By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore
Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears to be a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters’ poll (Jan. 26-27; 850 likely Florida 2026 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.
It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.
Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state’s conservative voter base.
Gov. DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds’ current standing in the 2026 Governor’s campaign as entirely positive. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, DeSantis’ opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.
The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire new slate of statewide officials.
With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida’s new Attorney General.
With Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lieutenant Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor’s race.
Furthermore, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle’s 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new state CFO.
The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Rep. Cord Byrd in 2022.
Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.
Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.
Florida voter registration largely tells the story. At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals according to the Florida Secretary of State’s official voter registration statistical report. The most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, finds not only Republicans having more party members, but they hold an astonishing 1,156,082 individual advantage over the Florida Democrats. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the preceding four years.
While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to all of the statewide public officials coming via his appointments.