By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024
2024 Election
US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.
While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.
• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.
In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.
The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.
• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.
Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.
Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.
The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.
• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.
WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.
Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.
Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.
On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.
The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.
• Gov. Steve Bullock: As has been expected for some time, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock (D) officially announced his presidential effort this week, becoming the 23rd Democratic candidate. Bullock made the argument that he will be an effective national candidate because he’s won two elections in a conservative state and has been able to earn legislative achievements, like Medicaid expansion, in negotiating with Republican leaders.