomination contest. According to a story in the New Jersey Globe newspaper, once all candidates are certified for the general election by the June 17 deadline after the June 4 primary election, the New Jersey secretary of state will declare the seat vacant. The various Democratic county party committee members would then meet in convention to choose a replacement nominee.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has leeway regarding calling a special election for purposes of filling the remainder of the current term. He can schedule a special primary and general within the time limits proscribed by New Jersey election law, or he can make the special general concurrent with the regular election. The 10th District is heavily Democratic, so the party’s new nomination process will decide who succeeds the late Congressman Payne.

CO-8: Rep. Caraveo (D) Drops Behind in New GE Poll — Despite trailing in fundraising by a better than 5:1 margin, an early April OnMessage survey in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District (April 1-4; 400 likely CO-8 voters; live interview) projects state Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Westminster) to have secured a 43-38 percent ballot test advantage over freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). This, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+3. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, however, calculate a different 48.3D – 47.0R partisan lean. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the district 50.8 – 46.3 percent.

The 8th CD was created through 2020 national reapportionment since Colorado gained a seat and was drawn as a suburban/outer-suburban district to the north and northeast of Denver. This race will be rated as a toss-up campaign all the way through the November election.

NY-1: Ex-Rep. Santos Drops New Bid — Earlier this week, expelled US Rep. George Santos (R) announced that he is dropping his Independent bid in the state’s 1st District, attempting to deny Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) re-election. In his statement, Santos said, “I don’t want to split the ticket and be responsible for handing the House to the Dems. Staying in this race all but guarantees a victory for the Dems.” Santos may be overestimating his ability to draw votes as an Independent or minor party candidate.

Rep. LaLota, in a post on X, said he believes Santos ending his candidacy means he is negotiating a plea bargain to the 23 federal charges he soon faces in trial. In closing, Santos indicated that, “it’s only goodbye for now, I’ll be back.” Rep. LaLota, in a district that the new redistricting plan made slightly more Republican, is favored for re-election.

President

Quinnipiac Poll: Trump Draws Into a National Tie — Quinnipiac University conducts monthly national political polls, and their April survey reports a much different conclusion than the four previous studies had produced. The most recent poll (April 18-22; 1,429 US registered voters; live interview) finds President Biden and former President Donald Trump tied at 46 percent in the head-to-head delineation, and 37-37 percent when Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (16 percent) is added along with Green Party nominee Jill Stein (three percent), and Independent Cornel West (three percent).

This poll reveals a significant movement in Trump’s favor when compared with the four previous polls beginning in December that yielded President Biden leads of one, six, four, and three percentage points.

Boebert Tops GOP Assembly Vote;
Two Qualify for CO-3 Primary;
Three-Way Outcome in CA-16; Morrisey Stretches Lead in WVA.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 9, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Boebert Tops GOP Assembly Vote — Colorado Republicans met in a pair of local assemblies to potentially send candidates to the June 25 primary election. The big story surrounding the party assemblies comes from former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) open 4th District where 3rd District Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is attempting to win re-election in a new CD. Many believed she would not fare particularly well at the assembly, but a plurality of the 527 attending delegates proved them wrong.

Boebert finished first in the voting with 41 percent support, thus awarding her the first ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary. Former state Sen. Ted Harvey, who many believed to be the favorite, finished with 26 percent of the delegate vote. Therefore, he did not qualify for the ballot. Since he did not circulate petitions, Harvey is eliminated. Several others will qualify through petition, meaning we will see a contested primary election in this district.

CO-3: Two Qualify for Primary — Under Colorado election procedure, a candidate can qualify for the ballot either by receiving at least 30 percent of the delegate vote at district assembly or petitioning onto the ballot with 1,500 signatures for a congressional race. A candidate can both participate in the assembly and obtain signatures.

If a contender draws less than 10 percent of the assembly vote, he or she is disqualified from the primary.

In Rep. Boebert’s now open 3rd District, two individuals exceeded the 30 percent threshold, therefore securing primary ballot positions. Colorado Board of Education Member Stephen Varela and former state representative Ron Hanks have earned the first and second ballot positions.

Businessman Curtis McCrackin, who did not participate in the assembly, has qualified through petition signatures. Three more have submitted petitions and are awaiting certification from the secretary of state. An additional three candidates failed to reach the 10 percent threshold at the district assembly and are disqualified. Democrat Adam Frisch, the 2022 candidate, who lost to Boebert by only 546 votes, is a virtual lock to again be his party’s nominee.

CA-16: The Three-Way Outcome — Though official certification of the March 5th California primary will not occur until April 12, it appears that the second general election position in the state’s 16th Congressional District will end in a tie. With no votes remaining to be counted, San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) both have garnered 30,249 votes. In first position is former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) with 38,489 tallies.

Under the top-two California jungle primary law, in the case of a tie the deadlocked participants both advance to the general election. The state has no automatic recount law, but a candidate can request, and pay for, a recount of the ballots. It is highly unlikely that either Simitian or Low will call for a recount, however. At this point, both are in the general election and a recount would very likely change the outcome by a small number of votes. This means each would be rolling the dice that a new tally would favor them.

The interesting part of this scenario, however, is whether Liccardo, the first-place finisher, will call for a recount. He is determining if a three-way race is to his benefit or squaring off with one of the others. Since he already placed first in the crowded field of 11 candidates, he will probably conclude that his chances are best in the three-way field. Therefore, this is a rare situation when the top-two system actually produced three qualifiers. And, to make the outcome even rarer, all three are Democrats.

Governor

West Virginia: Morrisey Stretches Lead in New Poll — WPA Intelligence released a survey for the Black Bear Super PAC, which supports Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) bid for governor. The poll, (March 12-13; 501 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters) sees the AG posting a 37-20-19-14 percent GOP primary advantage over former Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively.

The numbers and candidate order has remained consistent through three WPAi polls beginning with their first study in November. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14. Gov. Jim Justice (R), ineligible to seek a third term, is running for US Senate. The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track toward winning the general election.

GOP VP Polling Results; CO-8 GOP Nomination; Bowman Trails Badly in NY-16; Washington Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 8, 2024

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) leading the VP pack in polling.

YouGov Poll: Tests Enthusiasm & Trump VP Choices — International online pollster YouGov, again polling for the Economist publication as they do on a regular basis, included questions about enthusiasm for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as well as favorability rating for eleven potential Republican vice presidential choices.

On the enthusiasm questions, as we have seen from primary turnout numbers across the country, President Biden has a major problem. Among self-identified Democrats in the latest YouGov national survey (March 30-April 2; 1,813 US adults; online) only 38 percent responded affirmatively that they are enthusiastic about Biden’s candidacy. Another 21 percent said they are dissatisfied with the president’s candidacy, with an additional six percent of Democrats confirming they are “upset” with the status of his campaign. A final 37 percent said they are satisfied with Biden, but not enthusiastic.

Compared with former President Trump, 57 percent of Republicans said they are enthusiastic about his candidacy, six percent dissatisfied but not upset, eight percent upset, while 26 percent say they are satisfied but not enthusiastic.

On the vice presidential front, 11 prospects were tested. They are (alphabetically):

  1. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott
  2. former HUD Secretary Ben Carson
  3. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
  4. ex-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard
  5. former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley
  6. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem
  7. former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy
  8. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders
  9. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)
  10. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
  11. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH)

Rating the candidates equally on their favorability indexes and awarding individual points for standing in the high favorable, low unfavorable, and best ratio between the two scores, the top finishers were Sen. Scott and Dr. Carson. Finishing dead last among the group, and the only candidate viewed with an upside-down favorability index, is Haley. Though Gov. DeSantis is ineligible to serve as vice president because both he and Trump reside in the same state, he was still included in the poll and fared well, placing just behind Scott and Carson.

CO-8: GOP Nomination Virtually Secured — Colorado Republicans from the Denver suburban 8th Congressional District met in caucus and advanced state Rep. Gave Evans (R-Westminster) into the general election with 62 percent delegate support.

The other qualifier is state Rep. Janak Joshi, but he resides all the way south in Colorado Springs, far from the 8th District. Health insurance consultant Joe Andujo is now disqualified since he failed to reach the 10 percent threshold at the party convention. He was also circulating petitions to qualify, but those efforts are now discarded because he failed to reach the minimum delegate support threshold. Andujo then endorsed Rep. Evans at the convention.

Very likely, we will now see Evans advancing from Colorado’s June 25 primary election, where he will become the general election candidate to oppose freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton). The congresswoman, first elected in 2022 in what is Colorado’s newest congressional seat, scored only 48.4 percent of the vote, defeating her Republican opponent by less than a full percentage point. Count on this race becoming a major national GOP offensive target.

NY-16: Rep. Bowman Trails Badly in New Dem Primary Poll — Justice Democratic Congressman Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers), who unseated veteran Rep. Eliot Engel in the 2020 Democratic primary, appears to be in trouble as he seeks renomination for a third term. A new Mellman Group survey (March 26-30; 400 likely NY-16 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) conducted for the George Latimer campaign finds the challenging Westchester County Executive leading Rep. Bowman by a whopping 52-35 percent margin as the June 25 primary comes into view.

Rep. Bowman aligns himself with the group that calls themselves “the Squad” that comprises the far left of the Democratic Conference. Latimer, prior to his election as county executive, served in both the New York Senate and Assembly. This race is now becoming another key primary campaign as several incumbents from around the country face stiff competition in their quest for renomination.

Governor

Washington: Ex-Rep. Reichert (R) Takes Lead in New Gov Poll — An Echelon Insights survey finds Republican former US Rep. Dave Reichert leading Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson in the open race for governor, thus providing more evidence that the Washington race is becoming much more competitive than originally projected.

Echelon Insights tested the Evergreen State electorate (March 18-21; 600 registered Washington voters; online, text & live interview) and sees Reichert grasping a 39-30 percent advantage over AG Ferguson in what is one of the most Democratic states in the country. Some suggest that the poll skews more Republican since Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) claims an underperforming 44-36 percent margin over physician and 2020 gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia (R), and President Biden posts only a plurality number over Donald Trump, 48-37 percent.

While a skew may well exist, the poll is in the realm of other research findings and confirms that Reichert is a Republican candidate with staying power and capable of becoming a viable challenger.

Trump Stirs Controversy in Florida; Fong Saga Continues in California; Republicans Choose CO-4 Candidate; New Jersey Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 1, 2024

House

Florida Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa)

FL-15: Rep. Lee’s New Opponent — Former President Trump may have ignited a hornets’ nest when he called for a MAGA candidate to come forward to oppose GOP freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa). While that has yet to happen, the controversy within the Republican base may have encouraged a new Democrat to come forward in what is a competitive district. Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp (D) announced on Friday that he will enter the Democratic primary and immediately becomes the favorite for the party nomination.

Trump targeted Rep. Lee because she was the only member of the Florida Republican delegation to endorse Gov. Ron DeSantis against the former president in this year’s national campaign. Florida’s 15th District carries an R+7 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. However, Trump won the district by only a 51-48 percent margin in the 2020 presidential election.

CA-20: Appellate Court to Hear Fong Ballot Status — The Vince Fong ballot saga is not yet over. You may remember because former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned from the House at the California candidate filing deadline, the Secretary of State disqualified Fong from running for Congress because he was already certified as a candidate for state Assembly to remain in his seat there. California election law prohibits candidates from running for more than one office simultaneously and the withdrawal deadline had already expired.

Fong sued over the decision and the court awarded him the congressional ballot line. Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) appealed the ruling, however, and arguments will be heard this week. Therefore, though Assemblyman Fong has qualified for both the special and regular general elections for the congressional seat, an adverse appellate court ruling could send this succession election into political chaos.

CO-4: Republicans Choose Caretaker Candidate — Late last week, the local Republican committee formed to choose a special election nominee for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District special election to replace resigned Rep. Ken Buck (R) chose a candidate who agreed not to run for the regular term. The move is a break for US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), switching over from District 3, and the 10 other candidates in the regular Republican primary.

The committee chose former Parker Mayor Greg Lopez as their special election candidate. He will be favored to win the upcoming special election which is held concurrently with the regular primary on June 25.

Lopez, a former state director for the Small Business Administration, will be favored against the Democratic nominee who will be chosen later today. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-4 as R+26. Former President Donald Trump won the seat 58-39 percent in the 2020 presidential election.

States

New Jersey: Court Rejects Party County Line Balloting — New Jersey is one of the few remaining states where the county political parties have substantial power. What makes them strong is endorsing candidates in the primary and providing them extremely favorable ballot placements to the point where opponents are listed on separate ballot pages.

Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), running for the Senate, filed suit against the practice and the federal judge granted a preliminary injunction to halt the practice. While Kim is now becoming the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic Senate nomination since First Lady Tammy Murphy exited the race and Sen. Bob Menendez announced that he is not seeking the party nomination, his legal move will likely create a more even playing field for down-ballot races. This will probably become a major factor in changing how New Jersey primaries are run.

Rep. Gallagher to Leave in April;
A Squeaker in CA-16; Party Chair Advances in Colorado;
Santos Leaves GOP

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 25, 2024

House

Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay)

WI-8: Rep. Gallagher to Resign in April — In February, four-term US Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) announced that he would not seek a fifth term this year. On Friday, Gallagher reiterated his plan to leave Congress, and will do so earlier than expected. The congressman indicated he will resign from the House on April 19.

Leaving at that point in April does not allow the state to replace him with an early special election to fill the balance of the term instead of waiting until the November election. Therefore, Republicans will be another seat down until the regular general. Gallagher becomes the sixth House member to resign during this session of Congress in addition to Rep. George Santos (R-NY), who was expelled from the body.

CA-16: 1, 2, 3, & 4 — The battle to claim the second general election position in California’s open 16th Congressional District continues to drag on, and now the election officials are determining if provisional and late arriving ballots should be added to the aggregate count. An estimated 400-plus ballots are in this category.

The current standing finds San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) now leading Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) by a mere four votes — 30,222 to 30,218. This small number is an increase for Simitian from his previous one-vote edge. Previously, Low held two and three vote leads from a pair of released counts.

Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) has already clinched the first general election finalist position. The Secretary of State has until April 12 to certify all March 5 primary elections and it is likely determining the second place finisher here will consume the entire time allotment. Whoever is declared the loser once all ballots are tabulated will obviously call for a recount. Should the race for second place end in a tie, both contenders would advance into the general election against Liccardo. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring.

CO-5: State Chairman Advances to GOP Primary — Local Republican delegates in Colorado’s open 5th District met over the weekend in their nominating convention. With Rep. Douglas Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) retiring, the seat becomes open for the first time in 18 years. Counting his time in the state legislature, Lamborn will leave elective office at the beginning of next year after serving 30 consecutive years.

The delegates, with a 70.4 percent vote, propelled Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams into the general election. A candidate must receive at least 30 percent of the vote to automatically advance. Falling below the lower threshold requires a candidate to access the ballot by submitting 1,500 valid petition signatures. Therefore, the only other announced GOP candidate for the seat, radio talk show host and former two time congressional candidate Jeff Crank, must circulate petitions in order to compete in the June 25 Republican primary.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CO-5 as R+18. Then-President Donald Trump carried the seat in 2020 with a 53.2 – 43.1 percent majority vote. Therefore, the eventual Republican nominee will become a definitive favorite for the general election. With the candidate filing deadline fast approaching on April 1, seven Democrats are announced contenders.

NY-1: Santos Leaves GOP — After declaring earlier this month that he would challenge freshman Republican Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) in the GOP primary, on Friday the expelled Congressman George Santos announced he would leave the Republican Party and campaign for the 1st District congressional seat as an Independent.

In a written statement, Santos said, “The Republican Party continues to lie and swindle its voter base. I, in good conscience, cannot affiliate myself with a party that stands for nothing and falls for everything.” It is unlikely that Santos will be a factor in the general election for the Independence Party, or any other ballot line. Any votes he does attract, however, would likely come from LaLolta’s base, thus allowing the eventual Democratic nominee, either 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff or former CNN news anchor John Avlon, to potentially gain support from these disaffected Republicans.

Conflicting Polls in Ohio; Boebert Won’t Run in Special; Ranked Choice Toss-up Result in Alaska; California General Election Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 18, 2024

Senate

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

Ohio: Conflicting Polls — Late last week, we reported on an Emerson College poll of the Ohio Senate Republican primary that posted state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) to a 26-23-16 percent edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively. Now we see a Survey USA study (March 6-11; 1,241 registered Ohio voters; 533 likely Republican primary voters; online) that projects Moreno holding a 22-18-16 percent lead over Sen. Dolan and Secretary LaRose. The closeness of both polls suggests any of the three still has a chance to win this coming Tuesday.

House

CO-4: Boebert Won’t Run in Special — Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) announced late last week that she will not compete in the special election to replace resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) but will remain in the race for the full term. Colorado Republican Party chairman Dave Williams, who is himself a congressional candidate in open District 5, announced that he will be assembling a committee of party leaders and elected officials to choose a 4th District special election nominee within “the next several weeks.” Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election. The Democrats have a selection committee of more than 200 members, and the party leadership says a special vote to choose their nominee will occur on April 1.

The move not to enter the special makes sense for Boebert. It is highly unlikely that she would be chosen as the committee’s nominee, since she currently represents another district. Therefore, if the congresswoman wins the regular primary election it is irrelevant as to who would hold the seat for the remainder of this term. Unless the special election winner also wins the regular primary on the same day, then said person will not compete in the general election.

AK-AL: New Poll Shows Ranked Choice Toss-up Result — A new Data for Progress survey (Feb. 23-March 2; 1,120 likely Alaska general election voters; web to text) finds a very tight impending at-large congressional race with no clear leader after several hypothetical rounds of Ranked Choice Voting. Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) leads the original field of businessman and former congressional candidate Nick Begich III (R), Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), and Libertarian Chris Bye by a 44-35-10-2 percent break. In Ranked Choice Voting, the primary sends four candidates to the general election and the pollsters project these individuals would be the eventual finalists.

Since no one receives majority support in the initial round, RCV begins, and Bye is eliminated. In the second round, Rep. Peltola would lead 48-41-12 percent over Begich and Dahlstrom. This result would lead to Dahlstrom’s elimination. The third round finds Peltola and Begich in a dead heat at 50-50 percent. Though Rep. Peltola has a 10-point personal favorability spread, the best of all the tested politicians, it appears the electoral system makes this race a toss-up.

California: General Election Becoming Clearer — More vote totals are being released from the long California ballot counting process, and congressional general election matchups are now becoming cemented. In preparation for Tuesday’s special election to replace resigned House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, it is now likely that we will see a double-Republican regular general election between Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) and Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux.

To the Democrats’ benefit in open Districts 30 and 31, Democratic-Republican general elections appear to be the final result. Such pairings would almost assuredly elect state Assemblywoman Laura Friedman (D-Burbank) to replace Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), and former Congressman Gil Cisneros (D) returning to the House to succeed retiring Rep. Grace Napolitano (D-Norwalk) also appears to be a certainty.

The closest race is occurring in open District 16 where Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring. Former San Jose Mayor Sam Riccardo (D) has secured the first general election position, but the battle for second place is still undecided. San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) has yielded second place to Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell). The razor-thin margin is only 59 votes between the two according to the secretary of state’s official count. An unspecified number of ballots remain uncounted. District 16 will definitely send two Democrats to the general election, but the second finalist position is still undecided.

Last Night’s Primary Results; Rep. Buck to Resign; California Projections; Close Polls in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 13, 2024

President

Primary/Caucus Results — Primaries were held in three states last night, and even without results from the Hawaii caucuses, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump exceeded the bound delegate vote requirement to score first ballot nominations. Therefore, both men become their party’s “presumptive nominee,” meaning they will become the official standard bearer at the respective party conventions in July (Republicans) and August (Democrats).

The Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries went as expected with both Biden and Trump winning with landslide totals against opponents who appear on the ballot but who have withdrawn from the race.

Mississippi was the state that held its full ballot primary last night. Sen. Roger Wicker (R) won renomination against two opponents with just over 60 percent of the vote. Wicker won all but 10 counties in the state from a total universe of 82. All four Magnolia State US House incumbents were either unopposed for renomination or easily won. Freshman Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) had two GOP opponents, and still surpassed 73 percent of the vote. All four: Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo), Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton), Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), and Mr. Ezell, now become prohibitive favorites to win again in November.

House

Rep. Ken Buck / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Rep. Buck to Resign — Colorado US Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor), who had previously made public his intentions not to seek a sixth term later this year, announced yesterday that he will resign much sooner — on March 22. The move initiates the calling of a special congressional election — the fourth in the country prior to the regular general election. Gov. Jared Polis (D) responded that he will schedule the special vote concurrently with the state’s June 25 primary election.

In Colorado, special election nominations are handled through vacancy committees that the local political parties construct. This means the voters will go to the polls only once to fill the balance of the current term.

This system likely plays to Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) detriment. It is highly unlikely that the District 4 vacancy committee members will choose her as the party nominee considering she is still the District 3 incumbent. This also means the dozen announced candidates already vying to replace Rep. Buck will see one of their colleagues likely chosen for the special.

California: More Finalists Projected — As the California ballot counting process moves laboriously along, the Associated Press is projecting that three more candidates will qualify for the general election from the top-two jungle primary. In the Los Angeles-anchored 34th District, both incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D) and movie executive David Kim (D) will again advance into the general election. This will be the third consecutive election in which the two have faced each other in a double-Democratic contest. In 2022, Rep. Gomez registered only a 51-49 percent general election win over Kim, so another close race is expected later this year.

In the open South San Francisco Bay seat from which veteran Rep. Anna Eshoo (D- Atherton) is retiring, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) is assured of advancing to the November election, but his eventual opponent has still not been decided. In second place is San Mateo Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D), who is only 749 votes ahead of Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) with approximately 26,000 ballots remaining to be counted.

Whoever wins the special will have a major advantage in the subsequent November regular election if the primary electorate chooses someone in the regular primary other than whom the vacancy committee decided upon. Another option the committee may have is to select someone who agrees not to seek a full term. Therefore, we will see more political drama occurring in Colorado as the campaign to replace Rep. Buck continues to unfold.

Governor

North Carolina: Two More Close Polls — Now that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are the official gubernatorial nominees of their respective political parties after last Tuesday’s primary vote, Survey USA and the Cygnal firm went into the field to test the general election between the two new official nominees.

The S-USA poll, conducted for WRAL-TV in Raleigh (March 6-9; 850 NC adults; 736 registered North Carolina voters; 598 likely North Carolina general election voters; online), sees AG Stein leading Lt. Gov. Robinson by a tight 44-42 percent margin, which is in the consistent realm of previously released surveys. When asked about presidential preference, the sampling universe would favor former President Trump over President Biden by a 50-45 percent margin in this most critical of swing states.

The Cygnal survey was conducted during the March 6-7 period (600 likely North Carolina voters; live interview & text) and produced a slightly different outcome. While projecting a similarly close result as Survey USA, Cygnal sees Lt. Gov. Robinson leading the gubernatorial race with a 44-39 percent spread. The latter firm also finds former President Trump holding a five point lead over President Biden but with a slightly different 45-40 percent count.