Tag Archives: Gov. Ron DeSantis

Florida: Donalds vs. DeSantis

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 17, 2025

Governor

Florida First Lady, Casey DeSantis / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The first poll testing a potentially major battle between two national conservative movement factions was just released.

The impending open Florida Republican gubernatorial primary could feature the state’s First Lady, Casey DeSantis, whose incumbent husband Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek a third term, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) who already carries President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

At this point, Rep. Donalds is an announced gubernatorial candidate while Ms. DeSantis has yet to declare her intentions. Gov. DeSantis, however, has publicly hinted that she is at least considering running.

The Fabrizio Lee & Associates research firm went into the field to provide an early read on such a race. Their poll (Feb. 26-27 and released March 10; 600 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Donalds jumping out to a slight 34-30 percent lead over Ms. DeSantis. An additional three percent would support Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, who is also a potential GOP gubernatorial candidate.

The results get even more interesting when the respective endorsements are filtered. When the respondents are informed that President Trump publicly supports Rep. Donalds, the ballot test soars to 45-23 percent in the Congressman’s favor.

The contest changes when further information is shared. While it is certainly not surprising that Gov. DeSantis would endorse his wife but when the respondents are told that he will, the ballot test flips. The altered result projects Ms. DeSantis moving ahead of Rep. Donalds, 35-33 percent.

The caveat relating to the previous push question is the respondents were told of Gov. DeSantis’ endorsement of his wife prior to being informed of President Trump’s support for Rep. Donalds, and this situation is highlighted in the Fabrizio Lee analysis.

When all of the endorsement information is presented to the sampling universe, Rep. Donalds reassumes the lead at 38-28 percent over Ms. DeSantis with Simpson increasing to five percent support. Therefore, it is this last ballot test that should be considered the benchmark for future monitoring of this proposed race.

Whether this campaign actually transpires is another question. Ms. DeSantis has certainly not committed to running and is likely a long way from making a final decision. The 2026 Florida primary is not scheduled until Aug. 18, with a state candidate filing deadline of June 12. Therefore, much time remains to contemplate whether she will become an official candidate.

Certainly, the DeSantis decision involves more than calculating victory chances for the First Lady to succeed her husband. Since Ron DeSantis has national ambitions, the political analysis will involve just how much risk the family wants to assume in entering a campaign where a DeSantis could lose to a Trump-endorsed opponent.

At this point, the early presidential political climate doesn’t appear to positively favor a return appearance for Gov. DeSantis despite what should be his appealing record of accomplishment for a conservative voter base.

Since Vice President J.D. Vance is already considered the leading prospect to succeed President Trump as the next Republican nominee, he will be in an extremely strong position to capture the party nomination unless things go badly for the Administration toward the end of their current term.

Therefore, the 2028 presidential playing field will also factor heavily in deciding whether Casey DeSantis runs for Governor in 2026. In any event, we can expect to see the Donalds-DeSantis political drama continue over the next several months.

Rep. Donalds Atop New Gov Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new Florida Republican primary poll suggests that three-term Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) holds an early commanding lead over selected potential 2026 candidates who will compete for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis (R).

Though no major candidate has formally announced for Governor, Rep. Donalds appears to be a definitive bet to run. The Victory Insights research firm commissioned a late January Republican voters’ poll (Jan. 26-27; 850 likely Florida 2026 Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system and text) and found Rep. Donalds holding a substantial 33-4-3-1 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson, and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Not included was former Rep. Matt Gaetz who, from time to time, has indicated he would run for Governor in 2026.

It has now become unlikely that Lt. Gov. Nunez will become a gubernatorial candidate. This week it was announced that she will resign her position to become the interim President of Florida International University.

Obviously, this survey provides good news for Rep. Donalds who, despite being a relatively junior House member in terms of seniority, is a frequent guest on a variety of Fox News programs. Therefore, he has become well known to his state’s conservative voter base.

Gov. DeSantis may not view Rep. Donalds’ current standing in the 2026 Governor’s campaign as entirely positive. Donalds is very close to President Trump and endorsed him over his own Governor in the 2024 presidential primaries. Therefore, DeSantis’ opportunity to recast the statewide elected officials via appointment could be his way of preparing a more favored candidate for entering the political battle that will determine his own successor.

The Florida political scene will soon change because Gov. DeSantis has the unusual opportunity of appointing an entire new slate of statewide officials.

With Marco Rubio being confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis appointed state Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace him in the Senate. This allowed Gov. DeSantis to appoint his own chief of staff, James Uthmeier, as Florida’s new Attorney General.

With Nunez resigning, the Governor will now appoint a new Lieutenant Governor, and this could be the key person to watch in the unfolding open Governor’s race.

Furthermore, the state’s Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy Patronis (R), won the special congressional primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the Panhandle’s 1st District, and he is a lock to clinch the April 1 special election. Since he was running for a different office, Florida election law dictates that an individual must resign his or her current elective position. Patronis has indicated his resignation will occur on March 31. At that point, Gov. DeSantis will appoint a new state CFO.

The Secretary of State is already a gubernatorial appointed position, and Gov. DeSantis chose then-state Rep. Cord Byrd in 2022.

Once the Governor completes the appointment process, he will have chosen every statewide official. This will certainly affect the 2026 statewide elections since all of the incumbents will be DeSantis appointees as opposed to having elected status.

Since Florida has evolved into a strong Republican state in the past few elections, the next GOP gubernatorial nominee will now be rated as a strong favorite as opposed to being cast in a toss-up race.

Florida voter registration largely tells the story. At the time of the 2020 election, Democrats had a partisan voter registration edge over Republicans of 106,986 individuals according to the Florida Secretary of State’s official voter registration statistical report. The most current figures, released Jan. 10, 2025, finds not only Republicans having more party members, but they hold an astonishing 1,156,082 individual advantage over the Florida Democrats. Thus, we have seen a net Republican registration gain of 1,263,068 persons in just the preceding four years.

While Gov. DeSantis will leave his position at the beginning of 2027, his influence over who will take his place could now become even greater thanks to all of the statewide public officials coming via his appointments.

Florida’s Special Primaries Today

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Special Primaries

Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz | Former Florida Rep. Mike Waltz

Electorates in two vacant Florida US House districts will choose nominees today, taking the first step in filling congressional positions related to President Donald Trump selecting certain House members to join his Administration.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz immediately resigned from his 1st District House seat when President Trump announced his nomination for the US Attorney General’s position. Though it quickly became clear that the US Senate would not confirm him to the position, Gaetz still decided to remain on the outside despite winning re-election to the House in November.

Trump also chose 6th District US Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as his National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz was able to resign from the House on Jan. 20 and immediately begin serving in his new position.

Gov. Ron DeSantis, upon the President announcing his appointments, moved quickly to schedule the replacement special elections and combine them on one political calendar. Therefore, despite Waltz being out of Congress for only eight days, the special primaries to replace him and Gaetz are scheduled for today.

The 1st District lies in the western section of Florida’s northern Panhandle and is anchored in the Gulf of America cities of Pensacola, Navarre, Ft. Walton Beach, and many other small beach communities. The 1st is Florida’s safest Republican seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+38. The Down Ballot political blog ranks FL-1 as the 39th safest district in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, the winner of today’s special Republican primary will easily hold the seat in the April 1 special general election.

Vying for the party nomination are 10 candidates, but one stands alone as the clear favorite. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, though a resident of Panama City in the state’s 2nd District, is the definitive leader heading into today’s vote. He enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Gov. DeSantis. He is expected to easily win the primary tonight and join the Congress in April. His strongest initial competitors dropped out of the race once Patronis secured his top endorsements.

Assuming victory tonight, Patronis will then face gun control activist Gay Valimont in the special general election. Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

The situation in the state’s 6th District is just as clear. There, state Sen. Randy Fine is the prohibitive favorite to win today’s special Republican primary. Like Patronis, Sen. Fine enjoys the endorsements of President Trump, Sen. Scott, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and many more elected area officials. He faces only two minor Republican opponents in today’s election.

The 6th District lies on the Sunshine State’s Atlantic coast and is anchored in the cities of Daytona Beach, Ormond Beach, and Palm Coast on the eastern shore, along with the inland communities of Belleview and De Land.

FL-6 is slightly less Republican than CD-1 but still rates a R+28 rating from the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot statisticians rank FL-6 as the 105th safest Republican House seat.

Three Democrats are vying for the party nomination, but tonight’s winner will be little more than a sacrificial lamb in the April 1 special general election.

Today represents the first step in filling the two Florida US House vacancies. In April, we can expect Patronis and Fine to be joining the body, thus giving Speaker Johnson slightly more partisan leeway for some critical votes later in the congressional session.

DeSantis Appoints Ashley Moody

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

Senate

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody

With Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R) confirmation as US Secretary of State virtually assured, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made his announcement yesterday as to who will succeed the Senator when he officially resigns.

As expected, based upon recent predictions, Gov. DeSantis selected state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to assume the Senate seat once the position officially becomes vacant. President-Elect Donald Trump will nominate his cabinet choices once he is sworn into office; when certain confirmation hearings are completed, we can expect the Senate to take swift action regarding key confirmation votes.

Sen. Rubio is expected to sail through the process, since he is a well known figure to all Senators. Once he is officially confirmed, the new Secretary of State will resign the Senate seat and Moody will likely be on hand to take the oath of office for her new position. This would mean no lapse in Florida Senate representation.

The same cannot be said for the similar situation in Ohio. Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance resigned from the Senate on Jan. 10, but Gov. Mike DeWine has yet to name a replacement.

It’s possible that the Governor is having trouble filling the seat. Lt. Gov. Jon Husted appears to be his first choice, but stories continue to surface indicating that Husted wants to remain in Ohio to fight in a tough open 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.

A story appeared midweek that former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy met with the Governor last weekend to discuss the Senate position. This is a surprising development, since Ramaswamy, citing his position as co-director of President-Elect Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), withdrew his name from Senate consideration weeks ago.

Though the chosen individual will literally be handed a Senate seat, the long-term path is not without challenges. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who new Sen. Bernie Moreno (R) unseated in November, says he is not done with public service and is viewed as a possible 2026 contender vying for the right to serve the balance of the current term.

Brown raised a whopping $103 million for his losing 2024 effort. Considering his long record in Ohio politics, any appointed Senator would be forced to conduct an expensive major campaign versus a very formidable opponent.

Even if successful in 2026, the new Senator would again face the voters in 2028 when this particular seat next comes in-cycle. Therefore, whomever is chosen can expect to be in full campaign mode for a four-year period.

Attorney General Moody is close to Gov. DeSantis and has twice proven she can win a Florida statewide election. In 2018, Moody, a former circuit judge, was elected Attorney General with 52.1 percent of the general election vote. In 2022, she increased her vote share to 60.6 percent. As was explained regarding the eventual new Ohio Senator, Moody will run to fill the balance of her new term in 2026, and then have the opportunity of campaigning for a full six-year term in 2028.

Additionally, Moody will apparently face significant opposition in the next Republican primary. Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) said earlier in the week that he will enter the Senate primary regardless of whomever Gov. DeSantis appoints.

The current spate of Florida political musical chairs is allowing Gov. DeSantis, who cannot seek a third term in 2026, to continue shaping a large segment of his state’s future government. Not only did he pick Moody for the Senate, but he will now be able to choose a replacement Attorney General.

Furthermore, with former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) leaving his 1st District seat, current Florida CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) entered the special election field and is widely viewed as the favorite. Under Florida state law, any officeholder running for a different position must resign his current post.

Since the 1st District special election is scheduled for April 1, Petronis announced that he will leave his current position on March 31. Regardless if Petronis wins or loses the congressional seat, the statewide CFO position will be open at the beginning of April, and Gov. DeSantis will then have the opportunity of filling that position, as well.

Looking ahead, the state of Florida will experience a period of significant political change over the course of the next two years, and Gov. DeSantis will have the power to choose his allies to lead the state long after he leaves office.

Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

The Case for Florida’s Under-Polling

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 3, 2024

Polling

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

The latest Florida research surveys may not be correctly depicting the Sunshine State’s political situation; recent history indicates they may be underestimating Republican strength.

We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), and now a new St. Pete Polls survey finds that 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) is trailing her new Democratic general election opponent.

Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election.

Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, but Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns.

For example, in the 2022 election, Gov. Ron DeSantis, where the Real Clear Politics website ranked his campaign status as just “Lean Republican,” was viewed to be in a much tighter contest than what the final results revealed. In that election, Gov. DeSantis won with a 19.4 percent victory margin, 59.4 – 40.0 percent, over former governor and ex-Congressman Charlie Crist (D).

The polling average, however, from the middle of October through the Nov. 8 election, according to the Real Clear Politics’ polling archives, only detected a 12.2 percent average advantage. Therefore, the cumulative polling understated the governor’s strength by approximately seven percentage points.

We saw a similar pattern in the 2022 US Senate race. There, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), at an approximate $30 million deficit opposite his general election opponent, then-Congresswoman Val Demings (D), saw a favorable polling mean average of 8.1 percentage points from the seven polls conducted from Oct. 1, 2022, through the November election. Sen. Rubio’s actual margin of victory was 16.4 points (57.7 – 41.3 percent), meaning the polling average proved 8.3 points below the Republican’s actual voting performance.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an undercount of just over seven percentage points.

One reason the Florida polls may be missing the GOP voting strength factor is how fast the state’s population and electorate is changing. At the end of the 2018 election cycle, the year Scott was elected to the Senate by just 10,033 votes from almost 8.2 million ballots cast, the Democrats held a 37.1 to 35.2 percent voter registration edge over Republicans, which translated into a raw number spread of 257,175 individuals.

Today, as an indicator of the drastic change that has occurred from that point in time to the present (Aug. 14th Florida voter registration report), the Republicans now hold an advantage of almost 1 million registrants (exact figure: 996,795).

It remains to be seen if the 2024 ballot test polling follows the same pattern that we saw in 2022, but odds are strong that the current data is again underestimating the Republican candidates’ actual strength.