Tag Archives: Vivek Ramaswamy

Ohio: Ramaswamy In, Trump Endorses

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Businessman and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy (R) released his official Ohio Governor’s campaign website at the end of last week, thus kicking off the contest to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R) and yesterday he received a big boost.

The Republican primary race already appears to be evolving into a two-way battle between Ramaswamy, leading in all early nomination campaign polling, and two-term Attorney General Dave Yost.

A newly released Yost campaign survey, however, suggests the race could eventually tighten, and that an endorsement from President Donald Trump for one of the candidates could prove determinative. Yesterday, the President gave Ramaswamy his “complete and total endorsement.”

The National Public Affairs polling organization conducted an early February Ohio survey for the Yost campaign (Feb. 2-5; 602 likely Ohio Republican primary voters; live interview and text) and, like other research studies, found Ramaswamy posting a major lead, 46-18 percent.

Earlier, WPA Intelligence (Jan. 28-30; 600 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) saw Ramaswamy holding a 57-28 percent advantage over Yost. The Fabrizio Lee & Associates firm also tested the state in late January (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio Republican primary voters) and projected the Ohio entrepreneur topping AG Yost with a 52-18 percent margin while the since withdrawn State Treasurer Robert Sprague posted two percent preference. (Mr. Sprague, term-limited in the coming election as Ohio’s Treasurer, quickly dropped out of the Governor’s race and instead entered the open Secretary of State’s contest endorsing Ramaswamy as he exited.)

While all of the released public polls basically arrive at the same conclusion, NPA provided further information in their survey analysis that attempts to cast the largely uniform results in a different political light.

According to NPA partner Justin Clark, “our findings indicate that this early advantage is a ‘sugar high’ driven by a pre-inauguration media saturation that led to high name ID and perceived association with President Trump. That said, even at this high point of public opinion, polling support for Ramaswamy is incredibly soft. Beyond the temporal component of his losing the “sugar high” after quitting the Trump administration before it even started, the survey is clear that voters align closest to the candidate that receives the backing of President Trump … whoever that candidate is.”

We now know who Trump will endorse and it’s Ramaswamy. The Yost pollsters clearly understand the impact of presidential support in the Republican primary as their polling analysis explains.

After a series of unreleased push questions that constituted what NPA described as the “informed ballot” brought Yost within one point of Ramaswamy, the horse race question was then asked to determine what effect Trump endorsing the Attorney General would have on the primary election. If such were the case, Yost would pull ahead of Ramaswamy, 42-22 percent; hence, the power of an early Trump endorsement.

In terms of the favorability index, President Trump maintains an 82-16 percent positive to negative ratio and Vice President and former Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance scores an almost identical 81:16 percent. Ramaswamy posts a 64:15 percent score, which is better than newly elected Sen. Bernie Moreno (65:22 percent), and Attorney General Yost (53:14 percent), though all the sampled Republican primary voters viewed each tested figure very favorably.

Clearly, Ramaswamy wants to deliver an early knockout blow, and it appears he has the assets to make that happen. With a big lead in early polling and, as of yesterday, Trump’s endorsement, it appears the former presidential candidate has the package he needs to secure the Republican nomination. With that, he will have the inside track for the general election in a state that is trending more Republican.

The only Democrat to so far announce for Governor is former Ohio Health Department director Amy Acton. Other, and likely stronger, potential candidates are waiting in the wings. It is unclear if any or all of the following would make a gubernatorial run, but some from this group are likely to try.

Those Democrats mentioned as considering a bid for Governor are: former Senator Sherrod Brown, Cincinnati Mayor Aftab Pureval, Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb, Columbus Mayor Andy Ginther, state Supreme Court Justice and former Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and former Congressman, 2016 presidential candidate, and 2022 US Senate nominee Tim Ryan.

Ramaswamy Up Big in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Surprising new data was just released regarding the open Ohio Governor’s race, thus giving more credibility to Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed campaign.

A late January Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey of the Ohio Republican electorate (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead.

Ramaswamy just resigned from President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he was serving as co-chair with Elon Musk, in order to return to Ohio with the reported intent of embarking on a gubernatorial campaign.

In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2 percent margin, respectively, according to the Fabrizio Lee results.

The Governor’s race has been at the heart of the Ohio political spectrum and figured prominently in the selection of a Senator to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.

Gov. Mike DeWine chose Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) for the Senate seat, though it apparently took some convincing before he accepted the position. Husted had been planning for years to run for Governor when DeWine’s final term comes to an end. Therefore, the 2026 election looked to begin with a Republican primary battle between Husted and Yost, which was expected to be hard fought and potentially divisive.

The open Senate seat drastically changed the picture. With Sen. Husted having to run to fill the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full term in 2028, he is out of the Governor’s race. This gave AG Yost and State Treasurer Robert Sprague the opportunity of battling in the GOP primary for the right to succeed Gov. DeWine as the party nominee.

The Ramaswamy potential entry changes the political outlook yet again, especially with this new data posting him to a very large and surprising lead. Independently wealthy, Ramaswamy will have as much money as he needs to run a strong campaign. Therefore, we can expect an intense GOP primary battle.

At this point, the only Democrat to so far announce her gubernatorial candidacy is former Ohio Health Department director and physician Amy Acton.

It is likely others will soon follow. Those Democrats mentioned as potential statewide contenders are the mayors of Ohio’s three largest cities: Andy Ginther in Columbus, Cleveland’s Justin Bibb, and Cincinnati chief executive Aftab Pureval. State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and ex-Congressman and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan are also frequently mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates.

Though Ohio is voting more Republican in recent elections – President Trump carried the state three times with an average win margin of 9.1 percent and Ohio has now elected two Republican Senators, for example; the Democrats are still expected to make a maximum effort to convert this office in 2026.

The Senate race will obviously also factor into the statewide political picture. The major question surrounds the status of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who was defeated for re-election in November. While he has been more closely associated with running again for the Senate since there will now be a special election to fill the balance of the Husted term, there is also some speculation that he could run for Governor.

Sen. Brown had always been viewed as someone who could attract Republican votes even though he is unabashedly liberal. That aura was certainly punctured when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno in November by just over 3.6 percentage points after spending $103 million just through his individual campaign committee. Despite his loss, it is clear that Brown would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate either for the Senate or Governor.

Ohio will again be a major political battleground, and we can expect to see a great deal of activity coming from the Buckeye State throughout the 2026 election cycle.

Ohio’s Husted Appointed to Senate

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025

Senate

Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) / FoxNews photo

On Friday, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) made his long-awaited announcement as to who will replace Vice President J.D. Vance in the US Senate. The Governor chose Ohio Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R).

Vance resigned his Senate seat on Jan. 10, but DeWine waited until the 17th to make the appointment announcement, yet it was apparent from the start that his first choice was Husted. The question became whether the Lieutenant Governor would accept the appointment.

Husted has been preparing a run for Governor for more than seven years dating back to his time as Ohio’s Secretary of State. In 2018, Husted ran for Governor along with then-Attorney General DeWine and then-Lt. Gov. Mary Taylor.

The three-way Republican nomination race looked close as the candidates headed to the May primary. It appeared that Taylor had a chance to win by moving to the right of both DeWine and Husted, thus making them split the centrist/moderate Republican vote and allowing her to claim victory with plurality support.

Seeing this scenario as a real possibility, Husted went to DeWine suggesting a deal. He would agree to drop out of the Governor’s race and endorse DeWine if the latter would endorse Husted for Lieutenant Governor and the two would run as a team. DeWine accepted and both men would go onto claim the party nomination for their respective offices and then successfully win two succeeding general elections.

As part of the plan, Husted would run for Governor when DeWine served his legally allowed two terms, meaning the Lieutenant Governor would seek the state’s top position in 2026. As Gov. DeWine mentioned in the appointment video, he and the new Senator-Designate have been very close during their time in office and truly operated as a team, just as Husted suggested when offering DeWine the 2018 deal.

The Vance election as Vice President changed the paradigm as did the emergence of Attorney General Dave Yost, who has also already been campaigning for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. Before the Vance national election, it appeared the two, Husted and Yost, were headed toward a very rough 2026 GOP gubernatorial primary battle.

The Senate seat opening changed the situation since appointing one of the two would avoid a potentially bloody primary. Both men, however, indicated they wanted to remain in the Governor’s race. The delay in announcing the appointment was sending signals that DeWine was having trouble convincing Husted to accept the Senate seat but if such were the case, the situation has now been obviously solved.

The downside to the Senate appointment is that whoever was granted the position would have to run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and then again in 2028 for a full six-year stint. This would mean continual fundraising over a four-year period in a large state that will feature expensive campaigns requiring spending in several expensive media markets.

Additionally, the Democrats will make a major play for the seat especially in 2026, and possibly in the person of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who just lost in November but is claiming his career in elective politics has not drawn to a conclusion. In the 2024 election cycle, Brown attracted a whopping $103 million for his unsuccessful re-election bid and while losing still he proved eminently effective on the fundraising circuit. Ex-Sen. Brown attempting a comeback would mean that Husted would face a major opponent in the ’26 general election.

The appointment, however, may not yet have avoided a messy primary. Over the weekend, Gov. DeWine held a meeting with former presidential candidate and Ohio resident Vivek Ramaswamy, ostensibly about the Senate appointment.

Post-meeting and the Husted announcement, it is being reported that Ramaswamy will not continue with the Trump Administration and has exited his position as co-chair of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Ramaswamy, instead, is reported to be mulling a run for Governor.

If so, then AG Yost will not have a free ride in the Governor’s race and again be in the situation of facing a major Republican opponent who, in this case, has virtually unlimited personal funds.

Husted will now be sworn into the Senate, along with Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) who will take the Florida Senate seat of Marco Rubio. Last night, Rubio was confirmed as President Trump’s Secretary of State.

Regardless of which candidates ultimately decide to run for what Ohio office, the Buckeye State promises to feature some of the hottest campaigns in the upcoming national election cycle.

Replacing Rubio; Vance Replacement Considerations in Ohio; Two California House Seats Called

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R)

Florida: Speculation About Rubio Replacement — Rumors are being quashed that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) would either appoint himself or his wife, Casey DeSantis, to replace Sen. Marco Rubio (R) when he resigns to become Secretary of State.

With President-Elect Donald Trump already selecting three US House members for appointments, including Florida Congressman Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) as National Security Advisor as well as Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) as the nation’s next Attorney General, none of the state’s 19 other Republican House members will be considered for the Senate appointment since the new House majority is expected to be small. Rather, topping the list of potential appointees appear to be Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez, state Attorney General Ashley Moody, and former Florida House Speaker Jose Oliva. Gaetz immediately announced his resignation from the House after President-Elect Donald Trump’s controversial announcement that he has appointed Gaetz as AG. With another House member being chosen for the new Administration, and the majority not yet being completely cemented, the Republicans may be flirting with political “gimbal lock” that could potentially lead to the Democrats gaining control of the body. Much more to come on this developing situation.

Gov. DeSantis will fill the vacancy when Sen. Rubio resigns after the latter’s confirmation as Secretary of State. The new senator will then run to fill the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Sen. Rubio was re-elected to a third term in 2022.

Ohio: Ramaswamy Out of Senate Consideration — Former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who President-Elect Trump appointed along with Elon Musk to head a new official government efficiency operation — known as DOGE, or the Department of Government Efficiency — confirmed that he is no longer under consideration to replace Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance in the US Senate.

Vance will resign from the Senate at some point before being sworn in as vice president on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement to serve the balance of the current term. Since Vance was elected in 2022, the new appointed senator will run to complete the current term in 2026, and then again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House

CA-27: Democrat Whitesides Unseats Rep. Garcia — Ex-Virgin Atlantic CEO George Whitesides has defeated three-term Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 51.3 – 48.7 percent margin in the state’s 27th District, which is fully contained in northern Los Angeles County. The projection was made Tuesday, and Rep. Garcia conceded the election.

The result is not particularly surprising. The California Citizens Redistricting Commission members increased the Democratic base in this district making it a D+8 as opposed to a D+5 under the previous map. The ratings are taken from the FiveThirtyEight data organization that profiles all 435 US House seats. The Down Ballot political blog statisticians ranked CA-27 as the fourth most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Garcia first won a differently configured district, numbered CA-25, in a 2020 special election. He was re-elected in the former 25th later that year, and then won again in new District 27 two years ago. In all three previous elections, Garcia defeated former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D).

CA-47: Dems Hold Open Seat — Democratic state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine) recorded a come-from-behind victory over former state assemblyman and 2022 congressional general election finalist Scott Baugh (R) in California’s open 47th District with a 50.9 – 49.1 percent victory margin according to a projection made Tuesday. Republicans had hopes of converting this seat from the Democratic column, but the presidential election year turnout model in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+6 was too much for Baugh to overcome.

The Min victory means only five uncalled races remain, four of which lie in California. The current House count now stands at 219R – 211D. The 47th District was open because incumbent Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked the seat to run unsuccessfully for the US Senate.

Surprising New Hampshire Numbers

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024

President

New Hampshire citizens at a town hall meeting at Hillside Middle School in Manchester. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

New Hampshire Polling Snapshot: Two Candidates Tied — The American Research Group has released companion New Hampshire primary polls the results of which are a bit surprising for both parties.

The ARG survey (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; 406 Republican voters; 194 Independent voters; live interview) sees former President Donald Trump and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the Granite State primary on Jan. 23. Both candidates were drawing 40 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and now-ex presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy were attracting only four percent apiece.

New Hampshire has been Trump’s weakest polling state among the pre-Super Tuesday primary and caucus entities. In the ARG polling series, Haley’s support has grown from 29 percent in their Dec. 20 survey to 33 percent in the Jan. 3 version, and now 40 percent. Trump, however, has also gained growing support indicated by his polling progression from 33, to 37, to now 40 percent.

ARG is the only pollster to show the race this close. The recent St. Anselm College, Emerson College, CNN/University of New Hampshire, and the Suffolk University/USA Today surveys project Trump with leads of 14, 16, 7, and 20 points, respectively.

The Democrats — The survey research firm also tested the Democratic presidential primary in a series of four polls beginning with their release on Dec. 20. The current study (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 452 Democratic voters; 148 Independent voters; live interview), finds US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) posting his best standing against President Joe Biden. According to the results, Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Rep. Phillips 58-28 percent, with author Marianne Williamson drawing three percent.

Based upon ARG’s four-poll series, Phillips has consistently increased his support from 17 percent on Dec. 20 to 21, 26, and now 28 percent in the Jan. 15 poll. The congressman has been advertising heavily in New Hampshire. In those same polls, President Biden increased his share from 51 to 58 percent, but has remained stagnant in the two most recent surveys.

Other pollsters don’t see Rep. Phillips as strong. In data released Jan. 9 and 11, Suffolk University/USA Today projects the president holding a whopping 64-6 percent lead over Phillips. The CNN/University of New Hampshire ballot test results agree. They record a 69-7 percent Biden advantage. Within this group only the latest Emerson College poll finds Rep. Phillips breaking into double digits. EC calculates a 49-16 percent spread in the president’s favor.

Similar to Haley on the Republican side, Rep. Phillips actually leads Biden among the Independent voters who plan to participate in the Democratic primary according to ARG. The Independent/Democrats break 46-32 percent for Phillips. The registered Democrats support President Biden, 67-22 percent.

With the Jan. 23 New Hampshire primary looming, we shortly will see the impact of Biden choosing to bypass the state because the Granite State did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Because of that decision, voters wanting to support the president must now write in his name on the ballot.

The question remains as to whether Haley and Phillips getting close to Trump and Biden in their respective primary races in New Hampshire would have much of an effect upon the national nomination campaign. Could the state be the starting point for new trends, or will more favorable challenger results only prove a blip on the path to convincing national primary victories for both President Biden and former President Trump?

Chances are good that the latter scenario will occur. New Hampshire results don’t tend to be particularly reliable national predictors. For the Republicans since 1976, the non-incumbent winner of the Granite State primary has gone on to win the GOP nomination just four times. For the Democrats, they too see only four of the New Hampshire winners carrying through to become the party’s national standard bearer.

At this point, particularly when looking at other state polls around the country, it appears that the New Hampshire results are more likely an outlier than a new trend setter. Even so, we may be primed to see some interesting results come Tuesday.

GOP Presidential Field Narrows to Three; Second Redistricting Map Released in Louisiana; MD-2 Primary Opponent Challenges Incumbent

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks with supporters at a “Countdown to Caucus” campaign rally at the Country Lane Lodge in Adel, Iowa. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 17, 2024

President

Candidates: And Then There Were Three — After former President Donald Trump’s victory in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, two more presidential candidates, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, suspended their campaigns.

Prominent candidates who previously dropped their bids are former Vice President Mike Pence, ex-New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. The moves essentially leave the presidential field to Mr. Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Of the exiting candidates, Ramaswamy and Burgum both have endorsed Trump. No other former candidate to date has issued an endorsement.

New Hampshire: ARG Sees Trump & Haley Tied — A third installment of the American Research Group survey series (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; 406 Republican voters; 194 Independent voters; live interview) sees Trump and Haley now tied as the candidates turn the corner toward the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23. Both candidates were drawing 40 percent support. DeSantis and now-ex presidential candidate Ramaswamy fell well back to four percent apiece. Clearly New Hampshire is the only pre-Super Tuesday state where Trump fails to dominate.

New Hampshire: A Biden Warning Sign — The American Research Group also ran a companion poll for the Democratic presidential primary as it was surveying the Republican side. This study (Jan. 12-15; 600 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 452 Democratic voters; 148 Independent voters; live interview) finds US Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) posting his best standing against President Joe Biden of any poll. According to these results, Biden, clearly identified as a write-in candidate on the questionnaire, would lead Rep. Phillips 58-28 percent, with author Marianne Williamson drawing three percent.

The New Hampshire primary is Jan. 23, but Biden chose to bypass the state because New Hampshire did not agree to the proposed Democratic National Committee primary calendar changes. Therefore, voters wanting to support the current president will have to write in his name.

House

Louisiana: Second Redistricting Map Released — On the first day of the special legislative session for congressional redistricting and other issues, state Rep. Mike Echols (R-Monroe) released a map that was seen as potentially the basis for an eventual final draw. Under the introduced plan, Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) would likely find himself as the odd man out as a new Baton Rouge-anchored 6th District that would be designed to elect an African American representative. The original map was sent back to the legislature for the purpose of increasing minority representation.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians have already released their calculations of all six districts in the proposed plan. Instead of the current 5R-1D plan, we would see a 4R-2D map, with the 6th District going from a partisan lean of 66.0R – 31.9D to one that favors the Democrats to the degree of 56.3D – 41.8R. Rep. Graves would be placed in the 5th District with fellow Republican incumbent Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start). In this map version, Letlow’s current constituency would comprise two-thirds of the new district, thus giving her a major advantage if the two ultimately face each other.

Now, a second plan has been submitted but two points are clear when comparing the two versions.

First, the legislature is clearly complying with the court order to draw a second majority minority seat within the six-member congressional delegation, and second, the targeted GOP House member likely to lose his seat is to make room for the new district is Rep. Graves. Once completed and passed into law, the new court-ordered map will almost assuredly mean a net gain of one seat for the Democrats in the 2024 election.

MD-2: Primary Opponent Emerges for Rep. Ruppersberger — Two-term state Delegate Harry Bhandari (D-Nottingham) announced that he will challenge 11-term US Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) for the Democratic nomination in the May 14 Maryland primary election. Bhandari does not have to risk his seat in the legislature because Maryland awards its state Delegates with four-year terms, and he was re-elected in 2022. Rep. Ruppersberger has yet to announce that he will run for re-election. The Maryland candidate filing deadline is Feb. 9.

MD-2 is a safe Democratic seat. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district as D+11. The Daily Kos Elections statisticians rank the seat as the 62nd most vulnerable in the House Democratic Conference.

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winners, Losers & Runners-Up; California Senate Polling Update; NY-26 Special Election Nominee

Gov. Ron DeSantis celebrates with supporters at a caucus night watch party at the Sheraton West Des Moines Hotel in Iowa. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024

President

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus: Winners, Losers & Runners-Up — The first votes of the presidential campaign have been cast, and former President Donald Trump met expectations last night in the Iowa Caucuses as he became the first non-incumbent candidate to secure a majority of the vote in the state’s history. The Democrats first voted in Iowa back in 1972, with Republicans following in 1976.

It appears he will place first in 98 of the state’s 99 counties, losing apparently by just one vote in Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa. He also won closely, and below 50 percent in Story County, the home of Iowa State University, and in the state’s most populous county, Polk, the home to the capital city of Des Moines. He recorded plurality victories in eight other counties.

At this writing, and mostly in the rural regions, Trump exceeded 60 percent of the vote in 41 counties, and topped 70 percent in eight. His best showing appears to be in Keokuk County, where he recorded 74 percent. There is likely to be some change in these numbers once all of the votes are counted and canvassed.

The battle for second in Iowa is close, as predicted, though it appears that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and not the candidate the media proclaimed had the most momentum, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, finishes second. DeSantis was hovering around the 21 percent mark, some 30 points behind Trump. Haley was further back approaching 19 percent of the caucus votes. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, as polling also predicted, was well back with just under eight percent support. After considering his fourth-place finish, Ramaswamy announced that he was dropping out of the presidential race.

“There is no path for me to be the next president, absent things that we don’t want to see happen in this country,” he said at his Iowa watch party at the Surety Hotel in downtown Des Moines.

“I am so proud of every one of you who have lifted us up,” he said to the crowd. He then announced that he would give his “full endorsement” to Trump. Ramaswamy said he had called Trump to tell him that he was suspending his campaign and would endorse the former president.

Senate

California: Schiff and Porter Lead New Poll — The University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies, a regular California political pollster, released their latest US Senate survey result. This poll, for the Los Angeles Times (Jan. 4-8; 8,199 registered California voters; 4,470 weighted sub-sample; online), again finds Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) leading the crowded field, but with a smaller margin than found in other recent polls.

Baseball great Steve Garvey (R), who had placed second in two December polls, is third here, but still gained support when compared to the previous Berkeley IGS survey (10 percent in October poll; 13 percent in current edition). Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), second in their previous polls, is also second now, but remains stagnant at 17 percent support when compared to the two previous Berkeley IGS studies. Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) remains languishing with single digit support with nine percent preference.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of percentage attained or political party affiliation will advance into the November general election.

House

NY-26: Democrats Choose Special Election Nominee — The local Erie and Niagara County Democratic Party chairmen announced that they have chosen state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as their special election congressional nominee once Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) resigns in early February. Once the seat officially becomes vacant, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will call a special election to fill the seat for the balance of the current term. The Republican chairmen will announce their pick at a later date.

Under New York election procedure, a district’s county chairmen have the power to nominate a special election candidate in lieu of holding a party primary or special district convention.

Nate McMurray, a former western New York local official who ran two close campaigns in the former 27th District that was collapsed in 2021 reapportionment, declared after the announcement naming Sen. Kennedy as the special election Democratic nominee that he will launch a regular Democratic primary challenge against him for the full term.