Tag Archives: Kentucky

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), probably the President’s top Republican US House nemesis, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. The vote split was 55-45 percent in Gallrein’s favor and capped a victory week for the President.

Trump’s endorsed candidates defeated two of his Republican targets in Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Massie, and the Republicans recorded several redistricting legislative and judicial victories that improves the party’s position of holding their small US House majority.

Alabama

As expected, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries last night. The result precludes a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Tuberville recorded a 60-40 percent victory.

In the Senate race, also as expected, Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. It may take several days to determine the second place finisher.

For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16.

All US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties held open contests to choose their 2026 gubernatorial nominees. In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16 second round.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56 percent against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other US candidate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Dooley edged Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16 runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.

Turning to the Georgia House races, Jim Kingston, son of former Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52 percent victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Kingston of election in November.

In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67 percent against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.

The race to replace retiring 11th District Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. Finishing third in an upset result is Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore who was favored as a runoff participant. The June 16 Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.

In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56 percent of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Clark.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 64 percent victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November.

Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 60 percent of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee.

Kentucky

In addition to the Massie defeat, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican Senate nomination with a solid 60 percent victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.

For the Democrats, former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36 percent victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

In Rep. Barr’s open 6th District, former state Senator and 2019 Lieutenant Governor nominee Ralph Alverado, who left the state to become Tennessee’s State Health Commissioner before returning, won the Republican nomination with 56 percent over four opponents. He will face Democratic winner Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran. This general election campaign could turn competitive, though Alvarado begins the campaign as the November favorite.

The four other congressional incumbents seeking renomination all won easily.

Oregon

All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.

The electorates in three competitive Republican House districts chose their Democratic nominees last night, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination last night. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49 percent victory two years ago scored a 67 percent victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas meaning the November rematch is set.

Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sent a Republican to the US House.

In the 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44 percent of the vote. Rabb will succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) in the general election.

Six States Voting Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 16, 2026

A half‑dozen states are holding their nominating elections today, and several major races will be decided. Runoffs in the top contests are likely in Alabama and Georgia. Nominations will be settled tonight in Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Below, we highlight the notable races in each state.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville is well positioned to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination tonight, while Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) and Attorney General Steve Marshall appear most likely to advance to a Republican Senatorial runoff.

Because of redistricting, only Congressional Districts 3 (Rep. Mike Rogers-R), 4 (Rep. Robert Aderholt-R), and 5 (Rep. Dale Srong-R) hold their primaries today.

The primaries for Disricts 1, Open Seat; 2, Rep. Shomari Figures (D); 6, Rep. Gary Palmer (R); and 7, Rep. Terri Sewell (D); have been postponed to Aug. 11. Districts 3, 4, and 5 saw no boundary changes in the new 2026 map, so there was no reason to delay the primary in those particular domains.

Georgia

Two statewide races will dominate Georgia’s political landscape tonight. With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties are holding open contests to choose their nominees. In the Republican primary, businessman Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones have consistently placed first and second in most polling.

Should the results track those trends, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and Attorney General Chris Carr would be sidelined from advancing. On the Democratic side, the key question is whether former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms can reach the 50 percent threshold needed to secure the nomination outright.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other U.S. candidate. In the Republican primary, it appears likely that Reps. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and Buddy Carter (R‑Pooler/Savannah) will advance ahead of former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley.

Four open seats in Districts 1, 10, 11, and 13 will likely see party runoffs form in each campaign. Among the notable candidates expected to advance are Jim Kingston (R), son of former longtime Congressman Jack Kingston (R), in District 1; and Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore in District 11.

In District 13, the primary results will determine the general‑election matchups ahead of the July 28 special election to replace the late Rep. David Scott (D‑Atlanta). Two leading contenders, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D‑Decatur) and state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn), are opting not to run in the special election.

Idaho

Expect a quiet primary night in Idaho as incumbent Sen. Jim Risch (R) and Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) all appear set for strong general election runs.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, faces eight minor Republican challengers and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into November.

Kentucky

The two major Kentucky contests are the open US Senate race and the Republican primary challenge to seven‑term Rep. Thomas Massie (R‑Garrison), a frequent critic of President Trump.

On the Republican side, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) appears to have made all the right moves in the closing stretch of the campaign to secure the party’s nomination. If such holds true tonight, he would have the inside track to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

For Democrats, the contest is between former state Rep. Charles Booker and 2020 US Senate nominee Amy McGrath. Booker leads in most polling, while McGrath holds the financial advantage.

As President Trump successfully targeted the Indiana state Senators who opposed his redistricting push, as well as Sen. Bill Cassidy (R‑LA), who lost his primary on Saturday, Rep. Massie now becomes his most recent potential political target.

The Congressman’s Republican primary challenger is retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who holds the President’s endorsement. Polling has been competitive, but Gallrein posted a 51–44 percent advantage, outside the survey’s margin of error, in the most recently released poll (Grayhouse; May 16–17; 435 likely KY‑4 Republican primary voters).

Republican officeholders who have opposed President Trump have generally fared poorly in subsequent elections, so tonight will show whether that pattern continues in Rep. Massie’s case.

Oregon

There is little suspense in today’s Oregon primary. Incumbents seeking re-election appear secure in their respective contests. The most notable race is the Republican gubernatorial primary, where 2022 nominee Christine Drazan is viewed as the favorite over state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley.

Whoever wins the GOP nomination will enter the general election as a clear underdog against Gov. Tina Kotek (D), who is seeking a second term.

Pennsylvania

The electorates in three U.S. House races will select Democratic nominees tonight, and all three could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general‑election campaign in this politically competitive district.

Democrats have three strong contenders vying for the nomination tonight: State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates are unopposed in their respective primaries tonight. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. His likely opponent is 2024 nominee Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held him to a 51–49 percent victory two years ago. Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas is challenging her in the Democratic primary, but Stelson is favored.

KY-4: Massie Leading

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 13, 2026

US House

Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY)

It is no secret that Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/ Covington) is President Trump’s top adversary among House Republicans and an officeholder Trump has marked for defeat.

Unseating Rep. Massie, however, is a significant challenge. In his seven US House races, the Congressman has averaged 70.8 percent of the general election vote, and 77.4 percent in the three Republican primaries he has faced since his initial victory in 2012.

The President frequently tweets about Rep. Massie, lambasting him for typically voting with the Democrats on serious budget issues irrespective of the Congressman’s reasoning in using his vote to voice objection to the burgeoning federal budget and its huge deficit.

Massie, along with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), also led the successful discharge petition effort for a vote to release the Epstein files. This act also angered Trump and the GOP leadership, but as Rep. Massie reminded the public, the President during the 2024 campaign agreed to release all of the Epstein related files after the election.

The Trump forces have recruited a Republican primary opponent for Massie after the President publicly called for such a candidate to come forward. Therefore, Trump and his political operatives are attempting to “have their cake and eat it, too,” in striving to unseat Massie while keeping the Blue Grass State’s 4th Congressional District in the Republican column.

The Trump-backed candidate is retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, whose previous venture into elective politics was an unsuccessful 2024 bid for a Kentucky state Senate seat. A recently released survey indicates that the task of defeating the seven-term incumbent who served as the Lewis County Judge-Executive before winning his congressional post still contains a high difficulty factor regardless of what effect comes from the Trump attacks.

Quantus Insights released the results of its new poll testing Rep. Massie’s bid for renomination. According to the QI survey (April 6-7; 438 likely KY-4 Republican primary voters; live interview), the incumbent would lead Gallrein by a 47-38 percent clip as the candidates move toward the May 19 Kentucky Republican primary election.

In terms of the personal favorability question, the GOP electorate splits with 51 percent responding they have a positive opinion of the Congressman while 46 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion. Even though he is less well known, Gallrein still posts a lesser positive response than the Congressman. The Gallrein favorability index was only 40:38 positive to negative within the Republican sampling universe.

Gallrein does get a boost from possessing the Trump endorsement, however. Here, we see 38 percent saying they are much more or somewhat more likely to vote for a candidate who the President endorses while 26 percent said they are much less or somewhat less likely to support the Trump-endorsed candidate.

The Quantus poll also tested for voting propensity. The pollsters divided the Republican electorate into segments of respondents who voted in the last four consecutive elections, the last three, the last two, the last one, and none of the previous elections.

In this instance, Gallrein tends to benefit because those voters casting ballots in the last four consecutive elections favor him by a 45-35 percent margin. Rep. Massie performs better with each of the other voting groups, and exceeds majority support within two segments, but the individuals’ vote propensity ranges from participating in most elections to not voting at all.

We can expect a very active final five weeks of the campaign cycle with the challenger needing to make bold moves to overtake the Congressman. While the President is “all-in” trying to defeat Rep. Massie, this poll and the incumbent’s strong voter history performance suggests that the Congressman still maintains significant strength within the district’s Republican voting base and remains the current favorite for renomination.

Kentucky Race Taking Shape

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 10, 2026

Senate

For months, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) enjoyed a commanding lead in campaign resources over his principal opponent, former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, but not a polling advantage. The situation has now changed.

While Rep. Barr undoubtedly still has more money in his campaign account than does Cameron, he now is forging ahead in polling, too. According to the latest Emerson College survey, conducted for Nexstar and WDKY-TV in Lexington (March 29-31; 400 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques), Rep. Barr now leads Cameron and businessman Nate Morris by a 28-21-15 percent margin.

While Rep. Barr had placed first in two previous surveys after routinely trailing, both spreads were well within the polling margin of error meaning he was virtually tied with Cameron. The new Emerson College survey is the first publicly released poll to find Rep. Barr inconclusively leading the open Blue Grass State US Senate Republican primary.

According to the Federal Election Commission year-end 2025 filing, Rep. Barr had raised over $6.5 million as compared to Cameron’s $1.6 million. A total of $1.44 million of Barr’s funding came as a transfer from his US House campaign committee. As filing closed at the end of December, Barr reported almost $6.5 million cash-on-hand, while Cameron declared only $630,016 remaining in his campaign account, meaning a 10:1 Barr advantage.

Though no candidate has yet to announce how much their campaigns have raised in the 1st Quarter 2026 (the filing deadline is April 15), it is presumed that the Barr financial lead will have grown larger even though he has been spending a portion of his financial advantage to become better known to Republican primary voters beyond his 6th Congressional District constituency.

The wild card in the race is Morris. A wealthy business owner, Morris has been advertising for months. He is running against the Republican establishment, and repeatedly trashes retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell. Others, even in Republican primaries, have similarly attacked McConnell, but none were running in Kentucky.

The Morris angle of going after McConnell and tying his opponents to the former Senate Majority Leader is a questionable one when campaigning before a Republican electorate that has routinely strongly supported the seven-term incumbent since he first ran for the Senate in 1984.

Morris has already put $5 million of his own money into his statewide campaign, and Elon Musk is reportedly donating $10 million to a Super PAC supporting Morris’ effort. Therefore, he is a serious third candidate but one who still lags considerably behind the two front runners.

While we are still weeks away from the May 19 primary election, the seeds are set for a Barr victory in the plurality Republican primary, meaning beginning the general election cycle with a clear advantage.

Emerson also tested the Democratic side as part of their March 29-31 statewide poll, surveying 549 likely Democratic primary voters. Here we see former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker topping former US Senate and ex-congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, by a 2:1 clip, translating into a 36-18 percent advantage.

McGrath, a proven strong fundraiser, opposed both Sen. McConnell and Rep. Barr in previous elections and fared poorly despite being at parity with her stronger Republican opponents in campaign resources. Regardless of who comes through the Democratic primary, the general election will prove a major obstacle for the individual irrespective of funding, the political climate’s status at the time of the general election, and trends that might be developing in other states.

At this point, it appears Rep. Barr is now in the best position to win the open GOP Senate nomination and carry that momentum through toward winning the general election.

Senate: Open Race Recap

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 27

Senate

Below is a status update of the 11 open US Senate races that will go a long way toward determining which party controls the chamber in the next Congress:

Alabama: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), after receiving the Trump endorsement and now Majority Leader John Thune’s backing, has pulled ahead of state Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) in polling and fundraising. Marshall is Rep. Moore’s principal Republican opponent. Still, Moore winning the party nomination outright in a field of six candidates is a tall order.

The Alabama primary is May 19. If no candidate receives majority support, the top two finishers advance to a June 16 runoff election. The eventual Republican nominee wins the seat in November.

Illinois: With her victory in the March 17 open Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has punched her ticket to the Senate. She will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) in the next Congress with an easy general election victory.

Iowa: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) is the consensus Republican nominee and will open the general election as the favorite to carry the state in November. The Democrats feature a tightly contested primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). The VoteVets group just announced they will spend $825,000 in an independent expenditure for Turek. The Iowa primary is June 2.

Kentucky: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are locked in a very tight race with businessman Nate Morris a distant third. Rep. Barr, however, had a 10:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Cameron at the end of 2025. Democrats have a crowded primary with former state Representative and ex-US Senate candidate Charles Booker taking an early lead.

The Kentucky plurality primary is May 19. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Michigan: An intense Democratic primary is underway among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed. Polling and fundraising are relatively even, though Rep. Stevens has the resource edge.

This primary won’t be decided until Aug. 4, which is a boon to GOP candidate Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of winning the 2024 Senate race. This contest will be in toss-up mode all the way to election day.

Minnesota: While Democrats feature a primary battle between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), Republicans have a consensus candidate in former national sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya. This race has the underpinnings of evolving into a surprisingly competitive general election even though Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state.

A tough and late Democratic primary (Aug. 11), unrest within the state, and Republicans united behind a strong candidate makes this contest more interesting than one would have expected after Sen. Tina Smith (D) announced her retirement.

Montana: The surprise withdrawal of Sen. Steve Daines (R) just before the candidate filing deadline expired and basically handing the party nomination to his chosen successor, former US Attorney Kurt Alme, will likely work even though the move does not sit well with most Montanans. At this point, Alme must be rated as the favorite to win the seat. Democrats have a five-way primary and former state Rep. Reilly Neill is considered the favorite to win the party nomination.

The most formidable non-Republican contender is likely former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar who is running as an Independent. The Montana primary is June 2, so it remains to be seen how a three-way general election race will evolve once both major parties have nominees in place.

New Hampshire: Democrats have a consensus candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the person of Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester). A new St. Anselm’s College Poll finds the Congressman leading former Sen. John E. Sununu (R) by only a 46-43 percent margin in the Senate general election ballot test.

Sununu, who served in the Senate from 2003-2009, is the clear favorite in the Republican primary opposite former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who challenged Sen. Shaheen in 2014.

North Carolina: Nominees are already set in the Tar Heel Senate race, as both former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and ex-Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley each won their respective primaries outright in the March 3 primary election.

Cooper, who has won six statewide North Carolina races (two as Governor and four for Attorney General), may be in the best position of any Democratic Senate candidate to flip a Republican seat. Expect this race to end in a close finish as do most North Carolina political campaigns.

Oklahoma: With no serious opposition mounting in the Republican primary against Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who is quickly becoming a consensus GOP candidate in one of the strongest Republican states, the party does not have to worry about keeping Oklahoma in the red column.

Former Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) was just confirmed as US Homeland Security Secretary. Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong (R) to replace Sen. Mullin until the regular election cycle is complete. Because the Mullin seat is in-cycle, a special and regular election for the full six-year term will be held concurrently.

Wyoming: Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) deciding not to seek a second six-year term has opened the door for at-large Rep. Harriet Hageman (R-Cheyenne) to become her successor. Expect Rep. Hageman to easily win both the Republican primary and the general election with the state’s other major political figures either running for the open Governor’s position or Hageman’s open congressional seat.

Kentucky Senate: A GOP Toss-Up

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 20, 2026

Senate

A newly released Public Opinion Strategies survey confirms that Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron are evolving into a toss-up Republican primary battle, which is the first step toward succeeding retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

Businessman Nate Morris is the third significant GOP Senatorial candidate, though nine additional Republicans will be on the ballot. Morris has injected more than $5 million of his own money into his Senate campaign and is positioned to benefit from a $10 million Super PAC that Elon Musk supported. Still, he significantly trails Cameron and Barr.

The POS survey finds the former Attorney General retaking the lead at 31-29 percent over Rep. Barr, meaning a virtual tie, while Morris, who has advertised heavily, trails with a 13 percent support figure.

Two polls from last month found Rep. Barr, who has a huge resource advantage over Cameron, claiming the first position.

A Feb. 4 online Quantus Insights study of 870 likely Republican primary voters saw a virtual tie at the top – Barr leading 28-27 percent – with Morris pulling 17 percent. The Emerson College Kentucky Senate poll (Jan. 31-Feb. 2; 523 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) likewise found a similar result, 24-21-14 percent, with Barr leading Cameron and Morris in said order.

Therefore, at this point, two months before the May 19 primary election, we see an evolving close finish with Barr having a slight edge.

One place where the Congressman has a clear advantage relates to fundraising and campaign resources. New reports will be made public in a month, but the year-end 2025 totals found Mr. Barr holding at that time $6.5 million in his campaign account versus just $630,000+ for Mr. Cameron.

Mr. Morris has also raised or self-funded more than $6 million, but he had spent three-quarters of his resources before the end of 2025. He reported $1.4 million in the bank at that time, so he too is considerably behind Rep. Barr in terms of reserved campaign dollars. Morris could loan further money to the race, but the question remains as to how far he will tap his personal assets to compete in this Senate campaign.

Since only 25 percent of the Morris campaign assets come from others, it is likely that he will have to further rely upon himself to promote his campaign effort. He will be receiving major support from the substantial unconnected Super PAC that Musk supports, but obviously the Morris campaign cannot control or influence the entity’s messaging strategy.

The Democrats are clearly in the underdog position in this race, and have been since Gov. Andy Beshear, who could have put the open Senate race in play, opted to prepare a run for President.

Four of the seven filed Democratic candidates are competitive for the nomination. Former US Senate and congressional nominee Amy McGrath, a retired Marine Corps officer, is a strong fundraiser, but she fared poorly in a 2018 congressional campaign against Rep. Barr and in a challenge opposite Sen. McConnell two years later.

State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson (D-Louisville), former state Representative and 2020 and 2022 US Senate candidate Charles Booker, and thoroughbred horse trainer Dale Romans also have a chance to claim the party nomination.

Post-primary, the eventual Republican nominee will be rated as the favorite to win the general election and succeed Sen. McConnell, the former Majority Leader, who will leave the body next year after serving what will have been 42 years in office.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

Senate

The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers and today we begin to preview the resource standing of the key 2026 statewide contests. This Update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, we’ll look at Michigan through Texas.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for Governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders.

Hudson has $357,000 cash-on-hand, while Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

Florida

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash-on-hand.

The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy last week; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account.

Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state Attorney General. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.

Georgia

First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser, having raised more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account.

The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary, which will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.

Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Dooley, $1.7 million.

The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.

Illinois

Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next Senator.

At this point, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank.

His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash-on-hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.

Kentucky

Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor.

Three candidates are vying for the nomination: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. Norris has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr.

While Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Cameron has just under $630,000. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the Sept. 30 disclosure deadline.

Louisiana

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) last week announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.

At the end of last week, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run, as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are State Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff and ex-Congressman John Fleming; state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia); and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican Senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 US Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members — Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate.

In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash-on-hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank.

Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy last week. Like several others in this report, the Governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report.

Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.

Challenging Kentucky Rep. Massie

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025

House

Congressman Thomas Massie (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) has made a name for himself as the House member most likely to oppose his own party. While self-described as a conservative budget hawk, Rep. Massie has angered the party leadership and President Trump on several occasions, the most recent being his opposition to the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

While saying he is a “constitutional conservative,” Massie has also caused Republican leaders to bristle at his consistent opposition to Republican budget. Furthermore, he is now teaming up with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) to file a disclosure petition to force a floor vote pertaining to releasing the Epstein files.

The Congressman’s antics have spurred President Trump to publicly call for a Republican to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie in the party primary.

A report surfacing in The Down Ballot political blog states that Kentucky GOP leaders are now attempting to convince former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron to abandon his US Senate race and instead challenge Rep. Massie in the May 2026 Kentucky GOP primary.

Cameron shot down the story as “fake news,” but such is often the case with potential candidates before they eventually make a race to which they originally rejected. That’s not to say, however, that Cameron has a long-term plan to switch campaigns. The former AG points out that he is leading in US Senate polls, thus rhetorically questioning why he would leave that campaign.

While the latest published US Senate Republican primary survey did find Cameron leading Congressman Andy Barr (R-Lexington), 37-29 percent (Public Opinion Strategies, Sept. 2-4; 600 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview), his margin is down from the 44-18 percent lead he posted in an April McLaughlin & Associates poll (April 13-15; 500 likely Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview).

Additionally, Cameron is way behind in campaign resources. According to the June 30 Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure report, Rep. Barr possessed $6.1 million in the Cash-on-Hand category while Cameron’s campaign account had only $532,000. Therefore, the campaign momentum is shifting in Rep. Barr’s favor.

Looking at the complete picture, it would not be surprising to see Cameron look for other options since Rep. Barr soon taking the lead in their primary campaign appears likely.

Despite President Trump asking for potential Republican candidates to come forward to challenge Rep. Massie, no major contender has yet entered the race. Freshman state Sen. Aaron Reed (R-Shelbyville) had been mentioned as a possibility, but no candidacy has yet materialized. Same for state Rep. Kim Moser (R-Independence).

Yet, even if Cameron were to enter the congressional race, Rep. Massie is not an easy mark, even if an eventual challenger has the Trump endorsement.

Thomas Massie was first elected to the House in 2012, after winning the Lewis County Judge-Executive position in 2010. Lewis County is a small (just over 13,000 population) rural domain on the Ohio border in Kentucky’s northeastern region. In his initial local election, Massie defeated an incumbent in the GOP primary. Moving to his first congressional race two years later, Massie became the first person to win the 4th District hailing from eastern Kentucky in 45 years.

The Congressman is also a popular figure back home, even while being unpopular in Washington. In his seven congressional elections, Rep. Massie has averaged 70.7 percent of the vote including running unopposed in 2024. He has been challenged as an incumbent in three Republican primaries and averaged 77.4 percent of the vote in those elections.

In preparation for a potential primary challenge, Rep. Massie jumped out to a fast start. Since the beginning of the year, he has raised over $1 million and reports $1.7 million cash-on-hand. This figure is more than three times what Mr. Cameron has in his statewide account, for example.

Therefore, while Massie may be President Trump’s top GOP prospect for replacement, the early prognostication favors the intransigent incumbent to win yet again.

Kentucky Senate: Off to a Nasty Start

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 11, 2025

Senate

Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent himself.

Though Sen. McConnell will be exiting Congress after what will be 42 years of legislative service, he is still a focal point in Kentucky politics. No stranger to being attacked, Sen. McConnell in this race appears to be the subject of “friendly” fire, considering that the assault vehicle is a Republican primary ad.

Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

Since Morris has the financial wherewithal to communicate his message, it appears the Kentucky Republican Senate primary will have a nasty tone. The ad attempts to depict the refuse removal businessman as the only pro-Trump candidate in the field, and that both Rep. Barr and Cameron, should they be elected, will “trash” President Trump, just as McConnell has done, according to the Morris ad verbiage.

If Morris plans to continue this line of attack, and it’s obvious that he will, it will be a tough sell. To claim that Rep. Barr and former AG Cameron are not Trump supporters is quite a leap. Barr was the first Kentucky US House member to endorse Trump for the 2024 campaign and then became chairman of the Trump Kentucky campaign effort. Cameron was an early Trump-endorsed candidate when he ran for Governor in 2023.

The Kentucky Senate seat is one of seven that will run in an open context next year. Six of the departing members, Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are, like Sen. McConnell, retiring from politics. Another, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), is leaving the Senate to run for Governor.

At the outset, the Kentucky race appears to be in the safe Republican column. That designation would change sharply if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear were to enter the race. At this point, however, it appears Gov. Beshear has his sights set on a national run for President and is not considered a potential Senate candidate.

Democratic leaders are desperate to change Gov. Beshear’s mind because, if he were to reverse course, the Kentucky race would then become a toss-up for the general election. Keep in mind that the person Gov. Beshear defeated for re-election in 2023 (52.5 – 47.5 percent) was Cameron.

Therefore, should the former Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee again win the statewide party nomination, Beshear would have a very strong chance of winning the race and flipping the seat to the Democrats.

Should Rep. Barr face Gov. Beshear, the contest would become hard fought and very expensive with an ending difficult to predict.

The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 19, and this Senate race promises to dominate the political coverage in the weeks before the vote especially if this early advertising theme is a preview of things to come.

Senate: Early Open Seat Observations

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Senate

Senator and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville

It appears that Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will announce his campaign for Governor at some point this week.

Tuberville’s doing so will make the Alabama seat the sixth open Senate race for the 2026 election cycle, joining Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire.

Sen. Tuberville’s move toward the Governor’s contest looks ever more secure since Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth (R) announced late last week that he will not run. Earlier this month, his statements led observers to believe that he would be the only Republican willing to challenge the Senator in the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Previously, Ainsworth reiterated that he would not run for the Senate, making it clear that his eyes were on the Governorship. Therefore, his announcement of not running for Governor is quite surprising but likely a testament to Tuberville’s strength within the Republican base.

In the open Senate race, we can expect to see a crowded Republican field, but possibly only one major candidate on the Democratic side. While a Republican House member may or may not jump into the Senate skirmish, several state officials are likely to do so.

For the Democrats, former US Senator Doug Jones, who Sen. Tuberville unseated in 2020 with a 60-40 percent victory margin, is indicating that he is considering either entering the Senate or Governor’s race next year. With Tuberville headed to the Governor’s campaign, it is probable that Jones, if he decides to again run for office, will attempt to regain his Senate seat since that race will be open.

Three of the open Senate seats are already stabilizing. At the outset, the races in Illinois and Minnesota appear similar. Here, we see Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Tina Smith (D-MN) retiring, leaving hotly contested Democratic primaries in their wake. Republicans, on the other hand, don’t see a major candidate surfacing right now in either campaign.

The Illinois Democratic primary will be decided on March 17. The contest features two US House members, Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) and Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

The Lieutenant Governor won endorsements from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and the state’s junior Senator, Tammy Duckworth (D). Yet, Stratton and Rep. Kelly largely share the same major constituency, the Black community, and even hail from similar locations in the Chicago area. Therefore, the two have a high probability of splitting the same vote pool. Rep. Krishnamoorthi had almost $20 million in his campaign account at the end of the first quarter and may have better potential to attract downstate votes. In any event, this will be an interesting early race.

In Minnesota, with former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen already dropping out of the Democratic race, the contest, likely to be decided in an August primary, is already evolving into a close two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) retiring after seven terms will leave this seat with a new occupant for the first time since 1985. Republicans are headed to a May primary battle between former Attorney General and 2023 GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

The big unanswered question, however, is whether Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) will enter the race. He has won two statewide campaigns, including defeating Cameron in the 2023 general election. If the Governor runs for Senate, the open race becomes very much in play. Should he only focus on running for President in 2028, the eventual GOP nominee should have an easy walk in the general election.

The New Hampshire Senate race is already evolving into a general election contest even before state legislators decide if they will move the September primary to an earlier date.

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) is quickly uniting the Democratic Party behind his candidacy and looks to become a consensus candidate. He will have the advantage in November likely over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), who is moving toward again locking down the GOP nomination. In 2014, he held Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) to a 51-48 percent re-election victory.

Finally, the Michigan race looks to be the one toss-up open Senate race. Republican former Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers returns for another shot but may have to win a Republican primary against Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland).

The Wolverine States Democrats are for sure headed to a contested primary. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) are already in the race, while term-limited Attorney General Dana Nessel may soon join the field. The 2024 general election was decided by just 19,006 votes, and it would not be surprising to see a similar result occur in 2026.