Tag Archives: Democratic National Committee

Tennessee Primary Results; DNC Presidential Nomination Vote Begins; New Candidate in FL-2; New Hampshire Governor’s Race Polling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 2, 2024

States

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Tennessee: Primary Results — Volunteer State voters went to the polls yesterday and performed as one would have expected. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) scored a 90 percent victory over her minor Republican opponent and swept all 95 of the state’s counties. Heading into the November election, Sen. Blackburn is a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Four Democrats were vying for their party nomination, and state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville) easily won the primary contest with 70 percent of the partisan vote. Johnson is one of the House members who participated in a state capitol rally for gun control that resulted in two other members being expelled from the legislature.

The most competitive race on the ballot comes in the Nashville anchored 5th Congressional District where Davidson County Metro Councilwoman Courtney Johnston (R) challenged freshman US Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Columbia) but fell considerably short of victory. Slightly out-fundraising the congressman and having double the outside financial support (approximately $700,000 to $350,000), Rep. Ogles was able to prevail with a 56-44 percent vote spread.

Ogles recorded big margins in the outlying rural counties, and held his own in Davidson County, which contains the city of Nashville. Clearly, the charges of him falsifying his background and not paying property taxes when he was a local government official had little bearing on the race. In a 5th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+15, Rep. Ogles now becomes a prohibitive favorite against Democratic economic development consultant Maryam Abolfazli.

In other races, both Reps. Scott DesJarlais (R-Sherwood) and Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) broke the 70 percent figure with easy wins over minor opponents.

President

DNC: Presidential Nomination Vote Begins — As expected, the Democratic National Committee, in advance of convening their national convention in Chicago beginning Aug. 19, are today beginning their official virtual roll call to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s national nominee. The delegate vote is expected to consume several days, but Harris will likely officially become the party standard bearer early next week.

House

FL-2: Dems Choose New Nominee — After long-shot Democratic congressional candidate Meghann Hovey dropped her bid to challenge Rep. Neal Dunn (R-Panama City), the local Democratic committees agreed to put forward the name of attorney Yen Bailey as the party’s replacement candidate. The Florida primary is not until Aug. 20, but because Hovey notified the election authorities of her decision to leave the race when she did, the local party apparatus had a chance to add another name to the primary ballot.

North Florida’s 2nd District is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+16. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat four years ago with a whopping 67-32 percent victory margin. In 2022, Rep. Dunn defeated fellow Congressman Al Lawson (D) by a 60-40 percent margin after the two members were placed in the same district post-redistricting. The 2nd District contains all or part of 16 counties stretching from Panama City and through the Apalachicola, Tallahassee, and Perry communities within the Florida panhandle. Rep. Dunn is a sure bet for re-election in November.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte, Craig Lead R and D Primary Voting — Emerson College tested the New Hampshire electorate in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election. The poll results (July 26-28; 1,000 registered New Hampshire voters; 433 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters; 421 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) found former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading ex-state Senate President Chuck Morse, 41-26 percent for the open Republican gubernatorial nomination.

On the Democratic side, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig has a 33-21 percent advantage over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The two primary winners will square off in November to succeed retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R).

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Presidential Primary Plans in Flux; NV-1 2022 Candidate Files Again;
VA-4 Special Updates;
Gov. Baker Goes to NCAA

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 19, 2022

President

Primary Schedule: Push-Back Could Change Announced Plan — Apparently, the Democrats haven’t quite settled on the 2024 primary schedule due to objections from certain party leaders about South Carolina being moved to the number one position. Last week, President Biden made a specific schedule change suggestion involving several states that the initial Democratic National Committee policy panel approved. The plan called for South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia, and Michigan, in that order, being allowed to host primary elections prior to a larger number of states voting on Super Tuesday in early March.

Now, it appears that a move potentially involving Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina ultimately becoming the first state on the Democratic calendar could potentially alter the not-yet-adopted presidential primary voting schedule. Therefore, while it looked as if the Biden suggestions were headed for full DNC adoption, that might not prove to be the final decision. Stay tuned.

House

NV-1: Challenger Files 2024 Committee — Businessman Mark Robertson (R), who lost to Rep. Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas) by a 52-46 percent count in November, has filed a new congressional committee for 2024. Robertson’s action does not mean he is committed to running again, but certainly leaves the door open for a seamless transition into another campaign. Short-term, it provides a legal fundraising vehicle.

Redistricting changed the 1st District from a D+22 seat, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, to its current D+4, thus making it a competitive CD for the next several elections. Whether Robertson again becomes an official candidate or not, Rep. Titus can expect another competitive challenge coming her way in 2024.

VA-4: Democrat Drops Out — Approaching the quickly called Dec. 20 firehouse special election primary, where only five polling stations are open throughout the sprawling district that stretches from Richmond to the North Carolina border, state Delegate Lamont Bagby (D-Richmond), one of the leading candidates, withdrew from the race and endorsed state Sen. Jennifer McClellan (D-Richmond). She now appears as the party leaders’ selected choice.

Republicans voted in their firehouse primary Saturday. The scheduled Feb. 21 special congressional election is on the ballot to replace the late Congressman Donald McEachin (D-Richmond).

States

Massachusetts: Gov. Baker in Line for New Position — Outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R) has accepted a new position that takes him both out of politics and the private business sector. Beginning in March, he will become the new President of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA).

Now that football is administered through the College Football Association, the NCAA has much less influence over the domain of college athletics. His biggest challenge in this new position is making sure the organization does not lose control over the annual national college basketball tournament, which is currently the NCAA’s largest event.

Republican Youngkin Notches First Lead in Virginia Gubernatorial Race

By Jim Ellis

Republican Glenn Youngkin, Virginia candidate for governor

Sept. 24, 2021 — A new University of Mary Washington survey (conducted by Research America, Sept. 7-13; 1,000 total sample 528 likely Virginia gubernatorial election voters, live interview & online) finds Republican Glenn Youngkin (R) leading former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D), 48-43 percent, but there are caveats.

While virtually every poll has projected the two candidates recording support percentages in the 40s, this is the first that found the ex-governor and former Democratic National Committee chairman trailing. Two other surveys were also released yesterday, and both of them find results consistent with other pollsters that place both candidates in the 40s, but with McAuliffe holding the advantage.

KAConsulting (Sept. 17-19; 700 likely Virginia voters, live interview), polling for the Presidential Coalition, found McAuliffe topping Youngkin, 46-42 percent. Public Policy Polling (Sept. 17-18; 875 Virginia voters, interactive voice response system) derived an almost identical 45-42 percent McAuliffe ballot test result during a simultaneous time realm.

The Mary Washington study may well be an outlier. While the 48-43 percent margin comes from those describing themselves as likely voters in the Nov. 2 election, when responses from all 1,000 sampled individuals are recorded, the ballot test flips to 43-38 percent in favor of McAuliffe. It is not unusual to see differences when screening for likely voters versus the universe as a whole, but detecting a ten-point swing affecting just one candidate – you will notice McAuliffe scores 43 percent within both groups – raises methodological questions.

The poll becomes even more suspect when seeing that the candidates in the other statewide races, lieutenant governor and attorney general, produce no such GOP swing. In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Republican Winsome Sears has a 47-41 percent lead over Democrat Hala Ayala among likely voters, but the two are dead even at 38 percent support when all respondents are added to the ballot test matrix.

In the AG’s campaign among likely voters, Republican Jason Miyares holds a 46-42 percent edge over incumbent Democrat Mark Herring, but the race flips to 40-37 percent in the attorney general’s favor when all respondents are questioned.

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Nevada’s Harry Reid Re-Emerges

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 5, 2021 — Former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is no longer in elective office, but it appears he’s still active in politics. Now, Reid has a new cause: making Nevada the first-in-the-nation presidential nomination contest.

Former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (D-NV)

Reports suggest that the former party leader is lobbying Democratic officials to change the order of nomination voting. As we know, Iowa is the first caucus state to vote, followed by the New Hampshire primary. The Nevada caucus then follows, and then onto the South Carolina primary before Super Tuesday voting commences.

Reid, and others, are arguing that neither Iowa nor New Hampshire are representative of the core Democratic Party, and therefore should not receive the undue attention from being scheduled as the first caucus and primary despite tradition yielding such.

He points out that in 2020 the Iowa caucus system became colluded and poorly administered thus leading to a situation that even today it is unclear as to who actually won the caucus vote. While Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) received the most votes, it was former South Bend mayor and now US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who came away with the most delegates.

In New Hampshire, Reid contends that the eventual nominee, and of course general election winner, Joe Biden, placed fifth in the Granite State Democratic primary before his candidacy was rescued with a big primary win in South Carolina. He fails to mention, however, that Biden also lost Nevada, coming in a poor second to Sen. Sanders (40-19 percent) and just ahead of Buttigieg’s 17 percent.

Since 1952, there have been 13 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primaries in races that did not involve a party incumbent. In only five of those campaigns did the Granite State voters back the eventual party nominee. The last time the state chose a nominee who went onto win an open or challenge race for the Presidency occurred in 1976. In that year, Jimmy Carter won the New Hampshire primary, and then proceeded to unseat then-President Gerald Ford in a close general election.

In reality, however, South Carolina may actually have the best argument about moving into the first primary position. The South Carolina presidential primary system began in 1988. Since then, the state has hosted seven such Democratic elections where no president of their party was seeking re-election. In its history, the eventual party nominee has won five of the seven Palmetto State presidential primaries.

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Delegate Reallocation
Brings Increase to 4,750

By Jim Ellis

Jan. 22, 2020 — As we approach the first votes being cast for the Democratic presidential nomination next month, the Democratic National Committee has reallocated delegate slots among certain state contingents, thus increasing the size of the overall delegate universe to 4,750.

The changes are relatively substantial within the states when compared to the last national convention in 2016, while the recent Super Delegate total sees an increase of five new votes. The alterations within the state counts — an increase in every affected place but California — feature an additional 210 delegate votes when compared with the totals from four years ago.

Most of the boosts reflect a reward for increased Democratic votes in the 2016 and 2018 elections. The calculations include results in the recent races for president, US Senate, US House, governor, and for state legislature. States that hold their presidential nominating event after April 1 are also rewarded.

The largest increases are found in New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey where their respective delegations have grown by 50, 33, and 19 slots respectively, largely due to Democratic gains in the US House and state legislatures particularly from the 2018 elections. New Jersey, for example, converted a governor’s chair to the Democratic column in their 2019 election, after gaining five congressional seats in 2018 and ‘16, thus accounting for their delegation increase. And, all three states vote after April 1.

California’s regular delegate total has been reduced by one vote, possibly for moving their previous June primary to before April 1, on Super Tuesday, March 3. The state still has, by far, the largest contingent with 494 total delegates and 415 of those voting on the first ballot. The next largest delegation, after calculating their increase, is New York with 320 overall delegate slots, 274 of which are eligible to cast first-ballot votes.

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Sanders, Steyer With Momentum

By Jim Ellis

2020 presidential candidate, Tom Steyer

Jan. 14, 2020 — For the first time in this Democratic primary cycle, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has taken the lead in an Iowa Caucus poll, while billionaire Tom Steyer is moving into contention in both Nevada and South Carolina.

Several surveys released on Friday point to these conclusions. In Iowa, Selzer & Company, polling for the Des Moines Register newspaper and Mediacom (Jan. 2-8; 701 likely Iowa Democratic primary voters) finds Sen. Sanders taking a 20-17-16-15 percent slight edge over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Vice President Joe Biden. The close results suggest that all four of these contenders are in position to qualify for the all-important delegate apportionment.

Des Moines based Selzer & Company has long been considered the polling industry standard for the Iowa electorate. According to their analysis, Sen. Sanders has the most committed support, and is in the best position to deliver his supporters to the individual caucus meetings on Feb. 3, which will translate into committed delegate votes.

The Selzer poll produces similar results to other pollsters in that the top four contenders are closely bunched, but the rest find a different leader. Instead of Sen. Sanders, most have recently found Mayor Buttigieg holding first position. All, however, suggest the top four finishers will likely qualify to split the 41 first ballot votes that the Democratic National Committee allots to Iowa.

Fox News conducted a series of research studies in Nevada, South Carolina, and Wisconsin over the Jan. 5-8 period and, in the two early states, Steyer has moved into a third place Nevada tie with Sen. Warren and is in sole possession of second place in South Carolina.

The Fox News Nevada poll (Jan. 5-8; 635 likely Nevada Democratic caucus attenders) gives Biden the overall edge in recording 23 percent, Sanders follows at 17 percent, and Steyer and Warren are tied with 12 percent.

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