Tag Archives: Mark Walker

Could Boebert Succeed Buck? Candidates Settle in MT-2;
No Runoff in NC-6; Baseball Owner Leads in Ohio Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 15, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Clarifying the Situation — Several reports are circulating around the internet suggesting that Colorado US Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is ineligible to run in the special election to replace now resigning Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor). Such a statement is incorrect. Boebert weeks ago announced that she would seek Buck’s open 4th District, thus bypassing running in a tough re-election campaign in her own 3rd CD. Therefore, the legal eligibility is no different for a special election. Should she run in and win the special, she would then have to resign her 3rd District seat, thus likely requiring another special election to fill that vacancy.

Practically speaking, however, it is unlikely that Boebert will run in the special election, because a 4th District party leadership committee is unlikely to choose her. Under Colorado law, the political parties select the nominees to fill vacancies, meaning there is just one election for voters to pick the replacement. Gov. Jared Polis (D) has already said he will schedule the special election concurrently with the June 25 state primary.

Also, since the special and the regular primary is on the same day, there will be no incumbency advantage for the regular term. Should a different person win the special and regular primary, the two would not face each other. If the special election winner failed to win the regular primary, that individual would only serve the balance of the term and not appear on the general election ballot. Certainly, the Buck resignation has changed the District 4 political dynamics, but it does not particularly affect Rep. Boebert more adversely than any of the other candidates.

MT-2: Candidates File — Considering Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) indecision about whether he would run for the House, Senate, or for no office, the large Republican field of potential candidates interested in running for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District were in a state of flux. Now that we know the seat will be open for the 2024 election and candidate filing has closed, we see nine contenders for the post. Three current or former statewide officeholders are in the GOP field: State Auditor Troy Downing, Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and former at-large Congressman Denny Rehberg.

Also, in the Republican race are state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), ex-state senators Ric Holden and Ed Walker, former state Rep. Joel Krautter, pharmacist Kyle Austin, and retired DEA agent Stacy Zinn. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the MT-2 seat R+30, and former President Donald Trump posted a 62-35 percent victory here in 2020. Therefore, the June 4 Republican plurality primary winner becomes the prohibitive favorite for the general election.

NC-6: Walker Won’t Force Runoff; McDowell Unofficially Wins Seat — Former Congressman Mark Walker, who finished second to lobbyist and former congressional aide Addison McDowell in the March 5 Republican primary announced Wednesday that he will not pursue his entitled runoff election. In North Carolina, a candidate must receive 30 percent of the vote to win a nomination outright. In this election, McDowell posted 26 percent of the vote, and Walker 24 percent.

Instead of continuing his congressional campaign, Walker announced that he has accepted former President Trump’s offer to become the national campaign’s Director of Outreach for Faith and Minority Communities.

The move means that McDowell, who Trump endorsed in the Republican primary, wins the congressional seat. Post-2023 redistricting, Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) decided not to seek re-election because she saw no path for victory. The Democrats then didn’t even file a candidate. It is still possible, however, for an Independent or minor party candidate to file. Their deadline is May 5. Even if one or more should run, McDowell’s general election victory is virtually assured. Therefore, North Carolina’s 6th District becomes the Republicans’ first unofficial conversion victory for the 2024 regular election cycle.

Senate

Ohio: Dolan Takes Lead in New Poll — Emerson College polled the tight Ohio Senate primary (March 7-10; 443 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and finds a change on the leader board. For the first time in any survey, state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls), a minority owner of the Cleveland Guardians professional baseball club, has taken the Republican primary lead. According to the Emerson findings, Sen. Dolan posts a 26-23-16 percent edge over businessman Bernie Moreno and Secretary of State Frank LaRose, respectively.

Also, this week Gov. Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Sen. Dolan, which may counter to a degree former President Trump’s endorsement of Moreno. In the 2022 Senate race, Sen. Dolan came on strong at the end and fell just one point short of finishing second. In this race, which will be decided in the Ohio plurality primary on Tuesday, he again appears to be finishing the campaign with momentum. Tuesday’s winner will then face Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in one of the most important 2024 national Senate races.

Sen. Tim Scott Out; Primary Rematch Announced in Rep. Omar’s District; Candidate Again Switches Districts; Two Texas Reps Out; Spanberger to Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2023

President

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC)

Sen. Tim Scott: Suspends Campaign — South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott announced that he is suspending his 2024 presidential campaign, effectively ending his effort to secure an upset win for the Republican presidential nomination. In late October, Sen. Scott’s campaign principals announced they were turning the strategic focus toward the Iowa Caucuses, but the decision did not result in any appreciable gain in support. This, and barely qualifying for his last debate, led the Palmetto State lawmaker to leave the race. He follows former Vice President Mike Pence and ex-US Rep. Will Hurd in exiting the campaign.

The Republican presidential campaign now actively features former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in the top tier of candidates. Long shots Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson also remain in the race.

House

MN-5: Dem Primary Rematch Announced — Former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who held controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) to a 50.3 – 48.2 percent renomination victory in the 2022 Democratic primary, has officially announced that he will return for a rematch next year. Two other candidates previously announced, so it remains to be seen if they will continue their campaigns or if they will give Samuels a clear path toward challenging Rep. Omar.

Sarah Gad, an attorney who previously ran for office in Illinois, and businessman Tim Peterson are the announced Democratic candidates. Neither had raised even $55,000 through the Sept. 30 campaign finance reporting deadline. Considering Rep. Omar’s outspoken position regarding the war in Israel, we can expect that particular issue to play a major role in the 2024 campaign. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 13, 2024.

NC-6: Candidate Hines Again Switches Districts — Republican Bo Hines, who many observers say proved himself a weak candidate when he lost the politically marginal 13th District to now-Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in 2022, has again switched districts. Before losing the 13th District race last November, he originally declared to run in a western North Carolina district. Earlier this year, Hines announced a re-match effort against Rep. Nickel. Now, post-redistricting Round II, he is switching yet again. This time, he will run in the new 6th District against Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro).

Redistricting appears to have made NC-6 the most vulnerable district in the House Democratic Conference, so Republican chances of converting this seat are strong. Hines, however, must face former Congressman Mark Walker in the Republican primary. After the districts were passed into law, Walker abandoned his long-shot gubernatorial campaign and now becomes a clear favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new 6th, which closely resembles the district he represented for three terms.

TX-4 & 26: Two Texas Reps Won’t Seek Re-Election — As candidate filing deadlines begin to approach in the early primary states, we are seeing 2024 electoral decisions being made. Two more members of the Texas US House delegation announced that they will not run for re-election next year. Veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point), in a 26th District that covers three-quarters of Denton County, all of Cooke and two-thirds of Wise County in North Texas, announced that he will not seek an 11th term in the House. Rep. Pat Fallon (R-Frisco), in a more surprising move since he was elected to Congress just three years ago, is opting to run for the state Senate seat that he left to originally run for Congress.

Both Texas seats are safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-4 as R+31, while TX-26 is rated R+26. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the 4th and 26th as the 159th and 127th most vulnerable seats, respectively, in the Republican Conference.

VA-7: Rep. Spanberger to Run for Governor — Three-term US Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen) announced that she will run for governor of Virginia in 2025. The move means she will not seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R), under Virginia’s unique one-term limit law for its state chief executives, is ineligible to seek re-election. Therefore, the position will again be open for the 2025 election. Rep. Spanberger reports more than $1.4 million cash-on-hand in her congressional committee, all of which is transferable to a Virginia state campaign.

Without Spanberger seeking re-election, the 7th District becomes highly competitive in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+2. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates 51.1D – 47.2R partisan lean. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks VA-7 as the 17th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

RFK Jr.’s Equal Impact; Casey Maintains Lead in PA; Blake Masters Enters Open Arizona Race; Redistricting Map Struck Down in Georgia; Sarbanes to Retire; North Carolina News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 30, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr.: Equal Impact Effect — Before Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his Independent candidacy, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were generally at parity in national polling, with either contender clinging to a small lead or being deadlocked. We see two new national surveys adding Kennedy to their questionnaire, yet the leader still records the same type of close margins. Dr. Cornel West is included in some polls as another Independent candidate, but it is doubtful that he can qualify for enough state ballots to become a viable factor.

The HarrisX poll (Oct. 16-23; 3,029 US registered voters; online) sees Trump leading Biden and Kennedy, 40-38-18 percent. In what is now an unrealistic head-to-head pairing between Trump and Biden, Trump’s edge is four percentage points.

Suffolk University (Oct. 17-20; 1,000 US registered voters; live interview) sees a similar Biden-Trump-Kennedy 38-37-14 percent split. If the two major party candidates were only running against each other, the Suffolk data finds a 43-41 percent division in President Biden’s favor. Again, with such small margins that don’t greatly change, it appears that Kennedy may be pulling almost equally from both major party candidates.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Maintains Lead — Franklin & Marshall College again surveyed the Keystone State electorate (Oct. 11-22; 873 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) as they do several times per year, and while this particular sampling period is long the US Senate ballot test results are consistent with other previously published surveys. According to the F&M data, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has a 46-39 percent advantage over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Sen. Casey runs four points ahead of President Biden within the same sampling universe, while McCormick’s support percentage is three points below that of former President Trump.

House

AZ-8: Blake Masters Enters Open Race — As expected when this seat opened, 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters announced that he will run for the 8th District seat in the 2024 election. Also in the race is Abe Hamadeh, the Republican attorney general nominee who lost the 2022 statewide race by less than 300 votes. Retiring US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria), has already endorsed state House Speaker Ben Toma (R-Paradise), but Toma has yet to announce his congressional candidacy.

Masters’ chances of coming through a crowded primary with plurality support are good. The eventual Republican will be a heavy favorite in the general election. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates AZ-8 as R+22. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 77th most vulnerable district in the Republican Conference.

Georgia: Federal Judge Strikes Down Congressional Map — In a developing story, a federal judge has struck down the Georgia congressional map as a racial gerrymander. The main district in question is Rep. Rich McCormick’s (R-Suwanee) 6th CD. It remains to be seen what steps the state takes. The judge is giving the lawmakers until Dec. 8 to redraw the map.

MD-3: Rep. John Sarbanes (D) to Retire — Nine-term Maryland US Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore) announced late last week that he will retire from the House after this current Congress ends. In a statement, Sarbanes said, “ … before coming to Congress, I also found great reward in working with nonprofits, volunteering and otherwise contributing to my community. That too is a powerful form of public service. For some time now, I have found myself drawn back to that kind of work — wanting to explore the many opportunities to serve that exist outside of elected office. With that in mind, I have decided not to seek re-election in 2024.”

Sarbanes’ departure will ignite a major Democratic primary for the open seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+14. President Biden carried the district with a 62-36 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks MD-3 as the 79th most vulnerable district in the Democratic Conference. In a presidential election year, this race will be decided in what promises to be a crowded Democratic primary.

NC-14: Rep. Jackson (D) to Run for Attorney General — As expected, Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte), saying a Democrat cannot win the newly drawn 14th District, announced that he will not seek re-election and instead is now a candidate for the open attorney general’s position. In a video showing him as a boxer giving and taking punches, Jackson said he is targeting corrupt politicians, big corporations, and organized crime in his run for the top law enforcement job in the Tar Heel State.

As in the nine other Republican districts on the new congressional map, the new 14th that begins in Charlotte and moves west to encompass all or parts of five other counties, will likely elect the GOP nominee. All indications point to state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) as Rep. Jackson’s eventual successor.

North Carolina: Redistricting Passes into Law; Ex-Rep. Walker Will Run — Both the North Carolina House and Senate passed the new congressional and state legislative maps, thus enacting them into law as Gov. Roy Cooper (D) has no veto authority over redistricting legislation. The map favors Republicans in 10 of the state’s 14 districts.

In Rep. Kathy Manning’s (D-Greensboro) new 6th District, which voted for Donald Trump by a 57-41 percent split according to the Daily Kos Elections statisticians, former US representative and 2022 US Senate candidate Mark Walker (R) announced that he will leave the governor’s race and instead run for this new district. For three terms, Walker represented a similar 6th District. He chose not to run in 2020 after a court-drawn map made NC-6 a heavily Democratic seat that Manning was able to claim.

Brown Becoming Leading Senate GOP Candidate in Nevada; Redistricting Activist Challenges in Michigan; Kuster Stands Pat; Competition in NY-16; NC Gubernatorial Race Update

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 24, 2023

Senate

Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R)

Nevada: Brown Becoming GOP Candidate of Choice — Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R), disfigured through his war injuries, is becoming the leading Nevada Republican US Senate candidate just since his official announcement on July 10.

According to published reports, he is already the leading fundraiser in the Republican field and has the endorsement of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT), the Americans for Prosperity organization, and individual senators such as Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). The eventual Republican nominee will oppose first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in the general election. For Republicans to gain the Senate majority, the Nevada seat must become a prime target.

House

MI-4: Redistricting Activist to Challenge Rep. Huizenga — Attorney Jessica Swartz (D), who was one of the prime movers behind the successful ballot initiative to convert the Michigan redistricting system to a citizens’ commission, announced that she will challenge US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) next year.

Originally, Rep. Huizenga appeared to be the odd man out as national reapportionment cost Michigan a congressional seat. The map led to he and veteran Rep. Fred Upton (R) being paired in the new southwestern Michigan’s 4th CD. However, with Rep. Upton opting for retirement after serving 36 years in the House, that ultimately left the seat to Huizenga, who was re-elected with a 54-42 percent victory percentage last November even though he had not previously represented 75 percent of the new constituency. Expect this race to draw some national attention in 2024.

NH-2: Rep. Kuster Staying Put — Saying that Democrats already have “two great candidates,” US Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) said late last week that she would not enter the open governor’s race now that four-term incumbent Chris Sununu (R) has announced his retirement. It is presumed that Rep. Kuster will seek re-election to a seventh term in the House.

In her comments, Rep. Kuster was referring to Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington who are declared Democratic gubernatorial candidates. Republican former state Senate President Chuck Morse immediately announced his candidacy when Gov. Sununu made his retirement plans public. Ex-US Sen. Kelly Ayotte may also soon join the open Republican primary.

NY-16: Potential Tougher Challenger for Rep. Bowman — Last year, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-Yonkers) turned back two Democratic primary challengers by a 54-25-19 percent margin in what proved to be a moderately competitive campaign. This cycle, his competition may be more formidable.

Westchester County Executive George Latimer (D), who defeated a Republican incumbent in 2017 and then won a 62-38 percent re-election campaign, confirms that he is considering challenging Rep. Bowman. Prior to his election to local office, Latimer served in both the New York Assembly and state Senate. Westchester County, the population of which is just short of 1 million residents, dominates the 16th CD. A total of 91 percent of the district lies in this one county, with the remaining territory crossing into the Bronx borough.

Governor

North Carolina: New Candidate Emerges — Former state Sen. Andy Wells announced late last week that he will enter the Republican gubernatorial primary. This sets up a re-match of sorts with Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. The two ran against each other in the 2020 lieutenant governor’s primary, a political battle that Robinson won by almost a 2:1 ratio. Also in the race is former Congressman Mark Walker. Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro at this point is unopposed but may have opposition from former state Supreme Court justice Mike Morgan. The 2024 governor’s race is open because incumbent Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

New California Senate Entry; Montana’s Sheehy Gets Major Endorsement; Former Nevada Senate Candidate Ready to Announce; Louisiana & North Carolina Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 5, 2023

Senate

Former Google executive Lexi Reese

California: New Senate Entry — Wealthy former Google executive Lexi Reese (D), who says she will spend some of her own fortune on the open statewide US Senate race, announced that she will enter the California March 5 all-party primary for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D).

While her path to claim one of the two qualifying positions necessary for advancing into the general election is narrow since she faces sitting US Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), Katie Porter (D-Irvine), and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), the chances of her taking enough Democratic votes to potentially allow a Republican to sneak past the Democratic field and clinch a general election ballot slot becomes more plausible. The California Senate race will be one of the main attractions on Super Tuesday.

Montana: Another Major Endorsement for Sheehy — On the heels of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy announcing his senatorial campaign and receiving the National Republican Senatorial Committee endorsement, another has come his way. Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) also announced his public support for Sheehy.

It is clear the Republican political establishment is getting solidly behind Sheehy in an attempt to deny Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), who soon will announce his own Senate candidacy, the nomination. Rep. Rosendale begins with a large polling lead, so it will be worth watching to see if the Montana Republican establishment has enough pull to thwart a strong Rosendale bid. The eventual party nominee then challenges three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) in what should be considered a must-win contest for the GOP.

Nevada: Former Candidate Ready to Announce — Disabled Afghan War veteran Sam Brown lost the 2022 Senate Republican primary to former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, but raised more than $4.4 million for his race, which caught the attention of the Nevada Republican leaders. Reports are surfacing that suggest Brown will return for the 2024 campaign and will announce his intentions this month. Should he enter the Republican primary, he will face former state assemblyman and ex-Secretary of State nominee Jim Marchant.

The eventual Republican nominee will then challenge first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what has the potential of becoming a top-tier 2024 Senate race.

Governor

Louisiana: Dueling Polls — Two all-party jungle gubernatorial primary polls have been released brandishing very different conclusions. The Remington Research Group (June 22-25; 896 likely Louisiana voters) released a survey this week that projected a close open contest. They found the lone Democratic candidate, former Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who is now the officially endorsed party candidate, usurping all Republicans to capture the lead with 27 percent, two points ahead of Attorney General Jeff Landry. Former Louisiana Chamber of Commerce CEO and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Stephen Waguespack placed a relatively close third with 16 percent.

WPA Intelligence released their earlier poll to counter the Remington data. In their survey (June 15-17; 500 registered Louisiana voters; live interview & text) WPAi sees Landry (R) leading the candidate field with a 35 percent preference figure. Former Secretary Wilson secures the second general election runoff slot with 17 percent. In this poll, Waguespack (R) is a distant third with six percent support.

The Louisiana open governor’s primary is scheduled for Oct. 14. Since it is likely that no candidate will receive majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance into the general election runoff, which is on the calendar for Nov. 18. Incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards (D), who has already endorsed Wilson, is ineligible to seek a third term.

North Carolina: Budding Dem Primary on the Horizon — It has been presumed that Attorney General Josh Stein (D) would see little in the way of Democratic primary opposition in his bid to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D), but such may not ultimately be the case. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Michael Morgan made a public comment late last week that clearly suggests he is seriously considering becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

Understanding that Stein was only re-elected attorney general with just 50.1 percent of the vote in 2020, many in the Democratic Party may believe the party would fare better with a fresh face come the 2024 general election. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and former Congressman Mark Walker are the leading Republican candidates. This is a developing story.

DeSantis Set to Announce Candidacy; Delaware Sen. Tom Carper to Retire; New Challenger in AZ-1; Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Gov. in NC

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 24, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Announces Today — Multiple reports are indicating that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will announce his long-awaited presidential campaign today in a Twitter interview with Elon Musk.

Thus, the slow developing national campaign is now getting underway. In addition to the DeSantis announcement, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all expected to soon formally enter the race, joining former President Donald Trump, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. The first vote will be in the Iowa Caucuses currently scheduled for Feb. 5, 2024.

Senate

Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (D) will Retire — Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced that he will conclude his long political career at the end of this Congress. Doing so means he will have served in elective office for 48 consecutive years when his current term ends.

Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) to retire.

Sen. Carper was first elected state Treasurer in 1976, then to the US House in 1982, governor in 1992, and the US Senate in 2000. During yesterday’s retirement announcement, he encouraged At-Large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), one of his former congressional staff members, to run for the Senate seat.

Carper becomes the fifth senator to forego re-election in 2024 and the fourth Democrat. He joins Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Mike Braun (R-IN), Ben Cardin (D-MD), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in the group who are voluntarily ending their Washington careers. All are retiring from politics with the exception of Sen. Braun who is running for governor of Indiana.

It remains to be seen if Rep. Blunt Rochester runs for the Senate – it is presumed she will – but another possibility is outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024. Carney, himself a former congressman, could launch a primary challenge for the Senate, which could send Rep. Blunt Rochester into the open governor’s contest. The latter move is not likely, however, since the congresswoman could have easily hopped into what was known to be an open race long before Sen. Carper’s announcement.

House

AZ-1: Another Democrat to Challenge GOP Rep. David Schweikert — Arizona Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close one-point re-election victory over Democratic newcomer Jevin Hodge last November has led to several different Democrats vying for the right to challenge the veteran GOP congressman in the next election. The Democratic field is enlarged because Hodge has decided not to return for a re-match. The new 1st District, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7, is six points less Republican than Rep. Schweikert’s previous 6th CD.

Joining the group with the announcement is former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, the wife of the late Attorney General Grant Woods who was originally elected as a Republican but switched to the Democratic Party.

Previously announced are state representative and physician Amish Shah (D-Phoenix), former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni, ex-Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, orthodontist Andrew Horne, and educator and frequent candidate W. John Williamson. Expect this race to again evolve into a national competitive congressional campaign after the Democratic nomination is decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, primary election.

NY-3: Top Republican Says “Not Interested” — As the saga of Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island) continues, it has been no secret that Long Island Republican Party leaders were looking to state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) as a potential replacement congressional nominee. While Sen. Martins indicated Monday that he “… hopes Santos will resign,” he further stated that he is “not at all interested” in running for the seat regardless of whether Santos is in the congressional race or not. Therefore, the GOP brain trust may have to begin again to identify a potential candidate either in an open-seat situation or to challenge a beleaguered Rep. Santos in the next Republican primary.

Governor

North Carolina: Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Governor — Former three-term US Rep. Mark Walker (R), who found himself without a district under the state Supreme Court-drawn map in 2020 and then ran an ill-fated 2022 US Senate campaign (losing the Republican primary to now-Sen. Ted Budd and only attracting 9.2 percent of the vote), Monday announced his gubernatorial candidacy.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the 2024 election. So far, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has a wide early lead for the party nomination and even enjoys a small polling edge over his likely Democratic gubernatorial counterpart, Attorney General Josh Stein. Walker argues that Lt. Gov. Robinson will be a poor general election candidate, thus potentially leading the party to a big loss in the November 2024 vote: hence, his reasoning for entering the governor’s race. North Carolina promises to host one of the most competitive gubernatorial campaigns on the 2024 national election card.

NY, NC House News; Polls Flipped in Mississippi; Robinson Leads in NC Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 4, 2023

House

Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D)

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Jones Moving Forward — Former US Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) appears intent on attempting to re-claim the Westchester County Congressional seat he abandoned in an unsuccessful attempt to win a newly created New York City open district last year. Reports from the state say Jones has dismissed any thought of challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand in the Democratic primary to focus on a return to the 17th District.

Driving Jones’ decision to find a new seat in 2020 was then-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D) plan to run in the 17th. Maloney being defeated in the general election at the hands of freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the D+7 rated district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization makes this 2024 campaign a prime Democratic conversion opportunity.

Though Jones may return, he will face Democratic primary competition from at least one announced candidate: Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustee Liz Gereghty, the sister of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D).

NC-8: Rep. Dan Bishop Testing the AG Waters — Reports are surfacing from the Tar Heel State that Charlotte US Rep. Dan Bishop may be looking to run for the state’s open attorney general’s post. Rep. Bishop looks to have the inside track to the Republican nomination if he chooses to run. Western North Carolina District Attorney Andrew Murray is interested in in the statewide post but suggests he will step aside for Rep. Bishop if the congressman decides to enter the race.

Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte) is a potential Democratic AG candidate, looking to succeed incumbent Josh Stein (D) who is running for governor. Rep. Jackson appears as the potential top target in what is expected to be a new redistricting plan coming from the legislature as a direct result of the state Supreme Court’s recent redistricting and voter ID rulings.

Governor

Mississippi: Conflicting Polling Data Reported — Earlier this week, we reported about a Siena College poll (April 16-20; 783 registered Mississippi voters; live interview & online) that posted Gov. Tate Reeves (R) to an expanding 49-38 percent lead over Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). Countering that result, Presley’s campaign yesterday released their own internal data (Impact Research; April 24-27; 600 likely Mississippi voters) the results of which portend a much different conclusion. IR finds its candidate, Presley, actually leading Gov. Reeves, 47-44 percent. Ths 2023 Magnolia State general election campaign promises to be much more competitive than in years past.

North Carolina: New GOP Primary Poll — Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has opened a huge lead in the open Republican gubernatorial primary according to a new Survey USA Poll. The study (April 25-29; 707 likely Republican North Carolina primary voters; live interview & online) projects Robinson to a whopping 43-9-8-4 percent lead over former Congressman Mark Walker, North Carolina Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, and state Treasurer Dale Folwell, respectively.

The GOP winner will likely face Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in the general election. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. The North Carolina primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.