Tag Archives: Kentucky

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Senate

Already we’ve seen a great deal of jockeying for political position in 2026 Senate races. Today and tomorrow, we will review the 18 Senate races where significant action is occurring.

This edition looks at the situations in Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, Michigan through Virginia. If a state is not mentioned, it means the incumbent is seeking re-election and, at this early point in the election cycle, has no serious competition.

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will reportedly soon announce that he will eschew a second term in the Senate to enter the open Alabama Governor’s race. Once Tuberville makes his plans official, others will finalize their own plans. Expect a crowded open Republican Senate primary with the winner having the inside track to carrying the seat in the general election.

Florida — Sen. Ashley Moody (R), the former Florida Attorney General who was appointed to replace Sen. Marco Rubio when he resigned to become US Secretary of State, must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026. So far, several people have announced their candidacies, but all should be considered minor candidates in both parties. The biggest name in the field is former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), but his attempts to return to public office after spending three non-consecutive terms in the House have not gone well.

Unless the quality of candidates improves, Sen. Moody should have little trouble retaining her seat. It is probable, however, that credible competition will emerge. At this time, appointed Sen. Moody must be considered a clear favorite to win next year.

Georgia — The Peach State is one of several places where a term-limited or recently retired Governor could run for the Senate. Most of the Governors in this category, however, have their eyes on the Presidency in 2028. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is a state chief executive with rumored presidential aspirations but leads the Senate Democratic incumbent in early polling.

However, yesterday’s announcement that Gov. Kemp will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture, and we will devote a column to that evolving campaign after our Senate Review, Part II is published. With Kemp now not running for Senate, at least four US House members are expressing interest. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Without Kemp in the race, Sen. Ossoff establishes a polling lead against all other potential Republican nominees.

Idaho — Just turning 82 years of age, rumors swirled that three-term Sen. Jim Risch (R) would retire. Recently, however, Risch announced that he will seek a fourth term and appears to be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general election.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring, and the meaningful action will occur in the March 2026 Democratic primary. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), armed with public support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), is an announced candidate. She could, however, face as many as three members of the Illinois congressional delegation in the Democratic primary: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville).

The Illinois primary is scheduled early in the election cycle on March 17, so this race will begin immediately. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a lock to win the general election.

Iowa — The big early winner from Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) decision not to seek a third term could well be Sen. Joni Ernst (R). An open, competitive race for Governor is now likely to capture the attention of those who originally considered challenging the Senator.

Iowa’s only elected Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, appears headed into the Governor’s race and is no longer contemplating challenging Sen. Ernst. Former state legislator Jim Carlin is an announced Republican candidate against Ernst, along with two minor candidates. Nathan Sage, a local Chamber of Commerce executive and former sports announcer is a declared Senate candidate on the Democratic side.

With the Hawkeye State Democrats having a short political bench, expect the credible potential Ernst challengers to head for the Governor’s race.

Kentucky — This is another state where a Governor with presidential aspirations could be a major contender for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not running for an eighth term, but two-term Governor Andy Beshear would give the Democrats a major candidate and is clearly the best choice of any party member to convert the seat. Republican former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are the announced GOP candidates.

If Gov. Beshear runs for the Senate, this becomes a top national Senate battle. If he does not, the eventual Republican nominee will punch his ticket to the Senate.

Louisiana — The Bayou State is one place where a Republican Senator has a bigger challenge winning renomination than re-election. Louisiana has returned to a partisan primary structure, eschewing their jungle nominating system for federal campaigns and some other offices. Therefore, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted in favor of impeaching President Trump as he was leaving office at the end of 2020, will certainly face competition from his political right.

State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), announced his candidacy months ago and will be a major contender. Others, potentially Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) or former Congressman Garret Graves, could also join the Senate campaign. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) stated earlier that he will remain in the House.

Regardless of the eventual mix of Republican candidates, Sen. Cassidy faces a real prospect of being forced into a runoff, which could lead to a renomination defeat. Democrats are attempting to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate, but so far their overtures have not been successful.

Maine — In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the Democrats’ chief national targets, and their candidate, then state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), and allied Super PACs spent records sums of money in a small state.

Polling suggested the Senator would lose, but in the end Collins repelled the massive charge and won by almost nine percentage points.

Sen. Collins announced early in the ’26 cycle that she would run for a sixth term, thus extinguishing retirement rumors. The veteran incumbent will no doubt be a Democratic conversion target again next year, but the fervor to defeat her appears to be less in this cycle.

Democrats hope to recruit term-limited 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills into the Senate race, but so far she has not accepted the challenge. The party will field a credible candidate irrespective of Gov. Mills’ ultimate decision but, in the election cycle’s early phase, Sen. Collins must be rated as at the very least a slight favorite to win re-election and once again overcome Maine’s reliably Democratic voting patterns.

House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Retirement Announcement & Its Implications

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the longest-serving Republican leader in party history, officially announced late last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026.

McConnell’s Background — Sen. McConnell had held a GOP leadership position from the beginning of 2003 until the Senate convened this year. The McConnell retirement decision had been expected, especially with potential successors already oiling their campaign machines anticipating an open US Senate contest.

Sen. McConnell was first elected as a Kentucky Senator in 1984 and, upon completion of his current seventh term, will depart tied with the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as the seventh longest-serving Senator in US history.

After originally unseating then-Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by just 5,269 votes, Sen. McConnell went on to win six more Senate elections averaging 56.6 percent of the vote against serious competition in most of those campaigns. The Senator became a focal point for Democratic money, which propelled opposition candidates into strong positions.

In 1996, Sen. McConnell defeated Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, who would later serve two terms as Governor in his own right. Prior to winning the Senate seat, McConnell was twice elected as the Judge-Executive of Jefferson County.

Sen. McConnell, while not considered a compelling national spokesman for the Republican Party, was clearly one of the most effective Senate Leaders in history. He will be particularly noted for his adroit strategies in confirming a multitude of judges during the George W. Bush and Trump presidencies. Though currently at odds with the President of his own party, Sen. McConnell has cast an indelible mark in Senate history throughout his long career in the chamber.

What are the implications of Sen. McConnell’s retirement? — The internal Republican battle to replace the outgoing Senator has been bubbling beneath the political surface and is already transitioning to public warfare. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell’s public exiting statement. Two weeks ago, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he would run for the Senate should McConnell retire.

Shortly after the Barr declaration, the Club for Growth launched attack ads against the Congressman, obviously in opposition to him for the Senate nomination. Immediately after the McConnell announcement, Rep. Barr hit Cameron as an “embarrassment to President Trump” for losing the 2023 gubernatorial race even when having a Trump endorsement. The Barr forces supported their claim by reiterating that Trump carried Kentucky by 30 percentage points in the November election.

The Democratic leadership will now make a major attempt to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear (D) into the open Senate race. Despite Kentucky being a solid red state in federal races, it is still very competitive, as Beshear has proved, in state contests. The Governor was re-elected in 2023 with 52.5 percent of the vote (over Cameron’s 47.5 percent), after unseating Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in a close 2019 result — 5,136 votes from more than 1.32 million ballots cast.

With the open Kentucky Senate race now officially underway, Blue Grass State Democrats may face the same problem as Georgia Republicans. They both see their own Governor in potentially strong position to compete in, and potentially win, a current Senate race — the Georgia Republican leadership wants Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — but the lure of a potential 2028 presidential candidacy makes both Beshear and Kemp so far hesitant to commit to running in 2026.

The McConnell retirement means there will be at least three open Senate seats in the 2026 election. Within the last three weeks, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that they would not seek re-election.

While the 2026 map favors the Democrats in that they must only defend 13 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 22, they now will be forced to spend heavily to support a pair of open seat nominees in Michigan and Minnesota, states that promise to be hot targets.

Thus, the Democratic leadership will be under greater pressure to put the Kentucky Senate seat in play and realistically recruiting Gov. Beshear is their only chance of seriously challenging the Blue Grass Republicans in November of 2026.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.