Category Archives: States

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Democrats Down in All States Requiring Voter Registration With Political Party Affiliation

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Democratic Party

Former President Joe Biden campaigns prior to his election to the presidency in 2020. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

In 31 states, individuals registering to vote must list a political party affiliation to do so, and the latest trends suggest significant partisan changes.

The most stunning pattern when comparing the latest registration numbers with those found from Joe Biden’s victorious presidential election in 2020 is that Democratic preference is down in all 31 party registration states. This does not necessarily mean there are fewer Democratic registered voters in all instances, but their percentage of the entire registered voter universe in each of these states is lower than in 2020.

In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Further research would likely lead to the conclusion that Democrats are attracting fewer younger and new voters when compared with past performance. Additionally, the changes in voter registration preferences may be a key reason as to why ballot test polling has been less accurate than in years past.

Florida is a good example of the polling accuracy factor. In voter registration, we have seen a dramatic shift since 2020. In the Biden year, Democrats had a Florida voter registration edge of 36.3 percent to the Republicans’ 35.7 percent. Non-affiliated voter percentage was 26.4, while an additional 1.7 percent of the registered universe was affiliated with a minor party recognized under the state’s election law.

Today, according to the latest available figures, 39.6 percent of Florida’s registered voters are Republicans and 31.3 percent are Democrats, while Non-affiliateds comprise 26.0 percent of the registered universe and an additional 3.0 percent are members of minor parties.

Polling in Florida, according to the Real Clear Politics Polling Archives, throughout the 2024 cycle projected President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott leading their Democratic opponents by a respective seven percent average (Trump) and five-point margin (Scott), yet Trump won by more than 13 percentage points and Scott just under 13. One reason for the big polling miss is likely a failure to properly emphasize the large voter registration shift in the Republicans’ favor.

Today, there are a larger number of registered Republicans than Democrats in 12 of the 31 party reg places. The Non-affiliated option is the top registrant in an additional 10 states, while Democrats lead in only nine, which is down three states (Florida, Kentucky, and Nevada) from the party’s standing in 2020.

The Republican majority or plurality states are: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

The Non-affiliated majorities or pluralities are: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, and Rhode Island.

Democratic Party registration is tops in: California, Delaware, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Pennsylvania. Democrats, however, hold an outright majority of registered voters in only Maryland.

The three states with the largest swing since 2020 toward Republicans are Idaho, Wyoming, and Iowa. The GOP gained a net 8.4 percentage points in Idaho, 7.4 in Wyoming, and 5 points in Iowa. The party’s biggest drop, however, came in Colorado where the GOP lost 2.7 points. The next highest losses were in Delaware (2.3 net percent) and Nevada (1.6 percent drop).

As mentioned above, Democrats lost affiliation ground in all 31 states. Their three biggest drops, all down between six and seven percentage points, occurred in West Virginia, Nevada, and Rhode Island.

The Non-affiliated gains and losses are more erratic. The Independent, Non-affiliated, or “Declined to State” category saw gains in 18 states but losses in 12 others. Louisiana does not report Non-affiliated numbers. The biggest Non-affiliated gainers were Nevada (up 9.1 net percentage points from 2020), Massachusetts (7.3), Rhode Island (5.8), and Colorado (5.4). The fact that two of the most loyal Democratic states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, are among the top gainers in Non-affiliated voter registration is another bad sign for the Democrats.

The states with the highest Non-affiliated decline are Alaska (-12.1 net percentage points in comparison with 2020), South Dakota (-9.8), and Idaho (-6.4).

Total voter registration is up in only 19 of the 31 states, meaning there are fewer registered voters today in 12 of the party registration states than in 2020.

The downturn is largely due to population loss (Connecticut; Louisiana) or states performing their proscribed registration purge. The latter process eliminates voters who have passed away, moved, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive general elections as dictated by their individual state laws.

COMMENTARY: Maine Lays Siege To Democracy, First Amendment

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Maine State Representative Laurel Libby’s (R-Auburn) situation within her state legislature should shock every American. Read about it in my latest op-ed with Jim Carter on
the Daily Caller.

Here are the first few lines of our commentary piece:

Maine State Representative Laurel Libby’s (R-Auburn) situation within her state legislature should shock every American.

Because Rep. Libby had the temerity to voice opposition on the floor of the state House of Representatives to biological men being allowed to participate in women’s sports, the House Democratic majority censured her from speaking and even voting as a duly elected member of the state House. Therefore, her 9,000 constituents in Minot and Auburn, ME, just west of Lewiston, have no voice in the legislature.
(To read more, go to DAILY CALLER)

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

GOP Loses Another Special

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 28, 2025

States

Earlier this year, Iowa Democrat Mike Zimmer made national news by flipping a Republican state Senate seat in a special election, and now another similar situation unfolded this week.

Pennsylvania Democrat James Malone won a state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

On Tuesday, Democrat James Malone won a Pennsylvania state Senate election in Lancaster County where the electorate hadn’t voted for a Democrat since Lyndon Johnson won a full presidential term back in 1964.

The question being asked is whether this is a budding trend or simply occurred because Republicans failed to turn out enough of their much larger base of conservative/right-of-center voters.

In each case, the elections were close. In Iowa, Sen. Zimmer won his seat by 338 votes (or a 3.6 percent margin from a total turnout of 9,305 voters). In Pennsylvania, Malone defeated Republican John Parsons by a similar 482 votes within a universe of 53,900 cast ballots (a margin of just under nine-tenths of one percentage point).

Neither upset victory caused the Republicans to lose their majority in the respective state Senate body, but the media is spinning the results as a rejection symptom of the national Trump agenda.

In special elections, especially after a major national vote, it is rather commonplace to see the losing party begin to rebound in low turnout balloting events. Therefore, such a pattern has certainly been witnessed before but it is not a positive story for the previous election winners, and especially this year when the two 2025 special elections were held in seats that typically vote strongly Republican.

The departing legislators in each case were Republican stalwarts. In Iowa, the 35th Senate District, which is anchored in Clinton County and hugs the Illinois border just north of the Quad Cities region, was open because the previous incumbent, Chris Cournoyer (R), was appointed Lieutenant Governor to fill a vacancy in that office.

In the Pennsylvania district that is fully contained within northern Lancaster County, the previous incumbent, Ryan Aument (R), resigned after being appointed as state director for new US Sen. David McCormick (R-PA).

Earlier, we covered the situation pertaining to the two Florida congressional elections that will be decided on Tuesday. There, the Democratic candidates in wholly Republican districts, one anchored in Pensacola and the other in Daytona Beach, have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents by a combined ratio of better than 5:1. Should an upset occur in either one of those districts, we will see a repeat performance of the media coverage regarding the two state Senate flips, but to a much greater degree.

Florida’s 1st District, from which former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) resigned, looks secure for state CFO Jimmy Patronis (R) despite him being outspent. Though Patronis does not live in the 1st CD, he is a well-known figure in the Florida Panhandle as a major restaurateur, and he has been on the ballot throughout the district as a statewide elected official.

The 6th CD, the district that National Security Advisor Mike Waltz previously represented, is also strongly Republican, but GOP candidate Randy Fine, a state Senator from Melbourne, represents a state legislative seat two CDs and a minimum of 100 miles away, which means there is no crossover representation between his Senate seat and the 6th Congressional District. Being a lesser-known candidate may make it somewhat more difficult to convince Republican voters to participate in an irregular election.

Additionally, the Wisconsin state Supreme Court race that will determine the partisan majority on that high court and could have congressional redistricting ramifications, will also be decided Tuesday.

Here, Dane County Circuit Court Judge Susan Crawford (D) has raised more than $26 million for her statewide campaign, almost double the total of her opponent, Republican former state Attorney General Brad Schimel. Elon Musk has come to Schimel’s rescue to largely even the score on the airwaves. Therefore, this will be another important race to watch on April 1. Though the judicial races are nonpartisan, this campaign has been fought on very partisan grounds.

It appears that Tuesday’s election will carry more national significance than one might have originally guessed.

New Hampshire May Follow Maine & Nebraska’s Electoral Vote Model

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2025

States

New Hampshire Congressional Districts

Republican legislative leaders in New Hampshire are floating a bill that would change the Granite State’s electoral vote apportionment formula to one modeled after the systems in Maine and Nebraska.

There, instead of a winner-take-all system to award all of the state’s electoral votes to the winning statewide popular vote general election presidential candidate, the Maine and Nebraska process awards two electoral votes for the statewide victor and one each to the candidate carrying each of the state’s congressional districts. Maine has two CDs, and Nebraska three.

During the Trump era, we have seen splits in both states routinely occur. Trump carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his presidential runs, thus capturing one electoral vote from the state’s total of four even though his opponents claimed the statewide tally. In Nebraska during the past two elections, Democratic nominees Joe Biden and Kamala Harris each clinched the state’s 2nd CD, thus awarding them one electoral vote of the domain’s five.

Because of the system, much greater attention has been paid to those two states, and the effect of a wayward congressional district throwing the national election into a tie during a close national contest has certainly become an enhanced scenario.

The added attention has certainly brought more advertising dollars and campaign expenditures to both Maine and Nebraska. Without the congressional district apportionment system, little attention would have been paid to Nebraska since it is a reliable Republican state, and a great deal less would have been spent in Maine because the state has a consistent Democratic voting history.

New Hampshire is different. Already regarded as a state in play during the most recent presidential elections, going to the congressional district apportionment system would likely enhance its importance.

Since the turn of the century, New Hampshire has voted for the Democratic nominee in six of the seven presidential contests, but the average spread between the two major party candidates in the respective years has been only 4.4 percentage points. In Trump’s three elections, he lost New Hampshire by an average of 3.4 percent.

In the particular elections from 2008 through 2020, the Democratic winner carried both of New Hampshire’s congressional districts with the exception of 2016 when Trump topped Hillary Clinton in the state’s eastern 1st CD. Therefore, in most of the 21st Century elections, the apportionment system would not have changed the national electoral vote matrix. The margins, however, in each of the districts have been close.

The 2024 presidential election totals for New Hampshire’s districts have not yet been published, but it is likely that Harris carried both CDs. She defeated Trump by a 50.7 – 47.9 percent statewide margin, and while the spread is close it is likely enough to see her prevail in both the 1st and 2nd CDs. Further evidence of such is revealed through the Democratic congressional candidates carrying both districts.

Republicans have large majorities in both New Hampshire legislative chambers, 221-177-1 with one vacancy in the House and 16-8 in the state Senate. Sen. Bill Gannon (R-Sandown) is sponsoring the electoral vote apportionment bill. As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, the bill has a strong chance of moving out of his committee to the floor with a positive recommendation. Considering the Republicans strong majorities in both houses and with leadership support, the bill has a good chance of becoming law.

Should the proposal become law, it would take effect in the 2028 presidential election. Since the recent presidential elections have all been close, New Hampshire changing to a congressional district apportionment system could well have an interesting impact upon many future national campaigns.

One More Race to Go; Miller-Meeks Clinches Victory; Rep. Seth Moulton Under Fire; Alaska Ranked Choice Vote Recount Ordered

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 4, 2024

House

California Assemblyman Adam Gray

CA-13: Race Down to 143 Votes — The agonizingly slow vote counting process in northern California’s 13th Congressional District continues to produce new totals. Now, Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) has rebounded slightly and trails former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) by just 143 votes. Officials continue to add votes to the aggregate, so it is difficult to say when this contest will be ruled final.

It is now likely, however, that Gray will hold the lead and convert the seat to the Democratic column. It is also probable that should the margin remain this small that a recount will soon follow. If Gray wins, the final House count will be 220R – 215D in a full chamber. When the three Republican vacancies open due to Trump Administration appointments and resignation, the count will drop to 217-215.

IA-1: Rep. Miller-Meeks (R) Clinches Victory — The recount in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District is now complete and the final result ended as expected. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) has now officially won a third term. The recount, requested by opponent Christina Bohannan (D), changed the original vote total by just four votes. Instead of Miller-Meeks winning by 802 votes, the official total will now be adjusted to a 798-vote margin. Interestingly, this is not the closest election of the congresswoman’s career. Her initial victory spread in 2020 was only six votes, so this 798 vote win is a landslide in comparison.

MA-6: Rep. Moulton’s (D) Potential Primary — Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) has been under fire from the far left of his party over comments he made criticizing the practice of allowing biological males to participate in female athletics. The firestorm has caused a possible 2026 Democratic primary opponent to come forward.

Dan Koh, who was chief of staff to former Boston mayor and US Labor Secretary Marty Walsh (D), lost a 3rd District Democratic primary by just 145 votes in 2018 (to current Rep. Lori Trahan) but then rebounded to win a town supervisors race in the Andover locality. Koh was quoted saying he is considering launching a Democratic primary challenge to Rep. Moulton in 2026.

Moulton was first elected in 2014 when he defeated then-Congressman John Tierney in the Democratic primary. He has easily been renominated and re-elected in every succeeding election. In the 2024 cycle, Rep. Moulton faced only write-in candidates in both his primary and general election campaigns. The congressman will be favored in the next election regardless of who opposes him.

States

Alaska: Ranked Choice Recount Ordered — Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who is Alaska’s chief elections officer, has indicated that she will order a recount for the very tight Ranked Choice Voting repeal ballot initiative. By just 664 votes, a small majority of the electorate fought back an effort to squelch the state’s Top Four/Ranked Choice Voting primary system that was adopted in 2020.

A total of 320,574 ballots were cast in the election and the vote opposing repeal was 50.1 percent while those favoring repeal recorded 49.9 percent. The vote total is close enough where the recount could conceivably change the outcome.