Tag Archives: Georgia

The Switch States

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, October 20, 2026

As we move closer to Election Day, and with early voting now underway in 27 states, several statewide contests are beginning to gel. Notably, polling in four states suggests voters may be poised to split their tickets between Governor and US Senator, a pattern that has been rare in recent cycles.

In Iowa, the latest individual poll finds respondents leaning toward Republican Ashley Hinson for the Senate and Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand for Governor. In three other states, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Texas, the Republican candidates lead the Governor’s race, while Democrats have the edge in the respective Senate campaigns.

The co/efficient polling firm conducted the Iowa poll (Oct. 15-19; 863 likely Iowa general election voters; live interview) and found GOP Rep. Hinson trending ahead of state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) by a 48-45 percent count. In the Governor’s race, the same polling sample respondents favor Democrat Sand over Republican businessman Zach Lahn by a reversed 49-45 percent split.

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Governors’ Races: 2027 Redistricting

Click on map to go to Dave’sRedistrictingApp. Use the dropdown on the left labeled US Map View to navigate to the Redistricting Control Map.


By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

The Governors’ races are plentiful in 2026, with 36 statewide chief executive contests heading toward conclusion. How the most competitive races will shape the post‑Callais v. Louisiana redistricting cycle next year is a key question the new Governors will partially answer. The 2026 map is unusually symmetrical: of the 36 races, 18 are in Democratic‑held states, 18 in Republican states, and exactly half are open‑seat contests.

With Democrats primed to take the House majority in the new Congress, redistricting will again be a major factor in the 2028 election cycle. The landmark Supreme Court decision last April on the Callais case effectively eliminates the need to create protected majority minority districts, giving states the opportunity to bring their congressional and state legislative maps into compliance with the new redistricting criteria.

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Senate Race Clues

By Jim Ellis — Monday, September 28, 2026

There are 14 competitive US Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in the next Congress, but factors beyond polling provide additional insight into how these campaigns may ultimately conclude. Today, we examine the first seven of these 14 contests in alphabetical order. Tomorrow, we will review the remaining seven.

Alaska

Alaska races typically follow a familiar pattern: major‑party candidates poll closely through early October, only for the Republican to pull ahead once voting begins. In the end, the GOP nominee usually wins comfortably. Recent polling again shows a tight contest, with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) gaining ground on former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). The latest Trafalgar Group survey (Sept. 22-24; 1,079 likely voters; mixed sampling) shows Sullivan edging back into a narrow 47-46 percent lead.

The jungle primary results, however, told a different story. Alaska reports votes by its 40 state House districts rather than counties. On Aug. 18, Sen. Sullivan carried only 13 of the 25 districts that typically vote Republican; but turnout was just 22 percent. This race carries genuine upset potential.

Georgia

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), seeking a second term that could serve as a springboard for a 2028 presidential bid, has led all candidates nationwide in fundraising throughout the cycle. His opponent, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson), remains significantly under-funded. The latest Insider Advantage poll (Sept. 22-23; 1,200 likely voters; online & text) again shows Ossoff ahead, this time beyond the margin of error, 50-42 percent. Sen. Ossoff enters the final stretch as a clear favorite.

Iowa

The Hawkeye State also exhibits a familiar polling pattern, particularly since the 2016 election: the two major‑party candidates run close through September, only for the Republican to pull away in the final weeks of October. The historical record suggests we may see the same dynamic again this November. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R‑ Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D‑Council Bluffs) remain locked in a tight contest, with polling leads seesawing between them.

Historically, Rep. Hinson is in a stronger position at this stage than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was during either of her successful campaigns. In her 2020 re‑election bid, Ernst trailed in multiple late‑September polls by margins ranging from one to 12 points, yet ultimately won by seven. In 2014, across 14 cumulative surveys, Ernst led in six, Democrat Bruce Braley led in six, and two were tied — before she went on to record a 52-44 percent victory.

Though the 2026 campaign remains competitive, the historical pattern and comparative positioning suggest that Rep. Hinson is well‑placed as the race enters its decisive phase.

Kansas

Once again, we are seeing close polling in a Kansas Senate race, but the likely outcome mirrors every Senate contest since 1932: a Republican victory. This marks the third Senate election since 2014 in which September polling has shown a tight race. The numbers in the 2026 contest between Sen. Roger Marshall (R) and pastor Allen Hamilton (D) project a virtual toss‑up, just as the polls did for Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in 2014 and then‑Congressman Marshall in 2020.

The 2026 race certainly merits watching, but history suggests a familiar pattern. In both 2014 and 2020, the Republican nominee pulled away in October to win a comfortable victory after a competitive September. It is likely that Sen. Marshall will again follow the same trajectory in the closing weeks of this campaign and score a convincing victory.

Maine

Being in a tough race is nothing new for Sen. Susan Collins (R); she has won five times in a state that is consistently difficult terrain for Republicans. In 2020, Sen. Collins never led a single general‑election poll, yet ultimately won by 8.5 points despite massive spending against her. This year, her opponent is former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D), who entered the race after Democratic leaders forced their primary winner, oysterman Graham Platner (D), out of the race.

Polling has bounced back and forth between the two candidates, and Republicans have identified vulnerabilities in Jackson’s record that they are working to exploit. The race is unquestionably competitive, but far less intense than the 2020 contest. As a result, Sen. Collins again has a strong chance to defy the Pine Tree State’s political odds.

Michigan

In many ways, the Michigan Senate race is the most important campaign on the political board. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins and flips the state into the Republican column, the Democratic path to a Senate majority becomes immensely more difficult.

Polling has been abundant, and most surveys show Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed — the former director of the Wayne County Health, Human and Veterans Services Department — holding a small lead.

While El‑Sayed generally posts narrow advantages on the ballot test, he has reached 50 percent only twice in 19 post‑primary polls, suggesting his political support ceiling may be in the 48 percent range. In the primary, nine pollsters projected him ahead by an average of 16 points heading into the Aug. 4 election, yet he won by just one percentage point.

Additionally, in the 2024 campaign, Rogers consistently outperformed his polling. Taken together, these factors underscore that the 2026 Michigan race remains wide open.

Minnesota

The Minnesota campaign being virtually tied in polling is a considerable surprise given that the state is the most reliably Democratic political entity in the country. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican presidential candidate was in 1972 for President Richard Nixon; every other state has supported at least one Republican nominee since. Still, Republicans do occasionally win Minnesota statewide offices.

GOP nominee Michele Tafoya, a former national sportscaster who built her media career in Minnesota, appears to be gaining traction. Polling suggests her attacks on government corruption within various transfer‑payment programs are resonating, particularly her criticism of Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) administration as lax and incompetent. Her opponent, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), has seen the polling gap narrow as Tafoya’s message takes hold.

Whether Tafoya can ultimately cross the finish line as a winner remains uncertain, but the tightening numbers indicate that an upset is clearly possible.

Fox: The Sky is Falling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 28, 2026

Senate

Fox News is reporting that 12 US Senate races are competitive enough for Democrats to potentially win the majority. As part of the story, American Majority CEO Ned Ryun – son of former Republican Congressman Jim Ryun – argues that Republicans are “whistling by the graveyard” regarding the coming Senate elections.

Fox may be highlighting such narratives to motivate the Republican base, but a network that brands itself as “fair and balanced” should also weigh factors that place the GOP’s outlook in a more measured perspective.

To begin with, of the 12 races cited, Democrats already control four. Even if they win all of these, they would not reduce the Republican advantage. For Democrats to claim Senate control, they must flip four Republican‑held seats.

The four competitive Democratic states are Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Michigan is likely the most important Senate race in terms of signaling which party may ultimately secure the majority. If former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers (R) wins, Democrats would need to convert five Republican seats rather than four, since retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) currently holds the Wolverine State seat.

Realistically, a Rogers victory is a strong possibility. Across six polling aggregator sites, Democratic nominee Abdul El‑Sayed averages just 45.7 percent support. While El‑Sayed still leads in several polls, the persistent polling error of the Trump era – underestimating Republican vote share – suggests that this low Democratic average is a troubling sign for the Democrat’s campaign regardless of Rogers’ numbers.

Fox rates New Hampshire as lean Democratic. Yet the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll (Aug. 20–24; 1,878 likely voters; online) finds former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) leading Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) 45-43 percent.

Additionally, not factored into Fox’s assessment is the Sununu family’s electoral history: former Gov. John Sununu, former Gov. Chris Sununu, and John E. Sununu have collectively won 11 New Hampshire elections over 44 years, losing only once.

Furthermore, the same UNH poll shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) ahead of her Democratic opponent by 10 points. These indicators fail to suggest a favorable New Hampshire Democratic climate.

Fox also labels the open Minnesota race as likely Democratic, yet polling shows Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, the former national sportscaster, consistently within the polling margin of error. She has gained traction by attacking fraud uncovered in Minnesota’s administration of certain federal transfer‑payment programs.

Moreover, even though Minnesota is a reliably Democratic state, it is arguable that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, positioned on the far left, was the weaker of the two candidates who could have won the Democratic nomination.

Georgia is rated lean Democratic, which is accurate today. Given that all Georgia Senate races in 2020 and 2022 advanced to runoffs means this contest may tighten as Election Day approaches, however. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) defends his seat against Republican Congressman Mike Collins.

Turning to Republican seats, Fox rates the Kansas seat of Sen. Roger Marshall (R) as only lean Republican, despite the fact that the Jayhawk State has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. Sen. Marshall holds at least $5 million cash‑on‑hand, more than double his opponent, and Democrats failed to recruit their strongest prospect, Rep. Sharice Davids.

Fox calls Iowa a toss‑up, even though Republicans have Rep. Ashley Hinson as their nominee. Hinson is a strong media-savvy campaigner, has raised $4 million more than her opponent, and leads 45-41 percent in the latest independent Suffolk University poll (Aug. 20-23; 500 likely voters; live interview). She is also in a better position than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R) was at a comparable point in both of her successful campaigns.

Nebraska, rated only lean Republican, appears to be a replay of 2024. Independent Dan Osborn unified Democrats behind him two years ago, cleared the field, and raised millions – yet still lost by six points. He is attempting the same strategy now, but Sen. Pete Ricketts (R), who has averaged 59 percent in his three statewide races and has more than $200 million in personal resources, is in a stronger position than Sen. Deb Fischer was in 2024.

In Ohio, appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) is running even or slightly behind former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), similar to current Sen. Bernie Moreno’s position two years ago. It is important to remember that Sherrod Brown lost his last election by over three percentage points even though he gained 296,000 votes when compared to his last victory in 2018 while spending over $100 million.

Ohio has shifted so consistently to the right in the Trump era that Democrats no longer include it in their “Blue Wall” as they originally did when discussing presidential prospects.

Turning to Maine, Democrats were forced to replace Senate nominee Graham Platner – who set a record for votes in a Democratic primary – with a candidate who placed third in the 2026 Governor’s primary.

While Democrats appear to be running even or slightly ahead of Sen. Susan Collins (R) today, history matters: in 2020, Collins’ opponents spent $62 million in a state of just 1.3 million people, and their candidate led in every public poll. Sen. Collins ultimately won by 8.5 points, securing her fifth statewide victory.

Texas Republicans clearly have a flawed nominee in Attorney General Ken Paxton, but he has won three statewide general elections and three major statewide primaries, including defeating four‑term Sen. John Cornyn by 28 points in this year’s runoff.

Republicans also consistently under‑poll in Texas. President Trump led by seven percentage points in 2024 polling but won by 13. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democrat Colin Allred by approximately four points in polling two years ago but won by eight percentage points – against an opponent far less liberal than current nominee James Talarico.

Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) posted a weak jungle primary showing last week, but former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) lost her 2024 race despite placing first in that year’s qualifying election, and Sullivan’s campaign will now swing into full action. Polling so far has accurately portrayed Peltola as leading the race, but an ultimate Sullivan victory is still within reach.

The open North Carolina race is Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a Republican seat. Former two-term Governor and four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) is a clear favorite over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley and that projection likely won’t change.

Considering that polling in the Trump era has consistently under‑estimated Republican candidates and Democrats often appear stronger early, the 2026 cycle remains far from delivering a new Democratic Senate majority, even if some Republicans are, as Ryun suggests, “whistling by the graveyard.”

Graham Wins South Carolina Runoff; GA-13 Seat Filled

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 26, 2026

South Carolina

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham won last night’s South Carolina special Republican US Senate runoff, defeating Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) with 52.5 percent of the vote.

Several notable dynamics emerged from the result. First, turnout – projected at roughly 370,000 votes – exceeded the Aug. 11 special primary by about 35,000 voters. It is unusual for a runoff to draw more participation than the associated primary, thus underscoring the atypical circumstances surrounding the 2026 South Carolina Senate race.

Second, the vote split sharply along geographic lines. The state’s northern neck backed Rep. Norman, while the remainder of South Carolina voted uniformly for Sen. Graham. She carried the major population centers of the Charleston metropolitan area where she averaged approximately 62 percent of the vote, and the Columbia metro region with an average percentage of 58.

The pivotal area, however, was Myrtle Beach and the northeastern 7th Congressional District. This is where President Trump held a rally for Sen. Graham on Saturday and the district that Rep. Russell Fry (R-Murrell’s Inlet) represents. Fry finished third in the Senate primary but endorsed Graham in the runoff. In Horry County, the region’s population anchor, Sen. Graham received 73 percent of the vote and posted similar margins in the surrounding counties.

Third, however, is Rep. Norman’s strength, which was concentrated in the northwestern part of the state. He carried his home 5th Congressional District, anchored in Rock Hill, and the counties along the North Carolina border. He also proved victorious in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th CD. More strikingly, Rep. Norman carried the Graham family’s home county of Pickens with 58 percent and much of the 3rd District that Lindsey Graham represented during his US House tenure.

Sen. Darline Graham now advances to the general election, where she will be favored against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who won her party’s nomination outright in the regular primary on June 2.

GA-13

The runoff election to fill the late Congressman David Scott’s (D) seat for the remainder of this legislative session was also held last night in Georgia.

With turnout likely to finish below 19,000 voters, former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair defeated the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott, by a 54-46 percent margin. Scott had placed first in the initial special election in late July with 46 percent against four Democratic opponents but was forced into a secondary election because she did not obtain majority support.

Blair takes office immediately but will serve only until the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027. The regular cycle Democratic nominee is state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn), who won the May primary outright with 56 percent against five opponents, including Blair. She is expected to win the November general election easily in a district with a 68.9D–29.5R partisan lean, according to Dave’s Redistricting App.

Blair carried only one of the district’s counties, but his 70 percent showing in his home county of Gwinnett was enough to secure the districtwide victory. Georgia’s 13th District includes portions of four Atlanta metropolitan counties east of the city.

Oklahoma

Last night’s Republican gubernatorial runoff proved to be a nail‑biter, and while a recount may still be ordered, initial results indicate that former state Budget Director and ex‑state Sen. Mike Mazzei edged Attorney General Gentner Drummond with 50.3 percent of the vote.

The lone public poll of the race – from Oklahoma‑based CHS & Associates – accurately projected a dead‑heat finish. Mazzei, who earned President Trump’s endorsement, dominated eastern Oklahoma, while AG Drummond won the state’s largest population center, Oklahoma City, with just under 52 percent. Drummond also performed well in the rural western counties.

The two essentially broke even in Tulsa County, the state’s second‑largest population hub, where the Attorney General held a lead of only 268 votes.

Mazzei, who also received the endorsement of term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson (D-Lawton), the state House Minority Leader who won her party’s June primary.

In the Democratic US Senate runoff, nurse and Democratic Socialist N’Kiyla Thomas easily defeated retired attorney and minister Jim Priest. She now faces Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), where she enters the general election as a clear underdog. The winner will succeed appointed Sena. Alan Armstrong (R), who replaced Markwayne Mullin after President Trump appointed him Homeland Security Secretary.

Tomorrow’s Election Trio

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 24, 2026

Tomorrow’s voting slate features only three elections: the special Republican runoff in South Carolina to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot, the open GOP gubernatorial runoff in Oklahoma, and the special election to fill the late Rep. David Scott’s (D‑GA) seat in the Atlanta metro area.

South Carolina

The special Republican runoff to determine who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the general election ballot is difficult to handicap. Appointed Sen. Darline Graham, who initially agreed to serve only as a caretaker, ultimately chose to run for the full six‑year term at President Trump’s urging. Though she finished first in the Aug. 11 special primary, her 33 percent showing was underwhelming.

To put her vote percentage into perspective, Darline Graham received only 57 percent of the number of votes Lindsey Graham recorded in the 2026 Republican primary just weeks before he passed away. That comparison accounts for the 28 percent turnout drop between the June 9 regular primary and the Aug. 11 special. While Sen. Graham remains the favorite heading into tomorrow’s runoff, the race is clearly fluid.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R‑Rock Hill), who risked his House seat to run for Governor and finished third in that primary, received 80,790 votes. Entering the Aug. 11 special Senate primary, he improved slightly to 82,541 votes but secured the second runoff slot.

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s runoff, it is reasonable to assume Norman can again reach or slightly exceed the 80,000‑vote mark. Whether that is enough to overtake Sen. Graham is doubtful, but turnout is likely to fall again. The compressed two‑week runoff window and only three days of early voting could suppress participation to an abnormally low level. From Rep. Norman’s perspective, the lower the turnout, the better his chances of pulling an upset.

Sen. Graham’s debate misstep – admitting she is not well‑versed on national security issues – may also give some voters pause. Norman has used the clip, though only subtly, so far avoiding a full‑scale media barrage. Graham’s advantages include her 109,000‑vote primary total and President Trump’s endorsement, along with the backing of third‑place finisher Rep. Russell Fry (R‑Murrell’s Inlet/Myrtle Beach). Whether Fry’s supporters migrate to Sen. Graham in meaningful numbers remains an open question.

Rep. Norman’s potential vote pool includes Republican base voters who were not always aligned with Lindsey Graham, and those who backed businessman Mark Lynch in both Senate primaries. Lynch’s supporters – 134,360 in the regular primary and 19,862 in the special – clearly voted against a Graham twice and could again break toward Norman.

This runoff is particularly intriguing because no polling has been released to provide any result clues. Sen. Graham must still be considered the favorite, but a close finish appears likely, and a Norman upset is possible. The winner will be favored to defeat Democrat Annie Andrews in November.

GA-13

Rep. David Scott’s (D‑Atlanta) death in April triggered tomorrow’s special runoff to fill the remainder of his term. In the July 28 special Democratic primary, his daughter, Marcye Scott, led the field with 47.6 percent in a crowded race. Because no candidate reached the 50 percent threshold, she now faces former Gwinnett School Board chairman Everton Blair, who finished second with 36.1 percent, in the runoff election.

Tomorrow’s election will determine only who completes the late Congressman’s current term. The regular general election winner will be state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), who secured the Democratic nomination through the standard nomination process. She will begin a full two‑year term on Jan. 3 when the 120th Congress convenes.

Regardless of tomorrow’s outcome, the winner’s tenure will be brief.

Oklahoma

The Oklahoma gubernatorial runoff is expected to be close, reflecting the tight finish in the open regular primary where Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Budget Secretary and three‑term state Sen. Mike Mazzei were separated by just 1,141 votes (Drummond 26.3 percent; Mazzei 26.0 percent). The pair finished well ahead of seven other Republican contenders.

The only published runoff survey (CHS & Associates; Aug. 2-4; 600 likely Oklahoma GOP runoff voters) shows the race deadlocked at 44 percent apiece. In the primary, AG Drummond ran strongly in the Tulsa area, while Mazzei was dominant in eastern Oklahoma.

The runoff also carries significance for President Trump. Three of his endorsed candidates lost their nomination contests last Tuesday, and his backing of Mazzei, joined by term‑limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R), will again draw scrutiny, particularly if his preferred candidate falls short.

Tomorrow’s winner will enter the general election as the favorite against Democratic nominee Cyndi Munson, the state House Minority Leader.

Georgia Special Election to Runoff;
SD Gov. Rhoden Nominated

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 29, 2026

GA-13

Marcye Scott (D), daughter of the late Congressman David Scott.

In April, 12‑term Rep. David Scott (D‑Atlanta), the brother‑in‑law of legendary Atlanta Braves star Hank Aaron, passed away at age 80, leaving Georgia’s Atlanta‑area 13th District vacant. Before his service in Congress, Scott served five terms in the state Senate and four in the Georgia House of Representatives.

In last night’s special election to fill the remainder of the current term, the late Congressman’s daughter, Marcye Scott (D), placed first among three Democratic and two Republican candidates. She fell short of the 50 percent threshold to win outright, receiving 46 percent of the vote, which sends her and state Sen. Everton Blair (D‑Stone Mountain), who finished second with 37 percent, to an Aug. 25 special general election.

State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won the regular Democratic primary and is the party’s nominee for the November general election. Given the district’s strong Democratic lean, Clark will win the seat in November. She chose not to run in the special election, knowing that she will be sworn into office when the 120th Congress convenes in January. Clark is a prohibitive favorite over Republican nominee Jonathan Chavez.

Georgia’s 13th District wraps around the eastern side of Atlanta and touches six counties: Rockdale in full, and parts of Clayton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Henry, and Newton. The district is solidly Democratic, with a 68.9D – 29.5R partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App). Its population is 72.2 percent minority, including a 51.4 percent Black voting age population. It is one of four Atlanta‑metro districts with a majority‑Black population.

The Georgia legislature will enter a special session after the 2026 election to redraw its congressional map in response to the US Supreme Court’s Callais v. Louisiana ruling, which eliminates federal protection for majority‑minority districts. Under the ruling, aligned with the Constitution rather than the affected sections of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, race may no longer be a factor in drawing district boundaries.

As a result, the Atlanta‑area map will be significantly reconfigured. While many metro districts will still contain large minority populations due to regional demographics, the current configuration of four majority‑minority districts is unlikely to remain intact. The 13th District, which sits on the metro’s outer ring and spans multiple counties, is particularly likely to undergo major changes, and could conceivably receive a new district number for the 2028 cycle.

With the Scott vacancy now headed to a runoff, three other House seats remain vacant. The California district of resigned Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) will be filled on Aug. 18. No special elections have yet been scheduled to replace resigned Reps. Tony Gonzales (R‑TX) and Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick (D‑FL).

South Dakota – Governor

In the Mount Rushmore State’s Republican gubernatorial runoff last night, Gov. Larry Rhoden secured the 2026 GOP nomination with a decisive 71–29 percent victory over businessman Toby Doeden.

In the June 2 primary, Doeden was a surprise first‑place finisher, while Gov. Rhoden narrowly edged at‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R‑Mitchell) for second place and the right to advance to the runoff. Under South Dakota law, a runoff between the top two finishers is required if no candidate receives at least 35 percent of the vote. In the primary, Doeden claimed 30.6 percent, followed by Rhoden at 25.2 percent, Johnson at 23.4 percent, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen at 20.8 percent.

Gov. Rhoden ascended to the governorship at the start of 2025 when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Before winning the Lieutenant Governor’s position on Noem’s 2018 ticket, Rhoden served 16 years in the state legislature – 10 in the House and six in the Senate. In 2014, he ran unsuccessfully for the US Senate, losing the Republican primary to current Senator and former Governor Mike Rounds.

Now, as the official Republican nominee, Gov. Rhoden is well positioned for November and will easily defeat former state Sen. Dan Ahlers (D) and win the Governorship in his own right.

Moore, Collins Win Senate Runoffs; Hern has Solid Win in Oklahoma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 17

Runoffs were conducted in both Alabama and Georgia yesterday; Oklahoma hosted its primary election. Most of these states’ notable races now have nominees.

Alabama

The Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Last night’s winner is Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44 percent margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff last night.

Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19 by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified. Former President Trump endorsed Moore during the primary.

Georgia

Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.

Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.

For his part, though recording the victory last night, Rep. Collins lost all the Atlanta metro counties but won everywhere else in the state. If he is to unseat Sen. Ossoff, Collins must improve his performance in the region’s largest population area.

In the Governor’s race, a Trump-endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Burt Jones, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, who was endorsed by both President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19 primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.

Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington last night. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35 percent victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson.

Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).

Oklahoma

The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70 percent of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.

Democrats will choose their nominee in an Aug. 25 runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.

The Oklahoma Senate seat is open because then-incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) resigned to accept President Trump’s appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Mullin’s replacement in the Senate, businessman Alan Armstrong (R), as an interim appointment is ineligible to run for a full term under the state’s succession law.

In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32 percent in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. The Republican runoff winner will be the heavy favorite to win the general election.

In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated last night. Each exceeded the 70 percent vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination.

All four House incumbents, and the winner of the 1st District Republican runoff, will all enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.

Runoff Previews: Alabama & Georgia

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 15, 2026

Another round of voting occurs tomorrow as Alabama and Georgia hold runoff elections, while Oklahoma voters begin selecting their 2026 nominees. Today’s focus is on the runoffs; an Oklahoma primary preview follows tomorrow.

Alabama

The Alabama Republican US Senate nomination will be decided tomorrow, and it is clear that retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson has generated late campaign momentum. Emphasizing his outsider message and Christian faith, Hudson has steadily gained support and may be peaking at the right moment.

In the May 19 primary, Hudson surged to edge Attorney General Steve Marshall, the early frontrunner. Rep. Barry Moore (R Enterprise) led the initial vote with 39.2 percent, while Hudson secured the second runoff slot over Marshall with a 25.6 to 24.5 percent margin – a difference of exactly 5,300 votes.

Rep. Moore carries former President Trump’s endorsement, which has proven decisive in nearly every primary this cycle with one exception (Rep. Randy Feenstra’s loss in the Iowa gubernatorial primary). House members running in competitive primaries, however, have struggled overall. Across nine states, House incumbents seeking another office this year – or even renomination against strong challengers – have won just two of 16 contests, though three, including Moore, advanced to runoffs.

Two June polls brandish split conclusions. A Strategy Management survey (May 29-June 4; 1,300 likely GOP runoff voters; online) found Hudson ahead 42-37 percent. A co/efficient poll conducted within the same time period (June 3-4; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) showed Moore leading 46-37 percent. With turnout expected to drop when compared with the primary, the race remains highly competitive.

On the Democratic side, businessman Dakarai Larriett and attorney Everett Wess compete for the nomination. Regardless of the Democratic outcome the Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite.

Only one US House runoff appears on the Alabama ballot: the Democratic contest in the 5th District. The winner will be a heavy underdog against two term Rep. Dale Strong (R Huntsville).

Because the new redistricting map significantly altered several districts, primaries for the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th Congressional Districts will be held on Aug. 11. These will be plurality primaries with no runoffs.

Georgia

Two major statewide Republican runoffs will be decided tomorrow.

In the Governor’s race, recent polling suggests businessman Rick Jackson is pulling away from Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and is now favored to clinch the nomination. Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor who secured her party’s nomination outright on May 19, awaits. With Gov. Brian Kemp (R) term limited, the open general election is expected to be competitive in a Georgia that is now widely regarded as a swing state.

The Republican Senate runoff may be closer. The contest features Rep. Mike Collins (R Jackson) against former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, who surged late to edge Rep. Buddy Carter (R Pooler/Savannah) for the second runoff position. Early post primary polling suggested Collins held a clear advantage, but Dooley has gained momentum, setting up an intriguing finish.

The winner will challenge first term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who has raised more money than any other candidate in the country. Ossoff begins the general election as the favorite, though the race is expected to tighten.

In the US House, Democratic runoffs will occur in the open 1st and 7th Districts. In the 1st, the Democratic nominee will face insurance broker Jim Kingston – son of former 11-term Rep. Jack Kingston – who won the GOP nomination outright on May 19 and enters November as a heavy favorite. In the 7th CD, the Democratic winner will challenge two term Rep. Rich McCormick (R Suwanee), who is also strongly favored to hold his seat.

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), probably the President’s top Republican US House nemesis, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. The vote split was 55-45 percent in Gallrein’s favor and capped a victory week for the President.

Trump’s endorsed candidates defeated two of his Republican targets in Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Massie, and the Republicans recorded several redistricting legislative and judicial victories that improves the party’s position of holding their small US House majority.

Alabama

As expected, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries last night. The result precludes a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Tuberville recorded a 60-40 percent victory.

In the Senate race, also as expected, Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. It may take several days to determine the second place finisher.

For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16.

All US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties held open contests to choose their 2026 gubernatorial nominees. In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16 second round.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56 percent against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other US candidate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Dooley edged Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16 runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.

Turning to the Georgia House races, Jim Kingston, son of former Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52 percent victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Kingston of election in November.

In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67 percent against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.

The race to replace retiring 11th District Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. Finishing third in an upset result is Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore who was favored as a runoff participant. The June 16 Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.

In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56 percent of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Clark.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 64 percent victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November.

Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 60 percent of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee.

Kentucky

In addition to the Massie defeat, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican Senate nomination with a solid 60 percent victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.

For the Democrats, former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36 percent victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

In Rep. Barr’s open 6th District, former state Senator and 2019 Lieutenant Governor nominee Ralph Alverado, who left the state to become Tennessee’s State Health Commissioner before returning, won the Republican nomination with 56 percent over four opponents. He will face Democratic winner Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran. This general election campaign could turn competitive, though Alvarado begins the campaign as the November favorite.

The four other congressional incumbents seeking renomination all won easily.

Oregon

All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.

The electorates in three competitive Republican House districts chose their Democratic nominees last night, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination last night. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49 percent victory two years ago scored a 67 percent victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas meaning the November rematch is set.

Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sent a Republican to the US House.

In the 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44 percent of the vote. Rabb will succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) in the general election.