Tag Archives: Georgia

Redistricting Disarray: Alabama Yes, Georgia No, Louisiana Back to Jungle

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 4, 2026

Redistricting

The Supreme Court ruling on the Callais v. Louisiana racial gerrymandering case has thrown the House election cycle into disarray. As a result of the high court’s decision, redistricting options are again being contemplated in several states.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R), despite previously stating she opposed redistricting ahead of the 2026 elections, issued a proclamation on Friday calling the legislature into special session later today to redraw the state’s congressional and state Senate maps.

Alabama is in exactly the same situation now as Louisiana. Under court orders, both states were required to redraw their 2021 congressional maps to add a majority minority district. Following last week’s Supreme Court Callais ruling, those revised maps are now invalid.

It is probable that the Alabama legislature will revert to a map like the one enacted in 2021. Such a plan would collapse Rep. Shomari Figures’ (D‑Montgomery) current District 2 and shift the seat back to southeast Alabama. That change would likely return the state’s congressional delegation to a 6R–1D alignment, rather than the current 5R–2D split.

The principal beneficiary of such a map would be former Congressman Jerry Carl (R), who lost his seat in a 2024 paired‑incumbent primary. He is currently running in the reconfigured 1st District now that incumbent Rep. Barry Moore (R) is seeking a Senate seat. Carl, however, trails state Rep. Rhett Marques (R‑Enterprise) in a recently released poll.

A new map would likely restore Mobile County as the population anchor of District 1 and shift District 2 back to southeast Alabama. Such a draw would allow both Carl and Marques to run in separate districts. While each would still face primary competition under a new configuration, they would no longer be forced to run against one another.

The Alabama primary is scheduled for May 19, which means the legislature will have to act quickly. The most likely scenario is that the regular primary proceeds as planned for all offices except the US House of Representatives and state Senate. Once new maps are enacted, a separate filing period and new primary dates for those offices would be set for later in the year.

Georgia is another state that could potentially redraw its congressional map, but with candidate filing already closed and the May 19 primary fast approaching, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is taking the opposite position of Gov. Ivey. Kemp said he does not support redistricting for 2026, though indicated he would be open to considering a new map for the 2028 election cycle.

In Louisiana, state Senate President Cameron Henry (R‑Metairie) said Friday that the 2026 election scheduling decision will likely return the state’s US House races to the jungle primary format that has been in place since the late 1970s.

Gov. Jeff Landry (R) has already suspended the May 16 primary for US House campaigns in response to the Supreme Court ruling. The other affected contests, most notably the US Senate race, will continue to proceed under the May 16 partisan primary schedule.

With other offices still operating under the jungle primary system, which runs concurrently with the November general election and employs December runoffs when no candidate wins a majority, it is likely the Governor will simply return the US House races to this previous format and election calendar. Such would be the least expensive way for the state to conduct elections under a revised schedule.

Once the Virginia state Supreme Court renders a decision upholding the April 21 redistricting referendum, and the new Florida plan wins approval from its state Supreme Court after a lawsuit is formally filed, along with Alabama and Louisiana overcoming the legal objections to moving their primaries, the national redistricting landscape will finally come into clear focus.

Assuming all of these courts rule as suggested, we can reasonably predict that the new California and Texas maps would offset one another in terms of partisan gains, as would the changes in Virginia and Florida. Republicans would probably gain one seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, and North Carolina, with the potential for one or two additional seats in Ohio. Democrats would gain one seat in Utah under that state’s new court‑ordered map.

Therefore, if the national redistricting picture ultimately unfolds as outlined above, the 2026 changes would likely result in Republicans achieving a net gain of four to five seats nationwide.

Georgia Rep. Scott Passes Away;
Virginia Redistricting Overturned

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 23, 2026

GA-13

Georgia Congressman David Scott (D-Atlanta)

Veteran Georgia Congressman David Scott (D-Atlanta) passed away yesterday, making him the fifth House member to die during this Congress. Rep. Scott was first elected to the House from his Atlanta metro district in 2002. During his 24 years of service, he rose to chair the House Agriculture Committee.

The Congressman had faced health challenges for several years, and some observers speculated he might not seek re‑election in 2024. He ultimately did file for another term but passed away before Georgia’s May 19 primary. Because the deadline to remove candidates from the ballot has already passed, his name will remain in place.

Before his election to Congress, Scott served in both the Georgia House of Representatives and state Senate. In total, he held elective office for 52 consecutive years.

Despite Scott’s decision to run again, six Democrats qualified for the primary: state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D‑Decatur), state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair, dentist Heavenly Kimes, and two lesser‑known candidates.

Rep. Scott’s death now requires Gov. Brian Kemp (R) to schedule a special election to fill the remainder of the current term.

Assuming Georgia election law permits it based on required notice and providing adequate campaign time, the Governor would likely align the special election with the June 16 runoff elections. If no candidate secures a majority, the top two finishers would advance to a special runoff, which must occur within 28 days under state law. This process will determine who serves the final months of Scott’s term.

Rep. Scott’s passing comes one day after Florida Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus‑McCormick (D‑Miramar) resigned following a federal indictment and House ethics violations. As a result, the number of open seats heading into the next election has risen to 63.

Of these 63 open seats, 37 are held by Republicans, 21 by Democrats, and five are newly created through redistricting in California, Texas, and Utah.

Among the departing members, 27 are running for other offices (Senate, Governor, or Attorney General), 27 are retiring from elective politics, five seats are open due to redistricting, three members have resigned, two have died — Reps. Scott and Doug LaMalfa (R‑CA) — and incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R‑TX) lost in the March primary. Two retiring members, Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D‑TX) and Burgess Owens (R‑UT), were paired in redrawn districts, so their departures do not create open seats.

The House now has five vacancies: two due to death (Reps. Scott and LaMalfa) and three to recent resignations (former Reps. Eric Swalwell (D‑CA), Tony Gonzales (R‑TX), and Ms. Cherfilus‑McCormick).

Virginia

A day after the people voted 51-49 percent to approve the new Virginia redistricting map, the same judge who initially invalidated the special referendum process, because he ruled that the legislature broke its own internal rules to shorten the process of posting the special statewide vote, issued a new opinion stating that how this particular referendum procedure was administered is unconstitutional.

The judge’s initial ruling is on appeal before the state Supreme Court which has still not issued a decision even though the justices allowed the vote to proceed. Attorney General Jay Jones (D) says he will also appeal the circuit court’s ruling pertaining to the constitutionality of the referendum’s administration.

It is difficult to see a majority Democratic state Supreme Court overturning a vote of the people that favored the Democrats. The fact that the high court allowed the referendum vote to take place is likely an indication that the election result will stand.

First 2028 Decision Looms

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 9, 2026

Super Tuesday

While the 2028 presidential campaign is still almost two full years away, the beginning of an important decision-making process occurs this week.

The Democratic National Committee Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will meet to hear the first oral presentation from the 12 states applying as candidates for the pre-Super Tuesday window; that is, the states allowed to hold delegate-binding primaries or caucuses prior to the March date that will be selected for Super Tuesday voting events. Though the calendar is not yet officially set, Super Tuesday 2028 will likely be March 7.

Under rules in both parties, as many as five states can be designated for the pre-Super Tuesday voting window. Traditionally, four have held window slots: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Republicans kept the traditional calendar in 2024, but Democrats did not.

The DNC dropped Iowa and New Hampshire, though both state Democratic parties held non-binding events (meaning delegates were not apportioned based upon the voting results): Iowa, a caucus, and New Hampshire, a primary. Both states are back again in 2026 applying for an official pre-Super Tuesday window position.

Instead, the 2024 Democratic calendar began in South Carolina, and then went to Nevada. The newcomer in the window became Michigan, which was the first state in the ’24 nominating cycle where both parties held their vote on the same day.

The DNC argument for ejecting Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional prominent positions was that the two states did not adequately represent the Democratic Party’s vote base because the pair have such low minority populations.

While it is unlikely the two will be restored, both the Iowa and New Hampshire state chairmen say their states will continue to hold early votes regardless of the DNC’s ultimate scheduling decision.

The ultimate early window voting schedule is important not only to the states, but to certain likely presidential candidates, namely Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, currently running for a third term, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is in her last year of service. The delegate vote bump from their home states, if in the early window, could give their campaigns a significant early momentum boost directly before Super Tuesday.

The 12 applying states, down from 20 that competed for an early slot in 2024, are, in the East: Delaware and New Hampshire; from the South: Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia; the Midwest: Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan; and, in the West: Nevada and New Mexico.

The Rules and Bylaws Sub-committee will recommend to the full DNC one state from each geographic region and can choose an at-large entry from the remaining eight applicants.

It would be hard to deny South Carolina, since the state has been historically significant in giving candidates from both parties the critical thrust toward winning the national nomination. The Palmetto State became the deciding factor for Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign, giving him the necessary momentum to succeed on Super Tuesday, which made him unstoppable for the party nomination. He would then, of course, go onto win the Presidency that year.

Since it would be difficult to see this panel reversing the 2024 Iowa-New Hampshire decision, it would appear that Delaware will become the Eastern sector pre-Super Tuesday voting state. Likewise, in the West, Nevada would appear to have the inside track to securing a slot since they were one of the traditional early voting states. New Mexico, a newcomer to the application process, is the only other to come forth from the West.

The Midwest decision will likely come down to a choice between Illinois and Michigan. The committee, however, could install both if they again award Michigan the regional slot and give Illinois the at-large position.

In addition to New Mexico applying for the first time, the other three newcomers are North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.

GA-14 Runoff: Republican Fuller Wins

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

GA-14

Local District Attorney and Air National Guard officer Clayton Fuller (R) / Facebook photo

Republicans scored a special election victory in Georgia last night as local District Attorney and Air National Guard officer Clayton Fuller (R) defeated retired Army Brigadier General Shawn Harris (D) with a 56-44 percent victory margin.

The Fuller win was expected since Georgia’s 14th Congressional District is the Republican’s safest Peach State seat, but the victory margin was weaker than what we have typically seen from this region.

There are two principal reasons for the lower GOP vote spread. First, the 2024 redrawn District 14 is not quite as solid as the seat to which resigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) was initially elected and, second, the latest available Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports (pre-election March 18 filing) reveal that Gen. Harris outspent Fuller by a margin of almost 6:1, translating into a $6 million-plus effort for the Democratic candidate.

Georgia’s 14th District covers 10 counties (nine full, and just under 18 percent of Cobb County) in the northwest corner of the Peach State, bordering Tennessee on the north and Alabama to the west. Fuller carried nine of the 10 counties, but lost Cobb County by a significant margin. In order to maximize GOP strength in other districts, the 2024 redistricting map added Democrats from Cobb County to the already Republican-rich 14th, which helped pull Gen. Harris closer.

With the most recent map adding Democrats to the district, expect Rep-Elect Fuller’s future margins to be strong, but not as overwhelming as the previous voter history indicates.

The runoff produced a projected 131,000-plus voters, which is about average for a special general election. In comparison, turnout in the 2024 congressional election during the most recent presidential election featured 378,205 voters. In the 2022 midterm, 258,351 voters participated, or about 32 percent under the presidential election turnout.

The filling of the Georgia US House seat means the open-seat number for the next election recedes to 61. On April 16, New Jersey’s 11th District will be filled in that state’s commensurate special general election thus reducing the open seat count to 60 and bringing the full House to 434 members. The final special election could end on either June 2 or Aug. 4 in California, as voters will choose a replacement for the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R).

The Golden State uses a jungle special election format. If a candidate receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected outright. If not, the top two finishers advance to a special general election.

The New Jersey election is expected to next week produce a Democratic win for former congressional staff member Analilia Mejia. She will replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), who resigned the congressional seat after winning the statewide election in late 2025.

The California special election is largely a battle between former state Senate President Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) and state Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City), though Democrat Audrey Denney is also on the ballot. The winner will have a short tenure in the House and be simultaneously cast into a general election for a vastly different 1st District under the new California redistricting map.

In actuality, the Golden State candidates will be running in two districts on the same day. One election will be to fill the current term in the previous 1st District, while the other is the regular jungle primary in the new 1st CD.

Georgia, Mississippi Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 11, 2026

GA-14 Special Election

GA-14 lies in the northwest corner of Georgia. To see an interactive version of this map, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The special election to replace resigned Rep. Margorie Taylor Greene (R) ended as expected with the top two finishers advancing to an April 7 runoff election from the field of 17 candidates. All contenders were placed on the same ballot irrespective of political party affiliation. Since no one received majority support, advancing to a runoff election is required under Georgia election procedure.

Democratic retired Army Gen. Shawn Harris, who spent over $4 million in his campaign on top of spending more than $3.5 million against Rep. Greene in the 2024 election cycle, finished first but with only 37.3 percent of the vote. Local district attorney Clay Fuller, who had President Trump’s endorsement, finished a close second with 34.9 percent, or 2,853 votes behind Gen. Harris.

Though last night’s Democratic share is better than 14th District historical trends suggest (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 69.2R – 28.9D; Trump ’24: 68.1 – 31.3 percent; Greene ’24: 64.3 – 35.6 percent), the Shawn Harris first-place finish should not be considered so unusual.

Of the 17 candidates on the ballot, only three were Democrats. Considering the Harris campaign’s huge spending figure and not splitting the Democratic vote base among a large field, it was clear that the leading Democrat would at least qualify for the runoff if not finish first. A dozen Republicans were competing for the largest share of the Republican base. Adding the aggregate Republican versus Democrat votes, the GOP combined candidates received 60 percent of the turnout.

Total voter participation exceeded 115,000, which is very strong for a special congressional primary election. In terms of county vote share, a Republican candidate won six of the district’s ten counties while Gen. Harris claimed four. The latter man’s largest total (a 49 percent vote share) occurred in Cobb County, the district’s second largest population center. The strongest Republican vote share was in Murray County where Fuller recorded 48 percent.

Mississippi

No particular surprises from last night’s Mississippi primary results, as both the Republican and Democratic primaries finished as expected.

In the Senate race, incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), as predicted, easily captured renomination with 81 percent of the GOP vote. Also as forecast, she will now face Lowndes County District Attorney Scott Colom who was an easy winner on the Democratic side. Colom scored a 73-18-8 percent victory over two minor opponents to claim the party nomination.

Sen. Hyde-Smith will now be a heavy favorite in the general election. In terms of voter turnout, approximately 9,000 more Republicans than Democrats voted in the statewide intra-party elections.

Turning to the House, Reps. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Tupelo) and Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson) were unopposed for renomination.

In the 1st District, Rep. Kelly will now face the new Democratic nominee, attorney Cliff Johnson who defeated state Rep. Kelvin Buck (D-Holly Springs) with 64 percent of the vote. In a district with a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 63.9R – 35.0D (Trump: ’24: 67.9 – 30.8 percent; Kelly ’24: 69.8 – 30.2 percent), the Congressman becomes a prohibitive favorite in his quest to secure a seventh term.

Agribusinessman and investor Michael Chiaradio was also unopposed in the Democratic primary. Like Rep. Kelly, Congressman Guest must be rated as the clear favorite to secure the general election. The DRA partisan lean for District 3 is 60.7R – 38.3D (Trump ’24: 64.1 – 34.9 percent; Guest ’24: 100 percent).

The 2nd District Democratic primary had drawn some national attention as former congressional staffer Evan Turnage returned to Mississippi and was challenging veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton). Also as predicted, Rep. Thompson was an easy winner, recording an 86-13 percent landslide victory.

The 2nd District is the state’s lone Democratic CD and has a strong partisan voter history. The DRA partisan lean here is 63.8D – 35.5R (Harris ’24: 59.7 – 39.3 percent; Thompson ’24: 62.0 – 38.0 percent). Like Mississippi’s three other congressional incumbents, Rep. Thompson is a lock to win again in November.

Fourth District incumbent Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) was also a big winner in his Republican primary. The Congressman topped former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in a landslide 84-16 percent vote count. He will have little trouble overcoming the new Democratic nominee, state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport) who recorded a 57 percent win over two intra-party contenders.

The 4th District DRA partisan lean is 67.0R – 31.7D (Trump ’24: 70.7 – 28.2 percent; Ezell ’24: 74.0 – 26.0 percent). Obviously, this seat is the strongest Republican congressional district in one of the party’s most loyal states.

Mississippi Primary &
Georgia Special Election Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Primary season continues today in Mississippi as candidates are vying for party nominations in the US Senate campaign and all four US House districts. The special jungle primary to replace resigned Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) is also scheduled for today.

Mississippi

Mississippi state flag

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is on the ballot for a second full term, and she is expected to easily win renomination tonight over physician Sarah Adlakha. Mississippi is a runoff state, but the Senator will certainly eclipse the 50 percent-plus-one vote threshold to secure renomination.

Hyde-Smith was initially appointed to the Senate in 2018 after then-Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy in the 2018 special election, and then again in the 2020 regular election for a full term.

Tonight, Lowndes County District Attorney and former municipal judge Scott Colom is expected to win the Democratic primary, and he too should avoid being forced into a runoff election. He faces two minor Democratic opponents. Sen. Hyde-Smith will be a clear favorite in the general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/ Tupelo) is unopposed for renomination. Two Democrats, ex-state Rep. Kelvin Buck and attorney Cliff Johnson are competing for their party nomination. Since only two contenders are on the ballot, one of them will win tonight. MS-1 is a heavily Republican district, so Rep. Kelly is a prohibitive favorite in November.

The 2nd District Democratic primary is likely to attract the most electoral attention tonight. Here, veteran Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) seeks renomination to an 18th term from the Mississippi Delta CD. His opponent is former congressional aide Evan Turnage, who returns to his home district in one of about a dozen attempts around the country for a younger Democrat attempting to unseat a veteran House member in the party primary. Turnage is a credible candidate, but Rep. Thompson should easily win renomination tonight and sail through another general election.

The 3rd District race is set. Neither Rep. Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Jackson), on the ballot seeking a fifth term, nor Democrat Michael Chiaradio have primary opposition tonight. MS-3 is also a safe Republican seat, so Rep. Guest will cruise to re-election in November.

Turning to the gulf coast 4th District, we see competition in both party primaries. Rep. Mike Ezell (R-Pascagoula) is running for a third term and faces only former congressional aide Sawyer Walters in the GOP primary.

Three Democrats are vying for the opportunity of challenging Rep. Ezell in the general election: state Rep. Jeffrey Hulum (D-Gulfport), business consultant Ryan Grover, and military veteran Paul Blackman comprise the party’s candidate field. Rep. Hulum will be favored to win outright tonight, but Rep. Ezell should have little trouble holding the seat in the November general election.

GA-14

To see an interactive map of the Georgia Congressional Districts and GA-14, go to: Dave’s Redistricting App.

The initial election to replace Rep. Taylor Greene is being held today. A total of 15 Republicans are on the ballot along with three Democrats, a Libertarian Party member and an Independent. If one of the candidates receives an absolute majority, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers irrespective of political party affiliation will advance to an April 7 runoff election.

The eventual special election winner will then serve the balance of the current term. Candidate filing has already closed for the regular term, so it is possible we could see a competitive regular election primary on the Republican side in May regardless of how the special concludes.

For the Democrats, the question to be answered tonight is whether their strongest candidate, retired Army General Shawn Harris, qualifies for the runoff or if two Republicans will advance. The GOP dominates this district, the safest Republican seat in Georgia, but with the vote split among so many party candidates, it will be possible for Gen. Harris to coalesce most of the Democratic vote and secure a runoff position. Doing so might allow him to even finish first.

Gen. Harris has raised and spent $4 million in this race. Running against Rep. Greene in 2024 (he spent $3.5 million but received only 36 percent of the vote), Gen. Harris has become a vacuum for Democratic and left of center campaign dollars. Those contributions have continued for the special election, so we will see what effect the large expenditures will have upon the final vote.

Regardless of what happens tonight, Gen. Harris will return for the regular election. He is unopposed for the party nomination later this year.

For the Republicans, the leading candidates appear to be Lookout Mountain Judicial Circuit District Attorney Clay Fuller who has President Trump’s endorsement. Other contenders sure to attract significant votes are former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover, state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), and Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama.

Key Senate Races Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 16, 2026

Senate

As we know, Republicans currently have a 53-47 Senate majority and the unfolding competitive statewide races suggest that the GOP will retain chamber control, but their margin could lessen.

A total of nine Senate seats are open but only two of those, Michigan and North Carolina, appear hotly competitive for the general election. The remaining seven are projected to retain the party that currently holds the respective seat. Eight of the nine in this group, however, will host highly contested primary elections for at least one party. North Carolina features the only open Senate race where the party nominees already appear set.

Another group of nine seats are contested for the general election, and it is here where Democrats will make a run at taking the Senate majority away from Republicans. To do so, they must reach 51, since Vice President Vance would break a 50-50 tie; Democrats would have to win seven of the nine contested races.

The Republicans are defending seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas, while the Democrats must protect Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Earlier this week former Alaska at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D), who lost her seat to current Rep. Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak) in 2024, surprisingly launched a Senate campaign. Most believed she would enter the open Governor’s race where her prospects appear brighter. In the Senate race, she faces an uphill challenge against two-term incumbent Dan Sullivan (R), who has posted an average winning margin of 14.9 percentage points in his two elections including defeating Democratic Sen. Mark Begich in 2014.

Alaska’s unique top four/Ranked Choice Voting system does give Peltola some chance of winning the Senate race in the same manner as how she cobbled together two US House victories. If she can hold Sullivan under 50 percent in the general election, Ranked Choice Voting will begin and then all bets are off. At the outset, however, Sen. Sullivan is favored to win re-election.

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) is retiring after two terms, and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) appears as a consensus 2026 GOP Senatorial candidate. She will be favored to hold the seat probably against the Democratic leadership’s top choice, state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs), though several credible party members are competing for the nomination.

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) will defend her seat against either Gov. Janet Mills (D) or oysterman Graham Platner. Platner is the chosen Democratic Socialist candidate and has attracted major far left political figures to his campaign such as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). The general election will be close no matter who the Maine Democrats nominate.

North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring after two terms, and we will see a tight contest develop between former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. North Carolina always features tight statewide elections, but for the first time in history Republicans have overtaken Democrats in party registration. This race, however, will likely end in a photo finish.

Appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted (R) faces the voters in his new role for the first time (he previously won two statewide races as Secretary of State and was twice on the gubernatorial ticket with Gov. Mike DeWine), and his opposition will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). The fact that ex-Sen. Brown lost his seat in 2024 even though he garnered almost 293,000 more votes than when he last won in 2018 shows strongly the Ohio electorate is moving to the right.

The Texas Republican primary is likely going to a runoff between two of three candidates: Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Democrats feature a battle between Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin). A better general election picture will be drawn once the party nominees are chosen, but Texas Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994.

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) will be seeking a second term, and he already leads the nation in campaign fundraising. Republicans likely won’t have a nominee until a May runoff election concludes. A secondary election campaign potentially between Reps. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) could well determine who challenges Sen. Ossoff in November.

The most vulnerable Democratic Senate seat may lie in Michigan. Here, an open contest between favored Republican Mike Rogers, a former seven-term Congressman and 2024 US Senate nominee, and one of the following: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), or former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, will take place.

The Michigan Democrats not only face a difficult primary campaign, but the nomination election isn’t until Aug. 4. The lengthy Democratic primary means Rogers will enjoy a long period of political open field running where he can build volunteer support and funding reserves.

Should former Sen. John E. Sununu win the New Hampshire Republican Senatorial nomination — and he is favored to do so over former ex-Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown — the GOP will have a strong candidate to battle presumptive Democratic nominee Chris Pappas, the 1st District Congressman.

Though Pappas will be considered at least a slight favorite to win the general election, the Sununu name in New Hampshire has generally been political magic over the years. The Sununu family, including former Gov. John Sununu, ex-Gov. Chris Sununu, and ex-Senator and former Rep. John E. Sununu, have combined to win 11 major New Hampshire elections.

It remains to be seen if any other Senate contests enter the competitive realm, but electoral history suggests that an unexpected campaign is also likely to reach the political forefront.

Republicans are likely to hold their majority, but all of the aforementioned campaigns should be regularly monitored throughout this election year.

Redistricting Becoming Clearer

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025

Redistricting

Putting together the redistricting puzzle

The redistricting wars may be coming to a head. Recent action has occurred in several states providing a better national redistricting picture in preparation for the 2026 election.

Below is a synopsis of the latest developments:

California: After a majority of California voters approved the special election redistricting referendum, a racial gerrymandering lawsuit was filed against the state’s new map.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court issued a stay on the Texas racial gerrymandering lawsuit, with a rebuke from Justice Samuel Alito to the three-judge panel in El Paso for rendering a decision before the high court ruled on a related Louisiana racial gerrymandering case. Thus, it became clear that all other cases would be held until the high court issues what could be a landmark ruling.

The judicial action likely means the new California map will be in place for the 2026 election. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Democrats, reducing the Republicans to just four of 52 Golden State districts.

Florida: Late last week, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said that the state will redistrict the congressional map and do so during the Spring. The Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, so time remains to complete the redistricting process. It is possible that Republicans could gain two seats from a new map.

Georgia: A new Georgia map has been completed. The legislature made minor changes to the existing plan that will not likely affect the current partisan division (9R-5D).

Indiana: Late last week, the Indiana state Senate defeated a redistricting map that the state House passed. The plan would have converted two Democratic seats to Republican, thus sweeping the nine-member delegation. Unless the Senate reconsiders the action, the current 7R-2D map will remain intact for the 2026 election.

Louisiana: The US Supreme Court is considering the Callais racial gerrymandering case that could become the vehicle for the justices to render a landmark racial gerrymandering decision. A ruling was expected in June, but the justices postponed their opinion and ordered a second round of oral arguments. The subsequent hearing was held Oct. 15, and all await a final determination.

If the court upholds the lower court decision, the current Louisiana map will be invalidated, meaning the Republicans will likely gain one seat. Should this be the Supreme Court’s ultimate decision, then the possibility exists that the Alabama map will also be redrawn because its plan is virtually identical to Louisiana’s.

Maryland: In a situation similar to what is found in Indiana, most of the Maryland Democratic political establishment favors attempting to collapse their one Republican congressional district, but the state Senate leadership refuses to take action. Therefore, unless the Senate President completely reverses himself, a new redistricting map will not be enacted.

Missouri: The Missouri legislature and Governor have enacted a new map that will likely convert the Kansas City anchored 5th CD from Democratic to Republican. Opponents of the map, officially organized under a group name entitled People Not Politicians, have collected double the number of signatures needed to force a special election initiative vote with the goal of repealing the new map. If a ruling is made qualifying the initiative for the ballot, voters will then decide if the new map will stand.

Under Missouri procedure, simply qualifying the initiative will suspend the new map. This means the state would be forced to revert to the 2021 map for the 2026 election. An initiative vote would occur in the regular election cycle. If the voters adopt the new plan, it would take effect in the 2028 election cycle.

North Carolina: The legislature’s new congressional map will almost assuredly stand for the 2026 election. The initial complaint protesting the plan was rejected at the lower court level. The US Supreme Court’s action involving the Texas case suggests that no further judicial movement will occur on the new North Carolina plan before the candidate filing deadline on Dec. 19. Therefore, it is likely that Republicans will gain one seat in the Tar Heel delegation.

Ohio: The bipartisan elected official redistricting commission unanimously agreed upon a new congressional map, one that state law mandated be drawn. Under the Ohio procedure, a unanimous decision from the redistricting panel, which included Gov. Mike DeWine (R), means the map is officially enacted without action from the state legislature. The new plan will likely produce a one seat gain for Republicans in western Ohio, with the outside possibility of a second conversion in Cincinnati.

Texas: As discussed above, the Supreme Court stayed the three-judge panel decision that ruled the new map a racial gerrymander. Candidate filing has concluded, so the new 2025 map will be in place for the 2026 elections. The original map proponents believe the plan will return five more seats for the Republicans.

Utah: A state court ruled that the legislature ignored certain criteria that voters adopted in a previous redistricting initiative. Therefore, the 2021 map was declared invalid, a ruling that the state Supreme Court sustained. The court then adopted a new map that created a Salt Lake City Democratic seat. The new plan will produce a 3R-1D map for the 2026 election, which is a gain of one Democratic seat.

Virginia: The Old Dominion redistricting effort may determine which party wins the national redistricting wars. With the Democrats gaining full control of the state government, the new legislature must pass a referendum for the ballot when they convene in January. The measure will have to fulfill other legal requirements, and a special statewide referendum election is required. Voters would have to approve a new map before the April 2 candidate filing deadline for the June 16 primary election.

Democrats claim they can draw a map that will relegate Republicans to just one seat in the 11-member delegation. Currently, the Virginia congressional districts split 6D-5R. A four-seat swing in this state could tip the balance of power toward the Democrats in their quest for the US House majority.

Special Elections Update

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 4, 2025

Special Elections

With the TN-7 special election now complete, three more contests are pegged for the first quarter of next year. The upcoming special elections will be held in Georgia, New Jersey, and Texas.

TN-7

This week’s Tennessee result saw the 7th District electorate performing as the voting history projected, thus quelling the Democrats’ quest for the upset that certain polls suggested was possible. The 54-44 percent result from what will likely be a touch over 180,000 votes cast when all ballots are counted – a large number for a special congressional election – was equivalent to the Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 55.1R – 42.2D.

Most importantly, from the Republicans’ perspective, the party apparatus proved in this instance, that they could turn out the base vote and a sizable number of the casual Trump voters, meaning those who typically only vote when the President is on the ballot. Repeatedly doing so in future elections will be a critical factor in determining whether the party will have success in the regular midterm elections next year.

GA-14

Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) will resign on Jan. 5. At that point, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will schedule the special election to replace the outgoing Congresswoman in the northwestern district. GA-14 the safest Peach State Republican seat. The district stretches from just outside Marietta to the Tennessee border.

It is believed that Gov. Kemp will calendar the jungle primary for a date in March. Under Georgia special election law, all candidates are on the initial ballot with the top two finishers, irrespective of party affiliation, advancing to the runoff election in the likely event that no contender attracts majority support. To comply with state law, the secondary vote must occur within 28 days of the initial election. Therefore, it is probable that this seat will be filled before the end of April.

A total of 13 Republicans and two Democrats have already announced their candidacies, but the two most talked-about potential candidates, state Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), have yet to formally declare.

It is probable that two Republicans will advance into the special runoff election. Republicans will hold this seat.

NJ-11

Gov.-Elect Mikie Sherrill (D) has resigned her congressional seat, thus leading to Gov. Phil Murphy (D) scheduling a Feb. 5 partisan primary and an April 16 special general election.

Candidate filing has closed, and 13 Democrats will be on the Feb. 5 ballot vying for the party nomination. Within the large group is former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski, ex-Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, and five local officials, with the remainder coming from the private sector or political activist class. Only one Republican filed, Randolph Township Mayor Joe Hathaway, so he is guaranteed to win the party nomination, meaning a ballot slot for the special general election.

The partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App calculations) for this district, which redistricting has made much more Democratic in the previous two decades, is 55.6D – 42.5R. Therefore, it is clear the eventual Democratic nominee will have the inside track toward winning the special election and holding the seat for the party.

TX-18

The longest special election cycle to fill a congressional vacancy will culminate with a Jan. 31 runoff contest between Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards (D). Since this is a double Democratic runoff, there is no doubt that the party will hold the seat for the duration of the current Congress.

Regardless of whether Menefee or Edwards wins the Jan. 31 vote, they will immediately find themselves embroiled in a new campaign against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston). Since it is likely that the new Texas congressional map will be in effect for the 2026 midterm elections, the Houston area sees a major reconfiguration of its congressional districts.

The new plan collapsed most of Rep. Green’s 9th CD into a new 18th District, with much of the current 18th going into Rep. Sylvia Garcia’s (D-Houston) new 29th CD. The regular cycle Texas primary is scheduled for March 3, so the eventual runoff winner and loser will find themselves immediately competing in a new campaign.

The regular term candidate filing deadline is Dec. 8. At this point, neither Menefee nor Edwards have filed for the new term, but both are expected to do so. This means that the loser of the Jan. 31 runoff could conceivably be an active candidate for the March 3 regular primary election, which could force Rep. Green into a runoff with either the new incumbent or the just-defeated runoff participant.

While the special election will end on Jan. 31, the campaign for a full term will already be entering political prime time.

Two New Special Elections

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2025

This is our last update for the week. We’ll take a pause for Thanksgiving and pick up again Monday, Dec. 1. Wishing all a very Happy Thanksgiving!

House

Governors in two states are making moves to calendar elections to fill new congressional vacancies in their states. With Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) resigning her congressional seat to prepare for her swearing in as the Garden State Governor, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) declaring that she will leave Congress on Jan. 5, two more districts will soon host special elections.

Since this Congress began, we have seen four seats filled in special elections; two more are scheduled, the first on Dec. 2 (TN-7) and the other Jan. 31 (TX-18), and now the Georgia-New Jersey pair open.

Three seats became vacant because the incumbent passed away — Reps. Raul Grijalva (AZ), Sylvester Turner (TX), Gerry Connally (VA); one accepted an appointment from President Trump, Rep. Mike Waltz (FL); three resigned for other opportunities, Reps. Matt Gaetz (FL), Greene (GA), Mark Green (TN); and one, Sherrill, won election to a different office.

NJ-11

Rep. Mikie Sherrill being elected New Jersey Governor on Nov. 4 creates a new vacancy in the Garden State congressional delegation. The 11th District lies in the northern part of the state and is reliably Democratic.

Under previous redistricting plans in the early part of the century, the 11th, which now includes parts of three counties, Essex, Morris, and Passaic, and the population centers of Morristown, Parsippany-Troy Hills, and Gov-Elect Sherrill’s hometown of Montclair, was a Republican district.

The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the current NJ-11 shows a 55.6D – 42.5R ratio. Kamala Harris carried the district 53.3 – 44.6 percent. Therefore, the stats show that Gov-Elect Sherrill’s successor will very likely be determined in the special Democratic primary.

Gov. Phil Murphy (D) just announced that the District 11 special partisan primaries will be held on Feb. 5, with the special general scheduled for April 16. Candidates must file right after Thanksgiving, on Dec. 1.

A total of 14 Democrats have announced their candidacies, including former 7th District Congressman Tom Malinowski. In 2022, Malinowski, who saw his district become a touch more Republican in 2021 redistricting largely to make the 11th and now-Sen. Andy Kim’s (D) former 3rd District more Democratic. Then-Rep. Malinowski would lose to current Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) as a result.

Beyond Malinowski, the Democratic field includes former Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way, five local officials from various townships, and former Obama White House aide Cammie Croft. Only one Republican is in the race, Randolph Town Commissioner and Mayor Joe Hathaway.

GA-14

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Rome) surprise resignation means an ensuing special election will be held in northwest Georgia. Reportedly, sources close to Gov. Brian Kemp (R) say he is leaning toward scheduling a March primary.

Under Georgia election law, when special elections are held all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. If a contender receives majority support in the first election, the individual is elected. If no one reaches such a level, the top two finishers, again regardless of political party affiliation, advance to a runoff election within 28 days of the initial vote.

With an overwhelming Republican partisan lean (Dave’s Redistricting App: 69.2R – 28.9D), meaning the 14th District is the safest Georgia Republican congressional district, the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the runoff is relatively high.

A total of six state Senate seats and 17 districts in the state House contain part of the 14th CD. Encompassing all or part of 10 counties, a multitude of Republican state and local officials are likely to enter the congressional campaign.

State Senate Majority Leader Jason Anavitarte (R-Doraville) and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton), who for a time was in this year’s US Senate campaign, are viewed as potentially strong candidates.

The field will form once Rep. Greene resigns after the first of the year and Gov. Kemp officially calls the special election.