Tag Archives: CA-22

Burgum Qualifies for GOP Debate; Support for Montana Senate Candidate Wans; Democratic Competition in CA-22; Returning Candidate in FL-9

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 27, 2023

President

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R)

Gov. Doug Burgum: Qualifies for GOP Debate — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum’s campaign team announced that the candidate has qualified for the first Republican debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Gov. Burgum is showing an uptick in backing from both Iowa and New Hampshire and has attracted enough small dollar contributions and polling support to qualify for a podium on the debate stage.

Gov. Burgum is the seventh debate participant joining former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence remains the most well-known candidate who has not yet qualified.

Senate

Montana: Club for Growth Hedges on Support for Rosendale — The Club for Growth leadership several months ago said they would back US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) to the tune of $10 million if he decided to challenge Sen. Jon Tester (D), as he did five years ago. In the 2018 election, Rosendale, then the state auditor, lost to Sen. Tester, 50-47 percent.

Now, CfG president David McIntosh, himself a former Republican congressman, is hedging on such a support level, saying that retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy is an impressive candidate and Rep. Rosendale is needed in the House. Rosendale has long been a presumed Senate candidate but has yet to come forward and formally announce his political plans.

House

CA-22: Democratic Competition — In November, Golden State Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) defeated then-state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D), 51.5 – 48.5 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+10. Salas, who many regard as the congressman’s most difficult opponent from the group of candidates he faced during his five victorious federal campaigns, has already announced that he is returning for a rematch. Now, however, further competition looms on the horizon. State Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger/Bakersfield) is reportedly preparing to announce for Congress and will enter the March 5, 2024, all-party jungle primary.

While Hurtado’s Senate district covers just over 96 percent of the 22nd Congressional District, she was only re-elected in November by just a 22-vote margin from more than 138,000 ballots cast. Therefore, it appears that Salas should still be favored to advance into the general election against Rep. Valadao.

FL-9: Republican to Try Again — Former state Rep. John Quinones (R), who ran for the 9th District seat in 2012 but lost soundly (63-37 percent) to then-Rep. Alan Grayson (D), is returning to run again in 2024, this time hoping to challenge incumbent Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee). The 9th District, which contains the south Orlando area, was the most over-populated of the 27 Florida congressional districts prior to reapportionment and redistricting. It has 30 percent different territory from when Quinones ran the first time.

Rep. Soto was re-elected to a fourth term in November with a 54-46 percent margin, which was much lower than expected against an opponent who spent less than $600,000. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-9 at a substantial D+16, with a partisan lean calculation from Dave’s Redistricting App of 58.8D – 39.2R.

Indiana Gov. Holcomb Leaves Door Open for Senate Bid, Sen. Braun Up in Released Gov Poll; CA-22 Re-Match Already Building; NC Redistricting Case Could be Moot

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 8, 2022

Senate

Indiana Gov. Eric Holcomb (R)

Indiana: Gov. Holcomb Leaves Door Open — Early political reports coming from the Hoosier State suggest that Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) will not pursue a 2024 US Senate bid when his tenure as governor comes to an end. Gov. Holcomb is ineligible to seek a third term.

When asked about running for the Senate this week on wishtv.com, however, Gov. Holcomb replied, “there’ll be time for me to think about the future in the future. But it would be next to irresponsible for me to take my eye off the job that I’ve got.”

This response suggests the Senate race door is not fully closed and will certainly remain an option for Holcomb as time moves forward. With universal statewide name identification and the ability to quickly raise large amounts money, Gov. Holcomb has the luxury of waiting to make a decision until he sees how an open Senate field develops. First-term Sen. Mike Braun (R) is a clearly preparing a run for governor, thus leaving his Senate seat open.

House

CA-22: Re-Match Already Building — California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is tied for representing the most Democratic seat in the country that sends a Republican to the US House. Long Island Rep-Elect Anthony D’Esposito (R-Hempstead) holds the other. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates both Valadao’s CA-22 and Mr. D’Esposito’s NY-4 at D+10.

Despite the odds stacked against him, Rep. Valadao was able to post a 51.5 – 48.5 percent victory over state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) in November, who was arguably the most difficult opponent Valadao faced in his five winning electoral campaigns. Yesterday, Salas, who risked his Assembly seat to run for Congress, filed a committee to seek a re-match in 2024. If he ultimately follows through and runs two years from now, this race will again become a top national Democratic conversion target.

Governor

Indiana: Sen. Braun Releases Gov Poll — Sen. Mike Braun (R) is clearly moving toward making a quick gubernatorial announcement after filing a state gubernatorial campaign committee last week. Reports suggest that Sen. Braun may make his formal declaration as early as next week. In preparation for launching a gubernatorial bid, he just released the results of an internal poll.

The study, from the Mark It Red research group (Nov. 18-22; sample size not released), finds Sen. Braun opening with a large Republican primary advantage in what will be an open race for governor. According to the survey results, Sen. Braun would lead Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and venture capitalist Eric Doden, 47-10-5 percent, respectively.

States

North Carolina: Redistricting Case Could be Moot — The North Carolina partisan gerrymandering case that was heard before the US Supreme Court yesterday is a potential landmark case, but some North Carolina state political sources suggest the arguments may go by the proverbial wayside. The high court will rule before the end of June, but before that occurs, the new North Carolina legislature may draft new redistricting plans for the US House, state Senate, and state House of Representatives. Since a court map is only an interim plan, the legislature can replace it with a permanent draw at any time.

If this occurs as described, and new maps are enacted –- remember, in North Carolina, the governor has no veto power over redistricting legislation -– it is possible that the action could render the case before the Supreme Court as moot. If so, the issue of whether the Constitution views state legislatures as solely independent when handling redistricting could well go unanswered.

Schiff Explores Senate Race; Valadao Re-Elected; House Candidate Filings

By Jim Ellis — Nov. 23, 2022

Senate

California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank)

California: Rep. Schiff Exploring Senate Race — With most people believing that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) will not seek re-election in 2024 when she will be 91 years of age, Southern California Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) said that he is considering launching a US Senate exploratory committee. Schiff is already in a battle to keep his seat on the Intelligence Committee after Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) — should he be elected Speaker — said that Schiff and Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) would be removed from the panel.

Should Sen. Feinstein retire, we will see a strong Democratic battle to replace her. In California’s jungle primary system, it is likely that two Democrats would advance into the general election. One thing is certain: Rep. Schiff would be able to raise the money to compete. In his bid for re-election to the House in the current cycle, he raised more than $22 million.

House

CA-22: Rep. David Valadao Wins Re-election — The Associated Press, late Monday afternoon Pacific time, projected that Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) had defeated state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) in their hard-fought congressional race. This, despite Rep. Valadao finishing a distant second on the jungle primary back in June when he received only 26 percent of the vote versus Salas’ 45 percent in a field of four candidates in the most Democratic congressional district in the country that elects a Republican to the House.

According to the California Secretary of State’s official count, Valadao held a 3,381 vote lead with just over 100,000 votes counted. Based upon the number of outstanding ballots and where they are from, the AP made the unofficial projection. The Valadao victory gives the Republicans 220 members in the new Congress as compared to 212 Democrats. Three races, two in California and one in Alaska, remain uncalled. Republicans lead in both Golden State races, Democrats in the Last Frontier.

NC-13: Hines Files 2024 Committee — The court-drawn North Carolina congressional map featured a new 13th District that contained the southern Raleigh suburbs, the city of Fayetteville, and Republican Johnston County, which made the CD a toss-up seat. Democratic state Sen. Wiley Nickel carried the district with a 52-48 percent margin, defeating Republican Bo Hines, who received the Trump endorsement in the GOP primary.

Hines, 27, was a former football player for North Carolina State University, but had no other particular ties to the region and actually planned to run in another district before this open seat was drawn. He filed a new 2024 committee on Monday, presumably sending signals that he intends to run again.

Hines did not receive particularly favorable marks as a candidate, and there is a good chance we will see a new North Carolina map drawn after the Supreme Court rules on the state’s partisan gerrymandering case before them. Even if Hines decides to run, he can expect heavy competition in the Republican primary before getting another opportunity of opposing Rep-Elect Nickel.

WV-2: State Treasurer Announces for House — Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) already announcing that he will challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the next election year has ignited the first of what promises to be political musical chairs for what will be an open 2nd Congressional District. State Treasurer Riley Moore (R) announced his congressional candidacy Monday and is the first major candidate to enter the 2024 race. Rep. Mooney’s successor will likely be decided in the Republican primary in a seat that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+34.

Where the Uncalled Races Stand

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 18, 2022

House

The House majority has been decided and leadership races are underway; still seven congressional contests remain uncalled. Today, we take a quick look at where each of these campaigns are leaning.

The seven uncalled races are all in Alaska, California and Colorado. They are: AK-AL (Peltola-D), CA-3 (open), CA-13 (open), CA-22 (Valadao-R), CA-47 (Porter-D), CO-3 (Boebert-R), and CO-8 (open). At this writing, Republicans lead in four of these campaigns and Democrats three.

Alaska’s Mary Peltola (D) on track to be re-elected.

• AK-AL — According to the CNN Elections site, 81 percent of the Alaska vote has been recorded. A two-week post-election period to accept ballots from the wilderness has always been part of Alaska election law, so the elections take a long while to be finalized and certified. With the change in the state’s voting system beginning with this election, where the Ranked Choice Voting system has been added for races where no candidate receives majority support in the aggregate vote, the process is even longer.

In the at-large congressional, freshman Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel), who won the August special election to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R), has a healthy lead and is approaching the majority plateau. She leads former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and businessman Nick Begich III (R) by a 48.1 – 26.1 – 23.8 percent. Libertarian candidate Chris Bye holds the remaining 1.7 percent, and he will be the first eliminated assuming the campaign advances into the RCV round. At the end of the elongated process, expect Rep. Peltola to be re-elected.

• CA-3 — California’s 3rd Congressional District is a redistricting-created open seat that contains much of the territory that Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Elk Grove) currently represents. McClintock chose to seek re-election in new District 5, and scored a 61 percent victory.

The leader in this R+8 district that stretches from Sacramento down the California-Nevada border all the way into the southern part of the state is Assemblyman Kevin Kiley (R-Granite Bay/Sacramento). He holds a 52.4 – 47.6 percent lead over physician and Iraq War veteran Kermit Jones (D), a margin of 9,479 votes with 60 percent tabulated.

Kiley leads in six of the district’s nine counties, but one of his biggest advantages is in Placer County, the district’s largest and where only 42 percent of the vote is tabulated. With Kiley receiving 55.9 percent of this county’s votes to date, he has a big edge. Therefore, when more of this district is finally reporting under California’s very long counting system, expect Kiley to clinch this seat for the Republicans.

• CA-13 — In the redistricting-created open 13th CD that stretches from the Sacramento County border to Fresno, we see one of the closest uncalled races. Here, with 71 percent of the estimated vote counted and the lead seesawing back and forth between agri-businessman John Duarte (R) and state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced), the race is still anybody’s to win.

Currently, Duarte has re-captured a lead with a scant 827-vote lead. Gray, however, leads in three of the district’s five counties, but the margins are tight in each of the domains. This is one that could come down to the very last few votes. Going to a re-count after the total vote is finally presented is a likelihood.

• CA-22 — This Fresno-Bakersfield district is the most Democratic seat in the country, D+10 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, that sends a Republican to the House. At this point, with only 51 percent counted, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) leads state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) by 4,445 votes.

From the three counties, however, Salas leads in the largest, Kern, with 52.3 percent of the vote and only 43 percent of the county vote is tabulated. Therefore, Salas has room to grow. Rep. Valadao holds strong leads in the other two counties, which are smaller, and at least 90 percent has been recorded in each. This race will get closer, but as long as Valadao continues to hold his share in Kern County, he might have enough of a margin to hold on.

• CA-47 — Some entities have already projected Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) as the winner over former state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R). With a reported 8,250-vote lead in the Orange County seat, it is likely just a matter of time until she is officially declared the campaign’s victor.

• CO-3 — Yesterday was the deadline in Colorado to accept all post-election ballots including ones from overseas. The after-count has seen Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-Silt) lead cut in half, and now she has only a 551 vote edge over former Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D). Depending upon how many votes remain to be counted, this election could still go either way. Expect the final totals to be released as early as today, and a re-count will likely be part of this campaign’s conclusion.

• CO-8 — Colorado’s new congressional district, CD-8, awarded through national reapportionment, was drawn as a 50-50 partisan seat and is performing as drawn. With the after-votes still being counted, Democratic state Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Eastlake) holds a 1,625 vote lead over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer (R-Weld County). Though more of the votes are expected to come from Kirkmeyer’s home turf, the margin will likely reduce even further. This could be another re-count race, but it appears likely that Caraveo will be leading when the count finalizes.

In the end, the uncalled races should yield the Republicans two to three more seats, meaning their majority figure will be 220 or 221.

Our Primary Preview Shows Liz Cheney Down Big in Latest Wyoming Poll; Key California Race Polls; Incumbents in Trouble in Four States

By Jim Ellis — Aug. 15, 2022

Primary Preview

Rep. Liz Cheney, (R-WY)

WY-AL: Cheney Down 29 Points in Poll — The University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center conducted a poll of Tuesday’s Republican congressional primary (July 25-Aug. 6; 562 likely WY-AL Republican primary voters; live interview) and sees GOP attorney Harriet Hageman leading US Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wilson/Jackson) by a whopping 57-28 percent count as the candidates wrapped up their final campaign activities during the weekend.

Remembering that Wyoming has an open primary where Democrats and Independents can vote in a Republican primary (and vice-versa), Cheney’s numbers among self-identified Republican voters are even worse, 68-15 percent, in favor of Hageman. The congresswoman gets 98 percent of the crossover Democratic vote, however, while the Independents are split about evenly with the incumbent leading 43-40 percent within this voter segment.

Former Wyoming Republican National Committeewoman Harriet Hageman (R)

The pollsters wanted to see how many people are actually voting for a Cheney opponent, namely Hageman, or to make a statement of opposition against the congresswoman. Therefore, after the individual had stated a candidate preference, the interviewer asked the respondents if their vote is to “mainly support” (the named candidate) or oppose Liz Cheney? The reverse was asked of those people saying they are voting for the congresswoman.

Among Republicans voting for Hageman or one of the other Cheney opponents, 39.5 percent said they were making a statement of opposition toward the Congresswoman, while 31.5 percent said they were stating support for their chosen candidate. The remaining 29.0 percent volunteered that they were doing both. Among the Democrats voting for one of the Republicans other than Cheney, 100 percent of them said they were doing so to oppose the congresswoman. Within the Independent non-Cheney voter segment, 47.1 percent said their vote opposes Cheney versus 21.6 percent to support their chosen contender.

For those supporting Rep. Cheney, 77.8 percent of Republicans, 60.0 percent of Democrats, and 58.8 percent of Independents said their vote is a sign of support for the congresswoman. It appears clear that Hageman will defeat Rep. Cheney on Tuesday night.

A Cheney defeat would mean that of the 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach former President Trump, only one, Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-WA) who survived his jungle primary with less than 30 percent of the vote, is on a track to win re-election. Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) could also win, but he fared poorly in his jungle primary, barely capturing second place, and currently trails in polling opposite Democratic state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield). Therefore, his re-election path is more difficult.

Should Cheney lose on Tuesday as expected, four of the impeachment Republicans would have lost re-nomination (Tom Rice (R-SC); Peter Meijer (R-MI); Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA); and Ms. Cheney), and four did not seek re-election (Reps. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), Anthony Gonzalez (R-OH), John Katko (R-NY), and Fred Upton (R-MI)).

House

California: Series of Key Race Golden State Polls — RGM Research conducted polls in House districts throughout the country including three in northern California contested districts. All are in close competition at this point. Each of the polls consisted of 400 respondents for the individual tested districts. The CA-9 poll was conducted during the July 19-26 period.

In the Stockton anchored district, Rep. Josh Harder (D-Turlock) and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti (R) are tied at 38 percent. In the new open 13th CD that stretches from the southern Sacramento County border to Fresno, the survey was conducted during the July 26 – Aug. 2 period. On this ballot test, rancher John Duarte (R) and state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D-Merced) are tied at 37 percent.

In Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd CD (July 30-Aug. 5), the ballot test finds state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) leading the congressman, 39-34 percent.

IN-2: Special Election Scheduled — Gov. Eric Holcomb (R), as expected, announced that the special election to replace the late Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Elkhart) will be held concurrently with the Nov. 8 general election. Republicans will gather in a precinct committee convention on Aug. 20 to choose a nominee for the special election, and a replacement for Walorski, who won the May Republican primary, in the regular election. Democrats are expected to nominate the party’s regular election nominee, educator Paul Steury.

Incumbents: Polls Find Four Incumbents Trailing — The RMG Research firm is polling around the country and found an additional four races where the incumbent House member is trailing. This, in addition to Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) falling behind in his Fresno/Bakersfield seat as covered in the California report above.

  1. In Iowa, state Sen. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) holds a substantial 49-41 percent advantage over Rep. Cindy Axne (D-Des Moines) according to 400 respondents on the RMG survey conducted over the July 29 – Aug. 5 period.
  2. Former New Jersey state senator and 2020 Republican congressional nominee Tom Kean Jr. leads Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Rocky Hill) 46-38 percent on the 400-person sample RMG Research survey conducted in the Garden State’s 7th CD (July 23-28).
  3. Moving to the Kansas City, KS area, challenger Amanda Adkins, the 2020 Republican congressional nominee, holds a 46-45 percent edge over Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park). This RMG poll also surveyed 400 likely voters, and in KS-3 over the period of July 21-28.
  4. Finally, in the Las Vegas area, the RMG poll for Nevada’s 3rd District (July 23-29; 400 likely NV-3 general election voters) finds challenger April Becker (R) holding a 44-41 percent lead over two-term Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas).

Ogles Claims TN-5; Valadao Trails in New CA Poll; Salazar Holding Lead

By Jim Ellis — August 5, 2022

Primary Results

Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles

Tennessee: Ogles Claims 5th District; Dem Gov Undecided — The Volunteer State voters engaged in the country’s only Thursday primary, and the open 5th District (Rep. Jim Cooper-D retiring) was the evening’s key race. The crowded Republican primary winner was Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles. He defeated former state House Speaker Beth Harwell and retired National Guard Gen. Kurt Winstead along with six others.

Redistricting transformed this seat into a Republican domain, so Ogles becomes a heavy favorite to defeat state Sen. Heidi Campbell (D-Nashville) in the general election. The three incumbents who faced competition, Reps. Charles Fleishmann (R-Chattanooga), David Kustoff (R-Germantown), and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) were all easily renominated.

The Democratic governor’s nomination is still undecided. With 98 percent of the vote counted, physician Jason Martin leads Memphis City Councilman J.B. Smiley Jr. by only 1,468 votes. Gov. Bill Lee was unopposed in the Republican primary. He will be the prohibitive general election favorite over either Martin or Smiley.

House

CA-22: Rep. Valadao Trails in New Poll — California Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) represents the most Democratic district in the nation that elects a Republican to the US House, and redistricting made the seat tilt even further away from the congressman. The jungle primary saw him qualify for the general election, but with only 26 percent of the vote as he finished in second place.

A newly released David Binder Research poll (July 13-15; 600 likely CA-22 general election voters) finds state Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield) leading Rep. Valadao 43-35 percent as the general election campaign in California’s Central Valley is now fully underway. We can expect this race to close tight, but it is one of the best Democratic opportunities in the nation to convert a Republican seat.

FL-27: Rep. Salazar Holding Lead — Despite inheriting a slightly more favorable district for Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami) post-redistricting, but one that still favors the Democrats, a new Alvarado Strategies Poll for the Floridians for Economic Advancement PAC (July 26-29; 440 likely FL-27 general election voters; online) stakes the congresswoman to a lead slightly beyond the polling margin of error. Though the ballot test shows a large undecided factor of 27 percent, Rep. Salazar posts a 39-34 percent margin over state Sen. Annette Taddeo (D-Miami).

NM-2: Dead Heat — Freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamorgordo) was dealt a difficult blow in redistricting, and a new Global Strategy Group poll conducted for Democratic nominee Gabe Vasquez, a Las Cruces City Councilman (July 19-25; 500 likely NM-2 general election voters; live interview), projects a dead heat already forming for the general election. According to the GSG survey, Vasquez would hold a slight 45-44 percent edge over Rep. Herrell. The 2nd District was drawn as a D+4 district according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization transforming it from the R+14 seat that Herrell currently represents.

Governor

Minneosta: Gov. Walz (D) in Tight Race — A just-released Cygnal group survey of the Minnesota electorate (July 18-19; 500 likely Minnesota general election voters; live interview & text) sees Gov. Tim Walz (D) leading presumed Republican nominee Scott Jensen, a physician and former state senator, but only by a few percentage points. According to the Cygnal poll, Dr. Jensen trails the governor by a tight 50-46 percent margin. The Minnesota primary is Tuesday, but Dr. Jensen faces only minor Republican opposition by virtue of his state party convention victory earlier in the year.

The Cygnal poll found Gov. Walz with a 49:45 percent favorability rating and Dr. Jensen scored a 32:24 percent positive index. President Biden’s rating is an upside down 42:56 percent positive to negative ratio. Within the polling universe, 43 percent believe Minnesota is on the right track, while 48 percent feel the state has veered in the wrong direction.

DCCC’s Red to Blue Targets

By Jim Ellis

March 14, 2022 — The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their first targets in what they call their Red to Blue program or, in other words, the districts they hope to convert from Republican to Democrat. Curiously, two districts on the list are already blue.

Below is a look at the DCCC’s dozen released targets:


CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford)
2020 Win Percentage: 50.4% in District 21

• FiveThirtyEight: D+10
• Dave’s Redistricting App: 42.3% R / 55.1% D
Endorsed Candidate: State Assemblyman Rudy Salas (D-Bakersfield)

By the numbers, this is one of the Democrats’ best national targets, but Rep. Valadao has consistently won in Democratic seats. He lost in 2018, but won the seat back two years later. Assemblyman Salas is the Democrats’ top recruitment target. Despite the lopsided Democratic numerical advantage, the finish here will again likely be razor-thin.


CA-45: Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County)
2020 Win Percentage: 51.1% in District 48

• FiveThirtyEight: D+5
• Dave’s Redistricting App: 45.8% R / 52.2% D
Endorsed Candidate: Jay Chen – Community College Trustee

Freshman Rep. Steel is another Republican to whom the California Citizens Redistricting Commission members were not kind. Moving into the more inland Orange County district from her coastal seat, Steel has been a well known figure in Orange County politics for many years, particularly with her service time on the Orange County Board of Supervisors before winning the congressional seat.

A D+5 seat is exactly the type the Republicans must win to achieve their goal of re-taking the majority. With national redistricting cutting against them, the GOP must win a sizable number of the 22 seats so far within the Even to D+5 category.


CO-7: Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Arvada) – Open Seat
2020 Win Percentage: 59.1%

• FiveThirtyEight: D+6
• Dave’s Redistricting App: 43.8% R / 51.7% D
Endorsed Candidate: State Sen. Brittany Petterson (D-Lakewood)

This district does not really belong on the list since it is already a blue seat. Democrats are favored to hold the seat and Sen. Petterson is clearly their candidate to do so.


IA-1: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Ottumwa)
2020 Win Percentage: 50.0% (6 votes districtwide) in District 2

• FiveThirtyEight: R+4
• Dave’s Redistricting App: 49.7% R / 46.8% D
Endorsed Candidate: State Rep. Christina Bohannan (D-Iowa City)

Rep. Miller-Meeks won the closest race in the country in 2020, a literal six-vote affair against former state senator and 2018 lieutenant governor nominee Rita Hart (D). This year, the congresswoman will see a different opponent since Hart chose not to return for a re-match. State Rep. Bohannan has two Democratic opponents, but she should have little trouble in winning the party nomination on June 7.

This will be another close eastern Iowa campaign, and this district is actually one point more Democratic than the previous 2nd according to the FiveThirtyEight statistical organization. This is a top Democratic target, but Rep. Milller-Meeks will be favored assuming the political climate remains favorable for Republicans.


IA-2: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids)
2020 Win Percentage: 50.0% in District 1

• FiveThirtyEight: R+6
• Dave’s Redistricting App: 51.1% R / 45.4% D
Endorsed Candidate: State Sen. Liz Mathis (D-Hiawatha)

In the first redistricting map presented last year, Rep. Hinson would likely have been defeated. With the legislature rejecting that draw, a new one emerged. This gives the congresswoman a more favorable seat but one this is still highly competitive. Democrats have recruited a strong candidate in Sen. Mathis. She has no primary opposition at this time. In a favorable GOP political climate, this seat would become difficult for the Democrats to convert despite its statistical closeness.
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