Category Archives: Polling

Senate: The Latest Polling Numbers

1200px-Seal_of_the_United_States_Senate.svgBy Jim Ellis

Nov. 5, 2018 — The pollsters are publishing their final pre-election studies, and here’s were the tightest, top Senate races stand:


ARIZONA

Rep. Martha McSally (R) vs. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D)
• Fox News (Oct. 27-29; 643 likely Arizona voters)
McSally 46; Sinema 46
• SSRS for CNN (Oct. 24-29; 702 likely Arizona voters)
Sinema 51; McSally 47
• OH Predictive Insights for ABC Channel 15 (Oct. 22-23; 600 likely Arizona voters)
McSally 52; Sinema 45


FLORIDA

Sen. Bill Nelson (D) vs. Gov. Rick Scott (R)
• Cygnal (Oct. 27-29; 495 likely Florida voters)
Nelson 50; Scott 48
• SSRS for CNN (Oct. 24-29; 781 likely Florida voters)
Nelson 49; Scott 47
• St. Pete Polls (Oct. 30-31; 2,470 likely Florida voters, automated)
Nelson 49; Scott 47
• Trafalgar Group (Oct. 29-30; 2,543 likely Florida voters, automated)
Nelson 49; Scott 47


INDIANA

Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) vs. Mike Braun (R)
• Fox News (Oct. 27-30; 722 likely Indiana voters)
Donnelly 45; Braun 38
• NBC News/Marist College (Oct. 24-28; 496 likely Indiana voters)
Donnelly 43; Braun 40
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“Blue Wave” Absent in Arizona Races

By Jim Ellis

L-R -- Arizona Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

From left to right, Arizona Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson)

Nov. 2, 2018 — It was always believed that the Grand Canyon State’s open Senate race between Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) and Martha McSally (R-Tucson) would be one of the best campaigns in the country, and no one should be disappointed.

As we approach Election Day, differing indicators have presented themselves regarding who might win this toss-up campaign. Five polls have been released covering the period between Oct. 23-29. Three of the five give Rep. Sinema a slight lead, while one projects a tie.

YouGov/CBS News (Oct. 23-26; 972 likely Arizona voters) and Marist College/NBC News (Oct. 23-27; 506 likely Arizona voters) both post the Democratic nominee to identical 47-44 percent leads. CNN/SSRS (Oct. 24-29; 702 likely Arizona voters) finds Sinema’s edge to be 51-47 percent. But HighGround Public Affairs (Oct. 26-28; 400 likely Arizona voters) sees Rep. McSally ahead, 47-45 percent. Fox News (Oct. 27-29; 643 likely Arizona voters) came to a third conclusion, a 46-46 percent tie.

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Ohio: Contrasting Polls

By Jim Ellis

state-of-ohio-mapNov. 1, 2018 — The Buckeye State of Ohio is viewed as one of the country’s quintessential swing states. In 2016, however, the state exceeded polling and even Republican expectations in their presidential vote, as President Trump won a decisive 52-44 percent victory over Hillary Clinton.

Some suggested the Trump vote was an indication that the state could be moving more definitively to the political right, but new surveys suggest the Buckeye electorate is returning to its previous swing vote history.

Still, Ohio proves a reliable national political barometer. In both 2008 and 2012, the electorate here voted for President Obama after twice after backing President George W. Bush in his two elections. The state previously favored President Bill Clinton in his two successful national campaigns. In fact, the last time Ohioans failed to vote for the winning presidential candidate came in 1960 when the state awarded its electoral votes to Republican Richard Nixon in his national losing effort against John F. Kennedy.

Two new polls were released this week that paint different pictures of the Ohio electorate’s current state. Some of the results are curious to the point of questioning the polling reliability or not being able to adequately determine how the governor’s race will end and failing to understand the wide discrepancy in US Senate polling projections.

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A Polling Trifecta in 3 Key Races:
Indiana, Florida, Arizona

By Jim Ellis

CBS-YouGov-polling-senate-racesOct. 30, 2018 — CBS News/YouGov just published new numbers from three key Senate races, all conducted late last week during the Oct. 23-26 period, that largely confirm recent trends.

The Indiana race has seemingly turned toward Republican challenger Mike Braun in recent days, and the CBS/YouGov poll confirms the new direction. According to their poll (975 likely voters, online), Braun holds a 46-43 percent lead over Sen. Joe Donnelly (D). This is wholly consistent with other polling conducted since Oct. 14.

As we reported last week, Mason Strategies (Oct. 15-20; 600 likely Indiana voters) finds Braun up by an almost identical 47-43 percent margin, while American Viewpoint in polling for the Braun campaign (Oct. 14-17; 800 likely Indiana voters) sees a 44-40 percent spread.

CBS/YouGov then surveyed, as so many others have done recently, the Florida Senate race. After Sen. Bill Nelson (D) went ahead beyond the margin of error over Gov. Rick Scott (R) in a pair of polls, two more studies turned in the latter man’s favor. Then, St. Leo University (Oct. 16-22; 698 likely Florida voters), Strategic Research Associates (Oct. 16-23; 800 likely Florida voters), and Gravis Marketing (Oct. 22-23; 773 likely Florida voters) all saw Sen. Nelson rebounding with an advantage of nine, one, and four points, respectively.

But, CBS/YouGov finds the race returning to parity. Their results, from a pool of 991 randomly selected and weighted online respondents, peg the race as a flat tie, at 46 percent apiece.

The national media/polling partnership also tested the tight Arizona Senate race. Here, CBS/YouGov (972 likely voters) finds US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) re-claiming an edge over Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) by a 47-44 percent clip.

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The Governors’ Races & Veto Power

By Jim Ellis

2018-elections-open-seats-185Oct. 29, 2018 — The 2018 election cycle features 36 gubernatorial campaigns, 26 of which have federal redistricting ramifications. The ones that don’t are at-large congressional district states (Alaska, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming) or will be after the next reapportionment (Rhode Island), those that employ redistricting commissions (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho), or the multi-district state where the governor is only awarded a two-year term (New Hampshire).

Here is a breakdown of where things stand in the upcoming election in the 26 states where the governor will have redistricting veto power:


PURE TOSS UPS

FLORIDA: Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) vs. Ex-US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R)
• Most Recent Polls: Gravis Marketing (Oct. 22-23): Gillum 51 percent, DeSantis 46 percent
   Gray/Strategic Research (Oct. 16-23): DeSantis 48 percent; Gillum 45 percent

GEORGIA: Sec/State Brian Kemp (R) vs. Ex-state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D)
• Most Recent Poll: NBC News/Marist (Oct. 14-18): Kemp 49 percent; Abrams 47 percent

IOWA: Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) vs. Businessman Fred Hubbell (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Selzer & Co (Sept. 17-20): Hubbell 43 percent; Reynolds 41 percent

KANSAS: Sec of State Kris Kobach (R) vs. State Rep. Laura Kelly (D) & Greg Orman (I)
• Recent Poll: Public Policy Polling (Oct. 19-20): Kobach 41 percent; Kelly 41 percent; Orman 10 percent

NEVADA: Attorney Gen Adam Laxalt (R) vs. Commissioner Steve Sisolak (D)
• Most Recent Poll: Emerson College (Oct. 10-12): Laxalt 46 percent; Sisolak 41 percent

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