Tag Archives: CO-3

Boebert Tops GOP Assembly Vote;
Two Qualify for CO-3 Primary;
Three-Way Outcome in CA-16; Morrisey Stretches Lead in WVA.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 9, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

CO-4: Boebert Tops GOP Assembly Vote — Colorado Republicans met in a pair of local assemblies to potentially send candidates to the June 25 primary election. The big story surrounding the party assemblies comes from former Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) open 4th District where 3rd District Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) is attempting to win re-election in a new CD. Many believed she would not fare particularly well at the assembly, but a plurality of the 527 attending delegates proved them wrong.

Boebert finished first in the voting with 41 percent support, thus awarding her the first ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary. Former state Sen. Ted Harvey, who many believed to be the favorite, finished with 26 percent of the delegate vote. Therefore, he did not qualify for the ballot. Since he did not circulate petitions, Harvey is eliminated. Several others will qualify through petition, meaning we will see a contested primary election in this district.

CO-3: Two Qualify for Primary — Under Colorado election procedure, a candidate can qualify for the ballot either by receiving at least 30 percent of the delegate vote at district assembly or petitioning onto the ballot with 1,500 signatures for a congressional race. A candidate can both participate in the assembly and obtain signatures.

If a contender draws less than 10 percent of the assembly vote, he or she is disqualified from the primary.

In Rep. Boebert’s now open 3rd District, two individuals exceeded the 30 percent threshold, therefore securing primary ballot positions. Colorado Board of Education Member Stephen Varela and former state representative Ron Hanks have earned the first and second ballot positions.

Businessman Curtis McCrackin, who did not participate in the assembly, has qualified through petition signatures. Three more have submitted petitions and are awaiting certification from the secretary of state. An additional three candidates failed to reach the 10 percent threshold at the district assembly and are disqualified. Democrat Adam Frisch, the 2022 candidate, who lost to Boebert by only 546 votes, is a virtual lock to again be his party’s nominee.

CA-16: The Three-Way Outcome — Though official certification of the March 5th California primary will not occur until April 12, it appears that the second general election position in the state’s 16th Congressional District will end in a tie. With no votes remaining to be counted, San Mateo County Supervisor and former state Sen. Joe Simitian (D) and Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) both have garnered 30,249 votes. In first position is former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D) with 38,489 tallies.

Under the top-two California jungle primary law, in the case of a tie the deadlocked participants both advance to the general election. The state has no automatic recount law, but a candidate can request, and pay for, a recount of the ballots. It is highly unlikely that either Simitian or Low will call for a recount, however. At this point, both are in the general election and a recount would very likely change the outcome by a small number of votes. This means each would be rolling the dice that a new tally would favor them.

The interesting part of this scenario, however, is whether Liccardo, the first-place finisher, will call for a recount. He is determining if a three-way race is to his benefit or squaring off with one of the others. Since he already placed first in the crowded field of 11 candidates, he will probably conclude that his chances are best in the three-way field. Therefore, this is a rare situation when the top-two system actually produced three qualifiers. And, to make the outcome even rarer, all three are Democrats.

Governor

West Virginia: Morrisey Stretches Lead in New Poll — WPA Intelligence released a survey for the Black Bear Super PAC, which supports Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s (R) bid for governor. The poll, (March 12-13; 501 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters) sees the AG posting a 37-20-19-14 percent GOP primary advantage over former Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively.

The numbers and candidate order has remained consistent through three WPAi polls beginning with their first study in November. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14. Gov. Jim Justice (R), ineligible to seek a third term, is running for US Senate. The eventual Republican nominee will have the inside track toward winning the general election.

The Boebert Switch

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 3, 2024

House

Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Election Strategy: Rep. Boebert Jumps Districts — During the Holiday break, Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) announced for re-election as expected, but surprisingly from a different place.

Saying, “I will not allow dark money that is directed at destroying me personally to steal this seat. It’s not fair to the 3rd District and the conservatives there who have fought so hard for our victories,” Rep. Boebert announced that she is leaving her western Colorado congressional seat to seek re-election in eastern Colorado’s 4th CD. The 4th is open because five-term Rep. Ken Buck (R-Windsor) is retiring.

Together, the 3rd and 4th districts form a virtual horseshoe within the state’s confines. The 3rd contains Colorado’s northwest border and the state’s entire western boundary shared with Utah. The 4th encompasses the Centennial State’s northeast border and the entire eastern edge shared with Nebraska and Kansas. Together, the two districts then form Colorado’s southern border co-occupied with New Mexico and Oklahoma.

While Rep. Boebert faces difficult odds in attempting to capture the Republican nomination in an unfamiliar open district, a reconfigured seat that encompasses less than five percent of the constituency that initially elected her in 2020, her chances are likely better than winning the general election in her current CD even though CO-3 is considered a relatively safe Republican seat.

Her move is largely an admission that she would not win re-election in the 3rd District, especially with 2022 Democratic opponent Adam Frisch (D), a former Aspen City Councilman, having already raised just under $8 million through the Sept. 30 campaign finance period. During the same period, Rep. Boebert raised $2.4 million.

Boebert, who won with the closest 2022 re-election of any House race in the country (a 546-vote margin from 327,132 cast ballots), severely under-performed in a 3rd District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15. It was clear that she would be the most endangered incumbent seeking re-election in a non-redistricting political situation.

Therefore, her switch to the 4th CD, Colorado’s safest Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight: R+26; Daily Kos Elections ranks it as the 115th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference), not only enhances Rep. Boebert’s ability to remain in Congress but is a major boon to the Republican Party because a new 3rd District GOP candidate will begin at least on an even footing with Frisch.

Continue reading →

Pence Suspends Campaign; Allred Leads in Texas Poll; Boebert Struggling in Colorado; Gimenez Jumping Into FL-28 Campaign; Georgia Governor Calls Special Session

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 31, 2023

President

Former Vice President Mike Pence / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Mike Pence: Suspends Campaign — At the Republican Jewish Coalition event in Las Vegas on Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence, saying it is evident that “now is not my time” suspended his 2024 presidential campaign. Pence follows former US Rep. Will Hurd and commentator Larry Elder in dropping out of the presidential race. Upon his exit, Pence did not endorse another candidate as Hurd did, who now supports former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley; Elder is backing former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Leads in Dem Primary Poll — YouGov, polling for the University of Texas, conducted a new statewide poll of the Lone Star electorate (Oct. 5-17; 1,200 registered Texas voters; 568 likely Republican primary voters; 409 likely Democratic primary voters; online; weighted sample). In testing the Senate Democratic primary, the pollsters found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) leading state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), 2022 congressional candidate Sherri Taylor, former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez, and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) with a 21-10-3-2-2 percent, respectively. Nine additional names were also included on the ballot test question.

Though Rep. Allred, the Democratic establishment-backed candidate, has a lead in polling and certainly fundraising, the large field and his underwhelming early support total suggests it will be difficult for him, or any other candidate, to win the primary outright on March 5. Therefore, advancing to a May 28 runoff election between the top two Democratic primary finishers at this time appears a likely result.

House

CO-3: Boebert Primary Opponent Gaining Steam — Attorney Jeff Hurd, one of four Republicans challenging Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) for re-election in Colorado’s western slope 3rd District, has earned a major endorsement. Former two-term Gov. Bill Owens (R-1999-2007), the last Republican to win the office, announced his support for Hurd late last week.

Rep. Boebert will be hard-pressed to win re-election. Surviving in the closest campaign of 2022 (a 546-vote margin), her former opponent, ex-Aspen City Councilman Adam Frisch (D), is returning for a re-match and has already raised a whopping $8.5 million toward his 2024 campaign. A strong Republican primary challenge from Hurd will now be interesting to watch. The Colorado primary is scheduled for June 25, 2024.

FL-28: Rep. Gimenez Leads in New Poll — Retired Navy Cmdr. Phil Ehr (D), who twice ran unsuccessfully for Florida’s northernmost district (FL-1; losing general election to Rep. Matt Gaetz in 2020; losing Democratic primary in 2018) is now attempting to win the state’s southernmost district, FL-28. A new Change Research poll, conducted for Ehr’s fledgling campaign (Oct. 13-17; 500 likely 2024 FL-28 general election voters; online) finds Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami) leading Ehr, 45-32 percent.

There has been speculation that Rep. Gimenez, a former Miami-Dade County mayor who was ineligible to seek re-election to a third term in 2020, may eschew re-election to the House in order to oppose the individual who succeeded him, Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava (D).

Rep. Gimenez first won his US House seat in 2020, defeating then-Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), who is now running for US Senate. He was re-elected in 2022 with a strong 64-36 percent victory margin. The 28th District, which stretches from Miami to Key West, is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a different partisan lean, however. Dave’s App finds the Democrats holding a 51.0 to 47.6 partisan advantage. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks the seat as the 12th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

Georgia: Governor Calls Special Session — In order to comply with last week’s federal district judicial ruling that declared the Georgia congressional and state legislative maps as illegal racial gerrymanders, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has scheduled a special legislative session for Nov. 29 for purposes of drawing new congressional and legislative boundaries. Republicans may appeal the ruling, however, which could delay the process. Therefore, it remains unclear if any new map will take effect in time for the 2024 election.

Ramaswamy Advances in Polling; Romney Support Dips in Utah;
Rep. Boebert’s Colorado Challenge; Significant Candidate Lead in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Aug. 21, 2023

President

Vivek Ramaswamy (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Major Move in National Polls — Three new national Republican primary surveys find businessman Vivek Ramaswamy moving into the top tier within the large field of presidential candidates. The Fox News Poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,002 registered US voters; live interview) and the Quinnipiac University national surveys (Aug. 11-14; 1,632 self-identified US registered voters; 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters; 666 Democratic and Democratic leaning primary voters; live interview) project Ramaswamy as placing third behind former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The RMG Research survey finds Ramaswamy doing even better. In their latest poll (Aug. 11-14; 1,000 registered US voters; 229 likely Republican primary voters), though with a very small national GOP sample, Ramaswamy moves into second place with 13 percent compared to Gov. DeSantis’ 8 percent. Former President Trump tops the RMG poll with a whopping 60 percent support figure.

Senate

Utah: Sen. Romney at 30 percent in New GOP Poll — A Noble Predictive Insights survey conducted a month ago but just released just late last week (July 7-18; 598 registered Utah voters; 301 likely Republican primary voters; online) finds Utah Sen. Mitt Romney drawing only 30 percent support among a respondent sample of his own Republican primary voters.

Despite the low preference number, Sen. Romney leads a group of potential GOP opponents. Closest to him is Attorney General Sean Reyes, an unannounced Senate candidate, who posted 13 percent support. The two official candidates, state House Speaker Brad Wilson (R-Kaysville) and Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs posted five and three percent, respectively. When asked of the entire sample whether they believe Sen. Romney should run for re-election, 39 percent answered yes, while 44 percent replied with a negative response.

House

CO-3: Rep. Boebert’s Republican Challenge — Saying he’s “… not interested in becoming a social media celebrity … I’m interested in helping families and helping businesses and helping communities,” attorney Jeff Hurd entered Colorado’s 3rd District Republican primary hoping to deny two-term incumbent Congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) renomination. In 2022, then-state Sen. Don Coram challenged her in the party primary but received only 34 percent of the Republican vote.

Should Rep. Boebert win renomination, she will again face a difficult general election against Democrat Adam Frisch who came within 546 votes of unseating her in the 2022 general election. This, despite the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating CO-3 as R+15.

Governor

New Hampshire: Significant Open Primary Polling Leads — Earlier in the week, we covered an Emerson College survey (Aug. 9-11; 837 registered New Hampshire voters; interactive voice response system, text & online) that posted former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) to substantial leads over two strong Democratic contenders. Now, we see the primary numbers from this same poll.

According to Emerson, Ayotte would not only lead in the general election, but she opens a definitive edge over who will likely be her chief Republican opponent, former state Senate President Chuck Morse. The initial ballot test finds Ayotte leading Morse, 45-9 percent. On the Democratic side, Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig is staked to a strong 52-15 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is retiring after serving what will be four consecutive terms when his tenure expires at the beginning of 2025.

McClain Declines Michigan Senate Run; Boebert Challenged in CO-3; Pappas Gets Republican Challenger; Matos Review Reversed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 31, 2023

Senate

Michigan: Rep. McClain Declines Senate Run — Two-term Michigan US Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Bruce), who represents the region commonly referred to as “the thumb” since the state’s Lower Peninsula configuration resembles a human hand, said yesterday that she will not enter the open US Senate race next year. The move presumes that she will seek re-election to the House in 2024.

Rep. McClain had been mentioned from time to time but was not considered as having a serious desire to run for the Senate, so her decision to pass on the statewide run is not surprising. As the Republican Conference Secretary, Rep. McClain is part of the GOP majority leadership team.

House

CO-3: Dem Primary Forming to Challenge Rep. Boebert — Grand Junction Mayor Mary Anna Stout (D) announced late last week that she will run for the US House. Her main opponent in the Democratic primary is 2022 nominee Adam Frisch, who only lost to Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) by 546 votes in the closest US House race in the country. Beginning this campaign, Frisch has already raised a whopping $2.6 million in the 2nd Quarter and has $2.5 million cash-on-hand, or more than $1 million over what Rep. Boebert has in her account ($1.4 million). Three other minor Democrats are also announced candidates.

There are two options for qualifying for the Colorado ballot. First, is through garnering the requisite number of delegate votes at the Democratic Party district convention, or second, through obtaining petition signatures from registered voters in the particular district. It is a virtual certainty that Frisch will dominate the convention, so the others will likely choose the petition route. The CO-3 race will probably be the top Democratic conversion target in the country next year despite a R+15 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization.

NH-1: Rep. Pappas Draws GOP Opponent — Former New Hampshire Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott (R) announced that he will again enter the 1st District congressional race. He ran in 2022 but finished a poor fourth in the Republican primary with only 10 percent of the vote. Prescott and incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) are well known to each other. They served together on the state’s Executive Council, the position Pappas held before his election to the House in 2018.

Prior to redistricting, the 1st District had defeated more incumbents than any seat in the country during the past decade. Therefore, the campaigns here are always competitive. Rep. Pappas won a surprisingly strong 54-46 percent victory last November over former Trump Assistant Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt (R).

RI-1: Board of Elections Reverses Course — After voting 5-1 to review the signature petition process for Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos’ (D) special election congressional campaign, the Board members reversed themselves 24 hours later. Their stated reasoning is that the local boards had already done the job of culling through the names and referring those they found irregular to law enforcement.

The reversal sets the stage for Matos being approved for the ballot. Early polling casts her as the race leader. A dozen Democrats have already been awarded a ballot position. The special Democratic primary to replace resigned Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) is scheduled for Sept. 5. The special general will be Nov. 7, but winning the Democratic primary will prove tantamount to claiming the seat.

Haley Announces Presidential Bid; Sen. Feinstein to Retire; Cruz Commits to Senate Run; Boebert’s 2022 Opponent to Challenge Again; Miss. Gov. Poll Flips Results

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 16, 2023

President

Nikki Haley (R)

Nikki Haley: Announces Presidential Bid — Former South Carolina governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), as promised, officially announced her presidential campaign, joining former President Trump in the GOP field. Analysts pointed out that her announcement portfolio relies heavily on her background with little in the way of future vision. This approach largely proved a mistake for Republicans nationally in 2022, and the principal reason that many believed GOP candidates under-performed in the last election.

For his part, former President Trump seems to welcome her into the race, as he probably will with others. He understands a crowded field will likely award him the nomination with base support nationally of approximately 35 percent, just how the 2016 Republican campaign unfolded.

Senate

California: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) Announces Retirement Plans — As expected, veteran Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), now the longest-serving Democrat in the chamber since former Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) retired, announced that she will not seek re-election to a sixth full term in office. The senator originally claimed the seat in a 1992 special election and won her first six-year term two years later.

Sen. Feinstein, who is 89 years old, was first elected to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1969 and became board president in 1978. Later that year, she succeeded then Mayor George Moscone (D) after his tragic assassination. Feinstein would then win election to the position of mayor and serve a total of nine years. She lost the 1988 governor’s race to then-Sen. Pete Wilson (R) but rebounded to win the Senate seat four years later.

Two Democratic House members, Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) had both announced their Senate candidacies weeks before the incumbent made public her own retirement decision.

Texas: Sen. Cruz Seeks Re-Election, No Presidential Run — Two-term Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) announced that he is fully committed to seeking re-election to his current position and will not enter the 2024 presidential contest. Under Texas law, it would have been permissible for Sen. Cruz to simultaneously run for both offices, but he has chosen to concentrate on winning another senatorial term. In 2018, he defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) only 51-48 percent in a race many thought the senator might lose. His focus on re-election suggests that we will see a more aggressive Senate campaign in this election cycle.

At this point no major Democrats have yet come forward to challenge Sen. Cruz. The party leadership would like to see Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) enter the statewide campaign, but with Allred now holding a safe House seat, his risking the chances of making a statewide bid lessen.

House

CO-3: Re-Match on Tap — Aspen Democratic former City Councilman Adam Frisch, who held Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) to the closest victory in any House race (546 vote margin), announced Wednesday that he will return to seek a re-match with the two-term congresswoman.

Frisch, however, already has Democratic primary opposition. Late last week, veterinarian and former congressional candidate Debby Burnett announced her candidacy, but she faces a difficult road to deny Frisch renomination after his strong general election performance. It is likely we will see another close general election here in 2024.

Governor

Mississippi: New Poll Finds Gov. Reeves Trailing — A late January 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial poll, for the first time, shows Gov. Tate Reeves falling behind Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley in a head-to-head ballot test question. Tulchin Research, polling for the Southern Poverty Law Center and the Southern Majority IE PAC (Jan. 21-25; 500 projected likely Mississippi voters; live interview, email & text) projects Presley, a cousin to the late singing legend Elvis Presley, pulling ahead of Gov. Reeves, 47-43 percent.

An earlier January poll, from Siena College (Jan. 1-12; 821 registered Mississippi voters), however, posted Gov. Reeves to a 43-39 percent edge. The closeness of the two early polls project that we will likely see a hard-fought gubernatorial campaign conducted in the Magnolia State later this year.

New Hampshire Gov. Sununu Testing Waters for Presidential Run; Senate Challenger in Nebraska; New Challenger for Rep. Boebert; Candidates for House and Gov Races

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 10, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Files Super PAC as Prelude to Potential Candidacy — Previously indicating that he is interested in exploring a presidential bid, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) has formed a Super PAC entitled the “Live Free or Die PAC,” which will allow funds to be raised in order to test the political waters.

Gov. Sununu is not a fan of former President Donald Trump, yet ironically, he and other less known candidates who enter the race increase the chances that the former president will be able to build a plurality coalition large enough to win the Republican nomination — a la what occurred in 2016.

Senate

Nebraska: New Sen. Ricketts Drawing Potential GOP Challenger — Before Cornhusker State Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) was appointed to replace resigned Sen. Ben Sasse (R) on Jan. 12, former gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster indicated he would consider launching a primary against the eventual appointed incumbent. Now, he appears to be doubling down on that comment, again saying he is seriously considering developing a 2024 Senate campaign.

Herbster lost the 2022 Republican primary to now-Gov. Jim Pillen largely with then-Gov. Ricketts’ substantial help. Former President Trump supported Herbster in the primary, but the endorsement came before several women came forth to accuse the agri-businessman of sexual harassment. Though Trump did not rescind the endorsement, his support was not enough to overcome the Pillen-Ricketts team.

House

CO-3: New Rep. Boebert Challenger Comes Forward — Veterinarian Debby Burnett (D), who filed to run against Colorado Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt) in 2022 but was disqualified from the ballot, is again filing to run in 2024. Though Burnett no doubt will qualify for the Democratic primary in the coming election, she is likely to fall well behind 2022 nominee Adam Frisch, who came within 546 votes of unseating Rep. Boebert. Frisch is indicating that he is likely to run again and will almost certainly have the local Democratic Party’s support.

IN-5: Potential Candidates Begin to Stir — Since two-term central Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz’s (R-Noblesville) retirement announcement at the end of her current term caught virtually everyone by surprise, potential candidates are now beginning to stir. The first to indicate she is interested in making the open seat race is former congressional aide Megan Savage (R), a former chief of staff to retired 5th District Congresswoman Susan Brooks (R).

Other potential candidates include state Sen. Scott Baldwin (R-Noblesville), former state Sen. John Ruckelshaus, and former state Treasurer Kelly Mitchell (R). A crowded Republican field is expected to emerge in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+22.

Governor

West Virginia: Ag Commissioner to Stay Put — As more individuals begin to become candidates for the open West Virginia governor’s race in 2024, one prospective contender who will remain in his current position is Agriculture Commissioner Kent Leonhardt (R) as his statement Wednesday made clear.

In the GOP gubernatorial race are Secretary of State Mac Warner, state Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston) — son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) — businessman Chris Miller — son of Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington) — farmer Terri Bradshaw, and preschool owner Rashida Yost. No Democrats have yet announced. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but may run for US Senate.