Tag Archives: Georgia

50-State Presidential Map; Fischer on Offense in Nebraska; Ohio Data Shows Tightening Race; A Casey Rebound in Pennsylvania

Morning Consult 2024 Election – State Polls (click on image to go to Morning Consult)

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 12, 2024

President

Morning Consult: Releases 50-State Presidential Map — The Morning Consult survey research organization conducts ongoing tracking surveys on a continuous basis and published a national map regarding presidential race polling. The results produced only two surprises.

In rating all of the states toward either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, all of the traditional swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are rated as toss-ups as one would expect. The two surprises lying in the Morning Consult toss-up category, however, are Maine and New Hampshire. Adding these two states to the undecided, if confirmed, could change the election outlook.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer on Offense — Within the last week, polling has been released confirming earlier surveys that Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is in a surprisingly tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn. The senator is taking action. Her campaign has launched an attack ad against Osborn, questioning his independent credentials, tying him to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I), attacking him on abortion and the Green New Deal, and calling him a “Trojan Horse.”

The Fischer offensive move suggests that the campaign’s internal polling confirms what the public polls have reported: that a surprising close race is unfolding.

Ohio: More Data Suggesting a Closer Race — We now see a new release from Morning Consult (Aug. 30-Sept. 8; 1,558 likely Ohio voters; online panel) that also finds the Ohio Senate race getting closer. The MC ballot test results confirm in almost identical fashion the most recently released survey that finds Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D) lead dwindling. Morning Consult posted a 46-43 percent result.

The previous Emerson College survey (Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) released late last week produced a 46-44 percent split between Sen. Brown and Republican nominee Bernie Moreno. Previously, 10 consecutive polls found Brown’s edge to be on or around five percentage points, but he only secured majority support in two of the studies.

Since research shows that Sen. Brown over-polled in his previous race (2018) – his polling lead was 13 points headed into the election, but his victory margin was six – the current campaign is likely to get even tighter as we continue to move toward election month.

Pennsylvania: A Casey Rebound — At the end of August, four Pennsylvania Senate race polls found the contest between Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and Republican businessman David McCormick falling into the toss-up realm with a ballot test range of 0-4 percentage points. It appeared a new race trend could be developing.

Now, however, we see Sen. Casey rebounding in an even newer series of studies. From the period of Sept. 3-9, four polls were released (CBS News; co/efficient; Morning Consult; and Redfield and Wilton Strategies) that produced data revealing Casey leads of 7, 9, 9, and 8 percentage points, yet the senator never reached 50 percent in any. The Pennsylvania Senate race should continue to be rated as Lean Democratic.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.

New Hampshire & New Mexico

Could New Hampshire & New Mexico be in play for Republicans?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 19, 2024

President

Even before the Trump assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention commenced, polling was beginning to suggest that some unusual states were venturing into the competitive realm.

At this point in the election cycle, it appears that the top conversion targets for the Trump campaign are Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Together, these states would deliver 33 of the 35 conversion electoral votes (from those states that voted for President Biden in 2020 but are strong potential Trump states in 2024) the former president would need to win the national election.

In the trio of these states since the beginning of this year, Trump has not trailed in any of the cumulative 62 polls from 15 different pollsters conducted in the three entities. If these states vote Trump in 2024, then the electoral map significantly changes.

Obviously, beyond Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, the three commonly discussed Great Lakes states are clear battleground regions: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Now, however, cumulative polling suggests other places could be potential Trump conversion opportunities. It is important, however, to determine which might legitimate prospects to flip as compared to those where the newly crowned Republican nominee could do well but might only come close to President Biden’s vote percentage.

The states in question are Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. One victory in any of the aforementioned, or converting the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska (via an Electoral College tie), would award the election to former President Trump, assuming all 25 states that he twice carried return to his column.

While a Trump plurality victory is certainly within the realm of possibility in Maine since polling suggests his lead in the northern ME-2 district is at or near 20 percentage points, his chances of losing the 1st District by less than such a spread are good. Therefore, Trump could reasonably place first in Maine. His problem is the state’s Ranked Choice Voting system. Because it is doubtful he could secure majority support in the state — more than 50 percent — Trump would likely lose to President Biden in the RCV rounds.

Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in modern presidential campaign history. The last time the Land of 10,000 Lakes voted for a Republican in the national election came in 1972 when the state chose then-President Richard Nixon over then-Sen. George McGovern (D). Every other state has voted for a Republican at least one time since that election. In 2016, Mr. Trump came within 1.5 points of Hillary Clinton in Minnesota, which is probably the best he could do in 2024.

New Jersey is a state where Republicans poll better than they run, unlike some of the southern states where the opposite is true. The latest publicly released survey (co/efficient; June 26-27; 810 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) found Trump actually posting a slight 41-40 percent lead over President Biden in the Garden State. Such a margin is unlikely to occur when actual votes are cast, making New Jersey a “fool’s gold” state for Republicans.

Virginia also is unlikely to flip. The Washington, DC metro area in its entirety, meaning the city itself as well as the Northern Virginia and Maryland suburbs, is historically Trump’s worst-performing area in the country. Therefore, looking at the increased population in northern Virginia and Trump’s unpopularity in the region suggests that his three-point deficit spread found in the July 12-15 Florida Atlantic University survey of 918 likely Virginia voters is the closest that Trump will come to victory in the state.

The New Hampshire and New Mexico situations, however, look different. Both states are small, campaigning is relatively cheap, and though they have Democratic voting histories certainly since 2016, both could be seriously in play come November.

New Hampshire has elected a Republican governor in four straight elections and though outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is no fan of Trump’s, he pledged to vote for him and if the state is in a position to make a national difference, the governor will put the campaign levers in place to help push Trump over the top.

New Hampshire, however, has not been kind to the Republican presidential candidates. Since the 2012 presidential election, national Republican nominees have averaged only 46.1 percent of the vote as compared to the Democratic contenders 50.5 percent. Yet, the Granite State still has swing characteristics.

The New Mexico numbers are slightly worse than those in New Hampshire. The cumulative average in presidential races since 2012, inclusive, finds the Democratic nominee attracting a mean average of 51.8 percent compared to the Republicans’ 42.1 percent. Yet, with a plurality Hispanic Voting Age Population figure (44.3 percent Hispanic; 40.5 percent Anglo), and more Hispanic voters professing openness toward Republicans, the state may well be closer in 2024 than what previous statistics show.

If the Trump campaign is to overcome their electoral vote deficit, they must first expand the playing field, which they appear to be doing, continue to concentrate on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and then invest in some longer-shot states in the hope that one comes through. Two such candidates for long-shot victory are clearly New Hampshire and New Mexico.

Surprising Swing State Polling

SWING STATES: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Polling

Bloomberg News, partnering with the Morning Consult public affairs organization, released post-debate polling data in the seven key swing states during the July 4th holiday break. The survey results raised eyebrows in several ways.

Morning Consult conducted the studies in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. They surveyed voters from July 1-4 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the sampling period was extended to a fifth day, expanding the interview time to July 1-5.

The sampling universe in each state spanned from a low of 452 registered voters (Nevada) to a high of 794 registered voters (Pennsylvania). In each case, the respondent universe was selected through a stratified sampling process and the individuals answered the survey questions online.

In each state, the pollsters tested President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump with Independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and usually a combination of the other independent or minor party candidates, Jill Stein (Green Party), Dr. Cornel West (Independent), and Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). The pollsters also asked a follow-up question that isolated Biden and Trump in a one-on-one pairing.

The Bloomberg/Morning Consult analysis indicated that the debate, contrary to the opinion of many television news pundits and several Democratic officials who are calling for President Biden to withdraw from the race, has changed little in terms of the political horse race among the states that will largely determine the November outcome.

This may or may not be the case, and further research is needed to better determine where the national election stands. Though President Biden was detected as leading in two states, Michigan and Wisconsin, over 55 percent from the aggregate seven-state sample stated their belief that he should withdraw from the campaign. This number includes 58 percent responding in such a manner from the Independent segment and 29 percent who self-identify as Democratic participants.

Conversely, former President Trump hit an all-time high in a Pennsylvania survey, as Bloomberg/Morning Consult detected a seven-point advantage when the two presumptive nominees were tested in a head-to-head question. Staying with the Pennsylvania head-to-head, the Trump support number reached 51 percent, which is the only such result for either candidate within the whole seven-state survey series. In two other states, Arizona and Nevada, Trump reached the 48 percent plateau on the head-to-head question. President Biden reached as high as 48 percent in only one state, Michigan, again in response to the head-to-head question.

In Arizona, Trump led Biden by seven percentage points when the independent and minor party candidates were included. His lead dropped to three points in the head-to-head question. The seven points represented an improvement here for Trump, though he has led in all 20 Arizona polls conducted since Jan. 1.

The Georgia numbers still favored Trump but appeared to be down a bit from other recent surveys. As in Arizona, Trump has led in every poll conducted here (17) since the first of this year.

Michigan has been back and forth all year, usually by a point or two. This Bloomberg/ Morning Consult poll, however, stakes Biden to one of his better showings, leading Trump by six points within the multiple candidate field and five in the head-to-head pairing.

Nevada is the third state where Trump has led or been tied in all 2024 surveys (17). In the Bloomberg/MC poll, his numbers are still strong. Within the multiple candidate field, Trump holds a six-point lead as compared to a plus-3 margin in the head-to-head.

North Carolina is another state where Trump continues to poll well. In the Bloomberg/MC study, he leads the multiple candidate field by two points, and three over Biden in the head-to-head. This from a state where he led in only 25 percent of the 2020 polls yet carried the final total by just over a percentage point.

As previously mentioned, Trump scores his best head-to-head number of the cycle (plus-7) in the Bloomberg/MC Pennsylvania poll. From the multiple candidate field, his lead is three percentage points.

Wisconsin is the other state where Biden forges a current lead according to the Bloomberg/MC data. Here, the president has a two-point edge within the multiple candidate field and three over Trump in the head-to-head.

As we have seen, several of the data segments produced unusual patterns, meaning more information is needed to obtain a better post-debate picture of how the electorate is responding. Even though this polling series generally shows Biden rebounding from the debate, it appears that former President Trump would convert four states (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania) and keep North Carolina, which would allow him to exceed the 270 electoral vote threshold (287 EVs) and claim the presidency.